Articles | Volume 18, issue 15
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, 2018

Special issue: Chemistry–Climate Modelling Initiative (CCMI) (ACP/AMT/ESSD/GMD...

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, 2018

Research article 13 Aug 2018

Research article | 13 Aug 2018

No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI

Blanca Ayarzagüena et al.


Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Blanca Ayarzagüena on behalf of the Authors (29 Jun 2018)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (03 Jul 2018) by Gunnar Myhre
Short summary
Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
Final-revised paper