Articles | Volume 18, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Aug 2018
Research article |
| 13 Aug 2018
| 13 Aug 2018
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
Dpto. Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad
Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain
previously at: College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical
Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Columbia University, New York, USA
Ulrike Langematz
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin,
Germany
Hideharu Akiyoshi
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
Slimane Bekki
LATMOS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France
Neal Butchart
Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), Exeter, UK
Martin Dameris
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für
Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Makoto Deushi
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan
Steven C. Hardiman
Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), Exeter, UK
Patrick Jöckel
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für
Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Andrew Klekociuk
Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia
Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre,
Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Marion Marchand
LATMOS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France
Martine Michou
CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
Olaf Morgenstern
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA),
Wellington, New Zealand
Fiona M. O'Connor
Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), Exeter, UK
Luke D. Oman
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight
Center (NASA GSFC), Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
David A. Plummer
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montréal, Canada
Laura Revell
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich
(ETHZ), Zürich, Switzerland
Bodeker Scientific, Christchurch, New Zealand
Eugene Rozanov
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation
Centre, Davos, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich
(ETHZ), Zürich, Switzerland
David Saint-Martin
CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
John Scinocca
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montréal, Canada
Andrea Stenke
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich
(ETHZ), Zürich, Switzerland
Kane Stone
School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne,
Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Sydney,
Australia
now at: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Boston,
Massachusetts, USA
Yousuke Yamashita
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
now at: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
(JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Kohei Yoshida
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan
Guang Zeng
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA),
Wellington, New Zealand
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Trace gases emitted to or formed within the atmosphere may be chemically or physically removed from the atmosphere. One trace gas, the hydroxyl radical (OH), is responsible for initiating the chemical removal of many trace gases, including some climate gases. Despite its importance, scientists have not been able to adequately measure OH. In this opinion piece, we discuss promising new methods to indirectly constrain OH using satellite data of trace gases that control the abundance of OH.
Miriam Sinnhuber, Christina Arras, Stefan Bender, Bernd Funke, Hanli Liu, Daniel R. Marsh, Thomas Reddmann, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Monika E. Szelag, and Jan Maik Wissing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2256, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Formation of nitric oxide NO in the upper atmosphere varies with solar activity. Observations show that it starts a chain of processes in the entire atmosphere affecting the ozone layer and climate system. This is often underestimated in models. We compare five models which show large differences in simulated NO. Analysis of results point out problems related to the oxygen balance, and to the impact of atmospheric waves on dynamics. Both must be modeled well to reproduce the downward coupling.
Laura N. Saunders, Kaley A. Walker, Gabriele P. Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Florian Haenel, Hella Garny, Harald Bönisch, Chris D. Boone, Ariana E. Castillo, Andreas Engel, Johannes C. Laube, Marianna Linz, Felix Ploeger, David A. Plummer, Eric A. Ray, and Patrick E. Sheese
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2117, 2024
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We present a 17-year stratospheric age of air dataset derived from ACE-FTS satellite measurements of sulfur hexafluoride. This is the longest continuous, global, and vertically resolved age of air time series available to date. In this paper, we show that this dataset agrees well with age of air datasets based on measurements from other instruments. We also present trends in the midlatitude lower stratosphere that indicate changes in the global circulation that are predicted by climate models.
Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8105–8123, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024, 2024
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I use errors in climate model simulations to derive correction factors for the impacts of greenhouse gases and particles that bring these simulated temperature fields into agreement with an observational reconstruction of the Earth's temperature. On average across eight models, a reduction by about one-half of the particle-induced cooling would be required, causing only 0.24 K of cooling since 1850–1899. The greenhouse gas warming simulated by several highly sensitive models would also reduce.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zachary D. Lawrence, Amy H. Butler, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Irene Erner, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Gerbrand Koren, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzaguena, David Barriopedro, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Judah Cohen, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Javier García-Serrano, Neil P. Hindley, Martin Jucker, Hera Kim, Robert W. Lee, Simon H. Lee, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Inna Polichtchouk, Jian Rao, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1762, 2024
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Variability in the extratropical stratosphere and troposphere are coupled, and because of the longer timescales characteristic of the stratosphere, this allows for a window of opportunity for surface prediction. This paper assesses whether models used for operational prediction capture these coupling processes accurately. We find that most processes are too-weak, however downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is too strong.
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1518, 2024
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Earth system models are important tools to improve our understanding of current climate and to project climate change. For this, it is crucial to understand possible shortcomings in the models. New features of the software package ESMValTool allow for comparing and visualizing a model's performance in reproducing observations within the context of other climate models in an easy and user-friendly way. The aim is to help model developers to assess and monitor climate simulations more efficiently.
Natalie Brett, Kathy S. Law, Steve R. Arnold, Javier G. Fochesatto, Jean-Christophe Raut, Tatsuo Onishi, Robert Gilliam, Kathleen Fahey, Deanna Huff, George Pouliot, Brice Barret, Elsa Dieudonne, Roman Pohorsky, Julia Schmale, Andrea Baccarini, Slimane Bekki, Gianluca Pappaccogli, Federico Scoto, Stefano Decesari, Antonio Donateo, Meeta Cesler-Maloney, William Simpson, Patrice Medina, Barbara D'Anna, Brice Temime-Roussel, Joel Savarino, Sarah Albertin, Jingqiu Mao, Becky Alexander, Allison Moon, Peter F. DeCarlo, Vanessa Selimovic, Robert Yokelson, and Ellis S. Robinson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1450, 2024
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Processes influencing dispersion of local anthropogenic emissions in Arctic wintertime are investigated with dispersion model simulations. Modelled power plant plume rise that considers surface and elevated temperature inversions improves results compared to observations. Modelled near-surface concentrations are improved by representation of vertical mixing and emission estimates. Large increases in diesel vehicle emissions at temperatures reaching -35 °C are required to reproduce observed NOx.
Lauren R. Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Andrew P. Schurer, Nathan Luke Abraham, Lucie J. Lücke, Rob Wilson, Kevin Anchukaitis, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Myriam Khodri, and Kohei Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1322, 2024
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Large volcanic eruptions have caused temperature deviations over the past 1000 years, however climate model results and reconstructions of surface cooling using tree-rings do not match. We explore this mismatch using the latest models and find a better match to tree-ring reconstructions for some eruptions. Our results show that the way in which eruptions are simulated in models matters for the comparison to tree-rings, particularly regarding the spatial spread of volcanic aerosol.
Guang Zeng, Richard Querel, Hisako Shiona, Deniz Poyraz, Roeland Van Malderen, Alex Geddes, Penny Smale, Dan Smale, John Robinson, and Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6413–6432, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6413-2024, 2024
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We present a homogenised ozonesonde record (1987–2020) for Lauder, a Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude site; identify factors driving ozone trends; and attribute them to anthropogenic forcings using statistical analysis and model simulations. We find that significant negative lower-stratospheric ozone trends identified at Lauder are associated with an increase in tropopause height and that CO2-driven dynamical changes have played an increasingly important role in driving ozone trends.
Wenjuan Huo, Tobias Spiegl, Sebastian Wahl, Katja Matthes, Ulrike Langematz, Holger Pohlmann, and Jürgen Kröger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1288, 2024
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Uncertainties of the solar signals in the middle atmosphere are assessed based on large ensemble simulations with multiple climate models. Our results demonstrate the 11-year solar signals in the short wave heating rate, temperature, and ozone anomalies are significant and robust. the simulated dynamical responses are model-dependent, and solar imprints in the polar night jet are influenced by biases in the model used.
Sandro Vattioni, Andrea Stenke, Beiping Luo, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, Elia Wunderlin, and Thomas Peter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4181–4197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4181-2024, 2024
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We investigate the sensitivity of aerosol size distributions in the presence of strong SO2 injections for climate interventions or after volcanic eruptions to the call sequence and frequency of the routines for nucleation and condensation in sectional aerosol models with operator splitting. Using the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2, we show that the radiative and chemical outputs are sensitive to these settings at high H2SO4 supersaturations and how to obtain reliable results.
Christina V. Brodowsky, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Valentina Aquila, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Michael Höpfner, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Ulrike Niemeier, Giovanni Pitari, Ilaria Quaglia, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Claudia Timmreck, Sandro Vattioni, Daniele Visioni, Pengfei Yu, Yunqian Zhu, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5513–5548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, 2024
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The aerosol layer is an essential part of the climate system. We characterize the sulfur budget in a volcanically quiescent (background) setting, with a special focus on the sulfate aerosol layer using, for the first time, a multi-model approach. The aim is to identify weak points in the representation of the atmospheric sulfur budget in an intercomparison of nine state-of-the-art coupled global circulation models.
Felicia Kolonjari, Patrick E. Sheese, Kaley A. Walker, Chris D. Boone, David A. Plummer, Andreas Engel, Stephen A. Montzka, David E. Oram, Tanja Schuck, Gabriele P. Stiller, and Geoffrey C. Toon
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 2429–2449, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2429-2024, 2024
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The Canadian Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS) satellite instrument is currently providing the only vertically resolved chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22) measurements from space. This study assesses the most current ACE-FTS HCFC-22 data product in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, as well as modelled HCFC-22 from a 39-year run of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM39) in the same region.
Simon Rosanka, Holger Tost, Rolf Sander, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2597–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2597-2024, 2024
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The capabilities of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) are extended to account for non-equilibrium aqueous-phase chemistry in the representation of deliquescent aerosols. When applying the new development in a global simulation, we find that MESSy's bias in modelling routinely observed reduced inorganic aerosol mass concentrations, especially in the United States. Furthermore, the representation of fine-aerosol pH is particularly improved in the marine boundary layer.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
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Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Alejandro Malagón-Romero, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3577–3592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3577-2024, 2024
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Sprites are electrical discharges that occur in the upper atmosphere. Recent modelling and observational data suggest that they may have a measurable impact on atmospheric chemistry. We incorporate both the occurrence rate of sprites and their production of chemical species into a chemistry–climate model. While our results indicate that sprites have a minimal global influence on atmospheric chemistry, they underscore their noteworthy importance at a regional scale.
Xiaodan Ma, Jianping Huang, Michaela Hegglin, Patrick Joeckel, and Tianliang Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2411, 2024
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Our study examines 30 years of tropospheric ozone changes in the Northwest Pacific region. We found a significant increase in ozone levels during spring and summer in the middle-upper troposphere. This change is driven by a complex interplay between stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, with implications for climate and air quality in East Asia. Further research into these mechanisms is needed.
Martyn P. Chipperfield and Slimane Bekki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2783–2802, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2783-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2783-2024, 2024
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We give a personal perspective on recent issues related to the depletion of stratospheric ozone and some newly emerging challenges. We first provide a brief review of historic work on understanding the ozone layer and review ozone recovery from the effects of halogenated source gases and the Montreal Protocol. We then discuss the recent observations of ozone depletion from Australian fires in early 2020 and the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022.
Timothy P. Banyard, Corwin J. Wright, Scott M. Osprey, Neil P. Hindley, Gemma Halloran, Lawrence Coy, Paul A. Newman, Neal Butchart, Martina Bramberger, and M. Joan Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2465–2490, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2465-2024, 2024
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In 2019/2020, the tropical stratospheric wind phenomenon known as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was disrupted for only the second time in the historical record. This was poorly forecasted, and we want to understand why. We used measurements from the first Doppler wind lidar in space, Aeolus, to observe the disruption in an unprecedented way. Our results reveal important differences between Aeolus and the ERA5 reanalysis that affect the timing of the disruption's onset and its evolution.
Adriana Rocha-Lima, Peter R. Colarco, Anton S. Darmenov, Edward P. Nowottnick, Arlindo M. da Silva, and Luke D. Oman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2443–2464, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2443-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2443-2024, 2024
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Observations show an increasing aerosol optical depth trend in the Middle East between 2003–2012. We evaluate the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model's ability to capture these trends and examine the meteorological and surface parameters driving dust emissions. Our results highlight the importance of data assimilation for long-term trends of atmospheric aerosols and support the hypothesis that vegetation cover loss may have contributed to increasing dust emissions in the period.
Dongqi Lin, Jiawei Zhang, Basit Khan, Marwan Katurji, and Laura E. Revell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 815–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-815-2024, 2024
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GEO4PALM is an open-source tool to generate static input for the Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation (PALM) model system. Geospatial static input is essential for realistic PALM simulations. However, existing tools fail to generate PALM's geospatial static input for most regions. GEO4PALM is compatible with diverse geospatial data sources and provides access to free data sets. In addition, this paper presents two application examples, which show successful PALM simulations using GEO4PALM.
Sarah Albertin, Joël Savarino, Slimane Bekki, Albane Barbero, Roberto Grilli, Quentin Fournier, Irène Ventrillard, Nicolas Caillon, and Kathy Law
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1361–1388, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1361-2024, 2024
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This study reports the first simultaneous records of oxygen (Δ17O) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotopes in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrate (NO3−). These data are combined with atmospheric observations to explore sub-daily N reactive chemistry and quantify N fractionation effects in an Alpine winter city. The results highlight the necessity of using Δ17O and δ15N in both NO2 and NO3− to avoid biased estimations of NOx sources and fates from NO3− isotopic records in urban winter environments.
Ryan S. Williams, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Hella Garny, and Keith P. Shine
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1389–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1389-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1389-2024, 2024
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During winter, a brief but abrupt reversal of the mean stratospheric westerly flow (~30 km high) around the Arctic occurs ~6 times a decade. Using a chemistry–climate model, about half of these events are shown to induce large anomalies in Arctic ozone (>25 %) and water vapour (>±25 %) around ~8–12 km altitude for up to 2–3 months, important for weather forecasting. We also calculate a doubling to trebling of the risk in breaches of mid-latitude surface air quality (ozone) standards (~60 ppbv).
Victoria A. Flood, Kimberly Strong, Cynthia H. Whaley, Kaley A. Walker, Thomas Blumenstock, James W. Hannigan, Johan Mellqvist, Justus Notholt, Mathias Palm, Amelie N. Röhling, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Makoto Deushi, Srdjan Dobricic, Xinyi Dong, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Wanmin Gong, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, David A. Plummer, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Manu A. Thomas, Svetlana Tsyro, and Steven Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1079–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1079-2024, 2024
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It is important to understand the composition of the Arctic atmosphere and how it is changing. Atmospheric models provide simulations that can inform policy. This study examines simulations of CH4, CO, and O3 by 11 models. Model performance is assessed by comparing results matched in space and time to measurements from five high-latitude ground-based infrared spectrometers. This work finds that models generally underpredict the concentrations of these gases in the Arctic troposphere.
Yaowei Li, Corey Pedersen, John Dykema, Jean-Paul Vernier, Sandro Vattioni, Amit Kumar Pandit, Andrea Stenke, Elizabeth Asher, Troy Thornberry, Michael A. Todt, Thao Paul Bui, Jonathan Dean-Day, and Frank N. Keutsch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15351–15364, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15351-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15351-2023, 2023
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In 2021, the eruption of La Soufrière released sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, resulting in a spread of volcanic aerosol over the Northern Hemisphere. We conducted extensive aircraft and balloon-borne measurements after that, revealing enhanced particle concentration and altered size distribution due to the eruption. The eruption's impact on ozone depletion was minimal, contributing ~0.6 %, and its global radiative forcing effect was modest, mainly affecting tropical and midlatitude areas.
Yusuf A. Bhatti, Laura E. Revell, Alex J. Schuddeboom, Adrian J. McDonald, Alex T. Archibald, Jonny Williams, Abhijith U. Venugopal, Catherine Hardacre, and Erik Behrens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15181–15196, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15181-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15181-2023, 2023
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Aerosols are a large source of uncertainty over the Southern Ocean. A dominant source of sulfate aerosol in this region is dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which is poorly simulated by climate models. We show the sensitivity of simulated atmospheric DMS to the choice of oceanic DMS data set and emission scheme. We show that oceanic DMS has twice the influence on atmospheric DMS than the emission scheme. Simulating DMS more accurately in climate models will help to constrain aerosol uncertainty.
Ben A. Cala, Scott Archer-Nicholls, James Weber, N. Luke Abraham, Paul T. Griffiths, Lorrie Jacob, Y. Matthew Shin, Laura E. Revell, Matthew Woodhouse, and Alexander T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14735–14760, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14735-2023, 2023
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Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is an important trace gas emitted from the ocean recognised as setting the sulfate aerosol background, but its oxidation is complex. As a result representation in chemistry-climate models is greatly simplified. We develop and compare a new mechanism to existing mechanisms via a series of global and box model experiments. Our studies show our updated DMS scheme is a significant improvement but significant variance exists between mechanisms.
Dongqi Lin, Marwan Katurji, Laura E. Revell, Basit Khan, and Andrew Sturman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14451–14479, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14451-2023, 2023
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Accurate fog forecasting is difficult in a complex environment. Spatial variations in soil moisture could impact fog. Here, we carried out fog simulations with spatially different soil moisture in complex topography. The soil moisture was calculated using satellite observations. The results show that the spatial variations in soil moisture do not have a significant impact on where fog occurs but do impact how long fog lasts. This finding could improve fog forecasts in the future.
Michael Sigmond, James Anstey, Vivek Arora, Ruth Digby, Nathan Gillett, Viatcheslav Kharin, William Merryfield, Catherine Reader, John Scinocca, Neil Swart, John Virgin, Carsten Abraham, Jason Cole, Nicolas Lambert, Woo-Sung Lee, Yongxiao Liang, Elizaveta Malinina, Landon Rieger, Knut von Salzen, Christian Seiler, Clint Seinen, Andrew Shao, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Libo Wang, and Duo Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6553–6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, 2023
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We present a new activity which aims to organize the analysis of biases in the Canadian Earth System model (CanESM) in a systematic manner. Results of this “Analysis for Development” (A4D) activity includes a new CanESM version, CanESM5.1, which features substantial improvements regarding the simulation of dust and stratospheric temperatures, a second CanESM5.1 variant with reduced climate sensitivity, and insights into potential avenues to reduce various other model biases.
Zhenze Liu, Oliver Wild, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13755–13768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13755-2023, 2023
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We investigate the impact of net-zero policies on surface ozone pollution in China. A chemistry–climate model is used to simulate ozone changes driven by local and external emissions, methane, and warmer climates. A deep learning model is applied to generate more robust ozone projection, and we find that the benefits of net-zero policies may be overestimated with the chemistry–climate model. Nevertheless, it is clear that the policies can still substantially reduce ozone pollution in future.
Nicola J. Warwick, Alex T. Archibald, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Fiona M. O'Connor, John A. Pyle, and Keith P. Shine
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13451–13467, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13451-2023, 2023
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A chemistry–climate model has been used to explore the atmospheric response to changes in emissions of hydrogen and other species associated with a shift from fossil fuel to hydrogen use. Leakage of hydrogen results in indirect global warming, offsetting greenhouse gas emission reductions from reduced fossil fuel use. To maximise the benefit of hydrogen as an energy source, hydrogen leakage and emissions of methane, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides should be minimised.
Franziska Zilker, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Tatiana Egorova, Eugene Rozanov, Jan Sedlacek, Svenja Seeber, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13387–13411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023, 2023
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The Montreal Protocol (MP) has successfully reduced the Antarctic ozone hole by banning chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that destroy the ozone layer. Moreover, CFCs are strong greenhouse gases (GHGs) that would have strengthened global warming. In this study, we investigate the surface weather and climate in a world without the MP at the end of the 21st century, disentangling ozone-mediated and GHG impacts of CFCs. Overall, we avoided 1.7 K global surface warming and a poleward shift in storm tracks.
Roland Eichinger, Sebastian Rhode, Hella Garny, Peter Preusse, Petr Pisoft, Aleš Kuchař, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, and Bastian Kern
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5561–5583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5561-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5561-2023, 2023
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The columnar approach of gravity wave (GW) schemes results in dynamical model biases, but parallel decomposition makes horizontal GW propagation computationally unfeasible. In the global model EMAC, we approximate it by GW redistribution at one altitude using tailor-made redistribution maps generated with a ray tracer. More spread-out GW drag helps reconcile the model with observations and close the 60°S GW gap. Polar vortex dynamics are improved, enhancing climate model credibility.
Jason Neil Steven Cole, Knut von Salzen, Jiangnan Li, John Scinocca, David Plummer, Vivek Arora, Norman McFarlane, Michael Lazare, Murray MacKay, and Diana Verseghy
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5427–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5427-2023, 2023
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The Canadian Atmospheric Model version 5 (CanAM5) is used to simulate on a global scale the climate of Earth's atmosphere, land, and lakes. We document changes to the physics in CanAM5 since the last major version of the model (CanAM4) and evaluate the climate simulated relative to observations and CanAM4. The climate simulated by CanAM5 is similar to CanAM4, but there are improvements, including better simulation of temperature and precipitation over the Amazon and better simulation of cloud.
Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Svenja Seeber, Daniela Domeisen, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Franziska Zilker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10451–10472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, 2023
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Stratospheric ozone protects the biosphere from harmful UV radiation. Anthropogenic activity has led to a reduction in the ozone layer in the recent past, but thanks to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, the ozone layer is projected to recover. In this study, we show that projected future changes in Arctic ozone abundances during springtime will influence stratospheric climate and thereby actively modulate large-scale circulation changes in the Northern Hemisphere.
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, James Keeble, Thomas Peter, Svenja Seeber, Andrea Stenke, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Eugene Rozanov, David Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, and Béatrice Josse
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10235–10254, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023, 2023
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Previously, it has been suggested that springtime Arctic ozone depletion might worsen in the coming decades due to climate change, which might counteract the effect of reduced ozone-depleting substances. Here, we show with different chemistry–climate models that springtime Arctic ozone depletion will likely decrease in the future. Further, we explain why models show a large spread in the projected development of Arctic ozone depletion and use the model spread to constrain future projections.
Joao Carlos Martins Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelly, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Representing socio-economic impacts on fires is crucial to underpin the confidence in global fire models. Introducing these into INFERNO, reduces biases and improves the modelled burnt area (BA) trends when compared to observations. Including socio-economic factors in the representation of fires in Earth System Models is important for realistically simulating BA, quantifying trends in the recent past, and for understanding the main drivers of those at regional scales.
Tobias C. Spiegl, Ulrike Langematz, Holger Pohlmann, and Jürgen Kröger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 789–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-789-2023, 2023
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We investigate the role of the solar cycle in atmospheric domains with the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model in high resolution (MPI-ESM-HR). We focus on the tropical upper stratosphere, Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter dynamics and potential surface imprints. We found robust solar signals at the tropical stratopause and a weak dynamical response in the NH during winter. However, we cannot confirm the importance of the 11-year solar cycle for decadal variability in the troposphere.
Jonny Williams, Erik Behrens, Olaf Morgenstern, Peter Gibson, and Joao Teixeira
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1694, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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We use open-source cyclone tracking software and state-of-the-art climate models to characterise present-day tropical cyclones – TCs – in the South Pacific before moving on to estimate how they may change in the future. A robust result of this work is the projection of future intensification of TCs. However, the question of their future occurrence frequency is less clear. Under extreme future warming scenarios, we postulate a possible increase in power dissipation per TC of up to 25 %.
Cyril Caram, Sophie Szopa, Anne Cozic, Slimane Bekki, Carlos A. Cuevas, and Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4041–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4041-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4041-2023, 2023
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We studied the role of halogenated compounds (containing chlorine, bromine and iodine), emitted by natural processes (mainly above the oceans), in the chemistry of the lower layers of the atmosphere. We introduced this relatively new chemistry in a three-dimensional climate–chemistry model and looked at how this chemistry will disrupt the ozone. We showed that the concentration of ozone decreases by 22 % worldwide and that of the atmospheric detergent, OH, by 8 %.
Markus Kilian, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Mariano Mertens, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-528, 2023
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Anthropogenic emissions are a major source of precursors for tropospheric ozone formation. As ozone formation is highly non-linear, we apply a global-regional chemistry-climate model with a source attribution method (tagging) to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to ozone. We focus on two major polluted areas in Europe, the Po Valley and the Benelux region. Our analysis shows that in particular anthropogenic emissions from Europe contribute largely to ground-level ozone.
Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, Timofei Sukhodolov, Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Franziska Zilker, and Eugene Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5135–5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5135-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5135-2023, 2023
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This paper describes the climate and atmosphere benefits of the Montreal Protocol, simulated with the state-of-the-art Earth system model SOCOLv4.0. We have added to and confirmed the previous studies by showing that without the Montreal Protocol by the end of the 21st century there would be a dramatic reduction in the ozone layer as well as substantial perturbation of the essential climate variables in the troposphere caused by the warming from increasing ozone-depleting substances.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4801–4817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4801-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4801-2023, 2023
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The future ozone evolution in SOCOLv4 simulations under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios has been assessed for the period 2015–2099 and subperiods using the DLM approach. The SOCOLv4 projects a decline in tropospheric ozone in the 2030s in SSP2-4.5 and in the 2060s in SSP5-8.5. The stratospheric ozone increase is ~3 times higher in SSP5-8.5, confirming the important role of GHGs in ozone evolution. We also showed that tropospheric ozone strongly impacts the total column in the tropics.
Andrey V. Koval, Olga N. Toptunova, Maxim A. Motsakov, Ksenia A. Didenko, Tatiana S. Ermakova, Nikolai M. Gavrilov, and Eugene V. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4105–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4105-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4105-2023, 2023
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Periodic changes in all hydrodynamic parameters are constantly observed in the atmosphere. The amplitude of these fluctuations increases with height due to a decrease in the atmospheric density. In the upper layers of the atmosphere, waves are the dominant form of motion. We use a model of the general circulation of the atmosphere to study the contribution to the formation of the dynamic and temperature regimes of the middle and upper atmosphere made by different global-scale atmospheric waves.
Ruhi S. Humphries, Melita D. Keywood, Jason P. Ward, James Harnwell, Simon P. Alexander, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Keiichiro Hara, Ian M. McRobert, Alain Protat, Joel Alroe, Luke T. Cravigan, Branka Miljevic, Zoran D. Ristovski, Robyn Schofield, Stephen R. Wilson, Connor J. Flynn, Gourihar R. Kulkarni, Gerald G. Mace, Greg M. McFarquhar, Scott D. Chambers, Alastair G. Williams, and Alan D. Griffiths
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3749–3777, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3749-2023, 2023
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Observations of aerosols in pristine regions are rare but are vital to constraining the natural baseline from which climate simulations are calculated. Here we present recent seasonal observations of aerosols from the Southern Ocean and contrast them with measurements from Antarctica, Australia and regionally relevant voyages. Strong seasonal cycles persist, but striking differences occur at different latitudes. This study highlights the need for more long-term observations in remote regions.
Robin N. Thor, Mariano Mertens, Sigrun Matthes, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Sabine Brinkop, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, and Steven Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1459–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1459-2023, 2023
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We report on an inconsistency in the latitudinal distribution of aviation emissions between two versions of a data product which is widely used by researchers. From the available documentation, we do not expect such an inconsistency. We run a chemistry–climate model to compute the effect of the inconsistency in emissions on atmospheric chemistry and radiation and find that the radiative forcing associated with aviation ozone is 7.6 % higher when using the less recent version of the data.
Zixuan Jia, Carlos Ordóñez, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Steven T. Turnock, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2829–2842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, 2023
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This study investigates the influence of the winter large-scale circulation on daily concentrations of PM2.5 and their sensitivity to emissions. The new proposed circulation index can effectively distinguish different levels of air pollution and explain changes in PM2.5 sensitivity to emissions from local and surrounding regions. We then project future changes in PM2.5 concentrations using this index and find an increase in PM2.5 concentrations over the region due to climate change.
Dominik Brunner, Gerrit Kuhlmann, Stephan Henne, Erik Koene, Bastian Kern, Sebastian Wolff, Christiane Voigt, Patrick Jöckel, Christoph Kiemle, Anke Roiger, Alina Fiehn, Sven Krautwurst, Konstantin Gerilowski, Heinrich Bovensmann, Jakob Borchardt, Michal Galkowski, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Marshall, Andrzej Klonecki, Pascal Prunet, Robert Hanfland, Margit Pattantyús-Ábrahám, Andrzej Wyszogrodzki, and Andreas Fix
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2699–2728, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2699-2023, 2023
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We evaluated six atmospheric transport models for their capability to simulate the CO2 plumes from two of the largest power plants in Europe by comparing the models against aircraft observations collected during the CoMet (Carbon Dioxide and Methane Mission) campaign in 2018. The study analyzed how realistically such plumes can be simulated at different model resolutions and how well the planned European satellite mission CO2M will be able to quantify emissions from power plants.
Philip E. Bett, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Hazel E. Thornton, Xiaocen Shen, Lin Wang, and Bo Pang
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 213–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, 2023
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Sudden-stratospheric-warming (SSW) events can severely affect the subsequent weather at the surface. We use a large ensemble of climate model hindcasts to investigate features of the climate that make strong impacts more likely through negative NAO conditions. This allows a more robust assessment than using observations alone. Air pressure over the Arctic prior to an SSW and the zonal-mean zonal wind in the lower stratosphere have the strongest relationship with the subsequent NAO response.
Ilaria Quaglia, Claudia Timmreck, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Christina Brodowsky, Christoph Brühl, Sandip S. Dhomse, Henning Franke, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Eugene Rozanov, and Timofei Sukhodolov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 921–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, 2023
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The last very large explosive volcanic eruption we have measurements for is the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. It is therefore often used as a benchmark for climate models' ability to reproduce these kinds of events. Here, we compare available measurements with the results from multiple experiments conducted with climate models interactively simulating the aerosol cloud formation.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Kathy S. Law, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Henrik Skov, Stephen R. Arnold, Joakim Langner, Jakob Boyd Pernov, Garance Bergeron, Ilann Bourgeois, Jesper H. Christensen, Rong-You Chien, Makoto Deushi, Xinyi Dong, Peter Effertz, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Greg Huey, Ulas Im, Rigel Kivi, Louis Marelle, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Jeff Peischl, David A. Plummer, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Tom Ryerson, Ragnhild Skeie, Sverre Solberg, Manu A. Thomas, Chelsea Thompson, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven T. Turnock, Knut von Salzen, and David W. Tarasick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 637–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-637-2023, 2023
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This study summarizes recent research on ozone in the Arctic, a sensitive and rapidly warming region. We find that the seasonal cycles of near-surface atmospheric ozone are variable depending on whether they are near the coast, inland, or at high altitude. Several global model simulations were evaluated, and we found that because models lack some of the ozone chemistry that is important for the coastal Arctic locations, they do not accurately simulate ozone there.
Florent Tencé, Julien Jumelet, Marie Bouillon, David Cugnet, Slimane Bekki, Sarah Safieddine, Philippe Keckhut, and Alain Sarkissian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 431–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-431-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-431-2023, 2023
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Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are critical precursors to stratospheric ozone depletion, and measurement-driven classifications remain a key to accurate cloud modelling. We present PSC lidar observations conducted at the French Antarctic station Dumont d'Urville between 2007 and 2020. This dataset is analyzed using typical PSC classification schemes. We present a PSC climatology along with a significant and slightly negative 14-year trend of PSC occurences of −4.6 PSC days per decade.
Manuel Schlund, Birgit Hassler, Axel Lauer, Bouwe Andela, Patrick Jöckel, Rémi Kazeroni, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Brian Medeiros, Valeriu Predoi, Stéphane Sénési, Jérôme Servonnat, Tobias Stacke, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Klaus Zimmermann, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 315–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-315-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-315-2023, 2023
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models. Originally, ESMValTool was designed to process reformatted output provided by large model intercomparison projects like the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here, we describe a new extension of ESMValTool that allows for reading and processing native climate model output, i.e., data that have not been reformatted before.
Matthias Nützel, Sabine Brinkop, Martin Dameris, Hella Garny, Patrick Jöckel, Laura L. Pan, and Mijeong Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15659–15683, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15659-2022, 2022
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During the Asian summer monsoon season, a large high-pressure system is present at levels close to the tropopause above Asia. We analyse how air masses are transported from surface levels to this high-pressure system, which shows distinct features from the surrounding air masses. To this end, we employ multiannual data from two complementary models that allow us to analyse the climatology as well as the interannual and intraseasonal variability of these transport pathways.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, William Ball, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15333–15350, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022, 2022
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Applying the dynamic linear model, we confirm near-global ozone recovery (55°N–55°S) in the mesosphere, upper and middle stratosphere, and a steady increase in the troposphere. We also show that modern chemistry–climate models (CCMs) like SOCOLv4 may reproduce the observed trend distribution of lower stratospheric ozone, despite exhibiting a lower magnitude and statistical significance. The obtained ozone trend pattern in SOCOLv4 is generally consistent with observations and reanalysis datasets.
Amy Christiansen, Loretta J. Mickley, Junhua Liu, Luke D. Oman, and Lu Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14751–14782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14751-2022, 2022
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Understanding tropospheric ozone trends is crucial for accurate predictions of future air quality and climate, but drivers of trends are not well understood. We analyze global tropospheric ozone trends since 1980 using ozonesonde and surface measurements, and we evaluate two models for their ability to reproduce trends. We find observational evidence of increasing tropospheric ozone, but models underestimate these increases. This hinders our ability to estimate ozone radiative forcing.
Paul S. Jeffery, Kaley A. Walker, Chris E. Sioris, Chris D. Boone, Doug Degenstein, Gloria L. Manney, C. Thomas McElroy, Luis Millán, David A. Plummer, Niall J. Ryan, Patrick E. Sheese, and Jiansheng Zou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14709–14734, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14709-2022, 2022
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The upper troposphere–lower stratosphere is one of the most variable regions in the atmosphere. To improve our understanding of water vapour and ozone concentrations in this region, climatologies have been developed from 14 years of measurements from three Canadian satellite instruments. Horizontal and vertical coordinates have been chosen to minimize the effects of variability. To aid in analysis, model simulations have been used to characterize differences between instrument climatologies.
Johannes Pletzer, Didier Hauglustaine, Yann Cohen, Patrick Jöckel, and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14323–14354, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14323-2022, 2022
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Very fast aircraft can travel long distances in extremely short times and can fly at high altitudes (15 to 35 km). These aircraft emit water vapour, nitrogen oxides, and hydrogen. Water vapour emissions remain for months to several years at these altitudes and have an important impact on temperature. We investigate two aircraft fleets flying at 26 and 35 km. Ozone is depleted more, and the water vapour perturbation and temperature change are larger for the aircraft flying at 35 km.
Jin Maruhashi, Volker Grewe, Christine Frömming, Patrick Jöckel, and Irene C. Dedoussi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14253–14282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14253-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14253-2022, 2022
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Aviation NOx emissions lead to the formation of ozone in the atmosphere in the short term, which has a climate warming effect. This study uses global-scale simulations to characterize the transport patterns between NOx emissions at an altitude of ~ 10.4 km and the resulting ozone. Results show a strong spatial and temporal dependence of NOx in disturbing atmospheric O3 concentrations, with the location that is most impacted in terms of warming not necessarily coinciding with the emission region.
Neal Butchart
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1237–1272, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022, 2022
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In recent years, it has emerged that there is an affinity between stratospheric variability and surface events. Waves from the troposphere interacting with the mean flow drive much of the variability in the polar vortex, sudden stratospheric warmings and tropical quasi-biennial oscillation. Here we review the historical evolution of established knowledge of the stratosphere's global structure and dynamical variability, along with recent advances and theories, and identify outstanding challenges.
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Andrea Stenke, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13997–14017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, 2022
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In spring, winds the Arctic stratosphere change direction – an event called final stratospheric warming (FSW). Here, we examine whether the interannual variability in Arctic stratospheric ozone impacts the timing of the FSW. We find that Arctic ozone shifts the FSW to earlier and later dates in years with high and low ozone via the absorption of UV light. The modulation of the FSW by ozone has consequences for surface climate in ozone-rich years, which may result in better seasonal predictions.
Sarah A. Strode, Ghassan Taha, Luke D. Oman, Robert Damadeo, David Flittner, Mark Schoeberl, Christopher E. Sioris, and Ryan Stauffer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 6145–6161, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-6145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-6145-2022, 2022
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We use a global atmospheric chemistry model simulation to generate scaling factors that account for the daily cycle of NO2 and ozone. These factors facilitate comparisons between sunrise and sunset observations from SAGE III/ISS and observations from other instruments. We provide the scaling factors as monthly zonal means for different latitudes and altitudes. We find that applying these factors yields more consistent comparisons between observations from SAGE III/ISS and other instruments.
Ville Leinonen, Harri Kokkola, Taina Yli-Juuti, Tero Mielonen, Thomas Kühn, Tuomo Nieminen, Simo Heikkinen, Tuuli Miinalainen, Tommi Bergman, Ken Carslaw, Stefano Decesari, Markus Fiebig, Tareq Hussein, Niku Kivekäs, Radovan Krejci, Markku Kulmala, Ari Leskinen, Andreas Massling, Nikos Mihalopoulos, Jane P. Mulcahy, Steffen M. Noe, Twan van Noije, Fiona M. O'Connor, Colin O'Dowd, Dirk Olivie, Jakob B. Pernov, Tuukka Petäjä, Øyvind Seland, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Henrik Skov, Erik Swietlicki, Thomas Tuch, Alfred Wiedensohler, Annele Virtanen, and Santtu Mikkonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12873–12905, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12873-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12873-2022, 2022
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We provide the first extensive comparison of detailed aerosol size distribution trends between in situ observations from Europe and five different earth system models. We investigated aerosol modes (nucleation, Aitken, and accumulation) separately and were able to show the differences between measured and modeled trends and especially their seasonal patterns. The differences in model results are likely due to complex effects of several processes instead of certain specific model features.
Kostas Eleftheratos, John Kapsomenakis, Ilias Fountoulakis, Christos S. Zerefos, Patrick Jöckel, Martin Dameris, Alkiviadis F. Bais, Germar Bernhard, Dimitra Kouklaki, Kleareti Tourpali, Scott Stierle, J. Ben Liley, Colette Brogniez, Frédérique Auriol, Henri Diémoz, Stana Simic, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Kaisa Lakkala, and Kostas Douvis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12827–12855, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12827-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12827-2022, 2022
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We present the future evolution of DNA-active ultraviolet (UV) radiation in view of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and decreasing ozone depleting substances (ODSs). It is shown that DNA-active UV radiation might increase after 2050 between 50° N–50° S due to GHG-induced reductions in clouds and ozone, something that is likely not to happen at high latitudes, where DNA-active UV radiation will continue its downward trend mainly due to stratospheric ozone recovery from the reduction in ODSs.
Zhenze Liu, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12543–12557, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12543-2022, 2022
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Weaknesses in process representation in chemistry–climate models lead to biases in simulating surface ozone and to uncertainty in projections of future ozone change. We develop a deep learning model to demonstrate the feasibility of ozone bias correction and show its capability in providing improved assessments of the impacts of climate and emission changes on future air quality, along with valuable information to guide future model development.
Flossie Brown, Gerd A. Folberth, Stephen Sitch, Susanne Bauer, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Alexander W. Cheesman, Makoto Deushi, Inês Dos Santos Vieira, Corinne Galy-Lacaux, James Haywood, James Keeble, Lina M. Mercado, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Hans Verbeeck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12331–12352, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022, 2022
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Surface ozone can decrease plant productivity and impair human health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface ozone due to climate change over South America and Africa using Earth system models. We find that if the climate were to change according to the worst-case scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk of ozone exposure, but other areas will experience a climate benefit.
Thomas Drugé, Pierre Nabat, Marc Mallet, Martine Michou, Samuel Rémy, and Oleg Dubovik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12167–12205, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12167-2022, 2022
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This study presents the implementation of brown carbon in the atmospheric component of the CNRM global climate model and particularly in its aerosol scheme TACTIC. Several simulations were carried out with this climate model, over the period 2000–2014, to evaluate the model by comparison with different reference datasets (PARASOL-GRASP, OMI-OMAERUVd, MACv2, FMI_SAT, AERONET) and to analyze the brown carbon radiative and climatic effects.
Simon F. Reifenberg, Anna Martin, Matthias Kohl, Sara Bacer, Zaneta Hamryszczak, Ivan Tadic, Lenard Röder, Daniel J. Crowley, Horst Fischer, Katharina Kaiser, Johannes Schneider, Raphael Dörich, John N. Crowley, Laura Tomsche, Andreas Marsing, Christiane Voigt, Andreas Zahn, Christopher Pöhlker, Bruna A. Holanda, Ovid Krüger, Ulrich Pöschl, Mira Pöhlker, Patrick Jöckel, Marcel Dorf, Ulrich Schumann, Jonathan Williams, Birger Bohn, Joachim Curtius, Hardwig Harder, Hans Schlager, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10901–10917, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10901-2022, 2022
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In this work we use a combination of observational data from an aircraft campaign and model results to investigate the effect of the European lockdown due to COVID-19 in spring 2020. Using model results, we show that the largest relative changes to the atmospheric composition caused by the reduced emissions are located in the upper troposphere around aircraft cruise altitude, while the largest absolute changes are present at the surface.
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irene Erner, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
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Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
Kevin DallaSanta and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8843–8862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8843-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8843-2022, 2022
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Volcanic eruptions cool the earth by reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the surface. Paradoxically, it has been suggested that they may also warm the surface, but the evidence for this is scant. Here, we show that a small warming can be seen in a climate model for large-enough eruptions. However, even for eruptions much larger than those that have occurred in the past two millennia, post-eruption winters over Eurasia are indistinguishable from those occurring without a prior eruption.
Samuel Rémy, Zak Kipling, Vincent Huijnen, Johannes Flemming, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Melanie Ades, Richard Engelen, and Vincent-Henri Peuch
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4881–4912, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4881-2022, 2022
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This article describes a new version of IFS-AER, the tropospheric aerosol scheme used to provide global aerosol products within the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) cycle. Several components of the model have been updated, such as the dynamical dust and sea salt aerosol emission schemes. New deposition schemes have also been incorporated but are not yet used operationally. This new version of IFS-AER has been evaluated and shown to have a greater skill than previous versions.
Adrien Guyot, Alain Protat, Simon P. Alexander, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Peter Kuma, and Adrian McDonald
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3663–3681, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3663-2022, 2022
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Ceilometers are instruments that are widely deployed as part of operational networks. They are usually not able to detect cloud phase. Here, we propose an evaluation of various methods to detect supercooled liquid water with ceilometer observations, using an extensive dataset from Davis, Antarctica. Our results highlight the possibility for ceilometers to detect supercooled liquid water in clouds.
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Heidi Huntrieser, Thilo Erbertseder, Diego Loyola, Pieter Valks, Song Liu, Dale J. Allen, Kenneth E. Pickering, Eric J. Bucsela, Patrick Jöckel, Jos van Geffen, Henk Eskes, Sergio Soler, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, and Jeff Lapierre
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3329–3351, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3329-2022, 2022
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Lightning, one of the major sources of nitrogen oxides in the atmosphere, contributes to the tropospheric concentration of ozone and to the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. In this work, we contribute to improving the estimation of lightning-produced nitrogen oxides in the Ebro Valley and the Pyrenees by using two different TROPOMI products and comparing the results.
Alex R. Aves, Laura E. Revell, Sally Gaw, Helena Ruffell, Alex Schuddeboom, Ngaire E. Wotherspoon, Michelle LaRue, and Adrian J. McDonald
The Cryosphere, 16, 2127–2145, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2127-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2127-2022, 2022
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This study confirms the presence of microplastics in Antarctic snow, highlighting the extent of plastic pollution globally. Fresh snow was collected from Ross Island, Antarctica, and subsequent analysis identified an average of 29 microplastic particles per litre of melted snow. The most likely source of these airborne microplastics is local scientific research stations; however, modelling shows their origin could have been up to 6000 km away.
Irina Mironova, Miriam Sinnhuber, Galina Bazilevskaya, Mark Clilverd, Bernd Funke, Vladimir Makhmutov, Eugene Rozanov, Michelle L. Santee, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Thomas Ulich
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6703–6716, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6703-2022, 2022
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From balloon measurements, we detected unprecedented, extremely powerful, electron precipitation over the middle latitudes. The robustness of this event is confirmed by satellite observations of electron fluxes and chemical composition, as well as by ground-based observations of the radio signal propagation. The applied chemistry–climate model shows the almost complete destruction of ozone in the mesosphere over the region where high-energy electrons were observed.
M. Dolores Andrés Hernández, Andreas Hilboll, Helmut Ziereis, Eric Förster, Ovid O. Krüger, Katharina Kaiser, Johannes Schneider, Francesca Barnaba, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Jörg Schmidt, Heidi Huntrieser, Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt, Midhun George, Vladyslav Nenakhov, Theresa Harlass, Bruna A. Holanda, Jennifer Wolf, Lisa Eirenschmalz, Marc Krebsbach, Mira L. Pöhlker, Anna B. Kalisz Hedegaard, Linlu Mei, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Yangzhuoran Liu, Ralf Koppmann, Hans Schlager, Birger Bohn, Ulrich Schumann, Andreas Richter, Benjamin Schreiner, Daniel Sauer, Robert Baumann, Mariano Mertens, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kilian, Greta Stratmann, Christopher Pöhlker, Monica Campanelli, Marco Pandolfi, Michael Sicard, José L. Gómez-Amo, Manuel Pujadas, Katja Bigge, Flora Kluge, Anja Schwarz, Nikos Daskalakis, David Walter, Andreas Zahn, Ulrich Pöschl, Harald Bönisch, Stephan Borrmann, Ulrich Platt, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5877–5924, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5877-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5877-2022, 2022
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EMeRGe provides a unique set of in situ and remote sensing airborne measurements of trace gases and aerosol particles along selected flight routes in the lower troposphere over Europe. The interpretation uses also complementary collocated ground-based and satellite measurements. The collected data help to improve the current understanding of the complex spatial distribution of trace gases and aerosol particles resulting from mixing, transport, and transformation of pollution plumes over Europe.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Tahya Weiss-Gibbons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5775–5828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, 2022
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Air pollutants, like ozone and soot, play a role in both global warming and air quality. Atmospheric models are often used to provide information to policy makers about current and future conditions under different emissions scenarios. In order to have confidence in those simulations, in this study we compare simulated air pollution from 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric models to measured air pollution in order to assess how well the models perform.
Andrea Pozzer, Simon F. Reifenberg, Vinod Kumar, Bruno Franco, Matthias Kohl, Domenico Taraborrelli, Sergey Gromov, Sebastian Ehrhart, Patrick Jöckel, Rolf Sander, Veronica Fall, Simon Rosanka, Vlassis Karydis, Dimitris Akritidis, Tamara Emmerichs, Monica Crippa, Diego Guizzardi, Johannes W. Kaiser, Lieven Clarisse, Astrid Kiendler-Scharr, Holger Tost, and Alexandra Tsimpidi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2673–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2673-2022, 2022
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A newly developed setup of the chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy for Atmospheric Chemistry) is evaluated here. A comprehensive organic degradation mechanism is used and coupled with a volatility base model.
The results show that the model reproduces most of the tracers and aerosols satisfactorily but shows discrepancies for oxygenated organic gases. It is also shown that this model configuration can be used for further research in atmospheric chemistry.
Henry Bowman, Steven Turnock, Susanne E. Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Makoto Deushi, Naga Oshima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Larry Horowitz, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Dagmar Kubistin, and David D. Parrish
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3507–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022, 2022
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A full understanding of ozone in the troposphere requires investigation of its temporal variability over all timescales. Model simulations show that the northern midlatitude ozone seasonal cycle shifted with industrial development (1850–2014), with an increasing magnitude and a later summer peak. That shift reached a maximum in the mid-1980s, followed by a reversal toward the preindustrial cycle. The few available observations, beginning in the 1970s, are consistent with the model simulations.
Davide Zanchettin, Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Slimane Bekki, Jason Cole, Shih-Wei Fang, Wuhu Feng, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Nicolas Lebas, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Sara Rubinetti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Helen Weierbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022
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This paper provides metadata and first analyses of the volc-pinatubo-full experiment of CMIP6-VolMIP. Results from six Earth system models reveal significant differences in radiative flux anomalies that trace back to different implementations of volcanic forcing. Surface responses are in contrast overall consistent across models, reflecting the large spread due to internal variability. A second phase of VolMIP shall consider both aspects toward improved protocol for volc-pinatubo-full.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
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Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Heidi Huntrieser, Patrick Jöckel, and Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1545–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1545-2022, 2022
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This study reports the first parameterization of long-continuing-current lightning in a climate model. Long-continuing-current lightning is proposed to be the main precursor of lightning-ignited wildfires and sprites, a type of transient luminous event taking place in the mesosphere. This parameterization can significantly contribute to improving the implementation of wildfires in climate models.
Zhenze Liu, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1209–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1209-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1209-2022, 2022
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Tropospheric ozone is important to future air quality and climate, and changing emissions and climate influence ozone. We investigate the evolution of ozone and ozone sensitivity from the present day (2004–2014) to the future (2045–2055) and explore the main drivers of ozone changes from global and regional perspectives. This helps guide suitable emission control strategies to mitigate ozone pollution.
Kseniia Golubenko, Eugene Rozanov, Gennady Kovaltsov, Ari-Pekka Leppänen, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Ilya Usoskin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7605–7620, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7605-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7605-2021, 2021
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A new full 3-D time-dependent model, based on SOCOL-AERv2, of beryllium atmospheric production, transport, and deposition has been developed and validated using directly measured data. The model is recommended to be used in studies related to, e.g., atmospheric dynamical patterns, extreme solar particle storms, long-term solar activity reconstruction from cosmogenic proxy data, and solar–terrestrial relations.
Alexander D. Fraser, Robert A. Massom, Mark S. Handcock, Phillip Reid, Kay I. Ohshima, Marilyn N. Raphael, Jessica Cartwright, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Zhaohui Wang, and Richard Porter-Smith
The Cryosphere, 15, 5061–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5061-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5061-2021, 2021
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Landfast ice is sea ice that remains stationary by attaching to Antarctica's coastline and grounded icebergs. Although a variable feature, landfast ice exerts influence on key coastal processes involving pack ice, the ice sheet, ocean, and atmosphere and is of ecological importance. We present a first analysis of change in landfast ice over an 18-year period and quantify trends (−0.19 ± 0.18 % yr−1). This analysis forms a reference of landfast-ice extent and variability for use in other studies.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Carlos A. Cuevas, Rafael P. Fernandez, Tomás Sherwen, Rainer Volkamer, Theodore K. Koenig, Tanguy Giroud, and Thomas Peter
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6623–6645, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6623-2021, 2021
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Here, we present the iodine chemistry module in the SOCOL-AERv2 model. The obtained iodine distribution demonstrated a good agreement when validated against other simulations and available observations. We also estimated the iodine influence on ozone in the case of present-day iodine emissions, the sensitivity of ozone to doubled iodine emissions, and when considering only organic or inorganic iodine sources. The new model can be used as a tool for further studies of iodine effects on ozone.
João C. Teixeira, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nadine Unger, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6515–6539, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6515-2021, 2021
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Fire constitutes a key process in the Earth system, being driven by climate as well as affecting climate. However, studies on the effects of fires on atmospheric composition and climate have been limited to date. This work implements and assesses the coupling of an interactive fire model with atmospheric composition, comparing it to an offline approach. This approach shows good performance at a global scale. However, regional-scale limitations lead to a bias in modelling fire emissions.
Jerald R. Ziemke, Gordon J. Labow, Natalya A. Kramarova, Richard D. McPeters, Pawan K. Bhartia, Luke D. Oman, Stacey M. Frith, and David P. Haffner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 6407–6418, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6407-2021, 2021
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Seasonal and interannual ozone profile climatologies are produced from combined MLS and MERRA-2 GMI ozone for the general public. Both climatologies extend from pole to pole at altitudes of 0–80 km (1 km spacing) for the time record from 1970 to 2018. These climatologies are important for use as a priori information in satellite ozone retrieval algorithms, as validation of other measured and model-simulated ozone, and in radiative transfer studies of the atmosphere.
Marta Abalos, Natalia Calvo, Samuel Benito-Barca, Hella Garny, Steven C. Hardiman, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Rolando Garcia, Clara Orbe, David Saint-Martin, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13571–13591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, 2021
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The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), responsible for transporting mass, tracers and heat globally in the stratosphere, is evaluated in a set of state-of-the-art climate models. The acceleration of the BDC in response to increasing greenhouse gases is most robust in the lower stratosphere. At higher levels, the well-known inconsistency between model and observational BDC trends can be partly reconciled by accounting for limited sampling and large uncertainties in the observations.
