Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review article
| 
31 Jan 2017
Review article |
| 31 Jan 2017
Introduction to the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) and overview of the reanalysis systems
Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
Jonathon S. Wright
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
Gloria L. Manney
NorthWest Research Associates, Socorro, NM 87801, USA
Department of Physics, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM 87801, USA
Lesley J. Gray
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3PU, UK
NERC National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
James Anstey
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, V8W 2Y2, Canada
Thomas Birner
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
Sean Davis
Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Edwin P. Gerber
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, NY 10012, USA
V. Lynn Harvey
Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303, USA
Michaela I. Hegglin
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
Cameron R. Homeyer
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73072, USA
John A. Knox
Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
Kirstin Krüger
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, 0315 Oslo, Norway
Alyn Lambert
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA
Craig S. Long
Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Patrick Martineau
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, CA 90095, USA
Andrea Molod
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Code 610.1, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
Michelle L. Santee
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA
Susann Tegtmeier
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24105 Kiel, Germany
Simon Chabrillat
Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), 1180 Brussels, Belgium
David G. H. Tan
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
David R. Jackson
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Saroja Polavarapu
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, M3H 5T4, Canada
Gilbert P. Compo
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Physical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Rossana Dragani
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
Wesley Ebisuzaki
Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Yayoi Harada
Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, 100-8122, Japan
Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, JMA, Tsukuba, 305-0052, Japan
Chiaki Kobayashi
Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, JMA, Tsukuba, 305-0052, Japan
Will McCarty
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Code 610.1, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Kazutoshi Onogi
Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, 100-8122, Japan
Steven Pawson
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Code 610.1, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Adrian Simmons
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
Krzysztof Wargan
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Code 610.1, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Science Systems and Applications Inc., Lanham, MD 20706, USA
Jeffrey S. Whitaker
Physical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Cheng-Zhi Zou
Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, MD 20740, USA
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Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, James A. Anstey, Ewa Bednarz, Dillon Elsbury, Jorge L. García-Franco, Vinay Kumar, Froila M. Palmeiro, Natasha E. Trencham, Kohei Yoshida, Zhaoyang Chai, Dong-Chan Hong, Kai Huang, Aleena M. Jaison, Yoshio Kawatani, Jeff R. Knight, Pu Lin, François Lott, Yixiong Lu, Hiroaki Naoe, Scott M. Osprey, Jadwiga H. Richter, Federico Serva, Seok-Woo Son, Qi Tang, Shingo Watanabe, and Jinbo Xie
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Florian Voet, Felix Ploeger, Johannes C. Laube, Laura N. Saunders, Patrick E. Sheese, Attahir Mainika, Peter Preusse, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Kaley A. Walker, Susann Tegtmeier, and Michaela Imelda Hegglin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4647, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4647, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Chloe Mackallah, Martin Juckes, James Anstey, Beth Dingley, Charlotte Pascoe, Gaëlle Rigoudy, Marie-Pierre Moine, Tomas Lovato, Alison Pamment, Martin Schupfner, Michio Kawamiya, Tommi Bergman, Charles Koven, Eleanor O'Rourke, Briony Turner, Daniel Ellis, and Matthew Mizielinski
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5137, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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Laura N. Saunders, Kaley A. Walker, Gabriele P. Stiller, Piera Raspollini, Luis F. Millán, Marco Gai, Chris D. Boone, John Gille, Norbert Glatthor, Armin Kleinboehl, Anne Kleinert, Alyn Lambert, Donal Murtaugh, Patrick E. Sheese, Geoffrey C. Toon, and Gerald Wetzel
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Ewa M. Bednarz, Valentina Aquila, Amy H. Butler, Peter Colarco, Eric Fleming, Freja F. Østerstrøm, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Michelle L. Santee, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, Yunqian Zhu, and Zhihong Zhuo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 11355–11370, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-11355-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-11355-2026, 2026
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The 2022 Hunga eruption injected unprecedented quantities of water vapor into the stratosphere, alongside modest amounts of aerosol precursors. We assess its impacts on stratospheric ozone layer using a multi-model ensemble of chemistry-climate simulations. The results confirm the eruption's role in modulating SH (Southern Hemisphere) mid and high latitudes ozone abundances in the short term, and discuss the different chemical and dynamical processes driving those changes as well as the role of natural variability.
Kimberlee Dubé, William Randel, Adam Bourassa, Susann Tegtmeier, Xinyue Wang, Jun Zhang, Eilidh Hlady, Meghan Brehon, Sergey Khaykin, and Douglas Degenstein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4022, 2026
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The Hunga volcanic eruption in January 2022 increased the total stratospheric water vapor (H2O) mass by 10 %. The study uses satellite observations and models to track the transport of the Hunga H2O. We find that there is substantially more H2O in the observations than the model during 2024 and 2025, suggesting that the modelled transport across the lower stratosphere is too fast. We also find evidence that some of the H2O that reaches the lower stratosphere is mixed back into the tropics.
Patrick Martineau, Hidehiro Fujio, Ingo Richter, Ayako Yamamoto, and Masami Nonaka
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-434, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-434, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The Weather Extremes Archive (WEXA) provides global data on persistent heat waves and cold spells from 1979 to the present. Events are defined using temperature thresholds that vary by season and location. The dataset tracks the movement, size, and intensity of these events over time and is publicly available for analysis.
Isaac Moradi, Ricardo Todling, Yanqiu Zhu, Benjamin Ruston, Benjamin Johnson, Yannick Tremolet, Dorukhan Ardag, Wei Gu, and Steven Pawson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4086, 2026
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This study presents a new capability for assimilating spaceborne radar observations into NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) using the JEDI data assimilation framework. The implementation includes a radar forward operator and associated assimilation components, demonstrated with GPM Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) observations. Results show improved analyses of precipitation, hydrometeors, and atmospheric state variables, supporting enhanced weather forecasts and reanalyses.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, David Avisar, Wenjuan Huo, Ales Kuchar, Shoshiro Minobe, Scott Osprey, Katharina Perny, and Jonathon S. Wright
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3738, 2026
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Whether tropical volcanic eruptions lead to a circulation response in winter is still unclear. We re-evaluate this effect using large ensembles from eight separate models with only one time-varying external forcing: volcanic aerosols. We find that 75 % of models simulate the previously proposed effect, but that the signal requires at least 30 eruptions before it emerges robustly from the noise. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the El Niño signal differs from natural El Niño events.
Aleena M. Jaison, Lesley J. Gray, Scott M. Osprey, James A. Anstey, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Zhaoyang Chai, Dong-Chan Hong, Kai Huang, Yoshio Kawatani, Jeff R. Knight, Pu Lin, Francois Lott, Yixiong Lu, Hiroaki Naoe, Jadwiga H. Richter, Nan Rosenbloom, Federico Serva, Anne K. Smith, Seok-Woo Son, Qi Tang, Shingo Watanabe, Jinbo Xie, and Kohei Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4135, 2026
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The tropical upper stratosphere has winds that switch between westerly and easterly every six months known as the semi-annual oscillation (SAO). Climate models commonly show an easterly bias in the SAO. We analysed data from many models to test if correcting the biases in winds lower in the stratosphere could improve SAO. We find correcting the lower-level wind biases reduces the SAO easterly bias, though further improvements, such as better representation of atmospheric waves, are still needed.
Cameron R. Homeyer and Emily N. Tinney
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3889, 2026
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This study examines changes in the characteristics of the transition layer between the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere, the troposphere, and the layer immediately above – the stratosphere, known as the "tropopause". During the most recent 23-year period, we find that tropopause altitude, temperature, sharpness, and multiplicity are increasing over time in most locations, though the magnitude and significance varies globally and between characteristics.
Kai Huang, Chang-Hyun Park, Seung-Yoon Back, Jorge L. García-Franco, Hera Kim, Pu Lin, Scott Osprey, Jadwiga Richter, Chih-Chieh Chen, Seok-Woo Son, Shigeo Yoden, Yuna Lim, Neal Butchart, James Anstey, Yoshio Kawatani, Martin B. Andrews, Francois Lott, Yixiong Lu, Zhaoyang Chai, Nan Rosenbloom, Qi Tang, Jinbo Xie, Federico Serva, Dong-Chan Hong, Shingo Watanabe, Aleena M. Jaison, Hiroaki Naoe, and Kohei Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3744, 2026
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The tropical atmosphere has large-scale wind and rainfall patterns shaping weather worldwide. Winds high above the tropics are thought to influence a major tropical rainfall system, but climate models fail to reproduce this link. We tested 12 climate models after constraining their high-altitude winds to match observations. Although the winds then matched, the models failed to capture the tropical response, as they did not realistically simulate it. Improving this is key to better prediction.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, David Avisar, Scott M. Osprey, Doug Smith, Jian Rao, and Jonathon S. Wright
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1133–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1133-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1133-2026, 2026
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The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates variability in the tropical stratosphere, & it impacts surface climate in several parts of the world. However, climate models have been shown to systematically under-estimate the influence of the QBO. Here, we re-evaluate this finding using much larger ensemble sizes than have been previously available based on four separate models. We find that the models are comparatively more successful in capturing QBO influences than reported by previous work.
Luisa E. Avilés-Podgurski, Patrick Martineau, Hua Lu, Ayako Yamamoto, Amanda C. Maycock, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Anna E. Hogg, Grzegorz Muszynski, and Andrew Fleming
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1051–1071, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1051-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1051-2026, 2026
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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow filaments of intense poleward water vapour transport. On rare occasions, they reach the Arctic, driving strong warming and melt. In April 2020, two ARs intruded into the central Arctic within one week, raising near-surface temperatures by up to 30°C and leading to extreme precipitation. Their distinct paths and thermodynamic evolution reveal diverse AR impacts on Arctic sea ice and precipitation extremes.
David Wilmouth, Jennifer Hare, Laila Howar, Ross Salawitch, Eric Hintsa, Jessica Smith, David Sayres, James Anderson, Jason St. Clair, Erin Delaria, Reem Hannun, Thomas Hanisco, Daniel Czizco, Xiaoli Shen, Cameron Homeyer, Michelle Santee, T. Paul Bui, Paul Newman, Frank Keutsch, and Kenneth Bowman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3480, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3480, 2026
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Inorganic chlorine chemistry in the stratosphere is extensively examined over two summers using high precision in situ aircraft data and satellite data. Measured values both agree and enable refinement to current understanding. Chlorine measurements obtained under perturbed stratospheric conditions of enhanced water vapor from convective storms or aged organic aerosol from wildfires do not appear significantly different from chlorine measurements obtained in the background stratosphere.
Daniele Minganti, Simon Chabrillat, Sean Davis, Quentin Errera, Marc Op de beeck, Eric Ray, Sarah Vervalcke, Krzysztof Wargan, and Catherine Wespes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3449, 2026
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In early 2019, an unusual increase of nitrous oxide concentrations occurred in the northern lower stratosphere (around 20 km). We show that unprecedented circulation pattern rapidly moved nitrous oxide from the tropical region to the northern mid-latitudes. This work reveals how stratospheric mid-latitudes can respond to special wind conditions in the Tropics and subtropics. Such extreme event helps improving our understanding of future changes of stratospheric transport in a warming climate.
Evelien J. C. van Dijk, Felix Riede, Claudia Timmreck, Kirstin Krüger, and Michael Sigl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3266, 2026
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We simulate one of the largest eruptions of the Holocene to study the impacts on global climate and society. The simulations reveal severe and diverging climate anomalies in different regions. This likely had significant impact on the main regions of human settlements, with crop failures due to drought, and potential flooding in areas with extreme precipitation. Studying very large eruptions is important for understanding the risks of these events, that the world is ill-prepared for.
Nguyen Doan Thien Chi, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Satoshi Inomata, Kohei Ikeda, Yange Deng, Royston Uning, Tamaki Fujinawa, Astrid Müller, Masatomo Fujiwara, Shungo Kato, and Hisahiro Takashima
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 8275–8294, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-8275-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-8275-2026, 2026
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Pandora ground-based spectrometers have been widely utilized in atmospheric studies, but their application to ozone sensitivity research has been limited. This study demonstrates the use of Pandora observations, in combination with a chemical transport model, to enhance sensitivity analysis. Our findings provide additional insights into atmospheric chemistry, particularly ozone formation processes, using Pandora measurements that are openly available to the global scientific community.
Hyun-Kyu Lee, James A. Anstey, Hye-Yeong Chun, Shingo Watanabe, Francois Lott, Zhaoyang Chai, Yixiong Lu, Qi Tang, Jinbo Xie, Dong-Chan Hong, Seok-Woo Son, Federico Serva, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Aleena M. Jaison, Jeff R. Knight, Scott Osprey, Hiroaki Naoe, Kohei Yoshida, Yoshio Kawatani, and Jadwiga H. Richter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2856, 2026
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This study investigates the systematic biases in equatorial wave forcing of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) by comparing internally generated and bias-corrected experiments using a multi-model ensemble. Although nudging effectively mitigates QBO biases, systematic biases in wave forcing are not fully resolved. The equatorial wave forcing in the lower stratosphere remains weaker than that in reanalyses, while an eastward wave forcing bias is observed in the mid-to-upper stratosphere.
Sheena Loeffel, Philip Rupp, Selina Kiefer, Joaquim G. Pinto, Thomas Birner, and Hella Garny
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 895–913, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-895-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-895-2026, 2026
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We use a dedicated simulation setup to shed light on the question whether, and why, some sudden stratospheric warming events are more likely than others to develop a surface response. We find that the propensity for downward coupling is unique to each event, and that from day one, the chance of a lower-stratospheric response can be predicted – a key step toward anticipating the surface response, moving beyond 'random' surface outcomes to quantified likelihoods of the ensuing surface response.
Michael D. Himes, Natalya A. Kramarova, Krzysztof Wargan, Sean M. Davis, and Glen Jaross
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 3601–3624, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-3601-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-3601-2026, 2026
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Stratospheric water vapor (SWV) influences various atmospheric processes. While the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS LP) was not designed to measure SWV, we utilized near-coincident measurements by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and OMPS LP to develop a machine learning method to measure SWV between 11.5–40.5 km. The LP-derived SWV closely agrees with MLS. Our results suggest OMPS LP can continue the global water vapor record following the MLS mission.
Monika E. Szelag, Viktoria F. Sofieva, Edward Malina, Pekka T. Verronen, Michelle L. Santee, Manuel López-Puertas, Bernd Funke, Gabriele Stiller, Alexandra Laeng, Kaley A. Walker, Patrick E. Sheese, Mark E. Hervig, and Benjamin T. Marshall
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 7503–7522, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7503-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7503-2026, 2026
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We present a new global dataset of ozone profiles in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, created by combining several satellite measurements covering more than three decades. Our results show that ozone is recovering in the stratosphere but decreasing in the mesosphere, with the strongest declines near the mesopause. This dataset provides a valuable resource for investigating long-term changes, improving model performance, and addressing an observational gap in the upper atmosphere.
Viktoria F. Sofieva, Monika E. Szelag, Natalya A. Kramarova, Robert Damadeo, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Corinne Vigouroux, Eliane Maillard Barras, Daniel Zawada, Kleareti Tourpali, Stacey M. Frith, Jeannette D. Wild, Sean M. Davis, Carlo Arosio, Mark Weber, Alexei Rozanov, Brian Auffarth, Lucien Froidevaux, Ryan Fuller, Doug Degenstein, Kimberlee Dube, Peter Effertz, Thierry Leblanc, Gérard Ancellet, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Glen McConville, Richard Querel, Dan Smale, Marie-Renee DeBacker, Emmanuel Mahieu, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 7387–7405, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7387-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7387-2026, 2026
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We present an updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60°S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. Analyses confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3 % decade-1. The trends are close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant.
Philip Rupp, Jonas Spaeth, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 767–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-767-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-767-2026, 2026
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Weather forecasts several weeks ahead are uncertain, but this uncertainty itself can change depending on large-scale atmospheric conditions. We present a new way to measure how well forecasts capture these changes in uncertainty. Our results show that reliability of uncertainty varies strongly with region and is linked to slow, predictable patterns in the atmosphere. These findings help identify periods when forecasts are more trustworthy.
Anna Borovikov, Andrea Molod, Young-Kwon Lim, Siegfried Schubert, and Priyanka Yadav
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1340, 2026
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Short term climate (subseasonal to seasonal) forecasts rely on a collection ("ensemble") of forecasts that are meant to span likely estimates of the evolution of the earth system. We present a strategy for generating ensembles that uses perturbed initial conditions of the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. We show that the perturbations consist of physically realistic atmosphere and ocean modes of variability that are highly relevant for spanning the likely estimates of the future.
Mian Chin, Jonathon S. Wright, Huisheng Bian, Qian Tan, Xiaohua Pan, Toshihiko Takemura, Hitoshi Matsui, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne Bauer, Paul Ginoux, Yiran Peng, Zengyuan Guo, Suvarna Fadnavis, Anton Laakso, John P. Burrows, Ghassan Taha, Jayanta Kar, Alexei Rozanov, Carlo Arosio, Landon Rieger, and Adam Bourassa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 6035–6059, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6035-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6035-2026, 2026
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Aerosols in the upper troposphere influence weather and climate. The Asian summer monsoon efficiently transports surface pollutants upward, shaping aerosol amounts and variability in the upper troposphere. Using multiple global models, this study finds a summertime increase in upper-tropospheric aerosols at 1.2 % per year from 2000 to 2018 over Asia, consistent with rising pollutant emissions in Asia, while year-to-year changes are mainly driven by climate variability affecting monsoon dynamics.
James A. Anstey, Neal Butchart, Scott Osprey, Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Jadwiga H. Richter, Tim Stockdale, Martin B. Andrews, Zhaoyang Chai, Paolo Davini, Dong-Chan Hong, Kai Huang, Aleena M. Jaison, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Jeff R. Knight, Pu Lin, Francois Lott, Yixiong Lu, Hiroaki Naoe, Federico Serva, Isla Simpson, Seok-Woo Son, Qi Tang, Shingo Watanabe, Jinbo Xie, and Kohei Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1165, 2026
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We describe experiments where modelled tropical stratosphere winds are adjusted by "nudging" them toward realistic time-evolving eastward and westward Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) winds. The effects of this bias correction on other atmospheric processes, such as the stratospheric polar vortex or tropical waves that force the QBO, can then be assessed. We describe details of the experiments, the multi-model ensemble that has performed them, and basic validation of the nudging response.
Marta Abalos, Thomas Birner, Andreas Chrysanthou, Sean Davis, Alvaro de la Cámara, Sandip Dhomse, Hella Garny, Michaela I. Hegglin, Daan Hubert, Oksana Ivaniha, James Keeble, Marianna Linz, Daniele Minganti, Jessica Neu, David Plummer, Laura Saunders, Kasturi Shah, Gabriele Stiller, Kleareti Tourpali, Darryn Waugh, Nathan Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Marion Marchand, Patrick Martineau, Olaf Morgenstern, Timofei Sukhodolov, Shingo Watanabe, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 5249–5291, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5249-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5249-2026, 2026
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Accurate representation of stratospheric transport in Chemistry-Climate Models is essential for reliable climate projections. This study evaluates three generations of models using observational data and reanalyses, identifying persistent biases and their potential causes. Some biases persist or even worsen in newer models. These findings highlight key limitations and inform efforts to improve models and advance understanding through process-based studies and enhanced observations.
Beth Dingley, James A. Anstey, Marta Abalos, Carsten Abraham, Tommi Bergman, Lisa Bock, Sonya Fiddes, Birgit Hassler, Ryan J. Kramer, Fei Luo, Fiona M. O'Connor, Petr Šácha, Isla R. Simpson, Laura J. Wilcox, and Mark D. Zelinka
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2945–2984, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2945-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2945-2026, 2026
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This manuscript defines as a list of variables and scientific opportunities which are requested from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) Assessment Fast Track to address open atmospheric science questions. The list reflects the output of a large public community engagement effort, coordinated across autumn 2025 through to summer 2025.
Meghan Brehon, Susann Tegtmeier, Adam Bourassa, Sean M. Davis, Udo Grabowski, Tobias Kerzenmacher, and Gabriele Stiller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 3743–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3743-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3743-2026, 2026
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We used observations of water vapour to estimate vertical transport rates in the tropical stratosphere for 1995-2020 and analyze stratospheric variability. Our results find good agreement between our observation-based estimates and reanalysis upwelling and reveal that the variability is mainly driven by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with a clear signal in the upwelling time series coinciding with the recent QBO disruptions of 2015/16 and 2019/20.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Amy H. Butler, Peter Hitchcock, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zac D. Lawrence, Wuhan Ning, Philip Rupp, Zheng Wu, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Martin Jucker, Gerbrand Koren, Daniel De Maeseneire, Gloria L. Manney, Marisol Osman, Masakazu Taguchi, Cory Barton, Dong-Chan Hong, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Hera Kim, Jeff Knight, Piero Malguzzi, Daniele Mastrangelo, Jiyoung Oh, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Isla R. Simpson, Seok-Woo Son, Damien Specq, and Tim Stockdale
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 411–437, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-411-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-411-2026, 2026
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Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are known to follow a sustained wave dissipation in the stratosphere, which depends on both the tropospheric and stratospheric states. However, the relative role of each state is still unclear. Using a new set of subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, we show that the stratospheric state does not drastically affect the precursors of three recent SSWs, but modulates the stratospheric wave activity, with impacts depending on SSW features.
Robert J. D. Spurr, Matt Christi, Nickolay A. Krotkov, Won-Ei Choi, Simon Carn, Can Li, Natalya Kramarova, David Haffner, Eun-Su Yang, Nick Gorkavyi, Alexander Vasilkov, Krzysztof Wargan, Omar Torres, Diego Loyola, Serena Di Pede, J. Pepijn Veefkind, Parker Case, Thomas Schroeder, and Pawan K. Bhartia
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 993–1021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-993-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-993-2026, 2026
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The submarine eruption of the Hunga volcano released water vapor and sulfur dioxide directly into the stratosphere. The sulfur dioxide formed sulfuric acid aerosols leading to increased scattering of solar ultraviolet radiation (UV), interfering with satellite ozone retrievals. We present a new satellite technique for deriving the amount and height of Hunga aerosols from UV measurements, revealing an unusually low sulfuric acid concentration due to the water-rich conditions in the fresh plume.
Kimberlee Dubé, Adam Bourassa, Susann Tegtmeier, Daniel Zawada, and Douglas Degenstein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 2161–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2161-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2161-2026, 2026
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The stratopause, the boundary between the stratosphere and the mesosphere, is projected to cool and move lower in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We use observations from two satellite instruments to assess the annual and inter-annual variability and to quantify trends in the stratopause temperature and height. We find that the stratopause cooled by ~0.5–1 K per decade and that the tropical stratopause moved lower by 300–475 m per decade during 2005–2021.
Dillon Elsbury, Federico Serva, Julie M. Caron, Seung-Yoon Back, Clara Orbe, Jadwiga H. Richter, James A. Anstey, Neal Butchart, Chih-Chieh Chen, Javier García-Serrano, Anne Glanville, Yoshio Kawatani, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Francois Lott, Hiroaki Naoe, Scott Osprey, Froila M. Palmeiro, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 317–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-317-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-317-2026, 2026
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We used climate models to test how constant El Niño and La Niña ocean conditions shape the Madden-Julian Oscillation during northern winter. El Niño made this weather pattern move faster, while La Niña slowed it down. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, a repeating wind pattern high in the atmosphere, had little effect. This shows that long-lasting ocean conditions mainly drive the changes we found.
Nadia Smith, Michelle L. Santee, and Christopher D. Barnet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 793–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-793-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-793-2026, 2026
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Once Aura is decommissioned, the multi-decadal microwave limb sounder (MLS) record of stratospheric HNO3 will end. This paper presents the retrieval of stratospheric HNO3 from nadir infrared sounders. We demonstrate the retrieval of stratospheric HNO3, independent of tropospheric signal and noise, that broadly reflects the variation captured by MLS. This novel retrieval approach improves upon the status quo and lays the foundation for validation studies and product roll-out in future.
Peter W. Thorne, John M. Nicklas, John J. Kennedy, Bruce Calvert, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Mark T. Richardson, Adrian Simmons, Ed Hawkins, Robert Rhode, Kathryn Cowtan, Nerilie J. Abram, Axel Andersson, Simon Noone, Phillipe Marbaix, Nathan Lenssen, Dirk Olonscheck, Tristram Walsh, Stephen Outten, Ingo Bethke, Bjorn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Anna Pirani, Jan Fuglestvedt, Lavanya Rajamani, Richard A. Betts, Elizabeth C. Kent, Blair Trewin, Colin Morice, Tim Osborn, Samantha N. Burgess, Oliver Geden, Andrew Parnell, Piers M. Forster, Chris Hewitt, Zeke Hausfather, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Jochem Marotzke, Nathan Gillett, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Gavin A. Schmidt, Duo Chan, Stefan Brönnimann, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Menne, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Christopher Kadow, Peter Huybers, David B. Stephenson, Emily Wallis, Joeri Rogelj, Andrew Schurer, Karen McKinnon, Panmao Zhai, Fatima Driouech, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Saeed Vazifehkhah, Sophie Szopa, Christopher J. Merchant, Shoji Hirahara, Masayoshi Ishii, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Qingxiang Li, June-Yi Lee, Alex J. Cannon, Christophe Cassou, Karina von Schuckmann, Amir H. Delju, and Ellie Murtagh
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, 2026
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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We reassess the basis for determining the present level of long-term global warming. Unbiased estimates of both realised warming and anthropogenic warming are possible that approximate a 20-year retrospective mean. Our resulting estimates of 1.40 [1.23–1.58] °C (realised) and 1.34 [1.18–1.50] °C (anthropogenic) as at end of 2024 highlight the urgency of immediate, far-reaching and sustained climate mitigation actions if we are to meet the long term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
Norbert Glatthor, Thomas von Clarmann, Udo Grabowski, Sylvia Kellmann, Michael Kiefer, Alexandra Laeng, Andrea Linden, Gabriele P. Stiller, Bernd Funke, Maya García-Comas, Manuel López-Puertas, Oliver Kirner, and Michelle L. Santee
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 629–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-629-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-629-2026, 2026
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We present a global climatology of Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) version 8 chlorine monoxide (ClO), retrieved from spaceborne observations between 2002 and 2012. Due to an improved retrieval setup, the high bias and poor vertical resolution of upper stratospheric ClO, which had affected the previous V5 data set, has been removed. Comparisons with ClO observations of the Microwave Limb Sounder generally show good agreement. Differences can be explained by simulations with an atmospheric chemistry model.
Clara Orbe, Alison Ming, Gabriel Chiodo, Michael Prather, Mohamadou Diallo, Qi Tang, Andreas Chrysanthou, Hiroaki Naoe, Xin Zhou, Irina Thaler, Dillon Elsbury, Ewa Bednarz, Jonathon S. Wright, Aaron Match, Shingo Watanabe, James Anstey, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Stefan Versick, Marion Marchand, Feng Li, and James Keeble
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 773–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-773-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-773-2026, 2026
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The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main source of wind fluctuations in the tropical stratosphere, which can couple to surface climate. However, models do a poor job of simulating the QBO in the lower stratosphere, for reasons that remain unclear. One possibility is that models do not completely represent how ozone influences the QBO-associated wind variations. Here we propose a multi-model framework for assessing how ozone influences the QBO in recent past and future climates.
Nigel A. D. Richards, Natalya A. Kramarova, Stacey M. Frith, Sean M. Davis, and Yue Jia
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 529–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-529-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-529-2026, 2026
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The Montreal Protocol has led to a slow recovery in the Earth's ozone layer. To detect such changes, and to monitor the health of the ozone layer, long term global observations are needed. The OMPS Limb Profiler (LP) series of satellite sensors are designed to meet this need. We validate the latest version OMPS LP ozone profiles against other satellite and ground based measurements. We find that OMPS LP ozone is consistent with other data sources and is suitable for use in ozone trend studies.
Abdullah A. Fahad, Andrea Molod, Krzysztof Wargan, Dimitris Menemenlis, Patrick Heimbach, Atanas Trayanov, Ehud Strobach, and Lawrence Coy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 647–663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-647-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-647-2026, 2026
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This study used reanalysis datasets and a 1-degree coupled General Circulation Model to analyze the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric temperature response in a decadal simulation. Results show that the polar stratospheric temperature increased from 1992 to 2000, contrary to the expectation of stratospheric cooling due to rising CO2. The study concluded that changes in ozone and CO2 drive the meridional eddy heat transport, dictating polar stratospheric temperature behavior.
Sarah Vervalcke, Quentin Errera, Roland Eichinger, Thomas Reddmann, Simon Chabrillat, Marc Op de beeck, Gabriele Stiller, and Emmanuel Mahieu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 391–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-391-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-391-2026, 2026
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This study presents three simulations of atmospheric chemistry with the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical Observations chemistry transport model, driven by different meteorological data sets. Newly implemented SF6 chemistry enables stratospheric transport studies. Results agree with satellite observations. The derived lifetimes of six trace gases agree with the literature, but SF6 shows larger sensitivity to the choice of meteorology. The lifetime of SF6 ranges from 1900 to 2600 years.
Paul Konopka, Felix Ploeger, Francesco D'Amato, Teresa Campos, Marc von Hobe, Shawn B. Honomichl, Peter Hoor, Laura L. Pan, Michelle L. Santee, Silvia Viciani, Kaley A. Walker, and Michaela I. Hegglin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 17973–17996, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17973-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17973-2025, 2025
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We present an improved version of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS-3.0), which better represents transport from the lower atmosphere to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. By refining grid resolution and improving convection representation, the model more accurately simulates carbon monoxide transport. Comparisons with satellite and in situ observations highlight its ability to capture seasonal variations and improve our understanding of atmospheric transport.
Simon Chabrillat, Samuel Rémy, Quentin Errera, Vincent Huijnen, Christine Bingen, Jonas Debosscher, François Hendrick, Swen Metzger, Adrien Mora, Daniele Minganti, Marc Op de beek, Léa Reisenfeld, Jason E. Williams, Henk Eskes, and Johannes Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8973–9014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8973-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8973-2025, 2025
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We document the forecasts of the composition of the stratosphere by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. The model's predictions are compared with satellite measurements over a recent period, during polar ozone depletion events, and after the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The system performs well for sulfate aerosols, ozone and several other key gases but not as well for several nitrogen-containing gases. Chemical processes in aerosols and polar clouds should be improved.
Ci Song, Daniel McCoy, Andrea Molod, Travis Aerenson, and Donifan Barahona
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 15567–15592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-15567-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-15567-2025, 2025
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Uncertainty in how clouds respond to aerosols limits predictions of future warming. This study uses GiOcean, a global reanalysis with detailed cloud microphysics to represent aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI). We assess warm cloud responses by comparing variables important for ACI between GiOcean and satellite observations and further evaluate changes in cloud properties using a source–sink budget framework.
