Articles | Volume 21, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Sep 2021
Research article |
| 29 Sep 2021
| 29 Sep 2021
Evaluation and intercomparison of wildfire smoke forecasts from multiple modeling systems for the 2019 Williams Flats fire
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California,
Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Pargoal Arab
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California,
Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Ravan Ahmadov
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, CU Boulder,
Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Eric James
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, CU Boulder,
Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Georg A. Grell
NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Bradley Pierce
University of Wisconsin – Madison Space Science and Engineering Center,
Madison, WI, USA
Aditya Kumar
University of Wisconsin – Madison Space Science and Engineering Center,
Madison, WI, USA
Paul Makar
Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Downsview,
Ontario, Canada
Jack Chen
Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Downsview,
Ontario, Canada
Didier Davignon
Canadian Meteorological Centre Operations, Environment and Climate Change
Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada
Greg R. Carmichael
College of Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA
Gonzalo Ferrada
College of Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA
Jeff McQueen
NOAA/NWS National Centers for Environment Prediction, Boulder, CO, USA
Jianping Huang
NOAA/NWS National Centers for Environment Prediction, Boulder, CO, USA
Rajesh Kumar
Research Application Laboratory (RAL), National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
Louisa Emmons
Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling (ACOM) Laboratory, NCAR,
Boulder, CO, USA
Farren L. Herron-Thorpe
Washington State Department of Ecology, Lacey, Washington, USA
Mark Parrington
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK
Richard Engelen
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK
Vincent-Henri Peuch
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK
Arlindo da Silva
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Amber Soja
National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA, USA
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Emily Gargulinski
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Elizabeth Wiggins
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Johnathan W. Hair
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Marta Fenn
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Hampton, VA, USA
Taylor Shingler
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Shobha Kondragunta
Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA
Alexei Lyapustin
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Yujie Wang
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Brent Holben
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
David M. Giles
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California,
Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of
California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
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33 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Heat flux assumptions contribute to overestimation of wildfire smoke injection into the free troposphere L. Thapa et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00563-x
- Health Effects of Wildfire Smoke Exposure C. Gould et al. 10.1146/annurev-med-052422-020909
- Impact of Biomass Burning Organic Aerosol Volatility on Smoke Concentrations Downwind of Fires D. Pagonis et al. 10.1021/acs.est.3c05017
- Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX‐AQ) C. Warneke et al. 10.1029/2022JD037758
- Evaluation of Model-Based PM2.5 Estimates for Exposure Assessment during Wildfire Smoke Episodes in the Western U.S. E. Considine et al. 10.1021/acs.est.2c06288
- Estimating Fire Radiative Power Using Weather Radar Products for Wildfires P. Saide et al. 10.1029/2023GL104824
- Hourly biomass burning emissions product from blended geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites for air quality forecasting applications F. Li et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113237
- Biomass-burning smoke's properties and its interactions with marine stratocumulus clouds in WRF-CAM5 and southeastern Atlantic field campaigns C. Howes et al. 10.5194/acp-23-13911-2023
- Impacts of estimated plume rise on PM2.5 exceedance prediction during extreme wildfire events: a comparison of three schemes (Briggs, Freitas, and Sofiev) Y. Li et al. 10.5194/acp-23-3083-2023
- Population co-exposure to extreme heat and wildfire smoke pollution in California during 2020 N. Rosenthal et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ac860e
- Sensitivity of Burned Area and Fire Radiative Power Predictions to Containment Efforts, Fuel Density, and Fuel Moisture Using WRF‐Fire F. Turney et al. 10.1029/2023JD038873
- Simulating wildfire emissions and plume rise using geostationary satellite fire radiative power measurements: a case study of the 2019 Williams Flats fire A. Kumar et al. 10.5194/acp-22-10195-2022
- Introducing the VIIRS-based Fire Emission Inventory version 0 (VFEIv0) G. Ferrada et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8085-2022
- Wildfire Smoke Observations in the Western United States from the Airborne Wyoming Cloud Lidar during the BB-FLUX Project. Part II: Vertical Structure and Plume Injection Height M. Deng et al. 10.1175/JTECH-D-21-0093.1
- Observations and Impacts of Long‐Range Transported Wildfire Smoke on Air Quality Across New York State During July 2021 B. Shrestha et al. 10.1029/2022GL100216
- Downwind Ozone Changes of the 2019 Williams Flats Wildfire: Insights From WRF‐Chem/DART Assimilation of OMI NO2, HCHO, and MODIS AOD Retrievals A. Pouyaei et al. 10.1029/2022JD038019
- Climate adjusted projections of the distribution and frequency of poor air quality days for the contiguous United States B. Wilson et al. 10.3389/feart.2024.1320170
- Characterizing the Role of Moisture and Smoke on the 2021 Santa Coloma de Queralt Pyroconvective Event Using WRF‐Fire M. Eghdami et al. 10.1029/2022MS003288
- Daily Local-Level Estimates of Ambient Wildfire Smoke PM2.5 for the Contiguous US M. Childs et al. 10.1021/acs.est.2c02934
- Development and Evaluation of a North America Ensemble Wildfire Air Quality Forecast: Initial Application to the 2020 Western United States “Gigafire” P. Makkaroon et al. 10.1029/2022JD037298
- Regional evaluation of the performance of the global CAMS chemical modeling system over the United States (IFS cycle 47r1) J. Williams et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-4657-2022
- Airborne Emission Rate Measurements Validate Remote Sensing Observations and Emission Inventories of Western U.S. Wildfires C. Stockwell et al. 10.1021/acs.est.1c07121
- Summary of PM2.5 measurement artifacts associated with the Teledyne T640 PM Mass Monitor under controlled chamber experimental conditions using polydisperse ammonium sulfate aerosols and biomass smoke R. Long et al. 10.1080/10962247.2023.2171156
- Enhancing Air Quality Forecasts Across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) During Wildfires Using Analog-Based Post-Processing Methods M. Golbazi et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.120165
- Understanding the Evolution of Smoke Mass Extinction Efficiency Using Field Campaign Measurements P. Saide et al. 10.1029/2022GL099175
- Assessing Vertical Allocation of Wildfire Smoke Emissions Using Observational Constraints From Airborne Lidar in the Western U.S. X. Ye et al. 10.1029/2022JD036808
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Latest update: 17 Apr 2024
Short summary
Wildfire smoke has crucial impacts on air quality, while uncertainties in the numerical forecasts remain significant. We present an evaluation of 12 real-time forecasting systems. Comparison of predicted smoke emissions suggests a large spread in magnitudes, with temporal patterns deviating from satellite detections. The performance for AOD and surface PM2.5 and their discrepancies highlighted the role of accurately represented spatiotemporal emission profiles in improving smoke forecasts.
Wildfire smoke has crucial impacts on air quality, while uncertainties in the numerical...
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