Camilla K. Crockart, Tessa R. Vance, Alexander D. Fraser, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Mark A. J. Curran, Vincent Favier, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Christoph Kittel, Helle A. Kjær, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Lenneke M. Jong, Andrew D. Moy, Christopher T. Plummer, Paul T. Vallelonga, Jonathan Wille, and Lingwei Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 1795–1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, 2021
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We present preliminary analyses of the annual sea salt concentrations and snowfall accumulation in a new East Antarctic ice core, Mount Brown South. We compare this record with an updated Law Dome (Dome Summit South site) ice core record over the period 1975–2016. The Mount Brown South record preserves a stronger and inverse signal for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (in austral winter and spring) compared to the Law Dome record (in summer).
Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Andrea Stenke, William T. Ball, Christina Brodowsky, Gabriel Chiodo, Aryeh Feinberg, Marina Friedel, Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Thomas Peter, Jan Sedlacek, Sandro Vattioni, and Eugene Rozanov
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5525–5560, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5525-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5525-2021, 2021
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This paper features the new atmosphere–ocean–aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOLv4.0 and its validation. The model performance is evaluated against reanalysis products and observations of atmospheric circulation and trace gas distribution, with a focus on stratospheric processes. Although we identified some problems to be addressed in further model upgrades, we demonstrated that SOCOLv4.0 is already well suited for studies related to chemistry–climate–aerosol interactions.
Luke Surl, Tjarda Roberts, and Slimane Bekki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12413–12441, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12413-2021, 2021
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Many different chemical reactions happen when the gases from a volcano mix with air, but what effects do they have? We present aircraft measurements which show that there is less ozone within the plume of Etna than outside it. We have also made a computer model of this chemistry. This model can reproduce the effects seen when halogens (bromine and chlorine) are included in the volcanic emissions.
We look closely at the simulation to discover how complicated halogen reactions cause ozone loss.
Sampa Das, Peter R. Colarco, Luke D. Oman, Ghassan Taha, and Omar Torres
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12069–12090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12069-2021, 2021
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Interactions of extreme fires with weather systems can produce towering smoke plumes that inject aerosols at very high altitudes (> 10 km). Three such major injections, largest at the time in terms of emitted aerosol mass, took place over British Columbia, Canada, in August 2017. We model the transport and impacts of injected aerosols on the radiation balance of the atmosphere. Our model results match the satellite-observed plume transport and residence time at these high altitudes very closely.
Zhenze Liu, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Michael Hollaway, and Fiona M. O’Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10689–10706, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10689-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10689-2021, 2021
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Surface ozone (O3) has become the main cause of atmospheric pollution in the summertime in China since 2013. We find that 70 % reductions in NOx emissions are required to reduce O3 pollution in most of industrial regions of China, and controls in VOC emissions are very important. The new chemical scheme developed for a global chemistry–climate model not only captures the regional air pollution but also benefits the future studies of regional air-quality–climate interactions.
Sarah Albertin, Joël Savarino, Slimane Bekki, Albane Barbero, and Nicolas Caillon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10477–10497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10477-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10477-2021, 2021
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We report an efficient method to collect atmospheric NO2 adapted for multi-isotopic analysis and present the first NO2 triple oxygen and double nitrogen isotope measurements. Atmospheric samplings carried out in Grenoble, France, highlight the NO2 isotopic signature sensitivity to the local NOx emissions and chemical regimes. These preliminary results are very promising for using the combination of Δ17O and δ15N of NO2 as a probe of the atmospheric NOx emissions and chemistry.
Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Yves Balkanski, Samuel Albani, Tommi Bergman, Ken Carslaw, Anne Cozic, Chris Dearden, Beatrice Marticorena, Martine Michou, Twan van Noije, Pierre Nabat, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Joseph M. Prospero, Philippe Le Sager, Michael Schulz, and Catherine Scott
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10295–10335, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, 2021
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Thousands of tons of dust are emitted into the atmosphere every year, producing important impacts on the Earth system. However, current global climate models are not yet able to reproduce dust emissions, transport and depositions with the desirable accuracy. Our study analyses five different Earth system models to report aspects to be improved to reproduce better available observations, increase the consistency between models and therefore decrease the current uncertainties.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
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A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Lily N. Zhang, Susan Solomon, Kane A. Stone, Jonathan D. Shanklin, Joshua D. Eveson, Steve Colwell, John P. Burrows, Mark Weber, Pieternel F. Levelt, Natalya A. Kramarova, and David P. Haffner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9829–9838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9829-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9829-2021, 2021
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In the 1980s, measurements at the British Antarctic Survey station in Halley, Antarctica, led to the discovery of the ozone hole. The Halley total ozone record continues to be uniquely valuable for studies of long-term changes in Antarctic ozone. Environmental conditions in 2017 forced a temporary cessation of operations, leading to a gap in the historic record. We develop and test a method for filling in the Halley record using satellite data and find evidence to further support ozone recovery.
David D. Parrish, Richard G. Derwent, Steven T. Turnock, Fiona M. O'Connor, Johannes Staehelin, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Naga Oshima, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9669–9679, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9669-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9669-2021, 2021
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The few ozone measurements made before the 1980s indicate that industrial development increased ozone concentrations by a factor of ~ 2 at northern midlatitudes, which are now larger than at southern midlatitudes. This difference was much smaller, and likely reversed, in the pre-industrial atmosphere. Earth system models find similar increases, but not higher pre-industrial ozone in the south. This disagreement may indicate that modeled natural ozone sources and/or deposition loss are inadequate.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
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In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Christine Frömming, Volker Grewe, Sabine Brinkop, Patrick Jöckel, Amund S. Haslerud, Simon Rosanka, Jesper van Manen, and Sigrun Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9151–9172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9151-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9151-2021, 2021
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The influence of weather situations on non-CO2 aviation climate impact is investigated to identify systematic weather-related sensitivities. If aircraft avoid the most sensitive areas, climate impact might be reduced. Enhanced significance is found for emission in relation to high-pressure systems, jet stream, polar night, and tropopause altitude. The results represent a comprehensive data set for studies aiming at weather-dependent flight trajectory optimization to reduce total climate impact.
Vidya Varma, Olaf Morgenstern, Kalli Furtado, Paul Field, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-438, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We introduce a simple parametrisation whereby the immersion freezing temperature in the model is linked to the mineral dust distribution through a diagnostic function, thus invoking regional differences in the nucleation temperatures instead of the global default value of −10 °C. This provides a functionality to mimic the role of Ice Nucleating Particles in the atmosphere on influencing the short-wave radiation over the Southern Ocean region by impacting the cloud phase.
Antara Banerjee, Amy H. Butler, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Alan Robock, Isla R. Simpson, and Lantao Sun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6985–6997, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021, 2021
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We find that simulated stratospheric sulfate geoengineering could lead to warmer Eurasian winters alongside a drier Mediterranean and wetting to the north. These effects occur due to the strengthening of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, which shifts the North Atlantic Oscillation to a more positive phase. We find the effects in our simulations to be much more significant than the wintertime effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions which inject much less sulfate aerosol.
Dongqi Lin, Basit Khan, Marwan Katurji, Leroy Bird, Ricardo Faria, and Laura E. Revell
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2503–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2503-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2503-2021, 2021
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We present an open-source toolbox WRF4PALM, which enables weather dynamics simulation within urban landscapes. WRF4PALM passes meteorological information from the popular Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the turbulence-resolving PALM model system 6.0. WRF4PALM can potentially extend the use of WRF and PALM with realistic boundary conditions to any part of the world. WRF4PALM will help study air pollution dispersion, wind energy prospecting, and high-impact wind forecasting.
Mizuo Kajino, Makoto Deushi, Tsuyoshi Thomas Sekiyama, Naga Oshima, Keiya Yumimoto, Taichu Yasumichi Tanaka, Joseph Ching, Akihiro Hashimoto, Tetsuya Yamamoto, Masaaki Ikegami, Akane Kamada, Makoto Miyashita, Yayoi Inomata, Shin-ichiro Shima, Pradeep Khatri, Atsushi Shimizu, Hitoshi Irie, Kouji Adachi, Yuji Zaizen, Yasuhito Igarashi, Hiromasa Ueda, Takashi Maki, and Masao Mikami
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2235–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2235-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2235-2021, 2021
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This study compares performance of aerosol representation methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency's regional-scale nonhydrostatic meteorology–chemistry model (NHM-Chem). It indicates separate treatment of sea salt and dust in coarse mode and that of light-absorptive and non-absorptive particles in fine mode could provide accurate assessments on aerosol feedback processes.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Paul T. Griffiths, Lee T. Murray, Guang Zeng, Youngsub Matthew Shin, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Ian E. Galbally, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Jane Liu, Omid Moeini, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, David Tarasick, Simone Tilmes, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Paul J. Young, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4187–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, 2021
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We analyse the CMIP6 Historical and future simulations for tropospheric ozone, a species which is important for many aspects of atmospheric chemistry. We show that the current generation of models agrees well with observations, being particularly successful in capturing trends in surface ozone and its vertical distribution in the troposphere. We analyse the factors that control ozone and show that they evolve over the period of the CMIP6 experiments.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
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Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021
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This study finds how and why five state-of-the-art global climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosols differ when simulating the aftermath of large volcanic injections as part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP). We identify and explain the consequences of significant disparities in the underlying physics and chemistry currently in some of the models, which are problems likely not unique to the models participating in this study.
Patrick E. Sheese, Kaley A. Walker, Chris D. Boone, Doug A. Degenstein, Felicia Kolonjari, David Plummer, Douglas E. Kinnison, Patrick Jöckel, and Thomas von Clarmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 1425–1438, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-1425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-1425-2021, 2021
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Output from climate chemistry models (CMAM, EMAC, and WACCM) is used to estimate the expected geophysical variability of ozone concentrations between coincident satellite instrument measurement times and geolocations. We use the Canadian ACE-FTS and OSIRIS instruments as a case study. Ensemble mean estimates are used to optimize coincidence criteria between the two instruments, allowing for the use of more coincident profiles while providing an estimate of the geophysical variation.
Youhua Tang, Huisheng Bian, Zhining Tao, Luke D. Oman, Daniel Tong, Pius Lee, Patrick C. Campbell, Barry Baker, Cheng-Hsuan Lu, Li Pan, Jun Wang, Jeffery McQueen, and Ivanka Stajner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2527–2550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2527-2021, 2021
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Chemical lateral boundary condition (CLBC) impact is essential for regional air quality prediction during intrusion events. We present a model mapping Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) to Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) CB05–AERO6 (Carbon Bond 5; version 6 of the aerosol module) species. Influence depends on distance from the inflow boundary and species and their regional characteristics. We use aerosol optical thickness to derive CLBCs, achieving reasonable prediction.
Jacob W. Smith, Peter H. Haynes, Amanda C. Maycock, Neal Butchart, and Andrew C. Bushell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2469–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021, 2021
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This paper informs realistic simulation of stratospheric water vapour by clearly attributing each of the two key influences on water vapour entry to the stratosphere. Presenting modified trajectory models, the results of this paper show temperatures dominate on annual and inter-annual variations; however, transport has a significant effect in reducing the annual cycle maximum. Furthermore, sub-seasonal variations in temperature have an important overall influence.
Michael Steiner, Beiping Luo, Thomas Peter, Michael C. Pitts, and Andrea Stenke
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-935-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-935-2021, 2021
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We evaluate polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) as simulated by the chemistry–climate model (CCM) SOCOLv3.1 in comparison with measurements by the CALIPSO satellite. A cold bias results in an overestimated PSC area and mountain-wave ice is underestimated, but we find overall good temporal and spatial agreement of PSC occurrence and composition. This work confirms previous studies indicating that simplified PSC schemes may also achieve good approximations of the fundamental properties of PSCs.
Franziska Winterstein and Patrick Jöckel
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 661–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-661-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-661-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric methane is currently a hot topic in climate research. This is partly due to its chemically active nature. We introduce a simplified approach to simulate methane in climate models to enable large sensitivity studies by reducing computational cost but including the crucial feedback of methane on stratospheric water vapour. We further provide options to simulate the isotopic content of methane and to generate output for an inverse optimization technique for emission estimation.
Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson, Ron Kahana, James Keeble, Byeonghyeon Kim, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Mark Richardson, Eddy Robertson, Jeongbyn Seo, Sungbo Shim, João C. Teixeira, Steven T. Turnock, Jonny Williams, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Stephanie Woodward, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1211–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, 2021
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This paper calculates how changes in emissions and/or concentrations of different atmospheric constituents since the pre-industrial era have altered the Earth's energy budget at the present day using a metric called effective radiative forcing. The impact of land use change is also assessed. We find that individual contributions do not add linearly, and different Earth system interactions can affect the magnitude of the calculated effective radiative forcing.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
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We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
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This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
Laura Stecher, Franziska Winterstein, Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, Michael Ponater, and Markus Kunze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 731–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-731-2021, 2021
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This study investigates the impact of strongly increased atmospheric methane mixing ratios on the Earth's climate. An interactive model system including atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and a mixed-layer ocean model is used to analyse the effect of doubled and quintupled methane mixing ratios. We assess feedbacks on atmospheric chemistry and changes in the stratospheric circulation, focusing on the impact of tropospheric warming, and their relevance for the model's climate sensitivity.
Martin Dameris, Diego G. Loyola, Matthias Nützel, Melanie Coldewey-Egbers, Christophe Lerot, Fabian Romahn, and Michel van Roozendael
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 617–633, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-617-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-617-2021, 2021
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Record low ozone values were observed in March 2020. Dynamical and chemical circumstances leading to low ozone values in spring 2020 are discussed and are compared to similar dynamical conditions in the Northern Hemisphere in 1996/1997 and 2010/2011. 2019/2020 showed an unusual persistent polar vortex with low stratospheric temperatures, which were permanently below 195 K at 50 hPa. This enabled enhanced formation of polar stratospheric clouds and a subsequent clear reduction of total ozone.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Ales Kuchar, William Ball, Pavle Arsenovic, Ellis Remsberg, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kunze, David A. Plummer, Andrea Stenke, Daniel Marsh, Doug Kinnison, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, 2021
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The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model simulations and satellite observations using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. MLR analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust solar signal in both H2O and CO. The model results show a general agreement with observations reproducing a negative/positive solar signal in H2O/CO. The pattern of the solar signal varies among the considered models, reflecting some differences in the model setup.
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Richard Querel, Israel Silber, and Connor J. Flynn
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 43–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-43-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-43-2021, 2021
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin Johnson, Colin G. Jones, Adam C. Povey, Catherine E. Scott, Alistair Sellar, Steven T. Turnock, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Nathan Luke Abraham, Martin B. Andrews, Nicolas Bellouin, Jo Browse, Ken S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Matthew Glover, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Catherine Hardacre, Richard Hill, Ben Johnson, Andy Jones, Zak Kipling, Graham Mann, James Mollard, Fiona M. O'Connor, Julien Palmiéri, Carly Reddington, Steven T. Rumbold, Mark Richardson, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Philip Stier, Marc Stringer, Yongming Tang, Jeremy Walton, Stephanie Woodward, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6383–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, 2020
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Aerosols are an important component of the Earth system. Here, we comprehensively document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in the physical and Earth system models, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1. This study provides a useful characterisation of the aerosol climatology in both models, facilitating the understanding of the numerous aerosol–climate interaction studies that will be conducted for CMIP6 and beyond.
Edward J. Charlesworth, Ann-Kristin Dugstad, Frauke Fritsch, Patrick Jöckel, and Felix Plöger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15227–15245, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15227-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15227-2020, 2020
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Modeling the stratosphere requires models with good representations of chemical transport. To do this, nearly all models divide the atmosphere into boxes. This creates some unwanted problems. However, the only other option is to divide the atmosphere into balloons, and this method is very complicated. Here, we use a model which uses this balloon-like method to estimate the impacts of this method on chemical transport. We find significant differences in sensitive regions of the stratosphere.
William R. Hobbs, Andrew R. Klekociuk, and Yuhang Pan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14757–14768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14757-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14757-2020, 2020
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Reanalysis products are an invaluable tool for representing variability and long-term trends in regions with limited in situ data. However, validation of these products is difficult because of that lack of station data. Here we present a novel assessment of eight reanalyses over the polar Southern Ocean, leveraging the close relationship between trends in sea ice cover and surface air temperature, that provides clear guidance on the most reliable product for Antarctic research.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
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A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
Rei Chemke, Michael Previdi, Mark R. England, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
The Cryosphere, 14, 4135–4144, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4135-2020, 2020
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The increase in Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB, precipitation vs. evaporation/sublimation) is projected to mitigate sea-level rise. Here we show that nearly half of this increase over the 20th century is attributed to stratospheric ozone depletion and ozone-depleting substance (ODS) emissions. Our results suggest that the phaseout of ODS by the Montreal Protocol, and the recovery of stratospheric ozone, will act to decrease the SMB over the 21st century and the mitigation of sea-level rise.
Lorenzo M. Polvani and Suzana J. Camargo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13687–13700, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13687-2020, 2020
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On the basis of questionable early studies, it is widely believed that low-latitude volcanic eruptions cause winter warming over Eurasia. However, we here demonstrate that the winter warming over Eurasia following the 1883 Krakatau eruption was unremarkable and, in all likelihood, unrelated to that eruption. Confirming similar findings for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, the new research demonstrates that no detectable Eurasian winter warming is to be expected after eruptions of similar magnitude.
Marc Mallet, Fabien Solmon, Pierre Nabat, Nellie Elguindi, Fabien Waquet, Dominique Bouniol, Andrew Mark Sayer, Kerry Meyer, Romain Roehrig, Martine Michou, Paquita Zuidema, Cyrille Flamant, Jens Redemann, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13191–13216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13191-2020, 2020
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This paper presents numerical simulations using two regional climate models to study the impact of biomass fire plumes from central Africa on the radiative balance of this region. The results indicate that biomass fires can either warm the regional climate when they are located above low clouds or cool it when they are located above land. They can also alter sea and land surface temperatures by decreasing solar radiation at the surface. Finally, they can also modify the atmospheric dynamics.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13011–13022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, 2020
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Decadal trends and variations in OH are critical for understanding atmospheric CH4 evolution. We quantify the impacts of OH trends and variations on the CH4 budget by conducting CH4 inversions on a decadal scale with an ensemble of OH fields. We find the negative OH anomalies due to enhanced fires can reduce the optimized CH4 emissions by up to 10 Tg yr−1 during El Niño years and the positive OH trend from 1986 to 2010 results in a ∼ 23 Tg yr−1 additional increase in optimized CH4 emissions.
David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Simone Tilmes, Guang Zeng, Lee T. Murray, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Sungbo Shim, Larry W. Horowitz, Lori T. Sentman, and Louisa Emmons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12905–12920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, 2020
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We present historical trends in atmospheric oxidizing capacity (OC) since 1850 from the latest generation of global climate models and compare these with estimates from measurements. OC controls levels of many key reactive gases, including methane (CH4). We find small model trends up to 1980, then increases of about 9 % up to 2014, disagreeing with (uncertain) measurement-based trends. Major drivers of OC trends are emissions of CH4, NOx, and CO; these will be important for future CH4 trends.
Alina Fiehn, Julian Kostinek, Maximilian Eckl, Theresa Klausner, Michał Gałkowski, Jinxuan Chen, Christoph Gerbig, Thomas Röckmann, Hossein Maazallahi, Martina Schmidt, Piotr Korbeń, Jarosław Neçki, Pawel Jagoda, Norman Wildmann, Christian Mallaun, Rostyslav Bun, Anna-Leah Nickl, Patrick Jöckel, Andreas Fix, and Anke Roiger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12675–12695, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12675-2020, 2020
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A severe reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to fulfill the Paris Agreement. We use aircraft- and ground-based in situ observations of trace gases and wind speed from two flights over the Upper Silesian Coal Basin, Poland, for independent emission estimation. The derived methane emission estimates are within the range of emission inventories, carbon dioxide estimates are in the lower range and carbon monoxide emission estimates are slightly higher than emission inventory values.
Markus Kilian, Sabine Brinkop, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11697–11715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11697-2020, 2020
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After the volcanic eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991, ozone decreased in the tropics and increased in the midlatitudes and polar regions for 1 year. The change in the ozone column is solely a result of the volcanic heating, followed by an ozone decrease in the higher latitudes. This is caused by the volcanic aerosol, which changes the heterogeneous chemistry and thus the catalytic ozone loss cycles. Vertical transport of water vapour is enhanced by volcanic heating and increases methane.
Hiroshi Yamashita, Feijia Yin, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, Sigrun Matthes, Bastian Kern, Katrin Dahlmann, and Christine Frömming
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4869–4890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4869-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4869-2020, 2020
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This paper describes the updated submodel AirTraf 2.0 which simulates global air traffic in the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. Nine aircraft routing options have been integrated, including contrail avoidance, minimum economic costs, and minimum climate impact. Example simulations reveal characteristics of different routing options on air traffic performances. The consistency of the AirTraf simulations is verified with literature data.
Jessica Oehrlein, Gabriel Chiodo, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10531–10544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10531-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10531-2020, 2020
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Winter winds in the stratosphere 10–50 km above the surface impact climate at the surface. Prior studies suggest that this interaction between the stratosphere and the surface is affected by ozone. We compare two ways of including ozone in computer simulations of climate. One method is more realistic but more expensive. We find that the method of including ozone in simulations affects the surface climate when the stratospheric winds are unusually weak but not when they are unusually strong.
Matt Amos, Paul J. Young, J. Scott Hosking, Jean-François Lamarque, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, David A. Plummer, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9961–9977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, 2020
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We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models. To do so, we employ a method, more advanced and skilful than the current multi-model mean standard, which is applicable to other ensemble analyses. It calculates the performance and similarity of the models, which we then use to weight the model. Calculating model similarity allows us to account for models which are constructed from similar components.
William T. Ball, Gabriel Chiodo, Marta Abalos, Justin Alsing, and Andrea Stenke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9737–9752, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020, 2020
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Recent lower stratospheric ozone decreases remain unexplained. We show that chemistry–climate models are not generally able to reproduce mid-latitude ozone and water vapour changes. Our analysis of observations provides evidence that climate change may be responsible for the ozone trends. While model projections suggest that extratropical ozone should recover by 2100, our study raises questions about their efficacy in simulating lower stratospheric changes in this region.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
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The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Veronika Eyring, Lisa Bock, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Omar Bellprat, Björn Brötz, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nuno Carvalhais, Irene Cionni, Nicola Cortesi, Bas Crezee, Edouard L. Davin, Paolo Davini, Kevin Debeire, Lee de Mora, Clara Deser, David Docquier, Paul Earnshaw, Carsten Ehbrecht, Bettina K. Gier, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Paul Goodman, Stefan Hagemann, Steven Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Alasdair Hunter, Christopher Kadow, Stephan Kindermann, Sujan Koirala, Nikolay Koldunov, Quentin Lejeune, Valerio Lembo, Tomas Lovato, Valerio Lucarini, François Massonnet, Benjamin Müller, Amarjiit Pandde, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Adam Phillips, Valeriu Predoi, Joellen Russell, Alistair Sellar, Federico Serva, Tobias Stacke, Ranjini Swaminathan, Verónica Torralba, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, Katja Weigel, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3383–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, 2020
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility.
W. John R. French, Andrew R. Klekociuk, and Frank J. Mulligan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8691–8708, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8691-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8691-2020, 2020
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We explore a quasi-quadrennial oscillation (QQO; 3–4 K amplitude, ~ 4-year period) in mesopause region temperatures observed in 24 years of hydroxyl airglow measurements over Davis, Antarctica (68° S, 78° E). Correlation and composite analysis using meteorological reanalysis and satellite data reveals complex patterns on the QQO timescale in both hemispheres. Modulation of the meridional circulation, linked to the propagation of gravity waves, plays a significant role in producing the QQO response.
Eliane Maillard Barras, Alexander Haefele, Liliane Nguyen, Fiona Tummon, William T. Ball, Eugene V. Rozanov, Rolf Rüfenacht, Klemens Hocke, Leonie Bernet, Niklaus Kämpfer, Gerald Nedoluha, and Ian Boyd
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8453–8471, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8453-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8453-2020, 2020
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To determine the part of the variability of the long-term ozone profile trends coming from measurement timing, we estimate microwave radiometer trends for each hour of the day with a multiple linear regression model. The variation in the trend with local solar time is not significant at the 95 % confidence level either in the stratosphere or in the low mesosphere. We conclude that systematic sampling differences between instruments cannot explain significant differences in trend estimates.
Pierre Nabat, Samuel Somot, Christophe Cassou, Marc Mallet, Martine Michou, Dominique Bouniol, Bertrand Decharme, Thomas Drugé, Romain Roehrig, and David Saint-Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8315–8349, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8315-2020, 2020
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The present work aims at better understanding regional climate–aerosol interactions over the Euro-Mediterranean region by studying the relationships between aerosols and atmospheric circulation. Based on 40-year regional climate simulations (1979–2018), our results show the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in driving the interannual aerosol variability, and that of weather regimes for the daily variability, with ensuing effects on shortwave surface radiation and surface temperature.
Prodromos Zanis, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Robert J. Allen, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Jason Cole, Ben Johnson, Makoto Deushi, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Adriana Sima, Michael Schulz, Toshihiko Takemura, and Konstantinos Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8381–8404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, 2020
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In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014.
Mariano Mertens, Astrid Kerkweg, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, and Robert Sausen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7843–7873, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7843-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7843-2020, 2020
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We investigate the contribution of land transport emissions to ozone and ozone precursors in Europe and Germany. Our results show that land transport emissions are one of the most important contributors to reactive nitrogen in Europe. The contribution to ozone is in the range of 8 % to 16 % and varies strongly for different seasons. The hots-pots with the largest ozone concentrations are the Po Valley, while the largest concentration to reactive nitrogen is located mainly in western Europe.
Vidya Varma, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Field, Kalli Furtado, Jonny Williams, and Patrick Hyder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7741–7751, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7741-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7741-2020, 2020
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The present generation of global climate models has an insufficiently reflected short-wave radiation, especially over the Southern Ocean. This leads to an excessive heating of the ocean surface in the model, creating sea surface temperature biases and subsequent problems with atmospheric dynamics. Misrepresentation of clouds could be attributed to this radiation bias; we try to address this issue by slowing the growth rate of ice crystals and improving the supercooled liquid clouds in the model.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Vincenzo Rizi, Marco Iarlori, Irene Cionni, Ilaria Quaglia, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando Garcia, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-François Lamarque, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Tatsuya Nagashima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David Plummer, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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In this work we analyse the trend in ozone profiles taken at L'Aquila (Italy, 42.4° N) for seventeen years, between 2000 and 2016 and compare them against already available measured ozone trends. We try to understand and explain the observed trends at various heights in light of the simulations from seventeen different model, highlighting the contribution of changes in circulation and chemical ozone loss during this time period.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
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The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Markus Kunze, Tim Kruschke, Ulrike Langematz, Miriam Sinnhuber, Thomas Reddmann, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6991–7019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6991-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6991-2020, 2020
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Modelling the response of the atmosphere and its constituents to 11-year solar variations is subject to a certain uncertainty arising from the solar irradiance data set used in the chemistry–climate model (CCM) and the applied CCM itself.
This study reveals significant influences from both sources on the variations in the solar response in the stratosphere and mesosphere.
However, there are also regions where the random, unexplained part of the variations in the solar response is largest.
Marta Abalos, Clara Orbe, Douglas E. Kinnison, David Plummer, Luke D. Oman, Patrick Jöckel, Olaf Morgenstern, Rolando R. Garcia, Guang Zeng, Kane A. Stone, and Martin Dameris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6883–6901, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, 2020
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A set of state-of-the art chemistry–climate models is used to examine future changes in downward transport from the stratosphere, a key contributor to tropospheric ozone. The acceleration of the stratospheric circulation results in increased stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. In the subtropics, downward advection into the troposphere is enhanced due to climate change. At higher latitudes, the ozone reservoir above the tropopause is enlarged due to the stronger circulation and ozone recovery.
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Simon P. Alexander, John J. Cassano, Sally Garrett, Jamie Halla, Sean Hartery, Mike J. Harvey, Simon Parsons, Graeme Plank, Vidya Varma, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6607–6630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, 2020
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We evaluate clouds over the Southern Ocean in the climate model HadGEM3 and reanalysis MERRA-2 using ship-based ceilometer and radiosonde observations. We find the models underestimate cloud cover by 18–25 %, with clouds below 2 km dominant in reality but lacking in the models. We find a strong link between clouds, atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature in observations but not in the models, implying that sub-grid processes do not generate enough cloud in response to these conditions.
Junhua Liu, Jose M. Rodriguez, Luke D. Oman, Anne R. Douglass, Mark A. Olsen, and Lu Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6417–6433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6417-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6417-2020, 2020
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Our paper quantifies and identifies the importance of stratospheric ozone influence on the tropospheric ozone IAV in Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes. Our analysis provides an in-depth understanding of how 3-D dynamics influences the O3 redistribution in the troposphere. These findings are particularly important considering the potential changes in these dynamical conditions in the future as a result of climate change
W. John R. French, Frank J. Mulligan, and Andrew R. Klekociuk
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6379–6394, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6379-2020, 2020
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In this study, we analyse 24 years of atmospheric temperatures from the mesopause region (~87 km altitude) derived from ground-based spectrometer observations of hydroxyl airglow at Davis station, Antarctica (68° S, 78° E). These data are used to quantify the effect of the solar cycle and the long-term trend due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions on the atmosphere at this level. A record-low winter-average temperature is reported for 2018 and comparisons are made with satellite observations.
Stacey M. Frith, Pawan K. Bhartia, Luke D. Oman, Natalya A. Kramarova, Richard D. McPeters, and Gordon J. Labow
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 2733–2749, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2733-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2733-2020, 2020
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We use the NASA GEOS-GMI chemistry climate model to construct a climatology of stratospheric ozone diurnal variations as a function of latitude, pressure and month, which can be used in a variety of data analysis tasks involving ozone observations made at different times of the day. The climatology compares well with previous modeling simulations and available observations, and to the authors' knowledge is the first characterization of the diurnal cycle available for general ozone data analyses.
Peter H. Zimmermann, Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer, Andrea Pozzer, Patrick Jöckel, Franziska Winterstein, Andreas Zahn, Sander Houweling, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5787–5809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5787-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5787-2020, 2020
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The atmospheric abundance of the greenhouse gas methane is determined by interacting emission sources and sinks in a dynamic global environment. In this study, its global budget from 1997 to 2016 is simulated with a general circulation model using emission estimates of 11 source categories. The model results are evaluated against 17 ground station and 320 intercontinental flight observation series. Deviations are used to re-scale the emission quantities with the aim of matching observations.
Anna-Leah Nickl, Mariano Mertens, Anke Roiger, Andreas Fix, Axel Amediek, Alina Fiehn, Christoph Gerbig, Michal Galkowski, Astrid Kerkweg, Theresa Klausner, Maximilian Eckl, and Patrick Jöckel
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1925–1943, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1925-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1925-2020, 2020
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Based on the global and regional chemistry–climate model system MECO(n), we implemented a forecast system to support the planning of measurement campaign research flights with chemical weather forecasts. We applied this system for the first time to provide 6 d forecasts in support of the CoMet 1.0
campaign targeting methane emitted from coal mining ventilation shafts in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin in Poland. We describe the new forecast system and evaluate its forecast skill.
Timo Keber, Harald Bönisch, Carl Hartick, Marius Hauck, Fides Lefrancois, Florian Obersteiner, Akima Ringsdorf, Nils Schohl, Tanja Schuck, Ryan Hossaini, Phoebe Graf, Patrick Jöckel, and Andreas Engel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4105–4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4105-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4105-2020, 2020
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In this paper we summarize observations of short-lived halocarbons in the tropopause region. We show that, especially during winter, the levels of short-lived bromine gases at the extratropical tropopause are higher than at the tropical tropopause. We discuss the impact of the distributions on stratospheric bromine levels and compare our observations to two models with four different emission scenarios.
Oliver Wild, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Fiona O'Connor, Jean-François Lamarque, Edmund M. Ryan, and Lindsay Lee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4047–4058, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4047-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4047-2020, 2020
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Global models of tropospheric chemistry and transport show a persistent diversity in results that has not been fully explained. We demonstrate the first use of global sensitivity analysis consistently across three independent models to explore these differences and reveal both clear similarities and surprising differences which have important implications for our assessment of future atmospheric composition change.
Clara Orbe, David A. Plummer, Darryn W. Waugh, Huang Yang, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas E. Kinnison, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Makoto Deushi, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Wuhu Feng, and Slimane Bekki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3809–3840, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3809-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3809-2020, 2020
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Atmospheric composition is strongly influenced by global-scale winds that are not always properly simulated in computer models. A common approach to correct for this bias is to relax or
nudgeto the observed winds. Here we systematically evaluate how well this technique performs across a large suite of chemistry–climate models in terms of its ability to reproduce key aspects of both the tropospheric and stratospheric circulations.
Alexander T. Archibald, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Fraser Dennison, Sandip S. Dhomse, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Alan J. Hewitt, Richard S. Hill, Colin E. Johnson, James Keeble, Marcus O. Köhler, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Carlos Ordóñez, Richard J. Pope, Steven T. Rumbold, Maria R. Russo, Nicholas H. Savage, Alistair Sellar, Marc Stringer, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1223–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, 2020
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Here we present a description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). UKCA StratTrop represents a substantial step forward compared to previous versions of UKCA. We show here that it is fully suited to the challenges of representing interactions in a coupled Earth system model and identify key areas and components for future development that will make it even better in the future.
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
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Differences in methane lifetime among global models are large and poorly understood. We use a neural network method and simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative to quantify the factors influencing methane lifetime spread among models and variations over time. UV photolysis, tropospheric ozone, and nitrogen oxides drive large model differences, while the same factors plus specific humidity contribute to a decreasing trend in methane lifetime between 1980 and 2015.
Aryeh Feinberg, Moustapha Maliki, Andrea Stenke, Bruno Sudret, Thomas Peter, and Lenny H. E. Winkel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1363–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1363-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1363-2020, 2020
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The amount of the micronutrient selenium in food largely depends on the amount and form of selenium in soil. The atmosphere acts as a source of selenium to soils through deposition, yet little information is available about atmospheric selenium cycling. Therefore, we built the first global atmospheric selenium model. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis we determine that selenium can be transported thousands of kilometers and that measurements of selenium emissions should be prioritized.
Mariano Mertens, Astrid Kerkweg, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, and Robert Sausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 363–383, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-363-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-363-2020, 2020
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This study investigates if ozone source apportionment results using a tagged tracer approach depend on the resolutions of the applied model and/or emission inventory. For this we apply a global to regional atmospheric chemistry model, which allows us to compare the results on global and regional scales. Our results show that differences on the continental scale (e.g. Europe) are rather small (10 %); on the regional scale, however, differences of up to 30 % were found.
Hideaki Nakajima, Isao Murata, Yoshihiro Nagahama, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Kosuke Saeki, Takeshi Kinase, Masanori Takeda, Yoshihiro Tomikawa, Eric Dupuy, and Nicholas B. Jones
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1043–1074, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1043-2020, 2020
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This paper presents temporal evolution of stratospheric chlorine and minor species related to Antarctic ozone depletion, based on FTIR measurements at Syowa Station, and satellite measurements by MLS and MIPAS in 2007 and 2011. After chlorine reservoir species were processed on PSCs and active ClO was formed, different chlorine deactivation pathways into reservoir species were identified, depending on the relative location of Syowa Station to the polar vortex boundary.
Le Kuai, Kevin W. Bowman, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Makoto Deushi, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Fabien Paulot, Sarah Strode, Andrew Conley, Jean-François Lamarque, Patrick Jöckel, David A. Plummer, Luke D. Oman, Helen Worden, Susan Kulawik, David Paynter, Andrea Stenke, and Markus Kunze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 281–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-281-2020, 2020
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The tropospheric ozone increase from pre-industrial to the present day leads to a radiative forcing. The top-of-atmosphere outgoing fluxes at the ozone band are controlled by ozone, water vapor, and temperature. We demonstrate a method to attribute the models’ flux biases to these key players using satellite-constrained instantaneous radiative kernels. The largest spread between models is found in the tropics, mainly driven by ozone and then water vapor.
Laura E. Revell, Stefanie Kremser, Sean Hartery, Mike Harvey, Jane P. Mulcahy, Jonny Williams, Olaf Morgenstern, Adrian J. McDonald, Vidya Varma, Leroy Bird, and Alex Schuddeboom
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15447–15466, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15447-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15447-2019, 2019
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Aerosols over the Southern Ocean consist primarily of sea salt and sulfate, yet are seasonally biased in our model. We test three sulfate chemistry schemes to investigate DMS oxidation, which forms sulfate aerosol. Simulated cloud droplet number concentrations improve using more complex sulfate chemistry. We also show that a new sea spray aerosol source function, developed from measurements made on a recent Southern Ocean research voyage, improves the model's simulation of aerosol optical depth.
Neil C. Swart, Jason N. S. Cole, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Mike Lazare, John F. Scinocca, Nathan P. Gillett, James Anstey, Vivek Arora, James R. Christian, Sarah Hanna, Yanjun Jiao, Warren G. Lee, Fouad Majaess, Oleg A. Saenko, Christian Seiler, Clint Seinen, Andrew Shao, Michael Sigmond, Larry Solheim, Knut von Salzen, Duo Yang, and Barbara Winter
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4823–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019, 2019
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The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) is a global model developed to simulate historical climate change and variability, to make centennial-scale projections of future climate, and to produce initialized seasonal and decadal predictions. This paper describes the model components and quantifies the model performance. CanESM5 simulations contribute to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and will be employed for climate science applications in Canada.
Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, and Matthias Nützel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13759–13771, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13759-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13759-2019, 2019
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A chemistry–climate model (CCM) study is performed, investigating the consequences of a constant CFC-11 surface mixing ratio for stratospheric ozone in the future. The total column ozone is particularly affected in both polar regions in winter and spring. It turns out that the calculated ozone changes, especially in the upper stratosphere, are smaller than expected. In this attitudinal region the additional ozone depletion due to the catalysis by reactive chlorine is partly compensated for.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Sophie Szopa, Ann R. Stavert, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Virginie Marécal, Fiona M. O'Connor, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13701–13723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, 2019
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The role of hydroxyl radical changes in methane trends is debated, hindering our understanding of the methane cycle. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical may influence methane abundance in the atmosphere based on the inter-model comparison of hydroxyl radical fields and model simulations of CH4 abundance with different hydroxyl radical scenarios during 2000–2016. We show that hydroxyl radical changes could contribute up to 54 % of model-simulated methane biases.
Samuel Rémy, Zak Kipling, Johannes Flemming, Olivier Boucher, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Alessio Bozzo, Melanie Ades, Vincent Huijnen, Angela Benedetti, Richard Engelen, Vincent-Henri Peuch, and Jean-Jacques Morcrette
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4627–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4627-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4627-2019, 2019
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This article describes the IFS-AER aerosol module used operationally in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) cycle 45R1, operated by the ECMWF in the framework of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Services (CAMS). We describe the different parameterizations for aerosol sources, sinks, and how the aerosols are integrated in the larger atmospheric composition forecasting system. The skill of PM and AOD simulations against observations is improved compared to the older cycle 40R2.
Andreas Luther, Ralph Kleinschek, Leon Scheidweiler, Sara Defratyka, Mila Stanisavljevic, Andreas Forstmaier, Alexandru Dandocsi, Sebastian Wolff, Darko Dubravica, Norman Wildmann, Julian Kostinek, Patrick Jöckel, Anna-Leah Nickl, Theresa Klausner, Frank Hase, Matthias Frey, Jia Chen, Florian Dietrich, Jarosław Nȩcki, Justyna Swolkień, Andreas Fix, Anke Roiger, and André Butz
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 5217–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5217-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5217-2019, 2019
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Methane ventilated from hard coal mines in the Upper Silesian
Coal Basin in Poland is measured with a mobile Fourier transform spectrometer EM27/SUN. The instrument was mounted on a truck driving in stop-and-go patterns downwind of the methane sources. The emissions are estimated with the cross-sectional flux method. Calculated emissions are in broad agreement with the E-PRTR database. Wind-related errors on the methane estimates dominate the error budget and typically amount to 20 %.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Hella Garny, Douglas Kinnison, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Makoto Deushi, Rolando R. Garcia, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11559–11586, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, 2019
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We perform the first multi-model comparison of the impact of nudged meteorology on the stratospheric residual circulation (RC) in chemistry–climate models. Nudging meteorology does not constrain the mean strength of RC compared to free-running simulations, and despite the lack of agreement in the mean circulation, nudging tightly constrains the inter-annual variability in the tropical upward mass flux in the lower stratosphere. In summary, nudging strongly affects the representation of RC.
Aryeh Feinberg, Timofei Sukhodolov, Bei-Ping Luo, Eugene Rozanov, Lenny H. E. Winkel, Thomas Peter, and Andrea Stenke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3863–3887, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3863-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3863-2019, 2019
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We have improved several aspects of atmospheric sulfur cycling in SOCOL-AER, an aerosol–chemistry–climate model. The newly implemented features in SOCOL-AERv2 include interactive deposition schemes, improved sulfur mass conservation, and expanded tropospheric chemistry. SOCOL-AERv2 shows better agreement with stratospheric aerosol observations and sulfur deposition networks compared to SOCOL-AERv1. SOCOL-AERv2 can be used to study impacts of sulfate aerosol on climate, chemistry, and ecosystems.
Yuke Wang, Valerii Shulga, Gennadi Milinevsky, Aleksey Patoka, Oleksandr Evtushevsky, Andrew Klekociuk, Wei Han, Asen Grytsai, Dmitry Shulga, Valery Myshenko, and Oleksandr Antyufeyev
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10303–10317, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10303-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10303-2019, 2019
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The major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) dramatically changed atmospheric conditions. This event is accompanied by a sharp increase in the polar stratosphere temperature, zonal wind reverse, and strong changes in the polar mesosphere. These changes affect even the midlatitude mesosphere, which is not widely covered by observations. Our newly installed microwave radiometer allowed for studying mesospheric zonal wind and CO variations to understand the SSW 2018 effects at midlatitudes.
Kévin Lamy, Thierry Portafaix, Béatrice Josse, Colette Brogniez, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Hassan Bencherif, Laura Revell, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Ben Liley, Virginie Marecal, Olaf Morgenstern, Andrea Stenke, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Neil Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Glauco Di Genova, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rong-Ming Hu, Douglas Kinnison, Michael Kotkamp, Richard McKenzie, Martine Michou, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10087–10110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, 2019
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In this study, we simulate the ultraviolet radiation evolution during the 21st century on Earth's surface using the output from several numerical models which participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. We present four possible futures which depend on greenhouse gases emissions. The role of ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases and aerosols are investigated. Our results emphasize the important role of aerosols for future ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere.
Pavle Arsenovic, Alessandro Damiani, Eugene Rozanov, Bernd Funke, Andrea Stenke, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9485–9494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9485-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9485-2019, 2019
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Low-energy electrons (LEE) are the dominant source of odd nitrogen, which destroys ozone, in the mesosphere and stratosphere in polar winter in the geomagnetically active periods. However, the observed stratospheric ozone anomalies can be reproduced only when accounting for both low- and middle-range energy electrons (MEE) in the chemistry-climate model. Ozone changes may induce further dynamical and thermal changes in the atmosphere. We recommend including both LEE and MEE in climate models.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Froila M. Palmeiro, David Barriopedro, Natalia Calvo, Ulrike Langematz, and Kiyotaka Shibata
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9469–9484, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9469-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9469-2019, 2019
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Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are abrupt rises in the wintertime polar stratosphere that also affect the troposphere. Their study is hampered by the limited observations in the stratosphere and mostly relies on reanalyses, i.e., models that include observations. Here we compare the representation of SSWs by the most used reanalyses. SSW results are consistent across reanalyses but some differences are found, in particular before the satellite era.
Ohad Harari, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9253–9268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, 2019
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Ozone depletion in the Antarctic has been shown to influence surface conditions, but the effects of ozone depletion in the Arctic on surface climate are unclear. We show that Arctic ozone does influence surface climate in both polar regions and tropical regions, though the proximate cause of these surface impacts is not yet clear.
Sophie Szopa, Rémi Thiéblemont, Slimane Bekki, Svetlana Botsyun, and Pierre Sepulchre
Clim. Past, 15, 1187–1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1187-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1187-2019, 2019
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The stratospheric ozone layer plays a key role in atmospheric thermal structure and circulation. Here, with a chemistry–climate model, we evaluate the potential role of stratospheric ozone chemistry in the case of Eocene hot conditions. Our results suggest that using stratospheric ozone calculated by the modeled Eocene conditions instead of the commonly specified preindustrial ozone distribution could change the simulated global surface air temperature by as much as 14 %.
Jamie M. Kelly, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, Graham W. Mann, Hugh Coe, and Dantong Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2539–2569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2539-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2539-2019, 2019
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This study develops the representation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) within a global chemistry–climate model (UKCA). Both dry and wet deposition within the UKCA model are extended to consider precursors of SOA. The oxidation mechanism describing SOA formation is also extended by adding a reaction intermediate, with SOA yields that are dependent on oxidant concentrations.
Petr Šácha, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Petr Pišoft, Simone Dietmüller, Laura de la Torre, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Neal Butchart, and Juan A. Añel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7627–7647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7627-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7627-2019, 2019
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Climate models robustly project a Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) acceleration in the course of climate change. Analyzing mean age of stratospheric air (AoA) from a subset of climate projection simulations, we find a remarkable agreement in simulating the largest AoA trends in the extratropical stratosphere. This is shown to be related with the upward shift of the circulation, resulting in a so-called stratospheric shrinkage, which could be one of the so-far-omitted BDC acceleration drivers.
Zongbo Shi, Tuan Vu, Simone Kotthaus, Roy M. Harrison, Sue Grimmond, Siyao Yue, Tong Zhu, James Lee, Yiqun Han, Matthias Demuzere, Rachel E. Dunmore, Lujie Ren, Di Liu, Yuanlin Wang, Oliver Wild, James Allan, W. Joe Acton, Janet Barlow, Benjamin Barratt, David Beddows, William J. Bloss, Giulia Calzolai, David Carruthers, David C. Carslaw, Queenie Chan, Lia Chatzidiakou, Yang Chen, Leigh Crilley, Hugh Coe, Tie Dai, Ruth Doherty, Fengkui Duan, Pingqing Fu, Baozhu Ge, Maofa Ge, Daobo Guan, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, Kebin He, Mathew Heal, Dwayne Heard, C. Nicholas Hewitt, Michael Hollaway, Min Hu, Dongsheng Ji, Xujiang Jiang, Rod Jones, Markus Kalberer, Frank J. Kelly, Louisa Kramer, Ben Langford, Chun Lin, Alastair C. Lewis, Jie Li, Weijun Li, Huan Liu, Junfeng Liu, Miranda Loh, Keding Lu, Franco Lucarelli, Graham Mann, Gordon McFiggans, Mark R. Miller, Graham Mills, Paul Monk, Eiko Nemitz, Fionna O'Connor, Bin Ouyang, Paul I. Palmer, Carl Percival, Olalekan Popoola, Claire Reeves, Andrew R. Rickard, Longyi Shao, Guangyu Shi, Dominick Spracklen, David Stevenson, Yele Sun, Zhiwei Sun, Shu Tao, Shengrui Tong, Qingqing Wang, Wenhua Wang, Xinming Wang, Xuejun Wang, Zifang Wang, Lianfang Wei, Lisa Whalley, Xuefang Wu, Zhijun Wu, Pinhua Xie, Fumo Yang, Qiang Zhang, Yanli Zhang, Yuanhang Zhang, and Mei Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7519–7546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, 2019
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APHH-Beijing is a collaborative international research programme to study the sources, processes and health effects of air pollution in Beijing. This introduction to the special issue provides an overview of (i) the APHH-Beijing programme, (ii) the measurement and modelling activities performed as part of it and (iii) the air quality and meteorological conditions during joint intensive field campaigns as a core activity within APHH-Beijing.
Franziska Winterstein, Fabian Tanalski, Patrick Jöckel, Martin Dameris, and Michael Ponater
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7151–7163, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7151-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7151-2019, 2019
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The atmospheric concentrations of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas methane are predicted to rise in the future. In this paper we investigate how very strong methane concentrations will impact the atmosphere. We analyse two experiments, one with doubled and one with quintupled methane concentrations and focus on the rapid atmospheric changes before the ocean adjusts to the induced
forcing. In particular these are changes in temperature, ozone, the hydroxyl radical and stratospheric water vapour.
Sabine Brinkop and Patrick Jöckel
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1991–2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1991-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1991-2019, 2019
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We have extended ATTILA (Atmospheric Tracer Transport in a LAgrangian model), a Lagrangian tracer transport scheme which is online coupled to the global ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, with a combination of newly developed and modified physical routines and new diagnostic and infrastructure submodels. The results show an improvement of the tracer transport into and within the stratosphere due to the newly implemented diabatic vertical velocity.
Lorenzo M. Polvani, Antara Banerjee, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6351–6366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6351-2019, 2019
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This study provides compelling new evidence that the surface winter warming observed over the Northern Hemisphere continents following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo was, very likely, completely unrelated to the eruption. This result has implications for earlier eruptions, as the evidence presented here demonstrates that the surface signal of even the very largest known eruptions may be swamped by the internal variability at high latitudes.
David Walters, Anthony J. Baran, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Kalli Furtado, Peter Hill, Adrian Lock, James Manners, Cyril Morcrette, Jane Mulcahy, Claudio Sanchez, Chris Smith, Rachel Stratton, Warren Tennant, Lorenzo Tomassini, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Simon Vosper, Martin Willett, Jo Browse, Andrew Bushell, Kenneth Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Richard Essery, Nicola Gedney, Steven Hardiman, Ben Johnson, Colin Johnson, Andy Jones, Colin Jones, Graham Mann, Sean Milton, Heather Rumbold, Alistair Sellar, Masashi Ujiie, Michael Whitall, Keith Williams, and Mohamed Zerroukat
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1909–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, 2019
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Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application. We describe a recent iteration of these configurations, GA7/GL7, which includes new aerosol and snow schemes and addresses the four critical errors identified in GA6. GA7/GL7 will underpin the UK's contributions to CMIP6, and hence their documentation is important.
Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Susan E. Strahan, Kane A. Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5511–5528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019, 2019
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We evaluate the performance of a suite of models in simulating the large-scale transport from the northern midlatitudes to the Arctic using a CO-like idealized tracer. We find a large multi-model spread of the Arctic concentration of this CO-like tracer that is well correlated with the differences in the location of the midlatitude jet as well as the northern Hadley Cell edge. Our results suggest the Hadley Cell is key and zonal-mean transport by surface meridional flow needs better constraint.
Marc Mallet, Pierre Nabat, Paquita Zuidema, Jens Redemann, Andrew Mark Sayer, Martin Stengel, Sebastian Schmidt, Sabrina Cochrane, Sharon Burton, Richard Ferrare, Kerry Meyer, Pablo Saide, Hiren Jethva, Omar Torres, Robert Wood, David Saint Martin, Romain Roehrig, Christina Hsu, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4963–4990, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4963-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4963-2019, 2019
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The model is able to represent LWP but not the LCF. AOD is consistent over the continent but also over ocean (ACAOD). Differences are observed in SSA due to the absence of internal mixing in ALADIN-Climate. A significant regional gradient of the forcing at TOA is observed. An intense positive forcing is simulated over Gabon. Results highlight the significant effect of enhanced moisture on BBA extinction. The surface dimming modifies the energy budget.
Sandro Vattioni, Debra Weisenstein, David Keith, Aryeh Feinberg, Thomas Peter, and Andrea Stenke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4877-2019, 2019
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This study is among the first modeling studies on stratospheric sulfate geoengineering that interactively couple a size-resolved sectional aerosol module to well-described stratospheric chemistry and radiation schemes in a global 3-D chemistry–climate model. We found that compared with SO2 injection, the direct emission of aerosols results in more effective radiative forcing and that sensitivities to different injection strategies vary for different forms of injected sulfur.
Rolf Sander, Andreas Baumgaertner, David Cabrera-Perez, Franziska Frank, Sergey Gromov, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Hartwig Harder, Vincent Huijnen, Patrick Jöckel, Vlassis A. Karydis, Kyle E. Niemeyer, Andrea Pozzer, Hella Riede, Martin G. Schultz, Domenico Taraborrelli, and Sebastian Tauer
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1365–1385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1365-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1365-2019, 2019
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We present the atmospheric chemistry box model CAABA/MECCA which
now includes a number of new features: skeletal mechanism
reduction, the MOM chemical mechanism for volatile organic
compounds, an option to include reactions from the Master
Chemical Mechanism (MCM) and other chemical mechanisms, updated
isotope tagging, improved and new photolysis modules, and the new
feature of coexisting multiple chemistry mechanisms.
CAABA/MECCA is a community model published under the GPL.
Fraser Dennison, James Keeble, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, and Xin Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1227–1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1227-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1227-2019, 2019
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Two developments are made to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) model to improve simulation of stratospheric ozone. The first is the addition of a solar cycle. The influence on ozone from the solar cycle is found to be 1–2 %, which is consistent with other studies. The second is to the heterogeneous chemistry, the most significant change being the addition of reactions involving bromine species. This was shown to reduce ozone biases relative to observations in most regions.
Ryan S. Williams, Michaela I. Hegglin, Brian J. Kerridge, Patrick Jöckel, Barry G. Latter, and David A. Plummer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3589–3620, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3589-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3589-2019, 2019
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Tropospheric ozone has important implications for air quality and climate change but is poorly understood at a regional and seasonal level. Analysis of model simulations indicates that downward transport of ozone from the stratosphere has a larger influence than previously thought (as much as ~50 % even near the surface). Recent estimated changes in tropospheric ozone (1980–89 to 2001–10) are generally positive, with substantial attribution from the stratosphere identified over some regions.
Jerry R. Ziemke, Luke D. Oman, Sarah A. Strode, Anne R. Douglass, Mark A. Olsen, Richard D. McPeters, Pawan K. Bhartia, Lucien Froidevaux, Gordon J. Labow, Jacquie C. Witte, Anne M. Thompson, David P. Haffner, Natalya A. Kramarova, Stacey M. Frith, Liang-Kang Huang, Glen R. Jaross, Colin J. Seftor, Mathew T. Deland, and Steven L. Taylor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3257–3269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3257-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3257-2019, 2019
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Both a 38-year merged satellite record of tropospheric ozone from TOMS/OMI/MLS/OMPS and a MERRA-2 GMI model simulation show large increases of 6–7 Dobson units from the Near East to India–East Asia and eastward over the Pacific. These increases in tropospheric ozone are attributed to increases in pollution over the region over the last several decades. Secondary 38-year increases of 4–5 Dobson units with both GMI model and satellite measurements occur over central African–tropical Atlantic.
Kai-Lan Chang, Owen R. Cooper, J. Jason West, Marc L. Serre, Martin G. Schultz, Meiyun Lin, Virginie Marécal, Béatrice Josse, Makoto Deushi, Kengo Sudo, Junhua Liu, and Christoph A. Keller
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 955–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-955-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-955-2019, 2019
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We developed a new method for combining surface ozone observations from thousands of monitoring sites worldwide with the output from multiple atmospheric chemistry models. The result is a global surface ozone distribution with greater accuracy than any single model can achieve. We focused on an ozone metric relevant to human mortality caused by long-term ozone exposure. Our method can be applied to studies that quantify the impacts of ozone on human health and mortality.
Miko U. F. Kirschbaum, Guang Zeng, Fabiano Ximenes, Donna L. Giltrap, and John R. Zeldis
Biogeosciences, 16, 831–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-831-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-831-2019, 2019
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Globally, C is added to the atmosphere from fossil fuels and deforestation, balanced by ocean uptake and atmospheric increase. The difference (residual sink) is equated to plant uptake. But this omits cement carbonation; transport to oceans by dust; riverine organic C and volatile organics; and increased C in plastic, bitumen, wood, landfills, and lakes. Their inclusion reduces the residual sink from 3.6 to 2.1 GtC yr-1 and thus the inferred ability of the biosphere to alter human C emissions.
J. Christopher Kaiser, Johannes Hendricks, Mattia Righi, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Konrad Kandler, Bernadett Weinzierl, Daniel Sauer, Katharina Heimerl, Joshua P. Schwarz, Anne E. Perring, and Thomas Popp
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 541–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-541-2019, 2019
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The implementation of the aerosol microphysics submodel MADE3 into the global atmospheric chemistry model EMAC is described and evaluated against an extensive pool of observational data, focusing on aerosol mass and number concentrations, size distributions, composition, and optical properties. EMAC (MADE3) is able to reproduce main aerosol properties reasonably well, in line with the performance of other global aerosol models.
Daniel T. McCoy, Paul R. Field, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Brian H. Kahn, Mark D. Zelinka, Chihiro Kodama, Thorsten Mauritsen, Benoit Vanniere, Malcolm Roberts, Pier L. Vidale, David Saint-Martin, Aurore Voldoire, Rein Haarsma, Adrian Hill, Ben Shipway, and Jonathan Wilkinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1147–1172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019, 2019
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The largest single source of uncertainty in the climate sensitivity predicted by global climate models is how much low-altitude clouds change as the climate warms. Models predict that the amount of liquid within and the brightness of low-altitude clouds increase in the extratropics with warming. We show that increased fluxes of moisture into extratropical storms in the midlatitudes explain the majority of the observed trend and the modeled increase in liquid water within these storms.
Roland Eichinger, Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Petr Šácha, Thomas Birner, Harald Bönisch, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Eugene Rozanov, Laura Revell, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 921–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, 2019
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To shed more light upon the changes in stratospheric circulation in the 21st century, climate projection simulations of 10 state-of-the-art global climate models, spanning from 1960 to 2100, are analyzed. The study shows that in addition to changes in transport, mixing also plays an important role in stratospheric circulation and that the properties of mixing vary over time. Furthermore, the influence of mixing is quantified and a dynamical framework is provided to understand the changes.
Tommaso Galeazzo, Slimane Bekki, Erwan Martin, Joël Savarino, and Stephen R. Arnold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17909–17931, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17909-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17909-2018, 2018
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Volcanic sulfur can have climatic impacts for the planet via sulfate aerosol formation, leading also to pollution events. We provide model constraints on tropospheric volcanic sulfate formation, with implications for its lifetime and impacts on regional air quality. Oxygen isotope investigations from our model suggest that in the poor tropospheric plumes of halogens, the O2/TMI sulfur oxidation pathway might significantly control sulfate production. The produced sulfate has no isotopic anomaly.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Fiona Tummon, Aryeh Feinberg, Eugene Rozanov, Thomas Peter, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Robyn Schofield, Kane Stone, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16155–16172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, 2018
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Global models such as those participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) consistently simulate biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We performed an advanced statistical analysis with one of the CCMI models to understand the cause of the bias. We found that emissions of ozone precursor gases are the dominant driver of the bias, implying either that the emissions are too large, or that the way in which the model handles emissions needs to be improved.
Arlene M. Fiore, Emily V. Fischer, George P. Milly, Shubha Pandey Deolal, Oliver Wild, Daniel A. Jaffe, Johannes Staehelin, Olivia E. Clifton, Dan Bergmann, William Collins, Frank Dentener, Ruth M. Doherty, Bryan N. Duncan, Bernd Fischer, Stefan Gilge, Peter G. Hess, Larry W. Horowitz, Alexandru Lupu, Ian A. MacKenzie, Rokjin Park, Ludwig Ries, Michael G. Sanderson, Martin G. Schultz, Drew T. Shindell, Martin Steinbacher, David S. Stevenson, Sophie Szopa, Christoph Zellweger, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15345–15361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, 2018
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We demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach for applying northern midlatitude mountaintop peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN) measurements and a multi-model ensemble during April to constrain the influence of continental-scale anthropogenic precursor emissions on PAN. Our findings imply a role for carefully coordinated multi-model ensembles in helping identify observations for discriminating among widely varying (and poorly constrained) model responses of atmospheric constituents to changes in emissions.
Pakawat Phalitnonkiat, Peter G. M. Hess, Mircea D. Grigoriu, Gennady Samorodnitsky, Wenxiu Sun, Ellie Beaudry, Simone Tilmes, Makato Deushi, Beatrice Josse, David Plummer, and Kengo Sudo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11927–11948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11927-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11927-2018, 2018
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The co-occurrence of heat waves and pollution events and the resulting high mortality rates emphasize the importance of the co-occurrence of pollution and temperature extremes. We analyze ozone and temperature extremes and their joint occurrence over the United States during the summer months (JJA) in measurement data and in model simulations of the present and future climates.
Birgit Hassler, Stefanie Kremser, Greg E. Bodeker, Jared Lewis, Kage Nesbit, Sean M. Davis, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip S. Dhomse, and Martin Dameris
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1473–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1473-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1473-2018, 2018
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Hauke Schmidt, Rémi Thiéblemont, Lon Hood, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, Daniel R. Marsh, Martine Michou, David Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Yousuke Yamashita, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11323–11343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, 2018
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The 11-year solar cycle is an important driver of climate variability. Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation affect atmospheric ozone, which in turn influences atmospheric temperatures. Constraining the impact of the solar cycle on ozone is therefore important for understanding climate variability. This study examines the representation of the solar influence on ozone in numerical models used to simulate past and future climate. We highlight important differences among model datasets.
Edmund Ryan, Oliver Wild, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Lindsay Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3131–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3131-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3131-2018, 2018
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Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) identifies which parameters of a model most affect its output. We performed GSA using statistical emulators as surrogates of two slow-running atmospheric chemistry transport models. Due to the high dimension of the model outputs, we considered two alternative methods: one that reduced the output dimension and one that did not require an emulator. The alternative methods accurately performed the GSA but were significantly faster than the emulator-only method.
Vivek K. Arora, Joe R. Melton, and David Plummer
Biogeosciences, 15, 4683–4709, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4683-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4683-2018, 2018
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Earth system models (ESMs) project future changes in climate in response to changes in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, before this can be achieved the natural fluxes of a given GHG must also be modelled. This paper evaluates the natural methane fluxes simulated by the CLASS-CTEM model (which is the land component of the Canadian ESM) against observations to show that the simulated methane emissions from wetlands and fires, and soil uptake of methane are realistic.
Franziska Frank, Patrick Jöckel, Sergey Gromov, and Martin Dameris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9955–9973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9955-2018, 2018
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It is frequently assumed that one methane molecule produces two water molecules. Applying various modeling concepts, we find that the yield of water from methane is vertically not constantly 2. In the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, transport of intermediate H2 molecules even led to a yield greater than 2. We conclude that for a realistic chemical source of stratospheric water vapor, one must also take other sources (H2), intermediates and the chemical removal of water into account.
Sergey Gromov, Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9831–9843, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9831-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9831-2018, 2018
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Using the observational data on 13C (CO) and 13C (CH4) from the extra-tropical Southern Hemisphere (ETSH) and EMAC model we (1) provide an independent, observation-based evaluation of Cl atom concentration variations in the ETSH throughout 1994–2000, (2) show that the role of tropospheric Cl as a sink of CH4 is seriously overestimated in the literature, (3) demonstrate that the 13C/12C ratio of CO is a sensitive indicator for the isotopic composition of reacted CH4 and therefore for its sources.
Timofei Sukhodolov, Jian-Xiong Sheng, Aryeh Feinberg, Bei-Ping Luo, Thomas Peter, Laura Revell, Andrea Stenke, Debra K. Weisenstein, and Eugene Rozanov
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2633–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2633-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2633-2018, 2018
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The Pinatubo eruption in 1991 is the strongest directly observed volcanic event. In a series of experiments, we simulate its influence on the stratospheric aerosol layer using a state-of-the-art aerosol–chemistry–climate model, SOCOL-AERv1.0, and compare our results to observations. We show that SOCOL-AER reproduces the most important atmospheric effects and can therefore be used to study the climate effects of future volcanic eruptions and geoengineering by artificial sulfate aerosol.
Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Frank J. Dentener, Yanko Davila, Louisa K. Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Gerd A. Folberth, Daven K. Henze, Jan E. Jonson, Terry J. Keating, Sudo Kengo, Meiyun Lin, Marianne Lund, Simone Tilmes, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8953–8978, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, 2018
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A simple parameterisation was developed in this study to provide a rapid assessment of the impacts and uncertainties associated with future emission control strategies by predicting changes to surface ozone air quality and near-term climate forcing of ozone. Future emissions scenarios based on currently implemented legislation are shown to worsen surface ozone air quality and enhance near-term climate warming, with changes in methane becoming increasingly important in the future.
Mizuo Kajino, Makoto Deushi, Tsuyoshi Thomas Sekiyama, Naga Oshima, Keiya Yumimoto, Taichu Yasumichi Tanaka, Joseph Ching, Akihiro Hashimoto, Tetsuya Yamamoto, Masaaki Ikegami, Akane Kamada, Makoto Miyashita, Yayoi Inomata, Shin-ichiro Shima, Kouji Adachi, Yuji Zaizen, Yasuhito Igarashi, Hiromasa Ueda, Takashi Maki, and Masao Mikami
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-128, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Hideaki Nakajima, Isao Murata, Yoshihiro Nagahama, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Kosuke Saeki, Masanori Takeda, Yoshihiro Tomikawa, and Nicholas B. Jones
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-505, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This paper presents characteristics of temporal evolution of stratospheric chlorine and minor species related to Antarctic ozone depletion, based on both ground-based FTIR and satellite measurements by MLS and MIPAS in 2007 and 2011. After chlorine reservoir species (HCl or ClONO2) were processed on PSCs and active ClO was formed, different chlorine deactivation pathways into reservoir species were identified, depending on availability of ambient available O3 and NOx amounts.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
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We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
Stefan Lossow, Dale F. Hurst, Karen H. Rosenlof, Gabriele P. Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Sabine Brinkop, Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, Doug E. Kinnison, Johannes Plieninger, David A. Plummer, Felix Ploeger, William G. Read, Ellis E. Remsberg, James M. Russell, and Mengchu Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8331–8351, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8331-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8331-2018, 2018
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Trend estimates of lower stratospheric H2O derived from the FPH observations at Boulder and a merged zonal mean satellite data set clearly differ for the time period from the late 1980s to 2010. We investigate if a sampling bias between Boulder and the zonal mean around the Boulder latitude can explain these trend discrepancies. Typically they are small and not sufficient to explain the trend discrepancies in the observational database.
Stefanie Meul, Ulrike Langematz, Philipp Kröger, Sophie Oberländer-Hayn, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7721–7738, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7721-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7721-2018, 2018
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Using a chemistry--climate model future changes in the stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone mass flux, their drivers, and the future distribution of stratospheric ozone in the troposphere are investigated. In an extreme greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario, the global influx of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere is projected to grow between 2000 and 2100 by 53%. The increase is due to the recovery of stratospheric ozone owing to declining halogens and GHG induced circulation and temperature changes.
Jamie M. Kelly, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Graham W. Mann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7393–7422, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7393-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7393-2018, 2018
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The global secondary organic aerosol (SOA) budget is highly uncertain with global models typically underpredicting observed SOA concentrations. Using a global chemistry-climate model, the impacts of biogenic, anthropogenic, and biomass burning VOC emissions on the global SOA budget and model agreement with observed SOA concentrations are quantified.
Clara Orbe, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, John F. Scinocca, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Patrick Jöckel, Luke D. Oman, Susan E. Strahan, Makoto Deushi, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Kohei Yoshida, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Andreas Stenke, Laura Revell, Timofei Sukhodolov, Eugene Rozanov, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7217–7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, 2018
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In this study we compare a few atmospheric transport properties among several numerical models that are used to study the influence of atmospheric chemistry on climate. We show that there are large differences among models in terms of the timescales that connect the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, where greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances are emitted, to the Southern Hemisphere. Our results may have important implications for how models represent atmospheric composition.
Dunya Alraddawi, Alain Sarkissian, Philippe Keckhut, Olivier Bock, Stefan Noël, Slimane Bekki, Abdenour Irbah, Mustapha Meftah, and Chantal Claud
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2949–2965, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2949-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2949-2018, 2018
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The current study provides intercomparisons of various water vapour measurements in the Arctic. It compares ground-based GPS observations with satellite measurements in the infrared (IR), near-infrared (NIR) and visible (VIS) through a specific method allowing us to quantify their uncertainties and limits.
Unlike IR, satellite observations in NIR and VIS bands are mostly sensible to cloud cover during summer and to albedo variability over canopy or polluted snow-covered surfaces in winter.
Felicia Kolonjari, David A. Plummer, Kaley A. Walker, Chris D. Boone, James W. Elkins, Michaela I. Hegglin, Gloria L. Manney, Fred L. Moore, Diane Pendlebury, Eric A. Ray, Karen H. Rosenlof, and Gabriele P. Stiller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6801–6828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6801-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6801-2018, 2018
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We used satellite observations and model simulations of CFC-11, CFC-12, and N2O to investigate stratospheric transport, which is important for predicting the recovery of the ozone layer and future climate. We found that sampling can impact results and that the model consistently overestimates concentrations of these gases in the lower stratosphere, consistent with a too rapid Brewer–Dobson circulation. An issue with mixing in the tropical lower stratosphere in June–July–August was also found.
Simone Dietmüller, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Birner, Harald Boenisch, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Shibata Kiyotaka, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, 2018
Sara Fenech, Ruth M. Doherty, Clare Heaviside, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Helen L. Macintyre, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5765–5784, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5765-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5765-2018, 2018
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The impact of model horizontal resolution on simulated surface ozone and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm concentrations, and the associated health impacts over Europe, using a coarse (~ 140 km) and a finer (~ 50 km) resolution is examined. Results highlight a strong seasonal variation in simulated O3 and PM2.5 differences between the two resolutions and demonstrate that health impact assessments are sensitive to a change in model resolution by up to ±5 % of the total mortality across Europe.
Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Hans Schlager, Robert Baumann, Duy Sinh Cai, Veronika Eyring, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Christiane Voigt, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5655–5675, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5655-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5655-2018, 2018
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This study places aircraft trace gas measurements from within the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone into the context of regional, intra- and interannual variability. We find that the processes reflected in the measurements are present throughout multiple simulated monsoon seasons. Dynamical instabilities, photochemical ozone production, lightning and entrainments from the lower troposphere and from the tropopause region determine the distinct composition of the anticyclone and its outflow.
Mariano Mertens, Volker Grewe, Vanessa S. Rieger, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5567–5588, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5567-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5567-2018, 2018
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We quantified the contribution of land transport and shipping emissions to tropospheric ozone using a global chemistry–climate model. Our results indicate a contribution to ground-level ozone from land transport emissions of up to 18 % in North America and Southern Europe as well as a contribution from shipping emissions of up to 30 % in the Pacific. Our estimates of the radiative ozone forcing due to land transport and shipping emissions are 92 mW m−2 and 62 mW m−2, respectively.
Camille Li, Clio Michel, Lise Seland Graff, Ingo Bethke, Giuseppe Zappa, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Erich Fischer, Ben J. Harvey, Trond Iversen, Martin P. King, Harinarayan Krishnan, Ludwig Lierhammer, Daniel Mitchell, John Scinocca, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí A. Stone, and Justin J. Wettstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 359–382, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018, 2018
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This study investigates the midlatitude atmospheric circulation response to 1.5°C and 2.0°C of warming using modelling experiments run for the HAPPI project (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis & Projected Impacts). While the chaotic nature of the atmospheric flow dominates in these low-end warming scenarios, some local changes emerge. Case studies explore precipitation impacts both for regions that dry (Mediterranean) and regions that get wetter (Europe, North American west coast).
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Amit Gordon, Luke D. Oman, Feng Li, Sean Davis, and Steven Pawson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4597–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4597-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4597-2018, 2018
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The impact of El Niño in the lower stratosphere is nonlinear in spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region,
strong El Niño events appear to lead to warming, and hence the water vapor response is nonlinear too. The net effect is that strong
El Nino events, such as in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, lead to qualitatively different water vapor impacts as compared to moderate
El Nino events.
Astrid Kerkweg, Christiane Hofmann, Patrick Jöckel, Mariano Mertens, and Gregor Pante
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1059–1076, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1059-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1059-2018, 2018
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As part of the model documentation of the MECO(n) system, this article documents the basics of the Multi-Model-Driver expansion (MMD v2.0) to two-way coupling and the newly developed generic MESSy submodel GRID (v1.0), which is used by MMD v2.0 for the generalised definition of arbitrary grids and for the
transformation of data between them.
Neal Butchart, James A. Anstey, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Charles McLandress, Andrew C. Bushell, Yoshio Kawatani, Young-Ha Kim, Francois Lott, John Scinocca, Timothy N. Stockdale, Martin Andrews, Omar Bellprat, Peter Braesicke, Chiara Cagnazzo, Chih-Chieh Chen, Hye-Yeong Chun, Mikhail Dobrynin, Rolando R. Garcia, Javier Garcia-Serrano, Lesley J. Gray, Laura Holt, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Hiroaki Naoe, Holger Pohlmann, Jadwiga H. Richter, Adam A. Scaife, Verena Schenzinger, Federico Serva, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, Kohei Yoshida, and Seiji Yukimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, 2018
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This paper documents the numerical experiments to be used in phase 1 of the Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi), which was set up to improve the representation of the QBO and tropical stratospheric variability in global climate models.
Pavle Arsenovic, Eugene Rozanov, Julien Anet, Andrea Stenke, Werner Schmutz, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3469–3483, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3469-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3469-2018, 2018
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Global warming will persist in the 21st century, even if the solar activity undergoes an unusually strong and long decline. Decreased ozone production caused by reduction of solar activity and change of atmospheric dynamics due to the global warming might result in further thinning of the tropical ozone layer. Globally, total ozone would not recover to the pre-ozone hole values as long as the decline of solar activity lasts. This may let more ultra-violet radiation reach the Earth's surface.
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
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We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
William T. Ball, Justin Alsing, Daniel J. Mortlock, Johannes Staehelin, Joanna D. Haigh, Thomas Peter, Fiona Tummon, Rene Stübi, Andrea Stenke, John Anderson, Adam Bourassa, Sean M. Davis, Doug Degenstein, Stacey Frith, Lucien Froidevaux, Chris Roth, Viktoria Sofieva, Ray Wang, Jeannette Wild, Pengfei Yu, Jerald R. Ziemke, and Eugene V. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1379–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018, 2018
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Using a robust analysis, with artefact-corrected ozone data, we confirm upper stratospheric ozone is recovering following the Montreal Protocol, but that lower stratospheric ozone (50° S–50° N) has continued to decrease since 1998, and the ozone layer as a whole (60° S–60° N) may be lower today than in 1998. No change in total column ozone may be due to increasing tropospheric ozone. State-of-the-art models do not reproduce lower stratospheric ozone decreases.
Olaf Morgenstern, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando R. Garcia, Kengo Sudo, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Luke D. Oman, Michael E. Manyin, Guang Zeng, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Laura E. Revell, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Glauco Di Genova, Daniele Visioni, Sandip S. Dhomse, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1091–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, 2018
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We assess how ozone as simulated by a group of chemistry–climate models responds to variations in man-made climate gases and ozone-depleting substances. We find some agreement, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere, but also considerable disagreement elsewhere. Such disagreement affects the reliability of future ozone projections based on these models, and also constitutes a source of uncertainty in climate projections using prescribed ozone derived from these simulations.
Roland Séférian, Sunghye Baek, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Bertrand Decharme, David Saint-Martin, and Romain Roehrig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 321–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-321-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-321-2018, 2018
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This paper presents a new interactive scheme for ocean surface albedo suited for the current generation of Earth system models. This scheme computes the ocean surface albedo accounting for the spectral dependence (across a range of wavelengths between 200 and 4000 nm), the characteristics of incident solar radiation (direct of diffuse), the effects of surface winds, chlorophyll content and whitecaps in addition to the canonical solar zenith angle dependence.
Andreas Engel, Harald Bönisch, Jennifer Ostermöller, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-601-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-601-2018, 2018
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We present a new method to derive equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), which is based on an improved formulation of the propagation of trends of species with chemical loss from the troposphere to the stratosphere. EESC calculated with the new method shows much better agreement with model-derived ESC. Based on this new formulation, we expect the halogen impact on midlatitude stratospheric ozone to return to 1980 values about 10 years later, then using the current formulation.
Takafumi Sugita, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Elián Wolfram, Jacobo Salvador, Hirofumi Ohyama, and Akira Mizuno
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4947–4964, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4947-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4947-2017, 2017
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We present comparison of ozone profiles from DIAL, MLS, and chemical transport model simulations over Río Gallegos (52° S), Argentina, during the 2009 spring. Measurements were performed in the vicinity of the polar vortex and inside it on some occasions. The results show a good agreement between DIAL and MLS with mean differences of ±0.1 ppmv between 6 hPa and 56 hPa. MIROC-CTM also agrees with DIAL, with mean differences of ±0.3 ppmv between 10 hPa and 56 hPa.
Ruth M. Doherty, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, David A. Plummer, Michael J. Prather, Oliver Wild, Meiyun Lin, Drew T. Shindell, and Ian A. Mackenzie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14219–14237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, 2017
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We investigate how climate change impacts global air pollution transport. To study transport changes, we use a carbon monoxide (CO) tracer species emitted from global sources. We find robust and consistent changes in CO-tracer distributions in climate change simulations performed by four chemistry–climate models in different seasons. We highlight the importance of the co-location of emission source regions and controlling transport processes in determining future pollution transport.
Fraser Dennison, Adrian McDonald, and Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14075–14084, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14075-2017, 2017
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The Antarctic ozone is not centred directly over the pole. In this research we examine how the position and shape of the ozone hole changes using a chemistry–climate model. As ozone becomes increasingly depleted during the late 20th century the centre of the ozone hole moves toward the west and becomes more circular. As the ozone hole recovers over the course of the 21st century the ozone hole moves back towards the east.
Tilman Hüneke, Oliver-Alex Aderhold, Jannik Bounin, Marcel Dorf, Eric Gentry, Katja Grossmann, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Peter Hoor, Patrick Jöckel, Mareike Kenntner, Marvin Knapp, Matthias Knecht, Dominique Lörks, Sabrina Ludmann, Sigrun Matthes, Rasmus Raecke, Marcel Reichert, Jannis Weimar, Bodo Werner, Andreas Zahn, Helmut Ziereis, and Klaus Pfeilsticker
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4209–4234, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4209-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4209-2017, 2017
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This paper describes a novel instrument for the aircraft-borne remote sensing of trace gases and liquid and solid water. Until recently, such measurements could only be evaluated under clear-sky conditions. We present a characterization and error assessment of the novel "scaling method", which allows for the retrieval of absolute trace gas concentrations under all sky conditions, significantly expanding the applicability of such measurements to study atmospheric photochemistry.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Beiping Luo, Stefanie Kremser, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13139–13150, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13139-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13139-2017, 2017
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Compiling stratospheric aerosol data sets after a major volcanic eruption is difficult as the stratosphere becomes too optically opaque for satellite instruments to measure accurately. We performed ensemble chemistry–climate model simulations with two stratospheric aerosol data sets compiled for two international modelling activities and compared the simulated volcanic aerosol-induced effects from the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption on tropical stratospheric temperature and ozone with observations.
Lucy S. Neal, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd Folberth, Rachel N. McInnes, Paul Agnew, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nicholas H. Savage, and Marie Tilbee
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3941–3962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3941-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3941-2017, 2017
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This paper concerns aspects of downscaling global atmospheric composition and chemistry model predictions on the continental and UK national scale. A two-step nested model configuration was developed and used to simulate UK air quality for a 5-year period under present-day conditions. The results show some benefits associated with higher-resolution modelling for primary emitted pollutants, but also highlight the importance of consistency between the nested models.
Jerald R. Ziemke, Sarah A. Strode, Anne R. Douglass, Joanna Joiner, Alexander Vasilkov, Luke D. Oman, Junhua Liu, Susan E. Strahan, Pawan K. Bhartia, and David P. Haffner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4067–4078, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4067-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4067-2017, 2017
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We combine satellite measurements of ozone and cloud properties from the Aura OMI and MLS instruments for 2004–2016 to measure ozone in the mid–upper levels of deep convective clouds. Our results ascribe upward injection of low boundary layer ozone (varying from low to high amounts) as a major driver of the measured concentrations of ozone in thick clouds. Our OMI/MLS generated ozone product is made available to the public for use in science applications.
William T. Ball, Justin Alsing, Daniel J. Mortlock, Eugene V. Rozanov, Fiona Tummon, and Joanna D. Haigh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12269–12302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12269-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12269-2017, 2017
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Several ozone composites show different decadal trends, even in composites built with the same data. We remove artefacts affecting trend analysis with a new method (BASIC) and construct an ozone composite, with uncertainties. We find a significant ozone recovery since 1998 in the midlatitude upper stratosphere, with no hemispheric difference. We recommend using a similar approach to construct a composite based on the original instrument data to improve stratospheric ozone trend estimates.
Anne R. Douglass, Susan E. Strahan, Luke D. Oman, and Richard S. Stolarski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12081–12096, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12081-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12081-2017, 2017
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Data records from instruments on satellites and on the ground are compared with a simulation for 1980–2016 that is made using winds and temperatures that are derived from measurements. The simulation tracks the observations faithfully after about 2000, but there are systematic errors for earlier years. Scientists must take this into account when trying to detect and quantify changes in the stratospheric circulation that are caused by climate change.
Stefan Lossow, Hella Garny, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11521–11539, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11521-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11521-2017, 2017
Stefanie Falk, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Gisèle Krysztofiak, Patrick Jöckel, Phoebe Graf, and Sinikka T. Lennartz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11313–11329, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11313-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11313-2017, 2017
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Brominated very short-lived source gases (VSLS) contribute significantly to the tropospheric and stratospheric bromine loading. We find an increase of future ocean–atmosphere flux of brominated VSLS of 8–10 % compared to present day. A decrease in the tropospheric mixing ratios of VSLS and an increase in the lower stratosphere are attributed to changes in atmospheric chemistry and transport. Bromine impact on stratospheric ozone at the end of the 21st century is reduced compared to present day.
Christoph Kleinschmitt, Olivier Boucher, Slimane Bekki, François Lott, and Ulrich Platt
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3359–3378, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3359-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3359-2017, 2017
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Stratospheric aerosols play an important role in the climate system by affecting the Earth's radiative budget. In this article we present the newly developed LMDZ-S3A model and assess its performance against observations in periods of low and high aerosol loading. The model may serve as a tool to study the climate impacts of volcanic eruptions, as well as the deliberate injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, which has been proposed as a method of geoengineering to abate global warming.
Kohei Ikeda, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Takafumi Sugita, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yugo Kanaya, Chunmao Zhu, and Fumikazu Taketani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10515–10533, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10515-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10515-2017, 2017
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Black carbon (BC), also known as soot particles, plays a key role in Arctic warming; hence, an understanding of the major source regions and types is important for its mitigation. We found that Russia was the dominant contributor to Arctic BC at the surface level, while the East Asian contribution was the largest in the middle troposphere and the burden over the Arctic, suggesting that BC emission reduction from Russia and East Asia can help mitigate warming in the Arctic.
Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Hisako Shiona, Alan J. Thomas, Richard R. Querel, and Sylvia E. Nichol
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10495–10513, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10495-2017, 2017
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The long-term ozonesonde record from Lauder, New Zealand, which covers 1987 to 2014, shows a significant positive trend in lower tropospheric ozone, and a significant negative trend in the tropopause region. We conduct a statistical and chemistry–climate model analysis to identify the causes of these trends. We attribute these trends to anthropogenic influences and large-scale dynamical effects such as increasing tropopause height and an increase in stratosphere–troposphere exchange.
Jesse W. Greenslade, Simon P. Alexander, Robyn Schofield, Jenny A. Fisher, and Andrew K. Klekociuk
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10269–10290, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10269-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10269-2017, 2017
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An analysis of data from ozonesondes released at three southern oceanic sites shows the impact of stratospheric ozone in this region. Using a novel method of transport classification, this work estimates the seasonality and quantity of stratospherically sourced ozone. We find that ozone is transported most frequently in summer due to regional-scale low-pressure weather systems. We also estimate a stratospheric ozone source of 2.0–3.3 Tg/year over three Southern Ocean regions.
Rémi Thiéblemont, Marion Marchand, Slimane Bekki, Sébastien Bossay, Franck Lefèvre, Mustapha Meftah, and Alain Hauchecorne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9897–9916, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9897-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9897-2017, 2017
Sergey Gromov, Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8525–8552, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8525-2017, 2017
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We revisit the proxies/uncertainties for the 13C/12C ratios of emissions of reactive C into the atmosphere. Our main findings are (i) a factor of 2 less uncertain estimate of tropospheric CO surface sources δ13C, (ii) a confirmed disagreement between the bottom-up and top-down 13CO-inclusive emission estimates, and (iii) a novel estimate of the δ13C signatures of a range of NMHCs/VOCs to be used in modelling studies. Results are based on the EMAC model emission set-up evaluated for 2000.
Guanyu Huang, Xiong Liu, Kelly Chance, Kai Yang, Pawan K. Bhartia, Zhaonan Cai, Marc Allaart, Gérard Ancellet, Bertrand Calpini, Gerrie J. R. Coetzee, Emilio Cuevas-Agulló, Manuel Cupeiro, Hugo De Backer, Manvendra K. Dubey, Henry E. Fuelberg, Masatomo Fujiwara, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Tristan J. Hall, Bryan Johnson, Everette Joseph, Rigel Kivi, Bogumil Kois, Ninong Komala, Gert König-Langlo, Giovanni Laneve, Thierry Leblanc, Marion Marchand, Kenneth R. Minschwaner, Gary Morris, Michael J. Newchurch, Shin-Ya Ogino, Nozomu Ohkawara, Ankie J. M. Piters, Françoise Posny, Richard Querel, Rinus Scheele, Frank J. Schmidlin, Russell C. Schnell, Otto Schrems, Henry Selkirk, Masato Shiotani, Pavla Skrivánková, René Stübi, Ghassan Taha, David W. Tarasick, Anne M. Thompson, Valérie Thouret, Matthew B. Tully, Roeland Van Malderen, Holger Vömel, Peter von der Gathen, Jacquelyn C. Witte, and Margarita Yela
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2455–2475, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2455-2017, 2017
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It is essential to understand the data quality of +10-year OMI ozone product and impacts of the “row anomaly” (RA). We validate the OMI Ozone Profile (PROFOZ) product from Oct 2004 to Dec 2014 against ozonesonde observations globally. Generally, OMI has good agreement with ozonesondes. The spatiotemporal variation of retrieval performance suggests the need to improve OMI’s radiometric calibration especially during the post-RA period to maintain the long-term stability.
Volker Grewe, Eleni Tsati, Mariano Mertens, Christine Frömming, and Patrick Jöckel
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2615–2633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2615-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2615-2017, 2017
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We present a diagnostics, implemented in an Earth system model, which keeps track of the contribution of source categories (mainly emission sectors) to various concentrations (O3 and HOx). For the first time, it takes into account chemically competing effects, e.g., the competition between ozone precursors in the production of ozone. We show that the results are in-line with results from other tagging schemes and provide plausibility checks for OH and HO2, which have not previously been tagged.
Kevin M. Smalley, Andrew E. Dessler, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, David A. Plummer, Kiyotaka Shibata, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8031–8044, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017, 2017
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This paper explains a new way to evaluate simulated lower-stratospheric water vapor. We use a multivariate linear regression to predict 21st century lower stratospheric water vapor within 12 chemistry climate models using tropospheric warming, the Brewer–Dobson circulation, and the quasi-biennial oscillation as predictors. This methodology produce strong fits to simulated water vapor, and potentially represents a superior method to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric water vapor.
Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Felix Plöger, Patrick Jöckel, and Duy Cai
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7703–7719, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7703-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7703-2017, 2017
Katja Matthes, Bernd Funke, Monika E. Andersson, Luke Barnard, Jürg Beer, Paul Charbonneau, Mark A. Clilverd, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Margit Haberreiter, Aaron Hendry, Charles H. Jackman, Matthieu Kretzschmar, Tim Kruschke, Markus Kunze, Ulrike Langematz, Daniel R. Marsh, Amanda C. Maycock, Stergios Misios, Craig J. Rodger, Adam A. Scaife, Annika Seppälä, Ming Shangguan, Miriam Sinnhuber, Kleareti Tourpali, Ilya Usoskin, Max van de Kamp, Pekka T. Verronen, and Stefan Versick
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017
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The solar forcing dataset for climate model experiments performed for the upcoming IPCC report is described. This dataset provides the radiative and particle input of solar variability on a daily basis from 1850 through to 2300. With this dataset a better representation of natural climate variability with respect to the output of the Sun is provided which provides the most sophisticated and comprehensive respresentation of solar variability that has been used in climate model simulations so far.
Verena Schenzinger, Scott Osprey, Lesley Gray, and Neal Butchart
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2157–2168, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2157-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2157-2017, 2017
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The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a pattern of winds in the equatorial stratosphere that has been observed for the past 60 years. It is thought to have long-range influences, e.g. on the Northern Hemisphere winter polar vortex and therefore Europe's winter weather. Since its period is about 2 years, being able to predict the QBO might also improve weather forecasting. Using a set of characteristic metrics, this paper examines how reliable current climate models are in simulating the QBO.
Klaus-D. Gottschaldt, Hans Schlager, Robert Baumann, Heiko Bozem, Veronika Eyring, Peter Hoor, Patrick Jöckel, Tina Jurkat, Christiane Voigt, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6091–6111, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6091-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6091-2017, 2017
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We present upper-tropospheric trace gas measurements in the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone, obtained with the HALO research aircraft in September 2012. The anticyclone is one of the largest atmospheric features on Earth, but many aspects of it are not well understood. With the help of model simulations we find that entrainments from the tropopause region and the lower troposphere, combined with photochemistry and dynamical instabilities, can explain the observations.
Chris S.~M. Turney, Andrew Klekociuk, Christopher J. Fogwill, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Claire L. Parkinson, Gilbert Compo, Matthew Lazzara, Linda Keller, Rob Allan, Jonathan G. Palmer, Graeme Clark, and Ezequiel Marzinelli
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We demonstrate that a mid-twentieth century decrease in geopotential height in the southwest Pacific marks a Rossby wave response to equatorial Pacific warming, leading to enhanced easterly airflow off George V Land. Our results suggest that in contrast to ozone hole-driven changes in the Amundsen Sea, the 1979–2015 increase in sea ice extent off George V Land may be in response to reduced northward Ekman drift and enhanced (near-coast) production as a consequence of low latitude forcing.
Iain M. Reid, Andrew J. Spargo, Jonathan M. Woithe, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Joel P. Younger, and Gulamabas G. Sivjee
Ann. Geophys., 35, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-35-567-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-35-567-2017, 2017
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We measured temperatures in the atmosphere at heights near 90 km using nightglow emissions and compared them with satellite measurements and with measurements made with a meteor radar. We found good agreement between the techniques, which improved when we used the meteor radar and satellite data to measure densities at two heights separated by about 10 km to estimate the nightglow emission height.
David Walters, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Thomas Melvin, Rachel Stratton, Simon Vosper, Helen Wells, Keith Williams, Nigel Wood, Thomas Allen, Andrew Bushell, Dan Copsey, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Markus Gross, Steven Hardiman, Chris Harris, Julian Heming, Nicholas Klingaman, Richard Levine, James Manners, Gill Martin, Sean Milton, Marion Mittermaier, Cyril Morcrette, Thomas Riddick, Malcolm Roberts, Claudio Sanchez, Paul Selwood, Alison Stirling, Chris Smith, Dan Suri, Warren Tennant, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jonathan Wilkinson, Martin Willett, Steve Woolnough, and Prince Xavier
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1487–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, 2017
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Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application.
We describe a recent iteration of these configurations: GA6/GL6. This includes ENDGame: a new dynamical core designed to improve the model's accuracy, stability and scalability. GA6 is now operational in a variety of Met Office and UM collaborators applications and hence its documentation is important.
We describe a recent iteration of these configurations: GA6/GL6. This includes ENDGame: a new dynamical core designed to improve the model's accuracy, stability and scalability. GA6 is now operational in a variety of Met Office and UM collaborators applications and hence its documentation is important.
Jennifer Ostermöller, Harald Bönisch, Patrick Jöckel, and Andreas Engel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3785–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3785-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3785-2017, 2017
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We analysed the temporal evolution of fractional release factors (FRFs) from EMAC model simulations for several halocarbons and nitrous oxide. The current formulation of FRFs yields values that depend on the tropospheric trend of the species. This is a problematic issue for the application of FRF in the calculation of steady-state quantities (e.g. ODP). Including a loss term in the calculation, we develop a new formulation of FRF and find that the time dependence can almost be compensated.
Steven C. Hardiman, Neal Butchart, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Rumbold
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1209–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1209-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1209-2017, 2017
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HadGEM3-ES is improved, with respect to the previous model, in 10 of the 14 metrics considered. A significant bias in stratospheric water vapour is reduced, allowing more accurate simulation of water vapour and ozone concentrations in the stratosphere. Dynamics are found to influence the spatial structure of the simulated ozone hole and the area of polar stratospheric clouds. This research was carried out as part of involvement in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCM-I).
Bernd Funke, William Ball, Stefan Bender, Angela Gardini, V. Lynn Harvey, Alyn Lambert, Manuel López-Puertas, Daniel R. Marsh, Katharina Meraner, Holger Nieder, Sanna-Mari Päivärinta, Kristell Pérot, Cora E. Randall, Thomas Reddmann, Eugene Rozanov, Hauke Schmidt, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriele P. Stiller, Natalia D. Tsvetkova, Pekka T. Verronen, Stefan Versick, Thomas von Clarmann, Kaley A. Walker, and Vladimir Yushkov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3573–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3573-2017, 2017
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Simulations from eight atmospheric models have been compared to tracer and temperature observations from seven satellite instruments in order to evaluate the energetic particle indirect effect (EPP IE) during the perturbed northern hemispheric (NH) winter 2008/2009. Models are capable to reproduce the EPP IE in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The results emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events.
Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I. Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando R. Garcia, Steven C. Hardiman, Larry W. Horowitz, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Michael E. Manyin, Marion Marchand, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, 2017
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We present a review of the make-up of 20 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). In comparison to earlier such activities, most of these models comprise a whole-atmosphere chemistry, and several of them include an interactive ocean module. This makes them suitable for studying the interactions of tropospheric air quality, stratospheric ozone, and climate. The paper lays the foundation for other studies using the CCMI simulations for scientific analysis.
Osamu Uchino, Tetsu Sakai, Toshiharu Izumi, Tomohiro Nagai, Isamu Morino, Akihiro Yamazaki, Makoto Deushi, Keiya Yumimoto, Takashi Maki, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Taiga Akaho, Hiroshi Okumura, Kohei Arai, Takahiro Nakatsuru, Tsuneo Matsunaga, and Tatsuya Yokota
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1865–1879, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1865-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1865-2017, 2017
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To validate products of GOSAT, we observed vertical profiles of aerosols, thin cirrus clouds, and tropospheric ozone with a mobile lidar system that consisted of a two-wavelength (532 and 1064 nm) polarization lidar and tropospheric ozone differential absorption lidar (DIAL). We used these lidars to make continuous measurements over Saga (33.24° N, 130.29° E) during 20–31 March 2015. High ozone and high aerosol concentrations were observed almost simultaneously and impacted surface air quality.
Daniel Mitchell, Krishna AchutaRao, Myles Allen, Ingo Bethke, Urs Beyerle, Andrew Ciavarella, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Nathan Gillett, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, Trond Iversen, Viatcheslav Kharin, Nicholas Klingaman, Neil Massey, Erich Fischer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, John Scinocca, Øyvind Seland, Hideo Shiogama, Emily Shuckburgh, Sarah Sparrow, Dáithí Stone, Peter Uhe, David Wallom, Michael Wehner, and Rashyd Zaaboul
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, 2017
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This paper provides an experimental design to assess impacts of a world that is 1.5 °C warmer than at pre-industrial levels. The design is a new way to approach impacts from the climate community, and aims to answer questions related to the recent Paris Agreement. In particular the paper provides a method for studying extreme events under relatively high mitigation scenarios.
Asen Grytsai, Andrew Klekociuk, Gennadi Milinevsky, Oleksandr Evtushevsky, and Kane Stone
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1741–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1741-2017, 2017
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Twenty years ago we discovered that the ozone hole shape is asymmetric. This asymmetry is minimum over the Weddell Sea region and maximum over the Ross Sea area. Later we detected that the position of the ozone minimum is shifting east. We have continued to follow this event, and a couple years ago we revealed that the shift is slowing down and starting to move back. We connect all this movement with ozone hole increase; since 2000 the ozone layer has been stabilizing and recently recovering.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Valentina Aquila, Darryn W. Waugh, and Luke D. Oman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1313–1327, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1313-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1313-2017, 2017
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Previous work has noted a discrepancy between models and observations in trends of the large-scale overturning circulation in the stratosphere. Here, we show that a model can simulate trends that are reminiscent of those observed, including space- and time-varying trends in different regions of the stratosphere. We therefore clarify that the statement that is often made that models simulate an accelerated circulation only applies over long time periods and is not true for the past 25 years.
Ulrike Langematz, Franziska Schmidt, Markus Kunze, Gregory E. Bodeker, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15619–15627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016, 2016
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The extent of anthropogenically driven Antarctic ozone depletion prior to 1980 is examined using transient chemistry–climate model simulations from 1960 to 2000 with prescribed changes of ozone depleting substances in conjunction with observations. All models show a long-term, halogen-induced negative trend in Antarctic ozone from 1960 to 1980, ranging between 26 and 50 % of the total anthropogenic ozone depletion from 1960 to 2000. A stronger ozone decline of 56 % was estimated from observation.
William T. Ball, Aleš Kuchař, Eugene V. Rozanov, Johannes Staehelin, Fiona Tummon, Anne K. Smith, Timofei Sukhodolov, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Ancelin Coulon, Werner Schmutz, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15485–15500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016, 2016
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We find monthly, mid-latitude temperature changes above 40 km are related to ozone and temperature variations throughout the middle atmosphere. We develop an index to represent this atmospheric variability. In statistical analysis, the index can account for up to 60 % of variability in tropical temperature and ozone above 27 km. The uncertainties can be reduced by up to 35 % and 20 % in temperature and ozone, respectively. This index is an important tool to quantify current and future ozone recovery.
Stefan Brönnimann, Abdul Malik, Alexander Stickler, Martin Wegmann, Christoph C. Raible, Stefan Muthers, Julien Anet, Eugene Rozanov, and Werner Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15529–15543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, 2016
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The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a wind oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere. Effects on climate have been found, which is relevant for seasonal forecasts. However, up to now only relatively short records were available, and even within these the climate imprints were intermittent. Here we analyze a 108-year long reconstruction as well as four 405-year long simulations. We confirm most of the claimed QBO effects on climate, but they are small, which explains apparently variable effects.
Matthias Nützel, Martin Dameris, and Hella Garny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14755–14774, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14755-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14755-2016, 2016
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Using seven reanalyses, we study the movement and drivers of the upper tropospheric–lower stratospheric anticyclone (AC) that forms during the Asian summer monsoon and is debated to be an important pathway for air masses to the stratosphere. We find that the distribution of the AC's centre position, and especially the so-called bimodality, largely depends on the reanalysis. Furthermore, we can connect shifts of the AC to precipitation and convection anomalies over India and the western Pacific.
Laura López-Comí, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Sarah L. Masters, Richard R. Querel, and Gerald E. Nedoluha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14599–14619, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14599-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14599-2016, 2016
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The hydroxyl radical (OH) is known for removing various pollutants from the atmosphere. Chemistry–climate models disagree on how much OH is found in the atmosphere. Here we use a single column model, set up for Lauder (New Zealand), to assess how OH responds to correcting model biases in long-lived constituents and temperature. We find some considerable sensitivity to correcting water vapour and ozone, with lesser contributions due to correcting methane, carbon monoxide, and temperature.
Stefan Muthers, Christoph C. Raible, Eugene Rozanov, and Thomas F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 877–892, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, 2016
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important oceanic circulation system which transports large amounts of heat from the tropics to the north. This circulation is strengthened when less solar irradiance reaches the Earth, e.g. due to reduced solar activity or geoengineering techniques. In climate models, however, this response is overestimated when chemistry–climate interactions and the following shift in the atmospheric circulation systems are not considered.
Duy Cai, Martin Dameris, Hella Garny, Felix Bunzel, Patrick Jöckel, and Phoebe Graf
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-870, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-870, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Reliable information on weather and climate are of increasing interest for economy, politics and society.
In particular decadal timescales become more and more important. This study focuses on stratospheric processes relevant for the dynamical variability on intra decadal timescale. We apply a so called power spectra analysis. With this method and further analyses we could determine a minimum vertical resolution for numerical models, which is required to capture these processes.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Eugene Rozanov, William Ball, Stefan Lossow, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13067–13080, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13067-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13067-2016, 2016
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Water vapour in the stratosphere plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and the Earth's radiative balance. We have analysed trends in stratospheric water vapour through the 21st century as simulated by a coupled chemistry–climate model following a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We have also quantified the contribution that methane oxidation in the stratosphere makes to projected water vapour trends.
Bastian Kern and Patrick Jöckel
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3639–3654, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3639-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3639-2016, 2016
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Input and output of large data limit the performance of numerical models on supercomputers. We present an interface for the calculation of online diagnostics in a weather and climate model. These diagnostics are calculated online during the simulation instead of as subsequent post-processing. Depending on the diagnostic, we can reduce the amount of model output.
Mariano Mertens, Astrid Kerkweg, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, and Christiane Hofmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3545–3567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3545-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3545-2016, 2016
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This fourth part in a series of publications describing the newly developed regional chemistry–climate system MECO(n) is dedicated to the evaluation of MECO(n) with respect to tropospheric gas-phase chemistry. For this, a simulation incorporating two regional instances, one over Europe with 50 km resolution and one over Germany with 12 km resolution, is conducted. The model results are compared with satellite, ground-based and aircraft in situ observations.
Hiroshi Yamashita, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, Florian Linke, Martin Schaefer, and Daisuke Sasaki
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3363–3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3363-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3363-2016, 2016
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This study introduces AirTraf v1.0 for climate impact evaluations, which performs global air traffic simulations in the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model. AirTraf simulations were demonstrated with great circle and flight time routing options for a specific winter day, assuming an Airbus A330 aircraft. The results confirmed that AirTraf simulates the air traffic properly for the two options. Calculated flight time, fuel consumption and NOx emission index are comparable to reference data.
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
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Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
Youichi Kamae, Kohei Yoshida, and Hiroaki Ueda
Clim. Past, 12, 1619–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1619-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1619-2016, 2016
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Climate model simulations conducted in previous studies tended to underestimate the late-Pliocene higher-latitude warming suggested by proxy evidences. We explore how prescribed trace gases, ice sheets, vegetation, lakes and orography affect the Pliocene climate simulation based on a protocol of the PlioMIP Phase 2. The revised boundary forcing data lead to amplified higher-latitude warming that is qualitatively consistent with the paleoenvironment reconstructions.
Raquel A. Silva, J. Jason West, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, William J. Collins, Stig Dalsoren, Greg Faluvegi, Gerd Folberth, Larry W. Horowitz, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naik, Steven T. Rumbold, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, Daniel Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, Irene Cionni, Ruth M. Doherty, Veronika Eyring, Beatrice Josse, Ian A. MacKenzie, David Plummer, Mattia Righi, David S. Stevenson, Sarah Strode, Sophie Szopa, and Guang Zengast
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9847–9862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, 2016
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Using ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models for the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, we quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution in 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to 2000 concentrations. We also estimate the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period.
Markus Kunze, Peter Braesicke, Ulrike Langematz, and Gabriele Stiller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8695–8714, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8695-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8695-2016, 2016
Vivek K. Arora and John F. Scinocca
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2357–2376, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2357-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2357-2016, 2016
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This paper uses observed features of the global carbon cycle to constrain how much carbon the land should take up in an Earth system model in response to increasing fossil fuel CO2 emissions since the start of the industrial era. These models are the only tool available to us for projecting future climate change. Despite their uncertainties, if current observations can be used to constrain models then more confidence can be places in models' future climate change projections.
Sabine Brinkop, Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, Hella Garny, Stefan Lossow, and Gabriele Stiller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8125–8140, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8125-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8125-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the water vapour decline in the stratosphere beginning in the year 2000 and other similarly strong stratospheric water vapour reductions. The driving forces are tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes due to coincidence with a preceding ENSO event and supported by the west to east change of the QBO.
There are indications that both SSTs and the specific dynamical state of the atmosphere contribute to the long period of low water vapour values from 2001 to 2006.
Steffen Beirle, Christoph Hörmann, Patrick Jöckel, Song Liu, Marloes Penning de Vries, Andrea Pozzer, Holger Sihler, Pieter Valks, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 2753–2779, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-2753-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-2753-2016, 2016
Simone Dietmüller, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Markus Kunze, Catrin Gellhorn, Sabine Brinkop, Christine Frömming, Michael Ponater, Benedikt Steil, Axel Lauer, and Johannes Hendricks
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2209–2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2209-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2209-2016, 2016
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Four new radiation related submodels (RAD, AEROPT, CLOUDOPT, and ORBIT) are available within the MESSy framework now. They are largely based on the original radiation scheme of ECHAM5. RAD simulates radiative transfer, AEROPT calculates aerosol optical properties, CLOUDOPT calculates cloud optical properties, and ORBIT is responsible for Earth orbit calculations. Multiple diagnostic calls of the radiation routine are possible, so radiative forcing can be calculated during the model simulation.
Sarah A. Strode, Helen M. Worden, Megan Damon, Anne R. Douglass, Bryan N. Duncan, Louisa K. Emmons, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael Manyin, Luke D. Oman, Jose M. Rodriguez, Susan E. Strahan, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7285–7294, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7285-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7285-2016, 2016
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We use global models to interpret trends in MOPITT observations of CO. Simulations with time-dependent emissions reproduce the observed trends over the eastern USA and Europe, suggesting that the emissions are reasonable for these regions. The simulations produce a positive trend over eastern China, contrary to the observed negative trend. This may indicate that the assumed emission trend over China is too positive. However, large variability in the overhead ozone column also contributes.
Daan Hubert, Jean-Christopher Lambert, Tijl Verhoelst, José Granville, Arno Keppens, Jean-Luc Baray, Adam E. Bourassa, Ugo Cortesi, Doug A. Degenstein, Lucien Froidevaux, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Karl W. Hoppel, Bryan J. Johnson, Erkki Kyrölä, Thierry Leblanc, Günter Lichtenberg, Marion Marchand, C. Thomas McElroy, Donal Murtagh, Hideaki Nakane, Thierry Portafaix, Richard Querel, James M. Russell III, Jacobo Salvador, Herman G. J. Smit, Kerstin Stebel, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Kevin B. Strawbridge, René Stübi, Daan P. J. Swart, Ghassan Taha, David W. Tarasick, Anne M. Thompson, Joachim Urban, Joanna A. E. van Gijsel, Roeland Van Malderen, Peter von der Gathen, Kaley A. Walker, Elian Wolfram, and Joseph M. Zawodny
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 2497–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-2497-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-2497-2016, 2016
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A more detailed understanding of satellite O3 profile data records is vital for further progress in O3 research. To this end, we made a comprehensive assessment of 14 limb/occultation profilers using ground-based reference data. The mutual consistency of satellite O3 in terms of bias, short-term variability and decadal stability is generally good over most of the stratosphere. However, we identified some exceptions that impact the quality of recently merged data sets and ozone trend assessments.
Michael Löffler, Sabine Brinkop, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6547–6562, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6547-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6547-2016, 2016
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After the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on the Philippines in 1991, stratospheric water vapour is significantly increased. This results from increased stratospheric heating rates due to volcanic aerosol and the subsequent changes in stratospheric and tropopause temperatures in the tropics. The tropical vertical advection and the South Asian summer monsoon are identified as important sources for the additional water vapour in the stratosphere.
Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Andrea Pozzer, Markus Kunze, Oliver Kirner, Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer, Sabine Brinkop, Duy S. Cai, Christoph Dyroff, Johannes Eckstein, Franziska Frank, Hella Garny, Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Astrid Kerkweg, Bastian Kern, Sigrun Matthes, Mariano Mertens, Stefanie Meul, Marco Neumaier, Matthias Nützel, Sophie Oberländer-Hayn, Roland Ruhnke, Theresa Runde, Rolf Sander, Dieter Scharffe, and Andreas Zahn
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1153–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1153-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1153-2016, 2016
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With an advanced numerical global chemistry climate model (CCM) we performed several detailed
combined hind-cast and projection simulations of the period 1950 to 2100 to assess the
past, present, and potential future dynamical and chemical state of the Earth atmosphere.
The manuscript documents the model and the various applied model set-ups and provides
a first evaluation of the simulation results from a global perspective as a quality check of the data.
Christopher E. Sioris, Jason Zou, David A. Plummer, Chris D. Boone, C. Thomas McElroy, Patrick E. Sheese, Omid Moeini, and Peter F. Bernath
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3265–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3265-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3265-2016, 2016
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The AM (annular mode) is the most important internal mode of climatic variability at high latitudes. Upper tropospheric water vapour (UTWV) at high latitudes increases by up to ~ 50 % during the negative phase of the AMs. The response of water vapour to the AMs vanishes above the tropopause. The ultimate goal of the study was to improve UTWV trend uncertainties by explaining shorter-term variability, and this was achieved by accounting for the AM-related response in a multiple linear regression.
Kane A. Stone, Olaf Morgenstern, David J. Karoly, Andrew R. Klekociuk, W. John French, N. Luke Abraham, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2401–2415, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2401-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2401-2016, 2016
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This paper describes the set-up and evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator – chemistry-climate model.
Emphasis is placed on the Antarctic ozone hole, which is very important considering its role modulating Southern Hemisphere surface climate. While the model simulates the global distribution of ozone well, there is a disparity in the vertical location of springtime ozone depletion over Antarctica, highlighting important areas for future development.
Emphasis is placed on the Antarctic ozone hole, which is very important considering its role modulating Southern Hemisphere surface climate. While the model simulates the global distribution of ozone well, there is a disparity in the vertical location of springtime ozone depletion over Antarctica, highlighting important areas for future development.
R. S. Humphries, A. R. Klekociuk, R. Schofield, M. Keywood, J. Ward, and S. R. Wilson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2185–2206, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2185-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2185-2016, 2016
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This work represents the first observational study of atmospheric sub-micron aerosols in the East Antarctic pack ice region and found springtime aerosol concentrations were higher than any observed elsewhere in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean region. Further analysis suggested these aerosols formed in the Antarctic free troposphere. Their subsequent transport to the Southern Ocean, as suggest by trajectory analyses, could help to reduce the discrepancy in the radiative budget in the region.
A. J. G. Baumgaertner, P. Jöckel, A. Kerkweg, R. Sander, and H. Tost
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 125–135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-125-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-125-2016, 2016
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The Community Earth System Model (CESM1) is connected to the the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) as a new base model. This allows MESSy users the option to utilize either the state-of-the art spectral element atmosphere dynamical core or the finite volume core of CESM1. Additionally, this makes several other component models available to MESSy users.
Christiane Hofmann, Astrid Kerkweg, Peter Hoor, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2015-949, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2015-949, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Ozone enhancements at the surface, caused by descending stratospheric air masses along deep tropopause folds, can be reproduced using the model system MECO(n). It is shown that stratosphere-troposphere-exchange (STE) in the vicinity of a tropopause fold occurs in regions of turbulence and diabatic processes. The efficiency of mixing is quantified, showing that almost all of the air masses originating in the tropopause fold are transported into the troposphere during the following two days.
C. S. M. Turney, C. J. Fogwill, A. R. Klekociuk, T. D. van Ommen, M. A. J. Curran, A. D. Moy, and J. G. Palmer
The Cryosphere, 9, 2405–2415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2405-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2405-2015, 2015
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Recent trends in ocean circulation, sea ice and climate over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica are highly complex. Here we report a new snow core from the South Pole alongside reanalysis of 20th century global atmospheric circulation. We demonstrate for the first time that atmospheric pressure anomalies in the mid-latitudes act as "gatekeepers" to meridional exchange over continental Antarctica, modulated by the tropical Pacific, with potentially significant impacts on surface mass balance.
R. S. Humphries, R. Schofield, M. D. Keywood, J. Ward, J. R. Pierce, C. M. Gionfriddo, M. T. Tate, D. P. Krabbenhoft, I. E. Galbally, S. B. Molloy, A. R. Klekociuk, P. V. Johnston, K. Kreher, A. J. Thomas, A. D. Robinson, N. R. P. Harris, R. Johnson, and S. R. Wilson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13339–13364, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13339-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13339-2015, 2015
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An atmospheric new particle formation event that was observed in the pristine East Antarctic pack ice during a springtime voyage in 2012 is characterised in terms of formation and growth rates. Known nucleation mechanisms (e.g. those involving sulfate, iodine and organics) were unable to explain observations; however, correlations with total gaseous mercury were found, leading to the suggestion of a possible mercury-driven nucleation mechanism not previously described.
K. Karami, P. Braesicke, M. Kunze, U. Langematz, M. Sinnhuber, and S. Versick
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33283-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33283-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
D. Pendlebury, D. Plummer, J. Scinocca, P. Sheese, K. Strong, K. Walker, and D. Degenstein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12465–12485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12465-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12465-2015, 2015
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The CMAM30 data set takes a chemistry-climate model and relaxes the dynamics to reanalysis, which can then provide chemistry fields not available from the reanalysis data set. This paper addresses this gap by comparing temperature, water vapour, ozone and methane to satellite data to determine and document any biases in the model fields. The lack of ozone destruction and dehydration in the SH polar vortex is shown to be due to the treatment of polar stratosphere clouds in the model.
J.-X. Sheng, D. K. Weisenstein, B.-P. Luo, E. Rozanov, F. Arfeuille, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11501–11512, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11501-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11501-2015, 2015
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We have conducted a perturbed parameter model ensemble to investigate Mt.
Pinatubo's 1991 initial sulfur mass emission. Our results suggest that (a) the initial mass loading of the Pinatubo eruption is ~14 Mt of SO2; (b) the injection vertical distribution is strongly skewed towards the lower stratosphere, leading to a peak mass sulfur injection at 18-21 km; (c) the injection magnitude and height affect early southward transport of the volcanic cloud observed by SAGE II.
S. Muthers, F. Arfeuille, C. C. Raible, and E. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11461–11476, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, 2015
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After volcanic eruptions different radiative and chemical processes take place in the stratosphere which perturb the ozone layer and cause pronounced dynamical changes. In idealized chemistry-climate model simulations the importance of these processes and the modulating role of the climate state is analysed. The chemical effect strongly differs between a preindustrial and present-day climate, but the effect on the dynamics is weak. Radiative processes dominate the dynamics in all climate states.
A. Kerkweg and P. Jöckel
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-8607-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-8607-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
J. L. Schnell, M. J. Prather, B. Josse, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, P. Cameron-Smith, D. Bergmann, G. Zeng, D. A. Plummer, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, D. T. Shindell, G. Faluvegi, and S. A. Strode
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10581–10596, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, 2015
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We test global chemistry--climate models in their ability to simulate present-day surface ozone. Models are tested against observed hourly ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1°x1° grid cells. Using novel metrics, we find most models match the shape but not the amplitude of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles and match the pattern but not the magnitude of summer ozone enhancement. Most also match the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes
J. R. Ziemke, A. R. Douglass, L. D. Oman, S. E. Strahan, and B. N. Duncan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8037–8049, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8037-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8037-2015, 2015
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Aura OMI and MLS measurements are combined to produce daily maps of tropospheric ozone beginning October 2004. We show that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related inter-annual change in tropospheric ozone in the tropics is small compared to combined intra-seasonal/Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and shorter timescale variability. Outgoing Longwave Radiation indicates that deep convection is the primary driver of the observed ozone variability on all timescales.
G. Zeng, J. E. Williams, J. A. Fisher, L. K. Emmons, N. B. Jones, O. Morgenstern, J. Robinson, D. Smale, C. Paton-Walsh, and D. W. T. Griffith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7217–7245, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7217-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7217-2015, 2015
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We assess the impact of biogenic emissions on CO and HCHO in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), with simulations using different emission inventories. Differences in biogenic emissions result in large differences on modelled CO in the source and the remote regions. Substantial inter-model differences exist. Models significantly underestimate observed HCHO columns in the SH, suggesting missing sources in the models. Differences in the CO/OH/CH4 chemistry lead to differences in HCHO in remote regions.
R. Eichinger, P. Jöckel, and S. Lossow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7003–7015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7003-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7003-2015, 2015
H. Fischer, A. Pozzer, T. Schmitt, P. Jöckel, T. Klippel, D. Taraborrelli, and J. Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6971–6980, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6971-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6971-2015, 2015
S. Meul, S. Oberländer-Hayn, J. Abalichin, and U. Langematz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6897–6911, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6897-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6897-2015, 2015
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The attribution of stratospheric ozone (O3) loss in the recent past to increasing ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) is important to verify the success of the Montreal Protocol. So far, nonlinearity in the O3 response to ODS and GHG changes has been mostly neglected. In this study we explicitly account for nonlinear O3 changes and aim to clarify their relevance in the past. We show that both O3 chemistry and transport are significantly affected by nonlinearity.
L. E. Revell, F. Tummon, A. Stenke, T. Sukhodolov, A. Coulon, E. Rozanov, H. Garny, V. Grewe, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5887–5902, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5887-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5887-2015, 2015
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We have examined the effects of ozone precursor emissions and climate change on the tropospheric ozone budget. Under RCP 6.0, ozone in the future is governed primarily by changes in nitrogen oxides (NOx). Methane is also important, and induces an increase in tropospheric ozone that is approximately one-third of that caused by NOx. This study highlights the critical role that emission policies globally have to play in determining tropospheric ozone evolution through the 21st century.
R. Eichinger, P. Jöckel, S. Brinkop, M. Werner, and S. Lossow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5537–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, 2015
P. Nabat, S. Somot, M. Mallet, M. Michou, F. Sevault, F. Driouech, D. Meloni, A. di Sarra, C. Di Biagio, P. Formenti, M. Sicard, J.-F. Léon, and M.-N. Bouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3303–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3303-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3303-2015, 2015
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This paper uses an original approach based on a coupled regional aerosol--atmosphere--ocean model to study the dust radiative effects over the Mediterranean in summer 2012. After an evaluation of the prognostic aerosol scheme, the dust aerosol daily variability is shown to improve the simulated surface radiation and temperature at the daily scale. It has also a significant impact on the summer average, thus highlighting the importance of a relevant representation of aerosols in climate models.
M. Righi, V. Eyring, K.-D. Gottschaldt, C. Klinger, F. Frank, P. Jöckel, and I. Cionni
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 733–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-733-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-733-2015, 2015
J. A. Fisher, S. R. Wilson, G. Zeng, J. E. Williams, L. K. Emmons, R. L. Langenfelds, P. B. Krummel, and L. P. Steele
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3217–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3217-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3217-2015, 2015
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The Southern Hemisphere (SH) serves as an important test bed for evaluating our understanding of the processes that drive the composition of the clean background atmosphere. Using data from two aircraft campaigns, combined with four atmospheric chemistry models, we find a large sensitivity in the remote SH to biogenic emissions and their subsequent chemistry and transport. Future model evaluation and measurement campaigns should prioritize reducing uncertainties in these processes.
M. Michou, P. Nabat, and D. Saint-Martin
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 501–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-501-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-501-2015, 2015
K. Stone, M. B. Tully, S. K. Rhodes, and R. Schofield
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 1043–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1043-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1043-2015, 2015
G. D. Hayman, F. M. O'Connor, M. Dalvi, D. B. Clark, N. Gedney, C. Huntingford, C. Prigent, M. Buchwitz, O. Schneising, J. P. Burrows, C. Wilson, N. Richards, and M. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13257–13280, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13257-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13257-2014, 2014
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Globally, wetlands are a major source of methane, which is the second most important greenhouse gas. We find the JULES wetland methane scheme to perform well in general, although there is a tendency for it to overpredict emissions in the tropics and underpredict them in northern latitudes. Our study highlights novel uses of satellite data as a major tool to constrain land-atmosphere methane flux models in a warming world.
T. Sukhodolov, E. Rozanov, A. I. Shapiro, J. Anet, C. Cagnazzo, T. Peter, and W. Schmutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2859–2866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2859-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2859-2014, 2014
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The performance of the main generations of the ECHAM shortwave radiation schemes is analysed in terms of the representation of the solar signal in the heating rates. The way to correct missing or underrepresented spectral intervals in the solar signal in the heating rates is suggested using the example of ECHAM6 and six-band ECHAM5 schemes. The suggested method is computationally fast and suitable for any other radiation scheme.
R. Sander, P. Jöckel, O. Kirner, A. T. Kunert, J. Landgraf, and A. Pozzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2653–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2653-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2653-2014, 2014
C. M. Hoppe, L. Hoffmann, P. Konopka, J.-U. Grooß, F. Ploeger, G. Günther, P. Jöckel, and R. Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2639–2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2639-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2639-2014, 2014
P. Ricaud, B. Sič, L. El Amraoui, J.-L. Attié, R. Zbinden, P. Huszar, S. Szopa, J. Parmentier, N. Jaidan, M. Michou, R. Abida, F. Carminati, D. Hauglustaine, T. August, J. Warner, R. Imasu, N. Saitoh, and V.-H. Peuch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11427–11446, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11427-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11427-2014, 2014
S. S. Dhomse, K. M. Emmerson, G. W. Mann, N. Bellouin, K. S. Carslaw, M. P. Chipperfield, R. Hommel, N. L. Abraham, P. Telford, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, C. E. Johnson, F. O'Connor, O. Morgenstern, J. A. Pyle, T. Deshler, J. M. Zawodny, and L. W. Thomason
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11221–11246, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, 2014
S. Muthers, J. G. Anet, A. Stenke, C. C. Raible, E. Rozanov, S. Brönnimann, T. Peter, F. X. Arfeuille, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2157–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, 2014
M. Kozubek, E. Rozanov, and P. Krizan
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23891-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23891-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
P. Valks, N. Hao, S. Gimeno Garcia, D. Loyola, M. Dameris, P. Jöckel, and A. Delcloo
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2513–2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2513-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2513-2014, 2014
R. Eichinger and P. Jöckel
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1573–1582, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1573-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1573-2014, 2014
O. Uchino, T. Sakai, T. Nagai, I. Morino, T. Maki, M. Deushi, K. Shibata, M. Kajino, T. Kawasaki, T. Akaho, S. Takubo, H. Okumura, K. Arai, M. Nakazato, T. Matsunaga, T. Yokota, S. Kawakami, K. Kita, and Y. Sasano
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 1385–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1385-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1385-2014, 2014
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. V. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, W. Schmutz, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014
S. Meul, U. Langematz, S. Oberländer, H. Garny, and P. Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2959–2971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2959-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2959-2014, 2014
F. Arfeuille, D. Weisenstein, H. Mack, E. Rozanov, T. Peter, and S. Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 10, 359–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-359-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-359-2014, 2014
D. N. Walters, K. D. Williams, I. A. Boutle, A. C. Bushell, J. M. Edwards, P. R. Field, A. P. Lock, C. J. Morcrette, R. A. Stratton, J. M. Wilkinson, M. R. Willett, N. Bellouin, A. Bodas-Salcedo, M. E. Brooks, D. Copsey, P. D. Earnshaw, S. C. Hardiman, C. M. Harris, R. C. Levine, C. MacLachlan, J. C. Manners, G. M. Martin, S. F. Milton, M. D. Palmer, M. J. Roberts, J. M. Rodríguez, W. J. Tennant, and P. L. Vidale
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 361–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014, 2014
C. Liu, S. Beirle, T. Butler, P. Hoor, C. Frankenberg, P. Jöckel, M. Penning de Vries, U. Platt, A. Pozzer, M. G. Lawrence, J. Lelieveld, H. Tost, and T. Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1717–1732, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1717-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1717-2014, 2014
C. McLandress, D. A. Plummer, and T. G. Shepherd
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1547–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1547-2014, 2014
V. Grewe, C. Frömming, S. Matthes, S. Brinkop, M. Ponater, S. Dietmüller, P. Jöckel, H. Garny, E. Tsati, K. Dahlmann, O. A. Søvde, J. Fuglestvedt, T. K. Berntsen, K. P. Shine, E. A. Irvine, T. Champougny, and P. Hullah
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 175–201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-175-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-175-2014, 2014
F. M. O'Connor, C. E. Johnson, O. Morgenstern, N. L. Abraham, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, G. A. Folberth, M. G. Sanderson, P. J. Telford, A. Voulgarakis, P. J. Young, G. Zeng, W. J. Collins, and J. A. Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 41–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, 2014
M. M. Hurwitz, L. D. Oman, P. A. Newman, and I.-S. Song
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 12187–12197, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12187-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12187-2013, 2013
F. Arfeuille, B. P. Luo, P. Heckendorn, D. Weisenstein, J. X. Sheng, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, S. Brönnimann, L. W. Thomason, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11221–11234, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11221-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11221-2013, 2013
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, T. Peter, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10951–10967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, 2013
E. Regelin, H. Harder, M. Martinez, D. Kubistin, C. Tatum Ernest, H. Bozem, T. Klippel, Z. Hosaynali-Beygi, H. Fischer, R. Sander, P. Jöckel, R. Königstedt, and J. Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10703–10720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10703-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10703-2013, 2013
P. Huszar, H. Teyssèdre, M. Michou, A. Voldoire, D. J. L. Olivié, D. Saint-Martin, D. Cariolle, S. Senesi, D. Salas Y Melia, A. Alias, F. Karcher, P. Ricaud, and T. Halenka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10027–10048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10027-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10027-2013, 2013
A. Stenke, C. R. Hoyle, B. Luo, E. Rozanov, J. Gröbner, L. Maag, S. Brönnimann, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9713–9729, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9713-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9713-2013, 2013
S. Brönnimann, J. Bhend, J. Franke, S. Flückiger, A. M. Fischer, R. Bleisch, G. Bodeker, B. Hassler, E. Rozanov, and M. Schraner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9623–9639, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9623-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9623-2013, 2013
A. Stenke, M. Schraner, E. Rozanov, T. Egorova, B. Luo, and T. Peter
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1407–1427, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1407-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1407-2013, 2013
J.-F. Lamarque, F. Dentener, J. McConnell, C.-U. Ro, M. Shaw, R. Vet, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, S. Dalsoren, R. Doherty, G. Faluvegi, S. J. Ghan, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, D. Plummer, D. T. Shindell, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, G. Zeng, M. Curran, D. Dahl-Jensen, S. Das, D. Fritzsche, and M. Nolan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7997–8018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7997-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7997-2013, 2013
H. Garny, G. E. Bodeker, D. Smale, M. Dameris, and V. Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7279–7300, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7279-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7279-2013, 2013
Y. Brugnara, S. Brönnimann, J. Luterbacher, and E. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6275–6288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6275-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6275-2013, 2013
V. Naik, A. Voulgarakis, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Lin, M. J. Prather, P. J. Young, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, T. P. C. van Noije, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5277–5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, 2013
V. Zubov, E. Rozanov, T. Egorova, I. Karol, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4697–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4697-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4697-2013, 2013
J. M. Siddaway, S. V. Petelina, D. J. Karoly, A. R. Klekociuk, and R. J. Dargaville
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4413–4427, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013, 2013
K. W. Bowman, D. T. Shindell, H. M. Worden, J.F. Lamarque, P. J. Young, D. S. Stevenson, Z. Qu, M. de la Torre, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. B. Dalsøren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. M. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. A. Plummer, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, G. Zeng, S. S. Kulawik, A. M. Aghedo, and J. R. Worden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4057–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, 2013
I. Ermolli, K. Matthes, T. Dudok de Wit, N. A. Krivova, K. Tourpali, M. Weber, Y. C. Unruh, L. Gray, U. Langematz, P. Pilewskie, E. Rozanov, W. Schmutz, A. Shapiro, S. K. Solanki, and T. N. Woods
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3945–3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, 2013
K. Gottschaldt, C. Voigt, P. Jöckel, M. Righi, R. Deckert, and S. Dietmüller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3003–3025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3003-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3003-2013, 2013
D. S. Stevenson, P. J. Young, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, A. Voulgarakis, R. B. Skeie, S. B. Dalsoren, G. Myhre, T. K. Berntsen, G. A. Folberth, S. T. Rumbold, W. J. Collins, I. A. MacKenzie, R. M. Doherty, G. Zeng, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, D. A. Plummer, S. A. Strode, L. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, S. Szopa, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, B. Josse, I. Cionni, M. Righi, V. Eyring, A. Conley, K. W. Bowman, O. Wild, and A. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013
S. P. Alexander, D. J. Murphy, and A. R. Klekociuk
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3121–3132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3121-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3121-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
P. J. Young, A. T. Archibald, K. W. Bowman, J.-F. Lamarque, V. Naik, D. S. Stevenson, S. Tilmes, A. Voulgarakis, O. Wild, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013
J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, B. Josse, P. J. Young, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. Dalsoren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, S. J. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, and G. Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, 2013
P. J. Telford, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, O. Morgenstern, F. M. O'Connor, N. A. D. Richards, and J. A. Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 161–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-161-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-161-2013, 2013
G. Lacressonnière, V.-H. Peuch, J. Arteta, B. Josse, M. Joly, V. Marécal, D. Saint Martin, M. Déqué, and L. Watson
Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1565–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1565-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1565-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Age of air from in situ trace gas measurements: insights from a new technique
Tropospheric links to uncertainty in stratospheric subseasonal predictions
The impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the total column ozone over the Tibetan Plateau
Exploring ozone variability in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using dynamical coordinates
Climatology of the terms and variables of transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) equations from multiple reanalyses: MERRA-2, JRA-55, ERA-Interim, and CFSR
Quasi-biennial oscillation modulation of stratospheric water vapour in the Asian monsoon
Crucial role of obliquely propagating gravity waves in the quasi-biennial oscillation dynamics
Technical note: Multi-year changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation from Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) methane
Exploring the ENSO modulation of the QBO periods with GISS E2.2 models
The impact of ENSO and NAO initial conditions and anomalies on the modeled response to Pinatubo-sized volcanic forcing
Stratospherically induced circulation changes under the extreme conditions of the no-Montreal-Protocol scenario
Vortex preconditioning of the 2021 sudden stratospheric warming: barotropic–baroclinic instability associated with the double westerly jets
On the pattern of interannual polar vortex–ozone co-variability during northern hemispheric winter
A mountain ridge model for quantifying oblique mountain wave propagation and distribution
Weakening of the tropical tropopause layer cold trap with global warming
On the magnitude and sensitivity of the quasi-biennial oscillation response to a tropical volcanic eruption
The response of the North Pacific jet and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone over western North America to RCP8.5 climate forcing
The Holton–Tan mechanism under stratospheric aerosol intervention
Very-long-period oscillations in the atmosphere (0–110 km) – Part 2: Latitude– longitude comparisons and trends
Driving mechanisms for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation impact on stratospheric ozone
Exploring the link between austral stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and surface climate in chemistry-climate models
The impact of improved spatial and temporal resolution of reanalysis data on Lagrangian studies of the tropical tropopause layer
Dynamics of ENSO-driven stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone over North America
Ozone–gravity wave interaction in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere
How can Brewer–Dobson circulation trends be estimated from changes in stratospheric water vapour and methane?
The semi-annual oscillation (SAO) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS)
Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales
Impacts of three types of solar geoengineering on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Enhanced upward motion through the troposphere over the tropical western Pacific and its implications for the transport of trace gases from the troposphere to the stratosphere
Evolution of the intensity and duration of the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex edge for the period 1979–2020
Characterization of transport from the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone into the UTLS via shedding of low potential vorticity cutoffs
Long-range prediction and the stratosphere
Weakening of Antarctic stratospheric planetary wave activities in early austral spring since the early 2000s: a response to sea surface temperature trends
The impact of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) sinks on age of air climatologies and trends
Specified dynamics scheme impacts on wave-mean flow dynamics, convection, and tracer transport in CESM2 (WACCM6)
Propagation paths and source distributions of resolved gravity waves in ECMWF-IFS analysis fields around the southern polar night jet
Observation and modeling of high-7Be concentration events at the surface in northern Europe associated with the instability of the Arctic polar vortex in early 2003
Eastward-propagating planetary waves in the polar middle atmosphere
The Brewer–Dobson circulation in CMIP6
Climate impact of volcanic eruptions: the sensitivity to eruption season and latitude in MPI-ESM ensemble experiments
Contributions of equatorial waves and small-scale convective gravity waves to the 2019/20 quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) disruption
Differences in the quasi-biennial oscillation response to stratospheric aerosol modification depending on injection strategy and species
The advective Brewer–Dobson circulation in the ERA5 reanalysis: climatology, variability, and trends
Is our dynamical understanding of the circulation changes associated with the Antarctic ozone hole sensitive to the choice of reanalysis dataset?
The impact of increasing stratospheric radiative damping on the quasi-biennial oscillation period
Analysis of recent lower-stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models
Asymmetry and pathways of inter-hemispheric transport in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere
Effects of prescribed CMIP6 ozone on simulating the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation response to ozone depletion
Reanalysis intercomparison of potential vorticity and potential-vorticity-based diagnostics
Influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on entry stratospheric water vapor in coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models
Eric A. Ray, Fred L. Moore, Hella Garny, Eric J. Hintsa, Bradley D. Hall, Geoff S. Dutton, David Nance, James W. Elkins, Steven C. Wofsy, Jasna Pittman, Bruce Daube, Bianca C. Baier, Jianghanyang Li, and Colm Sweeney
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12425–12445, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12425-2024, 2024
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In this study we describe new techniques to derive age of air from multiple simultaneous measurements of long-lived trace gases in order to improve the fidelity of the age-of-air estimates and to be able to compare age of air from measurements taken from different instruments, platforms and decades. This technique also allows new transport information to be obtained from the measurements such as the primary source latitude that can also be compared to models.
Rachel W.-Y. Wu, Gabriel Chiodo, Inna Polichtchouk, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12259–12275, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12259-2024, 2024
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Strong variations in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex can profoundly affect surface weather extremes; therefore, accurately predicting the stratosphere can improve surface weather forecasts. The research reveals how uncertainty in the stratosphere is linked to the troposphere. The findings suggest that refining models to better represent the identified sources and impact regions in the troposphere is likely to improve the prediction of the stratosphere and its surface impacts.
Yang Li, Wuhu Feng, Xin Zhou, Yajuan Li, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8277–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8277-2024, 2024
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The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the highest and largest plateau, experiences strong surface solar UV radiation, whose excess can cause harmful influences on local biota. Hence, it is critical to study TP ozone. We find ENSO, the strongest interannual phenomenon, tends to induce tropospheric temperature change and thus modulate tropopause variability, which in turn favours ozone change over the TP. Our results have implications for a better understanding of the interannual variability of TP ozone.
Luis F. Millán, Peter Hoor, Michaela I. Hegglin, Gloria L. Manney, Harald Boenisch, Paul Jeffery, Daniel Kunkel, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Hao Ye, Thierry Leblanc, and Kaley Walker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7927–7959, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7927-2024, 2024
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In the Observed Composition Trends And Variability in the UTLS (OCTAV-UTLS) Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) activity, we have mapped multiplatform ozone datasets into coordinate systems to systematically evaluate the influence of these coordinates on binned climatological variability. This effort unifies the work of studies that focused on individual coordinate system variability. Our goal was to create the most comprehensive assessment of this topic.
Masatomo Fujiwara, Patrick Martineau, Jonathon S. Wright, Marta Abalos, Petr Šácha, Yoshio Kawatani, Sean M. Davis, Thomas Birner, and Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7873–7898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, 2024
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A climatology of the major variables and terms of the transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) momentum and thermodynamic equations from four global atmospheric reanalyses is evaluated. The spread among reanalysis TEM momentum balance terms is around 10 % in Northern Hemisphere winter and up to 50 % in Southern Hemisphere winter. The largest uncertainties in the thermodynamic equation (about 50 %) are in the vertical advection, which does not show a structure consistent with the differences in heating.
Cristina Peña-Ortiz, Nuria Pilar Plaza, David Gallego, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5457–5478, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5457-2024, 2024
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Although water vapour (H2O) in the lower stratosphere is only a few molecules among 1 million air molecules, atmospheric radiative forcing and surface temperature are sensitive to changes in its concentration. Monsoon regions play a key role in H2O transport and its concentration in the lower stratosphere. We show how the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) has a major impact on H2O over the Asian monsoon during August through changes in temperature caused by QBO modulation of tropical clouds.
Young-Ha Kim, Georg Sebastian Voelker, Gergely Bölöni, Günther Zängl, and Ulrich Achatz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3297–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3297-2024, 2024
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The quasi-biennial oscillation, which governs the tropical stratospheric circulation, is driven primarily by small-scale wave processes. We employ a novel method to realistically represent these wave processes in a global model, thereby revealing an aspect of the oscillation that has not been identified before. We find that the oblique propagation of waves, a process neglected by existing climate models, plays a pivotal role in the stratospheric circulation and its oscillation.
Ellis Remsberg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1691–1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1691-2024, 2024
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CH4 data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment show clear changes in the deep and shallow branches of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) from 1992 to 2005. CH4 decreased in the upper stratosphere in the early 1990s following the Pinatubo eruption. There was also meridional transport of CH4 from the tropics to mid-latitudes in both hemispheres in the late 1990s. CH4 trends in the shallow branch agree with the tropospheric CH4 trends from 1996 to 2005.
Tiehan Zhou, Kevin J. DallaSanta, Clara Orbe, David H. Rind, Jeffrey A. Jonas, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Gary Russell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 509–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024, 2024
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to speed up and slow down the phase speed of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during El Niño and La Niña, respectively. The ENSO modulation of the QBO does not show up in the climate models with parameterized but temporally constant gravity wave sources. We show that the GISS E2.2 models can capture the observed ENSO modulation of the QBO period with a horizontal resolution of 2° by 2.5° and its gravity wave sources parameterized interactively.
Helen Weierbach, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15491–15505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, 2023
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Volcanic aerosols impact global and regional climate conditions but can vary depending on pre-existing initial climate conditions. We ran an ensemble of volcanic aerosol simulations under varying ENSO and NAO initial conditions to understand how initial climate states impact the modeled response to volcanic forcing. Overall we found that initial NAO conditions can impact the strength of the first winter post-eruptive response but are also affected by the choice of anomaly and sampling routine.
Franziska Zilker, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Tatiana Egorova, Eugene Rozanov, Jan Sedlacek, Svenja Seeber, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13387–13411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023, 2023
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The Montreal Protocol (MP) has successfully reduced the Antarctic ozone hole by banning chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that destroy the ozone layer. Moreover, CFCs are strong greenhouse gases (GHGs) that would have strengthened global warming. In this study, we investigate the surface weather and climate in a world without the MP at the end of the 21st century, disentangling ozone-mediated and GHG impacts of CFCs. Overall, we avoided 1.7 K global surface warming and a poleward shift in storm tracks.
Ji-Hee Yoo, Hye-Yeong Chun, and Min-Jee Kang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10869–10881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10869-2023, 2023
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The January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming was preceded by unusual double westerly jets with polar stratospheric and subtropical mesospheric cores. This wind structure promotes anomalous dissipation of tropospheric planetary waves between the two maxima, leading to unusually strong shear instability. Shear instability generates the westward-propagating planetary waves with zonal wavenumber 2 in situ, thereby splitting the polar vortex just before the onset.
Frederik Harzer, Hella Garny, Felix Ploeger, Harald Bönisch, Peter Hoor, and Thomas Birner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10661–10675, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10661-2023, 2023
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We study the statistical relation between year-by-year fluctuations in winter-mean ozone and the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. In the latitude–pressure plane, regression analysis shows that anomalously weak polar vortex years are associated with three pronounced local ozone maxima over the polar cap relative to the winter climatology. These response maxima primarily reflect the non-trivial combination of different ozone transport processes with varying relative contributions.
Sebastian Rhode, Peter Preusse, Manfred Ern, Jörn Ungermann, Lukas Krasauskas, Julio Bacmeister, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7901–7934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7901-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7901-2023, 2023
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Gravity waves (GWs) transport energy vertically and horizontally within the atmosphere and thereby affect wind speeds far from their sources. Here, we present a model that identifies orographic GW sources and predicts the pathways of the excited GWs through the atmosphere for a better understanding of horizontal GW propagation. We use this model to explain physical patterns in satellite observations (e.g., low GW activity above the Himalaya) and predict seasonal patterns of GW propagation.
Stephen Bourguet and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7447–7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7447-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7447-2023, 2023
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Here, we show how projected changes to tropical circulation will impact the water vapor concentration in the lower stratosphere, which has implications for surface climate and stratospheric chemistry. In our transport scenarios with slower east–west winds, air parcels ascending into the stratosphere do not experience the same cold temperatures that they would today. This effect could act in concert with previously modeled changes to stratospheric water vapor to amplify surface warming.
Flossie Brown, Lauren Marshall, Peter H. Haynes, Rolando R. Garcia, Thomas Birner, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5335–5353, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, 2023
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Large-magnitude volcanic eruptions have the potential to alter large-scale circulation patterns, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is an oscillation of the tropical stratospheric zonal winds between easterly and westerly directions. Using a climate model, we show that large-magnitude eruptions can delay the progression of the QBO, with a much longer delay when the shear is easterly than when it is westerly. Such delays may affect weather and transport of atmospheric gases.
Dillon Elsbury, Amy H. Butler, John R. Albers, Melissa L. Breeden, and Andrew O'Neil Langford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5101–5117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, 2023
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One of the global hotspots where stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone takes place is over Pacific North America (PNA). However, we do not know how or if STT over PNA will change in response to climate change. Using climate model experiments forced with
worst-casescenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change, we find that changes in net chemical production and transport of ozone in the lower stratosphere increase STT of ozone over PNA in the future.
Khalil Karami, Rolando Garcia, Christoph Jacobi, Jadwiga H. Richter, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3799–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, 2023
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Alongside mitigation and adaptation efforts, stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) is increasingly considered a third pillar to combat dangerous climate change. We investigate the teleconnection between the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere and the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex under a warmer climate and an SAI scenario. We show that the Holton–Tan relationship weakens under both scenarios and discuss the physical mechanisms responsible for such changes.
Dirk Offermann, Christoph Kalicinsky, Ralf Koppmann, and Johannes Wintel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3267–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3267-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric oscillations with periods between 5 and more than 200 years are believed to be self-excited (internal) in the atmosphere, i.e. non-anthropogenic. They are found at all altitudes up to 110 km and at four very different geographical locations (75° N, 70° E; 75° N, 280° E; 50° N, 7° E; 50° S, 7° E). Therefore, they hint at a global-oscillation mode. Their amplitudes are on the order of present-day climate trends, and it is therefore difficult to disentangle them.
Samuel Benito-Barca, Natalia Calvo, and Marta Abalos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15729–15745, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15729-2022, 2022
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The impact of different El Niño flavors (eastern (EP) and central (CP) Pacific El Niño) and La Niña on the stratospheric ozone is studied in a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model. Ozone reduces in the tropics and increases in the extratropics when an EP El Niño event occurs, the opposite of La Niña. However, CP El Niño has no impact on extratropical ozone. These ozone variations are driven by changes in the stratospheric transport circulation, with an important contribution of mixing.
Nora Bergner, Marina Friedel, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Darryn Waugh, and Gabriel Chiodo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13915–13934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, 2022
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Polar vortex extremes, particularly situations with an unusually weak cyclonic circulation in the stratosphere, can influence the surface climate in the spring–summer time in the Southern Hemisphere. Using chemistry-climate models and observations, we evaluate the robustness of the surface impacts. While models capture the general surface response, they do not show the observed climate patterns in midlatitude regions, which we trace back to biases in the models' circulations.
Stephen Bourguet and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13325–13339, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13325-2022, 2022
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Here, we tested the impact of spatial and temporal resolution on Lagrangian trajectory studies in a key region of interest for climate feedbacks and stratospheric chemistry. Our analysis shows that new higher-resolution input data provide an opportunity for a better understanding of physical processes that control how air moves from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Future studies of how these processes will change in a warming climate will benefit from these results.
John R. Albers, Amy H. Butler, Andrew O. Langford, Dillon Elsbury, and Melissa L. Breeden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13035–13048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, 2022
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Ozone transported from the stratosphere contributes to background ozone concentrations in the free troposphere and to surface ozone exceedance events that affect human health. The physical processes whereby the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates North American stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone transport during spring are documented, and the usefulness of ENSO for predicting ozone events that may cause exceedances in surface air quality standards are assessed.
Axel Gabriel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10425–10441, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10425-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10425-2022, 2022
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Recent measurements show some evidence that the amplitudes of atmospheric gravity waves (horizontal wavelengths of 100–2000 km), which propagate from the troposphere (0–10 km) to the stratosphere and mesosphere (10–100 km), increase more strongly with height during daytime than during nighttime. This study shows that ozone–temperature coupling in the upper stratosphere can principally produce such an amplification. The results will help to improve atmospheric circulation models.
Liubov Poshyvailo-Strube, Rolf Müller, Stephan Fueglistaler, Michaela I. Hegglin, Johannes C. Laube, C. Michael Volk, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9895–9914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9895-2022, 2022
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Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) controls the composition of the stratosphere, which in turn affects radiation and climate. As the BDC cannot be measured directly, it is necessary to infer its strength and trends indirectly. In this study, we test in the
model worlddifferent methods for estimating the mean age of air trends based on a combination of stratospheric water vapour and methane data. We also provide simple practical advice of a more reliable estimation of the mean age of air trends.
Ming Shangguan and Wuke Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9499–9511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9499-2022, 2022
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Skilful predictions of weather and climate on subseasonal to seasonal scales are valuable for decision makers. Here we show the global spatiotemporal variation of the temperature SAO in the UTLS with GNSS RO and reanalysis data. The formation of the SAO is explained by an energy budget analysis. The results show that the SAO in the UTLS is partly modified by the SSTs according to model simulations. The results may provide an important source for seasonal predictions of the surface weather.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, and Bablu Sinha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4867–4893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, 2022
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This study examines interactions between variations in the strength of polar stratospheric winds and circulation in the North Atlantic in a climate model simulation. It finds that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) responds with oscillations to sets of consecutive Northern Hemisphere winters, which show all strong or all weak polar vortex conditions. The study also shows that a set of strong vortex winters in the 1990s contributed to the recent slowdown in the observed AMOC.
Mengdie Xie, John C. Moore, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4581–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4581-2022, 2022
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We use data from six Earth system models to estimate Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) changes and its drivers under four different solar geoengineering methods. Solar dimming seems relatively more effective than marine cloud brightening or stratospheric aerosol injection at reversing greenhouse-gas-driven declines in AMOC. Geoengineering-induced AMOC amelioration is due to better maintenance of air–sea temperature differences and reduced loss of Arctic summer sea ice.
Kai Qie, Wuke Wang, Wenshou Tian, Rui Huang, Mian Xu, Tao Wang, and Yifeng Peng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4393–4411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4393-2022, 2022
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We identify a significantly intensified upward motion over the tropical western Pacific (TWP) and an enhanced tropical upwelling in boreal winter during 1958–2017 due to the warming of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our results suggest that more tropospheric trace gases over the TWP could be elevated to the lower stratosphere, which implies that the emission from the maritime continent plays a more important role in the stratospheric processes and the global climate.
Audrey Lecouffe, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Andrea Pazmiño, and Alain Hauchecorne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4187–4200, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4187-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4187-2022, 2022
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This study uses a model developped at LATMOS (France) to analyze the behavior of the Antarctic polar vortex from 1979 to 2020 at 675 K, 550 K, and 475 K isentropic levels. We found that the vortex edge intensity is stronger during the September–October–November period, while its edge position is less extended during this period. The polar vortex is stronger and lasts longer during solar minimum years. Breakup dates of the polar vortex are linked to the ozone hole and maximum wind speed.
Jan Clemens, Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3841–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, 2022
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Highly polluted air flows from the surface to higher levels of the atmosphere during the Asian summer monsoon. At high levels, the air is trapped within eddies. Here, we study how air masses can leave the eddy within its cutoff, how they distribute, and how their chemical composition changes. We found evidence for transport from the eddy to higher latitudes over the North Pacific and even Alaska. During transport, trace gas concentrations within cutoffs changed gradually, showing steady mixing.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
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Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Yihang Hu, Wenshou Tian, Jiankai Zhang, Tao Wang, and Mian Xu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1575–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1575-2022, 2022
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Antarctic stratospheric wave activities in September have been weakening significantly since the 2000s. Further analysis supports the finding that sea surface temperature (SST) trends over 20° N–70° S lead to the weakening of stratospheric wave activities, while the response of stratospheric wave activities to ozone recovery is weak. Thus, the SST trend should be taken into consideration when exploring the mechanism for the climate transition in the southern hemispheric stratosphere around 2000.
Sheena Loeffel, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Reddmann, Frauke Fritsch, Stefan Versick, Gabriele Stiller, and Florian Haenel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1175–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, 2022
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SF6-derived trends of stratospheric AoA from observations and model simulations disagree in sign. SF6 experiences chemical degradation, which we explicitly integrate in a global climate model. In our simulations, the AoA trend changes sign when SF6 sinks are considered; thus, the process has the potential to reconcile simulated with observed AoA trends. We show that the positive AoA trend is due to the SF6 sinks themselves and provide a first approach for a correction to account for SF6 loss.
Nicholas A. Davis, Patrick Callaghan, Isla R. Simpson, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 197–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, 2022
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Specified dynamics schemes attempt to constrain the atmospheric circulation in a climate model to isolate the role of transport in chemical variability, evaluate model physics, and interpret field campaign observations. We show that the specified dynamics scheme in CESM2 erroneously suppresses convection and induces circulation errors that project onto errors in tracers, even using the most optimal settings. Development of a more sophisticated scheme is necessary for future progress.
Cornelia Strube, Peter Preusse, Manfred Ern, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18641–18668, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18641-2021, 2021
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High gravity wave (GW) momentum fluxes in the lower stratospheric southern polar vortex around 60° S are still poorly understood. Few GW sources are found at these latitudes. We present a ray tracing case study on waves resolved in high-resolution global model temperatures southeast of New Zealand. We show that lateral propagation of more than 1000 km takes place below 20 km altitude, and a variety of orographic and non-orographic sources located north of 50° S generate the wave field.
Erika Brattich, Hongyu Liu, Bo Zhang, Miguel Ángel Hernández-Ceballos, Jussi Paatero, Darko Sarvan, Vladimir Djurdjevic, Laura Tositti, and Jelena Ajtić
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17927–17951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17927-2021, 2021
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In this study we analyse the output of a chemistry and transport model together with observations of different meteorological and compositional variables to demonstrate the link between sudden stratospheric warming and transport of stratospheric air to the surface in the subpolar regions of Europe during the cold season. Our findings have particular implications for atmospheric composition since climate projections indicate more frequent sudden stratospheric warming under a warmer climate.
Liang Tang, Sheng-Yang Gu, and Xian-Kang Dou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17495–17512, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17495-2021, 2021
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Our study explores the variation in the occurrence date, peak amplitude and wave period for eastward waves and the role of instability, background wind structure and the critical layer in eastward wave propagation and amplification.
Marta Abalos, Natalia Calvo, Samuel Benito-Barca, Hella Garny, Steven C. Hardiman, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Rolando Garcia, Clara Orbe, David Saint-Martin, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13571–13591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, 2021
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The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), responsible for transporting mass, tracers and heat globally in the stratosphere, is evaluated in a set of state-of-the-art climate models. The acceleration of the BDC in response to increasing greenhouse gases is most robust in the lower stratosphere. At higher levels, the well-known inconsistency between model and observational BDC trends can be partly reconciled by accounting for limited sampling and large uncertainties in the observations.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
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The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
Min-Jee Kang and Hye-Yeong Chun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9839–9857, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9839-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9839-2021, 2021
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In winter 2019/20, the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase was disrupted again by easterly winds. It is found that strong Rossby waves from the Southern Hemisphere weaken the jet core in early stages, and strong mixed Rossby–gravity waves reverse the wind in later stages. Inertia–gravity waves and small-scale convective gravity waves also provide negative forcing. These strong waves are attributed to an anomalous wind profile, barotropic instability, and slightly strong convection.
Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8615–8635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric aerosol modification (SAM) can alter the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our simulations with two different models show that the characteristics of the QBO response are primarily determined by the meridional structure of the aerosol-induced heating. Therefore, the QBO response to SAM depends primarily on the location of injection, while injection type and rate act to scale the specific response. Our results have important implications for evaluating adverse side effects of SAM.
Mohamadou Diallo, Manfred Ern, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7515–7544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7515-2021, 2021
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Despite good agreement in the spatial structure, there are substantial differences in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) and its modulations in the UTLS and upper stratosphere. The tropical upwelling is generally weaker in ERA5 than in ERAI due to weaker planetary and gravity wave breaking in the UTLS. Analysis of the BDC trend shows an acceleration of the BDC of about 1.5 % decade-1 due to the long-term intensification in wave breaking, consistent with climate predictions.
Andrew Orr, Hua Lu, Patrick Martineau, Edwin P. Gerber, Gareth J. Marshall, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7451–7472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021, 2021
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Reanalysis datasets combine observations and weather forecast simulations to create our best estimate of the state of the atmosphere and are important for climate monitoring. Differences in the technical details of these products mean that they may give different results. This study therefore examined how changes associated with the so-called Antarctic ozone hole are represented, which is one of the most important climate changes in recent decades, and showed that they were broadly consistent.
Tiehan Zhou, Kevin DallaSanta, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Zhonghai Jin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7395–7407, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7395-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7395-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric radiative damping increases with rising CO2. Sensitivity experiments using the one-dimensional mechanistic models of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) indicate a shortening of the simulated QBO period due to the enhancing of the radiative damping. This result suggests that increasing radiative damping may play a role in determining the QBO period in a warming climate along with wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity.
Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Roland Eichinger, and William T. Ball
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6811–6837, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, 2021
Xiaolu Yan, Paul Konopka, Marius Hauck, Aurélien Podglajen, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6627–6645, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6627-2021, 2021
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Inter-hemispheric transport is important for understanding atmospheric tracers because of the asymmetry in emissions between the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH). This study finds that the air masses from the NH extratropics to the atmosphere are about 5 times larger than those from the SH extratropics. The interplay between the Asian summer monsoon and westerly ducts triggers the cross-Equator transport from the NH to the SH in boreal summer and fall.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5777–5806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, 2021
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The Antarctic ozone hole has driven substantial dynamical changes in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere over the past decades. This study separates the historical impacts of ozone depletion from those of rising levels of greenhouse gases and investigates how these impacts are captured in two types of climate models: one using interactive atmospheric chemistry and one prescribing the CMIP6 ozone field. The effects of ozone depletion are more pronounced in the model with interactive chemistry.
Luis F. Millán, Gloria L. Manney, and Zachary D. Lawrence
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5355–5376, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5355-2021, 2021
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We assess how consistently reanalyses represent potential vorticity (PV) among each other. PV helps describe dynamical processes in the stratosphere because it acts approximately as a tracer of the movement of air parcels; it is extensively used to identify the location of the tropopause and to identify and characterize the stratospheric polar vortex. Overall, PV from all reanalyses agrees well with the reanalysis ensemble mean.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
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Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
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Short summary
Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric...
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