Articles | Volume 16, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016
Research article
 | 
21 Apr 2016
Research article |  | 21 Apr 2016

Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison

N. Huneeus, S. Basart, S. Fiedler, J.-J. Morcrette, A. Benedetti, J. Mulcahy, E. Terradellas, C. Pérez García-Pando, G. Pejanovic, S. Nickovic, P. Arsenovic, M. Schulz, E. Cuevas, J. M. Baldasano, J. Pey, S. Remy, and B. Cvetkovic

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Cited articles

Agier, L., Deroubaix, A., Martiny, N., Yaka, P., Djibo, A., and Broutin H.: Seasonality of meningitis in Africa and climate forcing: aerosols stand out, J. R. Soc. Interface, 10, 20120814, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2012.0814, 2013.
Allen, C. J. T., Washington, R., and Engelstaedter, S.: Dust emission and transport mechanisms in the central Sahara: Fennec ground-based observations from Bordj Badji Mokhtar, June 2011, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 6212–6232, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50534, 2013.
Alpert, P., Krichak, S. O., Tsidulko, M., Shafir, H., and Joseph, J. H.: A dust prediction system with TOMS initialization, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 2335–2345, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2335:adpswt>2.0.co;2, 2002.
Aumont, O., Bopp, L., and Schulz, M.: What does temporal variability in aeolian dust deposition contribute to sea-surface iron and chlorophyll distributions?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L07607, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031131, 2008.
Bagnold, R. A.: The Physics of Blown Sand and Desert Dunes, Methuen, London, 1941.
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Short summary
Five dust models are evaluated regarding their performance in predicting an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe (NE). Models predict the onset and evolution of the event for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences in lead times for each model. The models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards NE. This is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical dust distribution and horizontal wind.
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