Articles | Volume 21, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021
Research article
 | 
29 Sep 2021
Research article |  | 29 Sep 2021

Evaluation and intercomparison of wildfire smoke forecasts from multiple modeling systems for the 2019 Williams Flats fire

Xinxin Ye, Pargoal Arab, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James, Georg A. Grell, Bradley Pierce, Aditya Kumar, Paul Makar, Jack Chen, Didier Davignon, Greg R. Carmichael, Gonzalo Ferrada, Jeff McQueen, Jianping Huang, Rajesh Kumar, Louisa Emmons, Farren L. Herron-Thorpe, Mark Parrington, Richard Engelen, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Arlindo da Silva, Amber Soja, Emily Gargulinski, Elizabeth Wiggins, Johnathan W. Hair, Marta Fenn, Taylor Shingler, Shobha Kondragunta, Alexei Lyapustin, Yujie Wang, Brent Holben, David M. Giles, and Pablo E. Saide

Related authors

Towards a parametric Kalman filter for operational wildfire plume assimilation: Formulation of the forecast step
Annika Vogel, Richard Ménard, James Abu, and Jack Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6386,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6386, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).
Short summary
Alkaline dust deposition to foliage surfaces likely enhances the dry deposition velocity of SO2: An investigation in the Alberta Oil-Sands Region using the GEM-MACH air-quality model
Stefan Miller, Paul A. Makar, Kenjiro Toyota, Colin Lee, Verica Savic-Jovcic, Sepehr Fathi, Mathab Majdzadeh, and Katherine Hayden
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6392,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6392, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Operational chemical weather forecasting with the ECCC online Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System version 023 (RAQDPS023) – Part 2: Multi-year prospective and retrospective performance evaluation
Michael D. Moran, Alexandru Lupu, Verica Savic-Jovcic, Junhua Zhang, Qiong Zheng, Elisa I. Boutzis, Rabab Mashayekhi, Craig A. Stroud, Sylvain Ménard, Jack Chen, Konstantinos Menelaou, Rodrigo Munoz-Alpizar, Dragana Kornic, and Patrick M. Manseau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4324,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4324, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Particulate matter concentrations derived from airborne high spectral resolution lidar measurements using machine learning regression
Richard Ferrare, Johnathan Hair, Taylor Shingler, Chris Hostetler, Amin Nehrir, Marta Fenn, Amy Jo Scarino, Sharon Burton, Marian Clayton, James Collins, Laura Judd, James Crawford, Katherine Travis, Travis Toth, Pablo Saide, Jose Luis Jimenez, Pedro Campuzano-Jost, Guy Symonds, Richard Moore, Luke Ziemba, Michael Shook, Glenn Diskin, Joshua P. DiGangi, Ryan Bennett, Chia-Hsiang Ho, Lim-Seok Chang, Adisak Aiampisanuvong, and Ittipol Pawarmart
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 7735–7766, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-7735-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-7735-2025, 2025
Short summary
Enhancing volcanic eruption simulations with the WRF-Chem v4.8
Alexander Ukhov, Georgiy Stenchikov, Jordan Schnell, Ravan Ahmadov, Umberto Rizza, Georg Grell, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9805–9825, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9805-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9805-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Abatzoglou, J. T. and Williams, A. P.: Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 11770–11775, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113, 2016. 
Ahmadov, R., Grell, G., James, E., Csiszar, I., Tsidulko, M., Pierce, B., McKeen, S., Benjamin, S., Alexander, C., Pereira, G., Freitas, S., and Goldberg, M.: Using VIIRS fire radiative power data to simulate biomass burning emissions, plume rise and smoke transport in a real-time air quality modeling system, in: 2017 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), 2806–2808, 2017. 
Ahmadov, R., James, E., Grell, G. A., Alexander, C., Olson, J., Benjamin, S., McKeen, S. A., Bela, M., Hamilton, J., and Wong, K. Y.: High-resolution (3 km) forecasting of smoke and visibility for the US by ingesting the VIIRS and MODIS FRP data into HRRR-Smoke during August 2018, in: AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, A51F-08, 2019. 
Albayrak, A., Wei, J., Petrenko, M., Lynnes, C., and Levy, R. C.: Global bias adjustment for MODIS aerosol optical thickness using neural network, J. Appl. Remote Sens., 7, 073514, https://doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.7.073514, 2013. 
Anderson, K., Pankratz, A., and Mooney, C.: A thermodynamic approach to estimating smoke plume heights, in: Proceedings of Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, Palms Springs, CA, American Meteorological Society, 17–21, 2011. 
Download
Short summary
Wildfire smoke has crucial impacts on air quality, while uncertainties in the numerical forecasts remain significant. We present an evaluation of 12 real-time forecasting systems. Comparison of predicted smoke emissions suggests a large spread in magnitudes, with temporal patterns deviating from satellite detections. The performance for AOD and surface PM2.5 and their discrepancies highlighted the role of accurately represented spatiotemporal emission profiles in improving smoke forecasts.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint