Articles | Volume 22, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing
Johannes Quaas
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Meteorology, Universität Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
Hailing Jia
Institute for Meteorology, Universität Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
Chris Smith
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Anna Lea Albright
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
Wenche Aas
Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway
Nicolas Bellouin
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS, Paris, France
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Olivier Boucher
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS, Paris, France
Marie Doutriaux-Boucher
EUMETSAT, Darmstadt, Germany
Piers M. Forster
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Daniel Grosvenor
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Stuart Jenkins
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Zbigniew Klimont
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Norman G. Loeb
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, USA
Xiaoyan Ma
School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China
Vaishali Naik
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA
Fabien Paulot
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA
Philip Stier
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Martin Wild
Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Gunnar Myhre
CICERO, Oslo, Norway
Michael Schulz
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
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Cited
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- Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence P. Forster et al.
- Cloud condensation nuclei concentrations derived from the CAMS reanalysis K. Block et al.
- An improved meteorological variables-based aerosol optical depth estimation method by combining a physical mechanism model with a two-stage model F. Li et al.
- Understanding the trends in reflected solar radiation: a latitude- and month-based perspective R. Li et al.
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- The role of cloud glaciation in modulating aerosol susceptibility: insights from cold-air outbreak stratiform clouds over the Northwest Pacific C. Wu & J. Chen
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- Treatment of Key Aerosol and Cloud Processes in Earth System Models – Recommendations from the FORCeS Project I. Riipinen et al.
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- Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence P. Forster et al.
- Local hourly trends in near-surface and land surface temperatures S. Safieddine et al.
- Decomposing the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols based on CMIP6 Earth system models A. Kalisoras et al.
- Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models G. Myhre et al.
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- Time-dependent characteristics and parameter sensitivity of aerosol evolution under multiple dynamic processes M. Sun et al.
- Relative contributions of component-segregated aerosols to trends in aerosol optical depth over land (2007–2019): Insights from CAMS aerosol reanalysis H. Zhao et al.
- Robust acceleration of Earth system heating observed over the past six decades A. Minière et al.
- General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path J. Mülmenstädt et al.
- Water remains a blind spot in climate change policies H. Douville et al.
- Pristine oceans are a significant source of uncertainty in quantifying global cloud condensation nuclei G. Choudhury et al.
- Sensitivities of cloud radiative effects to large-scale meteorology and aerosols from global observations H. Andersen et al.
- The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) L. Wilcox et al.
- Quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on the record-high temperatures in 2023 and 2024 E. Farago et al.
- A cloud-by-cloud approach for studying aerosol–cloud interaction in satellite observations F. Alexandri et al.
- A seven-year-based characterization of aerosol light scattering properties at a rural central European site L. Suchánková et al.
- Geospatial association between aerosols and its short-lived precursors over South Asia H. Baranwal et al.
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- Faster than expected drying in western Europe: mechanisms, attribution and implications H. Douville
- Equilibrium climate sensitivity increases with aerosol concentration due to changes in precipitation efficiency G. Dagan
- Unravelling the neglected role of ultraviolet radiation on stomata: A meta‐analysis with implications for modelling ecosystem–climate interactions A. Ač et al.
- Climate warming could weaken aerosol-cloud interactions in subtropical marine stratocumulus H. Sun et al.
- Negligible contribution from aerosols to recent trends in Earth’s energy imbalance C. Park & B. Soden
- The world’s enclosed seas highlight the need for urgent emission reductions and societal adaptation M. Gröger et al.
- Traffic and PM10 in Veneto region (northeastern Italy): The lesson of the 2020 lockdown D. Pernigotti & M. Miglietta
96 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Recent cloud trends and extremes reaffirm established bounds on cloud feedback and aerosol-cloud interactions M. Zelinka et al.
- Aerosol demasking enhances climate warming over South Asia H. Nair et al.
- Increasing aerosol direct effect despite declining global emissions in MPI-ESM1.2 A. Hermant et al.
- Reducing Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty by Combining Models With Satellite and Within‐The‐Atmosphere Observations: A Three‐Way Street R. Kahn et al.
- Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence P. Forster et al.
- Cloud condensation nuclei concentrations derived from the CAMS reanalysis K. Block et al.
- An improved meteorological variables-based aerosol optical depth estimation method by combining a physical mechanism model with a two-stage model F. Li et al.
- Understanding the trends in reflected solar radiation: a latitude- and month-based perspective R. Li et al.
- A review of aerosol-cloud interactions: Mechanisms, climate effects, and observation methods T. Li et al.
- Hemispheric Contrast in Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: An Attempt for Detection and Attribution A. Henkes et al.
- Towards an improved understanding of the impact of clouds and precipitation on the representation of aerosols over the Boreal Forest in GCMs S. Talvinen et al.
- Unveiling global land fine- and coarse-mode aerosol dynamics from 2005 to 2020 using enhanced satellite-based monthly inversion data N. Luo et al.
- Challenges in global climate models to represent cloud response to aerosols: insights from volcanic eruptions Y. Wang et al.
- CERESMIP: a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance G. Schmidt et al.
- Aerosol characteristics in CMIP6 models' global simulations and their evaluation with the satellite measurements J. Bharath et al.
- Decomposing the global and regional aerosol effective radiative forcing associated with strong versus weak air quality policies by Mid-21st century R. Allen et al.
- An emerging Asian aerosol dipole pattern reshapes the Asian summer monsoon and exacerbates northern hemisphere warming B. Xiang et al.
- Assessing discrepancies in global aerosol trends from satellites, models and reanalyses R. Urraca et al.
- Global warming in the pipeline J. Hansen et al.
- AERO-MAP: a data compilation and modeling approach to understand spatial variability in fine- and coarse-mode aerosol composition N. Mahowald et al.
- Efficacy of climate forcings in transient CMIP6 simulations G. Myhre et al.
- Cloud feedback overestimated in coupled CESM2 simulations relative to AMIP simulations and satellite observations: importance of the pattern effect and implications for climate sensitivity S. Raghuraman & B. Medeiros
- Desert dust and photovoltaic energy forecasts: Lessons from 46 Saharan dust events in Hungary (Central Europe) G. Varga et al.
- The aerosol pathway is crucial for observationally constraining climate sensitivity and anthropogenic forcing R. Skeie et al.
- Ten new insights in climate science 2024 R. Schaeffer et al.
- Bessere Luftqualität erwärmt die Erde: Aerosole und Klima J. Quaas & M. Pöhlker
- Optical and physical characteristics of aerosols over Asia: AERONET, MERRA-2 and CAMS K. Ansari & S. Ramachandran
- Estimating vanishing allowable emissions for 1.5 °C B. Sanderson
- Anthropogenic amplification of precipitation variability over the past century W. Zhang et al.
- Accelerating the Renewable Energy Revolution to Get Back to the Holocene B. Abbott et al.
- Historical Changes and Reasons for Model Differences in Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing in CMIP6 S. Fiedler et al.
- Reconciling Earth’s growing energy imbalance with ocean warming R. Allan & C. Merchant
- Nonlinearity of the cloud response postpones climate penalty of mitigating air pollution in polluted regions H. Jia & J. Quaas
- Observational evidence of reduced Bay of Bengal lightning since 2020 linked to cloud responses to shipping emission regulations Q. Jin et al.
- Are Northern Hemisphere boreal forest fires more sensitive to future aerosol mitigation than to greenhouse gas–driven warming? R. Allen et al.
- Intermediate ions as indicator for local new particle formation S. Tuovinen et al.
- Impacts of reductions in non-methane short-lived climate forcers on future climate extremes and the resulting population exposure risks in eastern and southern Asia Y. Li et al.
- Abrupt trend change in global mean sea level and its components in the early 2010s L. Leclercq et al.
- Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth’s energy imbalance C. Merchant et al.
- Separation-dependent near-field effects in Mie scattering spectra of two optically trapped aerosol droplets C. Barker et al.
- Leveraging the satellite-based climate data record CLARA-A3 to understand the climatic trend regimes relevant for solar energy applications over Europe A. Devasthale et al.
- Effect of Atmospheric Sulphate Aerosol on Precipitation over Central India: A Long-Term Evaluation Through Remote Sensing A. Middey & A. Panjikkaran
- The global impact of the transport sectors on the atmospheric aerosol and the resulting climate effects under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) M. Righi et al.
- Temperature correction method and verification of the CW193 sun–sky photometer J. Zhu et al.
- The role of cloud glaciation in modulating aerosol susceptibility: insights from cold-air outbreak stratiform clouds over the Northwest Pacific C. Wu & J. Chen
- Observation-based estimate of Earth’s effective radiative forcing S. Van Loon et al.
- Satellite-based analysis of top of atmosphere shortwave radiative forcing trend induced by biomass burning aerosols over South-Eastern Atlantic C. Jouan & G. Myhre
- Influence of the solar penetration depth and heat-fluxes on the sea surface temperature using an ocean mixed layer model H. Gupta et al.
- Global 3-D distribution of aerosol composition by synergistic use of CALIOP and MODIS observations R. Kudo et al.
- Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth’s energy imbalance Ø. Hodnebrog et al.
- Marine cloud brightening mitigates the warming induced by the aerosol reductions toward carbon neutrality Y. Yu et al.
- A Review on the Effects of Thermal Inversions and Electromagnetic Fields on Cell Cultures and Wireless Communications C. López-Álvarez et al.
