Articles | Volume 18, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
Research article
 | 
13 Aug 2018
Research article |  | 13 Aug 2018

No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI

Blanca Ayarzagüena, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Ulrike Langematz, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Steven C. Hardiman, Patrick Jöckel, Andrew Klekociuk, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng

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AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Blanca Ayarzagüena on behalf of the Authors (29 Jun 2018)  Author's response   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (03 Jul 2018) by Gunnar Myhre
AR by Blanca Ayarzagüena on behalf of the Authors (10 Jul 2018)  Manuscript 
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Short summary
Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
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