Articles | Volume 22, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022
Research article
 | 
21 Sep 2022
Research article |  | 21 Sep 2022

Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing

Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz

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Cited articles

Aas, W., Mortier, A., Bowersox, V., Cherian, R., Faluvegi, G., Fagerli, H., Hand, J., Klimont, Z., Galy-Lacaux, C., Lehmann, C. M. B., Lund Myhre, C., Myhre, G., Olivié, D., Sato, K., Quaas, J., Rao, P. S. P., Schulz, M., Shindell, D., Skeie, R. B., Stein, A., Takemura, T., Tsyro, S., Vet, R., and Xu, X.: Global and regional trends of atmospheric sulfur, Sci. Rep.-UK, 9, 953, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-37304-0, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Albright, A. L., Proistosescu, C., and Huybers, P.: Origins of a Relatively Tight Lower Bound on Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Forcing from Bayesian Analysis of Historical Observations, J. Climate, 34, 8777–8792, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0167.1, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Allen, M., Peters, G., Shine, K., Azar, C., Balcombe, P., Boucher, O., Cain, M., Ciais, P., Collins, W., Forster, P. M., Frame, D. J., Friedlingstein, P., Fyson, C., Gasser, T., Hare, B., Jenkins, S., Hamburg, S. P., Johansson, D. J. A., Lynch, J., Macey, A., Morfeldt, J., Nauels, A., Ocko, I., Oppenheimer, M., Pacala, S. W., Pierrehumbert, R., Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Schleussner, C. F., Shindell, D., Skeie, R. B., Smith, S. M., and Tanaka, K.: Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 5, 5, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00226-2, 2022. a
Allison, L. C., Palmer, M. D., Allan, R. P., Hermanson, L., Liu, C., and Smith, D. M.: Observations of planetary heating since the 1980s from multiple independent datasets, Environ. Res. Comm., 2, 101001, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/abbb39, 2020. a
Andela, N., Morton, D. C., Giglio, L., Chen, Y., van der Werf, G. R., Kasibhatla, P. S., DeFries, R. S., Collatz, G. J., Hantson, S., Kloster, S., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Lasslop, G., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R., Yue, C., and Randerson, J. T.: A human-driven decline in global burned area, Science, 356, 1356–1362, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4108, 2017. a
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Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
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