- Organics in the stratosphere: new insights from weather balloon flights conducted in France R. Benoit et al.
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- Asymmetries in the Southern Ocean contribution to global heat and carbon uptake R. Williams et al.
- Revealing dominant patterns of aerosol regimes in the lower troposphere and their evolution from preindustrial times to the future in global climate model simulations J. Li et al.
- Treatment of Key Aerosol and Cloud Processes in Earth System Models – Recommendations from the FORCeS Project I. Riipinen et al.
- Hydroclimate shapes photosynthetic sensitivity to cloud cover across global terrestrial ecosystems H. Luo et al.
- Anthropogenic Aerosols Delay the Emergence of GHGs‐Forced Wetting of South Asian Rainy Seasons Under a Fossil‐Fuel Intensive Pathway J. Singh et al.
- Human influence on recent trends in extratropical low-level wind speed H. Chou et al.
- Increased transparency in accounting conventions could benefit climate policy G. Wedderburn-Bisshop
- Substantial cooling effect from aerosol-induced increase in tropical marine cloud cover Y. Chen et al.
- Implications of differences between recent anthropogenic aerosol emission inventories for diagnosed AOD and radiative forcing from 1990 to 2019 M. Lund et al.
- Physical science research needed to evaluate the viability and risks of marine cloud brightening G. Feingold et al.
- Variability and Trends in Earth’s Radiative Energy Budget from Uvsq-Sat (2021–2024) and CERES Observations (2013–2024) M. Meftah et al.
- Beyond cloud cover: Low- and high-altitude clouds have distinct impacts on tree sap flow and transpiration S. Talvinen et al.
- Forest canopy interactions with aerosols: important considerations in approaching future impacts and climate management M. Durand et al.
- CMIP7 data request: Earth system priorities and opportunities M. McPartland et al.
- An updated VIIRS dark target aerosol product for continuity with MODIS: assessing regional aerosol trends V. Sawyer et al.
- Internal variability effect doped by climate change drove the 2023 marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic T. Guinaldo et al.
- Sorely reducing emissions of non-methane short-lived climate forcers will worsen compound flood-heatwave extremes in the Northern Hemisphere Y. Li et al.
- Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence P. Forster et al.
- Local hourly trends in near-surface and land surface temperatures S. Safieddine et al.
- Decomposing the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols based on CMIP6 Earth system models A. Kalisoras et al.
- Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models G. Myhre et al.
- Global assessment of aerosol radiative effects: New insights from observations, reanalysis, and climate models K. Ansari et al.
- Time-dependent characteristics and parameter sensitivity of aerosol evolution under multiple dynamic processes M. Sun et al.
- Relative contributions of component-segregated aerosols to trends in aerosol optical depth over land (2007–2019): Insights from CAMS aerosol reanalysis H. Zhao et al.
- Robust acceleration of Earth system heating observed over the past six decades A. Minière et al.
- General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path J. Mülmenstädt et al.
- Water remains a blind spot in climate change policies H. Douville et al.
- Pristine oceans are a significant source of uncertainty in quantifying global cloud condensation nuclei G. Choudhury et al.
- Sensitivities of cloud radiative effects to large-scale meteorology and aerosols from global observations H. Andersen et al.
- The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) L. Wilcox et al.
- Quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on the record-high temperatures in 2023 and 2024 E. Farago et al.
- A cloud-by-cloud approach for studying aerosol–cloud interaction in satellite observations F. Alexandri et al.
- A seven-year-based characterization of aerosol light scattering properties at a rural central European site L. Suchánková et al.
- Geospatial association between aerosols and its short-lived precursors over South Asia H. Baranwal et al.
- Emission Reductions Significantly Reduce the Hemispheric Contrast in Cloud Droplet Number Concentration in Recent Two Decades Y. Cao et al.
- Faster than expected drying in western Europe: mechanisms, attribution and implications H. Douville
- Equilibrium climate sensitivity increases with aerosol concentration due to changes in precipitation efficiency G. Dagan
- Unravelling the neglected role of ultraviolet radiation on stomata: A meta‐analysis with implications for modelling ecosystem–climate interactions A. Ač et al.
- Climate warming could weaken aerosol-cloud interactions in subtropical marine stratocumulus H. Sun et al.
- Negligible contribution from aerosols to recent trends in Earth’s energy imbalance C. Park & B. Soden
- The world’s enclosed seas highlight the need for urgent emission reductions and societal adaptation M. Gröger et al.
- Traffic and PM10 in Veneto region (northeastern Italy): The lesson of the 2020 lockdown D. Pernigotti & M. Miglietta
Saved (final revised paper)
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 20 May 2026
Short summary
Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed...
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