Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
10 May 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 10 May 2022

Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies

Guus J. M. Velders, John S. Daniel, Stephen A. Montzka, Isaac Vimont, Matthew Rigby, Paul B. Krummel, Jens Muhle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, and Dickon Young

Related authors

The return to 1980 stratospheric halogen levels: a moving target in ozone assessments from 2006 to 2022
Megan J. Lickley, John S. Daniel, Laura A. McBride, Ross J. Salawitch, and Guus J. M. Velders
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13081–13099, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13081-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13081-2024, 2024
Short summary
A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Advances in air quality research – current and emerging challenges
Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Nicolas Moussiopoulos, Alexander Baklanov, John Bartzis, Isabelle Coll, Sandro Finardi, Rainer Friedrich, Camilla Geels, Tiia Grönholm, Tomas Halenka, Matthias Ketzel, Androniki Maragkidou, Volker Matthias, Jana Moldanova, Leonidas Ntziachristos, Klaus Schäfer, Peter Suppan, George Tsegas, Greg Carmichael, Vicente Franco, Steve Hanna, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Guus J. M. Velders, and Jaakko Kukkonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4615–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4615-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4615-2022, 2022
Short summary
Trifluoroacetic acid deposition from emissions of HFO-1234yf in India, China, and the Middle East
Liji M. David, Mary Barth, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pallav Purohit, Guus J. M. Velders, Sam Glaser, and A. R. Ravishankara
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14833–14849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14833-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14833-2021, 2021
Short summary
The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500
Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Matthew J. Gidden, Elisabeth Vogel, Mandy Freund, Urs Beyerle, Claudia Gessner, Alexander Nauels, Nico Bauer, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Andrew John, Paul B. Krummel, Gunnar Luderer, Nicolai Meinshausen, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Stefan Reimann, Steven J. Smith, Marten van den Berg, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, and Ray H. J. Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
Modelling Arctic lower-tropospheric ozone: processes controlling seasonal variations
Wanmin Gong, Stephen R. Beagley, Kenjiro Toyota, Henrik Skov, Jesper Heile Christensen, Alex Lupu, Diane Pendlebury, Junhua Zhang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Roberto Sommariva, Peter Effertz, John W. Halfacre, Nis Jepsen, Rigel Kivi, Theodore K. Koenig, Katrin Müller, Claus Nordstrøm, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Paul B. Shepson, William R. Simpson, Sverre Solberg, Ralf M. Staebler, David W. Tarasick, Roeland Van Malderen, and Mika Vestenius
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8355–8405, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8355-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8355-2025, 2025
Short summary
Influence of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds emission changes on tropospheric ozone variability, trends and radiative effect
Suvarna Fadnavis, Yasin Elshorbany, Jerald Ziemke, Brice Barret, Alexandru Rap, P. R. Satheesh Chandran, Richard J. Pope, Vijay Sagar, Domenico Taraborrelli, Eric Le Flochmoen, Juan Cuesta, Catherine Wespes, Folkert Boersma, Isolde Glissenaar, Isabelle De Smedt, Michel Van Roozendael, Hervé Petetin, and Isidora Anglou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8229–8254, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8229-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8229-2025, 2025
Short summary
Tropospheric ozone trends and attributions over East and Southeast Asia in 1995–2019: an integrated assessment using statistical methods, machine learning models, and multiple chemical transport models
Xiao Lu, Yiming Liu, Jiayin Su, Xiang Weng, Tabish Ansari, Yuqiang Zhang, Guowen He, Yuqi Zhu, Haolin Wang, Ganquan Zeng, Jingyu Li, Cheng He, Shuai Li, Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen, Tim Butler, Qi Fan, Shaojia Fan, Grant L. Forster, Meng Gao, Jianlin Hu, Yugo Kanaya, Mohd Talib Latif, Keding Lu, Philippe Nédélec, Peer Nowack, Bastien Sauvage, Xiaobin Xu, Lin Zhang, Ke Li, Ja-Ho Koo, and Tatsuya Nagashima
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7991–8028, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025, 2025
Short summary
Characterization of reactive oxidized nitrogen in the global upper troposphere using recent and historic commercial and research aircraft campaigns and GEOS-Chem
Nana Wei, Eloise A. Marais, Gongda Lu, Robert G. Ryan, and Bastien Sauvage
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7925–7940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7925-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7925-2025, 2025
Short summary
Soil deposition of atmospheric hydrogen constrained using planetary-scale observations
Alexander K. Tardito Chaudhri and David S. Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7369–7385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7369-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7369-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

EU: Directive 2006/40/EC of the European parliament and of the council of 17 May 2006 relating to emissions from air-conditioning systems in motor vehicles, Official J. EU, L161, 12–18, 2006. 
EU: Regulation (EC) No 517/2014 of the European parliament and of the council of 16 April 2014 on fluorinated greenhouse gases and repealing Regulation (EC) No 842/2006, Official J. EU, L 150, 195–230, 2014. 
Fang, X., Velders, G. J. M., Ravishankara, A. R., Molina, M. J., Hu, J., and Prinn, R. G.: Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions in China: An inventory for 2005–2013 and projections to 2050, Environ. Sci. Technol., 50, 2027–2034, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b04376, 2016. 
Flerlage, H., Velders, G. J. M., and de Boer, J.: A review of bottom-up and top-down emission estimates of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in different parts of the world, Chemosphere, 283, 131208, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2021.131208, 2021. 
Gschrey, B., Schwarz, W., Elsner, C., and Engelhardt, R.: High increase of global F-gas emissions until 2050, Greenhouse Gas Measurement & Management, 1, 85–92, https://doi.org/10.1080/20430779.2011.579352, 2011. 
Download
Short summary
The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past as a result of the phasing out of ozone-depleting substances. Observations indicate that HFCs are used much less in certain refrigeration applications than previously projected. Current policies are projected to reduce emissions and the surface temperature contribution of HFCs from 0.28–0.44 °C to 0.14–0.31 °C in 2100. The Kigali Amendment is projected to reduce the contributions further to 0.04 °C in 2100.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint