Following the 2020 global reduction in shipping fuel sulphur, a natural experiment revealed significant changes in marine boundary layer (MBL) cloud properties over the Eastern North Atlantic. These new observations show a ~15% drop in cloud condensation nuclei, leading to fewer but larger cloud droplets. Normally, this would change how clouds reflect sunlight, but an increase in liquid water path (LWP) counteracted these effects. As a result, cloud optical depth and albedo changed very little. Simultaneous shifts in large-scale meteorology, including weaker inversion strength and increased dry air mixing, further complicated attribution of the observed cloud changes. The study suggests that overall, the cooling influence of marine boundary layer clouds seems to be weakening with implications for future climate feedbacks.

Aerosol particles emitted by ships substantially influence the microphysical properties of marine clouds. In 2020, regulatory changes led to a marked reduction in sulphur emissions, resulting in measurable decreases in cloud droplet concentrations. This study exploits a unique “accidental experiment” triggered by military conflict, which caused a rerouting of shipping traffic in the Red Sea. The authors use this event to robustly quantify how cloud droplet concentrations responded to changes in aerosol emissions associated with the changes in regulations.

Aerosols moderate climate change by modifying cloud properties to make them more reflective to sunlight, but the magnitude of the effect remains very uncertain, with important implications for future climate change. This study combines satellite observations and reanalysis data to calculate a much weaker radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions than previous studies. The implication is that aerosols may play a smaller role in climate change than has been widely supposed.

The explosive Hunga Tonga eruption in 2022 had several characteristics that are unique in the recent observational record. Its effects on the atmosphere are of great scientific interest and have included rapidly propagating patterns of Lamb and gravity waves and long-lived anomalies in stratospheric water vapour. This modelling study demonstrates how, through a coupled sequence of chemical, radiative and dynamical mechanisms, the additional water vapour in the tropical upper stratosphere is likely to have had a significant effect on the wintertime circulation of the stratosphere and hence the troposphere in Northern Hemisphere mid- and high latitudes. These results on the fascinating Hunga Tonga event have wider relevance to perturbations of the climate system where the initial impact is stratospheric but important secondary effects are felt elsewhere, including at the surface.

Our understanding of the impact of aerosol particles on deep-convective clouds is still incomplete. Earlier research found increased lightning above shipping lanes and hypothesized that the ship emissions support the development of deep-convective cloud systems. The present study investigates the effect of a sevenfold reduction in sulphur content of shipping fuel, implemented following the International Marine Organisation 2020 regulation. A significant decrease in lightning activity is found over shipping lanes in combination with a reduction of both the concentration and the size of the emitted particles, providing further evidence of a strong connection between shipping missions, deep-convective cloud development, and lightning activity. This highlights the need to resolve the still unclear acting mechanisms.

The rapid increase in global warming in 2023 has sparked fears that Earth has entered a new warm state. Possible explanations for a warming spike have included transient changes in radiative forcing or deficiencies in climate models. This study shows that the primary cause is a mode of natural climate variability – the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The authors show that, while the magnitude of global warming caused by ENSO was particularly large in 2023, it is not unprecedented in the historical record. The implication is that global warming is continuing at a steady average rate without dramatic acceleration.

The core element of climate change is the sensitivity of the Earth's climate system to the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation at the top of the atmosphere. CO2 is one of the key atmospheric parameters controlling the outgoing longwave radiation. In this paper, hyper-spectral satellite data of the outgoing long wave radiation from a decade of observations are successfully used for the first time to disentangle the radiative effect of CO2 increase from those of other relevant parameters such as temperature and water vapour variations. The paper demonstrates convincingly that the observed radiative changes agree excellently with theoretical predictions of outgoing long wave radiation changes due to the observed CO2 increase. While solely based on observations from space, these results confirm a fundamental theoretical underpinning of the science of global warming.

There is a very strong contrast between water vapor concentrations in the stratosphere (dry) and the troposphere (moist). Climate models typically represent this contrast poorly and suffer from a ‘moist bias’ in the extratropical lower stratosphere. Here two versions of a particular model, one a standard version and the other with a different transport scheme which greatly reduces the moist bias, are used to give a clear demonstration of its effect, through the radiative effects of water vapor, on the regional-scale tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere Pacific region. The authors then show that differences in moist bias explain differences in this circulation across a large set of climate models. Improvements in transport schemes and hence better representation of the troposphere-stratosphere contrast in water vapor are likely to improve important regional scale features of the tropospheric circulation.

The paper exploits recent in-situ observations of water vapour in the lower stratosphere in the StratoClim campaign which was focused on the Asian Monsoon region, accepted as very important as providing a pathway from troposphere to stratosphere for important chemical species. The paper uses trajectory modelling to argue that, whilst very large water vapour concentrations were observed in some locations, significant further dehydration is likely as the air masses are transported, over tens of days, on a spiralling path into the main body of the stratosphere. The conclusion is therefore that these large water vapour concentrations do not imply a substantial moistening of the stratosphere. There has been a long-standing debate about the role of processes on different scales, from the cloud-scale to the regional scale, in controlling stratospheric water vapour, which has an important effect on the radiative balance of the troposphere. In combining in-situ data and trajectory modelling this study should help progress towards scientific consensus on this point.

Ship tracks are enhanced regions of cloud brightness that trail behind ships that are known to be created by their effluent. They are widely used as observational test beds to deepen understanding of how pollution might affect cloud microphysical processes and climate at larger regional and global scales.  This study uses satellite observations of cloud properties and records of ship position and their effluent to assess perturbations from ship emissions on cloud droplet number and liquid water path. The study found that, as expected, the droplet number perturbation in shiptracks scales with ship emission rates of aerosol particles. Surprisingly, however, the liquid water path in drizzling clouds increased by an amount that was nearly fixed. The observation points to novel non-linear threshold behaviours of relevance to representations of aerosol indirect effects in climate models.

In 2020, a new international law was imposed that placed strong restrictions on sulfur emissions from the international shipping industry. In addition to reducing air pollution, an anticipated side effect was reduction of the climate cooling effect that is often associated with "ship-tracks". Aerosol pollutant emissions from ships, when they rise into overlying clouds, lead to higher cloud droplet number concentrations, smaller cloud droplet sizes, and clouds that are more reflective to incoming sunlight, easily seen in satellite imagery as long bright lines downwind of ships. Past studies into whether the new law has led to darker clouds have been equivocal. For this study, the authors used sophisticated statistical techniques to compare cloud droplet size and reflectivity before and after the law was implemented focusing on a shipping corridor in the southeast Atlantic. They found strong evidence that droplet sizes have indeed increased, and that clouds have darkened with a significant local climate warming. Globally, the impact is much smaller, but may still represent an important consideration for assessments of the total summed effect of aerosols on climate.