Articles | Volume 16, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Aug 2016
Research article |
| 05 Aug 2016
The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble
Raquel A. Silva
Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina,
Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina,
Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
Jean-François Lamarque
NCAR Earth System Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Drew T. Shindell
Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North
Carolina, USA
William J. Collins
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Stig Dalsoren
CICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental
Research – Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Greg Faluvegi
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Earth Institute,
New York, New York, USA
Gerd Folberth
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Larry W. Horowitz
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Tatsuya Nagashima
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Vaishali Naik
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Steven T. Rumbold
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
now at: National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of
Reading, Reading, UK
Kengo Sudo
Earth and Environmental Science, Graduate School of Environmental
Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
Toshihiko Takemura
Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka,
Japan
Daniel Bergmann
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA
Philip Cameron-Smith
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA
Irene Cionni
Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l'Energia e lo Sviluppo
Economico Sostenibile (ENEA), Bologna, Italy
Ruth M. Doherty
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Veronika Eyring
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Beatrice Josse
GAME/CNRM, Meteo-France, CNRS – Centre National de Recherches
Meteorologiques, Toulouse, France
Ian A. MacKenzie
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
David Plummer
Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Environment
Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Mattia Righi
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
David S. Stevenson
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Sarah Strode
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, Maryland, USA
Sophie Szopa
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,
LSCE-CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Guang Zengast
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New
Zealand
now at: NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand
Data sets
Air pollutant concentrations Atmospheric Chemistry & Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/b46c58786d3e5a3f985043166aeb862d
IER model data Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) http://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/global-burden-disease-study-2010-gbd-2010-ambient-air-pollution-risk-model-1990-2010
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Short summary
Using ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models for the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, we quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution in 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to 2000 concentrations. We also estimate the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period.
Using ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models for...
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