Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
10 May 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 10 May 2022

Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies

Guus J. M. Velders, John S. Daniel, Stephen A. Montzka, Isaac Vimont, Matthew Rigby, Paul B. Krummel, Jens Muhle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, and Dickon Young

Related authors

A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatimah Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-176,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-176, 2023
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Advances in air quality research – current and emerging challenges
Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Nicolas Moussiopoulos, Alexander Baklanov, John Bartzis, Isabelle Coll, Sandro Finardi, Rainer Friedrich, Camilla Geels, Tiia Grönholm, Tomas Halenka, Matthias Ketzel, Androniki Maragkidou, Volker Matthias, Jana Moldanova, Leonidas Ntziachristos, Klaus Schäfer, Peter Suppan, George Tsegas, Greg Carmichael, Vicente Franco, Steve Hanna, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Guus J. M. Velders, and Jaakko Kukkonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4615–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4615-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4615-2022, 2022
Short summary
Trifluoroacetic acid deposition from emissions of HFO-1234yf in India, China, and the Middle East
Liji M. David, Mary Barth, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pallav Purohit, Guus J. M. Velders, Sam Glaser, and A. R. Ravishankara
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14833–14849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14833-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14833-2021, 2021
Short summary
The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500
Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Matthew J. Gidden, Elisabeth Vogel, Mandy Freund, Urs Beyerle, Claudia Gessner, Alexander Nauels, Nico Bauer, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Andrew John, Paul B. Krummel, Gunnar Luderer, Nicolai Meinshausen, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Stefan Reimann, Steven J. Smith, Marten van den Berg, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, and Ray H. J. Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020
Short summary
Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)
Malte Meinshausen, Elisabeth Vogel, Alexander Nauels, Katja Lorbacher, Nicolai Meinshausen, David M. Etheridge, Paul J. Fraser, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Cathy M. Trudinger, Paul B. Krummel, Urs Beyerle, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Ian G. Enting, Rachel M. Law, Chris R. Lunder, Simon O'Doherty, Ron G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Mauro Rubino, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ray Weiss
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
The atmospheric oxidizing capacity in China – Part 1: Roles of different photochemical processes
Jianing Dai, Guy P. Brasseur, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Maria Kanakidou, Kun Qu, Yijuan Zhang, Hongliang Zhang, and Tao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14127–14158, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14127-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14127-2023, 2023
Short summary
Benefits of net-zero policies for future ozone pollution in China
Zhenze Liu, Oliver Wild, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13755–13768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13755-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Simulating impacts on UK air quality from net-zero forest planting scenarios
Gemma Purser, Mathew R. Heal, Edward J. Carnell, Stephen Bathgate, Julia Drewer, James I. L. Morison, and Massimo Vieno
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13713–13733, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13713-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13713-2023, 2023
Short summary
Understanding offshore high-ozone events during TRACER-AQ 2021 in Houston: insights from WRF–CAMx photochemical modeling
Wei Li, Yuxuan Wang, Xueying Liu, Ehsan Soleimanian, Travis Griggs, James Flynn, and Paul Walter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13685–13699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13685-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Opinion: Establishing a science-into-policy process for tropospheric ozone assessment
Richard G. Derwent, David D. Parrish, and Ian C. Faloona
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13613–13623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13613-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13613-2023, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

EU: Directive 2006/40/EC of the European parliament and of the council of 17 May 2006 relating to emissions from air-conditioning systems in motor vehicles, Official J. EU, L161, 12–18, 2006. 
EU: Regulation (EC) No 517/2014 of the European parliament and of the council of 16 April 2014 on fluorinated greenhouse gases and repealing Regulation (EC) No 842/2006, Official J. EU, L 150, 195–230, 2014. 
Fang, X., Velders, G. J. M., Ravishankara, A. R., Molina, M. J., Hu, J., and Prinn, R. G.: Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions in China: An inventory for 2005–2013 and projections to 2050, Environ. Sci. Technol., 50, 2027–2034, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b04376, 2016. 
Flerlage, H., Velders, G. J. M., and de Boer, J.: A review of bottom-up and top-down emission estimates of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in different parts of the world, Chemosphere, 283, 131208, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2021.131208, 2021. 
Gschrey, B., Schwarz, W., Elsner, C., and Engelhardt, R.: High increase of global F-gas emissions until 2050, Greenhouse Gas Measurement & Management, 1, 85–92, https://doi.org/10.1080/20430779.2011.579352, 2011. 
Download
Short summary
The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past as a result of the phasing out of ozone-depleting substances. Observations indicate that HFCs are used much less in certain refrigeration applications than previously projected. Current policies are projected to reduce emissions and the surface temperature contribution of HFCs from 0.28–0.44 °C to 0.14–0.31 °C in 2100. The Kigali Amendment is projected to reduce the contributions further to 0.04 °C in 2100.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint