Articles | Volume 20, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8251-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8251-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Jul 2020
Research article |
| 16 Jul 2020
| 16 Jul 2020
Response of surface shortwave cloud radiative effect to greenhouse gases and aerosols and its impact on summer maximum temperature
Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
Drew Shindell
Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
Yuqiang Zhang
Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
Apostolos Voulgarakis
Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK
Jean-Francois Lamarque
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Gunnar Myhre
CICERO, Center for International Climate and Environment Research, Oslo, Norway
Camilla W. Stjern
CICERO, Center for International Climate and Environment Research, Oslo, Norway
Gregory Faluvegi
Center for Climate System Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Bjørn H. Samset
CICERO, Center for International Climate and Environment Research, Oslo, Norway
Related authors
Bin Luo, Yuqiang Zhang, Tao Tang, Hongliang Zhang, Jianlin Hu, Jiangshan Mu, Wenxing Wang, and Likun Xue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4767–4783, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4767-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4767-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
India is facing a severe air pollution crisis that poses significant health risks, particularly from PM2.5 and O3. Our study reveals rising levels of both pollutants from 1995 to 2014, leading to increased premature mortality. While anthropogenic emissions play a significant role, biomass burning also impacts air quality, in particular seasons and regions in India. This study underscores the urgent need for localized policies to protect public health amid escalating environmental challenges.
Jianyu Zheng, Hongbin Yu, Chamara Rajapakse, Mian Chin, Michael Schulz, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E. Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Peter Colarco, Dongchul Kim, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Yevgeny Derimian, Oleg Dubovik, Paul Ginoux, Zak Kipling, Jasper F. Kok, Harri Kokkola, Philippe Le Sager, Lei Li, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Dirk J. L. Olivie, Samuel Remy, Oyvind Seland, Qianqian Song, Toshihiko Takemura, Qian Tan, Kostas Tsigaridis, Twan van Noije, David Winker, Bin Xie, Hua Zhang, Xindan Zhang, and Zhibo Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4322, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Winds carry vast amounts of Saharan dust across the Atlantic Ocean, influencing climate, air quality, and ocean ecosystems. Within the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project, we evaluated 17 numerical models against observations. Models deposit dust too quickly, so too little reaches the Caribbean. Better simulations require emitting larger particles, treating their non-spherical shapes, and capturing processes that keep dust aloft during transport.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Terje K. Berntsen, Ada Gjermundsen, Ragnar Bang Huseby, Gunnar Myhre, Dirk Olivié, and Trude Storelvmo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4634, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Climate sensitivity is a key quantity in climate science. We tested an observation-based method for estimating climate sensitivity by replacing observations with historical climate model simulations. Estimates varied substantially among simulations of the same model where only the initial conditions differed. Since the historical climate is only one realization of the Earth’s climate, this highlights that natural variability is an important source of uncertainty in observation-based estimates.
Theodore R. Keeping, Mariam Zachariah, Olivia Haas, Manolis Grillakis, Clair Barnes, Gareth D. Clay, Bikem Ekberzade, Orjeta Jaupaj, Andreia Ribeiro, Ricardo Trigo, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3761–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3761-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3761-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
2025 broke wildfire records across European regions. For five regions, we identify the weather, vegetation and management conditions that drove these extreme fires. We found the change in the likelihood and intensity of similar driving “fire weather”, from before human-caused warming to present, and from now to a likely future climate. Summer drought and hot, dry and windy conditions have shifted rapidly, with 2025’s conditions no longer rare in some regions despite devastating fires.
Srinath Krishnan, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Maria Sand, Marit Sandstad, Hannah Bryant, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Fabien Paulot, Michael Prather, and David Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 9509–9539, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-9509-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-9509-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrogen (H2) is an indirect greenhouse gas that can affect climate through chemical reactions in the atmosphere. To better understand this impact, it is important to constrain the sources and sinks of hydrogen. Using a suite of three-dimensional and one-dimensional models, we find that atmospheric production of hydrogen is 37–60 Tg/yr and that the geological source of H2 is much smaller than suggested. More field and isotopic measurements are needed to improve these estimates.
Feifei Luo, Manoj Joshi, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Yan-Ning Kuo, Wei Hua, and Shuanglin Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3301, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines if this impact changes in a warmer world. Using a climate model, we compare identical Asian emissions under cooler and 1 K warmer climates. Aerosols reduce extreme rainfall in both, but more strongly over northern India in the warmer climate. A warmer, stabler atmosphere weakens circulation that partly offsets aerosol drying in cooler conditions. Continued warming may strengthen this drying over parts of Asia, while future pollution cuts could amplify heavy rainfall.
Peng Zhou, Jieming Chou, Li Dan, Jean-François Lamarque, Muhammad Bilal, Fang Li, Mengting Sun, Rebecca Buchholz, Desneiges Murray, Zhaoxiang Cao, Jing Peng, Kai Li, Fuqiang Yang, Wei Pan, Jinyan Chen, and Liwen Xing
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 5491–5513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5491-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5491-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the impact of ozone damage representations in a land-surface model on simulations of vegetation productivity. Results varied depending on how ozone effects were triggered and how vegetation recovery was modeled. Schemes that incorporated vegetation-specific thresholds and memory effects on photosynthesis and water loss more accurately reflected spatial patterns, indicating directions for enhancing model realism and improving projections of ecosystem responses to ozone pollution.
João C. M. Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 739–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-739-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-739-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Burned area has declined globally since the late 1990s, especially in tropical savannas, yet many climate models miss this trend because they poorly represent human fire use and suppression. We tested whether adding a simple link to human development improves a fire model. This reduced large regional errors and better captured downward trends in several areas, though it increased global underestimation and reduced variability. Human influence is key, but simple assumptions have trade-offs.
Rafaila-Nikola Mourgela, Iulian-Alin Rosu, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3239, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the global radiative and climate impacts of present-day wildfire emissions. Using EC-Earth3 and CMIP6 emissions, we performed atmosphere-only and ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations to study the local and remote impacts. Our results show a net negative radiative effect dominated by aerosol-cloud interactions. The climate response is mainly driven by the slow ocean-mediated response, producing global cooling and strong regional precipitation changes.
Piers M. Forster, Tristram Walsh, Chris Smith, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie M. Andrew, Chris Atkinson, Richard A. Betts, Antonio Bombelli, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Helen E. Claxton, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas L. Frölicher, Catia M. Domingues, Thomas Gasser, Catherine H. Gregory, Rachel M. Hoesly, Daniel Huppmann, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, Alexia Karwat, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Jean-François Lamarque, Aurélien Liné, Belén Martín-Míguez, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Pino Mussak, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Steven J. Smith, Ghassan Taha, Caterina Tassone, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Marco Zecchetto, Junting Zhong, Xiao-Ye Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We give our annual update of key climate indicators. Our work quantifies the human contribution to global warming and the pace of climate change. This represents a large effort by the international community akin to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Bosi Sheng, Massimo A. Bollasina, Alexandre S. Gagnon, Laura J. Wilcox, Thomas P. S. Reynolds, Christopher T. S. Beckett, Haolin Wang, Qingxiang Li, Pierre Nabat, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Joonas Merikanto, Geeta G. Persad, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sharar Ahmadi, Maxwell T. Elling, Knut von Salzen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Naga Oshima, and Tsuyoshi Koshiro
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2198, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Observational records indicate that austral summer rainfall over southern Africa experienced substantial wetting during the late 20th century, followed by pronounced drying over the past two decades. We show that East Asian sulphate aerosol emissions played a key role in shaping these rainfall trends. These findings have important implications for reducing uncertainties in regional rainfall projections and for understanding their links to ecosystem changes.
