Articles | Volume 17, issue 13
Research article
04 Jul 2017
Research article |  | 04 Jul 2017

Contribution of different processes to changes in tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in chemistry–climate models

Kevin M. Smalley, Andrew E. Dessler, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, David A. Plummer, Kiyotaka Shibata, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng

Data sets

CEDA Data Browser British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC)

The IGAC/SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Phase-1 (CCMI-1) model data output M. I. Hegglin and J.-F. Lamarque

Short summary
This paper explains a new way to evaluate simulated lower-stratospheric water vapor. We use a multivariate linear regression to predict 21st century lower stratospheric water vapor within 12 chemistry climate models using tropospheric warming, the Brewer–Dobson circulation, and the quasi-biennial oscillation as predictors. This methodology produce strong fits to simulated water vapor, and potentially represents a superior method to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric water vapor.
Final-revised paper