Articles | Volume 20, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9491-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9491-2020
Research article
 | 
13 Aug 2020
Research article |  | 13 Aug 2020

Robust observational constraint of uncertain aerosol processes and emissions in a climate model and the effect on aerosol radiative forcing

Jill S. Johnson, Leighton A. Regayre, Masaru Yoshioka, Kirsty J. Pringle, Steven T. Turnock, Jo Browse, David M. H. Sexton, John W. Rostron, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Daniel G. Partridge, Dantong Liu, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Aijun Ding, David D. Cohen, Armand Atanacio, Ville Vakkari, Eija Asmi, and Ken S. Carslaw

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Cited articles

Alfarra, M. R., Coe, H., Allan, J. D., Bower, K. N., Boudries, H., Canagaratna, M. R., Jimenez, J. L., Jayne, J. T., Garforth, A. A., Li, S.-M., and Worsnop, D. R.: Characterization of urban and rural organic particulate in the Lower Fraser Valley using two Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometers, Atmos. Environ., 38, 5745–5758, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.01.054, 2004. 
Allan, J. D., Jimenez, J. L., Williams, P. I., Alfarra, M. R., Bower, K. N., Jayne, J. T., Coe, H., and Worsnop, D. R.: Quantitative sampling using an Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer 1. Techniques of data interpretation and error analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4090, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002358, 2003a. 
Allan, J. D., Alfarra, M. R., Bower, K. N., Williams, P. I., Gallagher, M. W., Jimenez, J. L., McDonald, A. G., Nemitz, E., Canagaratna, M. R., Jayne, J. T., Coe, H., and Worsnop, D. R.: Quantitative sampling using an Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer 2. Measurements of fine particulate chemical composition in two U.K. cities, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4091, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002359, 2003b. 
Allan, J. D., Alfarra, M. R., Bower, K. N., Coe, H., Jayne, J. T., Worsnop, D. R., Aalto, P. P., Kulmala, M., Hyötyläinen, T., Cavalli, F., and Laaksonen, A.: Size and composition measurements of background aerosol and new particle growth in a Finnish forest during QUEST 2 using an Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 315–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-315-2006, 2006. 
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We use over 9000 monthly aggregated grid-box measurements of aerosol to constrain the uncertainty in the HadGEM3-UKCA climate model. Measurements of AOD, PM2.5, particle number concentrations, sulfate and organic mass concentrations are compared to 1 million variants of the model using an implausibility metric. Despite many compensating effects in the model, the procedure constrains the probability distributions of many parameters, and direct radiative forcing uncertainty is reduced by 34 %.
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