Philip Rupp, Liliana Vázquez Fernández, William J. M. Seviour, and Thomas Birner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4587, 2025
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This study examines mortality impacts of sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs). SSWs persistently increase the chance for cold spells in Northern Europe, but their direct socio-economic effects remain poorly quantified. Using ensemble simulations of the 2018 SSW and mortality records, we attribute ca. 750 deaths in the UK and 250 in the Nordics to this event. The strongest impacts emerge from the combination of post-SSW cold anomalies and heightened mortality sensitivity to these anomalies.
Frederik Harzer, Hella Garny, Felix Ploeger, J. Moritz Menken, and Thomas Birner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 14909–14921, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14909-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14909-2025, 2025
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We study ozone transport in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere using potential temperature as vertical coordinate, thereby distinguishing adiabatic and diabatic processes. We find that on top of known dominant transport processes (quasi-horizontal mixing, slow diabatic descent) vertical mixing plays an important role near the tropopause. Our findings are relevant for understanding ozone's role in climate including its imprint on tropospheric ozone via stratosphere-troposphere air exchange.
Simone Brunamonti, Harald Saathoff, Albert Hertzog, Glenn Diskin, Masatomo Fujiwara, Karen Rosenlof, Ottmar Möhler, Béla Tuzson, Lukas Emmenegger, Nadir Amarouche, Georges Durry, Fabien Frérot, Jean-Christophe Samake, Claire Cenac, Julio Lopez, Paul Monnier, and Mélanie Ghysels
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 5321–5348, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-5321-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-5321-2025, 2025
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Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas, and accurate measurements of its concentration in the upper atmosphere (~8–25 km altitude) are crucial for reliable climate predictions. We investigated the performance of four airborne hygrometers, deployed on aircraft or stratospheric balloon platforms and based on different techniques, in a climate simulation chamber. The results demonstrate the high accuracy and reliability of the involved sensors for atmospheric monitoring and research applications.
Rasul Baikhadzhaev, Felix Ploeger, Peter Preusse, Manfred Ern, and Thomas Birner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 12753–12777, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12753-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12753-2025, 2025
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Across four reanalyses, the shallow branch of the stratospheric overturning circulation was found to be driven by planetary waves 1 to 3, and the deep branch of the circulation was found to be driven by smaller-scale waves (wave 4 and higher). However, the height of the level separating the branches is dependent on the reanalysis considered. Thus, using the appropriate separation levels in model inter-comparisons could reduce the spread between models regarding climatology and trends in the circulation.
Mona Zolghadrshojaee, Susann Tegtmeier, Sean M. Davis, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, and Leopold Haimberger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 12213–12232, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12213-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12213-2025, 2025
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The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is a crucial region where the troposphere transitions into the stratosphere, influencing air mass transport. This study examines temperature trends in the TTL and lower stratosphere using data from weather balloons, satellites and reanalysis datasets. We found cooling trends in the TTL from 1980 to 2001, followed by warming from 2002 to 2023. These shifts are linked to changes in atmospheric circulation and impact water vapour transport into the stratosphere.
Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Shingo Watanabe, Masakazu Taguchi, Federico Serva, James A. Anstey, Jadwiga H. Richter, Neal Butchart, Clara Orbe, Scott M. Osprey, Hiroaki Naoe, Dillon Elsbury, Chih-Chieh Chen, Javier García-Serrano, Anne Glanville, Tobias Kerzenmacher, François Lott, Froila M. Palmeiro, Mijeong Park, Stefan Versick, and Kohei Yoshida
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1045–1073, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1045-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1045-2025, 2025
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The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the tropical stratospheric mean winds has been relatively steady over the 7 decades it has been observed, but there are always cycle-to-cycle variations. This study used several global atmospheric models to investigate systematic modulation of the QBO by the El Niño/La Niña cycle. All models simulated shorter periods during El Niño, in agreement with observations. By contrast, the models disagreed even on the sign of the El Niño effect on QBO amplitude.
Huisheng Bian, Sarah Strode, Mian Chin, Fan Li, Andrea Molad, Peter R. Colarco, and Hongbin Yu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4501, 2025
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We study the North Pacific westerly jet (NPWJ) using four reanalysis datasets and eight CMIP6 models. Our results show that between 1980 and 2019, the NPWJ core oscillates seasonally between north and south, weakening and shifting northward in summer and autumn. Single-forcing simulations further reveal aerosol forcing as the main driver. Incorporating interacting chemistry and time-varying ozone radiative forcing into Earth system models is crucial for simulating long-term atmospheric dynamics.
Yugo Kanaya, Roberto Sommariva, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Andrea Mazzeo, Theodore K. Koenig, Kaori Kawana, James E. Johnson, Aurélie Colomb, Pierre Tulet, Suzie Molloy, Ian E. Galbally, Rainer Volkamer, Anoop Mahajan, John W. Halfacre, Paul B. Shepson, Julia Schmale, Hélène Angot, Byron Blomquist, Matthew D. Shupe, Detlev Helmig, Junsu Gil, Meehye Lee, Sean C. Coburn, Ivan Ortega, Gao Chen, James Lee, Kenneth C. Aikin, David D. Parrish, John S. Holloway, Thomas B. Ryerson, Ilana B. Pollack, Eric J. Williams, Brian M. Lerner, Andrew J. Weinheimer, Teresa Campos, Frank M. Flocke, J. Ryan Spackman, Ilann Bourgeois, Jeff Peischl, Chelsea R. Thompson, Ralf M. Staebler, Amir A. Aliabadi, Wanmin Gong, Roeland Van Malderen, Anne M. Thompson, Ryan M. Stauffer, Debra E. Kollonige, Juan Carlos Gómez Martin, Masatomo Fujiwara, Katie Read, Matthew Rowlinson, Keiichi Sato, Junichi Kurokawa, Yoko Iwamoto, Fumikazu Taketani, Hisahiro Takashima, Mónica Navarro-Comas, Marios Panagi, and Martin G. Schultz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4901–4932, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4901-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4901-2025, 2025
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The first comprehensive dataset of tropospheric ozone over oceans/polar regions is presented, including 77 ship/buoy and 48 aircraft campaign observations (1977–2022, 0–5000 m altitude), supplemented by ozonesonde and surface data. Air masses isolated from land for 72+ hours are systematically selected as essentially oceanic. Among the 11 global regions, they show daytime decreases of 11–16 % in the tropics, while near-zero depletions are rare, unlike in the Arctic, implying different mechanisms.
Shenglong Zhang, Jiao Chen, Jonathon S. Wright, Sean M. Davis, Jie Gao, Paul Konopka, Ninghui Li, Mengqian Lu, Susann Tegtmeier, Xiaolu Yan, Guang J. Zhang, and Nuanliang Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 10109–10139, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10109-2025, 2025
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Swirling above summer storms, the Asian monsoon anticyclone functions as both gateway and gatekeeper to moisture entering the stratosphere. Although well monitored from space since 2005, many details of the anticyclone and the air that flows through it remain mysterious. Reanalyses, which combine model output and observations, may help to address how and why but only if they reliably capture the what and where of water vapor variations. Current reanalyses are beginning to meet these criteria.
Jonathon S. Wright, Shenglong Zhang, Jiao Chen, Sean M. Davis, Paul Konopka, Mengqian Lu, Xiaolu Yan, and Guang J. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9617–9643, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9617-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9617-2025, 2025
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Atmospheric reanalysis products reconstruct past states of the atmosphere. These products are often used to study winds and temperatures in the upper-level monsoon circulation, but their ability to reproduce composition fields like water vapor and ozone has been questionable at best. Here we report clear signs of improvement in both consistency across reanalyses and agreement with satellite observations, outline limitations, and suggest steps to further enhance the usefulness of these fields.
Yunqian Zhu, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Valentina Aquila, Elizabeth Asher, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Christoph Brühl, Amy H. Butler, Parker Case, Simon Chabrillat, Gabriel Chiodo, Margot Clyne, Peter R. Colarco, Sandip Dhomse, Lola Falletti, Eric Fleming, Ben Johnson, Andrin Jörimann, Mahesh Kovilakam, Gerbrand Koren, Ales Kuchar, Nicolas Lebas, Qing Liang, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham Mann, Michael Manyin, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Newman, Luke D. Oman, Freja F. Østerstrøm, Yifeng Peng, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Samuel Rémy, Takashi Sekiya, Stephen Steenrod, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Rei Ueyama, Daniele Visioni, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Yousuke Yamashita, Pengfei Yu, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, and Zhihong Zhuo
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5487–5512, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5487-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5487-2025, 2025
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To understand the climate impact of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption, we developed a climate model–observation comparison project. The paper describes the protocols and models that participate in the experiments. We designed several experiments to achieve our goals of this activity: (1) to evaluate the climate model performance and (2) to understand the Earth system responses to this eruption.
Yuna Lim, Andrea M. Molod, Randal D. Koster, and Joseph A. Santanello
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3435–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3435-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3435-2025, 2025
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To better utilize a given set of predictions, identifying “forecasts of opportunity” is valuable as this helps anticipate when prediction skill will be higher. This study shows that when strong land–atmosphere (L–A) coupling is detected 3–4 weeks into a forecast, the surface air temperature prediction skill at this lead time increases across the Midwest and northern Great Plains. Regions experiencing strong L–A coupling exhibit warm and dry anomalies, enhancing predictions of abnormally warm events.
Masatomo Fujiwara, Bomin Sun, Anthony Reale, Domenico Cimini, Salvatore Larosa, Lori Borg, Christoph von Rohden, Michael Sommer, Ruud Dirksen, Marion Maturilli, Holger Vömel, Rigel Kivi, Bruce Ingleby, Ryan J. Kramer, Belay Demoz, Fabio Madonna, Fabien Carminati, Owen Lewis, Brett Candy, Christopher Thomas, David Edwards, Noersomadi, Kensaku Shimizu, and Peter Thorne
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 2919–2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-2919-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-2919-2025, 2025
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We assess and illustrate the benefits of high-altitude attainment of balloon-borne radiosonde soundings up to and beyond 10 hPa level from various aspects. We show that the extra costs and technical challenges involved in consistent attainment of high ascents are more than outweighed by the benefits for a broad variety of real-time and delayed-mode applications. Consistent attainment of high ascents should therefore be pursued across the balloon observational network.
