Articles | Volume 18, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Aug 2018
Research article |
| 13 Aug 2018
| 13 Aug 2018
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
Dpto. Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad
Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain
previously at: College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical
Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Columbia University, New York, USA
Ulrike Langematz
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin,
Germany
Hideharu Akiyoshi
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
Slimane Bekki
LATMOS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France
Neal Butchart
Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), Exeter, UK
Martin Dameris
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für
Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Makoto Deushi
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan
Steven C. Hardiman
Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), Exeter, UK
Patrick Jöckel
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für
Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Andrew Klekociuk
Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia
Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre,
Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Marion Marchand
LATMOS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France
Martine Michou
CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
Olaf Morgenstern
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA),
Wellington, New Zealand
Fiona M. O'Connor
Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), Exeter, UK
Luke D. Oman
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight
Center (NASA GSFC), Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
David A. Plummer
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montréal, Canada
Laura Revell
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich
(ETHZ), Zürich, Switzerland
Bodeker Scientific, Christchurch, New Zealand
Eugene Rozanov
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation
Centre, Davos, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich
(ETHZ), Zürich, Switzerland
David Saint-Martin
CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
John Scinocca
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montréal, Canada
Andrea Stenke
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich
(ETHZ), Zürich, Switzerland
Kane Stone
School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne,
Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Sydney,
Australia
now at: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Boston,
Massachusetts, USA
Yousuke Yamashita
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
now at: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
(JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Kohei Yoshida
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan
Guang Zeng
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA),
Wellington, New Zealand
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Cited
39 citations as recorded by crossref.
- 100 Years of Progress in Understanding the Stratosphere and Mesosphere M. Baldwin et al. 10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-19-0003.1
- Effects of Energetic Particle Precipitation on Stratospheric Temperature During Disturbed Stratospheric Polar Vortex Conditions J. Edvartsen et al. 10.1029/2022JD038010
- Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere‐Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 1. Inter‐Model Spread and Scenario Sensitivity A. Karpechko et al. 10.1029/2022JD036992
- Opposite Impacts of Interannual and Decadal Pacific Variability in the Extratropics M. Seabrook et al. 10.1029/2022GL101226
- Robust winter warming over Eurasia under stratospheric sulfate geoengineering – the role of stratospheric dynamics A. Banerjee et al. 10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021
- Long-range prediction and the stratosphere A. Scaife et al. 10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
- Role of the stratospheric chemistry–climate interactions in the hot climate conditions of the Eocene S. Szopa et al. 10.5194/cp-15-1187-2019
- On the representation of major stratospheric warmings in reanalyses B. Ayarzagüena et al. 10.5194/acp-19-9469-2019
- Impact of the Pacific sector sea ice loss on the sudden stratospheric warming characteristics J. Zhang et al. 10.1038/s41612-022-00296-w
- The effect of interactive ozone chemistry on weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events J. Oehrlein et al. 10.5194/acp-20-10531-2020
- Role of Stratospheric Processes in Climate Change: Advances and Challenges W. Tian et al. 10.1007/s00376-023-2341-1
- Abnormally Long Absence of Polar Stratospheric Clouds in the Arctic in Midwinter According to Satellite Observations V. Zuev et al. 10.31857/S0205961423010128
- Influence of Arctic stratospheric ozone on surface climate in CCMI models O. Harari et al. 10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019
- Radiative and dynamic contributions to the observed temperature trends in the Arctic winter atmosphere K. Bloxam & Y. Huang 10.1007/s00382-022-06332-y
- Large-ensemble assessment of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex morphology and disruptions A. Kuchar et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-895-2024
- Elevated stratopause events in the current and a future climate: A chemistry-climate model study J. Scheffler et al. 10.1016/j.jastp.2021.105804
- Observed Relationships Between Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and European Climate Extremes A. King et al. 10.1029/2019JD030480
- Estimating the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events From Surface Observations of the North Atlantic Oscillation D. Domeisen 10.1029/2018JD030077
- Notes on the correlation between sudden stratospheric warmings and solar activity E. Vorobeva 10.5194/angeo-37-375-2019
- Stratospheric and Tropospheric Flux Contributions to the Polar Cap Energy Budgets C. Cardinale et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0722.1
- Variations in the Frequency of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in CMIP5 and CMIP6 and Possible Causes Z. Wu & T. Reichler 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0104.1
- CMIP5/6 models project little change in the statistical characteristics of sudden stratospheric warmings in the 21st century J. Rao & C. Garfinkel 10.1088/1748-9326/abd4fe
- How Frequent Are Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Present and Future Climate? M. Jucker et al. 10.1029/2021GL093215
- Arctic polar vortex dynamics during winters 2014/2015 and 2020/2021 V. Zuev et al. 10.30758/0555-2648-2023-69-2-114-123
- Quantifying two-way influences between the Arctic and mid-latitudes through regionally increased CO2 concentrations in coupled climate simulations T. Semmler et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05171-z
- Drivers and Surface Signal of Interannual Variability of Boreal Stratospheric Final Warmings R. Thiéblemont et al. 10.1029/2018JD029852
- Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change M. Friedel et al. 10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023
- Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events R. Hall et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3
- Abnormally Long Absence of Polar Stratospheric Clouds in the Arctic in Midwinter According to Satellite Observations V. Zuev et al. 10.1134/S0001433823090232
- The Snowball Stratosphere R. Graham et al. 10.1029/2019JD031361
- Simulation and projection of the sudden stratospheric warming events in different scenarios by CESM2-WACCM Z. Liang et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06293-2
- Persistent Model Biases in the CMIP6 Representation of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Variability R. Hall et al. 10.1029/2021JD034759
- The Downward Influence of Uncertainty in the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Response to Climate Change I. Simpson et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0041.1
- Arctic polar vortex splitting in early January: The role of Arctic sea ice loss V. Zuev & E. Savelieva 10.1016/j.jastp.2019.105137
- Emergence of representative signals for sudden stratospheric warmings beyond current predictable lead times Z. Wu et al. 10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021
- Analyzing ozone variations and uncertainties at high latitudes during sudden stratospheric warming events using MERRA-2 S. Bahramvash Shams et al. 10.5194/acp-22-5435-2022
- The Influence of Interdecadal Changes in Boreal Winter Teleconnections Around the 1980s on Planetary Waves and Stratospheric Sudden Warmings Y. Li & Z. Wen 10.1029/2021JD035341
- Why Are Stratospheric Sudden Warmings Sudden (and Intermittent)? N. Nakamura et al. 10.1175/JAS-D-19-0249.1
- Polar Climate Change as Manifest in Atmospheric Circulation J. Screen et al. 10.1007/s40641-018-0111-4
38 citations as recorded by crossref.
- 100 Years of Progress in Understanding the Stratosphere and Mesosphere M. Baldwin et al. 10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-19-0003.1
- Effects of Energetic Particle Precipitation on Stratospheric Temperature During Disturbed Stratospheric Polar Vortex Conditions J. Edvartsen et al. 10.1029/2022JD038010
- Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere‐Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 1. Inter‐Model Spread and Scenario Sensitivity A. Karpechko et al. 10.1029/2022JD036992
- Opposite Impacts of Interannual and Decadal Pacific Variability in the Extratropics M. Seabrook et al. 10.1029/2022GL101226
- Robust winter warming over Eurasia under stratospheric sulfate geoengineering – the role of stratospheric dynamics A. Banerjee et al. 10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021
- Long-range prediction and the stratosphere A. Scaife et al. 10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
- Role of the stratospheric chemistry–climate interactions in the hot climate conditions of the Eocene S. Szopa et al. 10.5194/cp-15-1187-2019
- On the representation of major stratospheric warmings in reanalyses B. Ayarzagüena et al. 10.5194/acp-19-9469-2019
- Impact of the Pacific sector sea ice loss on the sudden stratospheric warming characteristics J. Zhang et al. 10.1038/s41612-022-00296-w
- The effect of interactive ozone chemistry on weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events J. Oehrlein et al. 10.5194/acp-20-10531-2020
- Role of Stratospheric Processes in Climate Change: Advances and Challenges W. Tian et al. 10.1007/s00376-023-2341-1
- Abnormally Long Absence of Polar Stratospheric Clouds in the Arctic in Midwinter According to Satellite Observations V. Zuev et al. 10.31857/S0205961423010128
- Influence of Arctic stratospheric ozone on surface climate in CCMI models O. Harari et al. 10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019
- Radiative and dynamic contributions to the observed temperature trends in the Arctic winter atmosphere K. Bloxam & Y. Huang 10.1007/s00382-022-06332-y
- Large-ensemble assessment of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex morphology and disruptions A. Kuchar et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-895-2024
- Elevated stratopause events in the current and a future climate: A chemistry-climate model study J. Scheffler et al. 10.1016/j.jastp.2021.105804
- Observed Relationships Between Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and European Climate Extremes A. King et al. 10.1029/2019JD030480
- Estimating the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events From Surface Observations of the North Atlantic Oscillation D. Domeisen 10.1029/2018JD030077
- Notes on the correlation between sudden stratospheric warmings and solar activity E. Vorobeva 10.5194/angeo-37-375-2019
- Stratospheric and Tropospheric Flux Contributions to the Polar Cap Energy Budgets C. Cardinale et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0722.1
- Variations in the Frequency of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in CMIP5 and CMIP6 and Possible Causes Z. Wu & T. Reichler 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0104.1
- CMIP5/6 models project little change in the statistical characteristics of sudden stratospheric warmings in the 21st century J. Rao & C. Garfinkel 10.1088/1748-9326/abd4fe
- How Frequent Are Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Present and Future Climate? M. Jucker et al. 10.1029/2021GL093215
- Arctic polar vortex dynamics during winters 2014/2015 and 2020/2021 V. Zuev et al. 10.30758/0555-2648-2023-69-2-114-123
- Quantifying two-way influences between the Arctic and mid-latitudes through regionally increased CO2 concentrations in coupled climate simulations T. Semmler et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05171-z
- Drivers and Surface Signal of Interannual Variability of Boreal Stratospheric Final Warmings R. Thiéblemont et al. 10.1029/2018JD029852
- Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change M. Friedel et al. 10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023
- Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events R. Hall et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3
- Abnormally Long Absence of Polar Stratospheric Clouds in the Arctic in Midwinter According to Satellite Observations V. Zuev et al. 10.1134/S0001433823090232
- The Snowball Stratosphere R. Graham et al. 10.1029/2019JD031361
- Simulation and projection of the sudden stratospheric warming events in different scenarios by CESM2-WACCM Z. Liang et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06293-2
- Persistent Model Biases in the CMIP6 Representation of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Variability R. Hall et al. 10.1029/2021JD034759
- The Downward Influence of Uncertainty in the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Response to Climate Change I. Simpson et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0041.1
- Arctic polar vortex splitting in early January: The role of Arctic sea ice loss V. Zuev & E. Savelieva 10.1016/j.jastp.2019.105137
- Emergence of representative signals for sudden stratospheric warmings beyond current predictable lead times Z. Wu et al. 10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021
- Analyzing ozone variations and uncertainties at high latitudes during sudden stratospheric warming events using MERRA-2 S. Bahramvash Shams et al. 10.5194/acp-22-5435-2022
- The Influence of Interdecadal Changes in Boreal Winter Teleconnections Around the 1980s on Planetary Waves and Stratospheric Sudden Warmings Y. Li & Z. Wen 10.1029/2021JD035341
- Why Are Stratospheric Sudden Warmings Sudden (and Intermittent)? N. Nakamura et al. 10.1175/JAS-D-19-0249.1
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 30 Dec 2024
Short summary
Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric...
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