Articles | Volume 23, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Sep 2023
Research article |
| 07 Sep 2023
| 07 Sep 2023
Constraints on simulated past Arctic amplification and lapse rate feedback from observations
Olivia Linke
Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Johannes Quaas
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Finja Baumer
Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Sebastian Becker
Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Jan Chylik
Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
Sandro Dahlke
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
André Ehrlich
Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Dörthe Handorf
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Christoph Jacobi
Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Heike Kalesse-Los
Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Luca Lelli
Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Remote Sensing Technology Institute, German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Weßling, Germany
Sina Mehrdad
Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Roel A. J. Neggers
Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
Johannes Riebold
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Pablo Saavedra Garfias
Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Niklas Schnierstein
Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
Matthew D. Shupe
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Physical Sciences Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA
Chris Smith
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Energy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Gunnar Spreen
Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Baptiste Verneuil
Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Department of Mechanics and Energetics, École Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France
Kameswara S. Vinjamuri
Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Marco Vountas
Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Manfred Wendisch
Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Anne Sledd, Michael R. Gallagher, Matthew D. Shupe, Christopher J. Cox, Robert Hawley, Michael S. Town, Heather Guy, Hans-Peter Marshall, Ryan R. Neely III, Claire Pettersen, Von P. Walden, Catherine Hebson, Andrew Martin, Erik Olson, and Derek Pickell
The Cryosphere, 20, 6423–6452, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-6423-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-6423-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding energetic processes at the surface is important for understanding how the Greenland ice sheet melts. However, most temperature observations of firn are insufficient for studying energetic processes near the surface where melt happens. In this work we present new ground observations of high-resolution temperature profiles in the top meter of firn near the southwest coast of Greenland. Using these observations we characterize how temperature and energy vary during the melt season.
Hengqi Wang, Yiran Peng, Knut von Salzen, Husi Letu, Minqi Wang, Jiangnan Li, Hailing Jia, Huazhe Shang, Dabin Ji, Yuying Wang, Xin He, Luke Fraser-Leach, and Johannes Quaas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6624, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols act as seeds for cloud formation and influence Earth's climate. Building on the aerosol evaluation in Part 1, we further evaluated an improved aerosol-climate model against observations to assess its ability to simulate clouds, rainfall, radiation, and aerosol-cloud interactions. The new model better simulates key cloud particles and their responses to aerosols, improving our understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions and their effects on climate.
Hengqi Wang, Minqi Wang, Yiran Peng, Knut von Salzen, Jiangnan Li, Husi Letu, Luke Fraser-Leach, Jinyuan Xin, Xiaoye Zhang, and Johannes Quaas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6615, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6615, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols affect Earth's climate by changing how sunlight travels through the atmosphere and how clouds form. We developed an improved aerosol-climate model and tested it against observations from ground stations, ships, and satellites. The new model generally agrees better with observations, especially for aerosol number and optical properties, including in the Arctic. This work helps improve our understanding of aerosol effects on climate and supports more reliable climate predictions.
Sophie Rosenburg, Benjamin Kirbus, Anna Elizabeth Luebke, Michael Schäfer, André Ehrlich, Marcus Klingebiel, Joshua Jeremias Müller, and Manfred Wendisch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5857, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5857, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
The transport of cold and dry air masses across the sea ice edge over the open ocean is often connected to cloud formation. To quantify the coverage and the radiative effect of these clouds, airborne thermal-infrared imaging with high spatial resolution is used. Along the transport pathway the cloud radiative effect is mainly determined by cloud fraction and not by changing cloud properties. This conclusion is found to be still valid for observations with coarser spatial resolution.
Yannick Emanuel Anders, Karoline Block, Mira Pöhlker, and Johannes Quaas
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 10571–10593, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-10571-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-10571-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Particles in the atmosphere can trigger the formation of cloud droplets, affecting cloud properties and climate. This study evaluates a new global dataset of these particles with measurements from 25 sites around the world. The variability in time and space and their conditional formation behaviour is analysed. The authors identify systematic biases and introduce a simple correction based on observations that greatly improves the dataset's accuracy.
Amen Al-Yaari, Chris Smith, Yi Yao, Kjetil S. Aas, L. Ruby Leung, Min-Hui Lo, Sonali McDermid, Larissa Nazarenko, Yadu Pokhrel, Yusuke Satoh, Tokuta Yokohata, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 1629–1647, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1629-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1629-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use historical simulations (1902-2014) from the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP) to provide the first multi-model quantification of irrigation-induced effective radiative forcing (ERF). We find that the global multi-model mean ERF is positive but small (~0.023 W m⁻²). This small global signal masks regional heterogeneity: South Asia and West Central Asia show higher positive ERF (~0.23 W m⁻²), whereas East Asia exhibits a negative signal (~ −0.03 W m⁻²).
