Articles | Volume 25, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025
Research article
 | 
28 Jul 2025
Research article |  | 28 Jul 2025

Tropospheric ozone trends and attributions over East and Southeast Asia in 1995–2019: an integrated assessment using statistical methods, machine learning models, and multiple chemical transport models

Xiao Lu, Yiming Liu, Jiayin Su, Xiang Weng, Tabish Ansari, Yuqiang Zhang, Guowen He, Yuqi Zhu, Haolin Wang, Ganquan Zeng, Jingyu Li, Cheng He, Shuai Li, Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen, Tim Butler, Qi Fan, Shaojia Fan, Grant L. Forster, Meng Gao, Jianlin Hu, Yugo Kanaya, Mohd Talib Latif, Keding Lu, Philippe Nédélec, Peer Nowack, Bastien Sauvage, Xiaobin Xu, Lin Zhang, Ke Li, Ja-Ho Koo, and Tatsuya Nagashima

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Ahamad, F., Griffiths, P. T., Latif, M. T., Juneng, L., and Xiang, C. J.: Ozone Trends from Two Decades of Ground Level Observation in Malaysia, Atmosphere, 11, 755, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11070755, 2020. 
Akimoto, H., Mori, Y., Sasaki, K., Nakanishi, H., Ohizumi, T., and Itano, Y.: Analysis of monitoring data of ground-level ozone in Japan for long-term trend during 1990–2010: Causes of temporal and spatial variation, Atmos. Environ., 102, 302–310, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.12.001, 2015. 
Altman, N. and Krzywinski, M.: Ensemble methods: bagging and random forests, Nat. Methods, 14, 933–934, https://doi.org/10.1038/nmeth.4438, 2017. 
Archibald, A. T., Turnock, S. T., Griffiths, P. T., Cox, T., Derwent, R. G., Knote, C., and Shin, M.: On the changes in surface ozone over the twenty-first century: sensitivity to changes in surface temperature and chemical mechanisms, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A Math., 378, 20190329, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0329, 2020. 
Bates, K. H., Jacob, D. J., Li, K., Ivatt, P. D., Evans, M. J., Yan, Y., and Lin, J.: Development and evaluation of a new compact mechanism for aromatic oxidation in atmospheric models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18351–18374, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18351-2021, 2021. 
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This study analyzes summertime ozone trends in East and Southeast Asia derived from a comprehensive observational database spanning from 1995 to 2019, incorporating aircraft observations, ozonesonde data, and measurements from 2500 surface sites. Multiple models are applied to attribute to changes in anthropogenic emissions and climate. The results highlight that increases in anthropogenic emissions are the primary driver of ozone increases both in the free troposphere and at the surface.
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