Jie Gao, Yi Huang, Jonathon S. Wright, Ke Li, Tao Geng, and Qiurun Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, 2025
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The aerosol in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is highly variable, and its radiative effect is poorly understood. To estimate this effect, the radiative kernel is constructed and applied. The results show that the kernels can reproduce aerosol radiative effects and are expected to simulate stratospheric aerosol radiative effects. This approach reduces computational expense, is consistent with radiative model calculations, and can be applied to atmospheric models with speed requirements.
Aaron Match, Edwin P. Gerber, and Stephan Fueglistaler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4349–4366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4349-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4349-2025, 2025
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The ozone concentration in the tropical stratosphere peaks at 26 km, protecting life from harmful ultraviolet light without poisoning it. Climate models reproduce this peak, but textbook explanations yield errors of 10 km. Simplifying the well-understood sources and sinks of ozone, we develop a theory explaining that tropical ozone peaks where its dominant sink transitions from damping of atomic oxygen aloft (mainly via catalytic chemistry) to damping of ozone below (mainly via transport).
Matthew Toohey, Yue Jia, Sujan Khanal, and Susann Tegtmeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3821–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3821-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3821-2025, 2025
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The climate impact of volcanic eruptions depends in part on how long aerosols spend in the stratosphere. We develop a conceptual model for stratospheric aerosol lifetime in terms of production and decay timescales, as well as a lag between injection and decay. We find residence time depends strongly on injection height in the lower stratosphere. We show that the lifetime of stratospheric aerosol from the 1991 Pinatubo eruption is around 22 months, significantly longer than is commonly reported.
Tómas Zoëga, Trude Storelvmo, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2989–3010, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025, 2025
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We use an Earth system model to systematically investigate the climate response to high-latitude effusive volcanic eruptions as a function of eruption season and size, with a focus on the Arctic. We find that different seasons strongly modulate the climate response, with Arctic surface warming observed in winter and cooling in summer. Additionally, as eruptions increase in terms of sulfur dioxide emissions, the climate response becomes increasingly insensitive to variations in emission strength.
Louis Rivoire, Marianna Linz, Jessica L. Neu, Pu Lin, and Michelle L. Santee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2269–2289, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2269-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2269-2025, 2025
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The recovery of the ozone hole since the 1987 Montreal Protocol has been observed in some regions but has yet to be seen globally. We ask how long it will take to witness a global recovery. Using a technique akin to flying a virtual satellite in a climate model, we find that the degree of confidence we place in the answer to this question is dramatically affected by errors in satellite observations.
Kimberlee Dubé, Susann Tegtmeier, Felix Ploeger, and Kaley A. Walker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1433–1447, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1433-2025, 2025
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The transport rate of air in the stratosphere has changed in response to human emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. This transport rate can be approximated using measurements of long-lived trace gases. We use observations and model results to derive anomalies and trends in the mean rate of stratospheric air transport. We find that air in the Northern Hemisphere aged by up to 0.3 years per decade relative to air in the Southern Hemisphere over 2004–2017.
Franziska Weyland, Peter Hoor, Daniel Kunkel, Thomas Birner, Felix Plöger, and Katharina Turhal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1227–1252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1227-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1227-2025, 2025
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The lowermost stratosphere (LMS) plays an important role in the Earth's climate, containing strong gradients of ozone and water vapor. Our results indicate that the thermodynamic structure of the LMS was changing between 1979–2019 in response to anthropogenic climate change and the recovery of stratospheric ozone, also indicating large-scale circulation changes. We find that both the upper and the lower LMS boundaries show an (upward) trend, which has implications for the LMS mass.
Takuji Sugidachi, Masatomo Fujiwara, Kensaku Shimizu, Shin-Ya Ogino, Junko Suzuki, and Ruud J. Dirksen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 509–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-509-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-509-2025, 2025
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A Peltier-based chilled-mirror hygrometer, SKYDEW, has been developed to measure tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor. Continuous accurate measurements of water vapor are essential for climate monitoring. More than 40 soundings with SKYDEW have been conducted since 2011 to evaluate the performance. The result of soundings at tropical and midlatitudes demonstrated that SKYDEW is able to measure up to an altitude of 20–25 km for daytime soundings and above 25 km for nighttime soundings.
Katharina Turhal, Felix Plöger, Jan Clemens, Thomas Birner, Franziska Weyland, Paul Konopka, and Peter Hoor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13653–13679, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13653-2024, 2024
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The tropopause separates the troposphere, where many greenhouse gases originate, from the stratosphere. This study examines a tropopause defined by potential vorticity – an analogue for angular momentum that changes sharply in the subtropics, creating a transport barrier. Between 1980 and 2017, this tropopause shifted poleward at lower altitudes and equatorward above, suggesting height-dependent changes in atmospheric circulation that may affect greenhouse gas distribution and global warming.
Aleena M. Jaison, Lesley J. Gray, Scott M. Osprey, Jeff R. Knight, and Martin B. Andrews
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1489–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1489-2024, 2024
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Models have biases in semi-annual oscillation (SAO) representation, mainly due to insufficient eastward wave forcing. We examined if the bias is from increased wave absorption due to circulation biases in the low–middle stratosphere. Alleviating biases at lower altitudes improves the SAO, but substantial bias remains. Alternative methods like gravity wave parameterization changes should be explored to enhance the modelled SAO, potentially improving sudden stratospheric warming predictability.
Kimberlee Dubé, Susann Tegtmeier, Adam Bourassa, Daniel Zawada, Douglas Degenstein, William Randel, Sean Davis, Michael Schwartz, Nathaniel Livesey, and Anne Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12925–12941, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12925-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12925-2024, 2024
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Greenhouse gas emissions that warm the troposphere also result in stratospheric cooling. The cooling rate is difficult to quantify above 35 km due to a deficit of long-term observational data with high vertical resolution in this region. We use satellite observations from several instruments, including a new temperature product from OSIRIS, to show that the upper stratosphere, from 35–60 km, cooled by 0.5 to 1 K per decade over 2005–2021 and by 0.6 K per decade over 1979–2021.
Philip Rupp, Jonas Spaeth, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, Michael Sprenger, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1287–1298, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024, 2024
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We quantify the occurrence of strong synoptic storms as contributing about 20 % to the uncertainty of subseasonal geopotential height forecasts over northern Europe. We further show that North Atlantic storms are less frequent, weaker and shifted southward following sudden stratospheric warming events, leading to a reduction in northern European forecast uncertainty.
Aaron Match, Edwin P. Gerber, and Stephan Fueglistaler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10305–10322, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10305-2024, 2024
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Earth's ozone layer absorbs incoming UV light, protecting life. Removing ozone aloft allows UV light to penetrate deeper, where it is known to produce new ozone, leading to "self-healing" that partially stabilizes total ozone. However, a photochemistry model shows that, above 40 km in the tropics, deeper-penetrating UV destroys ozone, destabilizing the total ozone. Photochemical theory reveals that this destabilizing regime occurs where overhead ozone is below a key threshold.
Tim Trent, Marc Schröder, Shu-Peng Ho, Steffen Beirle, Ralf Bennartz, Eva Borbas, Christian Borger, Helene Brogniez, Xavier Calbet, Elisa Castelli, Gilbert P. Compo, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Ulrike Falk, Frank Fell, John Forsythe, Hans Hersbach, Misako Kachi, Shinya Kobayashi, Robert E. Kursinski, Diego Loyola, Zhengzao Luo, Johannes K. Nielsen, Enzo Papandrea, Laurence Picon, Rene Preusker, Anthony Reale, Lei Shi, Laura Slivinski, Joao Teixeira, Tom Vonder Haar, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9667–9695, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9667-2024, 2024
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In a warmer future, water vapour will spend more time in the atmosphere, changing global rainfall patterns. In this study, we analysed the performance of 28 water vapour records between 1988 and 2014. We find sensitivity to surface warming generally outside expected ranges, attributed to breakpoints in individual record trends and differing representations of climate variability. The implication is that longer records are required for high confidence in assessing climate trends.
Paula L. M. Gonzalez, Lesley J. Gray, Stergios Misios, Scott Osprey, and Hedi Ma
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2487, 2024
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This study has examined a set of reanalyses, both modern and 20th Century, to evaluate the robustness of the signatures of the 11-yr solar cycle in the North Atlantic climate. We find a robust response to the 11-yr solar cycle over the North Atlantic sector with a positive SLP anomaly north of the Azores region at lags of +2–3 years following solar maximum. An ocean reanalysis dataset shows that thermal inertia of the ocean could explain the lag in the SC response.
Henk Eskes, Athanasios Tsikerdekis, Melanie Ades, Mihai Alexe, Anna Carlin Benedictow, Yasmine Bennouna, Lewis Blake, Idir Bouarar, Simon Chabrillat, Richard Engelen, Quentin Errera, Johannes Flemming, Sebastien Garrigues, Jan Griesfeller, Vincent Huijnen, Luka Ilić, Antje Inness, John Kapsomenakis, Zak Kipling, Bavo Langerock, Augustin Mortier, Mark Parrington, Isabelle Pison, Mikko Pitkänen, Samuel Remy, Andreas Richter, Anja Schoenhardt, Michael Schulz, Valerie Thouret, Thorsten Warneke, Christos Zerefos, and Vincent-Henri Peuch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9475–9514, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9475-2024, 2024
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The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides global analyses and forecasts of aerosols and trace gases in the atmosphere. On 27 June 2023 a major upgrade, Cy48R1, became operational. Comparisons with in situ, surface remote sensing, aircraft, and balloon and satellite observations show that the new CAMS system is a significant improvement. The results quantify the skill of CAMS to forecast impactful events, such as wildfires, dust storms and air pollution peaks.
Luis F. Millán, Peter Hoor, Michaela I. Hegglin, Gloria L. Manney, Harald Boenisch, Paul Jeffery, Daniel Kunkel, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Hao Ye, Thierry Leblanc, and Kaley Walker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7927–7959, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7927-2024, 2024
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In the Observed Composition Trends And Variability in the UTLS (OCTAV-UTLS) Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) activity, we have mapped multiplatform ozone datasets into coordinate systems to systematically evaluate the influence of these coordinates on binned climatological variability. This effort unifies the work of studies that focused on individual coordinate system variability. Our goal was to create the most comprehensive assessment of this topic.
Masatomo Fujiwara, Patrick Martineau, Jonathon S. Wright, Marta Abalos, Petr Šácha, Yoshio Kawatani, Sean M. Davis, Thomas Birner, and Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7873–7898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, 2024
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A climatology of the major variables and terms of the transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) momentum and thermodynamic equations from four global atmospheric reanalyses is evaluated. The spread among reanalysis TEM momentum balance terms is around 10 % in Northern Hemisphere winter and up to 50 % in Southern Hemisphere winter. The largest uncertainties in the thermodynamic equation (about 50 %) are in the vertical advection, which does not show a structure consistent with the differences in heating.
Andrea E. Gordon, Cameron R. Homeyer, Jessica B. Smith, Rei Ueyama, Jonathan M. Dean-Day, Elliot L. Atlas, Kate Smith, Jasna V. Pittman, David S. Sayres, David M. Wilmouth, Apoorva Pandey, Jason M. St. Clair, Thomas F. Hanisco, Jennifer Hare, Reem A. Hannun, Steven Wofsy, Bruce C. Daube, and Stephen Donnelly
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7591–7608, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7591-2024, 2024
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In situ airborne observations of ongoing tropopause-overshooting convection and an above-anvil cirrus plume from the 31 May 2022 flight of the Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) field campaign are examined. Upper troposphere and lower stratosphere composition changes are evaluated along with possible contributing dynamical and physical processes. Measurements reveal multiple changes in air mass composition and stratospheric hydration throughout the flight.
Mona Zolghadrshojaee, Susann Tegtmeier, Sean M. Davis, and Robin Pilch Kedzierski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7405–7419, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7405-2024, 2024
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Satellite data challenge the idea of an overall cooling trend in the tropical tropopause layer. From 2002 to 2022, a warming trend was observed, diverging from earlier findings. Tropopause height changes indicate dynamic processes alongside radiative effects. Upper-tropospheric warming contrasts with lower-stratosphere temperatures. The study highlights the complex interplay of factors shaping temperature trends.
Dennis Booge, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Birgit Quack, and Kirstin Krüger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 801–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-801-2024, 2024
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Oceanic bromoform, produced by algae, is an important precursor of atmospheric bromine, highlighting the importance of implementing these emissions in climate models. The simulated mean oceanic concentrations align well with observations, while the mean atmospheric values are lower than the observed ones. Modelled annual mean emissions mostly occur from the sea to the air and are driven by oceanic concentrations, sea surface temperature, and wind speed, which depend on season and location.
Zhihong Zhuo, Herman F. Fuglestvedt, Matthew Toohey, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6233–6249, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6233-2024, 2024
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This work simulated volcanic eruptions with varied eruption source parameters under different initial conditions with a fully coupled Earth system model. We show that initial atmospheric conditions control the meridional distribution of volcanic volatiles and modulate volcanic forcing and subsequent climate and environmental impacts of tropical and Northern Hemisphere extratropical eruptions. This highlights the potential for predicting these impacts as early as the first post-eruption month.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Zizhan Hu, Yiran Peng, Mengke Zhu, and Jonathon S. Wright
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-828, 2024
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Clouds and precipitation are among the most difficult features of the climate system to simulate. Water isotopes provide valuable information about how clouds and precipitation develop and evolve, but most models that simulate water isotopes cannot resolve individual clouds. Here we introduce a new isotope-enabled model, iPyCLES, that simulates liquid and ice clouds on scales of 10 to 100 meters. This model can help to translate isotopic observations into constraints for larger-scale models.
Daniel Zawada, Kimberlee Dubé, Taran Warnock, Adam Bourassa, Susann Tegtmeier, and Douglas Degenstein
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1995–2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1995-2024, 2024
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There remain large uncertainties in long-term changes of stratospheric–atmospheric temperatures. We have produced a time series of more than 20 years of satellite-based temperature measurements from the OSIRIS instrument in the upper–middle stratosphere. The dataset is publicly available and intended to be used for a better understanding of changes in stratospheric temperatures.
Felix Ploeger, Thomas Birner, Edward Charlesworth, Paul Konopka, and Rolf Müller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2033–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2033-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2033-2024, 2024
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We present a novel mechanism of how regional anomalies in water vapour concentrations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere impact regional atmospheric circulation systems. These impacts include a displaced upper-level Asian monsoon circulation and strengthened prevailing westerlies in the Pacific region. Current climate models have biases in simulating these regional water vapour anomalies and circulation impacts, but the biases can be avoided by improving the model transport.
Ryan S. Williams, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Hella Garny, and Keith P. Shine
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1389–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1389-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1389-2024, 2024
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During winter, a brief but abrupt reversal of the mean stratospheric westerly flow (~30 km high) around the Arctic occurs ~6 times a decade. Using a chemistry–climate model, about half of these events are shown to induce large anomalies in Arctic ozone (>25 %) and water vapour (>±25 %) around ~8–12 km altitude for up to 2–3 months, important for weather forecasting. We also calculate a doubling to trebling of the risk in breaches of mid-latitude surface air quality (ozone) standards (~60 ppbv).
Patrick Martineau, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka, Hisashi Nakamura, and Yu Kosaka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, 2024
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The representation of subweekly near-surface temperature variability trends over the Southern Hemisphere landmasses is compared across multiple atmospheric reanalyses. It is found that there is generally a good agreement concerning the positive trends affecting South Africa and Australia in the spring, and South America in the summer. A more efficient generation of subweekly temperature variance by horizontal temperature fluxes contributes to the observed rise.
Emily N. Tinney and Cameron R. Homeyer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14375–14392, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14375-2023, 2023
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A long-term record of satellite observations is used to study extreme water vapor concentrations in the lower stratosphere, which are important to climate variability and change. We use a deeper layer of stratospheric observations than prior work to more comprehensively identify these events. We show that extreme water vapor concentrations are frequent, especially in the lowest layers of the stratosphere that have not been analyzed previously.
Michael Sigmond, James Anstey, Vivek Arora, Ruth Digby, Nathan Gillett, Viatcheslav Kharin, William Merryfield, Catherine Reader, John Scinocca, Neil Swart, John Virgin, Carsten Abraham, Jason Cole, Nicolas Lambert, Woo-Sung Lee, Yongxiao Liang, Elizaveta Malinina, Landon Rieger, Knut von Salzen, Christian Seiler, Clint Seinen, Andrew Shao, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Libo Wang, and Duo Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6553–6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, 2023
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We present a new activity which aims to organize the analysis of biases in the Canadian Earth System model (CanESM) in a systematic manner. Results of this “Analysis for Development” (A4D) activity includes a new CanESM version, CanESM5.1, which features substantial improvements regarding the simulation of dust and stratospheric temperatures, a second CanESM5.1 variant with reduced climate sensitivity, and insights into potential avenues to reduce various other model biases.
Kimberlee Dubé, Susann Tegtmeier, Adam Bourassa, Daniel Zawada, Douglas Degenstein, Patrick E. Sheese, Kaley A. Walker, and William Randel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13283–13300, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13283-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a technique for understanding the causes of long-term changes in stratospheric composition. By using N2O as a proxy for stratospheric circulation in the model used to calculated trends, it is possible to separate the effects of dynamics and chemistry on observed trace gas trends. We find that observed HCl increases are due to changes in the stratospheric circulation, as are O3 decreases above 30 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere.
Frederik Harzer, Hella Garny, Felix Ploeger, Harald Bönisch, Peter Hoor, and Thomas Birner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10661–10675, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10661-2023, 2023
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We study the statistical relation between year-by-year fluctuations in winter-mean ozone and the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. In the latitude–pressure plane, regression analysis shows that anomalously weak polar vortex years are associated with three pronounced local ozone maxima over the polar cap relative to the winter climatology. These response maxima primarily reflect the non-trivial combination of different ozone transport processes with varying relative contributions.
Thomas E. Taylor, Christopher W. O'Dell, David Baker, Carol Bruegge, Albert Chang, Lars Chapsky, Abhishek Chatterjee, Cecilia Cheng, Frédéric Chevallier, David Crisp, Lan Dang, Brian Drouin, Annmarie Eldering, Liang Feng, Brendan Fisher, Dejian Fu, Michael Gunson, Vance Haemmerle, Graziela R. Keller, Matthäus Kiel, Le Kuai, Thomas Kurosu, Alyn Lambert, Joshua Laughner, Richard Lee, Junjie Liu, Lucas Mandrake, Yuliya Marchetti, Gregory McGarragh, Aronne Merrelli, Robert R. Nelson, Greg Osterman, Fabiano Oyafuso, Paul I. Palmer, Vivienne H. Payne, Robert Rosenberg, Peter Somkuti, Gary Spiers, Cathy To, Brad Weir, Paul O. Wennberg, Shanshan Yu, and Jia Zong
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3173–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3173-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3173-2023, 2023
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NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 and 3 (OCO-2 and OCO-3, respectively) provide complementary spatiotemporal coverage from a sun-synchronous and precession orbit, respectively. Estimates of total column carbon dioxide (XCO2) derived from the two sensors using the same retrieval algorithm show broad consistency over a 2.5-year overlapping time record. This suggests that data from the two satellites may be used together for scientific analysis.
Luis F. Millán, Gloria L. Manney, Harald Boenisch, Michaela I. Hegglin, Peter Hoor, Daniel Kunkel, Thierry Leblanc, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Kaley Walker, Krzysztof Wargan, and Andreas Zahn
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2957–2988, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2957-2023, 2023
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The determination of atmospheric composition trends in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) is still highly uncertain. We present the creation of dynamical diagnostics to map several ozone datasets (ozonesondes, lidars, aircraft, and satellite measurements) in geophysically based coordinate systems. The diagnostics can also be used to analyze other greenhouse gases relevant to surface climate and UTLS chemistry.
Frank Werner, Nathaniel J. Livesey, Luis F. Millán, William G. Read, Michael J. Schwartz, Paul A. Wagner, William H. Daffer, Alyn Lambert, Sasha N. Tolstoff, and Michelle L. Santee
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2733–2751, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2733-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2733-2023, 2023
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The algorithm that produces the near-real-time data products of the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder has been updated. The new algorithm is based on machine learning techniques and yields data products with much improved accuracy. It is shown that the new algorithm outperforms the previous versions, even when it is trained on only a few years of satellite observations. This confirms the potential of applying machine learning to the near-real-time efforts of other current and future mission concepts.
Flossie Brown, Lauren Marshall, Peter H. Haynes, Rolando R. Garcia, Thomas Birner, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5335–5353, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, 2023
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Large-magnitude volcanic eruptions have the potential to alter large-scale circulation patterns, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is an oscillation of the tropical stratospheric zonal winds between easterly and westerly directions. Using a climate model, we show that large-magnitude eruptions can delay the progression of the QBO, with a much longer delay when the shear is easterly than when it is westerly. Such delays may affect weather and transport of atmospheric gases.
Sean M. Davis, Nicholas Davis, Robert W. Portmann, Eric Ray, and Karen Rosenlof
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3347–3361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3347-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3347-2023, 2023
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Ozone in the lower part of the stratosphere has not increased and has perhaps even continued to decline in recent decades. This study demonstrates that the amount of ozone in this region is highly sensitive to the amount of air upwelling into the stratosphere in the tropics and that simulations from a climate model nudged to historical meteorological fields often fail to accurately capture the variations in tropical upwelling that control short-term trends in lower-stratospheric ozone.
J. Douglas Goetz, Lars E. Kalnajs, Terry Deshler, Sean M. Davis, Martina Bramberger, and M. Joan Alexander
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 791–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-791-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-791-2023, 2023
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An instrument for in situ continuous 2 km vertical profiles of temperature below high-altitude balloons was developed for high-temporal-resolution measurements within the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing. The mechanical, electrical, and temperature calibration systems were validated from a short mid-latitude constant-altitude balloon flight within the lower stratosphere. The instrument observed small-scale and inertial gravity waves.
Elias C. Massoud, Lauren Andrews, Rolf Reichle, Andrea Molod, Jongmin Park, Sophie Ruehr, and Manuela Girotto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 147–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-147-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-147-2023, 2023
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In this study, we benchmark the forecast skill of the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System subseasonal-to-seasonal (GEOS-S2S version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology on the seasonal timescale.
Evelien van Dijk, Ingar Mørkestøl Gundersen, Anna de Bode, Helge Høeg, Kjetil Loftsgarden, Frode Iversen, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 19, 357–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, 2023
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The mid-6th century was one of the coldest periods of the last 2000 years as characterized by great societal changes. Here, we study the effect of the volcanic double event in 536 CE and 540 CE on climate and society in southern Norway. The combined climate and growing degree day models and high-resolution pollen and archaeological records reveal that the northern and western sites are vulnerable to crop failure with possible abandonment of farms, whereas the southeastern site is more resilient.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 789–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-789-2023, 2023
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The large uncertainties in OH simulated by atmospheric chemistry models hinder accurate estimates of CH4 chemical loss through the bottom-up method. This study presents a new approach based on OH precursor observations and a chemical box model to improve the tropospheric OH distributions simulated by atmospheric chemistry models. Through this approach, both the global OH burden and the corresponding methane chemical loss reach consistency with the top-down method based on MCF inversions.
Felix Jäger, Philip Rupp, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 49–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, 2023
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Mid-latitude weather is dominated by the growth, breaking and decay of baroclinic waves and associated jet shifts. A way to study this process is via idealised life-cycle simulations, which are often classified as LC1 (anticyclonic breaking, poleward shift) or LC2 (cyclonic breaking, equatorward shift), depending on details of the initial state. We show that all systems exhibit predominantly anticyclonic character and poleward net shifts if multiple wave modes are allowed to grow simultaneously.
Randall V. Martin, Sebastian D. Eastham, Liam Bindle, Elizabeth W. Lundgren, Thomas L. Clune, Christoph A. Keller, William Downs, Dandan Zhang, Robert A. Lucchesi, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Robert M. Yantosca, Yanshun Li, Lucas Estrada, William M. Putman, Benjamin M. Auer, Atanas L. Trayanov, Steven Pawson, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8731–8748, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8731-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric chemistry models must be able to operate both online as components of Earth system models and offline as standalone models. The widely used GEOS-Chem model operates both online and offline, but the classic offline version is not suitable for massively parallel simulations. We describe a new generation of the offline high-performance GEOS-Chem (GCHP) that enables high-resolution simulations on thousands of cores, including on the cloud, with improved access, performance, and accuracy.
Paul S. Jeffery, Kaley A. Walker, Chris E. Sioris, Chris D. Boone, Doug Degenstein, Gloria L. Manney, C. Thomas McElroy, Luis Millán, David A. Plummer, Niall J. Ryan, Patrick E. Sheese, and Jiansheng Zou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14709–14734, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14709-2022, 2022
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The upper troposphere–lower stratosphere is one of the most variable regions in the atmosphere. To improve our understanding of water vapour and ozone concentrations in this region, climatologies have been developed from 14 years of measurements from three Canadian satellite instruments. Horizontal and vertical coordinates have been chosen to minimize the effects of variability. To aid in analysis, model simulations have been used to characterize differences between instrument climatologies.
Hector S. Torres, Patrice Klein, Jinbo Wang, Alexander Wineteer, Bo Qiu, Andrew F. Thompson, Lionel Renault, Ernesto Rodriguez, Dimitris Menemenlis, Andrea Molod, Christopher N. Hill, Ehud Strobach, Hong Zhang, Mar Flexas, and Dragana Perkovic-Martin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8041–8058, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8041-2022, 2022
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Wind work at the air-sea interface is the scalar product of winds and currents and is the transfer of kinetic energy between the ocean and the atmosphere. Using a new global coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation performed at kilometer resolution, we show that all scales of winds and currents impact the ocean dynamics at spatial and temporal scales. The consequential interplay of surface winds and currents in the numerical simulation motivates the need for a winds and currents satellite mission.
Shih-Wei Fang, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, Kirstin Krüger, and Hauke Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1535–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, 2022
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The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. This study quantifies potential surface cooling from the solar and volcanic forcing in the early 19th century with large ensemble simulations, and identifies the regions that their impacts cannot be simply additive. The cooling perspective of Arctic amplification exists in both solar and post-volcano period with the albedo feedback as the main contribution.
Shunsuke Hoshino, Takuji Sugidachi, Kensaku Shimizu, Eriko Kobayashi, Masatomo Fujiwara, and Masami Iwabuchi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5917–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5917-2022, 2022
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GRUAN data products (GDPs) from Meisei iMS-100 and Vaisala RS92 were compared with 59 dual sounding data. For daytime observations, the iMS-100 temperature is around 0.5 K lower than RS92-GDP in the stratosphere, but for nighttime observations, the difference is around −0.1 K, and data are mostly in agreement. For relative humidity (RH), iMS-100 is around 1–2 % RH higher in the troposphere and 1 % RH smaller in the stratosphere than RS92, but both GDPs are in agreement for most of the profile.
Klaus-Peter Heue, Diego Loyola, Fabian Romahn, Walter Zimmer, Simon Chabrillat, Quentin Errera, Jerry Ziemke, and Natalya Kramarova
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5563–5579, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5563-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5563-2022, 2022
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To retrieve tropospheric ozone column information, we subtract stratospheric column data of BASCOE from TROPOMI/S5P total ozone columns.
The new S5P-BASCOE data agree well with existing tropospheric data like OMPS-MERRA-2. The data are also compared to ozone soundings.
The tropospheric ozone columns show the expected temporal and spatial patterns. We will also apply the algorithm to future UV nadir missions like Sentinel 4 or 5 or to recent and ongoing missions like GOME_2 or OMI.
Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Niramson Azouz, Viktoria F. Sofieva, Daan Hubert, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Peter Effertz, Gérard Ancellet, Doug A. Degenstein, Daniel Zawada, Lucien Froidevaux, Stacey Frith, Jeannette Wild, Sean Davis, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Thierry Leblanc, Richard Querel, Kleareti Tourpali, Robert Damadeo, Eliane Maillard Barras, René Stübi, Corinne Vigouroux, Carlo Arosio, Gerald Nedoluha, Ian Boyd, Roeland Van Malderen, Emmanuel Mahieu, Dan Smale, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11657–11673, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11657-2022, 2022
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An updated evaluation up to 2020 of stratospheric ozone profile long-term trends at extrapolar latitudes based on satellite and ground-based records is presented. Ozone increase in the upper stratosphere is confirmed, with significant trends at most latitudes. In this altitude region, a very good agreement is found with trends derived from chemistry–climate model simulations. Observed and modelled trends diverge in the lower stratosphere, but the differences are non-significant.
Varaha Ravi Kiran, Madineni Venkat Ratnam, Masatomo Fujiwara, Herman Russchenberg, Frank G. Wienhold, Bomidi Lakshmi Madhavan, Mekalathur Roja Raman, Renju Nandan, Sivan Thankamani Akhil Raj, Alladi Hemanth Kumar, and Saginela Ravindra Babu
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 4709–4734, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4709-2022, 2022
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We proposed and conducted the multi-instrumental BACIS (Balloon-borne Aerosol–Cloud Interaction Studies) field campaigns using balloon-borne in situ measurements and ground-based and space-borne remote sensing instruments. Aerosol-cloud interaction is quantified for liquid clouds by segregating aerosol and cloud information in a balloon profile. Overall, the observational approach proposed here demonstrated its capability for understanding the aerosol–cloud interaction process.
Vincent Huijnen, Philippe Le Sager, Marcus O. Köhler, Glenn Carver, Samuel Rémy, Johannes Flemming, Simon Chabrillat, Quentin Errera, and Twan van Noije
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6221–6241, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6221-2022, 2022
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We report on the first implementation of atmospheric chemistry and aerosol as part of the OpenIFS model, based on the CAMS global model. We give an overview of the model and evaluate two reference model configurations, with and without the stratospheric chemistry extension, against a variety of observational datasets. This OpenIFS version with atmospheric composition components is open to the scientific user community under a standard OpenIFS license.
Jonas Spaeth and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 883–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022, 2022
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Past research has demonstrated robust stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling following stratospheric circulation extremes. Here, we use a large set of extended-range ensemble forecasts to robustly quantify the increased risk for tropospheric circulation extremes following stratospheric extreme events. In particular, we provide estimates of the fraction of tropospheric extremes that may be attributable to preceding stratospheric extremes.
Liubov Poshyvailo-Strube, Rolf Müller, Stephan Fueglistaler, Michaela I. Hegglin, Johannes C. Laube, C. Michael Volk, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9895–9914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9895-2022, 2022
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Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) controls the composition of the stratosphere, which in turn affects radiation and climate. As the BDC cannot be measured directly, it is necessary to infer its strength and trends indirectly. In this study, we test in the
model worlddifferent methods for estimating the mean age of air trends based on a combination of stratospheric water vapour and methane data. We also provide simple practical advice of a more reliable estimation of the mean age of air trends.
Jorge L. García-Franco, Lesley J. Gray, Scott Osprey, Robin Chadwick, and Zane Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 825–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, 2022
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This paper establishes robust links between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and several features of tropical climate. Robust precipitation responses, as well as changes to the Walker circulation, were found to be robustly linked to the variability in the lower stratosphere associated with the QBO using a 500-year simulation of a state-of-the-art climate model.
Kristof Bognar, Susann Tegtmeier, Adam Bourassa, Chris Roth, Taran Warnock, Daniel Zawada, and Doug Degenstein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9553–9569, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9553-2022, 2022
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We quantify recent changes in stratospheric ozone (outside the polar regions) using a combination of three satellite datasets. We find that upper stratospheric ozone have increased significantly since 2000, although the recovery shows an unexpected pause in the Northern Hemisphere. Combined with the likely decrease in ozone in the lower stratosphere, this presents an interesting challenge for predicting the future of the ozone layer.
Adrian J. Simmons
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 777–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-777-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-777-2022, 2022
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This study of changes in temperature and wind since 1979 met its twin aims of (i) increasing confidence in some findings of the latest IPCC assessment and (ii) identifying changes that had received little or no previous attention. It reports a small overall intensification and shift in position of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated storms, and a strengthening of tropical upper-level easterlies. Increases in low-level winds over tropical and southern hemispheric oceans are confirmed.
Evelien van Dijk, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Claudia Timmreck, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 18, 1601–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1601-2022, 2022
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A double volcanic eruption in 536 and 540 CE caused one of the coldest decades during the last 2000 years. We analyzed new climate model simulations from that period and found a cooling of up to 2°C and a sea-ice extent up to 200 km further south. Complex interactions between sea ice and ocean circulation lead to a reduction in the northward ocean heat transport, which makes the sea ice extend further south; this in turn leads to a surface cooling up to 20 years after the eruptions.
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
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This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
Yue Jia, Birgit Quack, Robert D. Kinley, Ignacio Pisso, and Susann Tegtmeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7631–7646, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7631-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7631-2022, 2022
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In this study, we assessed the potential risks of bromoform released from Asparagopsis farming near Australia for the stratospheric ozone layer by analyzing different cultivation scenarios. We conclude that the intended operation of Asparagopsis seaweed cultivation farms with an annual yield to meet the needs of 50 % of feedlots and cattle in either open-ocean or terrestrial cultures in Australia will not impact the ozone layer under normal operating conditions.
Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Sean Davis, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7523–7538, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, 2022
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Stratospheric water vapor is important for Earth's overall greenhouse effect and for ozone chemistry; however the factors governing its variability on interannual timescales are not fully known, and previous modeling studies have indicated that models struggle to capture this interannual variability. We demonstrate that nonlinear interactions are important for determining overall water vapor concentrations and also that models have improved in their ability to capture these connections.
Irina Mironova, Miriam Sinnhuber, Galina Bazilevskaya, Mark Clilverd, Bernd Funke, Vladimir Makhmutov, Eugene Rozanov, Michelle L. Santee, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Thomas Ulich
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6703–6716, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6703-2022, 2022
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From balloon measurements, we detected unprecedented, extremely powerful, electron precipitation over the middle latitudes. The robustness of this event is confirmed by satellite observations of electron fluxes and chemical composition, as well as by ground-based observations of the radio signal propagation. The applied chemistry–climate model shows the almost complete destruction of ozone in the mesosphere over the region where high-energy electrons were observed.
Susann Tegtmeier, Christa Marandino, Yue Jia, Birgit Quack, and Anoop S. Mahajan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6625–6676, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6625-2022, 2022
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In the atmosphere over the Indian Ocean, intense anthropogenic pollution from Southeast Asia mixes with pristine oceanic air. During the winter monsoon, high pollution levels are regularly observed over the entire northern Indian Ocean, while during the summer monsoon, clean air dominates. Here, we review current progress in detecting and understanding atmospheric gas-phase composition over the Indian Ocean and its impacts on the upper atmosphere, oceanic biogeochemistry, and marine ecosystems.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, and Bablu Sinha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4867–4893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, 2022
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This study examines interactions between variations in the strength of polar stratospheric winds and circulation in the North Atlantic in a climate model simulation. It finds that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) responds with oscillations to sets of consecutive Northern Hemisphere winters, which show all strong or all weak polar vortex conditions. The study also shows that a set of strong vortex winters in the 1990s contributed to the recent slowdown in the observed AMOC.
Lucien Froidevaux, Douglas E. Kinnison, Michelle L. Santee, Luis F. Millán, Nathaniel J. Livesey, William G. Read, Charles G. Bardeen, John J. Orlando, and Ryan A. Fuller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4779–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4779-2022, 2022
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We analyze satellite-derived distributions of chlorine monoxide (ClO) and hypochlorous acid (HOCl) in the upper atmosphere. For 2005–2020, from 50°S to 50°N and over ~30 to 45 km, ClO and HOCl decreased by −0.7 % and −0.4 % per year, respectively. A detailed model of chemistry and dynamics agrees with the results. These decreases confirm the effectiveness of the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which limited emissions of chlorine- and bromine-containing source gases, in order to protect the ozone layer.
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Alessio Bozzo, Nicholas Byrne, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Michail Diamantakis, Johannes Flemming, Lesley J. Gray, Robin J. Hogan, Luke Jones, Linus Magnusson, Inna Polichtchouk, Theodore G. Shepherd, Nils Wedi, and Antje Weisheimer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4277–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, 2022
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The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different timescales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high-resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
Irina Petropavlovskikh, Koji Miyagawa, Audra McClure-Beegle, Bryan Johnson, Jeannette Wild, Susan Strahan, Krzysztof Wargan, Richard Querel, Lawrence Flynn, Eric Beach, Gerard Ancellet, and Sophie Godin-Beekmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 1849–1870, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1849-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1849-2022, 2022
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The Montreal Protocol and its amendments assure the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer that protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation. To monitor ozone recovery, multiple satellites and ground-based observational platforms collect ozone data. The changes in instruments can influence the continuation of the ozone data. We discuss a method to remove instrumental artifacts from ozone records to improve the internal consistency among multiple observational records.
Ehud Strobach, Andrea Molod, Donifan Barahona, Atanas Trayanov, Dimitris Menemenlis, and Gael Forget
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2309–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2309-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2309-2022, 2022
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The Green's functions methodology offers a systematic, easy-to-implement, computationally cheap, scalable, and extendable method to tune uncertain parameters in models accounting for the dependent response of the model to a change in various parameters. Herein, we successfully show for the first time that long-term errors in earth system models can be considerably reduced using Green's functions methodology. The method can be easily applied to any model containing uncertain parameters.
Guangyu Liu, Toshihiko Hirooka, Nawo Eguchi, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3493–3505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3493-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3493-2022, 2022
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The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that occurred in September 2019 in the Southern Hemisphere was analyzed. A large warming and decelerated westerly winds were observed in the southern polar region. Since a reversal from westerly to easterly winds did not take place SSW2019 was classified as a minor SSW. The total wave forcing and the contribution from PW1 were larger in 2019. The strong and long-lasting planetary-scale waves with zonal wavenumber 1 played a role in SSW2019.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Ryan Hossaini, Graham W. Mann, Michelle L. Santee, and Mark Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 903–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-903-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-903-2022, 2022
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Solar flux variations associated with 11-year sunspot cycle is believed to exert important external climate forcing. As largest variations occur at shorter wavelengths such as ultra-violet part of the solar spectrum, associated changes in stratospheric ozone are thought to provide direct evidence for solar climate interaction. Until now, most of the studies reported double-peak structured solar cycle signal (SCS), but relatively new satellite data suggest only single-peak-structured SCS.
Frank Werner, Nathaniel J. Livesey, Michael J. Schwartz, William G. Read, Michelle L. Santee, and Galina Wind
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7749–7773, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7749-2021, 2021
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In this study we present an improved cloud detection scheme for the Microwave Limb Sounder, which is based on a feedforward artificial neural network. This new algorithm is shown not only to reliably detect high and mid-level convection containing even small amounts of cloud water but also to distinguish between high-reaching and mid-level to low convection.
John P. McCormack, V. Lynn Harvey, Cora E. Randall, Nicholas Pedatella, Dai Koshin, Kaoru Sato, Lawrence Coy, Shingo Watanabe, Fabrizio Sassi, and Laura A. Holt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17577–17605, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17577-2021, 2021
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In order to have confidence in atmospheric predictions, it is important to know how well different numerical model simulations of the Earth’s atmosphere agree with one another. This work compares four different data assimilation models that extend to or beyond the mesosphere. Results shown here demonstrate that while the models are in close agreement below ~50 km, large differences arise at higher altitudes in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere that will need to be reconciled in the future.
Paul D. Hamer, Virginie Marécal, Ryan Hossaini, Michel Pirre, Gisèle Krysztofiak, Franziska Ziska, Andreas Engel, Stephan Sala, Timo Keber, Harald Bönisch, Elliot Atlas, Kirstin Krüger, Martyn Chipperfield, Valery Catoire, Azizan A. Samah, Marcel Dorf, Phang Siew Moi, Hans Schlager, and Klaus Pfeilsticker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16955–16984, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16955-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16955-2021, 2021
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Bromoform is a stratospheric ozone-depleting gas released by seaweed and plankton transported to the stratosphere via convection in the tropics. We study the chemical interactions of bromoform and its derivatives within convective clouds using a cloud-scale model and observations. Our findings are that soluble bromine gases are efficiently washed out and removed within the convective clouds and that most bromine is transported vertically to the upper troposphere in the form of bromoform.
Hugh C. Pumphrey, Michael J. Schwartz, Michelle L. Santee, George P. Kablick III, Michael D. Fromm, and Nathaniel J. Livesey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16645–16659, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16645-2021, 2021
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Forest fires in British Columbia in August 2017 caused an unusual phenomonon: smoke and gases from the fires rose quickly to a height of 10 km. From there, the pollution continued to rise more slowly for many weeks, travelling around the world as it did so. In this paper, we describe how we used data from a satellite instrument to observe this polluted volume of air. The satellite has now been working for 16 years but has observed only three events of this type.
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Short summary
We introduce the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), review key concepts and elements of atmospheric reanalysis systems, and summarize the technical details of and differences among 11 of these systems. This work supports scientific studies and intercomparisons of reanalysis products by collecting these background materials and technical details into a single reference. We also address several common misunderstandings and points of confusion regarding reanalyses.
We introduce the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), review key concepts and...
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