Articles | Volume 25, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Jul 2025
Research article |
| 28 Jul 2025
| 28 Jul 2025
Tropospheric ozone trends and attributions over East and Southeast Asia in 1995–2019: an integrated assessment using statistical methods, machine learning models, and multiple chemical transport models
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Zhuhai, 519082, China
Yiming Liu
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Zhuhai, 519082, China
Jiayin Su
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Zhuhai, 519082, China
Xiang Weng
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Zhuhai, 519082, China
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR47 TJ, UK
Tabish Ansari
Research Institute for Sustainability – Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (RIFS), Potsdam, Germany
Yuqiang Zhang
Environment Research Institute, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, China
Guowen He
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Zhuhai, 519082, China
Yuqi Zhu
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Zhuhai, 519082, China
Haolin Wang
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Zhuhai, 519082, China
Ganquan Zeng
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Zhuhai, 519082, China
Jingyu Li
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Zhuhai, 519082, China
Cheng He
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Zhuhai, 519082, China
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Zhuhai, 519082, China
Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen
Department of Environmental Science, School of Energy and Environment, University of Phayao, Phayao, Thailand
Tim Butler
Research Institute for Sustainability – Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (RIFS), Potsdam, Germany
Qi Fan
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Zhuhai, 519082, China
Shaojia Fan
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Zhuhai, 519082, China
Grant L. Forster
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR47 TJ, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong SAR, China
Jianlin Hu
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
Yugo Kanaya
Earth Surface System Research Center, Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Kanagawa, 2360001, Japan
Mohd Talib Latif
Department of Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
Keding Lu
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
Philippe Nédélec
Laboratoire d'Aérologie, CNRS and Université Toulouse III, Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France
Peer Nowack
Institute of Theoretical Informatics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-ASF), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany
Bastien Sauvage
Laboratoire d'Aérologie, CNRS and Université Toulouse III, Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France
Xiaobin Xu
Institute of Atmospheric Composition, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Lin Zhang
Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Sciences, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
Ja-Ho Koo
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, South Korea
Tatsuya Nagashima
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Explaining trends and changing seasonal cycles of surface ozone in North America and Europe over the 2000–2018 period: a global modelling study with NOx and VOC tagging T. Ansari et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16833-2025
- Co-evolving emission controls and climate impacts: A multi-decadal machine learning decomposition of urban O3 and NO2 air quality measurements M. Brancher https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121655
- Anthropogenic and natural drivers of the Earth's radiation budget changes in South and Southeast Asia (2001–2022) C. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.009
- Surface and tropospheric ozone over East Asia and Southeast Asia from observations: distributions, trends, and variability K. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11575-2025
- A physics-informed adaptive forgetting mechanism with state-of-charge variation for low-temperature battery model identification Z. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10800-026-02472-9
- Decadal changes in atmospheric ammonia and dry deposition across China inferred from space-ground measurements and model simulations F. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17907-2025
- Distinct sub-period trends in tropospheric ozone column over the East Asian outflow region during 1990-2019 Z. Zang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01406-8
- Summer Ozone Pollution Episodes in South China and Transport Impacts from Southeast Asia B. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c10258
- Development of the global chemistry-climate coupled model BCC-GEOS-Chem v2.0: improved atmospheric chemistry performance and new capability of chemistry-climate interactions R. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2111-2026
- Deciphering the impacts of meteorology on surface ozone variability in eastern China using explainable machine learning models X. Ye et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6377-2026
- Divers of ozone pollution across the Pearl River Delta during spring 2022: insights from observation and WRF-CMAQ J. Shen et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44273-026-00093-4
- Using geostationary-satellite-derived sub-daily fire radiative power variability versus prescribed diurnal cycles to assess the impact of African fires on tropospheric ozone H. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17501-2025
- Global warming makes nitrogen oxide abatement key to ozone pollution mitigation W. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aea4124
- Radical chemistry and ozone responses under different chemical mechanisms in WRF-Chem: Implications for emission control strategies K. Kim et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122198
- Divergent Ozone Predictions in China Under Carbon Neutrality: Why Chemical Mechanisms Disagree X. Weng et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c10697
- Total ozone column retrieval from EMI-II: validation and regional analysis over the Yangtze River Basin H. Cheng et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2026.2695947
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Explaining trends and changing seasonal cycles of surface ozone in North America and Europe over the 2000–2018 period: a global modelling study with NOx and VOC tagging T. Ansari et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16833-2025
- Co-evolving emission controls and climate impacts: A multi-decadal machine learning decomposition of urban O3 and NO2 air quality measurements M. Brancher https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121655
- Anthropogenic and natural drivers of the Earth's radiation budget changes in South and Southeast Asia (2001–2022) C. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.009
- Surface and tropospheric ozone over East Asia and Southeast Asia from observations: distributions, trends, and variability K. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11575-2025
- A physics-informed adaptive forgetting mechanism with state-of-charge variation for low-temperature battery model identification Z. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10800-026-02472-9
- Decadal changes in atmospheric ammonia and dry deposition across China inferred from space-ground measurements and model simulations F. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17907-2025
- Distinct sub-period trends in tropospheric ozone column over the East Asian outflow region during 1990-2019 Z. Zang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01406-8
- Summer Ozone Pollution Episodes in South China and Transport Impacts from Southeast Asia B. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c10258
- Development of the global chemistry-climate coupled model BCC-GEOS-Chem v2.0: improved atmospheric chemistry performance and new capability of chemistry-climate interactions R. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2111-2026
- Deciphering the impacts of meteorology on surface ozone variability in eastern China using explainable machine learning models X. Ye et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6377-2026
- Divers of ozone pollution across the Pearl River Delta during spring 2022: insights from observation and WRF-CMAQ J. Shen et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44273-026-00093-4
- Using geostationary-satellite-derived sub-daily fire radiative power variability versus prescribed diurnal cycles to assess the impact of African fires on tropospheric ozone H. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17501-2025
- Global warming makes nitrogen oxide abatement key to ozone pollution mitigation W. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aea4124
- Radical chemistry and ozone responses under different chemical mechanisms in WRF-Chem: Implications for emission control strategies K. Kim et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122198
- Divergent Ozone Predictions in China Under Carbon Neutrality: Why Chemical Mechanisms Disagree X. Weng et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c10697
- Total ozone column retrieval from EMI-II: validation and regional analysis over the Yangtze River Basin H. Cheng et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2026.2695947
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 20 Jul 2026
Short summary
This study analyzes summertime ozone trends in East and Southeast Asia derived from a comprehensive observational database spanning from 1995 to 2019, incorporating aircraft observations, ozonesonde data, and measurements from 2500 surface sites. Multiple models are applied to attribute to changes in anthropogenic emissions and climate. The results highlight that increases in anthropogenic emissions are the primary driver of ozone increases both in the free troposphere and at the surface.
This study analyzes summertime ozone trends in East and Southeast Asia derived from a...
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