Articles | Volume 16, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016
Research article
 | 
05 Aug 2016
Research article |  | 05 Aug 2016

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

Raquel A. Silva, J. Jason West, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, William J. Collins, Stig Dalsoren, Greg Faluvegi, Gerd Folberth, Larry W. Horowitz, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naik, Steven T. Rumbold, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, Daniel Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, Irene Cionni, Ruth M. Doherty, Veronika Eyring, Beatrice Josse, Ian A. MacKenzie, David Plummer, Mattia Righi, David S. Stevenson, Sarah Strode, Sophie Szopa, and Guang Zengast

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Cited articles

Amann, M., Klimont, Z., and Wagner, F.: Regional and Global Emissions of Air Pollutants: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 38, 31–55, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-052912-173303, 2013.
Anenberg, S. C., Horowitz, L. W., Tong, D. Q., and West, J. J.: An estimate of the global burden of anthropogenic ozone and fine particulate matter on premature human mortality using atmospheric modeling, Environ. Health Perspect., 118, 1189–1195, https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.0901220, 2010.
Anenberg, S. C., West, J. J., Yu, H., Chin, M., Schultz, M., Bergmann, D., Bey, I., Bian, H., Diehl, T., Fiore, A., Hess, P., Marmer, E., Montanaro, V., Park, R., Shindell, D., Takemura, T., and Dentener, F.: Impacts of intercontinental transport of anthropogenic fine particulate matter on human mortality, Air. Qual. Atmos. Health., 7, 369–379, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-014-0248-9, 2014.
Apte, J. S., Marshall, J. D., Cohen, A. J., and Brauer, M.: Addressing Global Mortality from Ambient PM2.5. Environ. Sci. Technol., 49, 8057–8066, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b01236, 2015.
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Short summary
Using ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models for the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, we quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution in 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to 2000 concentrations. We also estimate the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period.
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