Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016

Research article 22 Mar 2016

Research article | 22 Mar 2016

Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

James Hansen et al.

Related authors

Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?
Karina von Schuckmann, Lijing Cheng, Matthew D. Palmer, James Hansen, Caterina Tassone, Valentin Aich, Susheel Adusumilli, Hugo Beltrami, Tim Boyer, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Damien Desbruyères, Catia Domingues, Almudena García-García, Pierre Gentine, John Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Masayoshi Ishii, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian A. King, Gottfried Kirchengast, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, John Lyman, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Maeva Monier, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Axel Schweiger, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Andrew Shepherd, Donald A. Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Fiammetta Straneo, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Susan E. Wijffels
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann, David J. Beerling, Junji Cao, Shaun Marcott, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Michael J. Prather, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeremy Shakun, Pete Smith, Andrew Lacis, Gary Russell, and Reto Ruedy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 2017
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Anthropogenic aerosol effects on tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (1980–2020): separating the role of zonally asymmetric forcings
Chenrui Diao, Yangyang Xu, and Shang-Ping Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18499–18518, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18499-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18499-2021, 2021
Short summary
Lightning-ignited wildfires and long continuing current lightning in the Mediterranean Basin: preferential meteorological conditions
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Heidi Huntrieser, Sergio Soler, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Nicolau Pineda, Javier Navarro-González, Víctor Reglero, Joan Montanyà, Oscar van der Velde, and Nikos Koutsias
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17529–17557, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17529-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17529-2021, 2021
Short summary
Identifying source regions of air masses sampled at the tropical high-altitude site of Chacaltaya using WRF-FLEXPART and cluster analysis
Diego Aliaga, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marcos Andrade, Paulo Artaxo, Samara Carbone, Evgeny Kadantsev, Paolo Laj, Alfred Wiedensohler, Radovan Krejci, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16453–16477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16453-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16453-2021, 2021
Short summary
Modelling spatiotemporal variations of the canopy layer urban heat island in Beijing at the neighbourhood scale
Michael Biggart, Jenny Stocker, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, David Carruthers, Sue Grimmond, Yiqun Han, Pingqing Fu, and Simone Kotthaus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13687–13711, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13687-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13687-2021, 2021
Short summary
Dispersion of particulate matter (PM2.5) from wood combustion for residential heating: optimization of mitigation actions based on large-eddy simulations
Tobias Wolf, Lasse H. Pettersson, and Igor Esau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12463–12477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12463-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12463-2021, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

Abdalati, W., Krabill, W., Frederick, E., Manizade, S., Martin, C., Sonntag, J., Swift, R., Thomas, R., Yungel, J., and Koerner, R.: Elevation changes of ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, J. Geophy. Res., 109, F04007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JF000045, 2004.
Adkins, J. F., Boyle, E. A., Keigwin, L., and Cortijo, E.: Variability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation during the last interglacial period, Nature, 390, 154–156, 1997.
Ahn, J., Brrok, E.J., Schmittner, A., and Kreutz, K.: Abrupt change in atmospheric CO2 during the last ice age, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18711, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053018, 2012.
Alley, R. B., Dupont, T. K., Parizek, B. R., Anandakrishnan, S., Lawson, D. E., Larson, G. J., and Evenson, E. B.: Outburst flooding and the initiation of ice-stream surges in response to climatic cooling: a hypothesis, Geomorphology, 75, 76–89, 2006.
Álvarez-Solas, J., Charbit, S., Ritz, C., Paillard, D., Ramstein, G., and Dumas, C.: Links between ocean temperature and iceberg discharge during Heinrich events, Nat. Geosci., 3, 122–126, 2010.
Download
Short summary
We use climate simulations, paleoclimate data and modern observations to infer that continued high fossil fuel emissions will yield cooling of Southern Ocean and North Atlantic surfaces, slowdown and shutdown of SMOC & AMOC, increasingly powerful storms and nonlinear sea level rise reaching several meters in 50–150 years, effects missed in IPCC reports because of omission of ice sheet melt and an insensitivity of most climate models, likely due to excessive ocean mixing.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint