Articles | Volume 21, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021
Research article
 | 
29 Sep 2021
Research article |  | 29 Sep 2021

Evaluation and intercomparison of wildfire smoke forecasts from multiple modeling systems for the 2019 Williams Flats fire

Xinxin Ye, Pargoal Arab, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James, Georg A. Grell, Bradley Pierce, Aditya Kumar, Paul Makar, Jack Chen, Didier Davignon, Greg R. Carmichael, Gonzalo Ferrada, Jeff McQueen, Jianping Huang, Rajesh Kumar, Louisa Emmons, Farren L. Herron-Thorpe, Mark Parrington, Richard Engelen, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Arlindo da Silva, Amber Soja, Emily Gargulinski, Elizabeth Wiggins, Johnathan W. Hair, Marta Fenn, Taylor Shingler, Shobha Kondragunta, Alexei Lyapustin, Yujie Wang, Brent Holben, David M. Giles, and Pablo E. Saide

Related authors

Impact of high-resolution soil erodibility datasets on dust simulations in WRF-Chem with the GOCART scheme
Leandro C. Segado-Moreno, Juan Pedro Montávez, Ginés Garnés-Morales, Eloisa Raluy-López, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, and Rajesh Kumar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2127,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2127, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Development of the CCPP-Based GEFS-Aerosols Component in the Unified Forecast System for Subseasonal Prediction (UFS-Chem v1.0)
Li Zhang, Haiqin Li, Georg A. Grell, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Gonzalo A. Ferrada, Benjamin W. Green, Shan Sun, Ligia Bernardet, Anders Jensen, Barry Baker, Li Pan, Jian He, Jordan Schnell, Ravan Ahmadov, Samuel Trahan, Dustin Swales, Anning Cheng, Fanglin Yang, Rebecca H. Schwantes, Brian C. McDonald, Dominikus Heinzeller, and Shobha Kondragunta
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1807,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1807, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Implementation and Evaluation of an Observation-Constrained Secondary Organic Aerosol Parameterization in MOZART–GOCART Chemistry in WRF-Chem
Rajmal Jat, Akash Sagar Vispute, Sachin D. Ghude, Rajesh Kumar, Vinayak Sinha, Baerbel Sinha, Gaurav Govardhan, Zhining Tao, Prafull P. Yadav, Sandeep Wagh, Sreyashi Debnath, Aditi Rathore, and Madhavan Rajeevan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1302,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1302, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Nineteen months of daily weather logging on the U.S. east coast: The WFIP3 event log
Nicola Bodini, Joseph Olson, Brian Gaudet, Giacomo Valerio Iungo, Mojtaba Shams Solari, Sayahnya Roy, Julie K. Lundquist, Nathan Agarwal, Timothy A. Myers, Bianca Adler, Jeffrey D. Mirocha, Eric James, Laura Bianco, James M. Wilczak, and David D. Turner
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-17,https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-17, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for WES
Short summary
NOx Emissions Constraints from GEMS NO2 Retrievals: Inversion Methodology and Air Quality Model Evaluation in Bangkok using ASIA-AQ Multi-Platform Observations
Julianna Antonia Christopoulos, Pablo Saide, Manas Mohanty, Nattamon Maneenoi, Jhoon Kim, Laura Judd, Katherine Travis, Savitri Garivait, Agapol Junpen, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Jinkyul Choi, Takashi Sekiya, David Peterson, Theodore McHardy, Nicholas Gapp, Jason St. Clair, Erin Delaria, Glenn Wolfe, Abby Sebol, Alessandro Franchin, Changmin Cho, Morgan Silverman, and James H. Crawford
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-472,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-472, 2026
Short summary

Cited articles

Abatzoglou, J. T. and Williams, A. P.: Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 11770–11775, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113, 2016. 
Ahmadov, R., Grell, G., James, E., Csiszar, I., Tsidulko, M., Pierce, B., McKeen, S., Benjamin, S., Alexander, C., Pereira, G., Freitas, S., and Goldberg, M.: Using VIIRS fire radiative power data to simulate biomass burning emissions, plume rise and smoke transport in a real-time air quality modeling system, in: 2017 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), 2806–2808, 2017. 
Ahmadov, R., James, E., Grell, G. A., Alexander, C., Olson, J., Benjamin, S., McKeen, S. A., Bela, M., Hamilton, J., and Wong, K. Y.: High-resolution (3 km) forecasting of smoke and visibility for the US by ingesting the VIIRS and MODIS FRP data into HRRR-Smoke during August 2018, in: AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, A51F-08, 2019. 
Albayrak, A., Wei, J., Petrenko, M., Lynnes, C., and Levy, R. C.: Global bias adjustment for MODIS aerosol optical thickness using neural network, J. Appl. Remote Sens., 7, 073514, https://doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.7.073514, 2013. 
Anderson, K., Pankratz, A., and Mooney, C.: A thermodynamic approach to estimating smoke plume heights, in: Proceedings of Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, Palms Springs, CA, American Meteorological Society, 17–21, 2011. 
Download
Short summary
Wildfire smoke has crucial impacts on air quality, while uncertainties in the numerical forecasts remain significant. We present an evaluation of 12 real-time forecasting systems. Comparison of predicted smoke emissions suggests a large spread in magnitudes, with temporal patterns deviating from satellite detections. The performance for AOD and surface PM2.5 and their discrepancies highlighted the role of accurately represented spatiotemporal emission profiles in improving smoke forecasts.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint