Articles | Volume 21, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Sep 2021
Research article |
| 29 Sep 2021
| 29 Sep 2021
Evaluation and intercomparison of wildfire smoke forecasts from multiple modeling systems for the 2019 Williams Flats fire
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California,
Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Pargoal Arab
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California,
Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Ravan Ahmadov
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, CU Boulder,
Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Eric James
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, CU Boulder,
Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Georg A. Grell
NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Bradley Pierce
University of Wisconsin – Madison Space Science and Engineering Center,
Madison, WI, USA
Aditya Kumar
University of Wisconsin – Madison Space Science and Engineering Center,
Madison, WI, USA
Paul Makar
Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Downsview,
Ontario, Canada
Jack Chen
Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Downsview,
Ontario, Canada
Didier Davignon
Canadian Meteorological Centre Operations, Environment and Climate Change
Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada
Greg R. Carmichael
College of Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA
Gonzalo Ferrada
College of Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA
Jeff McQueen
NOAA/NWS National Centers for Environment Prediction, Boulder, CO, USA
Jianping Huang
NOAA/NWS National Centers for Environment Prediction, Boulder, CO, USA
Rajesh Kumar
Research Application Laboratory (RAL), National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
Louisa Emmons
Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling (ACOM) Laboratory, NCAR,
Boulder, CO, USA
Farren L. Herron-Thorpe
Washington State Department of Ecology, Lacey, Washington, USA
Mark Parrington
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK
Richard Engelen
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK
Vincent-Henri Peuch
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK
Arlindo da Silva
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Amber Soja
National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA, USA
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Emily Gargulinski
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Elizabeth Wiggins
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Johnathan W. Hair
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Marta Fenn
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Hampton, VA, USA
Taylor Shingler
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Shobha Kondragunta
Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA
Alexei Lyapustin
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Yujie Wang
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Brent Holben
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
David M. Giles
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California,
Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of
California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
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Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
Short summary
Wildfire smoke has crucial impacts on air quality, while uncertainties in the numerical forecasts remain significant. We present an evaluation of 12 real-time forecasting systems. Comparison of predicted smoke emissions suggests a large spread in magnitudes, with temporal patterns deviating from satellite detections. The performance for AOD and surface PM2.5 and their discrepancies highlighted the role of accurately represented spatiotemporal emission profiles in improving smoke forecasts.
Wildfire smoke has crucial impacts on air quality, while uncertainties in the numerical...
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