Pablo Saavedra Garfias and Heike Kalesse-Los
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 14843–14865, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-14843-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-14843-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic low level mixed-phase clouds were analysed from 14 years of wintertime observations from the North Slope of Alaska. We found that Arctic cloud physical properties are in correlation with changes in upwind sea ice. The cloud liquid and ice water content increases as sea ice decreases, although not at the same magnitude. Moreover, we uncovered that cloud properties have oscillation properties along the years that resemble climate indicators like El Niño Southern Oscillation among others.
Ramon C. Braga, Manfred Wendisch, Rachel Albrecht, and Daniel Harrison
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 14769–14791, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-14769-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-14769-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new thermodynamic framework to derive water vapor supersaturation at warm cumulus cloud base from in situ measurements. The framework describes the local transition between saturated thermodynamic states as an adiabatic and reversible process under quasi-isobaric conditions, in which the latent energy released during condensation is partitioned between changes in internal energy and water-vapor expansion work.
Johanna Roschke, Benedikt Gast, Martin Radenz, Albert Ansmann, Patric Seifert, George McCosh, and Heike Kalesse-Los
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 9905–9934, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-9905-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-9905-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This research introduces a new method that combines model simulations with satellite observations to attribute the influence of wildfire smoke on an airmass. By dynamically determining the height of smoke plumes, we overcome a key limitation of earlier fixed reception-height approaches. This advancement is crucial for improving our understanding of how wildfire emissions influence cloud formation and the broader Earth's climate system.
William Schoenberg, Benjamin Blanz, Jefferson K. Rajah, Beniamino Callegari, Christopher Wells, Theresia B. Putranti, Francisco Mahu, Maria Molina, Alexandre C. Köberle, Catherine Li, Wanderson Costa, David Collste, Karel Zwetsloot, Jannes Breier, Lennart Ramme, Chris Smith, and Cecilie Mauritzen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5980, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We document an updated global simulation model, FRIDA v3.1, used to explore how climate, society, technology, land and the economy interact over time. The model reproduces historical trends and explores a myriad of possible futures while capturing new links among human decisions, climate impacts and economic change. Results show how changes can create wider effects than anticipated, providing a broader tool for exploring risk, uncertainty and the consequences of policy choices.
Fiona Paulus, Joshua J. Müller, Benjamin Kirbus, Harald Sodemann, Lars van Gelder, Andreas Walbröl, Manfred Wendisch, and Roel A. J. Neggers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 13983–14014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13983-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13983-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Cold Arctic air flowing from sea ice onto the warmer ocean waters rapidly warms, moistens, and forms clouds and precipitation. These events shape the Arctic climate but are difficult to observe and model. Particularly the role of large-scale sinking motion during these events is not fully understood. Using rare aircraft data and simulations to track an air mass for two days, we show that strong downward motion suppresses cloud growth, limits and delays precipitation, and reduces cloud lifetimes.
Pradeep K. Aggarwal, Courtney Schumacher, Frederick J. Longstaffe, Aaron Funk, and Matthew D. Shupe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 13661–13692, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13661-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13661-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We show that in mixed-phase clouds, ice forming by riming, that is, freezing of supercooled liquid directly on ice particles, differs in its isotope composition than the liquid, contrary to the existing view in the literature. This isotopic change is the same for riming in tropical to polar precipitation. Our results provide a robust tool for cloud processes studies, for better understanding past climates from ice cores data, and for improving micro-physics schemes in climate models.
Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Raphael Köhler, Xavier Levine, René R. Wijngaard, Ryan S. Williams, Gareth J. Marshall, and Priscilla A. Mooney
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5525, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents and explores the first storyline-based multi-model experiment sets with polar refinement, where the low-level boundary conditions represent contrasting storylines of future Arctic and Antarctic climate change. Using novel summary metrics, we quantify the influence of the storyline, model, and resolution on large-scale atmospheric fields and find that generally, the storyline forcing and model have a greater influence on the future responses than local changes in resolution.
Timothy W. Juliano, Florian Tornow, Ann M. Fridlind, Andrew S. Ackerman, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Bart Geerts, Christian P. Lackner, David Painemal, Israel Silber, Mikhail Ovchinnikov, Gunilla Svensson, Michael Tjernström, Peng Wu, Alejandro Baró Pérez, Peter Bogenschutz, Dmitry Chechin, Kamal Kant Chandrakar, Jan Chylik, Andrey Debolskiy, Rostislav Fadeev, Anu Gupta, Luisa Ickes, Michail Karalis, Martin Köhler, Branko Kosović, Peter Kuma, Weiwei Li, Evgeny Mortikov, Hugh Morrison, Roel A. J. Neggers, Anna Possner, Tomi Raatikainen, Lea Raillard, Sami Romakkaniemi, Niklas Schnierstein, Shin-ichiro Shima, Nikita Silin, Mikhail Tolstykh, Étienne Vignon, Lulin Xue, Meng Zhang, and Xue Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 13267–13302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13267-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13267-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Models struggle to capture cloud and precipitation processes and their radiative effects in marine cold-air outbreaks. We use a quasi-Lagrangian framework to compare large-eddy simulation (LES) and single-column model (SCM) output with field and satellite observations. With fixed droplet and ice numbers, LES and SCM agree in liquid-only tests. In mixed-phase conditions, LES plausibly capture cloud thinning and breakup, while SCMs largely remain overcast and thereby miss cloud radiative effects.
Kara Hartig, John J. Cassano, Matthew D. Shupe, and Amy Solomon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 12689–12714, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-12689-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-12689-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Liquid-containing Arctic clouds have a strong influence on surface temperature and sea ice extent in winter, but how weather conditions impact cloud cover remains a mystery. This study uses observations from northern Alaska to investigate this relationship. We find that, contrary to expectations, the amount of cloud liquid is remarkably insensitive to temperature, moisture, wind direction, and the large-scale atmospheric flow.
Alexander Nauels, Tessa Möller, Victor Couplet, Robert E. Kopp, Praveen Kumar, Matthias Mengel, Gregory Munday, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Lennart Ramme, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Chris Smith, Jennifer H. Weeks, and Tony E. Wong
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3874, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Sea levels will keep rising for centuries, so coastal planning needs long-term outlooks. For the first time, we brought together seven simplified models, called emulators, and combined their estimates of future sea level rise to year 2300, including a scenario with strong temperature overshoot before returning to 1.5 °C of warming. The emulators differ most over how much ice Antarctica will lose. Even if global temperatures fall again, extra sea level rise stays locked in for centuries.
Anna Trosits, Andreas Foth, Allison A. Wing, Johanna Roschke, Moritz Haarig, Anton Kötsche, and Heike Kalesse-Los
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4385, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows the effect of air layers originating from the Saharan Desert on clouds over the tropical Atlantic observed during the ship-borne research campaign BOWTIE. These Saharan Air Layers (SAL) were analysed with data from several instruments providing atmospheric profiles and can be characterised by low moisture and dispersed mineral dust. The investigation suggests a suppression of vertical cloud development by the SAL, also affecting microphysical properties of the cloud.
Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Marit Sandstad, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Norman J. Steinert, Thomas Gasser, Camilla Mathison, Jarmo Kikstra, Thomas J. Aubry, Katsumasa Tanaka, Konstantin Weber, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 7111–7133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7111-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7111-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Reduced-complexity models are an important tool in climate science, helping us understand and estimate future climate change. We present the experimental protocol for the next phase of the reduced-complexity model intercomparison project, which aims to compare results from many such models to better understand their behaviour. This knowledge will guide how these models are developed and used in the future, including in the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (AR7).
Sajedeh Marjani, Sina Mehrdad, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 10695–10725, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-10695-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-10695-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
A large part of aviation's climate impact comes from persistent contrails, not just carbon dioxide. This study examined how they evolve under different ice-supersaturated conditions, usually with background clouds. Using high-resolution simulations, we found that contrail growth depends on both the thickness of the supersaturated layer and available water vapor. Contrails can alter surrounding clouds and contribute to warming. Simple thresholds are not enough to predict their impact.
Patrick C. Taylor, Armin Sorooshian, Rei Ueyama, Sebastian Schmidt, Ihab Abboud, Quincy Allison, Kevin Barry, Sebastian Becker, Holly A. Bender, Joseph R. Bennett, James B. Blair, Niklas Bohn, Linette Boisvert, Matthew D. Brown, Roelof Bruintjes, Anthony Bucholtz, Megan Buzanowicz, Brian Cairns, Filippo Calì Quaglia, Eduard Chemyakin, Bo Chen, Gao Chen, Hong Chen, Yu-Wen Chen, Zezhen Cheng, Swarup China, Dan Chirica, Yonghoon Choi, Peter Colarco, Brian Collister, Ewan Crosbie, Maurice J. Cross, Janet Daniels, Paul DeMott, Joshua P. DiGangi, Alcide Giorgio di Sarra, Glenn S. Diskin, Erica K. Dolinar, Eva-Lou Edwards, Samuel Ephraim, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Romanos Foskinis, Francesca Gallo, Lan Gao, José Luis Gómez-Amo, Daisy Gonzalez, Christine Groot Zwaaftink, Pawan Gupta, Ivan Heckman, Michael Hendrickson, Miguel Ricardo A. Hilario, Ken Hirata, Michelle Hofton, Andrew L. Holen, Ulas Im, Alia L. Khan, Ralph Kahn, Alexei V. Korolev, Sonia Kreidenweis, Thomas Krumpen, Nathan Kurtz, Leslie Lait, Bradley Lamkin, Jack Landy, Nurun Nahar Lata, Paul Lawson, Samuel LeBlanc, Sean Leavor, Jing Li, Thorsten Markus, Hal Maring, Andreas H. Massling, Camille Mavis, Flynn McGinnity, Kerry Meyer, Gabriel Mojica, Richard H. Moore, Parker Morris, Giovanni Muscari, Vikas Nataraja, Amin R. Nehrir, Athanasios Nenes, Edward P. Nowottnick, Matteo Ottaviani, Chelsea Parker, Ryan Patnaude, Michael Perez, Russell J. Perkins, Colten Peterson, Alek Petty, Stevie Phothisane, Chris Polashenski, Kerri A. Pratt, Kayla M. Preisler, John Prytherch, David Rabine, Jens Redemann, Ju-Mee Ryoo, Joseph S. Schlosser, Vanessa Selimovic, Michael A. Shook, Morgan Silverman, Henrik Skov, Alexander Smirnov, Cassidy Soloff, Amy Solomon, Snorre Stamnes, Azusa Takeishi, David R. Thompson, K. Lee Thornhill, Rachel Tilling, Michael Tjernström, Monica Tosco, Pedro C. Valdelomar, David Van Gilst, Jian Wang, Zhien Wang, Andrzej Wasilewski, Manfred Wendisch, Brent Wilder, Edward L. Winstead, Albert Wu, Peng Xian, Lauren M. Zamora, Jiaoshi Zhang, Lei Zhang, Lu Zhang, Luke Ziemba, and Paquita Zuidema
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-241, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-241, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This article summarizes the data sets collected during the Arctic Radiation Cloud aerosol Sea ice Interaction eXperiment (ARCSIX), NASA's most comprehensive Arctic field campaign to date. The overarching goal was to quantify the contributions of surface, clouds, aerosol particles, and precipitation to summer sea ice melt. This paper describes the ARCSIX implementation including the flight strategy, instruments, complementary data sets, access, and usage details.
Cristina Deidda, Arpita Asha Khanna, Wolfgang Schade, Chris Smith, and Wim Thiery
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3345–3394, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3345-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3345-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Climate extremes like floods, heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires are disrupting Europe’s transport. This study combines a review of past events and future projections to assess current losses and the future exposure of transport infrastructure. Exposure to extremes is projected to rise, but lower emissions can reduce it. Urgent action is needed to reduce emissions and adapt the Trans-European Transport Network to a changing climate.
Hans Segura, Allison A. Wing, Heike Kalesse-Los, Ruben Carrasco, James H. Ruppert Jr., Anna Trosits, Louise Nuijens, Felix Ament, Daniel Blandfort, Michael M. Bell, Pierre Bosser, Delián Colón-Burgos, Geet George, Joelle Habib, Jochen Horstmann, Friedhelm Jansen, Lukas Kluft, Robert Kopte, Klas Ove Möller, Peristera Paschou, Hauke Schmidt, Michael Schlundt, Ilya Serikov, Martin Stelzner, Elizabeth J. Thompson, Werenfrid Wimmer, Marcus Dengler, and Daniel Klocke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-343, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-343, 2026
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
BOWTIE (Beobachtung von Ozean und Wolken - Das Trans ITCZ Experiment) was an observational campaign occurring in summer 2024, which intensively took measurements from the upper ocean to the upper troposphere in the wettest region of the tropical Atlantic. Here, we provide an overview of the measurements and instrumentation, including remote sensing and conventional, which targeted small-scale processes under different weather regimes, from calm doldrums to gusty, precipitating events.