Fang Li, David M. Lawrence, Brendan M. Rogers, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Yiquan Jiang, Johannes W. Kaiser, Matthew Kasoar, Hanna Lee, Ruby Leung, Lars Nieradzik, Aihui Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Ligeer Ce, Yangchun Li, Zhongda Lin, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Yongkang Xue
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3989–4007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3989-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3989-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme fire events are increasing, and fires are projected to rise across most regions, posing growing risks to ecosystems and society. As a key Earth system process, fire is now modeled in most Earth System Models (ESMs). FireMIP (Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project) within CMIP7 will evaluate fire simulations in state‑of‑the‑art ESMs, project future fire changes, and provide quantitative, process‑based understanding of fire's role in the Earth system.
Jiangshan Mu, Chenliang Tao, Yuqiang Zhang, Zhou Liu, Yingnan Zhang, Na Zhao, Bin Luo, Qionghui Zhou, Qingzhu Zhang, Hongliang Zhang, and Likun Xue
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 2999–3011, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2999-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2999-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant that varies strongly across space and time, yet consistent global information has been limited. We developed a new global dataset that describes daily nitrogen dioxide levels from 2005 to 2023 by combining satellite observations, weather data, and ground measurements using artificial intelligence. The dataset reveals long-term changes and regional patterns and provides a reliable resource for future air quality research.
Jianing Guo, Xiaoning Xie, Gunnar Myhre, Drew Shindell, Alf Kirkevåg, Trond Iversen, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Toshihiko Takemura, Ke Shang, Xinzhou Li, Zhengguo Shi, Yangang Liu, Xiaodong Liu, and Hong Yan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 5169–5184, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5169-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5169-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia has grown wetter in recent decades, but the drivers differ by season. We analyzed observations and climate model experiments to understand these changes and their future. Our analysis reveals that greenhouse gases from human activities drive winter wetting, whereas aerosol from Asia urbanization and industrialization enhances summer precipitation. As future reductions in air pollution, the region may experience drier summers and create new risks for regional water resources.
Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, Srinath Krishnan, Maria Sand, Marit Sandstad, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Lieven Clarisse, Bruno Franco, Dylan B. Millet, Kelley C. Wells, Alexander Archibald, Hannah N. Bryant, Alex T. Chaudhri, David S. Stevenson, Didier Hauglustaine, Michael Prather, J. Christopher Kaiser, Dirk J. L. Olivie, Michael Schulz, Oliver Wild, Ye Wang, Thérèse Salameh, Jason E. Williams, Philippe Le Sager, Fabien Paulot, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Haley E. Plaas
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2577-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2577-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) affect air quality and climate, but their behavior in the atmosphere is still uncertain. We launched a global research effort to compare how different models represent these compounds and to improve their accuracy. By analyzing model results alongside observations and satellite data, we aim to better understand the atmospheric composition of these compounds.
Birthe Marie Steensen, Gunnar Myhre, Rachael Byrom, Ada Gjermundsen, Caroline Jouan, and Camilla Weum Stjern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 2041–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2041-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2041-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyze summer precipitation within a regional atmospheric budget framework over Europe. We identify the terms with the largest uncertainties for current change and future projections that cause the large spread in precipitation change, as sensible heat and dry static energy flux divergence in Earth System models. However, the Earth System models show consistent agreement that there will be an increase in drying over continental Europe with global warming.
Peter W. Thorne, John M. Nicklas, John J. Kennedy, Bruce Calvert, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Mark T. Richardson, Adrian Simmons, Ed Hawkins, Robert Rhode, Kathryn Cowtan, Nerilie J. Abram, Axel Andersson, Simon Noone, Phillipe Marbaix, Nathan Lenssen, Dirk Olonscheck, Tristram Walsh, Stephen Outten, Ingo Bethke, Bjorn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Anna Pirani, Jan Fuglestvedt, Lavanya Rajamani, Richard A. Betts, Elizabeth C. Kent, Blair Trewin, Colin Morice, Tim Osborn, Samantha N. Burgess, Oliver Geden, Andrew Parnell, Piers M. Forster, Chris Hewitt, Zeke Hausfather, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Jochem Marotzke, Nathan Gillett, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Gavin A. Schmidt, Duo Chan, Stefan Brönnimann, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Menne, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Christopher Kadow, Peter Huybers, David B. Stephenson, Emily Wallis, Joeri Rogelj, Andrew Schurer, Karen McKinnon, Panmao Zhai, Fatima Driouech, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Saeed Vazifehkhah, Sophie Szopa, Christopher J. Merchant, Shoji Hirahara, Masayoshi Ishii, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Qingxiang Li, June-Yi Lee, Alex J. Cannon, Christophe Cassou, Karina von Schuckmann, Amir H. Delju, and Ellie Murtagh
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We reassess the basis for determining the present level of long-term global warming. Unbiased estimates of both realised warming and anthropogenic warming are possible that approximate a 20-year retrospective mean. Our resulting estimates of 1.40 [1.23–1.58] °C (realised) and 1.34 [1.18–1.50] °C (anthropogenic) as at end of 2024 highlight the urgency of immediate, far-reaching and sustained climate mitigation actions if we are to meet the long term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Susanne Baur, Carl-Freidrich Schleussner, Glen P. Peters, Shivika Mittal, Marit Sandstad, Steffen Kallbekken, Chris Smith, Sabine Fuss, Bas van Ruijven, Rosie A. Fisher, Joeri Rogelj, Roland Séférian, Bjørn Samset, Norman J. Steinert, Laurent Terray, and Jan Fuglestvedt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-28, 2026
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Solar Radiation Modification by adding aerosols to the stratosphere could rapidly and temporarily cool the Earth, but this speed creates unprecedented risks. Fast climate responses coupled with political instability create risks of failure to decarbonise, super-rapid climate change, and conflict. Idealized scenarios or conventional modeling tools could lead to systematic ignorance of these risks. We thus introduce a framework outlining what must be represented in future modeling and assessment.
William J. Collins, John S. Daniel, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Martin Cussac, Makoto Deushi, Gregory Faluvegi, Paul Griffiths, Øivind Hodnebrog, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Douglas Kinnison, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Drew Shindell, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Zihao Wang, and James Weber
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6033, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are also greenhouse gases that cause global warming. However, their destruction of ozone contributes a global cooling. We have used results from climate models that include atmospheric chemistry and found that the cooling effect of the ozone depletion diagnosed in the models was larger than that calculated using a standard method. We find that some ODSs have a net cooling effect whereas for others the warming effect is significantly reduced.
Jean-Francois Lamarque, Pierre Friedlingstein, Brian Osias, Steve Strongin, Venkatramani Balaji, Kevin W. Bowman, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Heidi Cullen, Kenneth J. Davis, Scott C. Doney, Kevin R. Gurney, Alicia R. Karspeck, Charles D. Koven, Galen McKinley, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Britt Stephens, and Colm Sweeney
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6457, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This Perspective highlights requirements to scale the carbon credit market and enable the growth in climate solutions funded through such market. The requirements are on the understanding of the value of the proposed carbon credit projects, and on the availability of a verification system. This verification becomes particularly relevant as the carbon credit market scales to significant impacts on CO2 (or other greenhouse gases), such that attribution to collective actions can be identified.
Carley E. Iles, Bjørn H. Samset, and Marianne T. Lund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2253–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2253-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Polar sea ice changes and midlatitude weather affect each other, but how these teleconnections play out differ between the poles and between sea ice regions. Knowing how they interact is important for climate risk assessments, but few studies have investigated how the teleconnections evolve with global warming. Using large ensembles of climate model simulations, we find teleconnections patterns that differ between sea ice regions, but are quite robust to changes in global surface temperature.
Laura A. Mansfield, Peer J. Nowack, Edmund M. Ryan, Oliver Wild, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6046, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a fast machine learning emulator that predicts how Earth’s surface temperature reacts within the first five years to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosol pollutants. It is trained on carefully designed simulations from a complex climate model, but can be run much faster. Our emulator can be used to show where the climate is most sensitive to different emissions and can help explore many possible future paths, making it easier to assess the climate effects of policy choices.
Joe Adabouk Amooli, Marianne T. Lund, Sourangsu Chowdhury, Gunnar Myhre, Ane N. Johansen, Bjørn H. Samset, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 11611–11632, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11611-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze various projections of African aerosol emissions and their potential impacts on climate and public health. We find that future emissions vary widely across emission projections, with differences in sectoral emission distributions. Using the Oslo chemical transport model, we show that air pollution exposure in some regions of Africa could increase significantly by 2050, increasing pollution-related deaths, with most scenarios projecting aerosol-induced warming over sub-Saharan Africa.
Catherine A. Toolan, Joe Adabouk Amooli, Laura J. Wilcox, Bjørn H. Samset, Andrew G. Turner, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 10523–10557, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10523-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10523-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how well air pollution and rainfall patterns in Africa are represented in current climate models by comparing model data to observations from 1981 to 2023. While most models capture seasonal air quality changes well, they struggle to replicate the distribution of non-dust pollutants and certain rainfall patterns, especially over east Africa. Improving these models is crucial for better climate predictions and preparing for future risks.
Anastasios Rovithakis, Eleanor Burke, Chantelle Burton, Matthew Kasoar, Manolis G. Grillakis, Konstantinos D. Seiradakis, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3185–3200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3185-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3185-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used a land surface computer model to forecast how climate change will impact wildfires in Greece. Our results show a significant increase in future burnt area due to hotter, drier climate. Allowing vegetation to change with the climate lessens this increase overall, since fire is no longer igniting in areas already burnt, and it even led to projected decreases in the agricultural areas in the north of the country.
Mingxuan Wu, Hailong Wang, Zheng Lu, Xiaohong Liu, Huisheng Bian, David D. Cohen, Yan Feng, Mian Chin, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Vlassis A. Karydis, Marianne T. Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Andrea Pozzer, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Shaocheng Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 10049–10074, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10049-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10049-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A key challenge in simulating the life cycle of nitrate aerosol in global models is accurately representing the mass size distribution of nitrate aerosol, which lacks sufficient observational constraints. We found that most global models underestimate the mass fraction of fine-mode nitrate at the surface in all regions. Our study highlights the importance of gas–aerosol partitioning parameterization and the simulation of dust and sea salt in correctly simulating the mass size distribution of nitrate.
William J. Collins, Fiona M. O'Connor, Rachael E. Byrom, Øivind Hodnebrog, Patrick Jöckel, Mariano Mertens, Gunnar Myhre, Matthias Nützel, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Laura Stecher, Larry W. Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Gregory Faluvegi, Ulas Im, Lee T. Murray, Drew Shindell, Kostas Tsigaridis, Nathan Luke Abraham, and James Keeble
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9031–9060, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9031-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9031-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used 7 climate models that include atmospheric chemistry and find that in a scenario with weak controls on air quality, the warming effects (over 2015 to 2050) of decreases in ozone-depleting substances and increases in air quality pollutants are approximately equal and would make ozone the second highest contributor to warming over this period. We find that for stratospheric ozone recovery, the standard measure of climate effects underestimates a more comprehensive measure.
Oliver Perkins, Olivia Haas, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and James D. A. Millington
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3728, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Humans impact fire indirectly through climate change, but also directly through land use and different fire management strategies. We compare two recently-developed models of global burned area with very different assumptions about the role of direct human impacts on fire. We contrast their future projections and explore the implications of differences between them for climate change adaptation and fire science more broadly.
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael Prather, Alex Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Bjørn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Steven Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8289–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. We review its contribution to AR6 (Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify challenges and provide recommendations to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data, detailed summary tables of CMIP6 models, experiments, and emergent diagnostics.
Tuomas Naakka, Daniel Köhler, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Bjørn H. Samset, Victoria A. Sinclair, Jennie L. Thomas, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8127–8145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effects of warmer sea surface temperatures and decreasing sea ice cover on polar climates have been studied using four climate models with identical prescribed changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. The models predict similar changes in air temperature and precipitation in the polar regions in a warmer climate with less sea ice. However, the models disagree on how the atmospheric circulation, i.e. the large-scale winds, will change with warmer temperatures and less sea ice.
Xiao Lu, Yiming Liu, Jiayin Su, Xiang Weng, Tabish Ansari, Yuqiang Zhang, Guowen He, Yuqi Zhu, Haolin Wang, Ganquan Zeng, Jingyu Li, Cheng He, Shuai Li, Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen, Tim Butler, Qi Fan, Shaojia Fan, Grant L. Forster, Meng Gao, Jianlin Hu, Yugo Kanaya, Mohd Talib Latif, Keding Lu, Philippe Nédélec, Peer Nowack, Bastien Sauvage, Xiaobin Xu, Lin Zhang, Ke Li, Ja-Ho Koo, and Tatsuya Nagashima
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7991–8028, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes summertime ozone trends in East and Southeast Asia derived from a comprehensive observational database spanning from 1995 to 2019, incorporating aircraft observations, ozonesonde data, and measurements from 2500 surface sites. Multiple models are applied to attribute to changes in anthropogenic emissions and climate. The results highlight that increases in anthropogenic emissions are the primary driver of ozone increases both in the free troposphere and at the surface.
Feifei Luo, Bjørn H. Samset, Camilla W. Stjern, Manoj Joshi, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Wei Hua, and Shuanglin Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7647–7667, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7647-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7647-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Black carbon (BC) aerosol is emitted from the incomplete combustion of biomass and fossil fuels. We found that Asian BC leads to strong local cooling and drying. Reductions in precipitation primarily depend on the thermodynamic effects due to solar radiation absorption by BC. The combined thermodynamic and dynamic effects shape the spatial pattern of precipitation responses to Asian BC. These results help us further understand the impact of emissions of anthropogenic aerosols on Asian climate.
Yue Sun, Yujiao Zhu, Hengde Liu, Lanxiadi Chen, Hongyong Li, Yujian Bi, Di Wu, Xiangkun Yin, Can Cui, Ping Liu, Yu Yang, Jisheng Zhang, Yanqiu Nie, Lanxin Zhang, Jiangshan Mu, Yuhong Liu, Zhaoxin Guo, Qinyi Li, Yuqiang Zhang, Xinfeng Wang, Mingjin Tang, Wenxing Wang, and Likun Xue
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2855, 2025
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Rainwater samples collected at the summit of Mount Tai were analyzed for ice-nucleating particles (INPs). Our findings revealed that INP concentrations peaked in spring, driven predominantly by long-range transport of dust aerosols. Mineral dust contributed 43.6 % of annual INPs, with its contribution rising sharply to 71.7 % in spring. Satellite observations further revealed that the long-range transport of dust in spring promotes large-scale cloud formation over the NCP region.
Rachael E. Byrom, Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, Dirk Olivié, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5683–5693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Addressing the cause of model spread in CO2 effective radiative forcing (ERF) is important for reducing uncertainty in climate change. We investigate stratospheric O3 as a driver of this spread by altering its concentration by 50 % and analysing the impact on CO2 forcing. Our experiments show a significant effect on stratospheric temperature that impacts instantaneous radiative forcing, primarily due to the influence on longwave emission. However, the impact on ERF is minimal.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Marit Sandstad, Srinath Krishnan, Gunnar Myhre, and Maria Sand
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4929–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrogen leakages can alter the amount of climate gases in the atmosphere and hence have a climate impact. In this study we investigate, using an atmospheric chemistry model, how this indirect climate effect differs with different amounts of leakages and with where the hydrogen leaks and if this effect changes in the future. The effect is largest for emissions far from areas where hydrogen is removed from the atmosphere by the soil, but these are not relevant locations for a future hydrogen economy.
Bin Luo, Yuqiang Zhang, Tao Tang, Hongliang Zhang, Jianlin Hu, Jiangshan Mu, Wenxing Wang, and Likun Xue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4767–4783, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4767-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4767-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
India is facing a severe air pollution crisis that poses significant health risks, particularly from PM2.5 and O3. Our study reveals rising levels of both pollutants from 1995 to 2014, leading to increased premature mortality. While anthropogenic emissions play a significant role, biomass burning also impacts air quality, in particular seasons and regions in India. This study underscores the urgent need for localized policies to protect public health amid escalating environmental challenges.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4443–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that, while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03 °C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Kalle Nordling, Nora L. S. Fahrenbach, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1659–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
People experience daily weather, not changes in monthly averages. We investigate the likelihood of events, which occurred once every 10 years in the pre-industrial era. We analyze how summertime precipitation and daily maximum temperature events evolve. Our focus is on understanding the role of day-to-day variability in the change in the number of extreme weather days. We find that in most regions, a change in variability is the primary driver for change in summertime extreme precipitation.
Mariya Petrenko, Ralph Kahn, Mian Chin, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Huisheng Bian, Gabriele Curci, Ben Johnson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Zak Kipling, Harri Kokkola, Xiaohong Liu, Keren Mezuman, Tero Mielonen, Gunnar Myhre, Xiaohua Pan, Anna Protonotariou, Samuel Remy, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Hailong Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Kai Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1545–1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1545-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We compared smoke plume simulations from 11 global models to each other and to satellite smoke amount observations aimed at constraining smoke source strength. In regions where plumes are thick and background aerosol is low, models and satellites compare well. However, the input emission inventory tends to underestimate in many places, and particle property and loss rate assumptions vary enormously among models, causing uncertainties that require systematic in situ measurements to resolve.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Rachael Byrom, Øivind Hodnebrog, Caroline Jouan, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13361–13370, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13361-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2020, new regulations by the International Maritime Organization regarding sulfur emissions came into force, reducing emissions of SO2 from the shipping sector by approximately 80 %. In this study, we use multiple models to calculate how much the Earth energy balance changed due to the emission reduction or the so-called effective radiative forcing. The calculated effective radiative forcing is weak, comparable to the effect of the increase in CO2 over the last 2 to 3 years.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Magne Aldrin, Terje K. Berntsen, Marit Holden, Ragnar Bang Huseby, Gunnar Myhre, and Trude Storelvmo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1435–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are central quantities in climate science that are uncertain and contribute to the spread in climate projections. To constrain them, we use observations of temperature and ocean heat content as well as prior knowledge of radiative forcings over the industrialized period. The estimates are sensitive to how aerosol cooling evolved over the latter part of the 20th century, and a strong aerosol forcing trend in the 1960s–1970s is not supported by our analysis.
Zizhen Han, Yuqiang Zhang, Zhou Liu, Kexin Zhang, Zhuyi Wang, Bin Luo, Likun Xue, and Xinfeng Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2951, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
During the COVID-19 lockdown, changes in air pollutants offered a real-world test of emission reductions. JPL’s chemical reanalysis data showed a general decrease in CO, NO2, O3, and nitrate aerosols across most African countries, but an increase in SO2, sulfate aerosols, and O3 in Southern Africa during winter. We concluded that air quality changes are influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors, emphasizing the need for stricter emission standards and clean energy promotion in Africa.
Robert J. Allen, Xueying Zhao, Cynthia A. Randles, Ryan J. Kramer, Bjørn H. Samset, and Christopher J. Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11207–11226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes 28% (7–55%) of the surface warming associated with its longwave absorption. The precipitation increase associated with the longwave radiative effects of the present-day methane perturbation is also muted by shortwave absorption but not significantly so. Methane shortwave absorption also impacts the magnitude of its climate feedback parameter, largely through the cloud feedback.
Marit Sandstad, Borgar Aamaas, Ane Nordlie Johansen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Glen Philip Peters, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Benjamin Mark Sanderson, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6589–6625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The CICERO-SCM has existed as a Fortran model since 1999 that calculates the radiative forcing and concentrations from emissions and is an upwelling diffusion energy balance model of the ocean that calculates temperature change. In this paper, we describe an updated version ported to Python and publicly available at https://github.com/ciceroOslo/ciceroscm (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10548720). This version contains functionality for parallel runs and automatic calibration.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Oliver Perkins, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Cathy Smith, Jay Mistry, and James D. A. Millington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3993–4016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire is often presented in the media as a danger to human life. Yet globally, millions of people’s livelihoods depend on using fire as a tool. So, patterns of fire emerge from interactions between humans, land use, and climate. This complexity means scientists cannot yet reliably say how fire will be impacted by climate change. So, we developed a new model that represents globally how people use and manage fire. The model reveals the extent and diversity of how humans live with and use fire.
Alexandra Rivera, Kostas Tsigaridis, Gregory Faluvegi, and Drew Shindell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3487–3505, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3487-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3487-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes and evaluates an improvement to the representation of acetone in the GISS ModelE2.1 Earth system model. We simulate acetone's concentration and transport across the atmosphere as well as its dependence on chemistry, the ocean, and various global emissions. Comparisons of our model’s estimates to past modeling studies and field measurements have shown encouraging results. Ultimately, this paper contributes to a broader understanding of acetone's role in the atmosphere.
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3063–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterization in the northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Chenliang Tao, Yanbo Peng, Qingzhu Zhang, Yuqiang Zhang, Bing Gong, Qiao Wang, and Wenxing Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4177–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4177-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a novel transformer framework to bridge the sparse surface monitoring for inferring ozone–NOx–VOC–aerosol sensitivity and their urban–nonurban discrepancies at a finer scale with implications for improving our understanding of ozone variations. The change in urban–rural disparities in ozone was dominated by PM2.5 from 2019 to 2020. An aerosol-inhibited regime on top of the two traditional NOx- and VOC-limited regimes was identified in Jiaodong Peninsula, Shandong, China.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
George Jordan, Florent Malavelle, Ying Chen, Amy Peace, Eliza Duncan, Daniel G. Partridge, Paul Kim, Duncan Watson-Parris, Toshihiko Takemura, David Neubauer, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Skeie, Anton Laakso, and James Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1939–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2014–15 Holuhraun eruption caused a huge aerosol plume in an otherwise unpolluted region, providing a chance to study how aerosol alters cloud properties. This two-part study uses observations and models to quantify this relationship’s impact on the Earth’s energy budget. Part 1 suggests the models capture the observed spatial and chemical evolution of the plume, yet no model plume is exact. Understanding these differences is key for Part 2, where changes to cloud properties are explored.
Christopher D. Wells, Matthew Kasoar, Majid Ezzati, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1025–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Human-driven emissions of air pollutants, mostly caused by burning fossil fuels, impact both the climate and human health. Millions of deaths each year are caused by air pollution globally, and the future trends are uncertain. Here, we use a global climate model to study the effect of African pollutant emissions on surface level air pollution, and resultant impacts on human health, in several future emission scenarios. We find much lower health impacts under cleaner, lower-emission futures.
Hamza Ahsan, Hailong Wang, Jingbo Wu, Mingxuan Wu, Steven J. Smith, Susanne Bauer, Harrison Suchyta, Dirk Olivié, Gunnar Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Huisheng Bian, Jean-François Lamarque, Ken Carslaw, Larry Horowitz, Leighton Regayre, Mian Chin, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Vaishali Naik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the impact of the assumed effective height of SO2 injection, SO2 and BC emission seasonality, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions injected as SO4 on climate and chemistry model results. We find that the SO2 injection height has a large impact on surface SO2 concentrations and, in some models, radiative flux. These assumptions are a
hiddensource of inter-model variability and may be leading to bias in some climate model results.
Saroj Kumar Sahu, Poonam Mangaraj, Gufran Beig, Marianne T. Lund, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Pallavi Sahoo, and Ashirbad Mishra
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-310, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-310, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Elevated emission of particulate matter is not limited to urban areas, led to poor air quality across the country. Emission Inventory is the first line of defensive tools for air quality management and understanding and identification of the source of pollutants. The present work is an attempt to develop a high-resolution (~10 km) national inventory of particulate pollutants in India for 2020 using IPCC methodology. The developed dataset is vital piece of information for mitigation strategies.
Joao Carlos Martins Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelly, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Representing socio-economic impacts on fires is crucial to underpin the confidence in global fire models. Introducing these into INFERNO, reduces biases and improves the modelled burnt area (BA) trends when compared to observations. Including socio-economic factors in the representation of fires in Earth System Models is important for realistically simulating BA, quantifying trends in the recent past, and for understanding the main drivers of those at regional scales.
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, and Zbigniew Klimont
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6647–6662, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show that differences, in magnitude and trend, between recent global anthropogenic emission inventories have a notable influence on simulated regional abundances of anthropogenic aerosol over the 1990–2019 period. This, in turn, affects estimates of radiative forcing. Our findings form a basis for comparing existing and upcoming studies on anthropogenic aerosols using different emission inventories.
Christopher D. Wells, Matthew Kasoar, Nicolas Bellouin, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3575–3593, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3575-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3575-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The climate is altered by greenhouse gases and air pollutant particles, and such emissions are likely to change drastically in the future over Africa. Air pollutants do not travel far, so their climate effect depends on where they are emitted. This study uses a climate model to find the climate impacts of future African pollutant emissions being either high or low. The particles absorb and scatter sunlight, causing the ground nearby to be cooler, but elsewhere the increased heat causes warming.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 99–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have prepared a unique and unusual result from the recent ATom aircraft mission: a measurement-based derivation of the production and loss rates of ozone and methane over the ocean basins. These are the key products of chemistry models used in assessments but have thus far lacked observational metrics. It also shows the scales of variability of atmospheric chemical rates and provides a major challenge to the atmospheric models.
Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, Jared Lewis, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Malte Meinshausen, Matthew J. Gidden, Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura Wienpahl, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Piers M. Forster, Andy Reisinger, Roberto Schaeffer, and Keywan Riahi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9075–9109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing hundreds or thousands of emission scenarios in terms of their global mean temperature implications requires standardised procedures of infilling, harmonisation, and probabilistic temperature assessments. We here present the open-source
climate-assessmentworkflow that was used in the IPCC AR6 Working Group III report. The paper provides key insight for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement.
Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, David A. Bailey, Nan Rosenbloom, Brian Dobbins, Walker R. Lee, Mari Tye, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8221–8243, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar climate intervention using stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method of reducing global mean temperatures to reduce the worst consequences of climate change. We present a new modeling protocol aimed at simulating a plausible deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection and reproducibility of simulations using other Earth system models: Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI).
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Qirui Zhong, Nick Schutgens, Guido van der Werf, Twan van Noije, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Tero Mielonen, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Harri Kokkola, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, David Neubauer, Zak Kipling, Hitoshi Matsui, Paul Ginoux, Toshihiko Takemura, Philippe Le Sager, Samuel Rémy, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Kai Zhang, Jialei Zhu, Svetlana G. Tsyro, Gabriele Curci, Anna Protonotariou, Ben Johnson, Joyce E. Penner, Nicolas Bellouin, Ragnhild B. Skeie, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11009–11032, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol optical depth (AOD) errors for biomass burning aerosol (BBA) are evaluated in 18 global models against satellite datasets. Notwithstanding biases in satellite products, they allow model evaluations. We observe large and diverse model biases due to errors in BBA. Further interpretations of AOD diversities suggest large biases exist in key processes for BBA which require better constraining. These results can contribute to further model improvement and development.
Jiandong Wang, Jia Xing, Shuxiao Wang, Rohit Mathur, Jiaping Wang, Yuqiang Zhang, Chao Liu, Jonathan Pleim, Dian Ding, Xing Chang, Jingkun Jiang, Peng Zhao, Shovan Kumar Sahu, Yuzhi Jin, David C. Wong, and Jiming Hao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5147–5156, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5147-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5147-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols reduce surface solar radiation and change the photolysis rate and planetary boundary layer stability. In this study, the online coupled meteorological and chemistry model was used to explore the detailed pathway of how aerosol direct effects affect secondary inorganic aerosol. The effects through the dynamics pathway act as an equally or even more important route compared with the photolysis pathway in affecting secondary aerosol concentration in both summer and winter.
Dianyi Li, Drew Shindell, Dian Ding, Xiao Lu, Lin Zhang, and Yuqiang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2625–2638, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2625-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we applied chemical transport model simulation with the latest annual anthropogenic emission inventory to study the long-term trend of ozone-induced crop production losses from 2010 to 2017 in China. We find that overall the ozone-induced crop production loss in China is significant and the annual average economic losses for wheat, rice, maize, and soybean in China are USD 9.55 billion, USD 8.53 billion, USD 2.23 billion, and USD 1.16 billion respectively, over the 8 years.
Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, Axel Timmermann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Clara Deser, Jim Edwards, Ji-Eun Kim, Isla R. Simpson, Karl Stein, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Tamás Bódai, Eui-Seok Chung, Lei Huang, Who M. Kim, Jean-François Lamarque, Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, and Stephen G. Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A large ensemble of simulations with 100 members has been conducted with the state-of-the-art CESM2 Earth system model, using historical and SSP3-7.0 forcing. Our main finding is that there are significant changes in the variance of the Earth system in response to anthropogenic forcing, with these changes spanning a broad range of variables important to impacts for human populations and ecosystems.
Yuqiang Zhang, Drew Shindell, Karl Seltzer, Lu Shen, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Qiang Zhang, Bo Zheng, Jia Xing, Zhe Jiang, and Lei Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16051–16065, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use a global chemical transport model to simulate the effects on global air quality and human health due to emission changes in China from 2010 to 2017. By performing sensitivity analysis, we found that the air pollution control policies not only decrease the air pollutant concentration but also bring significant co-benefits in air quality to downwind regions. The benefits for the improved air pollution are dominated by PM2.5.
João C. Teixeira, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nadine Unger, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6515–6539, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6515-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Fire constitutes a key process in the Earth system, being driven by climate as well as affecting climate. However, studies on the effects of fires on atmospheric composition and climate have been limited to date. This work implements and assesses the coupling of an interactive fire model with atmospheric composition, comparing it to an offline approach. This approach shows good performance at a global scale. However, regional-scale limitations lead to a bias in modelling fire emissions.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Jonas Gliß, Susanne E. Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Paul Ginoux, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Twan van Noije, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Remy, Michael Schulz, Philip Stier, Camilla W. Stjern, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15929–15947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Absorption of shortwave radiation by aerosols can modify precipitation and clouds but is poorly constrained in models. A total of 15 different aerosol models from AeroCom phase III have reported total aerosol absorption, and for the first time, 11 of these models have reported in a consistent experiment the contributions to absorption from black carbon, dust, and organic aerosol. Here, we document the model diversity in aerosol absorption.
Kalle Nordling, Hannele Korhonen, Jouni Räisänen, Antti-Ilari Partanen, Bjørn H. Samset, and Joonas Merikanto
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14941–14958, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14941-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the temperature responses to different climate forcing agents, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, is crucial for understanding future regional climate changes. In climate models, the regional temperature responses vary for all forcing agents, but the causes of this variability are poorly understood. For all forcing agents, the main component contributing to variance in regional surface temperature responses between the climate models is the clear-sky longwave emissivity.
Cited articles
Allen, R. J., Sherwood, S. C., Norris, J. R., and Zender, C. S.:
Recent Northern Hemisphere tropical expansion primarily driven by black
carbon and tropospheric ozone, Nature, 485, 350–354,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11097, 2012.
Andrews, T., Forster, P. M., Boucher, O., Bellouin, N., and Jones, A.:
Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl043991, 2010.
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., and Taylor, K. E.:
Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean
climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09712, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl051607, 2012.
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., and Webb, M. J.: The dependence of
radiative forcing and feedback on evolving patterns of surface temperature
change in climate models, J. Climate, 28, 1630–1648,
https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-14-00545.1, 2015.
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Paynter, D., Silvers, L. G., Zhou, C.,
Mauritsen, T., Webb, M. J., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M., and Titchner, H.: Accounting for changing temperature patterns
increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 8490–8499,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078887, 2018.
Arora, V. K., Scinocca, J. F., Boer, G. J., Christian, J. R., Denman, K. L.,
Flato, G. M., Kharin, V. V., Lee, W. G., and Merryfield, W. J.: Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative
concentration pathways of greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05805,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046270, 2011.
Banacos, P. C. and Schultz, D. M.: The use of moisture flux
convergence in forecasting convective initiation: Historical and operational
perspectives, Weather Forecast., 20, 351–366, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF858.1, 2005.
Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., and García-Herrera, R.: The hot summer of 2010: Redrawing the
temperature record map of Europe, Science, 332, 220,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224, 2011.
Bellouin, N., Rae, J., Jones, A., Johnson, C., Haywood, J., and Boucher, O.:
Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)
simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016074, 2011.
Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Debernard, J. B., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A.,
Seland, Ø., Drange, H., Roelandt, C., Seierstad, I. A., Hoose, C., and
Kristjánsson, J. E.: The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 687–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013, 2013.
Boucher, O., Randall, D., Artaxo, P., Bretherton, C., Feingold, G., Forster, P., Kerminen, V.-M., Kondo, Y., Liao, H., and Lohmann, U.:
Clouds and aerosols, in: Climate change 2013: The physical science basis, Contribution of working group i to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,
New York, USA, 571–657, 2013.
Bretherton, C. S.: Insights into low-latitude cloud feedbacks from
high-resolution models, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 373,
20140415, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0415, 2015.
Caldwell, P. and Bretherton, C. S.: Large eddy simulation of the
diurnal cycle in Southeast Pacific stratocumulus, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 432–449,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2785.1, 2009.
Cheruy, F., Dufresne, J. L., Hourdin, F., and Ducharne, A.: Role of
clouds and land-atmosphere coupling in midlatitude continental summer warm
biases and climate change amplification in CMIP5 simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41,
6493–6500, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061145, 2014.
Chiriaco, M., Bastin, S., Yiou, P., Haeffelin, M., Dupont, J.-C., and Stéfanon, M.: European heatwave in july 2006: Observations and
modeling showing how local processes amplify conducive large-scale
conditions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5644–5652, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060205,
2014.
Christensen, M. W., Carrió, G. G., Stephens, G. L., and Cotton, W. R.:
Radiative impacts of free-tropospheric clouds on the properties of
marine stratocumulus, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 3102–3118,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0287.1, 2013.
Chuang, C. C., Penner, J. E., Prospero, J. M., Grant, K. E., Rau, G. H., and Kawamoto, K.: Cloud susceptibility and the first aerosol
indirect forcing: Sensitivity to black carbon and aerosol concentrations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 107, AAC 10-11–AAC 10-23,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD000215, 2002.
Chung, E.-S. and Soden, B. J.: Hemispheric climate shifts driven by
anthropogenic aerosol–cloud interactions, Nat. Geosci., 10, 566,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2988, 2017.
Ciais, P., Reichstein, M., Viovy, N., Granier, A., Ogée, J., Allard, V.,
Aubinet, M., Buchmann, N., Bernhofer, C., Carrara, A., Chevallier, F.,
De Noblet, N., Friend, A. D., Friedlingstein, P., Grünwald, T., Heinesch, B., Keronen, P., Knohl, A., Krinner, G., Loustau, D., Manca, G., Matteucci, G., Miglietta, F., Ourcival, J. M., Papale, D., Pilegaard, K., Rambal, S., Seufert, G., Soussana, J. F., Sanz, M. J., Schulze, E. D., Vesala, T., and Valentini, R.: Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the
heat and drought in 2003, Nature, 437, 529–533, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03972, 2005.
Clement, A. C., Burgman, R., and Norris, J. R.: Observational and
model evidence for positive low-level cloud feedback, Science, 325, 460,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1171255, 2009.
Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Halloran, P., Hinton, T., Hughes, J., Jones, C. D., Joshi, M., Liddicoat, S., Martin, G., O'Connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Sitch, S., Totterdell, I., Wiltshire, A., and Woodward, S.: Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model HadGEM2, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1051–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, 2011.
Dai, A., Trenberth, K. E., and Karl, T. R.: Effects of clouds, soil
moisture, precipitation, and water vapor on diurnal temperature range,
J. Climate, 12, 2451–2473,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012{<}2451:EOCSMP{>}2.0.CO;2, 1999.
De Bono, A., Peduzzi, P., Kluser, S., and Giuliani, G.: Impacts of summer
2003 heat wave in Europe, available at:
https://www.unisdr.org/files/1145_ewheatwave.en.pdf (last access: 8 July 2020),
2004.
Dessler, A. E.: A determination of the cloud feedback from climate
variations over the past decade, Science, 330, 1523–1527,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1192546, 2010.
Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M.-A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., and Benshila, R.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: From CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2123–2165,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1, 2013.
Fischer, E. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.: Soil moisture–atmosphere interactions during the 2003
European summer heat wave, J. Climate, 20, 5081–5099,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4288.1, 2007.
Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S.-C., Collins, W., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C.,
Gleckler, P., Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C., and
Rummukainen, M.: Evaluation of climate
models, in: Climate change 2013 – the physical science basis: Working group
i contribution to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panle on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, 741–866, 2013.
Gent, P. R., Danabasoglu, G., Donner, L. J., Holland, M. M., Hunke, E. C.,
Jayne, S. R., Lawrence, D. M., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P. J., and
Vertenstein, M.: The Community Climate System Model version 4,
J. Climate, 24, 4973–4991, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1, 2011.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Lacis, A., Koch, D., Tegen, I
Hall, T., Shindell, D., Santer, B., Stone, P., Novakov, T., Thomason, L., Wang, R., Wang, Y., Jacob, D., Hollandsworth, S., Bishop, L., Logan, J.,
Thompson, A., Stolarski, R., Willson, R., Levitus, S., Antonov, J., Rayner, N., Parker, D., and
Christy, J.: Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI 2000
simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 107, D18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001143, 2002.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Nazarenko, L., Lacis, A., Schmidt, G. A.,
Russell, G., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S., Bell, N., Cairns, B., Canuto, V., Chandler, M., Cheng, Y., Del Genio, A., Faluvegi, G., Fleming, E., Friend, A., Hall, T., Jackman, C., Kelley, M., Kiang, N., Koch, D., Lean, J.,
Lerner, J., Lo, K., Menon, S., Miller, R., Minnis, P., Novakov, T., Oinas, V., Perlwitz, Ja., Perlwitz, Ju., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Shindell, D., Stone, P., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Thresher, D., Wielicki, B., Wong, T., Yao, M., and
Zhang, S.: Efficacy of climate
forcings, J. Geophy. Res.-Atmos., 110, D18,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005776, 2005.
Harrison, E. F., Minnis, P., Barkstrom, B. R., Ramanathan, V., Cess, R. D., and Gibson, G. G.: Seasonal-variation of cloud radiative forcing
derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
95, D11, 18687–18703,
https://doi.org/10.1029/JD095iD11p18687, 1990.
Hurrell, J. W., Holland, M. M., Gent, P. R., Ghan, S., Kay, J. E., Kushner, P. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Large, W. G., Lawrence, D., and
Lindsay, K.: The Community Earth System Model: A framework for
collaborative research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1339–1360, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1, 2013.
Iversen, T., Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Debernard, J. B., Kirkevåg, A., Seland,
Ø., Drange, H., Kristjansson, J. E., Medhaug, I., Sand, M., and Seierstad, I. A.: The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 389–415, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-389-2013, 2013.
Kay, J., Deser, C., Phillips, A., Mai, A., Hannay, C., Strand, G., Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S. C., Danabasoglu, G., and Edwards, J.: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project:
A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal
climate variability, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
96, 1333–1349, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1, 2015.
Kirkevåg, A., Iversen, T., Seland, Ø., Hoose, C., Kristjánsson, J. E.,
Struthers, H., Ekman, A. M. L., Ghan, S., Griesfeller, J., Nilsson, E. D., and
Schulz, M.: Aerosol–climate interactions in the Norwegian Earth System Model
– NorESM1-M, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 207–244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-207-2013, 2013.
Kjellstrom, T., Freyberg, C., Lemke, B., Otto, M., and Briggs, D.:
Estimating population heat exposure and impacts on working people in
conjunction with climate change, Int. J. Biometeorol., 62, 291–306,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1407-0, 2018.
Koch, D. and Del Genio, A. D.: Black carbon semi-direct effects on cloud cover: review and synthesis, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7685–7696, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7685-2010, 2010.
Liu, L., Shawki, D., Voulgarakis, A., Kasoar, M., Samset, B. H., Myhre, G.,
Forster, P. M., Hodnebrog, Ø., Sillmann, J., Aalbergsjø, S. G., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Olivié, D., Richardson, T., Shindell, D., and Takemura, T.: A PDRMIP multimodel study on the impacts of regional aerosol
forcings on global and regional precipitation, J. Climate, 31, 4429–4447,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0439.1, 2018.
Lohmann, U. and Feichter, J.: Global indirect aerosol effects: a review, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 715–737, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-715-2005, 2005.
Mahajan, S., Evans, K. J., Hack, J. J., and Truesdale, J. E.:
Linearity of climate response to increases in black carbon aerosols,
J. Climate, 26, 8223–8237, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00715.1, 2013.
Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., and Collins, W. D.: Effects of black
carbon aerosols on the indian monsoon, J. Climate, 21, 2869–2882,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1777.1, 2008.
Menon, S., Hansen, J., Nazarenko, L., and Luo, Y.: Climate effects
of black carbon aerosols in China and India, Science, 297, 2250–2253,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1075159, 2002.
Myers, T. A. and Norris, J. R.: Observational evidence that
enhanced subsidence reduces subtropical marine boundary layer cloudiness,
J. Climate, 26, 7507–7524, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00736.1, 2013.
Myers, T. A., Mechoso, C. R., Cesana, G. V., DeFlorio, M. J., and Waliser, D. E.: Cloud feedback key to marine heatwave off Baja California,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 4345–4352, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078242, 2018.
Myhre, G., Samset, B. H., Schulz, M., Balkanski, Y., Bauer, S., Berntsen, T. K., Bian, H., Bellouin, N., Chin, M., Diehl, T., Easter, R. C., Feichter, J., Ghan, S. J., Hauglustaine, D., Iversen, T., Kinne, S., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Lin, G., Liu, X., Lund, M. T., Luo, G., Ma, X., van Noije, T., Penner, J. E., Rasch, P. J., Ruiz, A., Seland, Ø., Skeie, R. B., Stier, P., Takemura, T., Tsigaridis, K., Wang, P., Wang, Z., Xu, L., Yu, H., Yu, F., Yoon, J.-H., Zhang, K., Zhang, H., and Zhou, C.: Radiative forcing of the direct aerosol effect from AeroCom Phase II simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1853–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1853-2013, 2013a.
Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Bréon, F.-M., Collins, W., Fuglestvedt, J.,
Huang, J., Koch, D., Lamarque, J.-F., Lee, D., Mendoza, B., Nakajima, T.,
Robock, A., Stephens, G., Takemura, T., and
Zhang, H.: Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing. in: Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group i to the
fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stoker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K.,
Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V.,
and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, 659–740, 2013b.
Myhre, G., Forster, P., Samset, B., Hodnebrog, Ø., Sillmann, J.,
Aalbergsjø, S., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Iversen, T., Kasoar, M., Kharin, V., Kirkeväg, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Olivié, D., Richardson, T. B., Shindell, D., Shine, K., Stjern, C., Takemura, T.,
Voulgarakis, A., and Zwiers, F.: PDRMIP: A Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project, protocol and preliminary results,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1185–1198, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0019.1,
2017.
Neale, R. B., Richter, J. H., Conley, A. J., Park, S., Lauritzen, P. H.,
Gettelman, A., Williamson, D. L., Rasch, P. J., Vavrus, S. J., Taylor, M. A., Collins, W. D., Zhang, M., and Lin, S.-J.:
Description of the NCAR community Atmosphere Model (CAM 4.0), available at Boulder, CO, USA:
https://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/models/ccsm4.0/cam/docs/description/cam4_desc.pdf (last access: 8 July 2020), 2010.
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Fasullo, J., Jahn, A., Landrum, L.,
Stevenson, S., Rosenbloom, N., Mai, A., and Strand, G.: Climate variability and change since 850 CE: An ensemble approach with the Community Earth System Model, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 735–754,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1, 2016.
Paaijmans, K. P., Blanford, S., Bell, A. S., Blanford, J. I., Read, A. F., and Thomas, M. B.: Influence of climate on malaria transmission
depends on daily temperature variation, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
107, 15135, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1006422107, 2010.
Philipona, R., Behrens, K., and Ruckstuhl, C.: How declining
aerosols and rising greenhouse gases forced rapid warming in Europe since
the 1980s, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L02806, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036350,
2009.
Ramanathan, V., Cess, R. D., Harrison, E. F., Minnis, P., Barkstrom, B. R.,
Ahmad, E., and Hartmann, D.: Cloud-radiative forcing and climate: Results from
the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, Science, 243, 57–63,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.243.4887.57, 1989.
Robine, J.-M., Cheung, S. L. K., Le Roy, S., Van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C.,
Michel, J.-P., and Herrmann, F. R.: Death toll exceeded 70 000 in Europe during
the summer of 2003, C. R. Biol., 331,
171–178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001, 2008.
Rowell, D. P. and Jones, R. G.: Causes and uncertainty of future
summer drying over Europe, Clim. Dynam., 27, 281–299,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0125-9, 2006.
Ruckstuhl, C., Philipona, R., Behrens, K., Collaud Coen, M., Dürr, B.,
Heimo, A., Mätzler, C., Nyeki, S., Ohmura, A., Vuilleumier, L., Weller, M.,
Wehrli, C., and Zelenka, A.: Aerosol and cloud effects on solar brightening and
the recent rapid warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12708,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034228, 2008.
Samset, B. H. and Myhre, G.: Climate response to externally mixed
black carbon as a function of altitude, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 2913–2927,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022849, 2015.
Samset, B., Myhre, G., Forster, P., Hodnebrog, Ø., Andrews, T., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Kasoar, M., Kharin, V., Kirkevåg, A.,
Lamarque, J.-F., Olivié, D., Richardson, T., Shindell, D., Shine, K. P.,
Takemura, T., and
Voulgarakis, A.: Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual
climate forcers: A PDRMIP multimodel study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2782–2791,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068064, 2016.
Schär, C., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C.,
Liniger, M. A., and Appenzeller, Christof: The role of increasing temperature
variability in European summer heatwaves, Nature, 427, 332–336,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02300, 2004.
Schmidt, G. A., Kelley, M., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L.,
Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S. E., Bhat, M. K., and Bleck, R.: Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2
contributions to the CMIP5 archive, J. Adv. Model.
Earth Sy., 6, 141–184, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000265, 2014.
Seidel, D. J., Fu, Q., Randel, W. J., and Reichler, T. J.: Widening
of the tropical belt in a changing climate, Nat. Geosci., 1, 21–24,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo.2007.38, 2008.
Seneviratne, S. I., Luthi, D., Litschi, M., and Schar, C.:
Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe, Nature, 443, 205–209,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05095, 2006.
Seneviratne, S. I., Donat, M. G., Mueller, B., and Alexander, L. V.:
No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 161,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2145, 2014.
Shindell, D. and Faluvegi, G.: Climate response to regional
radiative forcing during the twentieth century, Nat. Geosci., 2, 294–300,
https://doi.org/10.1038/Ngeo473, 2009.
Sillmann, J., Pozzoli, L., Vignati, E., Kloster, S., and Feichter, J.:
Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future
scenarios, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2290–2295,
https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50459, 2013.
Smith, S. J., van Aardenne, J., Klimont, Z., Andres, R. J., Volke, A., and Delgado Arias, S.: Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions: 1850–2005, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1101–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1101-2011, 2011.
Stjern, C. W., Samset, B. H., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Hodnebrog, O.,
Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Iversen, T., Kasoar, M., Kharin, V.,
Kirkevag, A., Lamarque, J. F., Olivie, D., Richardson, T., Shawki, D.,
Shindell, D., Smith, C. J., Takemura, T., ad Voulgarakis, A.: Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature
response to increased black carbon concentrations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 11462–11481,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jd027326, 2017.
Takemura, T., Nozawa, T., Emori, S., Nakajima, T. Y., and Nakajima, T.:
Simulation of climate response to aerosol direct and indirect
effects with aerosol transport-radiation model,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D2,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005029, 2005.
Takemura, T., Egashira, M., Matsuzawa, K., Ichijo, H., O'ishi, R., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: A simulation of the global distribution and radiative forcing of soil dust aerosols at the Last Glacial Maximum, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 3061–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-3061-2009, 2009.
Tang, Q. and Leng, G.: Damped summer warming accompanied with cloud
cover increase over Eurasia from 1982 to 2009, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 014004,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014004, 2012.
Tang, T., Shindell, D., Samset, B. H., Boucher, O., Forster, P. M., Hodnebrog, Ø., Myhre, G., Sillmann, J., Voulgarakis, A., Andrews, T., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Iversen, T., Kasoar, M., Kharin, V., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Olivié, D., Richardson, T., Stjern, C. W., and Takemura, T.: Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8439–8452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, 2018.
Tang, T., Shindell, D., Faluvegi, G., Myhre, G., Olivié, D.,
Voulgarakis, A., Kasoar, M., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Forster, P. M.,
Hodnebrog, Ø., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J. F., Richardson, T.,
Samset, B. H., Stjern, C. W., Takemura, T., and
Smith, C.: Comparison of effective radiative forcing
calculations using multiple methods, drivers, and models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 4382–4394,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030188, 2019.
Turner, A. G. and Annamalai, H.: Climate change and the South Asian
summer monsoon, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 587–595,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1495, 2012.
Vasseur David, A., DeLong John, P., Gilbert, B., Greig, H. S., Harley, D. G., McCann, K. S., Savage, V.,
Tunney, T. D., and O'Connor, M. I.: Increased temperature
variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming, P. Roy. Soc B 281,
20132612, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.2612, 2014.
Vautard, R., Yiou, P., D'Andrea, F., de Noblet, N., Viovy, N., Cassou, C.,
Polcher, J., Ciais, P., Kageyama, M., and Fan, Y.: Summertime European heat and drought waves induced by
wintertime Mediterranean rainfall deficit, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
34, L07711, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028001, 2007.
Walters, D. N., Williams, K. D., Boutle, I. A., Bushell, A. C., Edwards, J. M., Field, P. R., Lock, A. P., Morcrette, C. J., Stratton, R. A., Wilkinson, J. M., Willett, M. R., Bellouin, N., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Brooks, M. E., Copsey, D., Earnshaw, P. D., Hardiman, S. C., Harris, C. M., Levine, R. C., MacLachlan, C., Manners, J. C., Martin, G. M., Milton, S. F., Palmer, M. D., Roberts, M. J., Rodríguez, J. M., Tennant, W. J., and Vidale, P. L.: The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 4.0 and JULES Global Land 4.0 configurations, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 361–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014, 2014.
Wang, C.: Impact of direct radiative forcing of black carbon aerosols
on tropical convective precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05709,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028416, 2007.
Wang, G. and Dillon, M. E.: Recent geographic convergence in
diurnal and annual temperature cycling flattens global thermal profiles,
Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 988–992,
https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate2378, 2014.
Watanabe, M., Suzuki, T., O'ishi, R., Komuro, Y., Watanabe, S., Emori, S.,
Takemura, T., Chikira, M., Ogura, T., and
Sekiguchi, M.: Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: Mean states,
variability, and climate sensitivity, J. Climate, 23, 6312–6335,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3679.1, 2010.
Wetherald, R. T. and Manabe, S.: The mechanisms of summer dryness
induced by greenhouse warming, J. Climate, 8, 3096–3108,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008{<}3096:TMOSDI{>}2.0.CO;2, 1995.
Wild, M., Ohmura, A., Gilgen, H., and Rosenfeld, D.: On the
consistency of trends in radiation and temperature records and implications
for the global hydrological cycle, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019188, 2004.
Williams, K. D., Jones, A., Roberts, D. L., Senior, C. A., and Woodage, M. J.: The response of the climate system to the indirect effects of
anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, Clim. Dynam., 17,
845–856, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820100150, 2001.
Wood, R. and Bretherton, C. S.: On the relationship between
stratiform low cloud cover and lower-tropospheric stability, J. Climate, 19,
6425–6432, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3988.1, 2006.
Xu, Y. Y., Lamarque, J. F., and Sanderson, B. M.: The importance of
aerosol scenarios in projections of future heat extremes, Climatic Change, 146, 393–406,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1565-1, 2018.
Zampieri, M., D'Andrea, F., Vautard, R., Ciais, P., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., and Yiou, P.: Hot European summers and the role of soil moisture
in the propagation of Mediterranean drought, J. Climate, 22, 4747–4758,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2568.1, 2009.
Zelinka, M. D., Randall, D. A., Webb, M. J., and Klein, S. A.:
Clearing clouds of uncertainty, Nat. Clim. Change, 7,
674–678, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3402, 2017.
Zhai, C. X., Jiang, J. H., and Su, H.: Long-term cloud change
imprinted in seasonal cloud variation: More evidence of high climate
sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 8729–8737,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl065911, 2015.
Zhou, C., Zelinka, M. D., and Klein, S. A.: Impact of decadal cloud
variations on the earth's energy budget, Nat. Geosci., 9, 871,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2828, 2016.
Short summary
By using climate simulations, we found that both CO2 and black carbon aerosols could reduce low-level cloud cover, which is mainly due to changes in relative humidity, cloud water, dynamics, and stability. Because the impact of cloud on solar radiation is in effect only during daytime, such cloud reduction could enhance solar heating, thereby raising the daily maximum temperature by 10–50 %, varying by region, which has great implications for extreme climate events and socioeconomic activity.
By using climate simulations, we found that both CO2 and black carbon aerosols could reduce...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint