Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022
Research article
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10 May 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 10 May 2022

Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies

Guus J. M. Velders, John S. Daniel, Stephen A. Montzka, Isaac Vimont, Matthew Rigby, Paul B. Krummel, Jens Muhle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, and Dickon Young

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Cited articles

EU: Directive 2006/40/EC of the European parliament and of the council of 17 May 2006 relating to emissions from air-conditioning systems in motor vehicles, Official J. EU, L161, 12–18, 2006. 
EU: Regulation (EC) No 517/2014 of the European parliament and of the council of 16 April 2014 on fluorinated greenhouse gases and repealing Regulation (EC) No 842/2006, Official J. EU, L 150, 195–230, 2014. 
Fang, X., Velders, G. J. M., Ravishankara, A. R., Molina, M. J., Hu, J., and Prinn, R. G.: Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions in China: An inventory for 2005–2013 and projections to 2050, Environ. Sci. Technol., 50, 2027–2034, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b04376, 2016. 
Flerlage, H., Velders, G. J. M., and de Boer, J.: A review of bottom-up and top-down emission estimates of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in different parts of the world, Chemosphere, 283, 131208, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2021.131208, 2021. 
Gschrey, B., Schwarz, W., Elsner, C., and Engelhardt, R.: High increase of global F-gas emissions until 2050, Greenhouse Gas Measurement & Management, 1, 85–92, https://doi.org/10.1080/20430779.2011.579352, 2011. 
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Short summary
The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past as a result of the phasing out of ozone-depleting substances. Observations indicate that HFCs are used much less in certain refrigeration applications than previously projected. Current policies are projected to reduce emissions and the surface temperature contribution of HFCs from 0.28–0.44 °C to 0.14–0.31 °C in 2100. The Kigali Amendment is projected to reduce the contributions further to 0.04 °C in 2100.
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