Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7153–7166, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020

Special issue: StratoClim stratospheric and upper tropospheric processes...

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7153–7166, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020

Research article 19 Jun 2020

Research article | 19 Jun 2020

Modelling the potential impacts of the recent, unexpected increase in CFC-11 emissions on total column ozone recovery

James Keeble et al.

Related authors

Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 simulations
Paul T. Griffiths, Lee T. Murray, Guang Zeng, Youngsub Matthew Shin, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Ian E. Galbally, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Jane Liu, Omid Moeini, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, David Tarasick, Simone Tilmes, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Paul J. Young, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4187–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Assessment of pre-industrial to present-day anthropogenic climate forcing in UKESM1
Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson, Ron Kahana, James Keeble, Byeonghyeon Kim, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Mark Richardson, Eddy Robertson, Jeongbyn Seo, Sungbo Shim, João C. Teixeira, Steven T. Turnock, Jonny Williams, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Stephanie Woodward, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1211–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, 2021
Short summary
Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols – a multi-model comparison
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
Short summary
Polar stratospheric clouds initiated by mountain waves in a global chemistry–climate model: a missing piece in fully modelling polar stratospheric ozone depletion
Andrew Orr, J. Scott Hosking, Aymeric Delon, Lars Hoffmann, Reinhold Spang, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, James Keeble, Nathan Luke Abraham, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12483–12497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12483-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12483-2020, 2020
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
Ville Maliniemi, Hilde Nesse Tyssøy, Christine Smith-Johnsen, Pavle Arsenovic, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11041–11052, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021, 2021
Short summary
Processes influencing lower stratospheric water vapour in monsoon anticyclones: insights from Lagrangian modelling
Nuria Pilar Plaza, Aurélien Podglajen, Cristina Peña-Ortiz, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9585–9607, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9585-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9585-2021, 2021
Short summary
Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Slow feedbacks resulting from strongly enhanced atmospheric methane mixing ratios in a chemistry–climate model with mixed-layer ocean
Laura Stecher, Franziska Winterstein, Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, Michael Ponater, and Markus Kunze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 731–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-731-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-731-2021, 2021
Short summary
An Arctic Ozone Hole in 2020 If Not For the Montreal Protocol
Catherine Wilka, Susan Solomon, Doug Kinnison, and David Tarasick
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1297,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1297, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
Short summary

Cited articles

archer: UK Research Data Facility (UK-RDF) Guide, available at: http://www.archer.ac.uk/documentation/rdf-guide, last access: 8 June 2020. 
Ashfold, M. J., Pyle, J. A., Robinson, A. D., Meneguz, E., Nadzir, M. S. M., Phang, S. M., Samah, A. A., Ong, S., Ung, H. E., Peng, L. K., Yong, S. E., and Harris, N. R. P.: Rapid transport of East Asian pollution to the deep tropics, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3565–3573, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3565-2015, 2015. 
Bednarz, E. M., Maycock, A. C., Abraham, N. L., Braesicke, P., Dessens, O., and Pyle, J. A.: Future Arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12159–12176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016, 2016. 
Bodeker, G. E., Shiona, H., and Eskes, H.: Indicators of Antarctic ozone depletion, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-2603-2005, 2005. 
Download
Short summary
The Montreal Protocol was agreed in 1987 to limit and then stop the production of man-made CFCs, which destroy stratospheric ozone. As a result, the atmospheric abundances of CFCs are now declining in the atmosphere. However, the atmospheric abundance of CFC-11 is not declining as expected under complete compliance with the Montreal Protocol. Using the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model, we explore the impact of future unregulated production of CFC-11 on ozone recovery.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint