Articles | Volume 20, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9491-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9491-2020
Research article
 | 
13 Aug 2020
Research article |  | 13 Aug 2020

Robust observational constraint of uncertain aerosol processes and emissions in a climate model and the effect on aerosol radiative forcing

Jill S. Johnson, Leighton A. Regayre, Masaru Yoshioka, Kirsty J. Pringle, Steven T. Turnock, Jo Browse, David M. H. Sexton, John W. Rostron, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Daniel G. Partridge, Dantong Liu, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Aijun Ding, David D. Cohen, Armand Atanacio, Ville Vakkari, Eija Asmi, and Ken S. Carslaw

Related authors

Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing
Leighton A. Regayre, Lucia Deaconu, Daniel P. Grosvenor, David M. H. Sexton, Christopher Symonds, Tom Langton, Duncan Watson-Paris, Jane P. Mulcahy, Kirsty J. Pringle, Mark Richardson, Jill S. Johnson, John W. Rostron, Hamish Gordon, Grenville Lister, Philip Stier, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8749–8768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Simulating organic aerosol in Delhi with WRF-Chem using the volatility-basis-set approach: exploring model uncertainty with a Gaussian process emulator
Ernesto Reyes-Villegas, Douglas Lowe, Jill S. Johnson, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Eoghan Darbyshire, Michael Flynn, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Ying Chen, Oliver Wild, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Alex Archibald, Siddhartha Singh, Manish Shrivastava, Rahul A. Zaveri, Vikas Singh, Gufran Beig, Ranjeet Sokhi, and Gordon McFiggans
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5763–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5763-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5763-2023, 2023
Short summary
Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing
Leighton A. Regayre, Lucia Deaconu, Daniel P. Grosvenor, David Sexton, Christopher C. Symonds, Tom Langton, Duncan Watson-Paris, Jane P. Mulcahy, Kirsty J. Pringle, Mark Richardson, Jill S. Johnson, John Rostron, Hamish Gordon, Grenville Lister, Philip Stier, and Ken S. Carslaw
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1330,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1330, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Model emulation to understand the joint effects of ice-nucleating particles and secondary ice production on deep convective anvil cirrus
Rachel E. Hawker, Annette K. Miltenberger, Jill S. Johnson, Jonathan M. Wilkinson, Adrian A. Hill, Ben J. Shipway, Paul R. Field, Benjamin J. Murray, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17315–17343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17315-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17315-2021, 2021
Short summary
A global model perturbed parameter ensemble study of secondary organic aerosol formation
Kamalika Sengupta, Kirsty Pringle, Jill S. Johnson, Carly Reddington, Jo Browse, Catherine E. Scott, and Ken Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2693–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2693-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2693-2021, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Modeling impacts of dust mineralogy on fast climate response
Qianqian Song, Paul Ginoux, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Ron L. Miller, Vincenzo Obiso, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7421–7446, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7421-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7421-2024, 2024
Short summary
Uncertainties in laboratory-measured shortwave refractive indices of mineral dust aerosols and derived optical properties: a theoretical assessment
Senyi Kong, Zheng Wang, and Lei Bi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6911–6935, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6911-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6911-2024, 2024
Short summary
Diagnosing uncertainties in global biomass burning emission inventories and their impact on modeled air pollutants
Wenxuan Hua, Sijia Lou, Xin Huang, Lian Xue, Ke Ding, Zilin Wang, and Aijun Ding
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6787–6807, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6787-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6787-2024, 2024
Short summary
Role of atmospheric aerosols in severe winter fog over the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India: a case study
Chandrakala Bharali, Mary Barth, Rajesh Kumar, Sachin D. Ghude, Vinayak Sinha, and Baerbel Sinha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6635–6662, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6635-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Long-term variability in black carbon emissions constrained by gap-filled absorption aerosol optical depth and associated premature mortality in China
Wenxin Zhao, Yu Zhao, Yu Zheng, Dong Chen, Jinyuan Xin, Kaitao Li, Huizheng Che, Zhengqiang Li, Mingrui Ma, and Yun Hang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6593–6612, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6593-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6593-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Alfarra, M. R., Coe, H., Allan, J. D., Bower, K. N., Boudries, H., Canagaratna, M. R., Jimenez, J. L., Jayne, J. T., Garforth, A. A., Li, S.-M., and Worsnop, D. R.: Characterization of urban and rural organic particulate in the Lower Fraser Valley using two Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometers, Atmos. Environ., 38, 5745–5758, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.01.054, 2004. 
Allan, J. D., Jimenez, J. L., Williams, P. I., Alfarra, M. R., Bower, K. N., Jayne, J. T., Coe, H., and Worsnop, D. R.: Quantitative sampling using an Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer 1. Techniques of data interpretation and error analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4090, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002358, 2003a. 
Allan, J. D., Alfarra, M. R., Bower, K. N., Williams, P. I., Gallagher, M. W., Jimenez, J. L., McDonald, A. G., Nemitz, E., Canagaratna, M. R., Jayne, J. T., Coe, H., and Worsnop, D. R.: Quantitative sampling using an Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer 2. Measurements of fine particulate chemical composition in two U.K. cities, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4091, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002359, 2003b. 
Allan, J. D., Alfarra, M. R., Bower, K. N., Coe, H., Jayne, J. T., Worsnop, D. R., Aalto, P. P., Kulmala, M., Hyötyläinen, T., Cavalli, F., and Laaksonen, A.: Size and composition measurements of background aerosol and new particle growth in a Finnish forest during QUEST 2 using an Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 315–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-315-2006, 2006. 
Download
Short summary
We use over 9000 monthly aggregated grid-box measurements of aerosol to constrain the uncertainty in the HadGEM3-UKCA climate model. Measurements of AOD, PM2.5, particle number concentrations, sulfate and organic mass concentrations are compared to 1 million variants of the model using an implausibility metric. Despite many compensating effects in the model, the procedure constrains the probability distributions of many parameters, and direct radiative forcing uncertainty is reduced by 34 %.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint