Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018
Research article
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06 Feb 2018
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 06 Feb 2018

Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery

William T. Ball, Justin Alsing, Daniel J. Mortlock, Johannes Staehelin, Joanna D. Haigh, Thomas Peter, Fiona Tummon, Rene Stübi, Andrea Stenke, John Anderson, Adam Bourassa, Sean M. Davis, Doug Degenstein, Stacey Frith, Lucien Froidevaux, Chris Roth, Viktoria Sofieva, Ray Wang, Jeannette Wild, Pengfei Yu, Jerald R. Ziemke, and Eugene V. Rozanov

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Cited articles

Alsing, J. and Ball, W. T.: BASIC-SG (Merged-SWOOSH-GOZCARDS) for “Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery”, https://doi.org/10.17632/2mgx2xzzpk.1, 2017.
Ball, W. T., Haigh, J. D., Rozanov, E. V., Kuchar, A., Sukhodolov, T., Tummon, F., Shapiro, A. V., and Schmutz, W.: High solar cycle spectral variations inconsistent with stratospheric ozone observations, Nat. Geosci., 9, 206–209, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2640, 2016.
Ball, W. T., Alsing, J., Mortlock, D. J., Rozanov, E. V., Tummon, F., and Haigh, J. D.: Reconciling differences in stratospheric ozone composites, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12269–12302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12269-2017, 2017.
Bandoro, J., Solomon, S., Santer, B. D., Kinnison, D. E., and Mills, M. J.: Detectability of the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases upon stratospheric ozone accounting for nonlinearities in historical forcings, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 143–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-143-2018, 2018.
Bourassa, A. E., Degenstein, D. A., Randel, W. J., Zawodny, J. M., Kyrölä, E., McLinden, C. A., Sioris, C. E., and Roth, C. Z.: Trends in stratospheric ozone derived from merged SAGE II and Odin-OSIRIS satellite observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6983–6994, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6983-2014, 2014.
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Short summary
Using a robust analysis, with artefact-corrected ozone data, we confirm upper stratospheric ozone is recovering following the Montreal Protocol, but that lower stratospheric ozone (50° S–50° N) has continued to decrease since 1998, and the ozone layer as a whole (60° S–60° N) may be lower today than in 1998. No change in total column ozone may be due to increasing tropospheric ozone. State-of-the-art models do not reproduce lower stratospheric ozone decreases.
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