Articles | Volume 17, issue 13 
            
                
                    
                    
            
            
            https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017
                    © Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under 
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
                the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017
                    © Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under 
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
                the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Contribution of different processes to changes in tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in chemistry–climate models
                                            Department of Atmospheric Sciences,
Texas A&M, College Station, Texas, USA
                                        
                                    Andrew E. Dessler
                                            Department of Atmospheric Sciences,
Texas A&M, College Station, Texas, USA
                                        
                                    Slimane Bekki
                                            LATMOS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France
                                        
                                    Makoto Deushi
                                            Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan
                                        
                                    Marion Marchand
                                            LATMOS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France
                                        
                                    Olaf Morgenstern
                                            National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
                                        
                                    David A. Plummer
                                            Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Canada
                                        
                                    Kiyotaka Shibata
                                            School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Kochi University of Technology, Kami, Japan
                                        
                                    Yousuke Yamashita
                                            National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
                                        
                                    
                                            now at: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
                                        
                                    Guang Zeng
                                            National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
                                        
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                            Cited
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The Impact of Continuing CFC‐11 Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone E. Fleming et al. 10.1029/2019JD031849
- The Surface Warming Attributable to Stratospheric Water Vapor in CO2‐Caused Global Warming Y. Wang & Y. Huang 10.1029/2020JD032752
- Interpol-IAGOS: a new method for assessing long-term chemistry–climate simulations in the UTLS based on IAGOS data, and its application to the MOCAGE CCMI REF-C1SD simulation Y. Cohen et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-2659-2021
- Opinion: Why all emergent constraints are wrong but some are useful – a machine learning perspective P. Nowack & D. Watson-Parris 10.5194/acp-25-2365-2025
- Stratospheric radiative feedback limited by the tropospheric influence in global warming Y. Wang & Y. Huang 10.1007/s00382-020-05390-4
- The response of stratospheric water vapor to climate change driven by different forcing agents X. Wang & A. Dessler 10.5194/acp-20-13267-2020
- Inconsistencies between chemistry–climate models and observed lower stratospheric ozone trends since 1998 W. Ball et al. 10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020
- Water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks in the climate system R. Colman & B. Soden 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.045002
- Elliptical Structures of Gravity Waves Produced by Typhoon Soudelor in 2015 near Taiwan F. Chane Ming et al. 10.3390/atmos10050260
- Stratospheric Water Vapor Feedback Disclosed by a Locking Experiment Y. Huang et al. 10.1029/2020GL087987
- Robust Acceleration of Stratospheric Moistening and Its Radiative Feedback Under Greenhouse Warming Y. Xia et al. 10.1029/2020JD033090
- Modeling the TTL at Continental Scale for a Wet Season: An Evaluation of the BRAMS Mesoscale Model Using TRO‐Pico Campaign, and Measurements From Airborne and Spaceborne Sensors A. Behera et al. 10.1002/2017JD027969
- The roles of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño for entry stratospheric water vapor in observations and coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models S. Ziskin Ziv et al. 10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022
- Multi-decadal variability controls short-term stratospheric water vapor trends M. Tao et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-01094-9
- Seasonal effects of atmospheric waves over tropical tropopause using radiosonde observations at Hyderabad, India S. Mohammad et al. 10.1007/s00703-022-00918-1
- Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100 J. Keeble et al. 10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021
- Effects of convective ice evaporation on interannual variability of tropical tropopause layer water vapor H. Ye et al. 10.5194/acp-18-4425-2018
- Stratospheric water vapor: an important climate feedback A. Banerjee et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04721-4
- Significant Contribution of Stratospheric Water Vapor to the Poleward Expansion of the Hadley Circulation in Autumn Under Greenhouse Warming Y. Xia et al. 10.1029/2021GL094008
- Linking uncertainty in simulated Arctic ozone loss to uncertainties in modelled tropical stratospheric water vapour L. Thölix et al. 10.5194/acp-18-15047-2018
- Response of stratospheric water vapour to warming constrained by satellite observations P. Nowack et al. 10.1038/s41561-023-01183-6
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The Impact of Continuing CFC‐11 Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone E. Fleming et al. 10.1029/2019JD031849
- The Surface Warming Attributable to Stratospheric Water Vapor in CO2‐Caused Global Warming Y. Wang & Y. Huang 10.1029/2020JD032752
- Interpol-IAGOS: a new method for assessing long-term chemistry–climate simulations in the UTLS based on IAGOS data, and its application to the MOCAGE CCMI REF-C1SD simulation Y. Cohen et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-2659-2021
- Opinion: Why all emergent constraints are wrong but some are useful – a machine learning perspective P. Nowack & D. Watson-Parris 10.5194/acp-25-2365-2025
- Stratospheric radiative feedback limited by the tropospheric influence in global warming Y. Wang & Y. Huang 10.1007/s00382-020-05390-4
- The response of stratospheric water vapor to climate change driven by different forcing agents X. Wang & A. Dessler 10.5194/acp-20-13267-2020
- Inconsistencies between chemistry–climate models and observed lower stratospheric ozone trends since 1998 W. Ball et al. 10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020
- Water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks in the climate system R. Colman & B. Soden 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.045002
- Elliptical Structures of Gravity Waves Produced by Typhoon Soudelor in 2015 near Taiwan F. Chane Ming et al. 10.3390/atmos10050260
- Stratospheric Water Vapor Feedback Disclosed by a Locking Experiment Y. Huang et al. 10.1029/2020GL087987
- Robust Acceleration of Stratospheric Moistening and Its Radiative Feedback Under Greenhouse Warming Y. Xia et al. 10.1029/2020JD033090
- Modeling the TTL at Continental Scale for a Wet Season: An Evaluation of the BRAMS Mesoscale Model Using TRO‐Pico Campaign, and Measurements From Airborne and Spaceborne Sensors A. Behera et al. 10.1002/2017JD027969
- The roles of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño for entry stratospheric water vapor in observations and coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models S. Ziskin Ziv et al. 10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022
- Multi-decadal variability controls short-term stratospheric water vapor trends M. Tao et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-01094-9
- Seasonal effects of atmospheric waves over tropical tropopause using radiosonde observations at Hyderabad, India S. Mohammad et al. 10.1007/s00703-022-00918-1
- Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100 J. Keeble et al. 10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021
- Effects of convective ice evaporation on interannual variability of tropical tropopause layer water vapor H. Ye et al. 10.5194/acp-18-4425-2018
- Stratospheric water vapor: an important climate feedback A. Banerjee et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04721-4
- Significant Contribution of Stratospheric Water Vapor to the Poleward Expansion of the Hadley Circulation in Autumn Under Greenhouse Warming Y. Xia et al. 10.1029/2021GL094008
- Linking uncertainty in simulated Arctic ozone loss to uncertainties in modelled tropical stratospheric water vapour L. Thölix et al. 10.5194/acp-18-15047-2018
- Response of stratospheric water vapour to warming constrained by satellite observations P. Nowack et al. 10.1038/s41561-023-01183-6
Discussed (preprint)
Latest update: 31 Oct 2025
Short summary
                    This paper explains a new way to evaluate simulated lower-stratospheric water vapor. We use a multivariate linear regression to predict 21st century lower stratospheric water vapor within 12 chemistry climate models using tropospheric warming, the Brewer–Dobson circulation, and the quasi-biennial oscillation as predictors. This methodology produce strong fits to simulated water vapor, and potentially represents a superior method to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric water vapor.
                    This paper explains a new way to evaluate simulated lower-stratospheric water vapor. We use a...
                    
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