Articles | Volume 13, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 May 2013
Research article |
| 27 May 2013
Preindustrial to present-day changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)
V. Naik
UCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
A. Voulgarakis
Department of Physics, Imperial College, London, UK
A. M. Fiore
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
L. W. Horowitz
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
J.-F. Lamarque
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, New Jersey, USA
M. J. Prather
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
P. J. Young
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA
now at: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
D. Bergmann
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA
P. J. Cameron-Smith
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA
I. Cionni
Agenzia nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, l'energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile (ENEA), Bologna, Italy
W. J. Collins
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Office, Exeter, UK
now at: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
S. B. Dalsøren
CICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo, Oslo, Norway
R. Doherty
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
V. Eyring
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
G. Faluvegi
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, New York, USA
G. A. Folberth
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Office, Exeter, UK
B. Josse
GAME/CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS – Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Toulouse, France
Y. H. Lee
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, New York, USA
I. A. MacKenzie
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
T. Nagashima
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki, Japan
T. P. C. van Noije
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, the Netherlands
D. A. Plummer
Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
S. T. Rumbold
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Office, Exeter, UK
CICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo, Oslo, Norway
D. T. Shindell
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, New York, USA
D. S. Stevenson
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
S. Strode
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA and Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA
Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/CEA/CNRS/UVSQ/IPSL, France
G. Zeng
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand
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Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
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David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Simone Tilmes, Guang Zeng, Lee T. Murray, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Sungbo Shim, Larry W. Horowitz, Lori T. Sentman, and Louisa Emmons
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
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Jian He, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Ed Dlugokencky, and Kirk Thoning
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Bing Pu, Paul Ginoux, Huan Guo, N. Christina Hsu, John Kimball, Beatrice Marticorena, Sergey Malyshev, Vaishali Naik, Norman T. O'Neill, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Juliette Paireau, Joseph M. Prospero, Elena Shevliakova, and Ming Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 55–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-55-2020, 2020
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Dust emission initiates when surface wind velocities exceed a threshold depending on soil and surface characteristics and varying spatially and temporally. Climate models widely use wind erosion thresholds. The climatological monthly global distribution of the wind erosion threshold, Vthreshold, is retrieved using satellite and reanalysis products and improves the simulation of dust frequency, magnitude, and the seasonal cycle in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land–atmosphere model.
Ilissa B. Ocko, Vaishali Naik, and David Paynter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15555–15568, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15555-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15555-2018, 2018
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As communities worldwide analyse options to reduce methane emissions from energy use, agriculture, and waste management, there is an immediate need to build confidence in rapid assessment tools other than standard climate metrics – which misrepresent impacts over all timescales. In this paper, we show that a simplified climate model can easily and rapidly provide scientifically robust climate responses to changes in methane emissions, thereby improving mitigation analysis and decision-making.
Fabien Paulot, David Paynter, Paul Ginoux, Vaishali Naik, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13265–13281, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13265-2018, 2018
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Observations show that the sunlight reflected to space by particles has decreased over the US and Europe, increased over India, and not changed over China from 2001 to 2015. These changes are attributed to different types of particles, namely sulfate over the US and Europe, and black carbon, sulfate, and nitrate over China and India. Our results suggest that the recent shift in human emissions from the US and Europe to Asia has altered their impact on the Earth's outgoing energy.
Jordan L. Schnell, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Fabien Paulot, Jingqiu Mao, Paul Ginoux, Ming Zhao, and Kirpa Ram
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10157–10175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10157-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10157-2018, 2018
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We evaluate the ability of a developmental version of the NOAA GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 4 to simulate observed wintertime pollution and its relationship to weather over Northern India, one of the most densely populated and polluted regions in world. We also compare two emission inventories and find that the newest version dramatically improves our simulation. Observed and modeled pollution is the highest within the Indo-Gangetic Plain, where it is closely related to near-surface weather.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Eri Saikawa, Hankyul Kim, Min Zhong, Alexander Avramov, Yu Zhao, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Jun-ichi Kurokawa, Zbigniew Klimont, Fabian Wagner, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, and Qiang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6393–6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6393-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6393-2017, 2017
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We analyze differences in existing air pollutant emission estimates to better understand the magnitude of emissions as well as the source regions and sectors of air pollution in China. We find large disagreements among the inventories, and we show that these differences have a significant impact on regional air quality simulations. Better understanding of air pollutant emissions at more disaggregated levels is essential for air pollution mitigation in China.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Raquel A. Silva, J. Jason West, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, William J. Collins, Stig Dalsoren, Greg Faluvegi, Gerd Folberth, Larry W. Horowitz, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naik, Steven T. Rumbold, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, Daniel Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, Irene Cionni, Ruth M. Doherty, Veronika Eyring, Beatrice Josse, Ian A. MacKenzie, David Plummer, Mattia Righi, David S. Stevenson, Sarah Strode, Sophie Szopa, and Guang Zengast
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9847–9862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, 2016
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Using ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models for the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, we quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution in 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to 2000 concentrations. We also estimate the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period.
Yuqiang Zhang, Jared H. Bowden, Zachariah Adelman, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven J. Smith, and J. Jason West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9533–9548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9533-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9533-2016, 2016
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Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can also improve air quality. We estimate the co-benefits of global GHG mitigation for US air quality in 2050 at fine resolution by downscaling from a previous global study. Foreign GHG mitigation under RCP4.5 contributes more to the US O3 reduction (76 % of the total) than domestic mitigation and contributes 26 % of the PM2.5 reduction. Therefore, the US gains significantly greater air quality co-benefits by coordinating GHG controls internationally.
Min Zhong, Eri Saikawa, Yang Liu, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Masayuki Takigawa, Yu Zhao, Neng-Huei Lin, and Elizabeth A. Stone
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1201–1218, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1201-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1201-2016, 2016
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Large discrepancies exist among emission inventories (e.g., REAS and EDGAR) at the provincial level in China. We use WRF-Chem to evaluate the impact of the difference in existing emission inventories and find that emissions inputs significantly affect our air pollutant simulation results. Our study highlights the importance of constraining emissions at the provincial level for regional air quality modeling over East Asia.
F. Paulot, P. Ginoux, W. F. Cooke, L. J. Donner, S. Fan, M.-Y. Lin, J. Mao, V. Naik, and L. W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1459–1477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1459-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1459-2016, 2016
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We characterize the sensitivity of NO3 optical depth (OD) to both the sources of its precursors (NH3 and HNO3) and to its surface sinks. Uncertainties in the heterogeneous chemistry of HNO3 and the near-surface volatilization of NH4NO3 can cause up to 25 % difference in the global NO3 OD. Simulated NO3 OD increases little (< 30 %) in response to changes in emissions (2010 to 2050). Better constraints on the tropical flux of NH3 into the free troposphere are needed to improve estimates of NO3 OD.
D. M. Westervelt, L. W. Horowitz, V. Naik, J.-C. Golaz, and D. L. Mauzerall
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12681–12703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12681-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12681-2015, 2015
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Decreases in aerosols over the 21st century as projected by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) lead to increases up to 0.5 - 1 ºC in global temperature and up to 0.05 - 0.1 mm/day in global precipitation, depending strongly on present-day aerosol radiative forcing. In East Asia, future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 10-20% of the total temperature increase (30-40% with strong present-day aerosol forcing), even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5).
J. L. Schnell, M. J. Prather, B. Josse, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, P. Cameron-Smith, D. Bergmann, G. Zeng, D. A. Plummer, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, D. T. Shindell, G. Faluvegi, and S. A. Strode
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10581–10596, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, 2015
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We test global chemistry--climate models in their ability to simulate present-day surface ozone. Models are tested against observed hourly ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1°x1° grid cells. Using novel metrics, we find most models match the shape but not the amplitude of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles and match the pattern but not the magnitude of summer ozone enhancement. Most also match the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes
M. M. Fry, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Z. Adelman, V. Naik, W. J. Collins, and J. J. West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5381–5399, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5381-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5381-2013, 2013
K. W. Bowman, D. T. Shindell, H. M. Worden, J.F. Lamarque, P. J. Young, D. S. Stevenson, Z. Qu, M. de la Torre, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. B. Dalsøren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. M. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. A. Plummer, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, G. Zeng, S. S. Kulawik, A. M. Aghedo, and J. R. Worden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4057–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, 2013
D. T. Shindell, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Schulz, M. Flanner, C. Jiao, M. Chin, P. J. Young, Y. H. Lee, L. Rotstayn, N. Mahowald, G. Milly, G. Faluvegi, Y. Balkanski, W. J. Collins, A. J. Conley, S. Dalsoren, R. Easter, S. Ghan, L. Horowitz, X. Liu, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, T. Takemura, A. Voulgarakis, J.-H. Yoon, and F. Lo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2939–2974, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, 2013
D. S. Stevenson, P. J. Young, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, A. Voulgarakis, R. B. Skeie, S. B. Dalsoren, G. Myhre, T. K. Berntsen, G. A. Folberth, S. T. Rumbold, W. J. Collins, I. A. MacKenzie, R. M. Doherty, G. Zeng, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, D. A. Plummer, S. A. Strode, L. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, S. Szopa, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, B. Josse, I. Cionni, M. Righi, V. Eyring, A. Conley, K. W. Bowman, O. Wild, and A. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013
Y. H. Lee, J.-F. Lamarque, M. G. Flanner, C. Jiao, D. T. Shindell, T. Berntsen, M. M. Bisiaux, J. Cao, W. J. Collins, M. Curran, R. Edwards, G. Faluvegi, S. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, J. R. McConnell, J. Ming, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, K. Sudo, T. Takemura, F. Thevenon, B. Xu, and J.-H. Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2607–2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
P. J. Young, A. T. Archibald, K. W. Bowman, J.-F. Lamarque, V. Naik, D. S. Stevenson, S. Tilmes, A. Voulgarakis, O. Wild, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013
J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, B. Josse, P. J. Young, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. Dalsoren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, S. J. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, and G. Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, 2013
Y. Fang, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, and D. L. Mauzerall
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1377–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1377-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1377-2013, 2013
J. G. John, A. M. Fiore, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, and J. P. Dunne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12021–12036, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12021-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12021-2012, 2012
Anastasios Rovithakis, Eleanor Burke, Chantelle Burton, Matthew Kasoar, Manolis G. Grillakis, Konstantinos D. Seiradakis, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-274, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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JULES-INFERNO captures observed burned area across Greece fairly well for the present-day. Drastic future changes in burnt area in Eastern continental and southern Greece, especially under severe climate change scenarios. Static vegetation leads to larger burnt area compared to dynamic vegetation due to the lower concentration of flammable needleleaf trees.
Mingxuan Wu, Hailong Wang, Zheng Lu, Xiaohong Liu, Huisheng Bian, David Cohen, Yan Feng, Mian Chin, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Vlassis A. Karydis, Marianne T. Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Andrea Pozzer, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Shaocheng Xie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-235, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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A key challenge in simulating the lifecycle of nitrate aerosol in global climate models is to accurately represent mass size distribution of nitrate aerosol, which lacks sufficient observational constraints. We found that most climate models underestimate the mass fraction of fine-mode nitrate at surface in all regions. Our study highlights the importance of gas-aerosol partitioning parameterization and simulation of dust and sea salt in correctly simulating mass size distribution of nitrate.
Mariya Petrenko, Ralph Kahn, Mian Chin, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Huisheng Bian, Gabriele Curci, Ben Johnson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Zak Kipling, Harri Kokkola, Xiaohong Liu, Keren Mezuman, Tero Mielonen, Gunnar Myhre, Xiaohua Pan, Anna Protonotariou, Samuel Remy, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Hailong Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Kai Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1545–1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1545-2025, 2025
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We compared smoke plume simulations from 11 global models to each other and to satellite smoke amount observations aimed at constraining smoke source strength. In regions where plumes are thick and background aerosol is low, models and satellites compare well. However, the input emission inventory tends to underestimate in many places, and particle property and loss rate assumptions vary enormously among models, causing uncertainties that require systematic in situ measurements to resolve.
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
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We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Xavier Faïn, Sophie Szopa, Vaishali Naïk, Patricia Martinerie, David M. Etheridge, Rachael H. Rhodes, Cathy M. Trudinger, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Kévin Fourteau, and Philip Place
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1105–1119, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1105-2025, 2025
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Carbon monoxide (CO) plays a crucial role in the atmosphere's oxidizing capacity. In this study, we analyse how historical (1850–2014) [CO] outputs from state-of-the-art global chemistry–climate models over Greenland and Antarctica are able to capture both absolute values and trends recorded in multi-site ice archives. A disparity in [CO] growth rates emerges in the Northern Hemisphere between models and observations from 1920–1975 CE, possibly linked to uncertainties in CO emission factors.
Maryam Ramezani Ziarani, Miriam Sinnhuber, Thomas Reddmann, Bernd Funke, Stefan Bender, and Michael Prather
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-227, 2025
Preprint under review for GMD
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Our study aims to present a new method for incorporating top-down solar forcing into stratospheric ozone relying on linearized ozone scheme. The addition of geomagnetic forcing led to significant ozone losses in the polar upper stratosphere of both hemispheres due to the catalytic cycles involving NOy. In addition to the particle precipitation effect, accounting for solar UV variability in the ICON-ART model leads to the changes in ozone in the tropical stratosphere.
Ke Li, Rong Tan, Wenhao Qiao, Taegyung Lee, Yufen Wang, Danyuting Zhang, Minglong Tang, Wenqing Zhao, Yixuan Gu, Shaojia Fan, Jinqiang Zhang, Xiaopu Lyu, Likun Xue, Jianming Xu, Zhiqiang Ma, Mohd Talib Latif, Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen, Junsu Gil, Mee-Hye Lee, Juseon Bak, Joowan Kim, Hong Liao, Yugo Kanaya, Xiao Lu, Tatsuya Nagashima, and Ja-Ho Koo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3756, 2025
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East Asia and Southeast Asia has been identified as a global hot spot with the fastest ozone increase. This paper presents the most comprehensive observational view of ozone distributions and evolution over East Asia and Southeast Asia across different spatiotemporal scales in the past two decades, which will have important implications for assessing ozone impacts on public health and crop yields, and for developing future ozone control strategies.
Emma Sands, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard J. Pope, James Weber, and Daniel P. Grosvenor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4014, 2025
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We use satellite observations to quantify isoprene, formaldehyde and aerosol optical depth biases in UKESM1.1 and their sensitivity to process representation. The more detailed chemistry mechanism is particularly impactful by decreasing the isoprene and formaldehyde biases and reducing aerosol formation. Other processes have strong regional impacts. The new processes affect the present-day aerosol direct radiative effect (+0.17 W m-2), with implications for land use change forcing studies.
Paul J. Durack, Karl E. Taylor, Peter J. Gleckler, Gerald A. Meehl, Bryan N. Lawrence, Curt Covey, Ronald J. Stouffer, Guillaume Levavasseur, Atef Ben-Nasser, Sebastien Denvil, Martina Stockhause, Jonathan M. Gregory, Martin Juckes, Sasha K. Ames, Fabrizio Antonio, David C. Bader, John P. Dunne, Daniel Ellis, Veronika Eyring, Sandro L. Fiore, Sylvie Joussaume, Philip Kershaw, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael Lautenschlager, Jiwoo Lee, Chris F. Mauzey, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Alessandra Nuzzo, Eleanor O’Rourke, Jeffrey Painter, Gerald L. Potter, Sven Rodriguez, and Dean N. Williams
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3729, 2025
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CMIP6 was the most expansive and ambitious Model Intercomparison Project (MIP), the latest in a history, extending four decades. CMIP engaged a growing community focused on improving climate understanding, and quantifying and attributing observed climate change being experienced today. The project's profound impact is due to the combining the latest climate science and technology, enabling the latest-generation climate simulations and increasing community attention in every successive phase.
John Patrick Dunne, Helene T. Hewitt, Julie Arblaster, Frédéric Bonou, Olivier Boucher, Tereza Cavazos, Paul J. Durack, Birgit Hassler, Martin Juckes, Tomoki Miyakawa, Matthew Mizielinski, Vaishali Naik, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O’Rourke, Robert Pincus, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Isla R. Simpson, and Karl E. Taylor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3874, 2024
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This manuscript provides the motivation and experimental design for the seventh phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) to coordinate community based efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions and facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations for: prediction and projection, characterization, attribution and process understanding; vulnerability, impacts and adaptations analysis; national and international climate assessments; and society at large.
Thibaut Lebourgeois, Bastien Sauvage, Pawel Wolff, Béatrice Josse, Virginie Marécal, Yasmine Bennouna, Romain Blot, Damien Boulanger, Hannah Clark, Jean-Marc Cousin, Philippe Nedelec, and Valérie Thouret
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13975–14004, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13975-2024, 2024
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Our study examines intense-carbon-monoxide (CO) pollution events measured by commercial aircraft from the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) research infrastructure. We combine these measurements with the SOFT-IO model to trace the origin of the observed CO. A comprehensive analysis of the geographical origin, source type, seasonal variation, and ozone levels of these pollution events is provided.
Xiao Lu, Yiming Liu, Jiayin Su, Xiang Weng, Tabish Ansari, Yuqiang Zhang, Guowen He, Yuqi Zhu, Haolin Wang, Ganquan Zeng, Jingyu Li, Cheng He, Shuai Li, Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen, Tim Butler, Qi Fan, Shaojia Fan, Grant L. Forster, Meng Gao, Jianlin Hu, Yugo Kanaya, Mohd Talib Latif, Keding Lu, Philippe Nédélec, Peer Nowack, Bastien Sauvage, Xiaobin Xu, Lin Zhang, Ke Li, Ja-Ho Koo, and Tatsuya Nagashima
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3702, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3702, 2024
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This study analyzes summertime ozone trends in East and Southeast Asia derived from a comprehensive observational database spanning from 1995 to 2019, incorporating aircraft observations, ozonesonde data, and measurements from 2500 surface sites. Multiple models are applied to attribute to changes in anthropogenic emissions and climate. The results highlight increases in anthropogenic emission are the primary driver of ozone increases both in the free troposphere and at the surface.
William J. Collins, Fiona M. O'Connor, Connor R. Barker, Rachael E. Byrom, Sebastian D. Eastham, Øivind Hodnebrog, Patrick Jöckel, Eloise A. Marais, Mariano Mertens, Gunnar Myhre, Matthias Nützel, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Laura Stecher, Larry W. Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Gregory Faluvegi, Ulas Im, Lee T. Murray, Drew Shindell, Kostas Tsigaridis, Nathan Luke Abraham, and James Keeble
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3698, 2024
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If reductions aren’t implemented to limit emissions of pollutants that produce ozone then we calculate that this will cause a warming of climate. We assess how the future warming from ozone is affected by changing meteorological variables such as clouds and atmospheric temperatures. We find that reductions in high cloud cover tend to slightly reduce the warming from ozone.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Rachael Byrom, Øivind Hodnebrog, Caroline Jouan, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13361–13370, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13361-2024, 2024
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In 2020, new regulations by the International Maritime Organization regarding sulfur emissions came into force, reducing emissions of SO2 from the shipping sector by approximately 80 %. In this study, we use multiple models to calculate how much the Earth energy balance changed due to the emission reduction or the so-called effective radiative forcing. The calculated effective radiative forcing is weak, comparable to the effect of the increase in CO2 over the last 2 to 3 years.
Bettina K. Gier, Manuel Schlund, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Colin Jones, Sönke Zaehle, and Veronika Eyring
Biogeosciences, 21, 5321–5360, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, 2024
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This study investigates present-day carbon cycle variables in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Overall, CMIP6 models perform better but also show many remaining biases. A significant improvement in the simulation of photosynthesis in models with a nitrogen cycle is found, with only small differences between emission- and concentration-based simulations. Thus, we recommend using emission-driven simulations in CMIP7 by default and including the nitrogen cycle in all future carbon cycle models.
Bryan N. Duncan, Daniel C. Anderson, Arlene M. Fiore, Joanna Joiner, Nickolay A. Krotkov, Can Li, Dylan B. Millet, Julie M. Nicely, Luke D. Oman, Jason M. St. Clair, Joshua D. Shutter, Amir H. Souri, Sarah A. Strode, Brad Weir, Glenn M. Wolfe, Helen M. Worden, and Qindan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13001–13023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13001-2024, 2024
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Trace gases emitted to or formed within the atmosphere may be chemically or physically removed from the atmosphere. One trace gas, the hydroxyl radical (OH), is responsible for initiating the chemical removal of many trace gases, including some greenhouse gases. Despite its importance, scientists have not been able to adequately measure OH. In this opinion piece, we discuss promising new methods to indirectly constrain OH using satellite data of trace gases that control the abundance of OH.
Simone Tilmes, Ewa M. Bednarz, Andrin Jörimann, Daniele Visioni, Douglas E. Kinnison, Gabriel Chiodo, and David Plummer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3586, 2024
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This paper describes the details of a new multi-model intercomparison experiment to assess the effects of Stratospheric Aerosol Injections on stratospheric chemistry and dynamics and, therefore, ozone. In this experiment, all models will use the same prescribed stratospheric aerosol distribution and fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice. We discuss the advantages and differences of this more constrained experiment compared to previous more interactive model experiments.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
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We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Yunqian Zhu, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Valentina Aquila, Elisabeth Asher, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Christoph Brühl, Amy H. Butler, Parker Case, Simon Chabrillat, Gabriel Chiodo, Margot Clyne, Lola Falletti, Peter R. Colarco, Eric Fleming, Andrin Jörimann, Mahesh Kovilakam, Gerbrand Koren, Ales Kuchar, Nicolas Lebas, Qing Liang, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham Mann, Michael Manyin, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Newman, Luke D. Oman, Freja F. Østerstrøm, Yifeng Peng, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Samuel Rémy, Takashi Sekiya, Stephen Steenrod, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Rei Ueyama, Daniele Visioni, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Yousuke Yamashita, Pengfei Yu, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, and Zhihong Zhuo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3412, 2024
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To understand the climate impact of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption, we developed a climate model-observation comparison project. The paper describes the protocols and models that participate in the experiments. We designed several experiments to achieve our goal of this activity: 1. evaluate the climate model performance; 2. understand the Earth system responses to this eruption.
Jingmin Li, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Christof G. Beer, Ulrike Burkhardt, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12727–12747, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024, 2024
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Aiming to understand underlying patterns and trends in aerosols, we characterize the spatial patterns and long-term evolution of lower tropospheric aerosols by clustering multiple aerosol properties from preindustrial times to the year 2050 under three Shared
Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The results provide a clear and condensed picture of the spatial extent and distribution of aerosols for different time periods and emission scenarios.
Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The results provide a clear and condensed picture of the spatial extent and distribution of aerosols for different time periods and emission scenarios.
Jakob Pernov, William Aeberhard, Michele Volpi, Eliza Harris, Benjamin Hohermuth, Sakiko Ishino, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Stephan Henne, Ulas Im, Patricia Quinn, Lucia Upchurch, and Julia Schmale
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3379, 2024
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MSAp is a vital part of the Arctic climate system. Numerical models struggle to reproduce the seasonal cycle of MSAp. We evaluate three numerical models and one reanalysis product’s ability to simulate MSAp. We develop data-driven models for MSAp at four High Arctic stations. The data-driven models outperform the numerical models and reanalysis product and identified precursor source, chemical processing, and removal-related features as being important for modeling MSAp.
Flossie Brown, Gerd Folberth, Stephen Sitch, Paulo Artaxo, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Alexander W. Cheesman, Matteo Detto, Ninong Komala, Luciana Rizzo, Nestor Rojas, Ines dos Santos Vieira, Steven Turnock, Hans Verbeeck, and Alfonso Zambrano
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12537–12555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12537-2024, 2024
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Ozone is a pollutant that is detrimental to human and plant health. Ozone monitoring sites in the tropics are limited, so models are often used to understand ozone exposure. We use measurements from the tropics to evaluate ozone from the UK Earth system model, UKESM1. UKESM1 is able to capture the pattern of ozone in the tropics, except in southeast Asia, although it systematically overestimates it at all sites. This work highlights that UKESM1 can capture seasonal and hourly variability.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Magne Aldrin, Terje K. Berntsen, Marit Holden, Ragnar Bang Huseby, Gunnar Myhre, and Trude Storelvmo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1435–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024, 2024
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Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are central quantities in climate science that are uncertain and contribute to the spread in climate projections. To constrain them, we use observations of temperature and ocean heat content as well as prior knowledge of radiative forcings over the industrialized period. The estimates are sensitive to how aerosol cooling evolved over the latter part of the 20th century, and a strong aerosol forcing trend in the 1960s–1970s is not supported by our analysis.
Yasin Elshorbany, Jerald R. Ziemke, Sarah Strode, Hervé Petetin, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Isabelle De Smedt, Kenneth Pickering, Rodrigo J. Seguel, Helen Worden, Tamara Emmerichs, Domenico Taraborrelli, Maria Cazorla, Suvarna Fadnavis, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Néstor Y. Rojas, Thiago Nogueira, Thérèse Salameh, and Min Huang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12225–12257, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12225-2024, 2024
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We investigated tropospheric ozone spatial variability and trends from 2005 to 2019 and related those to ozone precursors on global and regional scales. We also investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of the ozone formation regime in relation to ozone chemical sources and sinks. Our analysis is based on remote sensing products of the tropospheric column of ozone and its precursors, nitrogen dioxide, formaldehyde, and total column CO, as well as ozonesonde data and model simulations.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Marit Sandstad, Srinath Krishnan, Gunnar Myhre, and Maria Sand
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3079, 2024
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Hydrogen leakages can alter the amount of climate gases in the atmosphere and hence have a climate impact. In this study we investigate, using an atmospheric chemistry model, how this indirect climate effect differs for different amounts of leakages, where the hydrogen leaks and if this effect changes in the future. The effect is largest for emissions far from areas where hydrogen is removed from the atmosphere by the soil, but these are not relevant locations for a future hydrogen economy.
Mariano Mertens, Sabine Brinkop, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Johannes Hendricks, Patrick Jöckel, Anna Lanteri, Sigrun Matthes, Vanessa S. Rieger, Mattia Righi, and Robin N. Thor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12079–12106, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12079-2024, 2024
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We quantified the contributions of land transport, shipping, and aviation emissions to tropospheric ozone; its radiative forcing; and the reductions of the methane lifetime using chemistry-climate model simulations. The contributions were analysed for the conditions of 2015 and for three projections for the year 2050. The results highlight the challenges of mitigating ozone formed by emissions of the transport sector, caused by the non-linearitiy of the ozone chemistry and the long lifetime.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Steven Turnock, Dimitris Akritidis, Larry Horowitz, Mariano Mertens, Andrea Pozzer, Carly Reddington, Hantao Wang, Putian Zhou, and Fiona O'Connor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2732, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2732, 2024
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We assess the drivers behind changes in peak season surface zone concentrations and risk to human health between 1850 and 2014. Substantial increases in surface ozone have occurred over this period resulting in a significant increase in the risk to human health, mainly driven by increases in anthropogenic NOx emissions and global CH4 concentrations. Fixing anthropogenic NOx emissions at 1850 values in the near present-day period can eliminate the risk to human health.
Thi Nhu Ngoc Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2313, 2024
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Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth System Models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant-climate interactions.
Emma Sands, Richard J. Pope, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, Chris Wilson, and Hugh Pumphrey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11081–11102, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11081-2024, 2024
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Changes in vegetation alongside biomass burning impact regional atmospheric composition and air quality. Using satellite remote sensing, we find a clear linear relationship between forest cover and isoprene and a pronounced non-linear relationship between burned area and nitrogen dioxide in the southern Amazon, a region of substantial deforestation. These quantified relationships can be used for model evaluation and further exploration of biosphere-atmosphere interactions in Earth System Models.
Patrick E. Sheese, Kaley A. Walker, Chris D. Boone, and David A. Plummer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2946, 2024
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Observations from ACE-FTS are used to examine global stratospheric water vapour trends for 2004–2021. The satellite measurements are used to quantify trend contributions arising from changes in tropical tropopause temperatures, general circulation patterns, and methane concentrations. While most of the observed trends can be explained by these changes, there remains an unaccounted for and increasing source of water vapour in the lower mid-stratosphere at midlatitudes, which is discussed.
Cynthia Whaley, Montana Etten-Bohm, Courtney Schumacher, Ayodeji Akingunola, Vivek Arora, Jason Cole, Michael Lazare, David Plummer, Knut von Salzen, and Barbara Winter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7141–7155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, 2024
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This paper describes how lightning was added as a process in the Canadian Earth System Model in order to interactively respond to climate changes. As lightning is an important cause of global wildfires, this new model development allows for more realistic projections of how wildfires may change in the future, responding to a changing climate.
Manu Anna Thomas, Klaus Wyser, Shiyu Wang, Marios Chatziparaschos, Paraskevi Georgakaki, Montserrat Costa-Surós, Maria Gonçalves Ageitos, Maria Kanakidou, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Athanasios Nenes, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Abhay Devasthale
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6903–6927, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6903-2024, 2024
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Aerosol–cloud interactions occur at a range of spatio-temporal scales. While evaluating recent developments in EC-Earth3-AerChem, this study aims to understand the extent to which the Twomey effect manifests itself at larger scales. We find a reduction in the warm bias over the Southern Ocean due to model improvements. While we see footprints of the Twomey effect at larger scales, the negative relationship between cloud droplet number and liquid water drives the shortwave radiative effect.
Pinchas Nürnberg, Sarah A. Strode, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10001–10012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10001-2024, 2024
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We created a set of scaling factors describing the diurnal increase in stratospheric nitrogen oxides above Zugspitze, Germany. We used these factors to validate recently published model simulation data. On the one hand, this validation enables the use of the validated data to better understand the stratospheric photochemistry. On the other hand, it can improve satellite validation, which has implications for the understanding of urban smog events and other pollution events in the troposphere.
Kevin Debeire, Lisa Bock, Peer Nowack, Jakob Runge, and Veronika Eyring
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2656, 2024
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This study introduces a new method to reduce uncertainty in climate model projections of future precipitation patterns over land. By using advanced causal discovery techniques, our approach improves the reliability of precipitation projections under different global warming scenarios, supporting the development of more effective strategies to address the impacts of climate change.
Marit Sandstad, Borgar Aamaas, Ane Nordlie Johansen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Glen Philip Peters, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Benjamin Mark Sanderson, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6589–6625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, 2024
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The CICERO-SCM has existed as a Fortran model since 1999 that calculates the radiative forcing and concentrations from emissions and is an upwelling diffusion energy balance model of the ocean that calculates temperature change. In this paper, we describe an updated version ported to Python and publicly available at https://github.com/ciceroOslo/ciceroscm (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10548720). This version contains functionality for parallel runs and automatic calibration.
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael J. Prather, Alexander T. Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Christopher J. Smith, Steven T. Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2528, 2024
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The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. In this paper, we review its contribution to AR6, and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify remaining challenges concluding with recommendations aimed to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data to address the role of short-lived climate forcers in the Earth system.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Tim Butler, Jose A. Adame, Rupal Ambulkar, Stephen R. Arnold, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Douglas S. Hamilton, Min Huang, Hayley Hung, Johannes W. Kaiser, Jacek W. Kaminski, Christophe Knote, Gerbrand Koren, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Meiyun Lin, Tianjia Liu, Jianmin Ma, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Elisa Bergas Masso, Jessica L. McCarty, Mariano Mertens, Mark Parrington, Helene Peiro, Pallavi Saxena, Saurabh Sonwani, Vanisa Surapipith, Damaris Tan, Wenfu Tang, Veerachai Tanpipat, Kostas Tsigaridis, Christine Wiedinmyer, Oliver Wild, Yuanyu Xie, and Paquita Zuidema
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-126, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-126, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The multi-model experiment design of the HTAP3 Fires project takes a multi-pollutant approach to improving our understanding of transboundary transport of wildland fire and agricultural burning emissions and their impacts. The experiments are designed with the goal of answering science policy questions related to fires. The options for the multi-model approach, including inputs, outputs, and model set up are discussed, and the official recommendations for the project are presented.
Calum Patrick Wilson and Michael John Prather
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1173, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1173, 2024
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We evaluated how well we can infer air pollutant levels (ozone, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides) between air quality stations throughout South Korea, finding good representation in most densely measured cities in spite of intense small-scale emission hotspots. Comparing observed air quality with gridded model output is desirable, and so we created gridded datasets over South Korea using air quality station measurements, which agreed with airborne measurements around Seoul.
Pauline Bonnet, Lorenzo Pastori, Mierk Schwabe, Marco A. Giorgetta, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, and Veronika Eyring
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2508, 2024
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Tuning a climate model means adjusting uncertain parameters in the model to best match observations like the global radiation balance and cloud cover. This is usually done by running many simulations of the model with different settings, which can be time-consuming and relies heavily on expert knowledge. To make this process faster and more objective, we developed a machine learning emulator to create a large ensemble and apply a method called history matching to find the best settings.
Amir H. Souri, Bryan N. Duncan, Sarah A. Strode, Daniel C. Anderson, Michael E. Manyin, Junhua Liu, Luke D. Oman, Zhen Zhang, and Brad Weir
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8677–8701, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8677-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8677-2024, 2024
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We explore a new method of using the wealth of information obtained from satellite observations of Aura OMI NO2, HCHO, and MERRA-2 reanalysis in NASA’s GEOS model equipped with an efficient tropospheric OH (TOH) estimator to enhance the representation of TOH spatial distribution and its long-term trends. This new framework helps us pinpoint regional inaccuracies in TOH and differentiate between established prior knowledge and newly acquired information from satellites on TOH trends.
Hossain Mohammed Syedul Hoque, Kengo Sudo, Hitoshi Irie, Yanfeng He, and Md Firoz Khan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5545–5571, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5545-2024, 2024
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Using multi-platform observations, we validated global formaldehyde (HCHO) simulations from a chemistry transport model. HCHO is a crucial intermediate in the chemical catalytic cycle that governs the ozone formation in the troposphere. The model was capable of replicating the observed spatiotemporal variability in HCHO. In a few cases, the model's capability was limited. This is attributed to the uncertainties in the observations and the model parameters.
Laura N. Saunders, Kaley A. Walker, Gabriele P. Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Florian Haenel, Hella Garny, Harald Bönisch, Chris D. Boone, Ariana E. Castillo, Andreas Engel, Johannes C. Laube, Marianna Linz, Felix Ploeger, David A. Plummer, Eric A. Ray, and Patrick E. Sheese
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2117, 2024
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We present a 17-year stratospheric age of air dataset derived from ACE-FTS satellite measurements of sulfur hexafluoride. This is the longest continuous, global, and vertically resolved age of air time series available to date. In this paper, we show that this dataset agrees well with age of air datasets based on measurements from other instruments. We also present trends in the midlatitude lower stratosphere that indicate changes in the global circulation that are predicted by climate models.
Alkiviadis Kalisoras, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Dimitris Akritidis, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Chaincy Kuo, Sophie Szopa, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, David Neubauer, Naga Oshima, Jane Mulcahy, Larry W. Horowitz, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7837–7872, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, 2024
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Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a metric for estimating how human activities and natural agents change the energy flow into and out of the Earth’s climate system. We investigate the anthropogenic aerosol ERF, and we estimate the contribution of individual processes to the total ERF using simulations from Earth system models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our findings highlight that aerosol–cloud interactions drive ERF variability during the last 150 years.
Jinbo Xie, Qi Tang, Michael Prather, Jadwiga Richter, and Shixuan Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1927, 2024
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Analysis of the interaction between the climate and ozone in the stratosphere is complicated by the in-ability climate model in simulating the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) – an important climate mode in the stratosphere. We use a set of model simulation that realistically simulate QBO and a novel ozone diagnostic tool to separate the temperature and circulation-driven QBO impact. These are important for diagnosing model-model differences in the QBO-ozone responses for climate projections.
Arndt Kaps, Axel Lauer, Rémi Kazeroni, Martin Stengel, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3001–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3001-2024, 2024
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CCClim displays observations of clouds in terms of cloud classes that have been in use for a long time. CCClim is a machine-learning-powered product based on multiple existing observational products from different satellites. We show that the cloud classes in CCClim are physically meaningful and can be used to study cloud characteristics in more detail. The goal of this is to make real-world clouds more easily understandable to eventually improve the simulation of clouds in climate models.
Fangxuan Ren, Jintai Lin, Chenghao Xu, Jamiu A. Adeniran, Jingxu Wang, Randall V. Martin, Aaron van Donkelaar, Melanie S. Hammer, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven T. Turnock, Naga Oshima, Jie Zhang, Susanne Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Gary Strand, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Toshihiko Takemura
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4821–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the performance of 14 CMIP6 ESMs in simulating total PM2.5 and its 5 components over China during 2000–2014. PM2.5 and its components are underestimated in almost all models, except that black carbon (BC) and sulfate are overestimated in two models, respectively. The underestimation is the largest for organic carbon (OC) and the smallest for BC. Models reproduce the observed spatial pattern for OC, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC.
Soufiane Karmouche, Evgenia Galytska, Gerald A. Meehl, Jakob Runge, Katja Weigel, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 689–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-689-2024, 2024
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This study explores Atlantic–Pacific interactions and their response to external factors. Causal analysis of 1950–2014 data reveals a shift from a Pacific- to an Atlantic-driven regime. Contrasting impacts between El Niño and tropical Atlantic temperatures are highlighted, along with different pathways connecting the two oceans. The findings also suggest increasing remote contributions of forced Atlantic responses in modulating local Pacific responses during the most recent analyzed decades.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
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This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Christoph Staehle, Harald E. Rieder, Arlene M. Fiore, and Jordan L. Schnell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5953–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5953-2024, 2024
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Chemistry–climate models show biases compared to surface ozone observations and thus require bias correction for impact studies and the assessment of air quality changes. We compare the performance of commonly used correction techniques for model outputs available via CMIP6. While all methods can reduce model biases, better results are obtained from more complex approaches. Thus, our study suggests broader use of these techniques in studies seeking to inform air quality management and policy.
Oliver Perkins, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Cathy Smith, Jay Mistry, and James D. A. Millington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3993–4016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, 2024
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Wildfire is often presented in the media as a danger to human life. Yet globally, millions of people’s livelihoods depend on using fire as a tool. So, patterns of fire emerge from interactions between humans, land use, and climate. This complexity means scientists cannot yet reliably say how fire will be impacted by climate change. So, we developed a new model that represents globally how people use and manage fire. The model reveals the extent and diversity of how humans live with and use fire.
Alexandra Rivera, Kostas Tsigaridis, Gregory Faluvegi, and Drew Shindell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3487–3505, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3487-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3487-2024, 2024
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This paper describes and evaluates an improvement to the representation of acetone in the GISS ModelE2.1 Earth system model. We simulate acetone's concentration and transport across the atmosphere as well as its dependence on chemistry, the ocean, and various global emissions. Comparisons of our model’s estimates to past modeling studies and field measurements have shown encouraging results. Ultimately, this paper contributes to a broader understanding of acetone's role in the atmosphere.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Felicia Kolonjari, Patrick E. Sheese, Kaley A. Walker, Chris D. Boone, David A. Plummer, Andreas Engel, Stephen A. Montzka, David E. Oram, Tanja Schuck, Gabriele P. Stiller, and Geoffrey C. Toon
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 2429–2449, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2429-2024, 2024
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The Canadian Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS) satellite instrument is currently providing the only vertically resolved chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22) measurements from space. This study assesses the most current ACE-FTS HCFC-22 data product in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, as well as modelled HCFC-22 from a 39-year run of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM39) in the same region.
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3063–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, 2024
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Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterization in the northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
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Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Christof G. Beer, Johannes Hendricks, and Mattia Righi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3217–3240, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3217-2024, 2024
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Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) have important influences on cirrus clouds and the climate system; however, the understanding of their global impacts is still uncertain. We perform numerical simulations with a global aerosol–climate model to analyse INP-induced cirrus changes and the resulting climate impacts. We evaluate various sources of uncertainties, e.g. the ice-nucleating ability of INPs and the role of model dynamics, and provide a new estimate for the global INP–cirrus effect.
Lily Gouldsbrough, Ryan Hossaini, Emma Eastoe, Paul J. Young, and Massimo Vieno
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3163–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3163-2024, 2024
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High-resolution spatial fields of surface ozone are used to understand spikes in ozone concentration and predict their impact on public health. Such fields are routinely output from complex mathematical models for atmospheric conditions. These outputs are on a coarse spatial resolution and the highest concentrations tend to be biased. Using a novel data-driven machine learning methodology, we show how such output can be corrected to produce fields with both lower bias and higher resolution.
George Jordan, Florent Malavelle, Ying Chen, Amy Peace, Eliza Duncan, Daniel G. Partridge, Paul Kim, Duncan Watson-Parris, Toshihiko Takemura, David Neubauer, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Skeie, Anton Laakso, and James Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1939–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024, 2024
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The 2014–15 Holuhraun eruption caused a huge aerosol plume in an otherwise unpolluted region, providing a chance to study how aerosol alters cloud properties. This two-part study uses observations and models to quantify this relationship’s impact on the Earth’s energy budget. Part 1 suggests the models capture the observed spatial and chemical evolution of the plume, yet no model plume is exact. Understanding these differences is key for Part 2, where changes to cloud properties are explored.
Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Peter R. Colarco, Eric C. Apel, Donald R. Blake, Karl Froyd, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, Jose Jimenez, Pedro Campuzano Jost, Michael Lawler, Mingxu Liu, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Benjamin A. Nault, Joyce E. Penner, Andrew W. Rollins, Gregory Schill, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Hailong Wang, Lu Xu, Kai Zhang, and Jialei Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1717–1741, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1717-2024, 2024
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This work studies sulfur in the remote troposphere at global and seasonal scales using aircraft measurements and multi-model simulations. The goal is to understand the sulfur cycle over remote oceans, spread of model simulations, and observation–model discrepancies. Such an understanding and comparison with real observations are crucial to narrow down the uncertainties in model sulfur simulations and improve understanding of the sulfur cycle in atmospheric air quality, climate, and ecosystems.
Victoria A. Flood, Kimberly Strong, Cynthia H. Whaley, Kaley A. Walker, Thomas Blumenstock, James W. Hannigan, Johan Mellqvist, Justus Notholt, Mathias Palm, Amelie N. Röhling, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Makoto Deushi, Srdjan Dobricic, Xinyi Dong, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Wanmin Gong, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, David A. Plummer, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Manu A. Thomas, Svetlana Tsyro, and Steven Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1079–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1079-2024, 2024
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It is important to understand the composition of the Arctic atmosphere and how it is changing. Atmospheric models provide simulations that can inform policy. This study examines simulations of CH4, CO, and O3 by 11 models. Model performance is assessed by comparing results matched in space and time to measurements from five high-latitude ground-based infrared spectrometers. This work finds that models generally underpredict the concentrations of these gases in the Arctic troposphere.
Christopher D. Wells, Matthew Kasoar, Majid Ezzati, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1025–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, 2024
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Human-driven emissions of air pollutants, mostly caused by burning fossil fuels, impact both the climate and human health. Millions of deaths each year are caused by air pollution globally, and the future trends are uncertain. Here, we use a global climate model to study the effect of African pollutant emissions on surface level air pollution, and resultant impacts on human health, in several future emission scenarios. We find much lower health impacts under cleaner, lower-emission futures.
Hsiang-He Lee, Qi Tang, and Michael Prather
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-203, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The E3SM Chemistry diagnostics package (ChemDyg) is a software tool, which is designed for the global climate model (E3SM) chemistry development. ChemDyg generates several diagnostic plots and tables for model-to-model and model-to-observation comparison, including 2-dimentional contour mapping plots, diurnal and annual cycle, time-series plots, and comprehensive processing tables. This paper is to introduce the details of each diagnostics set and its required input data formats in ChemDyg.
Putian Zhou, Zhengyao Lu, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Qiong Zhang, Juha Lento, Jianpu Bian, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Markku Kulmala, Michael Boy, and Risto Makkonen
Clim. Past, 19, 2445–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2445-2023, 2023
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A Green Sahara with enhanced rainfall and larger vegetation cover existed in northern Africa about 6000 years ago. Biosphere–atmosphere interactions are found to be critical to explaining this wet period. Based on modeled vegetation reconstruction data, we simulated dust emissions and aerosol formation, which are key factors in biosphere–atmosphere interactions. Our results also provide a benchmark of aerosol climatology for future paleo-climate simulation experiments.
Hamza Ahsan, Hailong Wang, Jingbo Wu, Mingxuan Wu, Steven J. Smith, Susanne Bauer, Harrison Suchyta, Dirk Olivié, Gunnar Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Huisheng Bian, Jean-François Lamarque, Ken Carslaw, Larry Horowitz, Leighton Regayre, Mian Chin, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Vaishali Naik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, 2023
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We examine the impact of the assumed effective height of SO2 injection, SO2 and BC emission seasonality, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions injected as SO4 on climate and chemistry model results. We find that the SO2 injection height has a large impact on surface SO2 concentrations and, in some models, radiative flux. These assumptions are a
hiddensource of inter-model variability and may be leading to bias in some climate model results.
Zhenze Liu, Oliver Wild, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13755–13768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13755-2023, 2023
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We investigate the impact of net-zero policies on surface ozone pollution in China. A chemistry–climate model is used to simulate ozone changes driven by local and external emissions, methane, and warmer climates. A deep learning model is applied to generate more robust ozone projection, and we find that the benefits of net-zero policies may be overestimated with the chemistry–climate model. Nevertheless, it is clear that the policies can still substantially reduce ozone pollution in future.
Yanfeng He and Kengo Sudo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13061–13085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13061-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13061-2023, 2023
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Lightning has big social impacts. Lightning-produced NOx (LNOx) plays a vital role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. Investigating past lightning and LNOx trends can provide essential indicators of all lightning-related phenomena. Simulations show almost flat global lightning and LNOx trends during 1960–2014. Past global warming enhances the trends positively, but increases in aerosol have the opposite effect. Moreover, global lightning decreased markedly after the Pinatubo eruption.
Herizo Narivelo, Paul David Hamer, Virginie Marécal, Luke Surl, Tjarda Roberts, Sophie Pelletier, Béatrice Josse, Jonathan Guth, Mickaël Bacles, Simon Warnach, Thomas Wagner, Stefano Corradini, Giuseppe Salerno, and Lorenzo Guerrieri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10533–10561, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10533-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10533-2023, 2023
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Volcanic emissions emit large quantities of gases and primary aerosols that can play an important role in atmospheric chemistry. We present a study of the fate of volcanic bromine emissions from the eruption of Mount Etna around Christmas 2018. Using a numerical model and satellite observations, we analyse the impact of the volcanic plume and how it modifies the composition of the air over the whole Mediterranean basin, in particular on tropospheric ozone through the bromine-explosion cycle.
Jason Neil Steven Cole, Knut von Salzen, Jiangnan Li, John Scinocca, David Plummer, Vivek Arora, Norman McFarlane, Michael Lazare, Murray MacKay, and Diana Verseghy
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5427–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5427-2023, 2023
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The Canadian Atmospheric Model version 5 (CanAM5) is used to simulate on a global scale the climate of Earth's atmosphere, land, and lakes. We document changes to the physics in CanAM5 since the last major version of the model (CanAM4) and evaluate the climate simulated relative to observations and CanAM4. The climate simulated by CanAM5 is similar to CanAM4, but there are improvements, including better simulation of temperature and precipitation over the Amazon and better simulation of cloud.
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, James Keeble, Thomas Peter, Svenja Seeber, Andrea Stenke, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Eugene Rozanov, David Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, and Béatrice Josse
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10235–10254, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023, 2023
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Previously, it has been suggested that springtime Arctic ozone depletion might worsen in the coming decades due to climate change, which might counteract the effect of reduced ozone-depleting substances. Here, we show with different chemistry–climate models that springtime Arctic ozone depletion will likely decrease in the future. Further, we explain why models show a large spread in the projected development of Arctic ozone depletion and use the model spread to constrain future projections.
Joao Carlos Martins Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelly, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Representing socio-economic impacts on fires is crucial to underpin the confidence in global fire models. Introducing these into INFERNO, reduces biases and improves the modelled burnt area (BA) trends when compared to observations. Including socio-economic factors in the representation of fires in Earth System Models is important for realistically simulating BA, quantifying trends in the recent past, and for understanding the main drivers of those at regional scales.
Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, and Sabine Brinkop
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 835–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-835-2023, 2023
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A global climate model is applied to quantify the impact of land transport, shipping, and aviation on aerosol and climate. The simulations show that these sectors provide relevant contributions to aerosol concentrations on the global scale and have a significant cooling effect on climate, which partly offsets their CO2 warming. Future projections under different scenarios show how the transport impacts can be related to the underlying storylines, with relevant consequences for policy-making.
Yiqi Zheng, Larry W. Horowitz, Raymond Menzel, David J. Paynter, Vaishali Naik, Jingyi Li, and Jingqiu Mao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8993–9007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8993-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8993-2023, 2023
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Biogenic secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) account for a large fraction of fine aerosol at the global scale. Using long-term measurements and a climate model, we investigate anthropogenic impacts on biogenic SOA at both decadal and centennial timescales. Results show that despite reductions in biogenic precursor emissions, SOA has been strongly amplified by anthropogenic emissions since the preindustrial era and exerts a cooling radiative forcing.
Michael J. Prather, Hao Guo, and Xin Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3299–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3299-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3299-2023, 2023
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The Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) measured the chemical composition in air parcels from 0–12 km altitude on 2 km horizontal by 80 m vertical scales for four seasons, resolving most scales of chemical heterogeneity. ATom is one of the first missions designed to calculate the chemical evolution of each parcel, providing semi-global diurnal budgets for ozone and methane. Observations covered the remote troposphere: Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins, Southern Ocean, Arctic basin, Antarctica.
Marie Dumont, Simon Gascoin, Marion Réveillet, Didier Voisin, François Tuzet, Laurent Arnaud, Mylène Bonnefoy, Montse Bacardit Peñarroya, Carlo Carmagnola, Alexandre Deguine, Aurélie Diacre, Lukas Dürr, Olivier Evrard, Firmin Fontaine, Amaury Frankl, Mathieu Fructus, Laure Gandois, Isabelle Gouttevin, Abdelfateh Gherab, Pascal Hagenmuller, Sophia Hansson, Hervé Herbin, Béatrice Josse, Bruno Jourdain, Irene Lefevre, Gaël Le Roux, Quentin Libois, Lucie Liger, Samuel Morin, Denis Petitprez, Alvaro Robledano, Martin Schneebeli, Pascal Salze, Delphine Six, Emmanuel Thibert, Jürg Trachsel, Matthieu Vernay, Léo Viallon-Galinier, and Céline Voiron
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3075–3094, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3075-2023, 2023
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Saharan dust outbreaks have profound effects on ecosystems, climate, health, and the cryosphere, but the spatial deposition pattern of Saharan dust is poorly known. Following the extreme dust deposition event of February 2021 across Europe, a citizen science campaign was launched to sample dust on snow over the Pyrenees and the European Alps. This campaign triggered wide interest and over 100 samples. The samples revealed the high variability of the dust properties within a single event.
Cyril Caram, Sophie Szopa, Anne Cozic, Slimane Bekki, Carlos A. Cuevas, and Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4041–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4041-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4041-2023, 2023
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We studied the role of halogenated compounds (containing chlorine, bromine and iodine), emitted by natural processes (mainly above the oceans), in the chemistry of the lower layers of the atmosphere. We introduced this relatively new chemistry in a three-dimensional climate–chemistry model and looked at how this chemistry will disrupt the ozone. We showed that the concentration of ozone decreases by 22 % worldwide and that of the atmospheric detergent, OH, by 8 %.
Emily Dowd, Chris Wilson, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Emanuel Gloor, Alistair Manning, and Ruth Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7363–7382, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7363-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7363-2023, 2023
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Surface observations of methane show that the seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) of methane is decreasing in the northern high latitudes (NHLs) but increased globally (1995–2020). The NHL decrease is counterintuitive, as we expect the SCA to increase with increasing concentrations. We use a chemical transport model to investigate changes in SCA in the NHLs. We find well-mixed methane and changes in emissions from Canada, the Middle East, and Europe are the largest contributors to the SCA in NHLs.
Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, and Zbigniew Klimont
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6647–6662, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, 2023
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Here we show that differences, in magnitude and trend, between recent global anthropogenic emission inventories have a notable influence on simulated regional abundances of anthropogenic aerosol over the 1990–2019 period. This, in turn, affects estimates of radiative forcing. Our findings form a basis for comparing existing and upcoming studies on anthropogenic aerosols using different emission inventories.
Daniel C. Anderson, Bryan N. Duncan, Julie M. Nicely, Junhua Liu, Sarah A. Strode, and Melanie B. Follette-Cook
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6319–6338, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6319-2023, 2023
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We describe a methodology that combines machine learning, satellite observations, and 3D chemical model output to infer the abundance of the hydroxyl radical (OH), a chemical that removes many trace gases from the atmosphere. The methodology successfully captures the variability of observed OH, although further observations are needed to evaluate absolute accuracy. Current satellite observations are of sufficient quality to infer OH, but retrieval validation in the remote tropics is needed.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
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This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Virginie Marécal, Ronan Voisin-Plessis, Tjarda Jane Roberts, Alessandro Aiuppa, Herizo Narivelo, Paul David Hamer, Béatrice Josse, Jonathan Guth, Luke Surl, and Lisa Grellier
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2873–2898, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2873-2023, 2023
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We implemented a halogen volcanic chemistry scheme in a one-dimensional modelling framework preparing for further use in a three-dimensional global chemistry-transport model. The results of the simulations for an eruption of Mt Etna in 2008, including various sensitivity tests, show a good consistency with previous modelling studies.
Glen Chua, Vaishali Naik, and Larry Wayne Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4955–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4955-2023, 2023
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The hydroxyl radical (OH) is an atmospheric
detergent, removing air pollutants and greenhouse gases like methane from the atmosphere. Thus, understanding how it is changing and responding to its various drivers is important for air quality and climate. We found that OH has increased by about 5 % globally from 1980 to 2014 in our model, mostly driven by increasing nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. This suggests potential climate tradeoffs from air quality policies solely targeting NOx emissions.
Forwood Wiser, Bryan K. Place, Siddhartha Sen, Havala O. T. Pye, Benjamin Yang, Daniel M. Westervelt, Daven K. Henze, Arlene M. Fiore, and V. Faye McNeill
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1801–1821, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1801-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1801-2023, 2023
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We developed a reduced model of atmospheric isoprene oxidation, AMORE-Isoprene 1.0. It was created using a new Automated Model Reduction (AMORE) method designed to simplify complex chemical mechanisms with minimal manual adjustments to the output. AMORE-Isoprene 1.0 has improved accuracy and similar size to other reduced isoprene mechanisms. When included in the CRACMM mechanism, it improved the accuracy of EPA’s CMAQ model predictions for the northeastern USA compared to observations.
Christopher D. Wells, Matthew Kasoar, Nicolas Bellouin, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3575–3593, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3575-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3575-2023, 2023
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The climate is altered by greenhouse gases and air pollutant particles, and such emissions are likely to change drastically in the future over Africa. Air pollutants do not travel far, so their climate effect depends on where they are emitted. This study uses a climate model to find the climate impacts of future African pollutant emissions being either high or low. The particles absorb and scatter sunlight, causing the ground nearby to be cooler, but elsewhere the increased heat causes warming.
Soufiane Karmouche, Evgenia Galytska, Jakob Runge, Gerald A. Meehl, Adam S. Phillips, Katja Weigel, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 309–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-309-2023, 2023
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This study uses a causal discovery method to evaluate the ability of climate models to represent the interactions between the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the Pacific decadal variability (PDV). The approach and findings in this study present a powerful methodology that can be applied to a number of environment-related topics, offering tremendous insights to improve the understanding of the complex Earth system and the state of the art of climate modeling.
Robin N. Thor, Mariano Mertens, Sigrun Matthes, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Sabine Brinkop, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, and Steven Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1459–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1459-2023, 2023
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We report on an inconsistency in the latitudinal distribution of aviation emissions between two versions of a data product which is widely used by researchers. From the available documentation, we do not expect such an inconsistency. We run a chemistry–climate model to compute the effect of the inconsistency in emissions on atmospheric chemistry and radiation and find that the radiative forcing associated with aviation ozone is 7.6 % higher when using the less recent version of the data.
Zixuan Jia, Carlos Ordóñez, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Steven T. Turnock, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2829–2842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, 2023
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This study investigates the influence of the winter large-scale circulation on daily concentrations of PM2.5 and their sensitivity to emissions. The new proposed circulation index can effectively distinguish different levels of air pollution and explain changes in PM2.5 sensitivity to emissions from local and surrounding regions. We then project future changes in PM2.5 concentrations using this index and find an increase in PM2.5 concentrations over the region due to climate change.
Phuc Thi Minh Ha, Yugo Kanaya, Fumikazu Taketani, Maria Dolores Andrés Hernández, Benjamin Schreiner, Klaus Pfeilsticker, and Kengo Sudo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 927–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-927-2023, 2023
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HONO affects tropospheric oxidizing capacity; thus, it is implemented into the chemistry–climate model CHASER. The model substantially underpredicts daytime HONO, while nitrate photolysis on surfaces can supplement the daytime HONO budget. Current HONO chemistry predicts reductions of 20.4 % for global tropospheric NOx, 40–67 % for OH, and 30–45 % for O3 in the summer North Pacific. In contrast, OH and O3 winter levels in China are greatly enhanced.
Viral Shah, Daniel J. Jacob, Ruijun Dang, Lok N. Lamsal, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, K. Folkert Boersma, Sebastian D. Eastham, Thibaud M. Fritz, Chelsea Thompson, Jeff Peischl, Ilann Bourgeois, Ilana B. Pollack, Benjamin A. Nault, Ronald C. Cohen, Pedro Campuzano-Jost, Jose L. Jimenez, Simone T. Andersen, Lucy J. Carpenter, Tomás Sherwen, and Mat J. Evans
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1227–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1227-2023, 2023
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NOx in the free troposphere (above 2 km) affects global tropospheric chemistry and the retrieval and interpretation of satellite NO2 measurements. We evaluate free tropospheric NOx in global atmospheric chemistry models and find that recycling NOx from its reservoirs over the oceans is faster than that simulated in the models, resulting in increases in simulated tropospheric ozone and OH. Over the U.S., free tropospheric NO2 contributes the majority of the tropospheric NO2 column in summer.
Michael J. Prather, Lucien Froidevaux, and Nathaniel J. Livesey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 843–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-843-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-843-2023, 2023
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From satellite data for nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone and temperature, we calculate the monthly loss of N2O and find it is increasing faster than expected, resulting in a shorter lifetime, which reduces the impact of anthropogenic emissions. We identify the cause as enhanced vertical lofting of high-N2O air into the tropical middle stratosphere, where it is destroyed photochemically. Because global warming is due in part to N2O, this finding presents a new negative climate-chemistry feedback.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Kathy S. Law, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Henrik Skov, Stephen R. Arnold, Joakim Langner, Jakob Boyd Pernov, Garance Bergeron, Ilann Bourgeois, Jesper H. Christensen, Rong-You Chien, Makoto Deushi, Xinyi Dong, Peter Effertz, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Greg Huey, Ulas Im, Rigel Kivi, Louis Marelle, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Jeff Peischl, David A. Plummer, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Tom Ryerson, Ragnhild Skeie, Sverre Solberg, Manu A. Thomas, Chelsea Thompson, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven T. Turnock, Knut von Salzen, and David W. Tarasick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 637–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-637-2023, 2023
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This study summarizes recent research on ozone in the Arctic, a sensitive and rapidly warming region. We find that the seasonal cycles of near-surface atmospheric ozone are variable depending on whether they are near the coast, inland, or at high altitude. Several global model simulations were evaluated, and we found that because models lack some of the ozone chemistry that is important for the coastal Arctic locations, they do not accurately simulate ozone there.
Manuel Schlund, Birgit Hassler, Axel Lauer, Bouwe Andela, Patrick Jöckel, Rémi Kazeroni, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Brian Medeiros, Valeriu Predoi, Stéphane Sénési, Jérôme Servonnat, Tobias Stacke, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Klaus Zimmermann, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 315–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-315-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-315-2023, 2023
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models. Originally, ESMValTool was designed to process reformatted output provided by large model intercomparison projects like the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here, we describe a new extension of ESMValTool that allows for reading and processing native climate model output, i.e., data that have not been reformatted before.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 99–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, 2023
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We have prepared a unique and unusual result from the recent ATom aircraft mission: a measurement-based derivation of the production and loss rates of ozone and methane over the ocean basins. These are the key products of chemistry models used in assessments but have thus far lacked observational metrics. It also shows the scales of variability of atmospheric chemical rates and provides a major challenge to the atmospheric models.
Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, Jared Lewis, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Malte Meinshausen, Matthew J. Gidden, Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura Wienpahl, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Piers M. Forster, Andy Reisinger, Roberto Schaeffer, and Keywan Riahi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9075–9109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, 2022
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Assessing hundreds or thousands of emission scenarios in terms of their global mean temperature implications requires standardised procedures of infilling, harmonisation, and probabilistic temperature assessments. We here present the open-source
climate-assessmentworkflow that was used in the IPCC AR6 Working Group III report. The paper provides key insight for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement.
Christof G. Beer, Johannes Hendricks, and Mattia Righi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15887–15907, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15887-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15887-2022, 2022
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Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) have important influences on cirrus clouds and the climate system; however, their global atmospheric distribution in the cirrus regime is still very uncertain. We present a global climatology of INPs under cirrus conditions derived from model simulations, considering the mineral dust, soot, crystalline ammonium sulfate, and glassy organics INP types. The comparison of respective INP concentrations indicates the large importance of ammonium sulfate particles.
Paul S. Jeffery, Kaley A. Walker, Chris E. Sioris, Chris D. Boone, Doug Degenstein, Gloria L. Manney, C. Thomas McElroy, Luis Millán, David A. Plummer, Niall J. Ryan, Patrick E. Sheese, and Jiansheng Zou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14709–14734, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14709-2022, 2022
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The upper troposphere–lower stratosphere is one of the most variable regions in the atmosphere. To improve our understanding of water vapour and ozone concentrations in this region, climatologies have been developed from 14 years of measurements from three Canadian satellite instruments. Horizontal and vertical coordinates have been chosen to minimize the effects of variability. To aid in analysis, model simulations have been used to characterize differences between instrument climatologies.
Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, David A. Bailey, Nan Rosenbloom, Brian Dobbins, Walker R. Lee, Mari Tye, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8221–8243, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, 2022
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Solar climate intervention using stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method of reducing global mean temperatures to reduce the worst consequences of climate change. We present a new modeling protocol aimed at simulating a plausible deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection and reproducibility of simulations using other Earth system models: Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI).
David S. Stevenson, Richard G. Derwent, Oliver Wild, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14243–14252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric methane’s growth rate rose by 50 % in 2020 relative to 2019. Lower nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions tend to increase methane’s atmospheric residence time; lower carbon monoxide (CO) and non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions decrease its lifetime. Combining model sensitivities with emission changes, we find that COVID-19 lockdown emission reductions can explain over half the observed increases in methane in 2020.
Sarah A. Strode, Ghassan Taha, Luke D. Oman, Robert Damadeo, David Flittner, Mark Schoeberl, Christopher E. Sioris, and Ryan Stauffer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 6145–6161, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-6145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-6145-2022, 2022
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We use a global atmospheric chemistry model simulation to generate scaling factors that account for the daily cycle of NO2 and ozone. These factors facilitate comparisons between sunrise and sunset observations from SAGE III/ISS and observations from other instruments. We provide the scaling factors as monthly zonal means for different latitudes and altitudes. We find that applying these factors yields more consistent comparisons between observations from SAGE III/ISS and other instruments.
Ville Leinonen, Harri Kokkola, Taina Yli-Juuti, Tero Mielonen, Thomas Kühn, Tuomo Nieminen, Simo Heikkinen, Tuuli Miinalainen, Tommi Bergman, Ken Carslaw, Stefano Decesari, Markus Fiebig, Tareq Hussein, Niku Kivekäs, Radovan Krejci, Markku Kulmala, Ari Leskinen, Andreas Massling, Nikos Mihalopoulos, Jane P. Mulcahy, Steffen M. Noe, Twan van Noije, Fiona M. O'Connor, Colin O'Dowd, Dirk Olivie, Jakob B. Pernov, Tuukka Petäjä, Øyvind Seland, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Henrik Skov, Erik Swietlicki, Thomas Tuch, Alfred Wiedensohler, Annele Virtanen, and Santtu Mikkonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12873–12905, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12873-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12873-2022, 2022
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We provide the first extensive comparison of detailed aerosol size distribution trends between in situ observations from Europe and five different earth system models. We investigated aerosol modes (nucleation, Aitken, and accumulation) separately and were able to show the differences between measured and modeled trends and especially their seasonal patterns. The differences in model results are likely due to complex effects of several processes instead of certain specific model features.
Hossain Mohammed Syedul Hoque, Kengo Sudo, Hitoshi Irie, Alessandro Damiani, Manish Naja, and Al Mashroor Fatmi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12559–12589, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12559-2022, 2022
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Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and formaldehyde (HCHO) are essential trace graces regulating tropospheric ozone chemistry. These trace constituents are measured using an optical passive remote sensing technique. In addition, NO2 and HCHO are simulated with a computer model and evaluated against the observations. Such evaluations are essential to assess model uncertainties and improve their predictability. The results yielded good agreement between the two datasets with some discrepancies.
Zhenze Liu, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12543–12557, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12543-2022, 2022
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Weaknesses in process representation in chemistry–climate models lead to biases in simulating surface ozone and to uncertainty in projections of future ozone change. We develop a deep learning model to demonstrate the feasibility of ozone bias correction and show its capability in providing improved assessments of the impacts of climate and emission changes on future air quality, along with valuable information to guide future model development.
Flossie Brown, Gerd A. Folberth, Stephen Sitch, Susanne Bauer, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Alexander W. Cheesman, Makoto Deushi, Inês Dos Santos Vieira, Corinne Galy-Lacaux, James Haywood, James Keeble, Lina M. Mercado, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Hans Verbeeck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12331–12352, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022, 2022
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Surface ozone can decrease plant productivity and impair human health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface ozone due to climate change over South America and Africa using Earth system models. We find that if the climate were to change according to the worst-case scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk of ozone exposure, but other areas will experience a climate benefit.
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
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Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Qirui Zhong, Nick Schutgens, Guido van der Werf, Twan van Noije, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Tero Mielonen, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Harri Kokkola, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, David Neubauer, Zak Kipling, Hitoshi Matsui, Paul Ginoux, Toshihiko Takemura, Philippe Le Sager, Samuel Rémy, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Kai Zhang, Jialei Zhu, Svetlana G. Tsyro, Gabriele Curci, Anna Protonotariou, Ben Johnson, Joyce E. Penner, Nicolas Bellouin, Ragnhild B. Skeie, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11009–11032, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, 2022
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Aerosol optical depth (AOD) errors for biomass burning aerosol (BBA) are evaluated in 18 global models against satellite datasets. Notwithstanding biases in satellite products, they allow model evaluations. We observe large and diverse model biases due to errors in BBA. Further interpretations of AOD diversities suggest large biases exist in key processes for BBA which require better constraining. These results can contribute to further model improvement and development.
Daniel C. Anderson, Melanie B. Follette-Cook, Sarah A. Strode, Julie M. Nicely, Junhua Liu, Peter D. Ivatt, and Bryan N. Duncan
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6341–6358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6341-2022, 2022
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The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the most important chemical in the atmosphere for removing certain pollutants, including methane, the second-most-important greenhouse gas. We present a methodology to create an easily modifiable parameterization that can calculate OH concentrations in a computationally efficient way. The parameterization, which predicts OH within 5 %, can be integrated into larger climate models to allow for calculation of the interactions between OH, methane, and other chemicals.
Vincent Huijnen, Philippe Le Sager, Marcus O. Köhler, Glenn Carver, Samuel Rémy, Johannes Flemming, Simon Chabrillat, Quentin Errera, and Twan van Noije
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6221–6241, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6221-2022, 2022
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We report on the first implementation of atmospheric chemistry and aerosol as part of the OpenIFS model, based on the CAMS global model. We give an overview of the model and evaluate two reference model configurations, with and without the stratospheric chemistry extension, against a variety of observational datasets. This OpenIFS version with atmospheric composition components is open to the scientific user community under a standard OpenIFS license.
Yanfeng He, Hossain Mohammed Syedul Hoque, and Kengo Sudo
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5627–5650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5627-2022, 2022
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Lightning-produced NOx (LNOx) is a major source of NOx. Hence, it is crucial to improve the prediction accuracy of lightning and LNOx in chemical climate models. By modifying existing lightning schemes and testing them in the chemical climate model CHASER, we improved the prediction accuracy of lightning in CHASER. Different lightning schemes respond very differently under global warming, which indicates further research is needed considering the reproducibility of long-term trends of lightning.
Jason E. Williams, Vincent Huijnen, Idir Bouarar, Mehdi Meziane, Timo Schreurs, Sophie Pelletier, Virginie Marécal, Beatrice Josse, and Johannes Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4657–4687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4657-2022, 2022
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The global CAMS air quality model is used for providing tropospheric ozone information to end users. This paper updates the chemical mechanism employed (CBA) and compares it against two other mechanisms (MOCAGE, MOZART) and a multi-decadal dataset based on a previous version of CBA. We perform extensive validation for the US using multiple surface and aircraft datasets, providing an assessment of biases and the extent of correlation across different seasons during 2014.
Shipra Jain, Ruth M. Doherty, David Sexton, Steven Turnock, Chaofan Li, Zixuan Jia, Zongbo Shi, and Lin Pei
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7443–7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022, 2022
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We provide a range of future projections of winter haze and clear conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using multiple simulations from a climate model for the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). The frequency of haze conducive weather is likely to increase whereas the frequency of clear weather is likely to decrease in future. The total number of hazy days for a given winter can be as much as ˜3.5 times higher than the number of clear days over the NCP.
Zixuan Jia, Ruth M. Doherty, Carlos Ordóñez, Chaofan Li, Oliver Wild, Shipra Jain, and Xiao Tang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6471–6487, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6471-2022, 2022
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This study investigates the modulation of daily PM2.5 over three major populated regions in China by regional meteorology and large-scale circulation during winter. These results demonstrate the benefits of considering the large-scale circulation for air quality studies. The novel circulation indices proposed here can explain a considerable fraction of the day-to-day variability of PM2.5 and can be combined with regional meteorology to improve our capability to predict the variability of PM2.5.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Tahya Weiss-Gibbons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5775–5828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, 2022
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Air pollutants, like ozone and soot, play a role in both global warming and air quality. Atmospheric models are often used to provide information to policy makers about current and future conditions under different emissions scenarios. In order to have confidence in those simulations, in this study we compare simulated air pollution from 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric models to measured air pollution in order to assess how well the models perform.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
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The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Elisa Bergas-Massó, María Gonçalves-Ageitos, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, Akinori Ito, Eleni Athanasopoulou, Athanasios Nenes, Maria Kanakidou, Maarten C. Krol, and Evangelos Gerasopoulos
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3079–3120, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3079-2022, 2022
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We here describe the implementation of atmospheric multiphase processes in the EC-Earth Earth system model. We provide global budgets of oxalate, sulfate, and iron-containing aerosols, along with an analysis of the links among atmospheric composition, aqueous-phase processes, and aerosol dissolution, supported by comparison to observations. This work is a first step towards an interactive calculation of the deposition of bioavailable atmospheric iron coupled to the model’s ocean component.
Michael J. Prather
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 703–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric CO2 fluctuations point to changes in fossil fuel emissions plus natural and perturbed variations in the natural carbon cycle. One unstudied source of variability is the stratosphere, where the influx of aged CO2-depleted air can cause surface fluctuations. Using modeling and, separately, scaling the observed N2O variability, I find that stratosphere-driven surface variability in CO2 is not a significant uncertainty (at most 10 % of the observed interannual variability).
Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Henk Eskes, Kengo Sudo, Masayuki Takigawa, and Yugo Kanaya
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 1703–1728, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1703-2022, 2022
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This study gives a systematic comparison of TROPOMI version 1.2 and OMI QA4ECV tropospheric NO2 column through global chemical data assimilation (DA) integration for April–May 2018. DA performance is controlled by measurement sensitivities, retrieval errors, and coverage. Due to reduced errors in TROPOMI, agreements against assimilated and independent observations were improved by TROPOMI DA compared to OMI DA. These results demonstrate that TROPOMI DA improves global analyses of NO2 and ozone.
Henry Bowman, Steven Turnock, Susanne E. Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Makoto Deushi, Naga Oshima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Larry Horowitz, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Dagmar Kubistin, and David D. Parrish
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3507–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022, 2022
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A full understanding of ozone in the troposphere requires investigation of its temporal variability over all timescales. Model simulations show that the northern midlatitude ozone seasonal cycle shifted with industrial development (1850–2014), with an increasing magnitude and a later summer peak. That shift reached a maximum in the mid-1980s, followed by a reversal toward the preindustrial cycle. The few available observations, beginning in the 1970s, are consistent with the model simulations.
Dianyi Li, Drew Shindell, Dian Ding, Xiao Lu, Lin Zhang, and Yuqiang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2625–2638, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2625-2022, 2022
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In this study, we applied chemical transport model simulation with the latest annual anthropogenic emission inventory to study the long-term trend of ozone-induced crop production losses from 2010 to 2017 in China. We find that overall the ozone-induced crop production loss in China is significant and the annual average economic losses for wheat, rice, maize, and soybean in China are USD 9.55 billion, USD 8.53 billion, USD 2.23 billion, and USD 1.16 billion respectively, over the 8 years.
Daniel J. Ruiz and Michael J. Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2079–2093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, 2022
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The stratosphere is an important source of tropospheric ozone, which affects climate, chemistry, and air quality, but is extremely difficult to quantify given the large production and loss terms in the troposphere. Here, we use other gases that are well observed and quantified as a reference to test our simulations of ozone transport in the atmosphere. This allows us to better constrain the stratospheric source of ozone and also offers guidance to improve future simulations of ozone transport.
Andrew O. Langford, Christoph J. Senff, Raul J. Alvarez II, Ken C. Aikin, Sunil Baidar, Timothy A. Bonin, W. Alan Brewer, Jerome Brioude, Steven S. Brown, Joel D. Burley, Dani J. Caputi, Stephen A. Conley, Patrick D. Cullis, Zachary C. J. Decker, Stéphanie Evan, Guillaume Kirgis, Meiyun Lin, Mariusz Pagowski, Jeff Peischl, Irina Petropavlovskikh, R. Bradley Pierce, Thomas B. Ryerson, Scott P. Sandberg, Chance W. Sterling, Ann M. Weickmann, and Li Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1707–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1707-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1707-2022, 2022
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The Fires, Asian, and Stratospheric Transport–Las Vegas Ozone Study (FAST-LVOS) combined lidar, aircraft, and in situ measurements with global models to investigate the contributions of stratospheric intrusions, regional and Asian pollution, and wildfires to background ozone in the southwestern US during May and June 2017 and demonstrated that these processes contributed to background ozone levels that exceeded 70 % of the US National Ambient Air Quality Standard during the 6-week campaign.
Tommi Bergman, Risto Makkonen, Roland Schrödner, Erik Swietlicki, Vaughan T. J. Phillips, Philippe Le Sager, and Twan van Noije
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 683–713, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-683-2022, 2022
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We describe in this paper the implementation of a process-based secondary organic aerosol and new particle formation scheme within the chemistry transport model TM5-MP version 1.2. The performance of the model simulations for the year 2010 is evaluated against in situ observations, ground-based remote sensing and satellite retrievals. Overall, the simulated aerosol fields are improved, although in some areas the model shows a decline in performance.
Jingmin Li, Johannes Hendricks, Mattia Righi, and Christof G. Beer
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 509–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-509-2022, 2022
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The growing complexity of global aerosol models results in a large number of parameters that describe the aerosol number, size, and composition. This makes the analysis, evaluation, and interpretation of the model results a challenge. To overcome this difficulty, we apply a machine learning classification method to identify clusters of specific aerosol types in global aerosol simulations. Our results demonstrate the spatial distributions and characteristics of these identified aerosol clusters.
Zhenze Liu, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1209–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1209-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1209-2022, 2022
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Tropospheric ozone is important to future air quality and climate, and changing emissions and climate influence ozone. We investigate the evolution of ozone and ozone sensitivity from the present day (2004–2014) to the future (2045–2055) and explore the main drivers of ozone changes from global and regional perspectives. This helps guide suitable emission control strategies to mitigate ozone pollution.
Matthieu Plu, Guillaume Bigeard, Bojan Sič, Emanuele Emili, Luca Bugliaro, Laaziz El Amraoui, Jonathan Guth, Beatrice Josse, Lucia Mona, and Dennis Piontek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3731–3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, 2021
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Volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, may have huge economic consequences due to flight cancellations. In this article, we demonstrate the benefits of source term improvement and of data assimilation for quantifying volcanic ash concentrations. The work, which was supported by the EUNADICS-AV project, is the first one, to our knowledge, that demonstrates the benefit of the assimilation of ground-based lidar data over Europe during an eruption.
Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, Axel Timmermann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Clara Deser, Jim Edwards, Ji-Eun Kim, Isla R. Simpson, Karl Stein, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Tamás Bódai, Eui-Seok Chung, Lei Huang, Who M. Kim, Jean-François Lamarque, Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, and Stephen G. Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, 2021
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A large ensemble of simulations with 100 members has been conducted with the state-of-the-art CESM2 Earth system model, using historical and SSP3-7.0 forcing. Our main finding is that there are significant changes in the variance of the Earth system in response to anthropogenic forcing, with these changes spanning a broad range of variables important to impacts for human populations and ecosystems.
Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, and Christof Gerhard Beer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17267–17289, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17267-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17267-2021, 2021
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A global climate model is applied to simulate the impact of aviation soot on natural cirrus clouds. A large number of numerical experiments are performed to analyse how the quantification of the resulting climate impact is affected by known uncertainties. These concern the ability of aviation soot to nucleate ice and the role of model dynamics. Our results show that both aspects are important for the quantification of this effect and that discrepancies among different model studies still exist.
Yuqiang Zhang, Drew Shindell, Karl Seltzer, Lu Shen, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Qiang Zhang, Bo Zheng, Jia Xing, Zhe Jiang, and Lei Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16051–16065, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16051-2021, 2021
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In this study, we use a global chemical transport model to simulate the effects on global air quality and human health due to emission changes in China from 2010 to 2017. By performing sensitivity analysis, we found that the air pollution control policies not only decrease the air pollutant concentration but also bring significant co-benefits in air quality to downwind regions. The benefits for the improved air pollution are dominated by PM2.5.
João C. Teixeira, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nadine Unger, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6515–6539, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6515-2021, 2021
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Fire constitutes a key process in the Earth system, being driven by climate as well as affecting climate. However, studies on the effects of fires on atmospheric composition and climate have been limited to date. This work implements and assesses the coupling of an interactive fire model with atmospheric composition, comparing it to an offline approach. This approach shows good performance at a global scale. However, regional-scale limitations lead to a bias in modelling fire emissions.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Jonas Gliß, Susanne E. Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Paul Ginoux, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Twan van Noije, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Remy, Michael Schulz, Philip Stier, Camilla W. Stjern, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15929–15947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, 2021
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Absorption of shortwave radiation by aerosols can modify precipitation and clouds but is poorly constrained in models. A total of 15 different aerosol models from AeroCom phase III have reported total aerosol absorption, and for the first time, 11 of these models have reported in a consistent experiment the contributions to absorption from black carbon, dust, and organic aerosol. Here, we document the model diversity in aerosol absorption.
Hossain M. S. Hoque, Kengo Sudo, Hitoshi Irie, Alessandro Damiani, and Al Mashroor Fatmi
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-815, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-815, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and formaldehyde (HCHO) profiles, retrieved from remote sensing observations, are used to evaluate the global chemistry transport model CHASER. Overall, CHASER has demonstrated good skills in reproducing the seasonal climatology of NO2 and HCHO on a local scale at sites in South and East Asia. Around mountainous terrains, the model performs better on a regional scale. The improved spatial resolution of CHASER can likely reduce the observed discrepancies in the datasets.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Yuqiang Zhang, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Gregory Faluvegi, Bjørn H. Samset, Timothy Andrews, Dirk Olivié, Toshihiko Takemura, and Xuhui Lee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13797–13809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13797-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13797-2021, 2021
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Previous studies showed that black carbon (BC) could warm the surface with decreased incoming radiation. With climate models, we found that the surface energy redistribution plays a more crucial role in surface temperature compared with other forcing agents. Though BC could reduce the surface heating, the energy dissipates less efficiently, which is manifested by reduced convective and evaporative cooling, thereby warming the surface.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13729–13746, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, 2021
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The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission built a climatology of the chemical composition of tropospheric air parcels throughout the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The level of detail allows us to reconstruct the photochemical budgets of O3 and CH4 over these vast, remote regions. We find that most of the chemical heterogeneity is captured at the resolution used in current global chemistry models and that the majority of reactivity occurs in the
hottest20 % of parcels.
Michael Biggart, Jenny Stocker, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, David Carruthers, Sue Grimmond, Yiqun Han, Pingqing Fu, and Simone Kotthaus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13687–13711, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13687-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13687-2021, 2021
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Heat-related illnesses are of increasing concern in China given its rapid urbanisation and our ever-warming climate. We examine the relative impacts that land surface properties and anthropogenic heat have on the urban heat island (UHI) in Beijing using ADMS-Urban. Air temperature measurements and satellite-derived land surface temperatures provide valuable means of evaluating modelled spatiotemporal variations. This work provides critical information for urban planners and UHI mitigation.
Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Philippe Le Sager, Declan O'Donnell, Risto Makkonen, María Gonçalves-Ageitos, Ralf Döscher, Uwe Fladrich, Jost von Hardenberg, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Hannele Korhonen, Anton Laakso, Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Pirkka Ollinaho, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Thomas Reerink, Roland Schrödner, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5637–5668, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5637-2021, 2021
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This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in CMIP6. We give an overview of the model and describe in detail how it differs from its predecessor and the other EC-Earth3 configurations. The model's performance is characterized using coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The model has an effective equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.9 °C and a transient climate response of 2.1 °C.
Zhenze Liu, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Michael Hollaway, and Fiona M. O’Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10689–10706, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10689-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10689-2021, 2021
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Surface ozone (O3) has become the main cause of atmospheric pollution in the summertime in China since 2013. We find that 70 % reductions in NOx emissions are required to reduce O3 pollution in most of industrial regions of China, and controls in VOC emissions are very important. The new chemical scheme developed for a global chemistry–climate model not only captures the regional air pollution but also benefits the future studies of regional air-quality–climate interactions.
Carl Thomas, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Gerald Lim, Joanna Haigh, and Peer Nowack
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 581–608, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-581-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-581-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric blocking events are complex large-scale weather patterns which block the path of the jet stream. They are associated with heat waves in summer and cold snaps in winter. Blocking is poorly understood, and the effect of climate change is not clear. Here, we present a new method to study blocking using unsupervised machine learning. We show that this method performs better than previous methods used. These results show the potential for unsupervised learning in atmospheric science.
Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Yves Balkanski, Samuel Albani, Tommi Bergman, Ken Carslaw, Anne Cozic, Chris Dearden, Beatrice Marticorena, Martine Michou, Twan van Noije, Pierre Nabat, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Joseph M. Prospero, Philippe Le Sager, Michael Schulz, and Catherine Scott
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10295–10335, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, 2021
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Thousands of tons of dust are emitted into the atmosphere every year, producing important impacts on the Earth system. However, current global climate models are not yet able to reproduce dust emissions, transport and depositions with the desirable accuracy. Our study analyses five different Earth system models to report aspects to be improved to reproduce better available observations, increase the consistency between models and therefore decrease the current uncertainties.
Alexander Kuhn-Régnier, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Peer Nowack, Matthias Forkel, I. Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 18, 3861–3879, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3861-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3861-2021, 2021
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Along with current climate, vegetation, and human influences, long-term accumulation of biomass affects fires. Here, we find that including the influence of antecedent vegetation and moisture improves our ability to predict global burnt area. Additionally, the length of the preceding period which needs to be considered for accurate predictions varies across regions.
Phuc T. M. Ha, Ryoki Matsuda, Yugo Kanaya, Fumikazu Taketani, and Kengo Sudo
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3813–3841, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3813-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3813-2021, 2021
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Policies to mitigate air pollution require an understanding of tropospheric oxidizing capacity, which is controlled by mechanisms including heterogeneous processes on aerosols and clouds. This study uses a chemistry–climate model CHASER (MIROC) to explore the heterogeneous effects in the troposphere for -2.96 % O3, -2.19 % NOx, +3.28 % CO, and +5.91 % CH4 lifetime. Besides, these processes affect polluted areas and remote areas and can bring challenges to pollution reduction efforts.
Robin D. Lamboll, Chris D. Jones, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephanie Fiedler, Bjørn H. Samset, Nathan P. Gillett, Joeri Rogelj, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3683–3695, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, 2021
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Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions. We can estimate the changes in emissions at a country level, but to make predictions about how this will affect our climate, we need more precise information about where the emissions happen. Here we combine older estimates of where emissions normally occur with very recent estimates of sector activity levels to enable different groups to make simulations of the climatic effects of lockdown.
Syuichi Itahashi, Baozhu Ge, Keiichi Sato, Zhe Wang, Junichi Kurokawa, Jiani Tan, Kan Huang, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Jie Li, Mizuo Kajino, Gregory R. Carmichael, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8709–8734, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8709-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8709-2021, 2021
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This study presents the detailed analysis of acid deposition over southeast Asia based on the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) phase III. Simulated wet deposition is evaluated with observation data from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). The difficulties of models to capture observations are related to the model performance on precipitation. The precipitation-adjusted approach was applied, and the distribution of wet deposition was successfully revised.
Na Zhao, Xinyi Dong, Kan Huang, Joshua S. Fu, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Kengo Sudo, Daven Henze, Tom Kucsera, Yun Fat Lam, Mian Chin, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8637–8654, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8637-2021, 2021
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Black carbon acts as a strong climate forcer, especially in vulnerable pristine regions such as the Arctic. This work utilizes ensemble modeling results from the task force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 to investigate the responses of Arctic black carbon and surface temperature to various source emission reductions. East Asia contributed the most to Arctic black carbon. The response of Arctic temperature to black carbon was substantially more sensitive than the global average.
Katja Weigel, Lisa Bock, Bettina K. Gier, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Kemisola Adeniyi, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Peter Berg, Louis-Philippe Caron, Irene Cionni, Susanna Corti, Niels Drost, Alasdair Hunter, Llorenç Lledó, Christian Wilhelm Mohr, Aytaç Paçal, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Valeriu Predoi, Marit Sandstad, Jana Sillmann, Andreas Sterl, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3159–3184, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021, 2021
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This work presents new diagnostics for the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 on the hydrological cycle, extreme events, impact assessment, regional evaluations, and ensemble member selection. The ESMValTool v2.0 diagnostics are developed by a large community of scientists aiming to facilitate the evaluation and comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) with a focus on the ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
Yann Cohen, Virginie Marécal, Béatrice Josse, and Valérie Thouret
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2659–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2659-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2659-2021, 2021
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Assessing long-term chemistry–climate simulations with in situ and frequent observations near the tropopause is possible with the IAGOS commercial aircraft data set. This study presents a method that distributes the IAGOS data (ozone and CO) on a monthly model grid, limiting the impact of resolution for the evaluation of the modelled chemical fields. We applied it to the CCMI REF-C1SD simulation from the MOCAGE CTM and notably highlighted well-reproduced O3 behaviour in the lower stratosphere.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
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We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Daniel M. Westervelt, Arlene M. Fiore, Colleen B. Baublitz, and Gustavo Correa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6799–6810, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6799-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6799-2021, 2021
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Particulate air pollution in the atmosphere can impact the availability of gas-phase chemical constituents, which can then have feedbacks on gas-phase air pollutants. We use a chemistry–climate computer model to simulate the impact of particulate pollution from three major world regions on gas-phase chemical constituents. We find that surface-level ozone air pollution decreases by up to 5 ppbv over China in response to Chinese particulate air pollution, which has implications for policy.
Yawei Qu, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Tijian Wang, Matthew Kasoar, Chris Wells, Cheng Yuan, Sunil Varma, and Laura Mansfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5705–5718, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5705-2021, 2021
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The meteorological effect of aerosols on tropospheric ozone is investigated using global atmospheric modelling. We found that aerosol-induced meteorological effects act to reduce modelled ozone concentrations over China, which brings the simulation closer to observed levels. Our work sheds light on understudied processes affecting the levels of tropospheric gaseous pollutants and provides a basis for evaluating such processes using a combination of observations and model sensitivity experiments.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Paul T. Griffiths, Lee T. Murray, Guang Zeng, Youngsub Matthew Shin, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Ian E. Galbally, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Jane Liu, Omid Moeini, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, David Tarasick, Simone Tilmes, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Paul J. Young, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4187–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, 2021
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We analyse the CMIP6 Historical and future simulations for tropospheric ozone, a species which is important for many aspects of atmospheric chemistry. We show that the current generation of models agrees well with observations, being particularly successful in capturing trends in surface ozone and its vertical distribution in the troposphere. We analyse the factors that control ozone and show that they evolve over the period of the CMIP6 experiments.
Peter Sherman, Meng Gao, Shaojie Song, Alex T. Archibald, Nathan Luke Abraham, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew Shindell, Gregory Faluvegi, and Michael B. McElroy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3593–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3593-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3593-2021, 2021
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The aims here are to assess the role of aerosols in India's monsoon precipitation and to determine the relative contributions from Chinese and Indian emissions using CMIP6 models. We find that increased sulfur emissions reduce precipitation, which is primarily dynamically driven due to spatial shifts in convection over the region. A significant increase in precipitation (up to ~ 20 %) is found only when both Indian and Chinese sulfate emissions are regulated.
Qi Tang, Michael J. Prather, Juno Hsu, Daniel J. Ruiz, Philip J. Cameron-Smith, Shaocheng Xie, and Jean-Christophe Golaz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1219–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1219-2021, 2021
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021
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This study finds how and why five state-of-the-art global climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosols differ when simulating the aftermath of large volcanic injections as part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP). We identify and explain the consequences of significant disparities in the underlying physics and chemistry currently in some of the models, which are problems likely not unique to the models participating in this study.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Patrick E. Sheese, Kaley A. Walker, Chris D. Boone, Doug A. Degenstein, Felicia Kolonjari, David Plummer, Douglas E. Kinnison, Patrick Jöckel, and Thomas von Clarmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 1425–1438, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-1425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-1425-2021, 2021
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Output from climate chemistry models (CMAM, EMAC, and WACCM) is used to estimate the expected geophysical variability of ozone concentrations between coincident satellite instrument measurement times and geolocations. We use the Canadian ACE-FTS and OSIRIS instruments as a case study. Ensemble mean estimates are used to optimize coincidence criteria between the two instruments, allowing for the use of more coincident profiles while providing an estimate of the geophysical variation.
Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson, Ron Kahana, James Keeble, Byeonghyeon Kim, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Mark Richardson, Eddy Robertson, Jeongbyn Seo, Sungbo Shim, João C. Teixeira, Steven T. Turnock, Jonny Williams, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Stephanie Woodward, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1211–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, 2021
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This paper calculates how changes in emissions and/or concentrations of different atmospheric constituents since the pre-industrial era have altered the Earth's energy budget at the present day using a metric called effective radiative forcing. The impact of land use change is also assessed. We find that individual contributions do not add linearly, and different Earth system interactions can affect the magnitude of the calculated effective radiative forcing.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
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We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
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This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Ales Kuchar, William Ball, Pavle Arsenovic, Ellis Remsberg, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kunze, David A. Plummer, Andrea Stenke, Daniel Marsh, Doug Kinnison, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, 2021
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The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model simulations and satellite observations using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. MLR analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust solar signal in both H2O and CO. The model results show a general agreement with observations reproducing a negative/positive solar signal in H2O/CO. The pattern of the solar signal varies among the considered models, reflecting some differences in the model setup.
Jonas Gliß, Augustin Mortier, Michael Schulz, Elisabeth Andrews, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E. Bauer, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Huisheng Bian, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, Jan J. Griesfeller, Andreas Heckel, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Paolo Laj, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, David Neubauer, Twan van Noije, Peter North, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Rémy, Larisa Sogacheva, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Svetlana G. Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 87–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, 2021
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Simulated aerosol optical properties as well as the aerosol life cycle are investigated for 14 global models participating in the AeroCom initiative. Considerable diversity is found in the simulated aerosol species emissions and lifetimes, also resulting in a large diversity in the simulated aerosol mass, composition, and optical properties. A comparison with observations suggests that, on average, current models underestimate the direct effect of aerosol on the atmosphere radiation budget.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin Johnson, Colin G. Jones, Adam C. Povey, Catherine E. Scott, Alistair Sellar, Steven T. Turnock, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Nathan Luke Abraham, Martin B. Andrews, Nicolas Bellouin, Jo Browse, Ken S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Matthew Glover, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Catherine Hardacre, Richard Hill, Ben Johnson, Andy Jones, Zak Kipling, Graham Mann, James Mollard, Fiona M. O'Connor, Julien Palmiéri, Carly Reddington, Steven T. Rumbold, Mark Richardson, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Philip Stier, Marc Stringer, Yongming Tang, Jeremy Walton, Stephanie Woodward, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6383–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, 2020
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Aerosols are an important component of the Earth system. Here, we comprehensively document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in the physical and Earth system models, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1. This study provides a useful characterisation of the aerosol climatology in both models, facilitating the understanding of the numerous aerosol–climate interaction studies that will be conducted for CMIP6 and beyond.
Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020, 2020
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As an important measure of climate change, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) describes the change in surface temperature after a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) show a wide range in ECS. Emergent constraints are a technique to reduce uncertainties in ECS with observational data. Emergent constraints developed with data from CMIP phase 5 show reduced skill and higher ECS ranges when applied to CMIP6 data.
Bettina K. Gier, Michael Buchwitz, Maximilian Reuter, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Veronika Eyring
Biogeosciences, 17, 6115–6144, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6115-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6115-2020, 2020
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Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phases 5 and 6 are compared to a satellite data product of column-averaged CO2 mole fractions (XCO2). The previously believed discrepancy of the negative trend in seasonal cycle amplitude in the satellite product, which is not seen in in situ data nor in the models, is attributed to a sampling characteristic. Furthermore, CMIP6 models are shown to have made progress in reproducing the observed XCO2 time series compared to CMIP5.
Hajime Akimoto, Tatsuya Nagashima, Natsumi Kawano, Li Jie, Joshua S. Fu, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15003–15014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15003-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15003-2020, 2020
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In order to perform proper model simulation of ozone near the ground in the coastal area of northeastern Asia, it has been found that it is very important to select appropriate dry deposition velocities of ozone on the oceanic water of specific area of the northwestern Pacific. Empirical measurement of the mixing ratios and dry deposition flux of ozone over the ocean in this area is highly recommended.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
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A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
Camilla W. Stjern, Bjørn H. Samset, Olivier Boucher, Trond Iversen, Jean-François Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Drew Shindell, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13467–13480, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020, 2020
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The span between the warmest and coldest temperatures over a day is a climate parameter that influences both agriculture and human health. Using data from 10 models, we show how individual climate drivers such as greenhouse gases and aerosols produce distinctly different responses in this parameter in high-emission regions. Given the high uncertainty in future aerosol emissions, this improved understanding of the temperature responses may ultimately help these regions prepare for future changes.
Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Nikos Daskalakis, Angelos Gkouvousis, Andreas Hilboll, Twan van Noije, Jason E. Williams, Philippe Le Sager, Vincent Huijnen, Sander Houweling, Tommi Bergman, Johann Rasmus Nüß, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Maria Kanakidou, and Maarten C. Krol
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5507–5548, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5507-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5507-2020, 2020
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This work documents and evaluates the detailed tropospheric gas-phase chemical mechanism MOGUNTIA in the three-dimensional chemistry transport model TM5-MP. The Rosenbrock solver, as generated by the KPP software, is implemented in the chemistry code, which can successfully replace the classical Euler backward integration method. The MOGUNTIA scheme satisfactorily simulates a large suite of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that are observed in the atmosphere at significant levels.
Augustin Mortier, Jonas Gliß, Michael Schulz, Wenche Aas, Elisabeth Andrews, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, Jenny Hand, Brent Holben, Hua Zhang, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Paolo Laj, Thibault Lurton, Gunnar Myhre, David Neubauer, Dirk Olivié, Knut von Salzen, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13355–13378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13355-2020, 2020
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We present a multiparameter analysis of the aerosol trends over the last 2 decades in the different regions of the world. In most of the regions, ground-based observations show a decrease in aerosol content in both the total atmospheric column and at the surface. The use of climate models, assessed against these observations, reveals however an increase in the total aerosol load, which is not seen with the sole use of observation due to partial coverage in space and time.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13011–13022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, 2020
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Decadal trends and variations in OH are critical for understanding atmospheric CH4 evolution. We quantify the impacts of OH trends and variations on the CH4 budget by conducting CH4 inversions on a decadal scale with an ensemble of OH fields. We find the negative OH anomalies due to enhanced fires can reduce the optimized CH4 emissions by up to 10 Tg yr−1 during El Niño years and the positive OH trend from 1986 to 2010 results in a ∼ 23 Tg yr−1 additional increase in optimized CH4 emissions.
David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Simone Tilmes, Guang Zeng, Lee T. Murray, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Sungbo Shim, Larry W. Horowitz, Lori T. Sentman, and Louisa Emmons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12905–12920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, 2020
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We present historical trends in atmospheric oxidizing capacity (OC) since 1850 from the latest generation of global climate models and compare these with estimates from measurements. OC controls levels of many key reactive gases, including methane (CH4). We find small model trends up to 1980, then increases of about 9 % up to 2014, disagreeing with (uncertain) measurement-based trends. Major drivers of OC trends are emissions of CH4, NOx, and CO; these will be important for future CH4 trends.
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, 2020
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Computational limits mean that we cannot run our most comprehensive climate models for all applications of interest. In such cases, reduced complexity models (RCMs) are used. Here, researchers working on 15 different models present the first systematic community effort to evaluate and compare RCMs: the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). Our research ensures that users of RCMs can more easily evaluate the strengths, weaknesses and limitations of their tools.
Xiaoning Xie, Gunnar Myhre, Xiaodong Liu, Xinzhou Li, Zhengguo Shi, Hongli Wang, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Drew Shindell, Toshihiko Takemura, and Yangang Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11823–11839, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11823-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11823-2020, 2020
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Black carbon (BC) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) enhance precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) of Asian summer monsoon (ASM). Further analysis reveals distinct mechanisms controlling BC- and GHG-induced ASM P–E increases. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect of enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, the GHG-induced change by the thermodynamic effect of increasing atmospheric water vapor. This results from different atmospheric temperature feedbacks due to BC and GHGs.
Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Kevin Bowman, Takashi Sekiya, Henk Eskes, Folkert Boersma, Helen Worden, Nathaniel Livesey, Vivienne H. Payne, Kengo Sudo, Yugo Kanaya, Masayuki Takigawa, and Koji Ogochi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2223–2259, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2223-2020, 2020
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This study presents the results from the Tropospheric Chemistry Reanalysis version 2 (TCR-2) for 2005–2018 obtained from the assimilation of multiple satellite measurements of ozone, CO, NO2, HNO3, and SO2 from the OMI, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2, TES, MLS, and MOPITT instruments. The evaluation results demonstrate the capability of the reanalysis products to improve understanding of the processes controlling variations in atmospheric composition, including long-term changes in air quality and emissions.
Christof G. Beer, Johannes Hendricks, Mattia Righi, Bernd Heinold, Ina Tegen, Silke Groß, Daniel Sauer, Adrian Walser, and Bernadett Weinzierl
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4287–4303, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4287-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4287-2020, 2020
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Mineral dust aerosol plays an important role in the climate system. Previously, dust emissions have often been represented in global models by prescribed monthly-mean emission fields representative of a specific year. We now apply an online calculation of wind-driven dust emissions. This results in an improved agreement with observations, due to a better representation of the highly variable dust emissions. Increasing the model resolution led to an additional performance gain.
Baozhu Ge, Syuichi Itahashi, Keiichi Sato, Danhui Xu, Junhua Wang, Fan Fan, Qixin Tan, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Jie Li, Mizuo Kajino, Hong Liao, Meigen Zhang, Zhe Wang, Meng Li, Jung-Hun Woo, Junichi Kurokawa, Yuepeng Pan, Qizhong Wu, Xuejun Liu, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10587–10610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10587-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10587-2020, 2020
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Performances of the simulated deposition for different reduced N (Nr) species in China were conducted with the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia. Results showed that simulated wet deposition of oxidized N was overestimated in northeastern China and underestimated in south China, but Nr was underpredicted in all regions by all models. Oxidized N has larger uncertainties than Nr, indicating that the chemical reaction process is one of the most importance factors affecting model performance.
Axel Lauer, Veronika Eyring, Omar Bellprat, Lisa Bock, Bettina K. Gier, Alasdair Hunter, Ruth Lorenz, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Daniel Senftleben, Katja Weigel, and Sabrina Zechlau
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4205–4228, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4205-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4205-2020, 2020
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool is a community software tool designed for evaluation and analysis of climate models. New features of version 2.0 include analysis scripts for important large-scale features in climate models, diagnostics for extreme events, regional model and impact evaluation. In this paper, newly implemented climate metrics, emergent constraints for climate-relevant feedbacks and diagnostics for future model projections are described and illustrated with examples.
Li Zhang, Meiyun Lin, Andrew O. Langford, Larry W. Horowitz, Christoph J. Senff, Elizabeth Klovenski, Yuxuan Wang, Raul J. Alvarez II, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Patrick Cullis, Chance W. Sterling, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Steven S. Brown, Zachary C. J. Decker, Guillaume Kirgis, and Stephen Conley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10379–10400, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10379-2020, 2020
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Measuring and quantifying the sources of elevated springtime ozone in the southwestern US is challenging but relevant to the implications for control policy. Here we use intensive field measurements and two global models to study ozone sources in the region. We find that ozone from the stratosphere, wildfires, and Asia is an important source of high-ozone events in the region. Our analysis also helps understand the uncertainties in ozone simulations with individual models.
María A. Burgos, Elisabeth Andrews, Gloria Titos, Angela Benedetti, Huisheng Bian, Virginie Buchard, Gabriele Curci, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Anton Laakso, Julie Letertre-Danczak, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, Cynthia Randles, Michael Schulz, Twan van Noije, Kai Zhang, Lucas Alados-Arboledas, Urs Baltensperger, Anne Jefferson, James Sherman, Junying Sun, Ernest Weingartner, and Paul Zieger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10231–10258, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10231-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10231-2020, 2020
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We investigate how well models represent the enhancement in scattering coefficients due to particle water uptake, and perform an evaluation of several implementation schemes used in ten Earth system models. Our results show the importance of the parameterization of hygroscopicity and model chemistry as drivers of some of the observed diversity amongst model estimates. The definition of dry conditions and the phenomena taking place in this relative humidity range also impact the model evaluation.
Matt Amos, Paul J. Young, J. Scott Hosking, Jean-François Lamarque, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, David A. Plummer, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9961–9977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, 2020
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We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models. To do so, we employ a method, more advanced and skilful than the current multi-model mean standard, which is applicable to other ensemble analyses. It calculates the performance and similarity of the models, which we then use to weight the model. Calculating model similarity allows us to account for models which are constructed from similar components.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
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The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Martin Cussac, Virginie Marécal, Valérie Thouret, Béatrice Josse, and Bastien Sauvage
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9393–9417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9393-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9393-2020, 2020
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Biomass burning emissions are a major source of carbon monoxide in the atmosphere. Here, the vertical transport that these emissions can undergo until the upper troposphere is investigated, as well as their contribution to carbon monoxide concentrations. It was found that boreal forest emissions were specific to the occurrence of pyroconvection directly above the fires, whereas biomass burning emissions from other regions of the globe relied more on the occurrence of deep convection.
Rein Haarsma, Mario Acosta, Rena Bakhshi, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Susanna Corti, Paolo Davini, Eleftheria Exarchou, Federico Fabiano, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes Franco, Javier García-Serrano, Jost von Hardenberg, Torben Koenigk, Xavier Levine, Virna Loana Meccia, Twan van Noije, Gijs van den Oord, Froila M. Palmeiro, Mario Rodrigo, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Etienne Tourigny, Shiyu Wang, Michiel van Weele, and Klaus Wyser
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3507–3527, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3507-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3507-2020, 2020
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HighResMIP is an international coordinated CMIP6 effort to investigate the improvement in climate modeling caused by an increase in horizontal resolution. This paper describes EC-Earth3P-(HR), which has been developed for HighResMIP. First analyses reveal that increasing resolution does improve certain aspects of the simulated climate but that many other biases still continue, possibly related to phenomena that are still not yet resolved and need to be parameterized.
Klaus Wyser, Twan van Noije, Shuting Yang, Jost von Hardenberg, Declan O'Donnell, and Ralf Döscher
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3465–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3465-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3465-2020, 2020
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The EC-Earth model used for CMIP6 is found to have a higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) than its predecessor used for CMIP5. In a series of sensitivity experiments, we investigate which model updates since CMIP5 have contributed to the increase in ECS. The main reason for the higher sensitivity in the EC-Earth model is the improved representation of the aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions.
Veronika Eyring, Lisa Bock, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Omar Bellprat, Björn Brötz, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nuno Carvalhais, Irene Cionni, Nicola Cortesi, Bas Crezee, Edouard L. Davin, Paolo Davini, Kevin Debeire, Lee de Mora, Clara Deser, David Docquier, Paul Earnshaw, Carsten Ehbrecht, Bettina K. Gier, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Paul Goodman, Stefan Hagemann, Steven Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Alasdair Hunter, Christopher Kadow, Stephan Kindermann, Sujan Koirala, Nikolay Koldunov, Quentin Lejeune, Valerio Lembo, Tomas Lovato, Valerio Lucarini, François Massonnet, Benjamin Müller, Amarjiit Pandde, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Adam Phillips, Valeriu Predoi, Joellen Russell, Alistair Sellar, Federico Serva, Tobias Stacke, Ranjini Swaminathan, Verónica Torralba, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, Katja Weigel, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3383–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, 2020
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility.
Moa K. Sporre, Sara M. Blichner, Roland Schrödner, Inger H. H. Karset, Terje K. Berntsen, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Declan O'Donnell, and Risto Makkonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8953–8973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8953-2020, 2020
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We investigate how emissions and parameters in current
SOA parameterisations in three ESMs affect both the resulting SOA in the models and the impact this has on climate through the direct and indirect aerosol effects. The SOA changes induce very different responses in the models, especially in terms of the indirect aerosol effect. This introduces uncertainties in ESM estimates of SOA climate impact through feedbacks in a warming climate and through anthropogenic land use change.
Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Christian W. Mohr, Kari Alterskjær, Yves Balkanski, Nicolas Bellouin, Mian Chin, James Haywood, Øivind Hodnebrog, Stefan Kinne, Guangxing Lin, Marianne T. Lund, Joyce E. Penner, Michael Schulz, Nick Schutgens, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, and Kai Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8855–8865, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8855-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8855-2020, 2020
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The radiative forcing of the direct aerosol effects can be decomposed into clear-sky and cloudy-sky portions. In this study we use observational methods and two sets of multi-model global aerosol simulations over the industrial era to show that the contribution from cloudy-sky regions is likely weak.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
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Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Sarah A. Strode, James S. Wang, Michael Manyin, Bryan Duncan, Ryan Hossaini, Christoph A. Keller, Sylvia E. Michel, and James W. C. White
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8405–8419, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8405-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8405-2020, 2020
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The 13C : 12C isotopic ratio in methane (CH4) provides information about CH4 sources, but loss of CH4 by reaction with OH and chlorine (Cl) also affects this ratio. Tropospheric Cl provides a small and uncertain sink for CH4 but has a large effect on its isotopic ratio. We use the GEOS model with several different Cl fields to test the sensitivity of methane's isotopic composition to tropospheric Cl. Cl affects the global mean, hemispheric gradient, and seasonal cycle of the isotopic ratio.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Yuqiang Zhang, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Camilla W. Stjern, Gregory Faluvegi, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8251–8266, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8251-2020, 2020
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By using climate simulations, we found that both CO2 and black carbon aerosols could reduce low-level cloud cover, which is mainly due to changes in relative humidity, cloud water, dynamics, and stability. Because the impact of cloud on solar radiation is in effect only during daytime, such cloud reduction could enhance solar heating, thereby raising the daily maximum temperature by 10–50 %, varying by region, which has great implications for extreme climate events and socioeconomic activity.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
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Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Javier Alejandro Barrera, Rafael Pedro Fernandez, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, Carlos Alberto Cuevas, Jean-Francois Lamarque, and Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8083–8102, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8083-2020, 2020
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The inclusion of biogenic very short-lived bromocarbons (VSLBr) in the CAM-chem model improves the model–satellite agreement of the total ozone columns at mid-latitudes and drives a persistent hemispheric asymmetry in lowermost stratospheric ozone loss. The seasonal VSLBr impact on mid-latitude lowermost stratospheric ozone is influenced by the heterogeneous reactivation processes of inorganic chlorine on ice crystals, with a clear increase in ozone destruction during spring and winter.
Pierre Sepulchre, Arnaud Caubel, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Pascale Braconnot, Patrick Brockmann, Anne Cozic, Yannick Donnadieu, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Victor Estella-Perez, Christian Ethé, Frédéric Fluteau, Marie-Alice Foujols, Guillaume Gastineau, Josefine Ghattas, Didier Hauglustaine, Frédéric Hourdin, Masa Kageyama, Myriam Khodri, Olivier Marti, Yann Meurdesoif, Juliette Mignot, Anta-Clarisse Sarr, Jérôme Servonnat, Didier Swingedouw, Sophie Szopa, and Delphine Tardif
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3011–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, 2020
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Our paper describes IPSL-CM5A2, an Earth system model that can be integrated for long (several thousands of years) climate simulations. We describe the technical aspects, assess the model computing performance and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the model, by comparing pre-industrial and historical runs to the previous-generation model simulations and to observations. We also present a Cretaceous simulation as a case study to show how the model simulates deep-time paleoclimates.
Duane Waliser, Peter J. Gleckler, Robert Ferraro, Karl E. Taylor, Sasha Ames, James Biard, Michael G. Bosilovich, Otis Brown, Helene Chepfer, Luca Cinquini, Paul J. Durack, Veronika Eyring, Pierre-Philippe Mathieu, Tsengdar Lee, Simon Pinnock, Gerald L. Potter, Michel Rixen, Roger Saunders, Jörg Schulz, Jean-Noël Thépaut, and Matthias Tuma
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2945–2958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2945-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2945-2020, 2020
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This paper provides an update to an international research activity whose objective is to facilitate access to satellite and other types of regional and global datasets for evaluating global models used to produce 21st century climate projections.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Vincenzo Rizi, Marco Iarlori, Irene Cionni, Ilaria Quaglia, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando Garcia, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-François Lamarque, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Tatsuya Nagashima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David Plummer, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, 2020
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In this work we analyse the trend in ozone profiles taken at L'Aquila (Italy, 42.4° N) for seventeen years, between 2000 and 2016 and compare them against already available measured ozone trends. We try to understand and explain the observed trends at various heights in light of the simulations from seventeen different model, highlighting the contribution of changes in circulation and chemical ozone loss during this time period.
Jiani Tan, Joshua S. Fu, Gregory R. Carmichael, Syuichi Itahashi, Zhining Tao, Kan Huang, Xinyi Dong, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Xuemei Wang, Yiming Liu, Hyo-Jung Lee, Chuan-Yao Lin, Baozhu Ge, Mizuo Kajino, Jia Zhu, Meigen Zhang, Hong Liao, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7393–7410, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7393-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7393-2020, 2020
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This study evaluated the performance of 12 chemical transport models from MICS-Asia III for predicting the particulate matter (PM) over East Asia. Four model processes were investigated as the possible reasons for model bias with measurements and the factors causing inconsistent predictions of PM from different models: (1) model inputs, (2) gas–particle conversion, (3) dust emission modules and (4) removal mechanisms (wet and dry depositions). The influence of each process was discussed.
Marta Abalos, Clara Orbe, Douglas E. Kinnison, David Plummer, Luke D. Oman, Patrick Jöckel, Olaf Morgenstern, Rolando R. Garcia, Guang Zeng, Kane A. Stone, and Martin Dameris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6883–6901, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, 2020
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A set of state-of-the art chemistry–climate models is used to examine future changes in downward transport from the stratosphere, a key contributor to tropospheric ozone. The acceleration of the stratospheric circulation results in increased stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. In the subtropics, downward advection into the troposphere is enhanced due to climate change. At higher latitudes, the ozone reservoir above the tropopause is enlarged due to the stronger circulation and ozone recovery.
Olivier Coopmann, Vincent Guidard, Nadia Fourrié, Béatrice Josse, and Virginie Marécal
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 2659–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2659-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2659-2020, 2020
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The objective of this paper is to make a new selection of IASI channels by taking into account inter-channel observation-error correlations. Our selection further reduces the analysis error by 3 % in temperature, 1.8 % in humidity and 0.9 % in ozone compared to Collard’s selection, when using the same number of channels. A selection of 400 IASI channels is proposed at the end of the paper which is able to further reduce analysis errors.
Oliver Wild, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Fiona O'Connor, Jean-François Lamarque, Edmund M. Ryan, and Lindsay Lee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4047–4058, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4047-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4047-2020, 2020
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Global models of tropospheric chemistry and transport show a persistent diversity in results that has not been fully explained. We demonstrate the first use of global sensitivity analysis consistently across three independent models to explore these differences and reveal both clear similarities and surprising differences which have important implications for our assessment of future atmospheric composition change.
Clara Orbe, David A. Plummer, Darryn W. Waugh, Huang Yang, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas E. Kinnison, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Makoto Deushi, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Wuhu Feng, and Slimane Bekki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3809–3840, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3809-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3809-2020, 2020
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Atmospheric composition is strongly influenced by global-scale winds that are not always properly simulated in computer models. A common approach to correct for this bias is to relax or
nudgeto the observed winds. Here we systematically evaluate how well this technique performs across a large suite of chemistry–climate models in terms of its ability to reproduce key aspects of both the tropospheric and stratospheric circulations.
Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Ulrike Lohmann, Christof Gerhard Beer, Valerian Hahn, Bernd Heinold, Romy Heller, Martina Krämer, Michael Ponater, Christian Rolf, Ina Tegen, and Christiane Voigt
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1635–1661, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1635-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1635-2020, 2020
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A new cloud microphysical scheme is implemented in the global EMAC-MADE3 aerosol model and evaluated. The new scheme features a detailed parameterization for aerosol-driven ice formation in cirrus clouds, accounting for the competition between homogeneous and heterogeneous ice formation processes. The comparison against satellite data and in situ measurements shows that the model performance is in line with similar global coupled models featuring ice cloud parameterizations.
Alexander T. Archibald, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Fraser Dennison, Sandip S. Dhomse, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Alan J. Hewitt, Richard S. Hill, Colin E. Johnson, James Keeble, Marcus O. Köhler, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Carlos Ordóñez, Richard J. Pope, Steven T. Rumbold, Maria R. Russo, Nicholas H. Savage, Alistair Sellar, Marc Stringer, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1223–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, 2020
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Here we present a description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). UKCA StratTrop represents a substantial step forward compared to previous versions of UKCA. We show here that it is fully suited to the challenges of representing interactions in a coupled Earth system model and identify key areas and components for future development that will make it even better in the future.
Mattia Righi, Bouwe Andela, Veronika Eyring, Axel Lauer, Valeriu Predoi, Manuel Schlund, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Lisa Bock, Björn Brötz, Lee de Mora, Faruk Diblen, Laura Dreyer, Niels Drost, Paul Earnshaw, Birgit Hassler, Nikolay Koldunov, Bill Little, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1179–1199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1179-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1179-2020, 2020
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This paper describes the second major release of ESMValTool, a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models. This new version features a brand new design, with an improved interface and a revised preprocessor. It takes advantage of state-of-the-art computational libraries and methods to deploy efficient and user-friendly data processing, improving the performance over its predecessor by more than a factor of 30.
Daniel M. Westervelt, Nora R. Mascioli, Arlene M. Fiore, Andrew J. Conley, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, Greg Faluvegi, Michael Previdi, Gustavo Correa, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3009–3027, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3009-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3009-2020, 2020
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We use three Earth system models to estimate the impact of regional air pollutant emissions reductions on global and regional surface temperature. We find that removing human-caused air pollutant emissions from certain world regions (such as the USA) results in warming of up to 0.15 °C. We use our model output to calculate simple climate metrics that will allow for regional-scale climate impact estimates without the use of computationally demanding computer models.
Michael Biggart, Jenny Stocker, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Michael Hollaway, David Carruthers, Jie Li, Qiang Zhang, Ruili Wu, Simone Kotthaus, Sue Grimmond, Freya A. Squires, James Lee, and Zongbo Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2755–2780, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2755-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2755-2020, 2020
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Ambient air pollution is a major cause of premature death in China. We examine the street-scale variation of pollutant levels in Beijing using air pollution dispersion and chemistry model ADMS-Urban. Campaign measurements are compared with simulated pollutant levels, providing a valuable means of evaluating the impact of key processes on urban air quality. Air quality modelling at such fine scales is essential for human exposure studies and for informing choices on future emission controls.
Syuichi Itahashi, Baozhu Ge, Keiichi Sato, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Jie Li, Mizuo Kajino, Hong Liao, Meigen Zhang, Zhe Wang, Meng Li, Junichi Kurokawa, Gregory R. Carmichael, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2667–2693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2667-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2667-2020, 2020
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This study gives an overview of acid deposition from the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) phase III. Wet deposition simulated by a total of nine models is evaluated with observation data from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). The total deposition maps comparing to emissions over Asia are presented. To seek a way to improve the model performance, ensemble approaches and the precipitation-adjusted method are discussed.
Karl M. Seltzer, Drew T. Shindell, Prasad Kasibhatla, and Christopher S. Malley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1757–1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1757-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1757-2020, 2020
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Long-term exposure to ambient ozone is associated with a variety of impacts, including adverse human-health effects and reduced commercial crop yields. We apply machine learning to empirically model long-term O3 exposure over the continental United States from 2000 to 2015 and generate a measurement-based assessment of impacts on human health and crop yields. Notably, our results illustrate how different conclusions regarding historical impacts can be drawn through the use of varying metrics.
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
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Differences in methane lifetime among global models are large and poorly understood. We use a neural network method and simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative to quantify the factors influencing methane lifetime spread among models and variations over time. UV photolysis, tropospheric ozone, and nitrogen oxides drive large model differences, while the same factors plus specific humidity contribute to a decreasing trend in methane lifetime between 1980 and 2015.
Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Kevin W. Bowman, Keiya Yumimoto, Thomas Walker, and Kengo Sudo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 931–967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-931-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-931-2020, 2020
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We introduce a multi-model, multi-constituent chemical data assimilation framework that directly accounts for model error in transport and chemistry by integrating a portfolio of forward chemical transport models. The assimilation was able to reduce ensemble forward model spread and bias relative to independent measurements. Diagnostic information readily available from the framework has the potential to improve chemical predictions through relationships such as emergent constraints.
Jian He, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Ed Dlugokencky, and Kirk Thoning
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 805–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-805-2020, 2020
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In this work, methane representation in AM4.1 is improved by optimizing CH4 emissions to match surface observations. We find increases in CH4 sources balanced by increases in sinks lead to CH4 stabilization during 1999–2006, and anthropogenic sources (e.g., agriculture, energy, and waste) are more likely major contributors to the renewed growth after 2006. Increases in CH4 emissions and decreases in OH levels during 2008–2015 prolong CH4 lifetime and amplify methane response to emission changes.
Le Kuai, Kevin W. Bowman, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Makoto Deushi, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Fabien Paulot, Sarah Strode, Andrew Conley, Jean-François Lamarque, Patrick Jöckel, David A. Plummer, Luke D. Oman, Helen Worden, Susan Kulawik, David Paynter, Andrea Stenke, and Markus Kunze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 281–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-281-2020, 2020
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The tropospheric ozone increase from pre-industrial to the present day leads to a radiative forcing. The top-of-atmosphere outgoing fluxes at the ozone band are controlled by ozone, water vapor, and temperature. We demonstrate a method to attribute the models’ flux biases to these key players using satellite-constrained instantaneous radiative kernels. The largest spread between models is found in the tropics, mainly driven by ozone and then water vapor.
Lei Kong, Xiao Tang, Jiang Zhu, Zifa Wang, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Syuichi Itahashi, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Hyo-Jung Lee, Cheol-Hee Kim, Chuan-Yao Lin, Lei Chen, Meigen Zhang, Zhining Tao, Jie Li, Mizuo Kajino, Hong Liao, Zhe Wang, Kengo Sudo, Yuesi Wang, Yuepeng Pan, Guiqian Tang, Meng Li, Qizhong Wu, Baozhu Ge, and Gregory R. Carmichael
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 181–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-181-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-181-2020, 2020
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Evaluation and uncertainty investigation of NO2, CO and NH3 modeling over China were conducted in this study using 14 chemical transport model results from MICS-Asia III. All models largely underestimated CO concentrations and showed very poor performance in reproducing the observed monthly variations of NH3 concentrations. Potential factors related to such deficiencies are investigated and discussed in this paper.
Bing Pu, Paul Ginoux, Huan Guo, N. Christina Hsu, John Kimball, Beatrice Marticorena, Sergey Malyshev, Vaishali Naik, Norman T. O'Neill, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Juliette Paireau, Joseph M. Prospero, Elena Shevliakova, and Ming Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 55–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-55-2020, 2020
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Dust emission initiates when surface wind velocities exceed a threshold depending on soil and surface characteristics and varying spatially and temporally. Climate models widely use wind erosion thresholds. The climatological monthly global distribution of the wind erosion threshold, Vthreshold, is retrieved using satellite and reanalysis products and improves the simulation of dust frequency, magnitude, and the seasonal cycle in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land–atmosphere model.
Elizabeth Asher, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, Britton B. Stephens, Doug Kinnison, Eric J. Morgan, Ralph F. Keeling, Elliot L. Atlas, Sue M. Schauffler, Simone Tilmes, Eric A. Kort, Martin S. Hoecker-Martínez, Matt C. Long, Jean-François Lamarque, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Kathryn McKain, Colm Sweeney, Alan J. Hills, and Eric C. Apel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14071–14090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14071-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14071-2019, 2019
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Halogenated organic trace gases, which are a source of reactive halogens to the atmosphere, exert a disproportionately large influence on atmospheric chemistry and climate. This paper reports novel aircraft observations of halogenated compounds over the Southern Ocean in summer and evaluates hypothesized regional sources and emissions of these trace gases through their relationships to additional aircraft observations.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Sophie Szopa, Ann R. Stavert, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Virginie Marécal, Fiona M. O'Connor, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13701–13723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, 2019
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The role of hydroxyl radical changes in methane trends is debated, hindering our understanding of the methane cycle. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical may influence methane abundance in the atmosphere based on the inter-model comparison of hydroxyl radical fields and model simulations of CH4 abundance with different hydroxyl radical scenarios during 2000–2016. We show that hydroxyl radical changes could contribute up to 54 % of model-simulated methane biases.
Jie Li, Tatsuya Nagashima, Lei Kong, Baozhu Ge, Kazuyo Yamaji, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Qi Fan, Syuichi Itahashi, Hyo-Jung Lee, Cheol-Hee Kim, Chuan-Yao Lin, Meigen Zhang, Zhining Tao, Mizuo Kajino, Hong Liao, Meng Li, Jung-Hun Woo, Jun-ichi Kurokawa, Zhe Wang, Qizhong Wu, Hajime Akimoto, Gregory R. Carmichael, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12993–13015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12993-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12993-2019, 2019
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This study evaluated and intercompared 14 CTMs with ozone observations in East Asia, within the framework of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for ASIA Phase III (MICS-Asia III). Potential causes of the discrepancies between model results and observation were investigated by assessing the planetary boundary layer heights, emission fluxes, dry deposition, chemistry and vertical transport among models. Finally, a multi-model estimate of pollution distributions was provided.
Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Kari Alterskjær, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Piers M. Forster, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas B. Richardson, Dilshad Shawki, Drew Shindell, Keith P. Shine, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12887–12899, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, 2019
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Different greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2) and aerosols (e.g. black carbon) impact the Earth’s water cycle differently. Here we investigate how various gases and particles impact atmospheric water vapour and its lifetime, i.e., the average number of days that water vapour stays in the atmosphere after evaporation and before precipitation. We find that this lifetime could increase substantially by the end of this century, indicating that important changes in precipitation patterns are excepted.
Lei Chen, Yi Gao, Meigen Zhang, Joshua S. Fu, Jia Zhu, Hong Liao, Jialin Li, Kan Huang, Baozhu Ge, Xuemei Wang, Yun Fat Lam, Chuan-Yao Lin, Syuichi Itahashi, Tatsuya Nagashima, Mizuo Kajino, Kazuyo Yamaji, Zifa Wang, and Jun-ichi Kurokawa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11911–11937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11911-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11911-2019, 2019
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Simulated aerosol concentrations from 14 CTMs within the framework of MICS-Asia III are detailedly evaluated with an extensive set of measurements in East Asia. Similarities and differences among model performances are also analyzed. Although more considerable capacities for reproducing the aerosol concentrations and their variations are shown in current CTMs than those in MICS-Asia II, more efforts are needed to reduce diversities of simulated aerosol concentrations among air quality models.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Hella Garny, Douglas Kinnison, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Makoto Deushi, Rolando R. Garcia, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11559–11586, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, 2019
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We perform the first multi-model comparison of the impact of nudged meteorology on the stratospheric residual circulation (RC) in chemistry–climate models. Nudging meteorology does not constrain the mean strength of RC compared to free-running simulations, and despite the lack of agreement in the mean circulation, nudging tightly constrains the inter-annual variability in the tropical upward mass flux in the lower stratosphere. In summary, nudging strongly affects the representation of RC.
Kévin Lamy, Thierry Portafaix, Béatrice Josse, Colette Brogniez, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Hassan Bencherif, Laura Revell, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Ben Liley, Virginie Marecal, Olaf Morgenstern, Andrea Stenke, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Neil Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Glauco Di Genova, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rong-Ming Hu, Douglas Kinnison, Michael Kotkamp, Richard McKenzie, Martine Michou, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10087–10110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, 2019
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In this study, we simulate the ultraviolet radiation evolution during the 21st century on Earth's surface using the output from several numerical models which participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. We present four possible futures which depend on greenhouse gases emissions. The role of ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases and aerosols are investigated. Our results emphasize the important role of aerosols for future ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
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Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Hiroaki Tatebe, Tomoo Ogura, Tomoko Nitta, Yoshiki Komuro, Koji Ogochi, Toshihiko Takemura, Kengo Sudo, Miho Sekiguchi, Manabu Abe, Fuyuki Saito, Minoru Chikira, Shingo Watanabe, Masato Mori, Nagio Hirota, Yoshio Kawatani, Takashi Mochizuki, Kei Yoshimura, Kumiko Takata, Ryouta O'ishi, Dai Yamazaki, Tatsuo Suzuki, Masao Kurogi, Takahito Kataoka, Masahiro Watanabe, and Masahide Kimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2727–2765, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019, 2019
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For a deeper understanding of a wide range of climate science issues, the latest version of the Japanese climate model, called MIROC6, was developed. The climate model represents observed mean climate and climate variations well, for example tropical precipitation, the midlatitude westerlies, and the East Asian monsoon, which influence human activity all over the world. The improved climate simulations could add reliability to climate predictions under global warming.
George S. Fanourgakis, Maria Kanakidou, Athanasios Nenes, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Ken S. Carslaw, Alf Grini, Douglas S. Hamilton, Jill S. Johnson, Vlassis A. Karydis, Alf Kirkevåg, John K. Kodros, Ulrike Lohmann, Gan Luo, Risto Makkonen, Hitoshi Matsui, David Neubauer, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Julia Schmale, Philip Stier, Kostas Tsigaridis, Twan van Noije, Hailong Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Yang Yang, Masaru Yoshioka, Nikos Daskalakis, Stefano Decesari, Martin Gysel-Beer, Nikos Kalivitis, Xiaohong Liu, Natalie M. Mahowald, Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Roland Schrödner, Maria Sfakianaki, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Mingxuan Wu, and Fangqun Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8591–8617, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8591-2019, 2019
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Effects of aerosols on clouds are important for climate studies but are among the largest uncertainties in climate projections. This study evaluates the skill of global models to simulate aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCs). Model results show reduced spread in CDNC compared to CCN due to the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol number concentration (air pollution) and updraft velocity (atmospheric dynamics).
Sophie Szopa, Rémi Thiéblemont, Slimane Bekki, Svetlana Botsyun, and Pierre Sepulchre
Clim. Past, 15, 1187–1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1187-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1187-2019, 2019
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The stratospheric ozone layer plays a key role in atmospheric thermal structure and circulation. Here, with a chemistry–climate model, we evaluate the potential role of stratospheric ozone chemistry in the case of Eocene hot conditions. Our results suggest that using stratospheric ozone calculated by the modeled Eocene conditions instead of the commonly specified preindustrial ozone distribution could change the simulated global surface air temperature by as much as 14 %.
Jamie M. Kelly, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, Graham W. Mann, Hugh Coe, and Dantong Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2539–2569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2539-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2539-2019, 2019
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This study develops the representation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) within a global chemistry–climate model (UKCA). Both dry and wet deposition within the UKCA model are extended to consider precursors of SOA. The oxidation mechanism describing SOA formation is also extended by adding a reaction intermediate, with SOA yields that are dependent on oxidant concentrations.
Keiichiro Hara, Kengo Sudo, Takato Ohnishi, Kazuo Osada, Masanori Yabuki, Masataka Shiobara, and Takashi Yamanouchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7817–7837, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7817-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7817-2019, 2019
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We measured equivalent black carbon (EBC) concentrations at Syowa Station, Antarctica, from February 2005. EBC might be transported directly to Syowa Station from mid-latitudes mainly via the boundary layer and the lower free troposphere. Some BC was transported to Antarctic regions via the upper free troposphere. Biomass burning in South America and southern Africa is the most dominant source. Fossil fuel combustion in South America and southern Africa also have important contributions.
Raia Silvia Massad, Juliette Lathière, Susanna Strada, Mathieu Perrin, Erwan Personne, Marc Stéfanon, Patrick Stella, Sophie Szopa, and Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré
Biogeosciences, 16, 2369–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2369-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2369-2019, 2019
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Human activities strongly interfere in the land–atmosphere interactions through changes in land use and land cover changes and land management. The objectives of this review are to synthesize the existing experimental and modelling works that investigate physical, chemical, and biogeochemical interactions between land surface and the atmosphere. Greater consideration of atmospheric chemistry, through land–atmosphere interactions, as a decision parameter for land management is essential.
Petr Šácha, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Petr Pišoft, Simone Dietmüller, Laura de la Torre, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Neal Butchart, and Juan A. Añel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7627–7647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7627-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7627-2019, 2019
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Climate models robustly project a Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) acceleration in the course of climate change. Analyzing mean age of stratospheric air (AoA) from a subset of climate projection simulations, we find a remarkable agreement in simulating the largest AoA trends in the extratropical stratosphere. This is shown to be related with the upward shift of the circulation, resulting in a so-called stratospheric shrinkage, which could be one of the so-far-omitted BDC acceleration drivers.
Zongbo Shi, Tuan Vu, Simone Kotthaus, Roy M. Harrison, Sue Grimmond, Siyao Yue, Tong Zhu, James Lee, Yiqun Han, Matthias Demuzere, Rachel E. Dunmore, Lujie Ren, Di Liu, Yuanlin Wang, Oliver Wild, James Allan, W. Joe Acton, Janet Barlow, Benjamin Barratt, David Beddows, William J. Bloss, Giulia Calzolai, David Carruthers, David C. Carslaw, Queenie Chan, Lia Chatzidiakou, Yang Chen, Leigh Crilley, Hugh Coe, Tie Dai, Ruth Doherty, Fengkui Duan, Pingqing Fu, Baozhu Ge, Maofa Ge, Daobo Guan, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, Kebin He, Mathew Heal, Dwayne Heard, C. Nicholas Hewitt, Michael Hollaway, Min Hu, Dongsheng Ji, Xujiang Jiang, Rod Jones, Markus Kalberer, Frank J. Kelly, Louisa Kramer, Ben Langford, Chun Lin, Alastair C. Lewis, Jie Li, Weijun Li, Huan Liu, Junfeng Liu, Miranda Loh, Keding Lu, Franco Lucarelli, Graham Mann, Gordon McFiggans, Mark R. Miller, Graham Mills, Paul Monk, Eiko Nemitz, Fionna O'Connor, Bin Ouyang, Paul I. Palmer, Carl Percival, Olalekan Popoola, Claire Reeves, Andrew R. Rickard, Longyi Shao, Guangyu Shi, Dominick Spracklen, David Stevenson, Yele Sun, Zhiwei Sun, Shu Tao, Shengrui Tong, Qingqing Wang, Wenhua Wang, Xinming Wang, Xuejun Wang, Zifang Wang, Lianfang Wei, Lisa Whalley, Xuefang Wu, Zhijun Wu, Pinhua Xie, Fumo Yang, Qiang Zhang, Yanli Zhang, Yuanhang Zhang, and Mei Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7519–7546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, 2019
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APHH-Beijing is a collaborative international research programme to study the sources, processes and health effects of air pollution in Beijing. This introduction to the special issue provides an overview of (i) the APHH-Beijing programme, (ii) the measurement and modelling activities performed as part of it and (iii) the air quality and meteorological conditions during joint intensive field campaigns as a core activity within APHH-Beijing.
Yugo Kanaya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Fumikazu Taketani, Takuma Miyakawa, Hisahiro Takashima, Yuichi Komazaki, Xiaole Pan, Saki Kato, Kengo Sudo, Takashi Sekiya, Jun Inoue, Kazutoshi Sato, and Kazuhiro Oshima
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7233–7254, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7233-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7233-2019, 2019
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Ozone and carbon monoxide levels were uniquely observed (for > 10 000 h) over oceans from 67° S to 75° N. Tropospheric chemistry reanalysis v2 reproduced the observed evolution of pollution plumes from continents but underpredicted and overpredicted ozone levels in the Arctic and in the western Pacific equatorial region, respectively. Processes to explain the gaps are proposed, including halogen-mediated destruction in the low latitudes. Our open data set will complement the TOAR data collection.
Stephanie Fiedler, Stefan Kinne, Wan Ting Katty Huang, Petri Räisänen, Declan O'Donnell, Nicolas Bellouin, Philip Stier, Joonas Merikanto, Twan van Noije, Risto Makkonen, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6821–6841, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6821-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6821-2019, 2019
Zainab Q. Hakim, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Gufran Beig, Gerd A. Folberth, Kengo Sudo, Nathan Luke Abraham, Sachin Ghude, Daven K. Henze, and Alexander T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6437–6458, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6437-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6437-2019, 2019
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Surface ozone is an important air pollutant and recent work has calculated that large numbers of people die prematurely because of exposure to high levels of surface ozone in India. However, these calculations require model simulations of ozone as key inputs.
Here we perform the most thorough evaluation of global model surface ozone over India to date. These analyses of model simulations and observations highlight some successes and shortcomings and the need for further process-based studies.
Vincent Huijnen, Andrea Pozzer, Joaquim Arteta, Guy Brasseur, Idir Bouarar, Simon Chabrillat, Yves Christophe, Thierno Doumbia, Johannes Flemming, Jonathan Guth, Béatrice Josse, Vlassis A. Karydis, Virginie Marécal, and Sophie Pelletier
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1725–1752, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1725-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1725-2019, 2019
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We report on an evaluation of tropospheric ozone and its precursor gases in three atmospheric chemistry versions as implemented in ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), referred to as IFS(CB05BASCOE), IFS(MOZART) and IFS(MOCAGE). This configuration of having various chemistry versions within IFS provides a quantification of uncertainties in CAMS trace gas products that are induced by chemistry modelling.
Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Susan E. Strahan, Kane A. Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5511–5528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019, 2019
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We evaluate the performance of a suite of models in simulating the large-scale transport from the northern midlatitudes to the Arctic using a CO-like idealized tracer. We find a large multi-model spread of the Arctic concentration of this CO-like tracer that is well correlated with the differences in the location of the midlatitude jet as well as the northern Hadley Cell edge. Our results suggest the Hadley Cell is key and zonal-mean transport by surface meridional flow needs better constraint.
Ryan S. Williams, Michaela I. Hegglin, Brian J. Kerridge, Patrick Jöckel, Barry G. Latter, and David A. Plummer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3589–3620, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3589-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3589-2019, 2019
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Tropospheric ozone has important implications for air quality and climate change but is poorly understood at a regional and seasonal level. Analysis of model simulations indicates that downward transport of ozone from the stratosphere has a larger influence than previously thought (as much as ~50 % even near the surface). Recent estimated changes in tropospheric ozone (1980–89 to 2001–10) are generally positive, with substantial attribution from the stratosphere identified over some regions.
Jerry R. Ziemke, Luke D. Oman, Sarah A. Strode, Anne R. Douglass, Mark A. Olsen, Richard D. McPeters, Pawan K. Bhartia, Lucien Froidevaux, Gordon J. Labow, Jacquie C. Witte, Anne M. Thompson, David P. Haffner, Natalya A. Kramarova, Stacey M. Frith, Liang-Kang Huang, Glen R. Jaross, Colin J. Seftor, Mathew T. Deland, and Steven L. Taylor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3257–3269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3257-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3257-2019, 2019
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Both a 38-year merged satellite record of tropospheric ozone from TOMS/OMI/MLS/OMPS and a MERRA-2 GMI model simulation show large increases of 6–7 Dobson units from the Near East to India–East Asia and eastward over the Pacific. These increases in tropospheric ozone are attributed to increases in pollution over the region over the last several decades. Secondary 38-year increases of 4–5 Dobson units with both GMI model and satellite measurements occur over central African–tropical Atlantic.
Kai-Lan Chang, Owen R. Cooper, J. Jason West, Marc L. Serre, Martin G. Schultz, Meiyun Lin, Virginie Marécal, Béatrice Josse, Makoto Deushi, Kengo Sudo, Junhua Liu, and Christoph A. Keller
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 955–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-955-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-955-2019, 2019
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We developed a new method for combining surface ozone observations from thousands of monitoring sites worldwide with the output from multiple atmospheric chemistry models. The result is a global surface ozone distribution with greater accuracy than any single model can achieve. We focused on an ozone metric relevant to human mortality caused by long-term ozone exposure. Our method can be applied to studies that quantify the impacts of ozone on human health and mortality.
Maxence Descheemaecker, Matthieu Plu, Virginie Marécal, Marine Claeyman, Francis Olivier, Youva Aoun, Philippe Blanc, Lucien Wald, Jonathan Guth, Bojan Sič, Jérôme Vidot, Andrea Piacentini, and Béatrice Josse
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 1251–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1251-2019, 2019
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The future Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) on board MeteoSat Third Generation is expected to improve the detection and the quantification of aerosols. The study assesses the potential of FCI/VIS04 channel for monitoring air pollution in Europe. An observing system simulation experiment in MOCAGE is developed, and they show a large positive impact of the assimilation over a 4-month period and particularly during a severe pollution episode. The added value of geostationary data is also assessed.
Ludivine Conte, Sophie Szopa, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 16, 881–902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-881-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-881-2019, 2019
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The ocean is a source of atmospheric carbon monoxide, a key component for the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. We use a global ocean biogeochemistry model to dynamically assess the oceanic CO budget and its emission to the atmosphere at the global scale. The total emissions of CO to the atmosphere are 4.0 Tg C yr−1. The oceanic CO emission maps produced are relevant for use by atmospheric chemical models, especially to study the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere above the remote ocean.
J. Christopher Kaiser, Johannes Hendricks, Mattia Righi, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Konrad Kandler, Bernadett Weinzierl, Daniel Sauer, Katharina Heimerl, Joshua P. Schwarz, Anne E. Perring, and Thomas Popp
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 541–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-541-2019, 2019
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The implementation of the aerosol microphysics submodel MADE3 into the global atmospheric chemistry model EMAC is described and evaluated against an extensive pool of observational data, focusing on aerosol mass and number concentrations, size distributions, composition, and optical properties. EMAC (MADE3) is able to reproduce main aerosol properties reasonably well, in line with the performance of other global aerosol models.
Florent F. Malavelle, Jim M. Haywood, Lina M. Mercado, Gerd A. Folberth, Nicolas Bellouin, Stephen Sitch, and Paulo Artaxo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1301–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1301-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1301-2019, 2019
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Diffuse light can increase the efficiency of vegetation photosynthesis. Diffuse light results from scattering by either clouds or aerosols in the atmosphere. During the dry season biomass burning (BB) on the edges of the Amazon rainforest contributes significantly to the aerosol burden over the entire region. We show that despite a modest effect of change in light conditions, the overall impact of BB aerosols on the vegetation is still important when indirect climate feedbacks are considered.
Roland Eichinger, Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Petr Šácha, Thomas Birner, Harald Bönisch, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Eugene Rozanov, Laura Revell, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 921–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, 2019
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To shed more light upon the changes in stratospheric circulation in the 21st century, climate projection simulations of 10 state-of-the-art global climate models, spanning from 1960 to 2100, are analyzed. The study shows that in addition to changes in transport, mixing also plays an important role in stratospheric circulation and that the properties of mixing vary over time. Furthermore, the influence of mixing is quantified and a dynamical framework is provided to understand the changes.
Junxi Zhang, Yang Gao, L. Ruby Leung, Kun Luo, Huan Liu, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jianren Fan, Xiaohong Yao, Huiwang Gao, and Tatsuya Nagashima
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 887–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-887-2019, 2019
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ACCMIP simulations were used to study NOy deposition over East Asia in the future. Both dry and wet NOy deposition show significant decreases in the 2100s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 due to large anthropogenic emission reduction. The changes in climate only significantly affect the wet deposition primarily linked to changes in precipitation. Over the coastal seas of China, weaker transport of NOy from land due to emission reduction infers a larger impact from shipping and lightning emissions.
Hajime Akimoto, Tatsuya Nagashima, Jie Li, Joshua S. Fu, Dongsheng Ji, Jiani Tan, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 603–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-603-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-603-2019, 2019
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The regional model intercomparison study called MICS-Asia III revealed that substantial discrepancy still exists for surface ozone simulation in East Asia, even though common emissions, meteorological field, and boundary conditions have been used among the models. Three factors have been identified as possible causes of such discrepancy, (1) chemistry sub-models, (2) heterogeneous reactions, and (3) vertical transport parameters, and each component has been discussed.
Xiaomeng Jin, Arlene M. Fiore, Gabriele Curci, Alexei Lyapustin, Kevin Civerolo, Michael Ku, Aaron van Donkelaar, and Randall V. Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 295–313, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-295-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-295-2019, 2019
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We use a forward geophysical approach to derive surface PM2.5 distribution from satellite AOD over the northeastern US by applying relationships between surface PM2.5 and column AOD from a regional air quality model (CMAQ). We use multi-platform surface, aircraft, and radiosonde measurements to quantify different sources of uncertainties. We highlight model representation of aerosol vertical distribution and speciation as major sources of uncertainties for satellite-derived PM2.5.
Fabien Paulot, Sergey Malyshev, Tran Nguyen, John D. Crounse, Elena Shevliakova, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17963–17978, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17963-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17963-2018, 2018
Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Amund Søvde Haslerud, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Jan Griesfeller, Stephen Matthew Platt, Rajesh Kumar, Cathrine Lund Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4909–4931, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4909-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4909-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric aerosols play a key role in the climate system, but their exact impact on the energy balance remains uncertain. Accurate representation of the geographical distribution and properties of aerosols in global models is key to reduce this uncertainty. Here we use a new emission inventory and a range of observations to carefully validate a state-of-the-art model and present an updated estimate of the net direct effect of anthropogenic aerosols since the preindustrial era.
Samuel R. Hall, Kirk Ullmann, Michael J. Prather, Clare M. Flynn, Lee T. Murray, Arlene M. Fiore, Gustavo Correa, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jonathan Guth, Béatrice Josse, Johannes Flemming, Vincent Huijnen, N. Luke Abraham, and Alex T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16809–16828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, 2018
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Photolysis (J rates) initiates and drives atmospheric chemistry, and Js are perturbed by factors of 2 by clouds. The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) Mission provides the first comprehensive observations on how clouds perturb Js through the remote Pacific and Atlantic basins. We compare these cloud-perturbation J statistics with those from nine global chemistry models. While basic patterns agree, there is a large spread across models, and all lack some basic features of the observations.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Fiona Tummon, Aryeh Feinberg, Eugene Rozanov, Thomas Peter, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Robyn Schofield, Kane Stone, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16155–16172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, 2018
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Global models such as those participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) consistently simulate biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We performed an advanced statistical analysis with one of the CCMI models to understand the cause of the bias. We found that emissions of ozone precursor gases are the dominant driver of the bias, implying either that the emissions are too large, or that the way in which the model handles emissions needs to be improved.
Ilissa B. Ocko, Vaishali Naik, and David Paynter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15555–15568, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15555-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15555-2018, 2018
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As communities worldwide analyse options to reduce methane emissions from energy use, agriculture, and waste management, there is an immediate need to build confidence in rapid assessment tools other than standard climate metrics – which misrepresent impacts over all timescales. In this paper, we show that a simplified climate model can easily and rapidly provide scientifically robust climate responses to changes in methane emissions, thereby improving mitigation analysis and decision-making.
Xinyi Dong, Joshua S. Fu, Qingzhao Zhu, Jian Sun, Jiani Tan, Terry Keating, Takashi Sekiya, Kengo Sudo, Louisa Emmons, Simone Tilmes, Jan Eiof Jonson, Michael Schulz, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Yanko Davila, Daven Henze, Toshihiko Takemura, Anna Maria Katarina Benedictow, and Kan Huang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15581–15600, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15581-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15581-2018, 2018
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We have applied the HTAP phase II multi-model data to investigate the long-range transport impacts on surface concentration and column density of PM from Europe and Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine to eastern Asia, with a special focus on the long-range transport contribution during haze episodes in China. We found that long-range transport plays a more important role in elevating the background concentration of surface PM during the haze days.
Arlene M. Fiore, Emily V. Fischer, George P. Milly, Shubha Pandey Deolal, Oliver Wild, Daniel A. Jaffe, Johannes Staehelin, Olivia E. Clifton, Dan Bergmann, William Collins, Frank Dentener, Ruth M. Doherty, Bryan N. Duncan, Bernd Fischer, Stefan Gilge, Peter G. Hess, Larry W. Horowitz, Alexandru Lupu, Ian A. MacKenzie, Rokjin Park, Ludwig Ries, Michael G. Sanderson, Martin G. Schultz, Drew T. Shindell, Martin Steinbacher, David S. Stevenson, Sophie Szopa, Christoph Zellweger, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15345–15361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, 2018
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We demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach for applying northern midlatitude mountaintop peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN) measurements and a multi-model ensemble during April to constrain the influence of continental-scale anthropogenic precursor emissions on PAN. Our findings imply a role for carefully coordinated multi-model ensembles in helping identify observations for discriminating among widely varying (and poorly constrained) model responses of atmospheric constituents to changes in emissions.
Benjamin Brown-Steiner, Noelle E. Selin, Ronald Prinn, Simone Tilmes, Louisa Emmons, Jean-François Lamarque, and Philip Cameron-Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4155–4174, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4155-2018, 2018
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We conduct three simulations of atmospheric chemistry using chemical mechanisms of different levels of complexity and compare their results to observations. We explore situations in which the simplified mechanisms match the output of the most complex mechanism, as well as when they diverge. We investigate how concurrent utilization of chemical mechanisms of different complexities can further our atmospheric-chemistry understanding at various scales and give some strategies for future research.
Jan Eiof Jonson, Michael Schulz, Louisa Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Daven Henze, Kengo Sudo, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Meiyun Lin, Anna Benedictow, Brigitte Koffi, Frank Dentener, Terry Keating, Rigel Kivi, and Yanko Davila
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13655–13672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13655-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13655-2018, 2018
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Focusing on Europe, this HTAP 2 study computes ozone in several global models when reducing anthropogenic emissions by 20 % in different world regions. The differences in model results are explored
by use of a novel stepwise approach combining a tracer, CO and ozone. For ozone the contributions from the rest of the world are larger than from Europe, with the largest contributions from North America and eastern Asia. Contributions do, however, depend on the choice of ozone metric.
Fabien Paulot, David Paynter, Paul Ginoux, Vaishali Naik, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13265–13281, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13265-2018, 2018
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Observations show that the sunlight reflected to space by particles has decreased over the US and Europe, increased over India, and not changed over China from 2001 to 2015. These changes are attributed to different types of particles, namely sulfate over the US and Europe, and black carbon, sulfate, and nitrate over China and India. Our results suggest that the recent shift in human emissions from the US and Europe to Asia has altered their impact on the Earth's outgoing energy.
Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew J. Conley, Arlene M. Fiore, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, Michael Previdi, Nora R. Mascioli, Greg Faluvegi, Gustavo Correa, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12461–12475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12461-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12461-2018, 2018
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Small particles in Earth's atmosphere (also referred to as atmospheric aerosols) emitted by human activities impact Earth's climate in complex ways and play an important role in Earth's water cycle. We use a climate modeling approach and find that aerosols from the United States and Europe can have substantial effects on rainfall in far-away regions such as Africa's Sahel or the Mediterranean. Air pollution controls in these regions may help reduce the likelihood and severity of Sahel drought.
Jean J. Guo, Arlene M. Fiore, Lee T. Murray, Daniel A. Jaffe, Jordan L. Schnell, Charles T. Moore, and George P. Milly
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12123–12140, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12123-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12123-2018, 2018
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We use the GEOS-Chem model to estimate the influence from anthropogenic and background sources to ozone over the USA. Novel findings include the point that year-to-year background variability on the 10 highest observed ozone days is driven mainly by natural sources and not international or intercontinental pollution transport. High positive model biases during summer are associated with regional ozone production. The EPA 3-year average metric falls short of its aim to remove natural variability.
Pakawat Phalitnonkiat, Peter G. M. Hess, Mircea D. Grigoriu, Gennady Samorodnitsky, Wenxiu Sun, Ellie Beaudry, Simone Tilmes, Makato Deushi, Beatrice Josse, David Plummer, and Kengo Sudo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11927–11948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11927-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11927-2018, 2018
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The co-occurrence of heat waves and pollution events and the resulting high mortality rates emphasize the importance of the co-occurrence of pollution and temperature extremes. We analyze ozone and temperature extremes and their joint occurrence over the United States during the summer months (JJA) in measurement data and in model simulations of the present and future climates.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Hauke Schmidt, Rémi Thiéblemont, Lon Hood, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, Daniel R. Marsh, Martine Michou, David Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Yousuke Yamashita, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11323–11343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, 2018
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The 11-year solar cycle is an important driver of climate variability. Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation affect atmospheric ozone, which in turn influences atmospheric temperatures. Constraining the impact of the solar cycle on ozone is therefore important for understanding climate variability. This study examines the representation of the solar influence on ozone in numerical models used to simulate past and future climate. We highlight important differences among model datasets.
Christina Hood, Ian MacKenzie, Jenny Stocker, Kate Johnson, David Carruthers, Massimo Vieno, and Ruth Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11221–11245, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11221-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11221-2018, 2018
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A coupled atmospheric dispersion modelling system has been developed, comprising a regional chemical transport model and a street-scale urban dispersion model. It was applied in London for 2012 and for all common regulated air quality pollutants, with evaluation against measurements. The modelling demonstrates the interaction between local and regional scales, which differs between pollutants. Real-world estimates of emissions have been used to adjust standard factors and improve model results.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Ulrike Langematz, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Steven C. Hardiman, Patrick Jöckel, Andrew Klekociuk, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018
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Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
Sarah A. Strode, Junhua Liu, Leslie Lait, Róisín Commane, Bruce Daube, Steven Wofsy, Austin Conaty, Paul Newman, and Michael Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10955–10971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10955-2018, 2018
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The GEOS-5 atmospheric model provided forecasts for the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom). GEOS-5 shows skill in simulating the carbon monoxide (CO) measured in ATom-1. African fires contribute to high CO over the tropical Atlantic, but non-fire sources are the main contributors elsewhere. ATom aims to provide a chemical climatology, so we consider whether ATom-1 occurred during a typical summer month. Satellite observations suggest ATom-1 occurred in a clean but not exceptional month.
Edmund Ryan, Oliver Wild, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Lindsay Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3131–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3131-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3131-2018, 2018
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Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) identifies which parameters of a model most affect its output. We performed GSA using statistical emulators as surrogates of two slow-running atmospheric chemistry transport models. Due to the high dimension of the model outputs, we considered two alternative methods: one that reduced the output dimension and one that did not require an emulator. The alternative methods accurately performed the GSA but were significantly faster than the emulator-only method.
Vivek K. Arora, Joe R. Melton, and David Plummer
Biogeosciences, 15, 4683–4709, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4683-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4683-2018, 2018
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Earth system models (ESMs) project future changes in climate in response to changes in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, before this can be achieved the natural fluxes of a given GHG must also be modelled. This paper evaluates the natural methane fluxes simulated by the CLASS-CTEM model (which is the land component of the Canadian ESM) against observations to show that the simulated methane emissions from wetlands and fires, and soil uptake of methane are realistic.
Ciao-Kai Liang, J. Jason West, Raquel A. Silva, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Yanko Davila, Frank J. Dentener, Louisa Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Gerd Folberth, Daven Henze, Ulas Im, Jan Eiof Jonson, Terry J. Keating, Tom Kucsera, Allen Lenzen, Meiyun Lin, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Xiaohua Pan, Rokjin J. Park, R. Bradley Pierce, Takashi Sekiya, Kengo Sudo, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10497–10520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10497-2018, 2018
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Emissions from one continent affect air quality and health elsewhere. Here we quantify the effects of intercontinental PM2.5 and ozone transport on human health using a new multi-model ensemble, evaluating the health effects of emissions from six world regions and three emission source sectors. Emissions from one region have significant health impacts outside of that source region; similarly, foreign emissions contribute significantly to air-pollution-related deaths in several world regions.
Jordan L. Schnell, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Fabien Paulot, Jingqiu Mao, Paul Ginoux, Ming Zhao, and Kirpa Ram
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10157–10175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10157-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10157-2018, 2018
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We evaluate the ability of a developmental version of the NOAA GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 4 to simulate observed wintertime pollution and its relationship to weather over Northern India, one of the most densely populated and polluted regions in world. We also compare two emission inventories and find that the newest version dramatically improves our simulation. Observed and modeled pollution is the highest within the Indo-Gangetic Plain, where it is closely related to near-surface weather.
Rebecca J. Oliver, Lina M. Mercado, Stephen Sitch, David Simpson, Belinda E. Medlyn, Yan-Shih Lin, and Gerd A. Folberth
Biogeosciences, 15, 4245–4269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4245-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4245-2018, 2018
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Potential gains in terrestrial carbon sequestration over Europe from elevated CO2 can be partially offset by concurrent rises in tropospheric O3. The land surface model JULES was run in a factorial suite of experiments showing that by 2050 simulated GPP was reduced by 4 to 9 % due to plant O3 damage. Large regional variations exist with larger impacts identified for temperate compared to boreal regions. Plant O3 damage was greatest over the twentieth century and declined into the future.
Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Frank J. Dentener, Yanko Davila, Louisa K. Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Gerd A. Folberth, Daven K. Henze, Jan E. Jonson, Terry J. Keating, Sudo Kengo, Meiyun Lin, Marianne Lund, Simone Tilmes, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8953–8978, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, 2018
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A simple parameterisation was developed in this study to provide a rapid assessment of the impacts and uncertainties associated with future emission control strategies by predicting changes to surface ozone air quality and near-term climate forcing of ozone. Future emissions scenarios based on currently implemented legislation are shown to worsen surface ozone air quality and enhance near-term climate warming, with changes in methane becoming increasingly important in the future.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Terje Berntsen, Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 879–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, 2018
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A key question in climate science is how the global mean surface temperature responds to changes in greenhouse gases. This dependency is quantified by the climate sensitivity, which is determined by the complex feedbacks in the climate system. In this study observations of past climate change are used to estimate this sensitivity. Our estimate is consistent with values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by complex climate models but sensitive to the use of uncertain input data.
Stefano Galmarini, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Efisio Solazzo, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Roberto Bellasio, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Joergen Brandt, Jesper H. Christensen, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Yanko Davila, Xinyi Dong, Johannes Flemming, Xavier Francis, Andrea Fraser, Joshua Fu, Daven K. Henze, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Jan Eiof Jonson, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Astrid Manders, Rohit Mathur, Laura Palacios-Peña, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marie Prank, Martin Schultz, Rajeet S. Sokhi, Kengo Sudo, Paolo Tuccella, Toshihiko Takemura, Takashi Sekiya, and Alper Unal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8727–8744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8727-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8727-2018, 2018
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An ensemble of model results relating to ozone concentrations in Europe in 2010 has been produced and studied. The novelty consists in the fact that the ensemble is made of results of models working at two different scales (regional and global), therefore contributing in detail two different parts of the atmospheric spectrum. The ensemble defined as a hybrid has been studied in detail and shown to bring additional value to the assessment of air quality.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Bjørn H. Samset, Oliviér Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Jana Sillmann, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Timothy Andrews, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Trond Iversen, Matthew Kasoar, Viatcheslav Kharin, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Richardson, Camilla W. Stjern, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8439–8452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, 2018
Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
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We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
Stefan Lossow, Dale F. Hurst, Karen H. Rosenlof, Gabriele P. Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Sabine Brinkop, Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, Doug E. Kinnison, Johannes Plieninger, David A. Plummer, Felix Ploeger, William G. Read, Ellis E. Remsberg, James M. Russell, and Mengchu Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8331–8351, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8331-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8331-2018, 2018
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Trend estimates of lower stratospheric H2O derived from the FPH observations at Boulder and a merged zonal mean satellite data set clearly differ for the time period from the late 1980s to 2010. We investigate if a sampling bias between Boulder and the zonal mean around the Boulder latitude can explain these trend discrepancies. Typically they are small and not sufficient to explain the trend discrepancies in the observational database.
Xiaokang Wu, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Clara Orbe, Simone Tilmes, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7439–7452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7439-2018, 2018
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The seasonal and interannual variability of transport times from northern mid-latitudes into the southern hemisphere is examined using simulations of
agetracers. The largest variability occurs near the surface close to the tropical convergence zones, but the peak is further south and there is a smaller tropical–extratropical contrast for tracers with more rapid loss. Hence the variability of trace gases in the southern extratropics will vary with their chemical lifetime.
Jamie M. Kelly, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Graham W. Mann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7393–7422, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7393-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7393-2018, 2018
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The global secondary organic aerosol (SOA) budget is highly uncertain with global models typically underpredicting observed SOA concentrations. Using a global chemistry-climate model, the impacts of biogenic, anthropogenic, and biomass burning VOC emissions on the global SOA budget and model agreement with observed SOA concentrations are quantified.
Clara Orbe, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, John F. Scinocca, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Patrick Jöckel, Luke D. Oman, Susan E. Strahan, Makoto Deushi, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Kohei Yoshida, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Andreas Stenke, Laura Revell, Timofei Sukhodolov, Eugene Rozanov, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7217–7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, 2018
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In this study we compare a few atmospheric transport properties among several numerical models that are used to study the influence of atmospheric chemistry on climate. We show that there are large differences among models in terms of the timescales that connect the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, where greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances are emitted, to the Southern Hemisphere. Our results may have important implications for how models represent atmospheric composition.
Felicia Kolonjari, David A. Plummer, Kaley A. Walker, Chris D. Boone, James W. Elkins, Michaela I. Hegglin, Gloria L. Manney, Fred L. Moore, Diane Pendlebury, Eric A. Ray, Karen H. Rosenlof, and Gabriele P. Stiller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6801–6828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6801-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6801-2018, 2018
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We used satellite observations and model simulations of CFC-11, CFC-12, and N2O to investigate stratospheric transport, which is important for predicting the recovery of the ozone layer and future climate. We found that sampling can impact results and that the model consistently overestimates concentrations of these gases in the lower stratosphere, consistent with a too rapid Brewer–Dobson circulation. An issue with mixing in the tropical lower stratosphere in June–July–August was also found.
Jiani Tan, Joshua S. Fu, Frank Dentener, Jian Sun, Louisa Emmons, Simone Tilmes, Kengo Sudo, Johannes Flemming, Jan Eiof Jonson, Sylvie Gravel, Huisheng Bian, Yanko Davila, Daven K. Henze, Marianne T. Lund, Tom Kucsera, Toshihiko Takemura, and Terry Keating
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6847–6866, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6847-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6847-2018, 2018
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We study the distributions of sulfur and nitrogen deposition, which are associated with current environmental issues such as formation of acid rain and ecosystem eutrophication and result in widespread problems such as loss of environmental diversity, harming the crop yield and even food insecurity. According to our study, both the amount and distribution of sulfate and nitrogen deposition have changed significantly in the last decade, particularly in East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia.
Simone Dietmüller, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Birner, Harald Boenisch, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Shibata Kiyotaka, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, 2018
Michael J. Prather, Clare M. Flynn, Xin Zhu, Stephen D. Steenrod, Sarah A. Strode, Arlene M. Fiore, Gustavo Correa, Lee T. Murray, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2653–2668, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2653-2018, 2018
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A new protocol for merging in situ atmospheric chemistry measurements with 3-D models is developed. This technique can identify the most reactive air parcels in terms of tropospheric production/loss of O3 & CH4. This approach highlights differences in 6 global chemistry models even with composition specified. Thus in situ measurements from, e.g., NASA's ATom mission can be used to develop a chemical climatology of, not only the key species, but also the rates of key reactions in each air parcel.
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, Douglas E. Kinnison, Alexandru Rap, Amanda C. Maycock, Oliver Wild, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6121–6139, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6121-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6121-2018, 2018
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This study explores future ozone radiative forcing (RF) and the relative contribution due to different drivers. Climate-induced ozone RF is largely the result of the interplay between lightning-produced ozone and enhanced ozone destruction in a warmer and wetter atmosphere. These results demonstrate the importance of stratospheric–tropospheric interactions and the stratosphere as a key region controlling a large fraction of the tropospheric ozone RF.
Sara Fenech, Ruth M. Doherty, Clare Heaviside, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Helen L. Macintyre, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5765–5784, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5765-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5765-2018, 2018
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The impact of model horizontal resolution on simulated surface ozone and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm concentrations, and the associated health impacts over Europe, using a coarse (~ 140 km) and a finer (~ 50 km) resolution is examined. Results highlight a strong seasonal variation in simulated O3 and PM2.5 differences between the two resolutions and demonstrate that health impact assessments are sensitive to a change in model resolution by up to ±5 % of the total mortality across Europe.
Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Hans Schlager, Robert Baumann, Duy Sinh Cai, Veronika Eyring, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Christiane Voigt, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5655–5675, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5655-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5655-2018, 2018
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This study places aircraft trace gas measurements from within the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone into the context of regional, intra- and interannual variability. We find that the processes reflected in the measurements are present throughout multiple simulated monsoon seasons. Dynamical instabilities, photochemical ozone production, lightning and entrainments from the lower troposphere and from the tropopause region determine the distinct composition of the anticyclone and its outflow.
Yann Cohen, Hervé Petetin, Valérie Thouret, Virginie Marécal, Béatrice Josse, Hannah Clark, Bastien Sauvage, Alain Fontaine, Gilles Athier, Romain Blot, Damien Boulanger, Jean-Marc Cousin, and Philippe Nédélec
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5415–5453, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5415-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5415-2018, 2018
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Measurements of ozone and carbon monoxide were performed during 1994–2013 around the tropopause on board commercial aircraft. Seasonal cycles and trends were calculated above eight well-sampled regions in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. CO shows decreasing concentrations over the last 10 years, thus reflecting the impact of the legislation on anthropogenic emissions. Ozone amounts increased over the 20 years in the upper troposphere during different seasons, depending on the longitudes.
Marco de Bruine, Maarten Krol, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Thomas Röckmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1443–1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1443-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1443-2018, 2018
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Precipitation evaporation (PE) and subsequent aerosol resuspension (AR) are currently ignored or implemented only crudely in GCMs. This research introduces PE to Earth system model EC-Earth and explores ways to treat AR and the impact on global aerosol burden. Simple 1:1 scaling of AR with PE leads to an increase (+8 to 15.9 %). Taking into account raindrop size distribution and/or accounting for in-rain aerosol processing decreases aerosol burden -1.5 to 6.2 % and -10 to -11 %, respectively.
Riinu Ots, Mathew R. Heal, Dominique E. Young, Leah R. Williams, James D. Allan, Eiko Nemitz, Chiara Di Marco, Anais Detournay, Lu Xu, Nga L. Ng, Hugh Coe, Scott C. Herndon, Ian A. Mackenzie, David C. Green, Jeroen J. P. Kuenen, Stefan Reis, and Massimo Vieno
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4497–4518, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4497-2018, 2018
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The main hypothesis of this paper is that people who live in large cities in the UK disobey the
smoke control lawas it has not been actively enforced for decades now. However, the use of wood in residential heating has increased, partly due to renewable energy targets, but also for discretionary (i.e. pleasant fireplaces) reasons. Our study is based mainly in London, but similar struggles with urban air quality due to residential wood and coal burning are seen in other major European cities.
Christian Hogrefe, Peng Liu, George Pouliot, Rohit Mathur, Shawn Roselle, Johannes Flemming, Meiyun Lin, and Rokjin J. Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3839–3864, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3839-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3839-2018, 2018
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This study quantifies the impacts of different representations of background ozone in state-of-the-science large-scale models on surface and aloft ozone burdens simulated by the CMAQ regional model over the United States. It also compares both the CMAQ simulations and the driving large-scale models to surface and upper air observations.
Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Koji Ogochi, Kengo Sudo, and Masayuki Takigawa
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 959–988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-959-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-959-2018, 2018
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We evaluate global tropospheric NO2 simulations using a chemical transport model (CTM) at horizontal resolutions of 0.56, 1.1, and 2.8°. Agreement against satellite retrievals improved greatly at 0.56 and 1.1° resolutions (compared to 2.8°) over polluted and biomass burning regions, especially over areas with strong local sources, such as a megacity. The evaluations demonstrate the potential of using a high-resolution global CTM for studying megacity-scale air pollutants across the entire globe.
Jingqiu Mao, Annmarie Carlton, Ronald C. Cohen, William H. Brune, Steven S. Brown, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jose L. Jimenez, Havala O. T. Pye, Nga Lee Ng, Lu Xu, V. Faye McNeill, Kostas Tsigaridis, Brian C. McDonald, Carsten Warneke, Alex Guenther, Matthew J. Alvarado, Joost de Gouw, Loretta J. Mickley, Eric M. Leibensperger, Rohit Mathur, Christopher G. Nolte, Robert W. Portmann, Nadine Unger, Mika Tosca, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2615–2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2615-2018, 2018
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This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing, and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models.
Jingyi Li, Jingqiu Mao, Arlene M. Fiore, Ronald C. Cohen, John D. Crounse, Alex P. Teng, Paul O. Wennberg, Ben H. Lee, Felipe D. Lopez-Hilfiker, Joel A. Thornton, Jeff Peischl, Ilana B. Pollack, Thomas B. Ryerson, Patrick Veres, James M. Roberts, J. Andrew Neuman, John B. Nowak, Glenn M. Wolfe, Thomas F. Hanisco, Alan Fried, Hanwant B. Singh, Jack Dibb, Fabien Paulot, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2341–2361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2341-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2341-2018, 2018
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We present the first comprehensive model evaluation of summertime reactive oxidized nitrogen using a high-resolution chemistry–climate model with up-to-date isoprene oxidation chemistry, along with a series of observations from aircraft campaigns and ground measurement networks from 2004 to 2013 over the Southeast US. We investigate the impact of NOx emission reductions on changes in reactive nitrogen speciation and export efficiency as well as ozone in the past and future decade.
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
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We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
Olaf Morgenstern, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando R. Garcia, Kengo Sudo, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Luke D. Oman, Michael E. Manyin, Guang Zeng, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Laura E. Revell, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Glauco Di Genova, Daniele Visioni, Sandip S. Dhomse, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1091–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, 2018
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We assess how ozone as simulated by a group of chemistry–climate models responds to variations in man-made climate gases and ozone-depleting substances. We find some agreement, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere, but also considerable disagreement elsewhere. Such disagreement affects the reliability of future ozone projections based on these models, and also constitutes a source of uncertainty in climate projections using prescribed ozone derived from these simulations.
Wanyun Xu, Xiaobin Xu, Meiyun Lin, Weili Lin, David Tarasick, Jie Tang, Jianzhong Ma, and Xiangdong Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 773–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-773-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-773-2018, 2018
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The impact of anthropogenic emissions and climate variability on the long-term trends and periodicity of surface ozone measured at Mt Waliguan (WLG) for the period of 1994–2013 is studied. STT ozone and rising emissions in eastern China contribute to spring and autumnal increasing trends, respectively. The 2–3-, 3–7-, and 11-year periodicities in the ozone data are linked to the QBO, EASMI, and sunspot cycle, respectively. An empirical model is obtained for normalised monthly ozone at WLG.
Axel Lauer, Colin Jones, Veronika Eyring, Martin Evaldsson, Stefan Hagemann, Jarmo Mäkelä, Gill Martin, Romain Roehrig, and Shiyu Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 33–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-33-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-33-2018, 2018
Theodore K. Koenig, Rainer Volkamer, Sunil Baidar, Barbara Dix, Siyuan Wang, Daniel C. Anderson, Ross J. Salawitch, Pamela A. Wales, Carlos A. Cuevas, Rafael P. Fernandez, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Mathew J. Evans, Tomás Sherwen, Daniel J. Jacob, Johan Schmidt, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-François Lamarque, Eric C. Apel, James C. Bresch, Teresa Campos, Frank M. Flocke, Samuel R. Hall, Shawn B. Honomichl, Rebecca Hornbrook, Jørgen B. Jensen, Richard Lueb, Denise D. Montzka, Laura L. Pan, J. Michael Reeves, Sue M. Schauffler, Kirk Ullmann, Andrew J. Weinheimer, Elliot L. Atlas, Valeria Donets, Maria A. Navarro, Daniel Riemer, Nicola J. Blake, Dexian Chen, L. Gregory Huey, David J. Tanner, Thomas F. Hanisco, and Glenn M. Wolfe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 15245–15270, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-15245-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-15245-2017, 2017
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Tropospheric inorganic bromine (BrO and Bry) shows a C-shaped profile over the tropical western Pacific Ocean, and supports previous speculation that marine convection is a source for inorganic bromine from sea salt to the upper troposphere. The Bry profile in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is complex, suggesting that the total Bry budget in the TTL is not closed without considering aerosol bromide. The implications for atmospheric composition and bromine sources are discussed.
Sunil Vadakkepuliyambatta, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Gunnar Myhre, Stig B. Dalsøren, Anna Silyakova, Norbert Schmidbauer, Cathrine Lund Myhre, and Jürgen Mienert
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-110, 2017
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Release of methane, one of the major greenhouse gases, from melting hydrates has been proposed as a mechanism that accelerated global warming in the past. We focus on Arctic Ocean warming as a robust case study for accelerated melting of hydrates, assessing the impact of Arctic methane release on global air temperatures during the next century. Contrary to popular belief, it is shown that methane emissions from melting hydrates from the Arctic seafloor is not a major driver of global warming.
Ruth M. Doherty, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, David A. Plummer, Michael J. Prather, Oliver Wild, Meiyun Lin, Drew T. Shindell, and Ian A. Mackenzie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14219–14237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, 2017
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We investigate how climate change impacts global air pollution transport. To study transport changes, we use a carbon monoxide (CO) tracer species emitted from global sources. We find robust and consistent changes in CO-tracer distributions in climate change simulations performed by four chemistry–climate models in different seasons. We highlight the importance of the co-location of emission source regions and controlling transport processes in determining future pollution transport.
Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, Susanne E. Bauer, Marianne T. Lund, Vlassis A. Karydis, Tom L. Kucsera, Xiaohua Pan, Andrea Pozzer, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephen D. Steenrod, Kengo Sudo, Kostas Tsigaridis, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, and Svetlana G. Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12911–12940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12911-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12911-2017, 2017
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Atmospheric nitrate contributes notably to total aerosol mass in the present day and is likely to be more important over the next century, with a projected decline in SO2 and NOx emissions and increase in NH3 emissions. This paper investigates atmospheric nitrate using multiple global models and measurements. The study is part of the AeroCom phase III activity. The study is the first attempt to look at global atmospheric nitrate simulation at physical and chemical process levels.
Lucy S. Neal, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd Folberth, Rachel N. McInnes, Paul Agnew, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nicholas H. Savage, and Marie Tilbee
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3941–3962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3941-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3941-2017, 2017
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This paper concerns aspects of downscaling global atmospheric composition and chemistry model predictions on the continental and UK national scale. A two-step nested model configuration was developed and used to simulate UK air quality for a 5-year period under present-day conditions. The results show some benefits associated with higher-resolution modelling for primary emitted pollutants, but also highlight the importance of consistency between the nested models.
Jerald R. Ziemke, Sarah A. Strode, Anne R. Douglass, Joanna Joiner, Alexander Vasilkov, Luke D. Oman, Junhua Liu, Susan E. Strahan, Pawan K. Bhartia, and David P. Haffner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4067–4078, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4067-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4067-2017, 2017
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We combine satellite measurements of ozone and cloud properties from the Aura OMI and MLS instruments for 2004–2016 to measure ozone in the mid–upper levels of deep convective clouds. Our results ascribe upward injection of low boundary layer ozone (varying from low to high amounts) as a major driver of the measured concentrations of ozone in thick clouds. Our OMI/MLS generated ozone product is made available to the public for use in science applications.
K. Emma Knowland, Ruth M. Doherty, Kevin I. Hodges, and Lesley E. Ott
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12421–12447, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12421-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12421-2017, 2017
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First study to our knowledge to quantify the influence extratropical cyclones have on the temporal variability of springtime surface ozone (O3) measured on the west coast of Europe when cyclones are nearby. We show passing cyclones have a discernible influence on surface O3 concentrations. In-depth findings from four case studies, using a combination of reanalyses and a modeled tracer, demonstrate there are several transport pathways before O3-rich air eventually reaches the surface.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Yves Balkanski, Susanne Bauer, Nicolas Bellouin, Terje K. Berntsen, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl, Richard Easter, Steven J. Ghan, Trond Iversen, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-François Lamarque, Guangxing Lin, Xiaohong Liu, Gan Luo, Gunnar Myhre, Twan van Noije, Joyce E. Penner, Michael Schulz, Øyvind Seland, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Fangqun Yu, Kai Zhang, and Hua Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12197–12218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017, 2017
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The role of aerosols in the changing polar climate is not well understood and the aerosols are poorly constrained in the models. In this study we have compared output from 16 different aerosol models with available observations at both poles. We show that the model median is representative of the observations, but the model spread is large. The Arctic direct aerosol radiative effect over the industrial area is positive during spring due to black carbon and negative during summer due to sulfate.
Andrea Móring, Massimo Vieno, Ruth M. Doherty, Celia Milford, Eiko Nemitz, Marsailidh M. Twigg, László Horváth, and Mark A. Sutton
Biogeosciences, 14, 4161–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4161-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4161-2017, 2017
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This study describes and evaluates a new ammonia (NH3) exchange model for grazed fields (GAG_field). GAG_field is able to simulate the main features of the observed NH3 fluxes. A sensitivity analysis for the non-meteorological model parameters showed that the sensitivity of the NH3 fluxes to a parameter varies among urine patches. Moreover, the fluxes modelled with a dynamic soil pH are similar if a constant pH 7.5 is used, suggesting a useful simplification for regional-scale model application.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Yangyang Xu, Claudia Tebaldi, Michael Wehner, Brian O'Neill, Alexandra Jahn, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Warren G. Strand, Lei Lin, Reto Knutti, and Jean Francois Lamarque
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 827–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017, 2017
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We present the results of a set of climate simulations designed to simulate futures in which the Earth's temperature is stabilized at the levels referred to in the 2015 Paris Agreement. We consider the necessary future emissions reductions and the aspects of extreme weather which differ significantly between the 2 and 1.5 °C climate in the simulations.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje K. Berntsen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Keith P. Shine, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10795–10809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10795-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10795-2017, 2017
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The climate impacts for emissions of different pollutants can be made comparable with weighting factors. This article estimates these weights based on temperature change for short-lived pollutants, such as methane and black carbon. Emissions from different seasons and regions are compared, for instance Europe and East Asia. The responses are calculated for four regions, where we see that the responses can be much higher in the Arctic than globally in some cases.
Maria A. Navarro, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Carlos A. Cuevas, Rafael P. Fernandez, Elliot Atlas, Xavier Rodriguez-Lloveras, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, Troy Thornberry, Andrew Rollins, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, and Fred L. Moore
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9917–9930, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9917-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9917-2017, 2017
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Inorganic bromine (Bry) plays an important role in ozone layer depletion. Based on aircraft observations of organic bromine species and chemistry simulations, we model the Bry abundances over the Pacific tropical tropopause. Our results show BrO and Br as the dominant species during daytime hours, and BrCl and BrONO2 as the nighttime dominant species over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The difference in the partitioning is due to changes in the abundance of O3, NO2, and Cly.
Wolfgang Knorr, Frank Dentener, Jean-François Lamarque, Leiwen Jiang, and Almut Arneth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9223–9236, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9223-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9223-2017, 2017
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Wildfires cause considerable air pollution, and climate change is usually expected to increase both wildfire activity and air pollution from those fires. This study takes a closer look at the problem by examining the role of demographic changes in addition to climate change. It finds that demographics will be the main driver of changes in wildfire activity in many parts of the developing world. Air pollution from wildfires will remain significant, with major implications for air quality policy.
Michael J. Prather, Xin Zhu, Clare M. Flynn, Sarah A. Strode, Jose M. Rodriguez, Stephen D. Steenrod, Junhua Liu, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Larry W. Horowitz, Jingqiu Mao, Lee T. Murray, Drew T. Shindell, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9081–9102, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9081-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9081-2017, 2017
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We present a new approach for comparing atmospheric chemistry models with measurements based on what these models are used to do, i.e., calculate changes in ozone and methane, prime greenhouse gases. This method anticipates a new type of measurements from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission. In comparing the mixture of species within air parcels, we focus on those responsible for key chemical changes and weight these parcels by their chemical reactivity.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann, David J. Beerling, Junji Cao, Shaun Marcott, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Michael J. Prather, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeremy Shakun, Pete Smith, Andrew Lacis, Gary Russell, and Reto Ruedy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 2017
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Global temperature now exceeds +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920, similar to warmth of the Eemian period. Keeping warming less than 1.5 °C or CO2 below 350 ppm now requires extraction of CO2 from the air. If rapid phaseout of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most extraction can be via improved agricultural and forestry practices. In contrast, continued high emissions places a burden on young people of massive technological CO2 extraction with large risks, high costs and uncertain feasibility.
Chris Huntingford, Hui Yang, Anna Harper, Peter M. Cox, Nicola Gedney, Eleanor J. Burke, Jason A. Lowe, Garry Hayman, William J. Collins, Stephen M. Smith, and Edward Comyn-Platt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 617–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, 2017
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Recent UNFCCC climate meetings have placed much emphasis on constraining global warming to remain below 2 °C. The 2015 Paris meeting went further and gave an aspiration to fulfil a 1.5 °C threshold. We provide a flexible set of algebraic global temperature profiles that stabilise to either target. This will potentially allow the climate research community to estimate local climatic implications for these temperature profiles, along with emissions trajectories to fulfil them.
Hyun-Deok Choi, Hongyu Liu, James H. Crawford, David B. Considine, Dale J. Allen, Bryan N. Duncan, Larry W. Horowitz, Jose M. Rodriguez, Susan E. Strahan, Lin Zhang, Xiong Liu, Megan R. Damon, and Stephen D. Steenrod
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8429–8452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8429-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8429-2017, 2017
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We evaluate global ozone–carbon monoxide (O3–CO) correlations in a chemistry and transport model during July–August with TES-Aura satellite observations and examine the sensitivity of model simulations to input meteorological data and emissions. Results show that O3–CO correlations may be used effectively to constrain the sources of regional tropospheric O3 in global 3-D models, especially for those regions where convective transport of pollution plays an important role.
Tatsuya Nagashima, Kengo Sudo, Hajime Akimoto, Junichi Kurokawa, and Toshimasa Ohara
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8231–8246, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8231-2017, 2017
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We showed the large contribution of different source regions in Asia to the recent increasing trend in surface ozone over Japan by using a global chemical transport model. China accounted for the largest part of the increasing trend, not only through the domestic ozone production (36 %) but also the ozone production in the adjacent countries due to the ozone precursors emitted in China (10 %). Other factors such as temporal change in climate and methane concentration were also investigated.
Alex R. Baker, Maria Kanakidou, Katye E. Altieri, Nikos Daskalakis, Gregory S. Okin, Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Frank Dentener, Mitsuo Uematsu, Manmohan M. Sarin, Robert A. Duce, James N. Galloway, William C. Keene, Arvind Singh, Lauren Zamora, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Shih-Chieh Hsu, Shital S. Rohekar, and Joseph M. Prospero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8189–8210, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8189-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8189-2017, 2017
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Man's activities have greatly increased the amount of nitrogen emitted into the atmosphere. Some of this nitrogen is transported to the world's oceans, where it may affect microscopic marine plants and cause ecological problems. The huge size of the oceans makes direct monitoring of nitrogen inputs impossible, so computer models must be used to assess this issue. We find that current models reproduce observed nitrogen deposition to the oceans reasonably well and recommend future improvements.
Kevin M. Smalley, Andrew E. Dessler, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, David A. Plummer, Kiyotaka Shibata, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8031–8044, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017, 2017
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This paper explains a new way to evaluate simulated lower-stratospheric water vapor. We use a multivariate linear regression to predict 21st century lower stratospheric water vapor within 12 chemistry climate models using tropospheric warming, the Brewer–Dobson circulation, and the quasi-biennial oscillation as predictors. This methodology produce strong fits to simulated water vapor, and potentially represents a superior method to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric water vapor.
Juno Hsu, Michael J. Prather, Philip Cameron-Smith, Alex Veidenbaum, and Alex Nicolau
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2525–2545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2525-2017, 2017
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Solar-J is a high-fidelity solar radiative transfer Fortran 90 code. It has been developed for consistently calculating both the photolysis rates of important chemical species and the heating rates of the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. Its spectral range spans from 177 nm to 12 microns. It can be easily dropped in as a module in global climate–chemistry models.
Eri Saikawa, Hankyul Kim, Min Zhong, Alexander Avramov, Yu Zhao, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Jun-ichi Kurokawa, Zbigniew Klimont, Fabian Wagner, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, and Qiang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6393–6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6393-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6393-2017, 2017
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We analyze differences in existing air pollutant emission estimates to better understand the magnitude of emissions as well as the source regions and sectors of air pollution in China. We find large disagreements among the inventories, and we show that these differences have a significant impact on regional air quality simulations. Better understanding of air pollutant emissions at more disaggregated levels is essential for air pollution mitigation in China.
Klaus-D. Gottschaldt, Hans Schlager, Robert Baumann, Heiko Bozem, Veronika Eyring, Peter Hoor, Patrick Jöckel, Tina Jurkat, Christiane Voigt, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6091–6111, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6091-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6091-2017, 2017
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We present upper-tropospheric trace gas measurements in the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone, obtained with the HALO research aircraft in September 2012. The anticyclone is one of the largest atmospheric features on Earth, but many aspects of it are not well understood. With the help of model simulations we find that entrainments from the tropopause region and the lower troposphere, combined with photochemistry and dynamical instabilities, can explain the observations.
Min Huang, Gregory R. Carmichael, R. Bradley Pierce, Duseong S. Jo, Rokjin J. Park, Johannes Flemming, Louisa K. Emmons, Kevin W. Bowman, Daven K. Henze, Yanko Davila, Kengo Sudo, Jan Eiof Jonson, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Frank J. Dentener, Terry J. Keating, Hilke Oetjen, and Vivienne H. Payne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5721–5750, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5721-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5721-2017, 2017
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In support of the HTAP phase 2 experiment, we conducted a number of regional-scale Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model base and sensitivity simulations over North America during May–June 2010. The STEM chemical boundary conditions were downscaled from three (GEOS-Chem, RAQMS, and ECMWF C-IFS) global chemical transport models' simulations. Analyses were performed on large spatial–temporal scales relative to HTAP1 and also on subcontinental and event scales including the use of satellite data.
Chun Lin, Mathew R. Heal, Massimo Vieno, Ian A. MacKenzie, Ben G. Armstrong, Barbara K. Butland, Ai Milojevic, Zaid Chalabi, Richard W. Atkinson, David S. Stevenson, Ruth M. Doherty, and Paul Wilkinson
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1767–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1767-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1767-2017, 2017
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We evaluated EMEP4UK-WRF v4.3 atmospheric chemistry transport simulations at 5 km horizontal resolution over the UK for use in air pollution epidemiology and health burden assessment. Model-measurement comparison focused on daily and annual means for NO2, O3, PM10, and PM2.5. Important statistics for evaluation of air-quality model output against policy (and hence health)-relevant standards – correlation, bias, and root mean square error – were evaluated by site type, year, month and day-of-week.
Daniel Cariolle, Philippe Moinat, Hubert Teyssèdre, Luc Giraud, Béatrice Josse, and Franck Lefèvre
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1467–1485, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1467-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1467-2017, 2017
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This article reports on the development and tests of the adaptive semi-implicit scheme (ASIS) solver for the simulation of atmospheric chemistry. To solve the ordinary differential equations associated with the time evolution of the species concentrations, ASIS adopts a one-step linearized implicit scheme. It conserves mass and has a time-stepping module to control the accuracy of the numerical solution. ASIS was found competitive in terms of computation cost against higher-order schemes.
Thomas Gasser, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, William J. Collins, Drew T. Shindell, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 235–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, 2017
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Emission metrics such as GWP or GTP are used to put non-CO2 species on a
CO2-equivalentscale. In the fifth IPCC report the metrics are inconsistent, as the climate–carbon feedback is included only for CO2 but not for non-CO2 species. Here, we simulate a new impulse response function for the feedback, and we use it to correct the metrics. For instance, 1 g of CH4 is equivalent to 31 g of CO2 (instead of 28 g) following the corrected GWP100 metric. It is 34 g if other factors are also updated.
Yi Yin, Frederic Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Anne Cozic, Sophie Szopa, and Yilong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-166, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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CO inverse modelling studies have so far reported significant discrepancies between model concentrations optimised with the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite retrievals and surface in-situ measurements. Here, we assess how well a global CTM fits a large variety of independent CO observations before and after assimilating MOPITTv6 retrievals to optimise CO sources/sink and discuss potential sources of errors and their implications for global CO modelling studies.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
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Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Meiyun Lin, Larry W. Horowitz, Richard Payton, Arlene M. Fiore, and Gail Tonnesen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2943–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2943-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2943-2017, 2017
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US ozone pollution responds to varying global-to-regional precursor emissions and climate, with implications for designing effective air quality control policies. Asian anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors tripled since 1990, contributing 65 % to western US ozone increases in spring, outpacing ozone decreases attained via 50 % US emission controls. In the eastern US, if emissions had not declined, more frequent hot extremes since 1990 would have worsened the highest ozone events in summer.
Gunnar Myhre, Wenche Aas, Ribu Cherian, William Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Piers Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Zbigniew Klimont, Marianne T. Lund, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Dirk Olivié, Michael Prather, Johannes Quaas, Bjørn H. Samset, Jordan L. Schnell, Michael Schulz, Drew Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Svetlana Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017
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Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The global mean radiative forcing is more strongly positive than reported in IPCC AR5.
Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I. Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando R. Garcia, Steven C. Hardiman, Larry W. Horowitz, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Michael E. Manyin, Marion Marchand, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, 2017
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We present a review of the make-up of 20 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). In comparison to earlier such activities, most of these models comprise a whole-atmosphere chemistry, and several of them include an interactive ocean module. This makes them suitable for studying the interactions of tropospheric air quality, stratospheric ozone, and climate. The paper lays the foundation for other studies using the CCMI simulations for scientific analysis.
Alba Badia, Oriol Jorba, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Donald Dabdub, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Andreas Hilboll, María Gonçalves, and Zavisa Janjic
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 609–638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-609-2017, 2017
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This paper presents a comprehensive description and benchmark evaluation of the tropospheric gas-phase chemistry component of the Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry model (NMMB-MONARCH), an online chemical weather prediction system conceived for both the regional and global scales. We provide an extensive evaluation of a global annual cycle simulation using a variety of background surface stations, ozonesondes, aircraft data and satellite observations.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
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We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Rafael P. Fernandez, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, and Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1673–1688, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1673-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1673-2017, 2017
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The inclusion of biogenic very-short lived bromine (VSLBr) in a chemistry-climate model produces an expansion of the ozone hole area of ~ 5 million km2, which is equivalent in magnitude to the recently estimated Antarctic ozone healing due to the reduction of anthropogenic CFCs and halons. The maximum Antarctic ozone hole depletion increases by up to 14 % when natural VSLBr are considered, but does not introduce a significant delay of the modelled ozone return date to 1980 October levels.
Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Henk Eskes, Kengo Sudo, K. Folkert Boersma, Kevin Bowman, and Yugo Kanaya
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 807–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-807-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-807-2017, 2017
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Global surface emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over a 10-year period (2005–2014) are estimated from assimilation of multiple satellite datasets. We present detailed distributions of the estimated NOx emission distributions for all major regions, the diurnal, seasonal, and decadal variability. The estimated emissions show a positive trend over India, China, and the Middle East, and a negative trend over the United States, southern Africa, and western Europe.
Christopher P. Webber, Helen F. Dacre, William J. Collins, and Giacomo Masato
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 867–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-867-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-867-2017, 2017
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The influence of synoptic meteorology on UK PM10 concentration ([PM110]) is analysed. ERA-Interim reanalysis data are used to detect upper-tropospheric wave breaking that explains much of the UK winter synoptic meteorological variability. Wave breaking is shown to positively impact UK [PM10], with a persistent Ω block feature resulting in the greatest probability of exceeding a hazardous UK [PM10]. The meteorological dynamics of UK PM10 exceedances are better understood following this study.
Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, John M. C. Plane, Carlos A. Cuevas, Anoop S. Mahajan, Jean-François Lamarque, and Douglas E. Kinnison
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15593–15604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15593-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15593-2016, 2016
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Electronic structure calculations are used to survey possible reactions that HOI and I2 could undergo at night in the lower troposphere, and hence reconcile measurements and models. The reactions NO3 + HOI and I2 + NO3 are included in two models to explore a new nocturnal iodine radical activation mechanism, leading to a reduction of nighttime HOI and I2. This chemistry can have a large impact on NO3 levels in the MBL, and hence upon the nocturnal oxidizing capacity of the marine atmosphere.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Bojan Sič, Laaziz El Amraoui, Andrea Piacentini, Virginie Marécal, Emanuele Emili, Daniel Cariolle, Michael Prather, and Jean-Luc Attié
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5535–5554, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5535-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5535-2016, 2016
Riinu Ots, Massimo Vieno, James D. Allan, Stefan Reis, Eiko Nemitz, Dominique E. Young, Hugh Coe, Chiara Di Marco, Anais Detournay, Ian A. Mackenzie, David C. Green, and Mathew R. Heal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13773–13789, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13773-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13773-2016, 2016
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Emissions of cooking organic aerosol (COA; from charbroiling, frying, etc.) are currently absent in European emissions inventories yet measurements have pointed to significant COA concentrations. In this study, emissions of COA were developed for the UK by model iteration against year-long measurements at two sites in London. Modelled COA dropped rapidly outside of major urban areas, suggesting that although a notable component in UK urban air, COA does not have a significant effect on rural PM.
Camilla Weum Stjern, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Yanko Davila, Frank Dentener, Louisa Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Amund Søvde Haslerud, Daven Henze, Jan Eiof Jonson, Tom Kucsera, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Michael Schulz, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13579–13599, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13579-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13579-2016, 2016
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Air pollution can reach distant regions through intercontinental transport. Here we first present results from the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 exercise, where many models performed the same set of coordinated emission-reduction experiments. We find that mitigations have considerable extra-regional effects, and show that this is particularly true for black carbon emissions, as long-range transport elevates aerosols to higher levels where their radiative influence is stronger.
Veronika Eyring, Peter J. Gleckler, Christoph Heinze, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, V. Balaji, Eric Guilyardi, Sylvie Joussaume, Stephan Kindermann, Bryan N. Lawrence, Gerald A. Meehl, Mattia Righi, and Dean N. Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 813–830, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-813-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-813-2016, 2016
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We argue that the CMIP community has reached a critical juncture at which many baseline aspects of model evaluation need to be performed much more efficiently to enable a systematic and rapid performance assessment of the large number of models participating in CMIP, and we announce our intention to implement such a system for CMIP6. At the same time, continuous scientific research is required to develop innovative metrics and diagnostics that help narrowing the spread in climate projections.
Line Jourdain, Tjarda Jane Roberts, Michel Pirre, and Beatrice Josse
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12099–12125, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12099-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12099-2016, 2016
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Ambrym Volcano (Vanuatu, southwest Pacific) is one of the largest sources of continuous volcanic emissions worldwide. We performed a modeling study that confirms the strong influence of Ambrym emissions during an extreme degassing event of early 2005 on the composition of the atmosphere on the local and regional scales. It also stresses the importance of considering reactive halogen chemistry in the volcanic plume when assessing the impact of volcanic emissions on climate.
Brian C. O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, George Hurtt, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jason Lowe, Gerald A. Meehl, Richard Moss, Keywan Riahi, and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016
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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. The design consists of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions. Climate model projections will facilitate integrated studies of climate change as well as address targeted scientific questions.
B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, K. S. Law, N. Daskalakis, G. Ancellet, C. Clerbaux, S.-W. Kim, M. T. Lund, G. Myhre, D. J. L. Olivié, S. Safieddine, R. B. Skeie, J. L. Thomas, S. Tsyro, A. Bazureau, N. Bellouin, M. Hu, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, S. Myriokefalitakis, J. Quaas, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. Cherian, A. Shimizu, J. Wang, S.-C. Yoon, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10765–10792, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10765-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10765-2016, 2016
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This paper evaluates the ability of six global models and one regional model in reproducing short-lived pollutants (defined here as ozone and its precursors, aerosols and black carbon) concentrations over Asia using satellite, ground-based and airborne observations.
Key findings are that models homogeneously reproduce the trace gas observations although nitrous oxides are underestimated, whereas the aerosol distributions are heterogeneously reproduced, implicating important uncertainties.
Alemu Gonsamo, Jing M. Chen, Drew T. Shindell, and Gregory P. Asner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 717–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-717-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-717-2016, 2016
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Using 3 decades of observational satellite and field data, we find that long-term changes in sea ice and sea level, plant phenology, and surface temperature are coherent with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and other global greenhouse gases. During the same period, natural causes of climate change should only have a net cooling long-term effect, suggesting the observed coherent pattern of changes across Earth's biological and physical systems could only be due to human activities.
Lei Sun, Likun Xue, Tao Wang, Jian Gao, Aijun Ding, Owen R. Cooper, Meiyun Lin, Pengju Xu, Zhe Wang, Xinfeng Wang, Liang Wen, Yanhong Zhu, Tianshu Chen, Lingxiao Yang, Yan Wang, Jianmin Chen, and Wenxing Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10637–10650, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10637-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10637-2016, 2016
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We compiled the available observations of surface O3 at Mt. Tai – the highest mountain in the North China Plain, and found a significant increase of O3 concenrations from 2003 to 2015. The observed O3 increase was mainly due to the increase of O3 precursors, especially VOCs. Our analysis shows that controlling NOx alone, in the absence of VOC controls, is not sufficient to reduce regional O3 levels in North China in a short period.
Stéphane Mangeon, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Richard Gilham, Anna Harper, Stephen Sitch, and Gerd Folberth
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2685–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2685-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2685-2016, 2016
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To understand the role of fires in the Earth system, global fire models are required. In this paper we describe the INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments (INFERNO). It follows a reduced complexity approach using mainly temperature, humidity and precipitation. INFERNO was found to perform well on a global scale and to maintain regional patterns over the 1997–2011 period of study, despite regional biases particularly linked to fuel consumption.
Raquel A. Silva, J. Jason West, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, William J. Collins, Stig Dalsoren, Greg Faluvegi, Gerd Folberth, Larry W. Horowitz, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naik, Steven T. Rumbold, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, Daniel Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, Irene Cionni, Ruth M. Doherty, Veronika Eyring, Beatrice Josse, Ian A. MacKenzie, David Plummer, Mattia Righi, David S. Stevenson, Sarah Strode, Sophie Szopa, and Guang Zengast
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9847–9862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, 2016
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Using ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models for the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, we quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution in 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to 2000 concentrations. We also estimate the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period.
Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, Nicolas Bellouin, William J. Collins, Greg Faluvegi, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9785–9804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9785-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9785-2016, 2016
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Computer models are our primary tool to investigate how fossil-fuel emissions are affecting the climate. Here, we used three different climate models to see how they simulate the response to removing sulfur dioxide emissions from China. We found that the models disagreed substantially on how large the climate effect is from the emissions in this region. This range of outcomes is concerning if scientists or policy makers have to rely on any one model when performing their own studies.
Yuqiang Zhang, Jared H. Bowden, Zachariah Adelman, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven J. Smith, and J. Jason West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9533–9548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9533-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9533-2016, 2016
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Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can also improve air quality. We estimate the co-benefits of global GHG mitigation for US air quality in 2050 at fine resolution by downscaling from a previous global study. Foreign GHG mitigation under RCP4.5 contributes more to the US O3 reduction (76 % of the total) than domestic mitigation and contributes 26 % of the PM2.5 reduction. Therefore, the US gains significantly greater air quality co-benefits by coordinating GHG controls internationally.
Ryan Reynolds Neely III, Andrew J. Conley, Francis Vitt, and Jean-François Lamarque
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2459–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2459-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2459-2016, 2016
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We describe an updated scheme for prescribing stratospheric aerosol in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). The inadequate response of the CESM1 to large volcanic disturbances to the stratospheric aerosol layer (such as the 1991 Pinatubo eruption) in comparison to observations motivates the need for a new parameterization. Simulations utilizing the new scheme successfully reproduce the observed global mean and local stratospheric temperature response to the Pinatubo eruption.
Chul E. Chung, Jung-Eun Chu, Yunha Lee, Twan van Noije, Hwayoung Jeoung, Kyung-Ja Ha, and Marguerite Marks
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8071–8080, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8071-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8071-2016, 2016
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Currently, the magnitude of aerosol direct forcing is estimated to range from −0.85 W m−2 to +0.15 W m−2. The uncertainty in estimated aerosol direct forcing is largely due to uncertainties in global aerosol simulation models. We processed a comprehensive suite of observations and developed creative uses of observations to constrain aerosol simulations. The net results are that (i) we reduced the forcing uncertainty and (ii) we showed that the forcing must be less negative than the consensus.
D. L. Finney, R. M. Doherty, O. Wild, and N. L. Abraham
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7507–7522, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7507-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7507-2016, 2016
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Lightning is a source of nitric oxide (NO) and, through chemical reactions of NO, impacts ozone production. A new method for modelling global lightning markedly alters ozone concentration in the upper troposphere and frequency characteristics of ozone production compared to earlier treatments. Simulated lightning and ozone concentrations now better match observations. Reducing uncertainties associated with lightning NO is important for understanding atmospheric composition and radiative forcing.
Sarah A. Strode, Helen M. Worden, Megan Damon, Anne R. Douglass, Bryan N. Duncan, Louisa K. Emmons, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael Manyin, Luke D. Oman, Jose M. Rodriguez, Susan E. Strahan, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7285–7294, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7285-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7285-2016, 2016
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We use global models to interpret trends in MOPITT observations of CO. Simulations with time-dependent emissions reproduce the observed trends over the eastern USA and Europe, suggesting that the emissions are reasonable for these regions. The simulations produce a positive trend over eastern China, contrary to the observed negative trend. This may indicate that the assumed emission trend over China is too positive. However, large variability in the overhead ozone column also contributes.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
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Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Riinu Ots, Dominique E. Young, Massimo Vieno, Lu Xu, Rachel E. Dunmore, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Leah R. Williams, Scott C. Herndon, Nga L. Ng, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, Robert Bergström, Chiara Di Marco, Eiko Nemitz, Ian A. Mackenzie, Jeroen J. P. Kuenen, David C. Green, Stefan Reis, and Mathew R. Heal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6453–6473, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6453-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6453-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the contribution of diesel vehicle emissions to organic aerosol formation and particulate matter concentrations in London. Comparisons of simulated pollutant concentrations with observations show good agreement and give confidence in the skill of the model applied. The contribution of diesel vehicle emissions, which are currently not included in official emissions inventories, is demonstrated to be substantial, indicating that more research on this topic is required.
Veronika Eyring, Sandrine Bony, Gerald A. Meehl, Catherine A. Senior, Bjorn Stevens, Ronald J. Stouffer, and Karl E. Taylor
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016
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The objective of CMIP is to better understand past, present, and future climate change in a multi-model context. CMIP's increasing importance and scope is a tremendous success story, but the need to address an ever-expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to revise the organization of CMIP. In response to these challenges, we have adopted a more federated structure for the sixth phase of CMIP (i.e. CMIP6) and subsequent phases.
Simone Tilmes, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Louisa K. Emmons, Doug E. Kinnison, Dan Marsh, Rolando R. Garcia, Anne K. Smith, Ryan R. Neely, Andrew Conley, Francis Vitt, Maria Val Martin, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Isobel Simpson, Don R. Blake, and Nicola Blake
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1853–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1853-2016, 2016
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The state of the art Community Earth System Model, CESM1 CAM4-chem has been used to perform reference and sensitivity simulations as part of the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Specifics of the model and details regarding the setup of the simulations are described. In additions, the main behavior of the model, including selected chemical species have been evaluated with climatological datasets. This paper is therefore a references for studies that use the provided model results.
Marje Prank, Mikhail Sofiev, Svetlana Tsyro, Carlijn Hendriks, Valiyaveetil Semeena, Xavier Vazhappilly Francis, Tim Butler, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Rainer Friedrich, Johannes Hendricks, Xin Kong, Mark Lawrence, Mattia Righi, Zissis Samaras, Robert Sausen, Jaakko Kukkonen, and Ranjeet Sokhi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6041–6070, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6041-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6041-2016, 2016
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Aerosol composition in Europe was simulated by four chemistry transport models and compared to observations to identify the most prominent areas for model improvement. Notable differences were found between the models' predictions, attributable to different treatment or omission of aerosol sources and processes. All models underestimated the observed concentrations by 10–60 %, mostly due to under-predicting the carbonaceous and mineral particles and omitting the aerosol-bound water.
Veronika Eyring, Mattia Righi, Axel Lauer, Martin Evaldsson, Sabrina Wenzel, Colin Jones, Alessandro Anav, Oliver Andrews, Irene Cionni, Edouard L. Davin, Clara Deser, Carsten Ehbrecht, Pierre Friedlingstein, Peter Gleckler, Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Stefan Hagemann, Martin Juckes, Stephan Kindermann, John Krasting, Dominik Kunert, Richard Levine, Alexander Loew, Jarmo Mäkelä, Gill Martin, Erik Mason, Adam S. Phillips, Simon Read, Catherine Rio, Romain Roehrig, Daniel Senftleben, Andreas Sterl, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Jeremy Walton, Shiyu Wang, and Keith D. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, 2016
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A community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) in CMIP has been developed that allows for routine comparison of single or multiple models, either against predecessor versions or against observations.
Yunha Lee, Drew T. Shindell, Greg Faluvegi, and Rob W. Pinder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5323–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5323-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5323-2016, 2016
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We studied the impact of US air quality (AQ) regulations and hypothetical CO2 reduction policy on public health and climate change. We find that AQ regulations are projected to have strong health benefits in the near future but result in a positive radiative forcing (RF), ~ 0.8 W m−2, over the USA. Under the US CO2 policy we find air quality co-benefits. However, despite CO2 reductions, it leads to overall positive RF (+0.22 W m−2 in 2055) over the USA mainly by lowering SO2 via less coal usage.
Hongyu Liu, David B. Considine, Larry W. Horowitz, James H. Crawford, Jose M. Rodriguez, Susan E. Strahan, Megan R. Damon, Stephen D. Steenrod, Xiaojing Xu, Jules Kouatchou, Claire Carouge, and Robert M. Yantosca
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4641–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4641-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4641-2016, 2016
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We assess the utility of cosmogenic beryllium-7, a natural aerosol tracer, for evaluating cross-tropopause transport in global models. We show that model excessive cross-tropopause transport of beryllium-7 corresponds to overestimated stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone. We conclude that the observational constraints for beryllium-7 and observed beryllium-7 total deposition fluxes can be used routinely as a first-order assessment of cross-tropopause transport in global models.
Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, and Robert Sausen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4481–4495, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4481-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4481-2016, 2016
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Using a global aerosol model, we estimate the impact of aviation emissions on aerosol and climate in 2030 for different scenarios. The aviation impacts on particle number are found to be much more important than the impact on aerosol mass and significantly contribute to the overall increase in particle number concentration between 2000 and 2030. This leads to a large aviation-induced climate effect (mostly driven by aerosol-cloud interactions), a factor of 2 to 4 larger than in the year 2000.
Min Zhong, Eri Saikawa, Yang Liu, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Masayuki Takigawa, Yu Zhao, Neng-Huei Lin, and Elizabeth A. Stone
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1201–1218, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1201-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1201-2016, 2016
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Large discrepancies exist among emission inventories (e.g., REAS and EDGAR) at the provincial level in China. We use WRF-Chem to evaluate the impact of the difference in existing emission inventories and find that emissions inputs significantly affect our air pollutant simulation results. Our study highlights the importance of constraining emissions at the provincial level for regional air quality modeling over East Asia.
Andrea Móring, Massimo Vieno, Ruth M. Doherty, Johannes Laubach, Arezoo Taghizadeh-Toosi, and Mark A. Sutton
Biogeosciences, 13, 1837–1861, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1837-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1837-2016, 2016
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A process-based, weather-driven model for ammonia emission from a urine patch has been developed and its sensitivity to various factors assessed. The model can simulate the ammoniacal nitrogen content, pH and the water content of the soil under a urine patch.
The simulated variables were in a good agreement with the measurements. The sensitivity analysis highlighted the vital role of temperature in ammonia exchange. The model is potentially suitable for larger scale application.
N. I. Kristiansen, A. Stohl, D. J. L. Olivié, B. Croft, O. A. Søvde, H. Klein, T. Christoudias, D. Kunkel, S. J. Leadbetter, Y. H. Lee, K. Zhang, K. Tsigaridis, T. Bergman, N. Evangeliou, H. Wang, P.-L. Ma, R. C. Easter, P. J. Rasch, X. Liu, G. Pitari, G. Di Genova, S. Y. Zhao, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, G. S. Faluvegi, H. Kokkola, R. V. Martin, J. R. Pierce, M. Schulz, D. Shindell, H. Tost, and H. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3525–3561, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3525-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3525-2016, 2016
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Processes affecting aerosol removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood. In this study we investigate to what extent atmospheric transport models can reproduce observed loss of aerosols. We compare measurements of radioactive isotopes, that attached to ambient sulfate aerosols during the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident, to 19 models using identical emissions. Results indicate aerosol removal that is too fast in most models, and apply to aerosols that have undergone long-range transport.
Christopher E. Sioris, Jason Zou, David A. Plummer, Chris D. Boone, C. Thomas McElroy, Patrick E. Sheese, Omid Moeini, and Peter F. Bernath
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3265–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3265-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3265-2016, 2016
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The AM (annular mode) is the most important internal mode of climatic variability at high latitudes. Upper tropospheric water vapour (UTWV) at high latitudes increases by up to ~ 50 % during the negative phase of the AMs. The response of water vapour to the AMs vanishes above the tropopause. The ultimate goal of the study was to improve UTWV trend uncertainties by explaining shorter-term variability, and this was achieved by accounting for the AM-related response in a multiple linear regression.
Shipeng Zhang, Minghuai Wang, Steven J. Ghan, Aijun Ding, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Toshihiko Takeamura, Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Yunha Lee, Drew T. Shindell, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, Zak Kipling, and Congbin Fu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2765–2783, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2765-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2765-2016, 2016
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The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in several climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes. Regimes with strong large-scale ascent are shown to be as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. AIE over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing. These results point to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.
G. M. Wolfe, J. Kaiser, T. F. Hanisco, F. N. Keutsch, J. A. de Gouw, J. B. Gilman, M. Graus, C. D. Hatch, J. Holloway, L. W. Horowitz, B. H. Lee, B. M. Lerner, F. Lopez-Hilifiker, J. Mao, M. R. Marvin, J. Peischl, I. B. Pollack, J. M. Roberts, T. B. Ryerson, J. A. Thornton, P. R. Veres, and C. Warneke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2597–2610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2597-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2597-2016, 2016
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This study uses airborne trace gas observations acquired over the southeast US to examine how both natural (isoprene) and anthropogenic (NOx) emissions influence the production of formaldehyde (HCHO). We find a 3-fold increase in HCHO yield between rural and polluted environments. State-of-the-science chemical mechanisms are generally able to reproduce this behavior. These results add confidence to global hydrocarbon emission inventories constrained by spaceborne HCHO observations.
Zak Kipling, Philip Stier, Colin E. Johnson, Graham W. Mann, Nicolas Bellouin, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl, Steven J. Ghan, Trond Iversen, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Xiaohong Liu, Gan Luo, Twan van Noije, Kirsty J. Pringle, Knut von Salzen, Michael Schulz, Øyvind Seland, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Kai Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2221–2241, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2221-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2221-2016, 2016
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The vertical distribution of atmospheric aerosol is an important factor in its effects on climate. In this study we use a sophisticated model of the many interacting processes affecting aerosol in the atmosphere to show that the vertical distribution is typically dominated by only a few of these processes. Constraining these physical processes may help to reduce the large differences between models. However, the important processes are not always the same for different types of aerosol.
F. Paulot, P. Ginoux, W. F. Cooke, L. J. Donner, S. Fan, M.-Y. Lin, J. Mao, V. Naik, and L. W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1459–1477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1459-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1459-2016, 2016
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We characterize the sensitivity of NO3 optical depth (OD) to both the sources of its precursors (NH3 and HNO3) and to its surface sinks. Uncertainties in the heterogeneous chemistry of HNO3 and the near-surface volatilization of NH4NO3 can cause up to 25 % difference in the global NO3 OD. Simulated NO3 OD increases little (< 30 %) in response to changes in emissions (2010 to 2050). Better constraints on the tropical flux of NH3 into the free troposphere are needed to improve estimates of NO3 OD.
J. Guth, B. Josse, V. Marécal, M. Joly, and P. Hamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 137–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-137-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-137-2016, 2016
N. Bândă, M. Krol, M. van Weele, T. van Noije, P. Le Sager, and T. Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 195–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-195-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-195-2016, 2016
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We quantify the processes responsible for methane growth rate variability in the period 1990 to 1995, a period with variations in climate and radiation due to the Pinatubo eruption. We find significant contributions from changes in the methane emission from wetlands, and in the methane removal by OH caused by stratospheric aerosols, by the decrease in temperature and water vapour, by stratospheric ozone depletion and by changes in emissions of CO and NMVOC.
F. Iglesias-Suarez, P. J. Young, and O. Wild
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 343–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-343-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-343-2016, 2016
J. He, Y. Zhang, S. Tilmes, L. Emmons, J.-F. Lamarque, T. Glotfelty, A. Hodzic, and F. Vitt
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3999–4025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3999-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3999-2015, 2015
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The global simulations with CB05_GE and MOZART-4x predict similar chemical profiles for major gases compared to aircraft measurements, with better agreement for the NOy profile by CB05_GE. The SOA concentrations of SOA at four sites in CONUS and organic carbon over the IMPROVE sites are better predicted by MOZART-4x. The two simulations result in a global average difference of 0.5W m-2 in simulated shortwave cloud radiative forcing, with up to 13.6W m-2 over subtropical regions.
T. Verbeke, J. Lathière, S. Szopa, and N. de Noblet-Ducoudré
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13555–13568, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13555-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13555-2015, 2015
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Dry deposition is a key component of surface-atmosphere exchange of compounds, acting as a sink for several chemical species and strongly driven by meteorological factors, chemical properties of the trace gas considered and land surface properties. The objective of our study is to investigate the impact of vegetation distribution change, which is still not very well quantified, on the dry deposition of key atmospheric species: ozone and nitric acid vapor.
Y. Zheng, N. Unger, A. Hodzic, L. Emmons, C. Knote, S. Tilmes, J.-F. Lamarque, and P. Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13487–13506, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13487-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13487-2015, 2015
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Nitrogen oxides (NOx) play an important but complex role in secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. In this study we update the SOA scheme in a global 3-D chemistry-climate model by implementing a 4-product volatility basis set (VBS) framework with NOx-dependent yields and simplified aging parameterizations. We find that the SOA decrease in response to a 50% reduction in anthropogenic NOx emissions is limited due to the buffering in different chemical pathways.
D. M. Westervelt, L. W. Horowitz, V. Naik, J.-C. Golaz, and D. L. Mauzerall
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12681–12703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12681-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12681-2015, 2015
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Decreases in aerosols over the 21st century as projected by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) lead to increases up to 0.5 - 1 ºC in global temperature and up to 0.05 - 0.1 mm/day in global precipitation, depending strongly on present-day aerosol radiative forcing. In East Asia, future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 10-20% of the total temperature increase (30-40% with strong present-day aerosol forcing), even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5).
D. Pendlebury, D. Plummer, J. Scinocca, P. Sheese, K. Strong, K. Walker, and D. Degenstein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12465–12485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12465-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12465-2015, 2015
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The CMAM30 data set takes a chemistry-climate model and relaxes the dynamics to reanalysis, which can then provide chemistry fields not available from the reanalysis data set. This paper addresses this gap by comparing temperature, water vapour, ozone and methane to satellite data to determine and document any biases in the model fields. The lack of ozone destruction and dehydration in the SH polar vortex is shown to be due to the treatment of polar stratosphere clouds in the model.
S. A. Strode, B. N. Duncan, E. A. Yegorova, J. Kouatchou, J. R. Ziemke, and A. R. Douglass
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11789–11805, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11789-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11789-2015, 2015
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A low bias in carbon monoxide (CO) at northern latitudes is a common feature of chemistry climate models. We find that increasing Northern Hemisphere (NH) CO emissions or reducing NH OH concentrations improves the agreement with CO surface observations, but reducing NH OH leads to a better comparison with MOPITT. Removing model biases in ozone and water vapor increases the simulated methane lifetime, but it does not give the 20% reduction in NH OH suggested by our analysis of the CO bias.
J. L. Schnell, M. J. Prather, B. Josse, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, P. Cameron-Smith, D. Bergmann, G. Zeng, D. A. Plummer, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, D. T. Shindell, G. Faluvegi, and S. A. Strode
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10581–10596, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, 2015
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We test global chemistry--climate models in their ability to simulate present-day surface ozone. Models are tested against observed hourly ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1°x1° grid cells. Using novel metrics, we find most models match the shape but not the amplitude of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles and match the pattern but not the magnitude of summer ozone enhancement. Most also match the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes
M. Gil-Ojeda, M. Navarro-Comas, L. Gómez-Martín, J. A. Adame, A. Saiz-Lopez, C. A. Cuevas, Y. González, O. Puentedura, E. Cuevas, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Kinninson, and S. Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10567–10579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10567-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10567-2015, 2015
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The NO2 seasonal evolution in the free troposphere (FT) has been established for the first time, based on a remote sensing technique (MAXDOAS) and thus avoiding the problems of the local pollution of in situ instruments. A clear seasonality has been found, with background levels of 20-40pptv. Evidence has been found on fast, direct injection of surface air into the free troposphere. This result might have implications on the FT distribution of halogens and other species with marine sources.
A. Stohl, B. Aamaas, M. Amann, L. H. Baker, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, R. Cherian, W. Collins, N. Daskalakis, M. Dusinska, S. Eckhardt, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. Harju, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, J. Hao, U. Im, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Maas, C. R. MacIntosh, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, D. Olivié, J. Quaas, B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, K. P. Shine, R. B. Skeie, S. Wang, K. E. Yttri, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10529–10566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, 2015
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This paper presents a summary of the findings of the ECLIPSE EU project. The project has investigated the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (especially methane, ozone, aerosols) and has designed a global mitigation strategy that maximizes co-benefits between air quality and climate policy. Transient climate model simulations allowed quantifying the impacts on temperature (e.g., reduction in global warming by 0.22K for the decade 2041-2050) and precipitation.
V. Marécal, V.-H. Peuch, C. Andersson, S. Andersson, J. Arteta, M. Beekmann, A. Benedictow, R. Bergström, B. Bessagnet, A. Cansado, F. Chéroux, A. Colette, A. Coman, R. L. Curier, H. A. C. Denier van der Gon, A. Drouin, H. Elbern, E. Emili, R. J. Engelen, H. J. Eskes, G. Foret, E. Friese, M. Gauss, C. Giannaros, J. Guth, M. Joly, E. Jaumouillé, B. Josse, N. Kadygrov, J. W. Kaiser, K. Krajsek, J. Kuenen, U. Kumar, N. Liora, E. Lopez, L. Malherbe, I. Martinez, D. Melas, F. Meleux, L. Menut, P. Moinat, T. Morales, J. Parmentier, A. Piacentini, M. Plu, A. Poupkou, S. Queguiner, L. Robertson, L. Rouïl, M. Schaap, A. Segers, M. Sofiev, L. Tarasson, M. Thomas, R. Timmermans, Á. Valdebenito, P. van Velthoven, R. van Versendaal, J. Vira, and A. Ung
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2777–2813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, 2015
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This paper describes the air quality forecasting system over Europe put in place in the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate projects. It provides daily and 4-day forecasts and analyses for the previous day for major gas and particulate pollutants and their main precursors. These products are based on a multi-model approach using seven state-of-the-art models developed in Europe. An evaluation of the performance of the system is discussed in the paper.
K. P. Shine, R. P. Allan, W. J. Collins, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 525–540, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-525-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-525-2015, 2015
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Emissions due to human activity impact on rainfall. This impact depends on the properties of the gases or particles that are emitted. This paper uses improved understanding of relevant processes to produce a new measure, called the Global Precipitation-change Potential, which allows a direct comparison of the effect of different emissions on global-mean rainfall. Carbon dioxide, in the years following its emission, is shown to be less effective than methane emissions at causing rainfall change.
S. Eckhardt, B. Quennehen, D. J. L. Olivié, T. K. Berntsen, R. Cherian, J. H. Christensen, W. Collins, S. Crepinsek, N. Daskalakis, M. Flanner, A. Herber, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, L. Huang, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, J. Langner, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Mahmood, A. Massling, S. Myriokefalitakis, I. E. Nielsen, J. K. Nøjgaard, J. Quaas, P. K. Quinn, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, S. Sharma, R. B. Skeie, H. Skov, T. Uttal, K. von Salzen, and A. Stohl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9413–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9413-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9413-2015, 2015
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The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from different updated models and emissions against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set. We find that the models improved but still struggle to get the maximum concentrations.
M. J. Prather
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2587–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2587-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2587-2015, 2015
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A new approach for modeling photolysis rates (J values) in atmospheres with fractional cloud cover has been developed and is implemented as Cloud-J – a multi-scattering eight-stream radiative transfer model for solar radiation based on Fast-J. Using observations of the vertical correlation of cloud layers, Cloud-J provides a practical and accurate method for modeling atmospheric chemistry, which can be extended to solar heating rates.
J. K. Kodros, C. E. Scott, S. C. Farina, Y. H. Lee, C. L'Orange, J. Volckens, and J. R. Pierce
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8577–8596, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8577-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8577-2015, 2015
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We examine sensitivities in aerosol concentration and climate effects from biofuel combustion emissions. We find a strong sensitivity in the overall sign and magnitude of the direct radiative effect and cloud-albedo indirect effect due to uncertainties regarding emissions size distribution, composition, mass, and optical mixing state. This uncertainty limits our ability to evaluate black carbon mitigation strategies to counter warming effects from greenhouse gases.
K. Miyazaki, H. J. Eskes, and K. Sudo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8315–8348, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8315-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8315-2015, 2015
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This paper reports on an 8-year reanalysis of tropospheric chemistry based on an assimilation of multiple satellite-derived data sets. The reanalysis performed well on regional and global scales and for seasonal and interannual variations. The simultaneous assimilation of multiple-species data, involving the optimisation of both concentration and emission fields, provides unique information on year-to-year variations in the atmospheric environment.
L. H. Baker, W. J. Collins, D. J. L. Olivié, R. Cherian, Ø. Hodnebrog, G. Myhre, and J. Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8201–8216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, 2015
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We investigate the impact of removing land-based anthropogenic emissions of three aerosol species, using four fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Removing SO2 emissions leads to warming globally, strongest in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and an increase in NH precipitation. Organic and black carbon (OC, BC) have a weaker impact, and less certainty on the response; OC (BC) removal shows a weak overall warming (cooling), and both show small increases in precipitation globally.
K. Ishijima, M. Takigawa, K. Sudo, S. Toyoda, N. Yoshida, T. Röckmann, J. Kaiser, S. Aoki, S. Morimoto, S. Sugawara, and T. Nakazawa
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-19947-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-19947-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We developed an atmospheric N2O isotopocule model based on a chemistry-coupled atmospheric general circulation model and a simple method to optimize the model, and estimated the isotopic signatures of surface sources at the hemispheric scale. Data obtained from ground-based observations, measurements of firn air, and balloon and aircraft flights were used to optimize the long-term trends, interhemispheric gradients, and photolytic fractionation, respectively, in the model.
L. K. Emmons, S. R. Arnold, S. A. Monks, V. Huijnen, S. Tilmes, K. S. Law, J. L. Thomas, J.-C. Raut, I. Bouarar, S. Turquety, Y. Long, B. Duncan, S. Steenrod, S. Strode, J. Flemming, J. Mao, J. Langner, A. M. Thompson, D. Tarasick, E. C. Apel, D. R. Blake, R. C. Cohen, J. Dibb, G. S. Diskin, A. Fried, S. R. Hall, L. G. Huey, A. J. Weinheimer, A. Wisthaler, T. Mikoviny, J. Nowak, J. Peischl, J. M. Roberts, T. Ryerson, C. Warneke, and D. Helmig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6721–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6721-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6721-2015, 2015
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Eleven 3-D tropospheric chemistry models have been compared and evaluated with observations in the Arctic during the International Polar Year (IPY 2008). Large differences are seen among the models, particularly related to the model chemistry of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and reactive nitrogen (NOx, PAN, HNO3) partitioning. Consistency among the models in the underestimation of CO, ethane and propane indicates the emission inventory is too low for these compounds.
S. Tilmes, J.-F. Lamarque, L. K. Emmons, D. E. Kinnison, P.-L. Ma, X. Liu, S. Ghan, C. Bardeen, S. Arnold, M. Deeter, F. Vitt, T. Ryerson, J. W. Elkins, F. Moore, J. R. Spackman, and M. Val Martin
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1395–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1395-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1395-2015, 2015
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The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), version 5, is now coupled to extensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, called CAM5-chem, and is available in addition to CAM4-chem in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.2. Both configurations are well suited as tools for atmospheric chemistry modeling studies in the troposphere and lower stratosphere.
P. H. Lauritzen, A. J. Conley, J.-F. Lamarque, F. Vitt, and M. A. Taylor
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1299–1313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1299-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1299-2015, 2015
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This test extends the evaluation of transport schemes from prescribed advection of inert scalars to reactive species. It consists of transporting two reacting chlorine-like species in an idealized flow field. The sources/sinks are given by a simple but non-linear toy chemistry that mimics photolysis-driven processes near the solar terminator. As a result, strong gradients in the spatial distribution of the species develop near the edge of the terminator.
J. Flemming, V. Huijnen, J. Arteta, P. Bechtold, A. Beljaars, A.-M. Blechschmidt, M. Diamantakis, R. J. Engelen, A. Gaudel, A. Inness, L. Jones, B. Josse, E. Katragkou, V. Marecal, V.-H. Peuch, A. Richter, M. G. Schultz, O. Stein, and A. Tsikerdekis
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 975–1003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-975-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-975-2015, 2015
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We describe modules for atmospheric chemistry, wet and dry deposition and lightning NO production, which have been newly introduced in ECMWF's weather forecasting model. With that model, we want to forecast global air pollution as part of the European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. We show that the new model results compare as well or better with in situ and satellite observations of ozone, CO, NO2, SO2 and formaldehyde as the previous model.
K. E. Knowland, R. M. Doherty, and K. I. Hodges
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3605–3628, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3605-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3605-2015, 2015
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Novel use of combined meteorology and composition reanalysis data and compositing methodologies to characterize pollutant distributions of ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) in "typical" intense springtime storms versus the background environment for the period 2003--2012. Clear signals of O3 and CO redistributed horizontally and vertically throughout storms. In particular, the lofting of CO-rich/O3-poor air in the warm conveyor belt and the descent of O3-rich/CO-poor air in the dry intrusion.
M. Righi, V. Eyring, K.-D. Gottschaldt, C. Klinger, F. Frank, P. Jöckel, and I. Cionni
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 733–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-733-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-733-2015, 2015
Y. H. Lee, P. J. Adams, and D. T. Shindell
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 631–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-631-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-631-2015, 2015
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We have implemented the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics model in NASA GISS ModelE2, called “ModelE2-TOMAS”. We compared global budgets of ModelE2-TOMAS to other global aerosol models and evaluated the model with various observations such as aerosol precursor gas, aerosol mass, number concentrations, and aerosol optical depth. We found that ModelE2-TOMAS agrees with observations reasonably and that its predictions are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions.
F. Pacifico, G. A. Folberth, S. Sitch, J. M. Haywood, L. V. Rizzo, F. F. Malavelle, and P. Artaxo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2791–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2791-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2791-2015, 2015
M. Val Martin, C. L. Heald, J.-F. Lamarque, S. Tilmes, L. K. Emmons, and B. A. Schichtel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2805–2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015, 2015
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We present for the first time the relative effect of climate, emissions, and land use change on ozone and PM25 over the United States, focusing on the national parks. Air quality in 2050 will likely be dominated by emission patterns, but climate and land use changes alone can lead to a substantial increase in air pollution over most of the US, with important implications for O3 air quality, visibility and ecosystem health degradation in the national parks.
C. Prados-Roman, C. A. Cuevas, R. P. Fernandez, D. E. Kinnison, J-F. Lamarque, and A. Saiz-Lopez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2215–2224, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2215-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2215-2015, 2015
B. Sič, L. El Amraoui, V. Marécal, B. Josse, J. Arteta, J. Guth, M. Joly, and P. D. Hamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 381–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-381-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-381-2015, 2015
M. Righi, J. Hendricks, and R. Sausen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 633–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-633-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-633-2015, 2015
C. Prados-Roman, C. A. Cuevas, T. Hay, R. P. Fernandez, A. S. Mahajan, S.-J. Royer, M. Galí, R. Simó, J. Dachs, K. Großmann, D. E. Kinnison, J.-F. Lamarque, and A. Saiz-Lopez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 583–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-583-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-583-2015, 2015
S. Tilmes, M. J. Mills, U. Niemeier, H. Schmidt, A. Robock, B. Kravitz, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Pitari, and J. M. English
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 43–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015, 2015
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A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment “G4 specified stratospheric aerosols” (G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments.
R. P. Fernandez, R. J. Salawitch, D. E. Kinnison, J.-F. Lamarque, and A. Saiz-Lopez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13391–13410, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13391-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13391-2014, 2014
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We propose the existence of a daytime “tropical ring of atomic bromine” surrounding the tropics at a height between 15 and 19km. Our simulations show that VSL bromocarbons produce increases of 3pptv for inorganic bromine and 2pptv for organic bromine in the tropical TTL on an annual average, resulting in a total stratospheric bromine injection of 5pptv. This result suggests that the inorganic bromine injected into the stratosphere may be larger than that from VSL bromocarbons.
A. Saiz-Lopez, R. P. Fernandez, C. Ordóñez, D. E. Kinnison, J. C. Gómez Martín, J.-F. Lamarque, and S. Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13119–13143, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13119-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13119-2014, 2014
D. L. Finney, R. M. Doherty, O. Wild, H. Huntrieser, H. C. Pumphrey, and A. M. Blyth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12665–12682, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12665-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12665-2014, 2014
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Lightning is important in atmospheric chemistry models as a source of
nitrogen oxides which affect the greenhouse gases ozone and methane. We
present a new approach to modelling lightning using the upward movement of
ice in clouds, an essential part of the charging mechanism in thunderstorms.
The new approach performs well compared to those already in use and provides
a novel, physically based scheme that has the potential to improve the
robustness of simulated flash rates and emissions.
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, A. Herber, Y. Kondo, S.-M. Li, N. Moteki, M. Koike, N. Oshima, J. P. Schwarz, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, M. Chin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12465–12477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014, 2014
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Short summary
Far from black carbon (BC) emission sources, present climate models are unable to reproduce flight measurements. By comparing recent models with data, we find that the atmospheric lifetime of BC may be overestimated in models. By adjusting modeled BC concentrations to measurements in remote regions - over oceans and at high altitudes - we arrive at a reduced estimate for BC radiative forcing over the industrial era.
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Revised manuscript not accepted
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Y. Fang, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, and D. L. Mauzerall
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1377–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1377-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1377-2013, 2013
D. A. Belikov, S. Maksyutov, M. Krol, A. Fraser, M. Rigby, H. Bian, A. Agusti-Panareda, D. Bergmann, P. Bousquet, P. Cameron-Smith, M. P. Chipperfield, A. Fortems-Cheiney, E. Gloor, K. Haynes, P. Hess, S. Houweling, S. R. Kawa, R. M. Law, Z. Loh, L. Meng, P. I. Palmer, P. K. Patra, R. G. Prinn, R. Saito, and C. Wilson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1093–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1093-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1093-2013, 2013
N. J. Livesey, J. A. Logan, M. L. Santee, J. W. Waters, R. M. Doherty, W. G. Read, L. Froidevaux, and J. H. Jiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 579–598, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-579-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-579-2013, 2013
A. J. Turner, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, and M. Bauer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 565–578, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-565-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-565-2013, 2013
C. D. Holmes, M. J. Prather, O. A. Søvde, and G. Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 285–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-285-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-285-2013, 2013
M. Sand, T. K. Berntsen, J. E. Kay, J. F. Lamarque, Ø. Seland, and A. Kirkevåg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 211–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-211-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-211-2013, 2013
Ø. Hodnebrog, T. K. Berntsen, O. Dessens, M. Gauss, V. Grewe, I. S. A. Isaksen, B. Koffi, G. Myhre, D. Olivié, M. J. Prather, F. Stordal, S. Szopa, Q. Tang, P. van Velthoven, and J. E. Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12211–12225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012, 2012
J. G. John, A. M. Fiore, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, and J. P. Dunne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12021–12036, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12021-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12021-2012, 2012
G. Lacressonnière, V.-H. Peuch, J. Arteta, B. Josse, M. Joly, V. Marécal, D. Saint Martin, M. Déqué, and L. Watson
Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1565–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1565-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1565-2012, 2012
L. K. Emmons, P. G. Hess, J.-F. Lamarque, and G. G. Pfister
Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1531–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1531-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1531-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
Estimating the variability in NOx emissions from Wuhan with TROPOMI NO2 data during 2018 to 2023
Enhanced understanding of atmospheric blocking modulation on ozone dynamics within a high-resolution Earth system model
Natural emissions of VOC and NOx over Africa constrained by TROPOMI HCHO and NO2 data using the MAGRITTEv1.1 model
Anthropogenic emission controls reduce summertime ozone–temperature sensitivity in the United States
Investigating the response of China's surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factors
Assessing the relative impacts of satellite ozone and its precursor observations to improve global tropospheric ozone analysis using multiple chemical reanalysis systems
Evaluating present-day and future impacts of agricultural ammonia emissions on atmospheric chemistry and climate
Air-pollution-satellite-based CO2 emission inversion: system evaluation, sensitivity analysis, and future research direction
Insights into ozone pollution control in urban areas by decoupling meteorological factors based on machine learning
Quantification of regional net CO2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements
Reactive nitrogen in and around the northeastern and mid-Atlantic US: sources, sinks, and connections with ozone
Preindustrial-to-present-day changes in atmospheric carbon monoxide: agreement and gaps between ice archives and global model reconstructions
Investigating processes influencing simulation of local Arctic wintertime anthropogenic pollution in Fairbanks, Alaska, during ALPACA-2022
Urban ozone formation and sensitivities to volatile chemical products, cooking emissions, and NOx upwind of and within two Los Angeles Basin cities
Causes of growing middle-to-upper tropospheric ozone over the northwest Pacific region
Impact of introducing electric vehicles on ground-level O3 and PM2.5 in the Greater Tokyo Area: yearly trends and the importance of changes in the urban heat island effect
A CO2–Δ14CO2 inversion setup for estimating European fossil CO2 emissions
Maximum ozone concentrations in the southwestern US and Texas: implications of the growing predominance of the background contribution
Derivation of atmospheric reaction mechanisms for volatile organic compounds by the SAPRC mechanism generation system (MechGen)
Seasonal, regional, and vertical characteristics of high-carbon-monoxide plumes along with their associated ozone anomalies, as seen by IAGOS between 2002 and 2019
The potential of drone observations to improve air quality predictions by 4D-Var
Process analysis of elevated concentrations of organic acids at Whiteface Mountain, New York
Sensitivity of climate-chemistry model simulated atmospheric composition to lightning-produced NOx parameterizations based on lightning frequency
Ozone source attribution in polluted European areas during summer 2017 as simulated with MECO(n)
Surface ozone trend variability across the United States and the impact of heatwaves (1990–2023)
Opinion: Challenges and needs of tropospheric chemical mechanism development
Decrease of the European NOx anthropogenic emissions between 2005 and 2019 as seen from the OMI and TROPOMI NO2 satellite observations
Tracking daily NOx emissions from an urban agglomeration based on TROPOMI NO2 and a local ensemble transform Kalman filter
The atmospheric oxidizing capacity in China – Part 2: Sensitivity to emissions of primary pollutants
Role of chemical production and depositional losses on formaldehyde in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM)
Review of source analyses of ambient volatile organic compounds considering reactive losses: methods of reducing loss effects, impacts of losses, and sources
Interpreting summertime hourly variation of NO2 columns with implications for geostationary satellite applications
An investigation into atmospheric nitrous acid (HONO) processes in South Korea
Performance evaluation of UKESM1 for surface ozone across the pan-tropics
Constraining light dependency in modeled emissions through comparison to observed biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) concentrations in a southeastern US forest
A global re-analysis of regionally resolved emissions and atmospheric mole fractions of SF6 for the period 2005–2021
Monoterpene oxidation pathways initiated by acyl peroxy radical addition
Tropospheric ozone precursors: global and regional distributions, trends, and variability
Sensitivity of climate effects of hydrogen to leakage size, location, and chemical background
The contribution of transport emissions to ozone mixing ratios and methane lifetime in 2015 and 2050 in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
Local and transboundary contributions to nitrogen loadings across East Asia using CMAQ-ISAM and GEMS-informed emissions inventory during the winter-spring transition
Ether and ester formation from peroxy radical recombination: a qualitative reaction channel analysis
ACEIC: a comprehensive anthropogenic chlorine emission inventory for China
Impact of methane and other precursor emission reductions on surface ozone in Europe: scenario analysis using the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – West (MSC-W) model
High-resolution mapping of on-road vehicle emissions with real-time traffic datasets based on big data
Chemistry-climate feedback of atmospheric methane in a methane emission flux driven chemistry-climate model
Verifying national inventory-based combustion emissions of CO2 across the UK and mainland Europe using satellite observations of atmospheric CO and CO2
Revisiting the high tropospheric ozone over Southern Africa: overestimated biomass burning and underestimated anthropogenic emissions
Source contribution to ozone pollution during June 2021 in Arizona: Insights from WRF-Chem tagged O3 and CO
An improved estimate of inorganic iodine emissions from the ocean using a coupled surface microlayer box model
Qianqian Zhang, K. Folkert Boersma, Chiel van der Laan, Alba Mols, Bin Zhao, Shengyue Li, and Yuepeng Pan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3313–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3313-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3313-2025, 2025
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Accurate NOx emission estimates are required to better understand air pollution. This study investigates and demonstrates the ability of the superposition column model in combination with TROPOMI tropospheric NO2 column data to estimate city-scale NOx emissions and lifetimes and their variabilities. The results of this work nevertheless confirm the strength of the superposition column model in estimating urban NOx emissions with reasonable accuracy.
Wenbin Kou, Yang Gao, Dan Tong, Xiaojie Guo, Xiadong An, Wenyu Liu, Mengshi Cui, Xiuwen Guo, Shaoqing Zhang, Huiwang Gao, and Lixin Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3029–3048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3029-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3029-2025, 2025
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Unlike traditional numerical studies, we apply a high-resolution Earth system model, improving simulations of surface ozone and large-scale circulations such as atmospheric blocking. Besides local heat waves, we quantify the impact of atmospheric blocking on downstream ozone concentrations, which is closely associated with the blocking position. We identify three major pathways of Rossby wave propagation, stressing the critical role of large-scale circulation in regional air quality.
Beata Opacka, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Jean-François Müller, Isabelle De Smedt, Jos van Geffen, Eloise A. Marais, Rebekah P. Horner, Dylan B. Millet, Kelly C. Wells, and Alex B. Guenther
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2863–2894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2863-2025, 2025
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Vegetation releases biogenic volatile organic compounds, while soils and lightning contribute to the natural emissions of nitrogen oxides into the atmosphere. These gases interact in complex ways. Using satellite data and models, we developed a new method to simultaneously optimize these natural emissions over Africa in 2019. Our approach resulted in an increase in natural emissions, supported by independent data indicating that current estimates are underestimated.
Shuai Li, Haolin Wang, and Xiao Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2725–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2725-2025, 2025
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Summertime ozone–temperature sensitivity has decreased by 50 % from 3.0 ppbv per K in 1990 to 1.5 ppb per K in 2021 in the US. GEOS-Chem simulations show that anthropogenic nitrogen oxide emission reduction is the dominant driver of ozone–temperature sensitivity decline by influencing both temperature direct and temperature indirect processes. Reduced ozone–temperature sensitivity has decreased ozone enhancement from low to high temperatures by an average of 6.8 ppbv across the US.
Jinya Yang, Yutong Wang, Lei Zhang, and Yu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2649–2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2649-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2649-2025, 2025
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We develop a modeling framework to predict future ozone concentrations (till the 2060s) in China following an IPCC scenario. We evaluate the contributions of climatic, anthropogenic, and biogenic factors by season and region. We find persistent emission controls will alter the nonlinear response of ozone to its precursors and dominate the declining ozone level. The outcomes highlight the importance of human actions, even with a climate penalty on air quality.
Takashi Sekiya, Emanuele Emili, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Antje Inness, Zhen Qu, R. Bradley Pierce, Dylan Jones, Helen Worden, William Y. Y. Cheng, Vincent Huijnen, and Gerbrand Koren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2243–2268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2243-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2243-2025, 2025
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Five global chemical reanalysis datasets were used to assess the relative impacts of assimilating satellite ozone and its precursor measurements on tropospheric ozone analyses for 2010. The multiple reanalysis system comparison allows an evaluation of the dependency of the impacts on different reanalysis systems. The results suggested the importance of satellite ozone and its precursor measurements for improving ozone analysis in the whole troposphere, with varying magnitudes among the systems.
Maureen Beaudor, Didier Hauglustaine, Juliette Lathière, Martin Van Damme, Lieven Clarisse, and Nicolas Vuichard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2017–2046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025, 2025
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Agriculture is the biggest ammonia (NH3) source, impacting air quality, climate, and ecosystems. Because of food demand, NH3 emissions are projected to rise by 2100. Using a global model, we analyzed the impact of present and future NH3 emissions generated from a land model. Our results show improved ammonia patterns compared to a reference inventory. Future scenarios predict up to 70 % increase in global NH3 burden, with significant changes in radiative forcing that can greatly elevate N2O.
Hui Li, Jiaxin Qiu, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1949–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1949-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1949-2025, 2025
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We conduct a sensitivity analysis with 31 tests on various factors including prior emissions, model resolution, satellite constraint, and other system configurations to assess the vulnerability of emission estimates across temporal, sectoral, and regional dimensions. This reveals the robustness of emissions estimated by this air-pollution-satellite-based CO2 emission inversion system, with relative change between tests and base inversion below 4.0 % for national annual NOx and CO2 emissions.
Yuqing Qiu, Xin Li, Wenxuan Chai, Yi Liu, Mengdi Song, Xudong Tian, Qiaoli Zou, Wenjun Lou, Wangyao Zhang, Juan Li, and Yuanhang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1749–1763, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1749-2025, 2025
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The chemical reactions of ozone (O3) formation are related to meteorology and local emissions. Here, a random forest approach was used to eliminate the effects of meteorological factors (dispersion or transport) on O3 and its precursors. Variations in the sensitivity of O3 formation and the apportionment of emission sources were revealed after meteorological normalization. Our results suggest that meteorological variations should be considered when diagnosing O3 formation.
Jeongmin Yun, Junjie Liu, Brendan Byrne, Brad Weir, Lesley E. Ott, Kathryn McKain, Bianca C. Baier, Luciana V. Gatti, and Sebastien C. Biraud
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1725–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1725-2025, 2025
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This study quantifies errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO2 flux estimates from an inverse model ensemble using airborne CO2 measurements. Our results show that flux error estimates based on observations significantly exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of flux estimates in regions with high fossil fuel emissions. This finding suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates, associated with errors in the fossil fuel emissions common to all models.
Min Huang, Gregory R. Carmichael, Kevin W. Bowman, Isabelle De Smedt, Andreas Colliander, Michael H. Cosh, Sujay V. Kumar, Alex B. Guenther, Scott J. Janz, Ryan M. Stauffer, Anne M. Thompson, Niko M. Fedkin, Robert J. Swap, John D. Bolten, and Alicia T. Joseph
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1449–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1449-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1449-2025, 2025
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We use model simulations along with multiplatform, multidisciplinary observations and a range of analysis methods to estimate and understand the distributions, temporal changes, and impacts of reactive nitrogen and ozone over the most populous US region that has undergone significant environmental changes. Deposition, biogenic emissions, and extra-regional sources have been playing increasingly important roles in controlling pollutant budgets in this area as local anthropogenic emissions drop.
Xavier Faïn, Sophie Szopa, Vaishali Naïk, Patricia Martinerie, David M. Etheridge, Rachael H. Rhodes, Cathy M. Trudinger, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Kévin Fourteau, and Philip Place
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1105–1119, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1105-2025, 2025
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Carbon monoxide (CO) plays a crucial role in the atmosphere's oxidizing capacity. In this study, we analyse how historical (1850–2014) [CO] outputs from state-of-the-art global chemistry–climate models over Greenland and Antarctica are able to capture both absolute values and trends recorded in multi-site ice archives. A disparity in [CO] growth rates emerges in the Northern Hemisphere between models and observations from 1920–1975 CE, possibly linked to uncertainties in CO emission factors.
Natalie Brett, Kathy S. Law, Steve R. Arnold, Javier G. Fochesatto, Jean-Christophe Raut, Tatsuo Onishi, Robert Gilliam, Kathleen Fahey, Deanna Huff, George Pouliot, Brice Barret, Elsa Dieudonné, Roman Pohorsky, Julia Schmale, Andrea Baccarini, Slimane Bekki, Gianluca Pappaccogli, Federico Scoto, Stefano Decesari, Antonio Donateo, Meeta Cesler-Maloney, William Simpson, Patrice Medina, Barbara D'Anna, Brice Temime-Roussel, Joel Savarino, Sarah Albertin, Jingqiu Mao, Becky Alexander, Allison Moon, Peter F. DeCarlo, Vanessa Selimovic, Robert Yokelson, and Ellis S. Robinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1063–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1063-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1063-2025, 2025
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Processes influencing dispersion of local anthropogenic pollution in Arctic wintertime are investigated with Lagrangian dispersion modelling. Simulated power plant plume rise that considers temperature inversion layers improves results compared to observations (interior Alaska). Modelled surface concentrations are improved by representation of vertical mixing and emission estimates. Large increases in diesel vehicle emissions at temperatures reaching −35°C are required to reproduce observed NOx.
Chelsea E. Stockwell, Matthew M. Coggon, Rebecca H. Schwantes, Colin Harkins, Bert Verreyken, Congmeng Lyu, Qindan Zhu, Lu Xu, Jessica B. Gilman, Aaron Lamplugh, Jeff Peischl, Michael A. Robinson, Patrick R. Veres, Meng Li, Andrew W. Rollins, Kristen Zuraski, Sunil Baidar, Shang Liu, Toshihiro Kuwayama, Steven S. Brown, Brian C. McDonald, and Carsten Warneke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1121–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1121-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1121-2025, 2025
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In urban areas, emissions from everyday products like paints, cleaners, and personal care products, along with non-traditional sources such as cooking, are increasingly important and impact air quality. This study uses a box model to evaluate how these emissions impact ozone in the Los Angeles Basin and quantifies the impact of gaseous cooking emissions. Accurate representation of these and other anthropogenic sources in inventories is crucial for informing effective air quality policies.
Xiaodan Ma, Jianping Huang, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, and Tianliang Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 943–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-943-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-943-2025, 2025
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Our research explored changes in ozone levels in the northwest Pacific region over 30 years, revealing a significant increase in the middle-to-upper troposphere, especially during spring and summer. This rise is influenced by both stratospheric and tropospheric sources, which affect climate and air quality in East Asia. This work underscores the need for continued study to understand underlying mechanisms.
Hiroo Hata, Norifumi Mizushima, and Tomohiko Ihara
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1037–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1037-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1037-2025, 2025
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The introduction of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is expected to reduce the primary air pollutants from vehicular exhaust and evaporative emissions while reducing the anthropogenic heat produced by vehicles, ultimately mitigating the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This study revealed the impact of introducing BEVs on the decrease in the UHI effect and the impact of BEVs on the formation of tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter in the Greater Tokyo Area of Japan.
Carlos Gómez-Ortiz, Guillaume Monteil, Sourish Basu, and Marko Scholze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 397–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-397-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-397-2025, 2025
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In this paper, we test new implementations of our inverse modeling tool to estimate the weekly and regional CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in Europe. We use synthetic atmospheric observations of CO2 and radiocarbon (14CO2) to trace emissions to their sources, while separating the natural and fossil CO2. Our tool accurately estimates fossil CO2 emissions in densely monitored regions like western/central Europe. This approach aids in developing strategies for reducing CO2 emissions.
David D. Parrish, Ian C. Faloona, and Richard G. Derwent
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 263–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-263-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-263-2025, 2025
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Observation-based estimates of contributions to maximum ozone (O3) concentrations show that background O3 can exceed the air quality standard of 70 ppb in the southwestern US, precluding standard attainment. Over the past 4 decades, US anthropogenic O3 has decreased by a factor of ~ 6.3, while wildfire contributions have increased, so that the background now dominates maximum concentrations, even in Los Angeles, and the occurrence of maximum O3 has shifted from the eastern to the western US.
William P. L. Carter, Jia Jiang, John J. Orlando, and Kelley C. Barsanti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 199–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-199-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-199-2025, 2025
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This paper describes the scientific basis for gas-phase atmospheric chemical mechanisms derived using the SAPRC mechanism generation system, MechGen. It can derive mechanisms for most organic compounds with C, H, O, or N atoms, including initial reactions of organics with OH, O3, NO3, and O3P or by photolysis, as well as the reactions of the various types of intermediates that are formed. The paper includes a description of areas of uncertainty where additional research and updates are needed.
Thibaut Lebourgeois, Bastien Sauvage, Pawel Wolff, Béatrice Josse, Virginie Marécal, Yasmine Bennouna, Romain Blot, Damien Boulanger, Hannah Clark, Jean-Marc Cousin, Philippe Nedelec, and Valérie Thouret
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13975–14004, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13975-2024, 2024
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Our study examines intense-carbon-monoxide (CO) pollution events measured by commercial aircraft from the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) research infrastructure. We combine these measurements with the SOFT-IO model to trace the origin of the observed CO. A comprehensive analysis of the geographical origin, source type, seasonal variation, and ozone levels of these pollution events is provided.
Hassnae Erraji, Philipp Franke, Astrid Lampert, Tobias Schuldt, Ralf Tillmann, Andreas Wahner, and Anne Caroline Lange
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13913–13934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13913-2024, 2024
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Four-dimensional variational data assimilation allows for the simultaneous optimisation of initial values and emission rates by using trace-gas profiles from drone observations in a regional air quality model. Assimilated profiles positively impact the representation of air pollutants in the model by improving their vertical distribution and ground-level concentrations. This case study highlights the potential of drone data to enhance air quality analyses including local emission evaluation.
Christopher Lawrence, Mary Barth, John Orlando, Paul Casson, Richard Brandt, Daniel Kelting, Elizabeth Yerger, and Sara Lance
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13693–13713, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13693-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13693-2024, 2024
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This work uses chemical transport and box modeling to study the gas- and aqueous-phase production of organic acid concentrations measured in cloud water at the summit of Whiteface Mountain on 1 July 2018. Isoprene was the major source of formic, acetic, and oxalic acid. Gas-phase chemistry greatly underestimated formic and acetic acid, indicating missing sources, while cloud chemistry was a key source of oxalic acid. More studies of organic acids are required to better constrain their sources.
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Heidi Huntrieser, Patrick Jöckel, and Eric J. Bucsela
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3348, 2024
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Lightning plays a significant role in tropospheric chemistry by producing substantial amounts of nitrogen oxides. According to recent estimates, thunderstorms that produce a higher lightning frequency rate also produce less nitrogen oxide per flash. We implemented the dependency of nitrogen oxide production per flash on lightning flash frequency in a chemical atmospheric model.
Markus Kilian, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Mariano Mertens, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13503–13523, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13503-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13503-2024, 2024
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Anthropogenic emissions are a major source of precursors of tropospheric ozone. As ozone formation is highly non-linear, we apply a global–regional chemistry–climate model with a source attribution method (tagging) to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to ozone. Our analysis shows that the contribution of European anthropogenic emissions largely increases during large ozone periods, indicating that emissions from these sectors drive ozone values.
Kai-Lan Chang, Brian C. McDonald, and Owen R. Cooper
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3674, 2024
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Exposure to high levels of ozone can be harmful to human health. This study shows consistent and robust evidence of decreasing ozone extremes across much of the United States over 1990–2023, previously attributed to ozone precursor emission controls. Nevertheless, we also show that the increasing heatwave frequencies are likely to contribute to additional ozone exceedances, slowing the progress of decreasing the frequency of ozone exceedances.
Barbara Ervens, Andrew Rickard, Bernard Aumont, William P. L. Carter, Max McGillen, Abdelwahid Mellouki, John Orlando, Bénédicte Picquet-Varrault, Paul Seakins, William R. Stockwell, Luc Vereecken, and Timothy J. Wallington
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13317–13339, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13317-2024, 2024
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Chemical mechanisms describe the chemical processes in atmospheric models that are used to describe the changes in the atmospheric composition. Therefore, accurate chemical mechanisms are necessary to predict the evolution of air pollution and climate change. The article describes all steps that are needed to build chemical mechanisms and discusses the advances and needs of experimental and theoretical research activities needed to build reliable chemical mechanisms.
Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Grégoire Broquet, Robin Plauchu, Elise Potier, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Adrien Martinez, Rimal Abeed, Gaelle Dufour, Adriana Coman, Dilek Savas, Guillaume Siour, Henk Eskes, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, and Stijn N. C. Dellaert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3679, 2024
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This study assesses the potential of the OMI and TROPOMI satellite observations to inform about the evolution of NOx anthropogenic emissions between year 2005 and year 2019 at the regional to national scales in Europe. Both the OMI and TROPOMI inversions show decreases in European NOx anthropogenic emission budgets between 2005 and 2019, but with different magnitudes.
Yawen Kong, Bo Zheng, and Yuxi Liu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2996, 2024
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Current high-resolution satellite remote sensing technologies provide a unique opportunity to derive timely, high-resolution emission data. We developed an emission inversion system to assimilate satellite NO2 data to obtain daily, kilometer-scale NOx emission inventories. Our results enhance inventory accuracy, allowing us to capture the effects of pollution control policies on daily emissions (e.g., during COVID-19 lockdown) and improve fine-scale air quality modeling.
Jianing Dai, Guy P. Brasseur, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Maria Kanakidou, Kun Qu, Yijuan Zhang, Hongliang Zhang, and Tao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12943–12962, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12943-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12943-2024, 2024
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This paper employs a regional chemical transport model to quantify the sensitivity of air pollutants and photochemical parameters to specified emission reductions in China for representative winter and summer conditions. The study provides insights into further air quality control in China with reduced primary emissions.
T. Nash Skipper, Emma L. D'Ambro, Forwood C. Wiser, V. Faye McNeill, Rebecca H. Schwantes, Barron H. Henderson, Ivan R. Piletic, Colleen B. Baublitz, Jesse O. Bash, Andrew R. Whitehill, Lukas C. Valin, Asher P. Mouat, Jennifer Kaiser, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Thomas F. Hanisco, Alan Fried, Bryan K. Place, and Havala O.T. Pye
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12903–12924, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12903-2024, 2024
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We develop the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM) version 2 to improve predictions of formaldehyde in ambient air compared to satellite-, aircraft-, and ground-based observations. With the updated chemistry, we estimate the cancer risk from inhalation exposure to ambient formaldehyde across the contiguous USA and predict that 40 % of this risk is controllable through reductions in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides and reactive organic carbon.
Baoshuang Liu, Yao Gu, Yutong Wu, Qili Dai, Shaojie Song, Yinchang Feng, and Philip K. Hopke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12861–12879, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12861-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12861-2024, 2024
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Reactive loss of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is a long-term issue yet to be resolved in VOC source analyses. We assess common methods of, and existing issues in, reducing losses, impacts of losses, and sources in current source analyses. We offer a potential supporting role for solving issues of VOC conversion. Source analyses of consumed VOCs that reacted to produce ozone and secondary organic aerosols can play an important role in the effective control of secondary pollution in air.
Deepangsu Chatterjee, Randall V. Martin, Chi Li, Dandan Zhang, Haihui Zhu, Daven K. Henze, James H. Crawford, Ronald C. Cohen, Lok N. Lamsal, and Alexander M. Cede
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12687–12706, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12687-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12687-2024, 2024
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We investigate the hourly variation of NO2 columns and surface concentrations by applying the GEOS-Chem model to interpret aircraft and ground-based measurements over the US and Pandora sun photometer measurements over the US, Europe, and Asia. Corrections to the Pandora columns and finer model resolution improve the modeled representation of the summertime hourly variation of total NO2 columns to explain the weaker hourly variation in NO2 columns than at the surface.
Kiyeon Kim, Kyung Man Han, Chul Han Song, Hyojun Lee, Ross Beardsley, Jinhyeok Yu, Greg Yarwood, Bonyoung Koo, Jasper Madalipay, Jung-Hun Woo, and Seogju Cho
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12575–12593, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12575-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12575-2024, 2024
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We incorporated each HONO process into the current CMAQ modeling framework to enhance the accuracy of HONO mixing ratio predictions. These results expand our understanding of HONO photochemistry and identify crucial sources of HONO that impact the total HONO budget in Seoul, South Korea. Through this investigation, we contribute to resolving discrepancies in understanding chemical transport models, with implications for better air quality management and environmental protection in the region.
Flossie Brown, Gerd Folberth, Stephen Sitch, Paulo Artaxo, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Alexander W. Cheesman, Matteo Detto, Ninong Komala, Luciana Rizzo, Nestor Rojas, Ines dos Santos Vieira, Steven Turnock, Hans Verbeeck, and Alfonso Zambrano
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12537–12555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12537-2024, 2024
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Ozone is a pollutant that is detrimental to human and plant health. Ozone monitoring sites in the tropics are limited, so models are often used to understand ozone exposure. We use measurements from the tropics to evaluate ozone from the UK Earth system model, UKESM1. UKESM1 is able to capture the pattern of ozone in the tropics, except in southeast Asia, although it systematically overestimates it at all sites. This work highlights that UKESM1 can capture seasonal and hourly variability.
Namrata Shanmukh Panji, Deborah F. McGlynn, Laura E. R. Barry, Todd M. Scanlon, Manuel T. Lerdau, Sally E. Pusede, and Gabriel Isaacman-VanWertz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12495–12507, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12495-2024, 2024
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Climate change will bring about changes in parameters that are currently used in global-scale models to calculate biogenic emissions. This study seeks to understand the factors driving these models by comparing long-term datasets of biogenic compounds to modeled emissions. We note that the light-dependent fractions currently used in models do not accurately represent regional observations. We provide evidence for the time-dependent variation in this parameter for future modifications to models.
Martin Vojta, Andreas Plach, Saurabh Annadate, Sunyoung Park, Gawon Lee, Pallav Purohit, Florian Lindl, Xin Lan, Jens Mühle, Rona L. Thompson, and Andreas Stohl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12465–12493, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12465-2024, 2024
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We constrain the global emissions of the very potent greenhouse gas sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) between 2005 and 2021. We show that SF6 emissions are decreasing in the USA and in the EU, while they are substantially growing in China, leading overall to an increasing global emission trend. The national reports for the USA, EU, and China all underestimated their SF6 emissions. However, stringent mitigation measures can successfully reduce SF6 emissions, as can be seen in the EU emission trend.
Dominika Pasik, Thomas Golin Almeida, Emelda Ahongshangbam, Siddharth Iyer, and Nanna Myllys
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3464, 2024
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We used quantum chemistry methods to investigate the oxidation mechanisms of acyl peroxy radicals (APRs) with various monoterpenes. Our findings reveal unique oxidation pathways for different monoterpenes, leading to either chain-terminating products or highly reactive intermediates that can contribute to particle formation in the atmosphere. This research highlights APRs as potentially significant but underexplored atmospheric oxidants, which may influence future approaches to modeling climate.
Yasin Elshorbany, Jerald R. Ziemke, Sarah Strode, Hervé Petetin, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Isabelle De Smedt, Kenneth Pickering, Rodrigo J. Seguel, Helen Worden, Tamara Emmerichs, Domenico Taraborrelli, Maria Cazorla, Suvarna Fadnavis, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Néstor Y. Rojas, Thiago Nogueira, Thérèse Salameh, and Min Huang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12225–12257, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12225-2024, 2024
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We investigated tropospheric ozone spatial variability and trends from 2005 to 2019 and related those to ozone precursors on global and regional scales. We also investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of the ozone formation regime in relation to ozone chemical sources and sinks. Our analysis is based on remote sensing products of the tropospheric column of ozone and its precursors, nitrogen dioxide, formaldehyde, and total column CO, as well as ozonesonde data and model simulations.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Marit Sandstad, Srinath Krishnan, Gunnar Myhre, and Maria Sand
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3079, 2024
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Hydrogen leakages can alter the amount of climate gases in the atmosphere and hence have a climate impact. In this study we investigate, using an atmospheric chemistry model, how this indirect climate effect differs for different amounts of leakages, where the hydrogen leaks and if this effect changes in the future. The effect is largest for emissions far from areas where hydrogen is removed from the atmosphere by the soil, but these are not relevant locations for a future hydrogen economy.
Mariano Mertens, Sabine Brinkop, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Johannes Hendricks, Patrick Jöckel, Anna Lanteri, Sigrun Matthes, Vanessa S. Rieger, Mattia Righi, and Robin N. Thor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12079–12106, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12079-2024, 2024
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We quantified the contributions of land transport, shipping, and aviation emissions to tropospheric ozone; its radiative forcing; and the reductions of the methane lifetime using chemistry-climate model simulations. The contributions were analysed for the conditions of 2015 and for three projections for the year 2050. The results highlight the challenges of mitigating ozone formed by emissions of the transport sector, caused by the non-linearitiy of the ozone chemistry and the long lifetime.
Jincheol Park, Yunsoo Choi, and Sagun Kayastha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3312, 2024
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We investigated NOx emissions’ contributions to nitrogen loadings across five regions of East Asia during the 2022 winter-spring transition through chemical transport modeling informed by satellite data. As seasons progress, local contributions within each region to its NOy budget decreased from 32 %–43 % to 23 %–30 %, while transboundary contributions increased from 16 %–33 % to 27 %–37 %, driven by a shift in synoptic settings that allowed pollutants to spread more broadly across the regions.
Lauri Franzon, Marie Camredon, Richard Valorso, Bernard Aumont, and Theo Kurtén
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11679–11699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11679-2024, 2024
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In this article we investigate the formation of large, sticky molecules from various organic compounds entering the atmosphere as primary emissions and the degree to which these processes may contribute to organic aerosol particle mass. More specifically, we qualitatively investigate a recently discovered chemical reaction channel for one of the most important short-lived radical compounds, peroxy radicals, and discover which of these reactions are most atmospherically important.
Siting Li, Yiming Liu, Yuqi Zhu, Yinbao Jin, Yingying Hong, Ao Shen, Yifei Xu, Haofan Wang, Haichao Wang, Xiao Lu, Shaojia Fan, and Qi Fan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11521–11544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11521-2024, 2024
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This study establishes an inventory of anthropogenic chlorine emissions in China in 2019 with expanded species (HCl, Cl-, Cl2, HOCl) and sources (41 specific sources). The inventory is validated by a modeling study against the observations. This study enhances the understanding of anthropogenic chlorine emissions in the atmosphere, identifies key sources, and provides scientific support for pollution control and climate change.
Willem E. van Caspel, Zbigniew Klimont, Chris Heyes, and Hilde Fagerli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11545–11563, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11545-2024, 2024
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Methane in the atmosphere contributes to the production of ozone gas – an air pollutant and greenhouse gas. Our results highlight that simultaneous reductions in methane emissions help avoid offsetting the air pollution benefits already achieved by the already-approved precursor emission reductions by 2050 in the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme region, while also playing an important role in bringing air pollution further down towards World Health Organization guideline limits.
Yujia Wang, Hongbin Wang, Bo Zhang, Peng Liu, Xinfeng Wang, Shuchun Si, Likun Xue, Qingzhu Zhang, and Qiao Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2791, 2024
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This study established a bottom-up approach that employs real-time traffic flows and interpolation to obtain a spatially continuous on-road vehicle emission mapping for the main urban area of Jinan. The diurnal variation, spatial distribution, and emission hotspots were analyzed with clustering and hotspot analysis, showing unique fine-scale variation characteristics of on-road vehicle emissions. Future scenario analysis demonstrates remarkable benefits of electrification on emission reduction.
Laura Stecher, Franziska Winterstein, Patrick Jöckel, Michael Ponater, Mariano Mertens, and Martin Dameris
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2938, 2024
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Methane, the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, is chemically decomposed in the atmosphere. The chemical sink of atmospheric methane is not constant, but depends on the temperature and on the abundance of its reaction partners. In this study, we use a global chemistry-climate model to assess the feedback of atmospheric methane induced by changes of the chemical sink in a warming climate, and its implications for the chemical composition and the surface air temperature change.
Tia R. Scarpelli, Paul I. Palmer, Mark Lunt, Ingrid Super, and Arjan Droste
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10773–10791, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10773-2024, 2024
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Under the Paris Agreement, countries must track their anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This study describes a method to determine self-consistent estimates for combustion emissions and natural fluxes of CO2 from atmospheric data. We report consistent estimates inferred using this approach from satellite data and ground-based data over Europe, suggesting that satellite data can be used to determine national anthropogenic CO2 emissions for countries where ground-based CO2 data are absent.
Yufen Wang, Ke Li, Xi Chen, Zhenjiang Yang, Minglong Tang, Pascoal M. D. Campos, Yang Yang, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2576, 2024
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The impact of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions on high tropospheric ozone was not well studied in Southern Africa. We combined the model simulation with recent observations at the surface and from space to quantify tropospheric ozone and its main drivers in Southern Africa. Our work focuses on the impact of emissions from different sources at different spatial scales, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of air pollution drivers and their uncertainties in Southern Africa.
Yafang Guo, Mohammad Amin Mirrezaei, Armin Sorooshian, and Avelino F. Arellano
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2617, 2024
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We assess the contributions of fire and anthropogenic emissions to O3 levels in Phoenix Arizona during a period of intense heat and drought conditions. We find that fire exacerbates O3 pollution and that interactions between weather, climate, and air chemistry are important to consider. This has implications to activities related to formulating emission reduction strategies in areas that are currently under-studied yet becoming relevant due to reports of increasing global aridity.
Ryan J. Pound, Lucy V. Brown, Mat J. Evans, and Lucy J. Carpenter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9899–9921, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9899-2024, 2024
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Iodine-mediated loss of ozone to the ocean surface and the subsequent emission of iodine species has a large effect on the troposphere. Here we combine recent experimental insights to develop a box model of the process, which we then parameterize and incorporate into the GEOS-Chem transport model. We find that these new insights have a small impact on the total emission of iodine but significantly change its distribution.
Cited articles
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Duncan, B. N. and Logan, J. A.: Model analysis of the factors regulating the trends and variability of carbon monoxide between 1988 and 1997, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 7389–7403, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-7389-2008, 2008.
Duncan, B. N, Logan, J. A., Bey, I., Megretskaia, I. A., Yantosca, R. M., Novelli, P. C., Jones, N. B., and Rinsland, C. P.: Global budget of CO, 1988–1997: Source estimates and validation with a global model, J. Geophys. Res. 112, D22301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008459, 2007.
Emmerson, K. M. and Evans, M. J.: Comparison of tropospheric gas-phase chemistry schemes for use within global models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 1831–1845, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-1831-2009, 2009.
Emmons, L. K., Edwards, D. P., Deeter, M. N., Gille, J. C., Campos, T., Nédélec, P., Novelli, P., and Sachse, G.: Measurements of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) validation through 2006, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 1795–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-1795-2009, 2009.
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