Hailing Jia, David Neubauer, Yusuf Bhatti, Duncan Watson-Parris, Philip Stier, Johannes Quaas, Daniel Partridge, Ardit Arifi, Anne Kubin, Athanasios Nenes, Muhammed Irfan, Ulas Im, Carl Svenhag, Nick Schutgens, Bastiaan van Diedenhoven, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Ulrike Lohmann, Ina Tegen, Alice Henkes, Guangliang Fu, and Otto Hasekamp
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3275, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Tiny aerosol particles affect Earth’s climate by interacting with clouds and sunlight, but their impact remains uncertain. Combining climate model simulations and emulators, we explored millions of model variants across different aerosol and cloud settings to identify the causes of the uncertainty. We found that aerosol emissions and cloud convection are key contributors. Our work suggests that better integration of existing observations could help reduce these uncertainties in the future.
Christoph Jacobi, Ales Kuchar, Manfred Ern, Toralf Renkwitz, Ralph Latteck, and Jorge L. Chau
Adv. Radio Sci., 24, 15–28, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-24-15-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-24-15-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Analyses of more than four decades (1979–2024) of mean horizontal winds in the mesopause region at about 90 km altitude show long-term trends and an influence of the 11-year solar cycle. After the 1990s, both linear trends and the solar cycle effect change and strongly weaken, indicating a change in dynamics or solar forcing. Gravity wave proxies also show a solar cycle effect, which decreases after the 1990s.
Adakudlu Muralidhar, Cecilie Mauritzen, Christopher D. Wells, Benjamin Blanz, William Schoenberg, Beniamino Callegari, Jannes Breier, Jefferson K. Rajah, Lennart Ramme, Andreas Nicolaidis Lindqvist, Alexandre C. Köberle, Axel E. Eriksson, and Chris Smith
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3072, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3072, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Using the integrated assessment model FRIDA v2.1, we examine how climate impacts spread through interconnected human and Earth systems, including the economy, energy, food, water, finance, and behaviour. We find that interacting climate impacts can reduce economic growth strongly than models assuming isolated effects. Financial feedbacks are especially important, and nonlinear climate–society interactions can amplify risks across sectors even without explicit climate tipping points.
Chris Smith, Lennart Ramme, Christopher D. Wells, Ada Gjermundsen, Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Adakudlu Muralidhar, Timothée Bourgeois, Jörg Schwinger, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Chao Li, and Cecilie Mauritzen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 893–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-893-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-893-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We run two Earth System Models models in CO2 emissions-driven mode to 2300 for three climate scenarios. For climate overshoot scenarios, there is a large residual warming in the 22nd century in one model, despite negative CO2 emissions, related to Southern Ocean heat release. In both models, while global mean surface temperature is largely reversible, other global and regional climate models exhibit hysteresis and irreversibility.
Aymeric Dziduch, Antoine Baudoux, Guillaume Mioche, Antoine Canzi, Benjamin Doiteau, Manuel Moser, Emma Järvinen, Étienne Vignon, Jean-Christophe Raut, Régis Dupuy, Christophe Gourbeyre, Jean-Luc Baray, Marie Monier, Frédéric Szczap, Guillaume Penide, Julien Delanoë, Odran Sourdeval, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Stephan Mertes, Franz Martin Schnaiter, Christiane Voigt, Mario Mech, Susanne Crewell, Andreas Herber, Christof Lüpkes, André Ehrlich, Manfred Wendisch, and Olivier Jourdan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3265, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the microphysical properties and ice crystal habits of low-level Arctic mixed-phase clouds around Svalbard. Using airborne in situ observations from four campaigns, we show that cloud microphysical structure and ice crystal habits are influenced by weather conditions and surface type. These results provide quantitative observations to better understand low-level Arctic clouds, their ice formation processes, and their influence on the Arctic atmosphere and climate system.
Silke Groß, Florian Ewald, Bjorn Stevens, Martin Wirth, Georgios Dekoutsidis, André Ehrlich, Dimitra Kouklaki, Konstantin Krüger, Sophie Rosenburg, Lea Volkmer, Jonas von Bismark, Lutz Hirsch, Anna E. Luebke, Eleni Marinou, Bernhard Mayer, Montserrat Pinol Sole, Manfred Wendisch, Julia Windmiller, Vassilis Amiridis, Rob Koopman, Takuji Kubota, and Markus Rapp
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 3933–3959, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-3933-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-3933-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
In May 2024 the joint European Space Agency (ESA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) mission EarthCARE was launched. A similar payload as on the satellite was set up on the German research aircraft HALO, and deployed during an extensive measurement campaign to validated the satellite. We present our instrumentation, the measurements, and its potential for the validation of EarthCARE. We show first validation results and assessments of the EarthCARE data quality.
Tobias Braun, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Norbert Marwan, Juergen Kurths, Johannes Quaas, Albert Díaz-Guilera, Luis Gimeno, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 695–716, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-695-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-695-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) move vast amounts of water through the atmosphere and often cause weather extremes, yet they are usually studied as regional events. Using 84 years of mapped AR trajectories, we reveal the global "roadmap" of ARs, a transport network of high-activity hubs, sparse atmospheric highways & hierarchical basins. Our approach shows how water vapor is systematically channelled through an atmospheric transport network, offering new ways to study changes in the global water cycle.
Piers M. Forster, Tristram Walsh, Chris Smith, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie M. Andrew, Chris Atkinson, Richard A. Betts, Antonio Bombelli, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Helen E. Claxton, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas L. Frölicher, Catia M. Domingues, Thomas Gasser, Catherine H. Gregory, Rachel M. Hoesly, Daniel Huppmann, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, Alexia Karwat, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Jean-François Lamarque, Aurélien Liné, Belén Martín-Míguez, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Pino Mussak, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Steven J. Smith, Ghassan Taha, Caterina Tassone, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Marco Zecchetto, Junting Zhong, Xiao-Ye Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We give our annual update of key climate indicators. Our work quantifies the human contribution to global warming and the pace of climate change. This represents a large effort by the international community akin to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Sudhakar Dipu, Johannes Mülmenstädt, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 7917–7931, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7917-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7917-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) are used to examine how aerosols affect liquid water path (LWP) sensitivity in non-precipitating liquid clouds. Two cases, 1985 (high aerosol) and 2013 (low aerosol), show a non-linear Nd–LWP relationship with a shift from positive to negative sensitivity at higher Nd under high aerosol loading. Enhanced cloud-top entrainment, evaporation, and heating drive this shift, highlighting aerosol impact on cloud microphysics and thermodynamics.
Rebecca McPherson, Wilken-Jon von Appen, Laura de Steur, Luise Becker, Monica Ionita, Thomas Krumpen, Gunnar Spreen, and Finn Ole Heukamp
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2955, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The East Greenland Current carries cold, fresh water and sea ice from the Arctic toward the North Atlantic. Using seven years of ocean measurements off northeast Greenland, we found that the current occasionally develops a northward component on the continental slope that can persist for weeks. These events are driven by specific wind patterns that reorganise the current and push warm water into the Arctic — a previously unknown heat pathway, which has regional consequences for sea ice.
Michael Gregory Windisch, Yann Quilcaille, Camilla Mathison, Claudia Tebaldi, Eleanor Burke, Laila Gohar, Chris Smith, Sarah Schöngart, Abigail Snyder, Siddarth Durga, Kalyn Dorheim, and Sonia Seneviratne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2253, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Creating consistent climate scenarios remains challenging. The computational cost of comprehensive climate models leaves most scenarios without spatial climate outcomes, limiting feedback between climate consequences and scenario assumptions. We apply three spatial emulators to test their potential and current limitations in rapidly translating scenarios into spatial outcomes to identify regional risks, fill gaps in scenario coverage, and feed climate consequences back into scenario assumptions.
Ryan J. Kramer, Chris Smith, and Timothy Andrews
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 4447–4466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4447-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4447-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Natural or anthropogenic activities can cause a perturbation in Earth's radiative energy budget known as a radiative forcing, which induces a climate response. Diagnosing radiative forcing and its uncertainty is foundational to understanding past and future climate change. Here we outline the protocol for the second iteration of the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP2.0), which provides a standardized method for diagnosing radiative forcing across Global Climate Models.
Alexander Mchedlishvili, Marco Vountas, and Hartmut Bösch
The Cryosphere, 20, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2895-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2895-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Air circulation over Greenland affects ice melt by changing temperature, moisture, and wind. We study how much sunlight the ice reflects and how this relates to extreme melting. Focusing on the summers of 2012, 2019, and 2023, we explore the weather patterns that caused unusually warm conditions and how the Greenland ice sheet responded.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Marit Sandstad, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Stuart Jenkins, Charles Koven, Glen Peters, Roland Séfèrian, Andrew H. MacDougall, Ashwin Seshadri, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Abigail L. S. Swann, Torben Koenigk, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Hongmei Li, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Nadine Mengis, Anastasia Romanou, Lori T. Sentman, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1875, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
When humanity stops emitting carbon dioxide, will temperatures keep rising, stabilize, or fall? Our study reveals in most models, temperatures remain nearly stable, but this hides a balance between the warming in response to radiation imbalance, and the cooling due to uptake of carbon in the land and ocean. Understanding this balance helps refine how much more CO2 we can safely emit.
Joseph Hung, Penny M. Rowe, Christopher J. Cox, Emily M. McCullough, Liam Kroll, Raia Ottenheimer, Matthew D. Shupe, Von P. Walden, and Kimberly Strong
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1906, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models struggle to accurately represent polar regions largely due to challenges in modelling clouds. In this article, we sampled clouds at Arctic and Antarctic field sites, and found that Antarctic clouds generally featured lower temperatures, smaller liquid droplets, and are thinner because they have a higher proportion of ice than Arctic clouds. This knowledge improves our ability to monitor remote regions, and serves to improve our understanding of cloud processes.
David J. Simon, Jonas Schaefer, Jörg Hartmann, Benjamin Kirbus, Joshua Müller, Markus Hartmann, Bruno Wetzel, Laura Köhler, Anna-Marie Jörss, Kay Weinhold, Andreas Herber, Zsófia Jurányi, Silvia Henning, Gregory C. Roberts, Manfred Wendisch, Mira L. Pöhlker, and Frank Stratmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2215, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2215, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the occurrence of newly formed aerosol particles in the Arctic atmosphere by analyzing aerosol particle measurements conducted aboard a research aircraft in April 2024. We frequently detected newly formed particles at altitudes of up to 4 km, while many previous studies had predominantly found such particles close to the surface. Newly formed particles were associated with air mass transport from lower latitudes, the occurrence of clouds, as well as the presence of sea ice.
Sebastian Becker, Konrad Sebastian Schmidt, Hong Chen, Yu-Wen Chen, Kerry G. Meyer, Colten A. Peterson, and Manfred Wendisch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2210, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The melt of Arctic sea ice depends on the radiation budget at the surface, which is largely controlled by the presence of clouds. This cloud radiative effect depends on both cloud properties and surface reflection. Comparing cloud properties from a satellite retrieval and surface reflection data assumed for this retrieval to aircraft measurements, it is found that the assumed surface reflection is too low, leading to a cooling effect of clouds on the surface although a warming effect is present.
Jonas Witthuhn, Hartwig Deneke, Andreas Macke, Oscar Ritter, Jens Redemann, Connor J. Flynn, Abdulamid A. Fakoya, Bradley F. Lamkin, Emily D. Lenhardt, Logan T. Mitchell, Emily K. West, David M. Romps, Rusen Öktem, and Heike Kalesse-Los
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 5727–5745, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5727-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5727-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how solar irradiance changes when sunlight passes from clear sky into cloud shadows, focusing on 3‑D radiative effects of shallow cumulus clouds. Using data from a dense pyranometer network and cloud masks from cameras we found that irradiance can rise up to 20 % above clear‑sky levels near cloud edges. Key drivers include sun‑cloud geometry and microphysical cloud properties. The results highlight the need to incorporate such 3‑D effects in atmospheric models.
Julien Lenhardt, Johannes Quaas, Dino Sejdinovic, and Daniel Klocke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 5447–5475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5447-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5447-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds come in various shapes and sizes and constitute a fundamental element of the Earth's climate system. Different cloud types show variable impacts on climate change. We present a new cloud type classification method called CloudViT (Cloud Vision Transformer) relying on spatial patterns of cloud properties obtained from satellite data using machine learning. We can thus help understanding the effects of different cloud types on climate change.
Henning Dorff, Holger Siebert, Komal Navale, André Ehrlich, Joshua Müller, Michael Schäfer, Fan Wu, and Manfred Wendisch
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 2799–2817, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2799-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2799-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We present tethered-balloon measurements from BELUGA (Balloon-bornE moduLar Utility for profilinG the lower Atmosphere) at Villum Research Station (spring 2024), detailing instrumentation, data processing, and environmental conditions. The data stored in the PANGAEA database include instrument-separated subsets with frequent in situ profiling of thermodynamic, turbulence conditions, and thermal-infrared irradiances across the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), supplemented by radiosondes. The data help examine transition events between Arctic ABL states.
William F. Lamb, Robbie M. Andrew, Matthew Jones, Zebedee Nicholls, Glen P. Peters, Chris Smith, Marielle Saunois, Giacomo Grassi, Julia Pongratz, Steven J. Smith, Francesco N. Tubiello, Monica Crippa, Matthew Gidden, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jan Minx, and Piers M. Forster
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 2549–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2549-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2549-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores why global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates vary. Key reasons include different coverage of gases and sectors, varying definitions of anthropogenic land use change emissions, and the Paris Agreement not covering all emission sources. The study highlights three main ways emissions data is reported, each with different objectives and resulting in varying global emission totals. It emphasizes the need for transparency in choosing datasets and setting assessment scopes.
Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Brian C. O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Louise P. Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh M. N. Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew J. Gidden, Laila K. Gohar, Annika Högner, Andrew D. Jones, Jarmo Kikstra, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camilla Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Zebedee Nicholls, Luciana F. Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven K. Rose, Alex C. Ruane, Marit Sandstad, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna A. Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha S. Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, Marco Zecchetto, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2627–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a set of seven plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Jean Lac, Hélène Chepfer, Matthew D. Shupe, and Hannes Griesche
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 4189–4213, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4189-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4189-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations show that Arctic spring experiences a rapid increase in liquid-containing clouds over sea ice. Our study shows that this transition is mostly driven by warmer temperatures in early spring than in late spring, favoring more liquid clouds formation, rather than a limited moisture source in early spring. It suggests that, in the future, this transition is likely to occur earlier in spring considering the rapid Arctic warming.
Ferran Hernández-Macià, Marcus Huntemann, Carolina Gabarró, Gunnar Spreen, and Randall K. Scharien
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1336, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1336, 2026
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Radiometric low-frequency microwave measurements collected in the Canadian Arctic are used to evaluate how well different models reproduce the emission of snow-covered sea ice. Standard models assume that radiation from different layers does not interfere, but the in situ observations can only be explained when interference effects are included. The results show that this coherent approach reproduces the measurements better, highlighting an effect often neglected in current approaches.
Anna Weber, Benjamin Kirbus, Manfred Wendisch, and Bernhard Mayer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 3521–3540, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3521-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3521-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Macrophysical and microphysical properties of clouds and their evolution during the initial phase of marine cold air outbreaks in the Arctic are studied with a focus on cloud thermodynamic phase partitioning and phase transitions. To this end, high-resolution quasi-Lagrangian observations of the hyperspectral and polarized imaging system specMACS during the HALO-(AC)3 campaign are combined with backward trajectories. Six cold air outbreaks with varying strengths are analyzed and compared.
Sina Mehrdad, Sajedeh Marjani, Dörthe Handorf, and Christoph Jacobi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 3391–3415, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3391-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3391-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how strong wind disturbances caused by mountains can disturb the polar vortex, a large pool of cold air high above the North Pole. Using simulations, we boosted these wind disturbances over the Himalayas, North America, and East Asia. We found they can shift, weaken, and mix the vortex in different ways depending on the region. This helps explain how mountains influence the upper atmosphere and improve forecasts of extreme cold weather at the surface.
Anton Kötsche, Maximilian Maahn, Veronika Ettrichrätz, and Heike Kalesse-Los
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 3277–3297, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3277-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3277-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how turbulence affects snowfall in the Colorado Rockies, focusing on a turbulent layer behind Gothic Mountain. Using radar and surface observations, we found turbulence enhances snow growth by causing snowflakes to stick and form extra ice via collisions. Liquid water at cold temperatures further boosts snow formation. This work shows how turbulence shapes mountain snowfall and demonstrates radar-based methods to study precipitation processes.
Peggy Achtert, Torsten Seelig, Gabriella Wallentin, Luisa Ickes, Matthew D. Shupe, Corinna Hoose, and Matthias Tesche
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 3049–3068, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3049-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3049-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the occurrence of single- and multi-layer clouds in the Arctic based on combining soundings with cloud-radar observations. We also assess the rate of ice-crystal seeding in multi-layer cloud systems as this is an important initiator of glaciation in super-cooled liquid cloud layers. We find an abundance of multi-layer clouds in the Arctic with seeding in about half to two thirds of cases in which the gap between upper and lower layers ranges between 100 and 1000 m.
Christopher D. