Articles | Volume 17, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Jul 2017
Research article |
| 04 Jul 2017
Contribution of different processes to changes in tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in chemistry–climate models
Department of Atmospheric Sciences,
Texas A&M, College Station, Texas, USA
Andrew E. Dessler
Department of Atmospheric Sciences,
Texas A&M, College Station, Texas, USA
Slimane Bekki
LATMOS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France
Makoto Deushi
Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan
Marion Marchand
LATMOS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France
Olaf Morgenstern
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
David A. Plummer
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Canada
Kiyotaka Shibata
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Kochi University of Technology, Kami, Japan
Yousuke Yamashita
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
now at: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Guang Zeng
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
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This paper investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes. There are three major findings in this study. We quantify how unforced variability in the climate impacts can lead to large variations where heat waves occur, we find that all heat extremes increase as the climate warms, especially between 1.5 and 2.0 °C of the average global warming, and we show that the economic inequity of facing extreme heat will worsen in a warmer world.
Sarah Albertin, Joël Savarino, Slimane Bekki, Albane Barbero, and Nicolas Caillon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10477–10497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10477-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10477-2021, 2021
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We report an efficient method to collect atmospheric NO2 adapted for multi-isotopic analysis and present the first NO2 triple oxygen and double nitrogen isotope measurements. Atmospheric samplings carried out in Grenoble, France, highlight the NO2 isotopic signature sensitivity to the local NOx emissions and chemical regimes. These preliminary results are very promising for using the combination of Δ17O and δ15N of NO2 as a probe of the atmospheric NOx emissions and chemistry.
David D. Parrish, Richard G. Derwent, Steven T. Turnock, Fiona M. O'Connor, Johannes Staehelin, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Naga Oshima, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9669–9679, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9669-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9669-2021, 2021
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The few ozone measurements made before the 1980s indicate that industrial development increased ozone concentrations by a factor of ~ 2 at northern midlatitudes, which are now larger than at southern midlatitudes. This difference was much smaller, and likely reversed, in the pre-industrial atmosphere. Earth system models find similar increases, but not higher pre-industrial ozone in the south. This disagreement may indicate that modeled natural ozone sources and/or deposition loss are inadequate.
Vidya Varma, Olaf Morgenstern, Kalli Furtado, Paul Field, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-438, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We introduce a simple parametrisation whereby the immersion freezing temperature in the model is linked to the mineral dust distribution through a diagnostic function, thus invoking regional differences in the nucleation temperatures instead of the global default value of −10 °C. This provides a functionality to mimic the role of Ice Nucleating Particles in the atmosphere on influencing the short-wave radiation over the Southern Ocean region by impacting the cloud phase.
Mizuo Kajino, Makoto Deushi, Tsuyoshi Thomas Sekiyama, Naga Oshima, Keiya Yumimoto, Taichu Yasumichi Tanaka, Joseph Ching, Akihiro Hashimoto, Tetsuya Yamamoto, Masaaki Ikegami, Akane Kamada, Makoto Miyashita, Yayoi Inomata, Shin-ichiro Shima, Pradeep Khatri, Atsushi Shimizu, Hitoshi Irie, Kouji Adachi, Yuji Zaizen, Yasuhito Igarashi, Hiromasa Ueda, Takashi Maki, and Masao Mikami
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2235–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2235-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2235-2021, 2021
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This study compares performance of aerosol representation methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency's regional-scale nonhydrostatic meteorology–chemistry model (NHM-Chem). It indicates separate treatment of sea salt and dust in coarse mode and that of light-absorptive and non-absorptive particles in fine mode could provide accurate assessments on aerosol feedback processes.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Paul T. Griffiths, Lee T. Murray, Guang Zeng, Youngsub Matthew Shin, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Ian E. Galbally, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Jane Liu, Omid Moeini, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, David Tarasick, Simone Tilmes, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Paul J. Young, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4187–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, 2021
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We analyse the CMIP6 Historical and future simulations for tropospheric ozone, a species which is important for many aspects of atmospheric chemistry. We show that the current generation of models agrees well with observations, being particularly successful in capturing trends in surface ozone and its vertical distribution in the troposphere. We analyse the factors that control ozone and show that they evolve over the period of the CMIP6 experiments.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
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Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021
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This study finds how and why five state-of-the-art global climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosols differ when simulating the aftermath of large volcanic injections as part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP). We identify and explain the consequences of significant disparities in the underlying physics and chemistry currently in some of the models, which are problems likely not unique to the models participating in this study.
Patrick E. Sheese, Kaley A. Walker, Chris D. Boone, Doug A. Degenstein, Felicia Kolonjari, David Plummer, Douglas E. Kinnison, Patrick Jöckel, and Thomas von Clarmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 1425–1438, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-1425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-1425-2021, 2021
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Output from climate chemistry models (CMAM, EMAC, and WACCM) is used to estimate the expected geophysical variability of ozone concentrations between coincident satellite instrument measurement times and geolocations. We use the Canadian ACE-FTS and OSIRIS instruments as a case study. Ensemble mean estimates are used to optimize coincidence criteria between the two instruments, allowing for the use of more coincident profiles while providing an estimate of the geophysical variation.
Kevin M. Smalley and Anita D. Rapp
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2765–2779, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2765-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2765-2021, 2021
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We use satellite observations of shallow cumulus clouds to investigate the influence of cloud size on the ratio of cloud water path to rainwater (WRR) in different environments. For a fixed temperature and relative humidity, WRR increases with cloud size, but it varies little with aerosols. These results imply that increasing WRR with rising temperature relates not only to deeper clouds but also to more frequent larger clouds.
Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson, Ron Kahana, James Keeble, Byeonghyeon Kim, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Mark Richardson, Eddy Robertson, Jeongbyn Seo, Sungbo Shim, João C. Teixeira, Steven T. Turnock, Jonny Williams, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Stephanie Woodward, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1211–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, 2021
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This paper calculates how changes in emissions and/or concentrations of different atmospheric constituents since the pre-industrial era have altered the Earth's energy budget at the present day using a metric called effective radiative forcing. The impact of land use change is also assessed. We find that individual contributions do not add linearly, and different Earth system interactions can affect the magnitude of the calculated effective radiative forcing.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
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This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Ales Kuchar, William Ball, Pavle Arsenovic, Ellis Remsberg, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kunze, David A. Plummer, Andrea Stenke, Daniel Marsh, Doug Kinnison, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, 2021
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The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model simulations and satellite observations using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. MLR analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust solar signal in both H2O and CO. The model results show a general agreement with observations reproducing a negative/positive solar signal in H2O/CO. The pattern of the solar signal varies among the considered models, reflecting some differences in the model setup.
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Richard Querel, Israel Silber, and Connor J. Flynn
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 43–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-43-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-43-2021, 2021
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
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A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
Xun Wang and Andrew E. Dessler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13267–13282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13267-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13267-2020, 2020
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We investigate the response of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) to different forcing agents, including greenhouse gases and aerosols. For most forcing agents, the SWV response is dominated by a slow response, which is coupled to surface temperature changes and exhibits a similar sensitivity to the surface temperature across all forcing agents. The fast SWV adjustment due to forcing is important when the forcing agent directly heats the cold-point region, e.g., black carbon.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13011–13022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, 2020
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Decadal trends and variations in OH are critical for understanding atmospheric CH4 evolution. We quantify the impacts of OH trends and variations on the CH4 budget by conducting CH4 inversions on a decadal scale with an ensemble of OH fields. We find the negative OH anomalies due to enhanced fires can reduce the optimized CH4 emissions by up to 10 Tg yr−1 during El Niño years and the positive OH trend from 1986 to 2010 results in a ∼ 23 Tg yr−1 additional increase in optimized CH4 emissions.
David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Simone Tilmes, Guang Zeng, Lee T. Murray, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Sungbo Shim, Larry W. Horowitz, Lori T. Sentman, and Louisa Emmons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12905–12920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, 2020
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We present historical trends in atmospheric oxidizing capacity (OC) since 1850 from the latest generation of global climate models and compare these with estimates from measurements. OC controls levels of many key reactive gases, including methane (CH4). We find small model trends up to 1980, then increases of about 9 % up to 2014, disagreeing with (uncertain) measurement-based trends. Major drivers of OC trends are emissions of CH4, NOx, and CO; these will be important for future CH4 trends.
Wandi Yu, Andrew E. Dessler, Mijeong Park, and Eric J. Jensen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12153–12161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12153-2020, 2020
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The stratospheric water vapor mixing ratio over North America (NA) region is up to ~ 1 ppmv higher when deep convection occurs. We find substantial consistency in the interannual variations of NA water vapor anomaly and deep convection and explain both the summer seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the convective moistening efficiency. We show that the NA anticyclone and tropical upper tropospheric temperature determine how much deep convection moistens the lower stratosphere.
Matt Amos, Paul J. Young, J. Scott Hosking, Jean-François Lamarque, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, David A. Plummer, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9961–9977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, 2020
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We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models. To do so, we employ a method, more advanced and skilful than the current multi-model mean standard, which is applicable to other ensemble analyses. It calculates the performance and similarity of the models, which we then use to weight the model. Calculating model similarity allows us to account for models which are constructed from similar components.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Prodromos Zanis, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Robert J. Allen, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Jason Cole, Ben Johnson, Makoto Deushi, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Adriana Sima, Michael Schulz, Toshihiko Takemura, and Konstantinos Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8381–8404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, 2020
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In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014.
Vidya Varma, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Field, Kalli Furtado, Jonny Williams, and Patrick Hyder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7741–7751, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7741-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7741-2020, 2020
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The present generation of global climate models has an insufficiently reflected short-wave radiation, especially over the Southern Ocean. This leads to an excessive heating of the ocean surface in the model, creating sea surface temperature biases and subsequent problems with atmospheric dynamics. Misrepresentation of clouds could be attributed to this radiation bias; we try to address this issue by slowing the growth rate of ice crystals and improving the supercooled liquid clouds in the model.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Vincenzo Rizi, Marco Iarlori, Irene Cionni, Ilaria Quaglia, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando Garcia, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-François Lamarque, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Tatsuya Nagashima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David Plummer, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, 2020
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In this work we analyse the trend in ozone profiles taken at L'Aquila (Italy, 42.4° N) for seventeen years, between 2000 and 2016 and compare them against already available measured ozone trends. We try to understand and explain the observed trends at various heights in light of the simulations from seventeen different model, highlighting the contribution of changes in circulation and chemical ozone loss during this time period.
Marta Abalos, Clara Orbe, Douglas E. Kinnison, David Plummer, Luke D. Oman, Patrick Jöckel, Olaf Morgenstern, Rolando R. Garcia, Guang Zeng, Kane A. Stone, and Martin Dameris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6883–6901, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, 2020
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A set of state-of-the art chemistry–climate models is used to examine future changes in downward transport from the stratosphere, a key contributor to tropospheric ozone. The acceleration of the stratospheric circulation results in increased stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. In the subtropics, downward advection into the troposphere is enhanced due to climate change. At higher latitudes, the ozone reservoir above the tropopause is enlarged due to the stronger circulation and ozone recovery.
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Simon P. Alexander, John J. Cassano, Sally Garrett, Jamie Halla, Sean Hartery, Mike J. Harvey, Simon Parsons, Graeme Plank, Vidya Varma, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6607–6630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, 2020
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We evaluate clouds over the Southern Ocean in the climate model HadGEM3 and reanalysis MERRA-2 using ship-based ceilometer and radiosonde observations. We find the models underestimate cloud cover by 18–25 %, with clouds below 2 km dominant in reality but lacking in the models. We find a strong link between clouds, atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature in observations but not in the models, implying that sub-grid processes do not generate enough cloud in response to these conditions.
Clara Orbe, David A. Plummer, Darryn W. Waugh, Huang Yang, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas E. Kinnison, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Makoto Deushi, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Wuhu Feng, and Slimane Bekki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3809–3840, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3809-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3809-2020, 2020
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Atmospheric composition is strongly influenced by global-scale winds that are not always properly simulated in computer models. A common approach to correct for this bias is to relax or
nudgeto the observed winds. Here we systematically evaluate how well this technique performs across a large suite of chemistry–climate models in terms of its ability to reproduce key aspects of both the tropospheric and stratospheric circulations.
Alexander T. Archibald, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Fraser Dennison, Sandip S. Dhomse, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Alan J. Hewitt, Richard S. Hill, Colin E. Johnson, James Keeble, Marcus O. Köhler, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Carlos Ordóñez, Richard J. Pope, Steven T. Rumbold, Maria R. Russo, Nicholas H. Savage, Alistair Sellar, Marc Stringer, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1223–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, 2020
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Here we present a description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). UKCA StratTrop represents a substantial step forward compared to previous versions of UKCA. We show here that it is fully suited to the challenges of representing interactions in a coupled Earth system model and identify key areas and components for future development that will make it even better in the future.
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
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Differences in methane lifetime among global models are large and poorly understood. We use a neural network method and simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative to quantify the factors influencing methane lifetime spread among models and variations over time. UV photolysis, tropospheric ozone, and nitrogen oxides drive large model differences, while the same factors plus specific humidity contribute to a decreasing trend in methane lifetime between 1980 and 2015.
Le Kuai, Kevin W. Bowman, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Makoto Deushi, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Fabien Paulot, Sarah Strode, Andrew Conley, Jean-François Lamarque, Patrick Jöckel, David A. Plummer, Luke D. Oman, Helen Worden, Susan Kulawik, David Paynter, Andrea Stenke, and Markus Kunze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 281–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-281-2020, 2020
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The tropospheric ozone increase from pre-industrial to the present day leads to a radiative forcing. The top-of-atmosphere outgoing fluxes at the ozone band are controlled by ozone, water vapor, and temperature. We demonstrate a method to attribute the models’ flux biases to these key players using satellite-constrained instantaneous radiative kernels. The largest spread between models is found in the tropics, mainly driven by ozone and then water vapor.
Laura E. Revell, Stefanie Kremser, Sean Hartery, Mike Harvey, Jane P. Mulcahy, Jonny Williams, Olaf Morgenstern, Adrian J. McDonald, Vidya Varma, Leroy Bird, and Alex Schuddeboom
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15447–15466, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15447-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15447-2019, 2019
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Aerosols over the Southern Ocean consist primarily of sea salt and sulfate, yet are seasonally biased in our model. We test three sulfate chemistry schemes to investigate DMS oxidation, which forms sulfate aerosol. Simulated cloud droplet number concentrations improve using more complex sulfate chemistry. We also show that a new sea spray aerosol source function, developed from measurements made on a recent Southern Ocean research voyage, improves the model's simulation of aerosol optical depth.
Xun Wang, Andrew E. Dessler, Mark R. Schoeberl, Wandi Yu, and Tao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14621–14636, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14621-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14621-2019, 2019
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We use a trajectory model to diagnose mechanisms that produce the observed and modeled tropical lower stratospheric water vapor seasonal cycle. We confirm that the seasonal cycle of water vapor is primarily determined by the seasonal cycle of tropical tropopause layer (TTL) temperatures. However, between 10° N and 40° N, we find that evaporation of convective ice in the TTL plays a key role contributing to the water vapor seasonal cycle there. The Asian monsoon region is the most important region.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Sophie Szopa, Ann R. Stavert, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Virginie Marécal, Fiona M. O'Connor, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13701–13723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, 2019
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The role of hydroxyl radical changes in methane trends is debated, hindering our understanding of the methane cycle. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical may influence methane abundance in the atmosphere based on the inter-model comparison of hydroxyl radical fields and model simulations of CH4 abundance with different hydroxyl radical scenarios during 2000–2016. We show that hydroxyl radical changes could contribute up to 54 % of model-simulated methane biases.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Hella Garny, Douglas Kinnison, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Makoto Deushi, Rolando R. Garcia, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11559–11586, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, 2019
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We perform the first multi-model comparison of the impact of nudged meteorology on the stratospheric residual circulation (RC) in chemistry–climate models. Nudging meteorology does not constrain the mean strength of RC compared to free-running simulations, and despite the lack of agreement in the mean circulation, nudging tightly constrains the inter-annual variability in the tropical upward mass flux in the lower stratosphere. In summary, nudging strongly affects the representation of RC.
Kévin Lamy, Thierry Portafaix, Béatrice Josse, Colette Brogniez, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Hassan Bencherif, Laura Revell, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Ben Liley, Virginie Marecal, Olaf Morgenstern, Andrea Stenke, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Neil Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Glauco Di Genova, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rong-Ming Hu, Douglas Kinnison, Michael Kotkamp, Richard McKenzie, Martine Michou, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10087–10110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, 2019
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In this study, we simulate the ultraviolet radiation evolution during the 21st century on Earth's surface using the output from several numerical models which participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. We present four possible futures which depend on greenhouse gases emissions. The role of ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases and aerosols are investigated. Our results emphasize the important role of aerosols for future ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Froila M. Palmeiro, David Barriopedro, Natalia Calvo, Ulrike Langematz, and Kiyotaka Shibata
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9469–9484, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9469-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9469-2019, 2019
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Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are abrupt rises in the wintertime polar stratosphere that also affect the troposphere. Their study is hampered by the limited observations in the stratosphere and mostly relies on reanalyses, i.e., models that include observations. Here we compare the representation of SSWs by the most used reanalyses. SSW results are consistent across reanalyses but some differences are found, in particular before the satellite era.
Ohad Harari, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9253–9268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, 2019
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Ozone depletion in the Antarctic has been shown to influence surface conditions, but the effects of ozone depletion in the Arctic on surface climate are unclear. We show that Arctic ozone does influence surface climate in both polar regions and tropical regions, though the proximate cause of these surface impacts is not yet clear.
Sophie Szopa, Rémi Thiéblemont, Slimane Bekki, Svetlana Botsyun, and Pierre Sepulchre
Clim. Past, 15, 1187–1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1187-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1187-2019, 2019
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The stratospheric ozone layer plays a key role in atmospheric thermal structure and circulation. Here, with a chemistry–climate model, we evaluate the potential role of stratospheric ozone chemistry in the case of Eocene hot conditions. Our results suggest that using stratospheric ozone calculated by the modeled Eocene conditions instead of the commonly specified preindustrial ozone distribution could change the simulated global surface air temperature by as much as 14 %.
Petr Šácha, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Petr Pišoft, Simone Dietmüller, Laura de la Torre, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Neal Butchart, and Juan A. Añel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7627–7647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7627-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7627-2019, 2019
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Climate models robustly project a Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) acceleration in the course of climate change. Analyzing mean age of stratospheric air (AoA) from a subset of climate projection simulations, we find a remarkable agreement in simulating the largest AoA trends in the extratropical stratosphere. This is shown to be related with the upward shift of the circulation, resulting in a so-called stratospheric shrinkage, which could be one of the so-far-omitted BDC acceleration drivers.
Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Susan E. Strahan, Kane A. Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5511–5528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019, 2019
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We evaluate the performance of a suite of models in simulating the large-scale transport from the northern midlatitudes to the Arctic using a CO-like idealized tracer. We find a large multi-model spread of the Arctic concentration of this CO-like tracer that is well correlated with the differences in the location of the midlatitude jet as well as the northern Hadley Cell edge. Our results suggest the Hadley Cell is key and zonal-mean transport by surface meridional flow needs better constraint.
Fraser Dennison, James Keeble, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, and Xin Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1227–1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1227-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1227-2019, 2019
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Two developments are made to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) model to improve simulation of stratospheric ozone. The first is the addition of a solar cycle. The influence on ozone from the solar cycle is found to be 1–2 %, which is consistent with other studies. The second is to the heterogeneous chemistry, the most significant change being the addition of reactions involving bromine species. This was shown to reduce ozone biases relative to observations in most regions.
Ryan S. Williams, Michaela I. Hegglin, Brian J. Kerridge, Patrick Jöckel, Barry G. Latter, and David A. Plummer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3589–3620, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3589-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3589-2019, 2019
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Tropospheric ozone has important implications for air quality and climate change but is poorly understood at a regional and seasonal level. Analysis of model simulations indicates that downward transport of ozone from the stratosphere has a larger influence than previously thought (as much as ~50 % even near the surface). Recent estimated changes in tropospheric ozone (1980–89 to 2001–10) are generally positive, with substantial attribution from the stratosphere identified over some regions.
Kai-Lan Chang, Owen R. Cooper, J. Jason West, Marc L. Serre, Martin G. Schultz, Meiyun Lin, Virginie Marécal, Béatrice Josse, Makoto Deushi, Kengo Sudo, Junhua Liu, and Christoph A. Keller
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 955–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-955-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-955-2019, 2019
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We developed a new method for combining surface ozone observations from thousands of monitoring sites worldwide with the output from multiple atmospheric chemistry models. The result is a global surface ozone distribution with greater accuracy than any single model can achieve. We focused on an ozone metric relevant to human mortality caused by long-term ozone exposure. Our method can be applied to studies that quantify the impacts of ozone on human health and mortality.
Miko U. F. Kirschbaum, Guang Zeng, Fabiano Ximenes, Donna L. Giltrap, and John R. Zeldis
Biogeosciences, 16, 831–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-831-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-831-2019, 2019
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Globally, C is added to the atmosphere from fossil fuels and deforestation, balanced by ocean uptake and atmospheric increase. The difference (residual sink) is equated to plant uptake. But this omits cement carbonation; transport to oceans by dust; riverine organic C and volatile organics; and increased C in plastic, bitumen, wood, landfills, and lakes. Their inclusion reduces the residual sink from 3.6 to 2.1 GtC yr-1 and thus the inferred ability of the biosphere to alter human C emissions.
Roland Eichinger, Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Petr Šácha, Thomas Birner, Harald Bönisch, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Eugene Rozanov, Laura Revell, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 921–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, 2019
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To shed more light upon the changes in stratospheric circulation in the 21st century, climate projection simulations of 10 state-of-the-art global climate models, spanning from 1960 to 2100, are analyzed. The study shows that in addition to changes in transport, mixing also plays an important role in stratospheric circulation and that the properties of mixing vary over time. Furthermore, the influence of mixing is quantified and a dynamical framework is provided to understand the changes.
Tommaso Galeazzo, Slimane Bekki, Erwan Martin, Joël Savarino, and Stephen R. Arnold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17909–17931, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17909-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17909-2018, 2018
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Volcanic sulfur can have climatic impacts for the planet via sulfate aerosol formation, leading also to pollution events. We provide model constraints on tropospheric volcanic sulfate formation, with implications for its lifetime and impacts on regional air quality. Oxygen isotope investigations from our model suggest that in the poor tropospheric plumes of halogens, the O2/TMI sulfur oxidation pathway might significantly control sulfate production. The produced sulfate has no isotopic anomaly.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Fiona Tummon, Aryeh Feinberg, Eugene Rozanov, Thomas Peter, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Robyn Schofield, Kane Stone, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16155–16172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, 2018
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Global models such as those participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) consistently simulate biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We performed an advanced statistical analysis with one of the CCMI models to understand the cause of the bias. We found that emissions of ozone precursor gases are the dominant driver of the bias, implying either that the emissions are too large, or that the way in which the model handles emissions needs to be improved.
Arlene M. Fiore, Emily V. Fischer, George P. Milly, Shubha Pandey Deolal, Oliver Wild, Daniel A. Jaffe, Johannes Staehelin, Olivia E. Clifton, Dan Bergmann, William Collins, Frank Dentener, Ruth M. Doherty, Bryan N. Duncan, Bernd Fischer, Stefan Gilge, Peter G. Hess, Larry W. Horowitz, Alexandru Lupu, Ian A. MacKenzie, Rokjin Park, Ludwig Ries, Michael G. Sanderson, Martin G. Schultz, Drew T. Shindell, Martin Steinbacher, David S. Stevenson, Sophie Szopa, Christoph Zellweger, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15345–15361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, 2018
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We demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach for applying northern midlatitude mountaintop peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN) measurements and a multi-model ensemble during April to constrain the influence of continental-scale anthropogenic precursor emissions on PAN. Our findings imply a role for carefully coordinated multi-model ensembles in helping identify observations for discriminating among widely varying (and poorly constrained) model responses of atmospheric constituents to changes in emissions.
Pakawat Phalitnonkiat, Peter G. M. Hess, Mircea D. Grigoriu, Gennady Samorodnitsky, Wenxiu Sun, Ellie Beaudry, Simone Tilmes, Makato Deushi, Beatrice Josse, David Plummer, and Kengo Sudo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11927–11948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11927-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11927-2018, 2018
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The co-occurrence of heat waves and pollution events and the resulting high mortality rates emphasize the importance of the co-occurrence of pollution and temperature extremes. We analyze ozone and temperature extremes and their joint occurrence over the United States during the summer months (JJA) in measurement data and in model simulations of the present and future climates.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Hauke Schmidt, Rémi Thiéblemont, Lon Hood, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, Daniel R. Marsh, Martine Michou, David Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Yousuke Yamashita, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11323–11343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, 2018
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The 11-year solar cycle is an important driver of climate variability. Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation affect atmospheric ozone, which in turn influences atmospheric temperatures. Constraining the impact of the solar cycle on ozone is therefore important for understanding climate variability. This study examines the representation of the solar influence on ozone in numerical models used to simulate past and future climate. We highlight important differences among model datasets.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Ulrike Langematz, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Steven C. Hardiman, Patrick Jöckel, Andrew Klekociuk, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018
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Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
Vivek K. Arora, Joe R. Melton, and David Plummer
Biogeosciences, 15, 4683–4709, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4683-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4683-2018, 2018
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Earth system models (ESMs) project future changes in climate in response to changes in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, before this can be achieved the natural fluxes of a given GHG must also be modelled. This paper evaluates the natural methane fluxes simulated by the CLASS-CTEM model (which is the land component of the Canadian ESM) against observations to show that the simulated methane emissions from wetlands and fires, and soil uptake of methane are realistic.
Mizuo Kajino, Makoto Deushi, Tsuyoshi Thomas Sekiyama, Naga Oshima, Keiya Yumimoto, Taichu Yasumichi Tanaka, Joseph Ching, Akihiro Hashimoto, Tetsuya Yamamoto, Masaaki Ikegami, Akane Kamada, Makoto Miyashita, Yayoi Inomata, Shin-ichiro Shima, Kouji Adachi, Yuji Zaizen, Yasuhito Igarashi, Hiromasa Ueda, Takashi Maki, and Masao Mikami
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-128, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
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We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
Stefan Lossow, Dale F. Hurst, Karen H. Rosenlof, Gabriele P. Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Sabine Brinkop, Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, Doug E. Kinnison, Johannes Plieninger, David A. Plummer, Felix Ploeger, William G. Read, Ellis E. Remsberg, James M. Russell, and Mengchu Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8331–8351, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8331-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8331-2018, 2018
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Trend estimates of lower stratospheric H2O derived from the FPH observations at Boulder and a merged zonal mean satellite data set clearly differ for the time period from the late 1980s to 2010. We investigate if a sampling bias between Boulder and the zonal mean around the Boulder latitude can explain these trend discrepancies. Typically they are small and not sufficient to explain the trend discrepancies in the observational database.
Clara Orbe, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, John F. Scinocca, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Patrick Jöckel, Luke D. Oman, Susan E. Strahan, Makoto Deushi, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Kohei Yoshida, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Andreas Stenke, Laura Revell, Timofei Sukhodolov, Eugene Rozanov, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7217–7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, 2018
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In this study we compare a few atmospheric transport properties among several numerical models that are used to study the influence of atmospheric chemistry on climate. We show that there are large differences among models in terms of the timescales that connect the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, where greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances are emitted, to the Southern Hemisphere. Our results may have important implications for how models represent atmospheric composition.
Dunya Alraddawi, Alain Sarkissian, Philippe Keckhut, Olivier Bock, Stefan Noël, Slimane Bekki, Abdenour Irbah, Mustapha Meftah, and Chantal Claud
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2949–2965, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2949-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2949-2018, 2018
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The current study provides intercomparisons of various water vapour measurements in the Arctic. It compares ground-based GPS observations with satellite measurements in the infrared (IR), near-infrared (NIR) and visible (VIS) through a specific method allowing us to quantify their uncertainties and limits.
Unlike IR, satellite observations in NIR and VIS bands are mostly sensible to cloud cover during summer and to albedo variability over canopy or polluted snow-covered surfaces in winter.
Felicia Kolonjari, David A. Plummer, Kaley A. Walker, Chris D. Boone, James W. Elkins, Michaela I. Hegglin, Gloria L. Manney, Fred L. Moore, Diane Pendlebury, Eric A. Ray, Karen H. Rosenlof, and Gabriele P. Stiller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6801–6828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6801-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6801-2018, 2018
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We used satellite observations and model simulations of CFC-11, CFC-12, and N2O to investigate stratospheric transport, which is important for predicting the recovery of the ozone layer and future climate. We found that sampling can impact results and that the model consistently overestimates concentrations of these gases in the lower stratosphere, consistent with a too rapid Brewer–Dobson circulation. An issue with mixing in the tropical lower stratosphere in June–July–August was also found.
Simone Dietmüller, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Birner, Harald Boenisch, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Shibata Kiyotaka, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, 2018
Andrew E. Dessler, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5147–5155, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018, 2018
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One of the most important parameters in climate science is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Estimates of this quantity based on 20th-century observations suggest low values of ECS (below 2 °C). We show that these calculations may be significantly in error. Together with other recent work on this problem, it seems probable that the ECS is larger than suggested by the 20th-century observations.
Hao Ye, Andrew E. Dessler, and Wandi Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4425–4437, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4425-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4425-2018, 2018
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The deep convection in tropics can inject cloud ice into tropical tropopause layer (TTL), which moistens and increases water vapor there. We primarily study the spatial distribution of impacts from several physical processes on TTL water vapor from observations and trajectory model simulations. The analysis shows the potential moistening impact from evaporation of cloud ice on TTL water vapor. A chemistry–climate model is used to confirm the impact from evaporation of convective ice.
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
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We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
Olaf Morgenstern, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando R. Garcia, Kengo Sudo, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Luke D. Oman, Michael E. Manyin, Guang Zeng, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Laura E. Revell, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Glauco Di Genova, Daniele Visioni, Sandip S. Dhomse, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1091–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, 2018
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We assess how ozone as simulated by a group of chemistry–climate models responds to variations in man-made climate gases and ozone-depleting substances. We find some agreement, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere, but also considerable disagreement elsewhere. Such disagreement affects the reliability of future ozone projections based on these models, and also constitutes a source of uncertainty in climate projections using prescribed ozone derived from these simulations.
Ruth M. Doherty, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, David A. Plummer, Michael J. Prather, Oliver Wild, Meiyun Lin, Drew T. Shindell, and Ian A. Mackenzie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14219–14237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, 2017
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We investigate how climate change impacts global air pollution transport. To study transport changes, we use a carbon monoxide (CO) tracer species emitted from global sources. We find robust and consistent changes in CO-tracer distributions in climate change simulations performed by four chemistry–climate models in different seasons. We highlight the importance of the co-location of emission source regions and controlling transport processes in determining future pollution transport.
Fraser Dennison, Adrian McDonald, and Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14075–14084, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14075-2017, 2017
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The Antarctic ozone is not centred directly over the pole. In this research we examine how the position and shape of the ozone hole changes using a chemistry–climate model. As ozone becomes increasingly depleted during the late 20th century the centre of the ozone hole moves toward the west and becomes more circular. As the ozone hole recovers over the course of the 21st century the ozone hole moves back towards the east.
Christoph Kleinschmitt, Olivier Boucher, Slimane Bekki, François Lott, and Ulrich Platt
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3359–3378, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3359-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3359-2017, 2017
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Stratospheric aerosols play an important role in the climate system by affecting the Earth's radiative budget. In this article we present the newly developed LMDZ-S3A model and assess its performance against observations in periods of low and high aerosol loading. The model may serve as a tool to study the climate impacts of volcanic eruptions, as well as the deliberate injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, which has been proposed as a method of geoengineering to abate global warming.
Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Hisako Shiona, Alan J. Thomas, Richard R. Querel, and Sylvia E. Nichol
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10495–10513, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10495-2017, 2017
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The long-term ozonesonde record from Lauder, New Zealand, which covers 1987 to 2014, shows a significant positive trend in lower tropospheric ozone, and a significant negative trend in the tropopause region. We conduct a statistical and chemistry–climate model analysis to identify the causes of these trends. We attribute these trends to anthropogenic influences and large-scale dynamical effects such as increasing tropopause height and an increase in stratosphere–troposphere exchange.
Rémi Thiéblemont, Marion Marchand, Slimane Bekki, Sébastien Bossay, Franck Lefèvre, Mustapha Meftah, and Alain Hauchecorne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9897–9916, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9897-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9897-2017, 2017
Guanyu Huang, Xiong Liu, Kelly Chance, Kai Yang, Pawan K. Bhartia, Zhaonan Cai, Marc Allaart, Gérard Ancellet, Bertrand Calpini, Gerrie J. R. Coetzee, Emilio Cuevas-Agulló, Manuel Cupeiro, Hugo De Backer, Manvendra K. Dubey, Henry E. Fuelberg, Masatomo Fujiwara, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Tristan J. Hall, Bryan Johnson, Everette Joseph, Rigel Kivi, Bogumil Kois, Ninong Komala, Gert König-Langlo, Giovanni Laneve, Thierry Leblanc, Marion Marchand, Kenneth R. Minschwaner, Gary Morris, Michael J. Newchurch, Shin-Ya Ogino, Nozomu Ohkawara, Ankie J. M. Piters, Françoise Posny, Richard Querel, Rinus Scheele, Frank J. Schmidlin, Russell C. Schnell, Otto Schrems, Henry Selkirk, Masato Shiotani, Pavla Skrivánková, René Stübi, Ghassan Taha, David W. Tarasick, Anne M. Thompson, Valérie Thouret, Matthew B. Tully, Roeland Van Malderen, Holger Vömel, Peter von der Gathen, Jacquelyn C. Witte, and Margarita Yela
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2455–2475, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2455-2017, 2017
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It is essential to understand the data quality of +10-year OMI ozone product and impacts of the “row anomaly” (RA). We validate the OMI Ozone Profile (PROFOZ) product from Oct 2004 to Dec 2014 against ozonesonde observations globally. Generally, OMI has good agreement with ozonesondes. The spatiotemporal variation of retrieval performance suggests the need to improve OMI’s radiometric calibration especially during the post-RA period to maintain the long-term stability.
Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I. Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando R. Garcia, Steven C. Hardiman, Larry W. Horowitz, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Michael E. Manyin, Marion Marchand, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, 2017
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We present a review of the make-up of 20 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). In comparison to earlier such activities, most of these models comprise a whole-atmosphere chemistry, and several of them include an interactive ocean module. This makes them suitable for studying the interactions of tropospheric air quality, stratospheric ozone, and climate. The paper lays the foundation for other studies using the CCMI simulations for scientific analysis.
Osamu Uchino, Tetsu Sakai, Toshiharu Izumi, Tomohiro Nagai, Isamu Morino, Akihiro Yamazaki, Makoto Deushi, Keiya Yumimoto, Takashi Maki, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Taiga Akaho, Hiroshi Okumura, Kohei Arai, Takahiro Nakatsuru, Tsuneo Matsunaga, and Tatsuya Yokota
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1865–1879, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1865-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1865-2017, 2017
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To validate products of GOSAT, we observed vertical profiles of aerosols, thin cirrus clouds, and tropospheric ozone with a mobile lidar system that consisted of a two-wavelength (532 and 1064 nm) polarization lidar and tropospheric ozone differential absorption lidar (DIAL). We used these lidars to make continuous measurements over Saga (33.24° N, 130.29° E) during 20–31 March 2015. High ozone and high aerosol concentrations were observed almost simultaneously and impacted surface air quality.
Laura López-Comí, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Sarah L. Masters, Richard R. Querel, and Gerald E. Nedoluha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14599–14619, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14599-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14599-2016, 2016
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The hydroxyl radical (OH) is known for removing various pollutants from the atmosphere. Chemistry–climate models disagree on how much OH is found in the atmosphere. Here we use a single column model, set up for Lauder (New Zealand), to assess how OH responds to correcting model biases in long-lived constituents and temperature. We find some considerable sensitivity to correcting water vapour and ozone, with lesser contributions due to correcting methane, carbon monoxide, and temperature.
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
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Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
Raquel A. Silva, J. Jason West, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, William J. Collins, Stig Dalsoren, Greg Faluvegi, Gerd Folberth, Larry W. Horowitz, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naik, Steven T. Rumbold, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, Daniel Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, Irene Cionni, Ruth M. Doherty, Veronika Eyring, Beatrice Josse, Ian A. MacKenzie, David Plummer, Mattia Righi, David S. Stevenson, Sarah Strode, Sophie Szopa, and Guang Zengast
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9847–9862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, 2016
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Using ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models for the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, we quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution in 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to 2000 concentrations. We also estimate the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period.
Daan Hubert, Jean-Christopher Lambert, Tijl Verhoelst, José Granville, Arno Keppens, Jean-Luc Baray, Adam E. Bourassa, Ugo Cortesi, Doug A. Degenstein, Lucien Froidevaux, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Karl W. Hoppel, Bryan J. Johnson, Erkki Kyrölä, Thierry Leblanc, Günter Lichtenberg, Marion Marchand, C. Thomas McElroy, Donal Murtagh, Hideaki Nakane, Thierry Portafaix, Richard Querel, James M. Russell III, Jacobo Salvador, Herman G. J. Smit, Kerstin Stebel, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Kevin B. Strawbridge, René Stübi, Daan P. J. Swart, Ghassan Taha, David W. Tarasick, Anne M. Thompson, Joachim Urban, Joanna A. E. van Gijsel, Roeland Van Malderen, Peter von der Gathen, Kaley A. Walker, Elian Wolfram, and Joseph M. Zawodny
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 2497–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-2497-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-2497-2016, 2016
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A more detailed understanding of satellite O3 profile data records is vital for further progress in O3 research. To this end, we made a comprehensive assessment of 14 limb/occultation profilers using ground-based reference data. The mutual consistency of satellite O3 in terms of bias, short-term variability and decadal stability is generally good over most of the stratosphere. However, we identified some exceptions that impact the quality of recently merged data sets and ozone trend assessments.
Christopher E. Sioris, Jason Zou, David A. Plummer, Chris D. Boone, C. Thomas McElroy, Patrick E. Sheese, Omid Moeini, and Peter F. Bernath
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3265–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3265-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3265-2016, 2016
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The AM (annular mode) is the most important internal mode of climatic variability at high latitudes. Upper tropospheric water vapour (UTWV) at high latitudes increases by up to ~ 50 % during the negative phase of the AMs. The response of water vapour to the AMs vanishes above the tropopause. The ultimate goal of the study was to improve UTWV trend uncertainties by explaining shorter-term variability, and this was achieved by accounting for the AM-related response in a multiple linear regression.
Kane A. Stone, Olaf Morgenstern, David J. Karoly, Andrew R. Klekociuk, W. John French, N. Luke Abraham, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2401–2415, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2401-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2401-2016, 2016
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This paper describes the set-up and evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator – chemistry-climate model.
Emphasis is placed on the Antarctic ozone hole, which is very important considering its role modulating Southern Hemisphere surface climate. While the model simulates the global distribution of ozone well, there is a disparity in the vertical location of springtime ozone depletion over Antarctica, highlighting important areas for future development.
Emphasis is placed on the Antarctic ozone hole, which is very important considering its role modulating Southern Hemisphere surface climate. While the model simulates the global distribution of ozone well, there is a disparity in the vertical location of springtime ozone depletion over Antarctica, highlighting important areas for future development.
D. Pendlebury, D. Plummer, J. Scinocca, P. Sheese, K. Strong, K. Walker, and D. Degenstein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12465–12485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12465-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12465-2015, 2015
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The CMAM30 data set takes a chemistry-climate model and relaxes the dynamics to reanalysis, which can then provide chemistry fields not available from the reanalysis data set. This paper addresses this gap by comparing temperature, water vapour, ozone and methane to satellite data to determine and document any biases in the model fields. The lack of ozone destruction and dehydration in the SH polar vortex is shown to be due to the treatment of polar stratosphere clouds in the model.
J. L. Schnell, M. J. Prather, B. Josse, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, P. Cameron-Smith, D. Bergmann, G. Zeng, D. A. Plummer, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, D. T. Shindell, G. Faluvegi, and S. A. Strode
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10581–10596, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, 2015
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We test global chemistry--climate models in their ability to simulate present-day surface ozone. Models are tested against observed hourly ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1°x1° grid cells. Using novel metrics, we find most models match the shape but not the amplitude of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles and match the pattern but not the magnitude of summer ozone enhancement. Most also match the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes
G. Zeng, J. E. Williams, J. A. Fisher, L. K. Emmons, N. B. Jones, O. Morgenstern, J. Robinson, D. Smale, C. Paton-Walsh, and D. W. T. Griffith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7217–7245, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7217-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7217-2015, 2015
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We assess the impact of biogenic emissions on CO and HCHO in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), with simulations using different emission inventories. Differences in biogenic emissions result in large differences on modelled CO in the source and the remote regions. Substantial inter-model differences exist. Models significantly underestimate observed HCHO columns in the SH, suggesting missing sources in the models. Differences in the CO/OH/CH4 chemistry lead to differences in HCHO in remote regions.
T. Wang, A. E. Dessler, M. R. Schoeberl, W. J. Randel, and J.-E. Kim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3517–3526, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3517-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3517-2015, 2015
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We investigated the impacts of vertical temperature structures on trajectory simulations of stratospheric dehydration and water vapor by using 1) MERRA temperatures on model levels; 2) GPS temperatures at finer vertical resolutions; and 3) adjusted MERRA temperatures with finer vertical structures induced by waves. We show that despite the fact that temperatures at finer vertical structures tend to dry air by 0.1-0.3ppmv, the interannual variability in different runs is essentially the same.
J. A. Fisher, S. R. Wilson, G. Zeng, J. E. Williams, L. K. Emmons, R. L. Langenfelds, P. B. Krummel, and L. P. Steele
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3217–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3217-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3217-2015, 2015
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The Southern Hemisphere (SH) serves as an important test bed for evaluating our understanding of the processes that drive the composition of the clean background atmosphere. Using data from two aircraft campaigns, combined with four atmospheric chemistry models, we find a large sensitivity in the remote SH to biogenic emissions and their subsequent chemistry and transport. Future model evaluation and measurement campaigns should prioritize reducing uncertainties in these processes.
S. S. Dhomse, K. M. Emmerson, G. W. Mann, N. Bellouin, K. S. Carslaw, M. P. Chipperfield, R. Hommel, N. L. Abraham, P. Telford, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, C. E. Johnson, F. O'Connor, O. Morgenstern, J. A. Pyle, T. Deshler, J. M. Zawodny, and L. W. Thomason
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11221–11246, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, 2014
T. Wang, W. J. Randel, A. E. Dessler, M. R. Schoeberl, and D. E. Kinnison
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7135–7147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7135-2014, 2014
O. Uchino, T. Sakai, T. Nagai, I. Morino, T. Maki, M. Deushi, K. Shibata, M. Kajino, T. Kawasaki, T. Akaho, S. Takubo, H. Okumura, K. Arai, M. Nakazato, T. Matsunaga, T. Yokota, S. Kawakami, K. Kita, and Y. Sasano
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 1385–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1385-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1385-2014, 2014
C. McLandress, D. A. Plummer, and T. G. Shepherd
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1547–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1547-2014, 2014
F. M. O'Connor, C. E. Johnson, O. Morgenstern, N. L. Abraham, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, G. A. Folberth, M. G. Sanderson, P. J. Telford, A. Voulgarakis, P. J. Young, G. Zeng, W. J. Collins, and J. A. Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 41–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, 2014
J.-F. Lamarque, F. Dentener, J. McConnell, C.-U. Ro, M. Shaw, R. Vet, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, S. Dalsoren, R. Doherty, G. Faluvegi, S. J. Ghan, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, D. Plummer, D. T. Shindell, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, G. Zeng, M. Curran, D. Dahl-Jensen, S. Das, D. Fritzsche, and M. Nolan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7997–8018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7997-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7997-2013, 2013
M. R. Schoeberl, A. E. Dessler, and T. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7783–7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7783-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7783-2013, 2013
V. Naik, A. Voulgarakis, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Lin, M. J. Prather, P. J. Young, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, T. P. C. van Noije, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5277–5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, 2013
K. W. Bowman, D. T. Shindell, H. M. Worden, J.F. Lamarque, P. J. Young, D. S. Stevenson, Z. Qu, M. de la Torre, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. B. Dalsøren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. M. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. A. Plummer, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, G. Zeng, S. S. Kulawik, A. M. Aghedo, and J. R. Worden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4057–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, 2013
D. S. Stevenson, P. J. Young, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, A. Voulgarakis, R. B. Skeie, S. B. Dalsoren, G. Myhre, T. K. Berntsen, G. A. Folberth, S. T. Rumbold, W. J. Collins, I. A. MacKenzie, R. M. Doherty, G. Zeng, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, D. A. Plummer, S. A. Strode, L. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, S. Szopa, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, B. Josse, I. Cionni, M. Righi, V. Eyring, A. Conley, K. W. Bowman, O. Wild, and A. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
P. J. Young, A. T. Archibald, K. W. Bowman, J.-F. Lamarque, V. Naik, D. S. Stevenson, S. Tilmes, A. Voulgarakis, O. Wild, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013
J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, B. Josse, P. J. Young, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. Dalsoren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, S. J. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, and G. Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, 2013
P. J. Telford, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, O. Morgenstern, F. M. O'Connor, N. A. D. Richards, and J. A. Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 161–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-161-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-161-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Analytical approximation of the definite Chapman integral for arbitrary zenith angles
Moist bias in the Pacific upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) in climate models affects regional circulation patterns
Evaluation of vertical transport in ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalysis using high-altitude aircraft measurements in the Asian summer monsoon 2017
Injection strategy – a driver of atmospheric circulation and ozone response to stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Quantifying stratospheric ozone trends over 1984–2020: a comparison of ordinary and regularized multivariate regression models
Surface ozone over the Tibetan Plateau controlled by stratospheric intrusion
The role of tropical upwelling in explaining discrepancies between recent modeled and observed lower-stratospheric ozone trends
The roles of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño for entry stratospheric water vapor in observations and coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models
Improved estimation of volcanic SO2 injections from satellite retrievals and Lagrangian transport simulations: the 2019 Raikoke eruption
Hemispheric asymmetries in recent changes in the stratospheric circulation
A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future
The 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption – Part 1: Dispersion model simulations and satellite retrievals of volcanic sulfur dioxide
The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation inferred from age of air in the ERA5 reanalysis
Simulations of anthropogenic bromoform indicate high emissions at the coast of East Asia
Sensitivity of stratospheric water vapour to variability in tropical tropopause temperatures and large-scale transport
Technical note: Lowermost-stratosphere moist bias in ECMWF IFS model diagnosed from airborne GLORIA observations during winter–spring 2016
The response of stratospheric water vapor to climate change driven by different forcing agents
Influence of convection on stratospheric water vapor in the North American monsoon region
Electricity savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions from global phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons
Impact of convectively lofted ice on the seasonal cycle of water vapor in the tropical tropopause layer
Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability
Transport of trace gases via eddy shedding from the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone and associated impacts on ozone heating rates
Detectability of the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases upon stratospheric ozone accounting for nonlinearities in historical forcings
Multi-decadal records of stratospheric composition and their relationship to stratospheric circulation change
Brominated VSLS and their influence on ozone under a changing climate
Quantifying pollution transport from the Asian monsoon anticyclone into the lower stratosphere
A new time-independent formulation of fractional release
The millennium water vapour drop in chemistry–climate model simulations
Impact of major volcanic eruptions on stratospheric water vapour
Variability of water vapour in the Arctic stratosphere
On the hiatus in the acceleration of tropical upwelling since the beginning of the 21st century
Trends in peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over southern Asia during the summer monsoon season: regional impacts
Spatial regression analysis on 32 years of total column ozone data
Ozone seasonality above the tropical tropopause: reconciling the Eulerian and Lagrangian perspectives of transport processes
Modeling upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric water vapor anomalies
Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September–December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century
Assessment of the interannual variability and influence of the QBO and upwelling on tracer–tracer distributions of N2O and O3 in the tropical lower stratosphere
OCS photolytic isotope effects from first principles: sulfur and carbon isotopes, temperature dependence and implications for the stratosphere
On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes – Part 2: The effects of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, volcanic eruptions and contributions of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry to long-term total ozone changes
Relationships between Brewer-Dobson circulation, double tropopauses, ozone and stratospheric water vapour
Simulation of stratospheric water vapor and trends using three reanalyses
Climatological perspectives of air transport from atmospheric boundary layer to tropopause layer over Asian monsoon regions during boreal summer inferred from Lagrangian approach
Solar response in tropical stratospheric ozone: a 3-D chemical transport model study using ERA reanalyses
Geomagnetic activity related NOx enhancements and polar surface air temperature variability in a chemistry climate model: modulation of the NAM index
Forecasts and assimilation experiments of the Antarctic ozone hole 2008
Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa – Part 2: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes
Technical Note: Trend estimation from irregularly sampled, correlated data
Modeling the transport of very short-lived substances into the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere
Dongxiao Yue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5093–5097, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5093-2024, 2024
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The stunning colors of the sky and clouds result from light scattering in the atmosphere, whose density changes with height. Previously, calculating these colors involves costly, sometimes inaccurate methods. This paper presents a silver bullet: a single elegant formula that simplifies these complex calculations. What is the result? We have faster, more precise predictions of atmospheric colors, from Earth's blue skies and red sunsets to Venus's golden hues.
Felix Ploeger, Thomas Birner, Edward Charlesworth, Paul Konopka, and Rolf Müller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2033–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2033-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2033-2024, 2024
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We present a novel mechanism of how regional anomalies in water vapour concentrations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere impact regional atmospheric circulation systems. These impacts include a displaced upper-level Asian monsoon circulation and strengthened prevailing westerlies in the Pacific region. Current climate models have biases in simulating these regional water vapour anomalies and circulation impacts, but the biases can be avoided by improving the model transport.
Bärbel Vogel, C. Michael Volk, Johannes Wintel, Valentin Lauther, Jan Clemens, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Gebhard Günther, Lars Hoffmann, Johannes C. Laube, Rolf Müller, Felix Ploeger, and Fred Stroh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 317–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-317-2024, 2024
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Over the Indian subcontinent, polluted air is rapidly uplifted to higher altitudes during the Asian monsoon season. We present an assessment of vertical transport in this region using different wind data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), as well as high-resolution aircraft measurements. In general, our findings confirm that the newest ECMWF reanalysis product, ERA5, yields a better representation of transport compared to the predecessor, ERA-Interim.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Daniele Visioni, Yan Zhang, Ben Kravitz, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13665–13684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, 2023
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We use a state-of-the-art Earth system model and a set of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies to achieve the same level of global mean surface cooling through different combinations of location and/or timing of the injection. We demonstrate that the choice of SAI strategy can lead to contrasting impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, circulation, and chemistry (including stratospheric ozone), thereby leading to different impacts on regional surface climate.
Yajuan Li, Sandip S. Dhomse, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Jianchun Bian, Yuan Xia, and Dong Guo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13029–13047, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13029-2023, 2023
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For the first time a regularized multivariate regression model is used to estimate stratospheric ozone trends. Regularized regression avoids the over-fitting issue due to correlation among explanatory variables. We demonstrate that there are considerable differences in satellite-based and chemical-model-based ozone trends, highlighting large uncertainties in our understanding about ozone variability. We argue that caution is needed when interpreting results with different methods and datasets.
Xiufeng Yin, Dipesh Rupakheti, Guoshuai Zhang, Jiali Luo, Shichang Kang, Benjamin de Foy, Junhua Yang, Zhenming Ji, Zhiyuan Cong, Maheswar Rupakheti, Ping Li, Yuling Hu, and Qianggong Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10137–10143, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10137-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10137-2023, 2023
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The monthly mean surface ozone concentrations peaked earlier in the south in April and May and later in the north in June and July over the Tibetan Plateau. The migration of monthly surface ozone peaks was coupled with the synchronous movement of tropopause folds and the westerly jet that created conditions conducive to stratospheric ozone intrusion. Stratospheric ozone intrusion significantly contributed to surface ozone across the Tibetan Plateau.
Sean M. Davis, Nicholas Davis, Robert W. Portmann, Eric Ray, and Karen Rosenlof
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3347–3361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3347-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3347-2023, 2023
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Ozone in the lower part of the stratosphere has not increased and has perhaps even continued to decline in recent decades. This study demonstrates that the amount of ozone in this region is highly sensitive to the amount of air upwelling into the stratosphere in the tropics and that simulations from a climate model nudged to historical meteorological fields often fail to accurately capture the variations in tropical upwelling that control short-term trends in lower-stratospheric ozone.
Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Sean Davis, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7523–7538, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, 2022
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Stratospheric water vapor is important for Earth's overall greenhouse effect and for ozone chemistry; however the factors governing its variability on interannual timescales are not fully known, and previous modeling studies have indicated that models struggle to capture this interannual variability. We demonstrate that nonlinear interactions are important for determining overall water vapor concentrations and also that models have improved in their ability to capture these connections.
Zhongyin Cai, Sabine Griessbach, and Lars Hoffmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6787–6809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6787-2022, 2022
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Using AIRS and TROPOMI sulfur dioxide retrievals and the Lagrangian transport model MPTRAC, we present an improved reconstruction of injection parameters of the 2019 Raikoke eruption. Reconstructions agree well between using AIRS nighttime and TROPOMI daytime retrievals, showing the potential of our approach to create a long-term volcanic sulfur dioxide inventory from nearly 20 years of AIRS retrievals.
Felix Ploeger and Hella Garny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5559–5576, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5559-2022, 2022
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We investigate hemispheric asymmetries in stratospheric circulation changes in the last 2 decades in model simulations and atmospheric observations. We find that observed trace gas changes can be explained by a structural circulation change related to a deepening circulation in the Northern Hemisphere relative to the Southern Hemisphere. As this asymmetric signal is small compared to internal variability observed circulation trends over the recent past are not in contradiction to climate models.
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Alessio Bozzo, Nicholas Byrne, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Michail Diamantakis, Johannes Flemming, Lesley J. Gray, Robin J. Hogan, Luke Jones, Linus Magnusson, Inna Polichtchouk, Theodore G. Shepherd, Nils Wedi, and Antje Weisheimer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4277–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, 2022
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The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different timescales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high-resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
Johannes de Leeuw, Anja Schmidt, Claire S. Witham, Nicolas Theys, Isabelle A. Taylor, Roy G. Grainger, Richard J. Pope, Jim Haywood, Martin Osborne, and Nina I. Kristiansen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10851–10879, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10851-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10851-2021, 2021
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Using the NAME dispersion model in combination with high-resolution SO2 satellite data from TROPOMI, we investigate the dispersion of volcanic SO2 from the 2019 Raikoke eruption. NAME accurately simulates the dispersion of SO2 during the first 2–3 weeks after the eruption and illustrates the potential of using high-resolution satellite data to identify potential limitations in dispersion models, which will ultimately help to improve efforts to forecast the dispersion of volcanic clouds.
Felix Ploeger, Mohamadou Diallo, Edward Charlesworth, Paul Konopka, Bernard Legras, Johannes C. Laube, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Gebhard Günther, Andreas Engel, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8393–8412, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8393-2021, 2021
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We investigate the global stratospheric circulation (Brewer–Dobson circulation) in the new ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis based on age of air simulations, and we compare it to results from the preceding ERA-Interim reanalysis. Our results show a slower stratospheric circulation and higher age for ERA5. The age of air trend in ERA5 over the 1989–2018 period is negative throughout the stratosphere, related to multi-annual variability and a potential contribution from changes in the reanalysis system.
Josefine Maas, Susann Tegtmeier, Yue Jia, Birgit Quack, Jonathan V. Durgadoo, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4103–4121, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4103-2021, 2021
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Cooling-water disinfection at coastal power plants is a known source of atmospheric bromoform. A large source of anthropogenic bromoform is the industrial regions in East Asia. In current bottom-up flux estimates, these anthropogenic emissions are missing, underestimating the global air–sea flux of bromoform. With transport simulations, we show that by including anthropogenic bromoform from cooling-water treatment, the bottom-up flux estimates significantly improve in East and Southeast Asia.
Jacob W. Smith, Peter H. Haynes, Amanda C. Maycock, Neal Butchart, and Andrew C. Bushell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2469–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021, 2021
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This paper informs realistic simulation of stratospheric water vapour by clearly attributing each of the two key influences on water vapour entry to the stratosphere. Presenting modified trajectory models, the results of this paper show temperatures dominate on annual and inter-annual variations; however, transport has a significant effect in reducing the annual cycle maximum. Furthermore, sub-seasonal variations in temperature have an important overall influence.
Wolfgang Woiwode, Andreas Dörnbrack, Inna Polichtchouk, Sören Johansson, Ben Harvey, Michael Höpfner, Jörn Ungermann, and Felix Friedl-Vallon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15379–15387, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15379-2020, 2020
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The lowermost-stratosphere moist bias in ECMWF analyses and 12 h forecasts is diagnosed for the Arctic winter-spring 2016 period by using two-dimensional GLORIA water vapor observations. The bias is already present in the initial conditions (i.e., the analyses), and sensitivity forecasts on time scales of < 12 h show hardly any sensitivity to modified spatial resolution and output frequency.
Xun Wang and Andrew E. Dessler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13267–13282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13267-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13267-2020, 2020
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We investigate the response of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) to different forcing agents, including greenhouse gases and aerosols. For most forcing agents, the SWV response is dominated by a slow response, which is coupled to surface temperature changes and exhibits a similar sensitivity to the surface temperature across all forcing agents. The fast SWV adjustment due to forcing is important when the forcing agent directly heats the cold-point region, e.g., black carbon.
Wandi Yu, Andrew E. Dessler, Mijeong Park, and Eric J. Jensen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12153–12161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12153-2020, 2020
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The stratospheric water vapor mixing ratio over North America (NA) region is up to ~ 1 ppmv higher when deep convection occurs. We find substantial consistency in the interannual variations of NA water vapor anomaly and deep convection and explain both the summer seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the convective moistening efficiency. We show that the NA anticyclone and tropical upper tropospheric temperature determine how much deep convection moistens the lower stratosphere.
Pallav Purohit, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, John Dulac, Nihar Shah, Max Wei, Peter Rafaj, and Wolfgang Schöpp
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11305–11327, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11305-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11305-2020, 2020
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This study shows that if energy efficiency improvements in cooling technologies are addressed simultaneously with a phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), not only will global warming be mitigated through the elimination of HFCs but also by saving about a fifth of future global electricity consumption. This means preventing between 411 and 631 Pg CO2 equivalent of greenhouse gases between today and 2100, thereby offering a significant contribution towards staying well below 2 °C warming.
Xun Wang, Andrew E. Dessler, Mark R. Schoeberl, Wandi Yu, and Tao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14621–14636, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14621-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14621-2019, 2019
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We use a trajectory model to diagnose mechanisms that produce the observed and modeled tropical lower stratospheric water vapor seasonal cycle. We confirm that the seasonal cycle of water vapor is primarily determined by the seasonal cycle of tropical tropopause layer (TTL) temperatures. However, between 10° N and 40° N, we find that evaporation of convective ice in the TTL plays a key role contributing to the water vapor seasonal cycle there. The Asian monsoon region is the most important region.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amanda C. Maycock, Paul J. Telford, Peter Braesicke, N. Luke Abraham, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5209–5233, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5209-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5209-2019, 2019
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Following model improvements, the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing simulated in the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model is discussed for the first time. In contrast to most previous studies in the literature, we compare the results diagnosed using both a composite and a MLR methodology, and we show that apparently different signals can be diagnosed in the troposphere. In addition, we look at the role of internal atmospheric variability for the detection of the solar response.
Suvarna Fadnavis, Chaitri Roy, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Christopher E. Sioris, Alexandru Rap, Rolf Müller, K. Ravi Kumar, and Raghavan Krishnan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11493–11506, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11493-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11493-2018, 2018
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Rapid industrialization, traffic growth and urbanization resulted in a significant increase in the tropospheric trace gases over Asia. There is global concern about rising levels of these trace gases. The monsoon convection transports these gases to the upper-level-anticyclone. In this study, we show transport of these gases to the extratropics via eddy-shedding from the anticyclone. We also deliberate on changes in ozone heating rates due to the transport of Asian trace gases.
Justin Bandoro, Susan Solomon, Benjamin D. Santer, Douglas E. Kinnison, and Michael J. Mills
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 143–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-143-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-143-2018, 2018
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We studied the attribution of stratospheric ozone changes and identified similarities between observations and human fingerprints from both emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs). We developed an improvement on the traditional pattern correlation method that accounts for nonlinearities in the climate forcing time evolution. Use of the latter resulted in increased S / N ratios for the ODS fingerprint. The GHG fingerprint was not identifiable.
Anne R. Douglass, Susan E. Strahan, Luke D. Oman, and Richard S. Stolarski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12081–12096, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12081-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12081-2017, 2017
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Data records from instruments on satellites and on the ground are compared with a simulation for 1980–2016 that is made using winds and temperatures that are derived from measurements. The simulation tracks the observations faithfully after about 2000, but there are systematic errors for earlier years. Scientists must take this into account when trying to detect and quantify changes in the stratospheric circulation that are caused by climate change.
Stefanie Falk, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Gisèle Krysztofiak, Patrick Jöckel, Phoebe Graf, and Sinikka T. Lennartz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11313–11329, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11313-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11313-2017, 2017
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Brominated very short-lived source gases (VSLS) contribute significantly to the tropospheric and stratospheric bromine loading. We find an increase of future ocean–atmosphere flux of brominated VSLS of 8–10 % compared to present day. A decrease in the tropospheric mixing ratios of VSLS and an increase in the lower stratosphere are attributed to changes in atmospheric chemistry and transport. Bromine impact on stratospheric ozone at the end of the 21st century is reduced compared to present day.
Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Kaley Walker, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7055–7066, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7055-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7055-2017, 2017
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Pollution transport from the surface to the stratosphere within the Asian summer monsoon circulation may cause harmful effects on stratospheric chemistry and climate. We investigate air mass transport from the monsoon anticyclone into the stratosphere, combining model simulations with satellite trace gas measurements. We show evidence for two transport pathways from the monsoon: (i) into the tropical stratosphere and (ii) into the Northern Hemisphere extratropical lower stratosphere.
Jennifer Ostermöller, Harald Bönisch, Patrick Jöckel, and Andreas Engel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3785–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3785-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3785-2017, 2017
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We analysed the temporal evolution of fractional release factors (FRFs) from EMAC model simulations for several halocarbons and nitrous oxide. The current formulation of FRFs yields values that depend on the tropospheric trend of the species. This is a problematic issue for the application of FRF in the calculation of steady-state quantities (e.g. ODP). Including a loss term in the calculation, we develop a new formulation of FRF and find that the time dependence can almost be compensated.
Sabine Brinkop, Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, Hella Garny, Stefan Lossow, and Gabriele Stiller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8125–8140, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8125-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8125-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the water vapour decline in the stratosphere beginning in the year 2000 and other similarly strong stratospheric water vapour reductions. The driving forces are tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes due to coincidence with a preceding ENSO event and supported by the west to east change of the QBO.
There are indications that both SSTs and the specific dynamical state of the atmosphere contribute to the long period of low water vapour values from 2001 to 2006.
Michael Löffler, Sabine Brinkop, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6547–6562, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6547-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6547-2016, 2016
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After the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on the Philippines in 1991, stratospheric water vapour is significantly increased. This results from increased stratospheric heating rates due to volcanic aerosol and the subsequent changes in stratospheric and tropopause temperatures in the tropics. The tropical vertical advection and the South Asian summer monsoon are identified as important sources for the additional water vapour in the stratosphere.
Laura Thölix, Leif Backman, Rigel Kivi, and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4307–4321, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4307-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4307-2016, 2016
J. Aschmann, J. P. Burrows, C. Gebhardt, A. Rozanov, R. Hommel, M. Weber, and A. M. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12803–12814, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12803-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12803-2014, 2014
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This study compares observations and simulation results of ozone in the lower tropical stratosphere. It shows that ozone in this region decreased from 1985 up to about 2002, which is consistent with an increase in tropical upwelling predicted by climate models. However, the decrease effectively stops after 2002, indicating that significant changes in tropical upwelling have occurred. The most important factor appears to be that the vertical ascent in the tropics is no longer accelerating.
S. Fadnavis, M. G. Schultz, K. Semeniuk, A. S. Mahajan, L. Pozzoli, S. Sonbawne, S. D. Ghude, M. Kiefer, and E. Eckert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12725–12743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12725-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12725-2014, 2014
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The Asian summer monsoon transports pollutants from local emission sources to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The increasing trend of these pollutants may have climatic impact. This study addresses the impact of convectively lifted Indian and Chinese emissions on the ULTS. Sensitivity experiments with emission changes in particular regions show that Chinese emissions have a greater impact on the concentrations of NOY species than Indian emissions.
J. S. Knibbe, R. J. van der A, and A. T. J. de Laat
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8461–8482, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8461-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8461-2014, 2014
M. Abalos, F. Ploeger, P. Konopka, W. J. Randel, and E. Serrano
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10787–10794, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10787-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10787-2013, 2013
M. R. Schoeberl, A. E. Dessler, and T. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7783–7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7783-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7783-2013, 2013
J. M. Siddaway, S. V. Petelina, D. J. Karoly, A. R. Klekociuk, and R. J. Dargaville
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4413–4427, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013, 2013
F. Khosrawi, R. Müller, J. Urban, M. H. Proffitt, G. Stiller, M. Kiefer, S. Lossow, D. Kinnison, F. Olschewski, M. Riese, and D. Murtagh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3619–3641, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3619-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3619-2013, 2013
J. A. Schmidt, M. S. Johnson, S. Hattori, N. Yoshida, S. Nanbu, and R. Schinke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1511–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1511-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1511-2013, 2013
H. E. Rieder, L. Frossard, M. Ribatet, J. Staehelin, J. A. Maeder, S. Di Rocco, A. C. Davison, T. Peter, P. Weihs, and F. Holawe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 165–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-165-2013, 2013
J. M. Castanheira, T. R. Peevey, C. A. F. Marques, and M. A. Olsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 10195–10208, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-10195-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-10195-2012, 2012
M. R. Schoeberl, A. E. Dessler, and T. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 6475–6487, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-6475-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-6475-2012, 2012
B. Chen, X. D. Xu, S. Yang, and T. L. Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 5827–5839, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-5827-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-5827-2012, 2012
S. Dhomse, M. P. Chipperfield, W. Feng, and J. D. Haigh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 12773–12786, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-12773-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-12773-2011, 2011
A. J. G. Baumgaertner, A. Seppälä, P. Jöckel, and M. A. Clilverd
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4521–4531, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4521-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4521-2011, 2011
J. Flemming, A. Inness, L. Jones, H. J. Eskes, V. Huijnen, M. G. Schultz, O. Stein, D. Cariolle, D. Kinnison, and G. Brasseur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1961–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1961-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1961-2011, 2011
H. E. Rieder, J. Staehelin, J. A. Maeder, T. Peter, M. Ribatet, A. C. Davison, R. Stübi, P. Weihs, and F. Holawe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 10033–10045, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-10033-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-10033-2010, 2010
T. von Clarmann, G. Stiller, U. Grabowski, E. Eckert, and J. Orphal
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 9237–9247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-9237-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-9237-2009, 2009
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Short summary
This paper explains a new way to evaluate simulated lower-stratospheric water vapor. We use a multivariate linear regression to predict 21st century lower stratospheric water vapor within 12 chemistry climate models using tropospheric warming, the Brewer–Dobson circulation, and the quasi-biennial oscillation as predictors. This methodology produce strong fits to simulated water vapor, and potentially represents a superior method to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric water vapor.
This paper explains a new way to evaluate simulated lower-stratospheric water vapor. We use a...
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