A perturbed parameter model ensemble to investigate Mt. Pinatubo's 1991 initial sulfur mass emission
J.-X. Sheng1,a,D. K. Weisenstein2,B.-P. Luo1,E. Rozanov1,3,F. Arfeuille4,b,and T. Peter1J.-X. Sheng et al. J.-X. Sheng1,a,D. K. Weisenstein2,B.-P. Luo1,E. Rozanov1,3,F. Arfeuille4,b,and T. Peter1
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
2School of Engineering and Applied Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
3Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
4Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
anow at: School of Engineering and Applied Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
bnow at: Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research, Dübendorf, Switzerland
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
2School of Engineering and Applied Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
3Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
4Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
anow at: School of Engineering and Applied Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
bnow at: Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research, Dübendorf, Switzerland
Received: 08 Dec 2014 – Discussion started: 18 Feb 2015 – Revised: 28 Sep 2015 – Accepted: 30 Sep 2015 – Published: 19 Oct 2015
Abstract. We have performed more than 300 atmospheric simulations of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption using the AER 2-D sulfate aerosol model to optimize the initial sulfur mass injection as a function of altitude, which in previous modeling studies has often been chosen in an ad hoc manner (e.g., by applying a rectangular-shaped emission profile). Our simulations are generated by varying a four-parameter vertical mass distribution, which is determined by a total injection mass and a skew-normal distribution function. Our results suggest that (a) the initial mass loading of the Pinatubo eruption is approximately 14 Mt of SO2; (b) the injection vertical distribution is strongly skewed towards the lower stratosphere, leading to a peak mass sulfur injection at 18–21 km; (c) the injection magnitude and height affect early southward transport of the volcanic clouds as observed by SAGE II.
We have conducted a perturbed parameter model ensemble to investigate Mt.
Pinatubo's 1991 initial sulfur mass emission. Our results suggest that (a) the initial mass loading of the Pinatubo eruption is ~14 Mt of SO2; (b) the injection vertical distribution is strongly skewed towards the lower stratosphere, leading to a peak mass sulfur injection at 18-21 km; (c) the injection magnitude and height affect early southward transport of the volcanic cloud observed by SAGE II.
We have conducted a perturbed parameter model ensemble to investigate Mt.
Pinatubo's 1991...
