Robust observational constraint of uncertain aerosol processes and emissions in a climate model and the effect on aerosol radiative forcing

Johnson, Jill S.; Regayre, Leighton A.; Yoshioka, Masaru; Pringle, Kirsty J.; Turnock, Steven T.; Browse, Jo; Sexton, David M. H.; Rostron, John W.; Schutgens, Nick A. J.; Partridge, Daniel G.; Liu, Dantong; Allan, James D.; Coe, Hugh; Ding, Aijun; Cohen, David D.; Atanacio, Armand; Vakkari, Ville; Asmi, Eija; Carslaw, Ken S.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9491-2020

Articles | Volume 20, issue 15

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9491-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9491-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 15

Research article

|

13 Aug 2020

Research article |

| 13 Aug 2020

Robust observational constraint of uncertain aerosol processes and emissions in a climate model and the effect on aerosol radiative forcing

Jill S. Johnson, Leighton A. Regayre, Masaru Yoshioka, Kirsty J. Pringle, Steven T. Turnock, Jo Browse, David M. H. Sexton, John W. Rostron, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Daniel G. Partridge, Dantong Liu, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Aijun Ding, David D. Cohen, Armand Atanacio, Ville Vakkari, Eija Asmi, and Ken S. Carslaw

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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RC1: 'review', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Dec 2019
RC2: 'Reviewer comments on "Robust observational constraint of uncertain aerosol processes and emissions in a climate model and the effect on aerosol radiative forcing"', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 May 2020
AC1: 'Response to reviewer comments', Jill Johnson, 22 Jun 2020

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Jill Johnson on behalf of the Authors (23 Jun 2020) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (28 Jun 2020) by Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero

AR by Jill Johnson on behalf of the Authors (02 Jul 2020)

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Short summary

We use over 9000 monthly aggregated grid-box measurements of aerosol to constrain the uncertainty in the HadGEM3-UKCA climate model. Measurements of AOD, PM_2.5, particle number concentrations, sulfate and organic mass concentrations are compared to 1 million variants of the model using an implausibility metric. Despite many compensating effects in the model, the procedure constrains the probability distributions of many parameters, and direct radiative forcing uncertainty is reduced by 34 %.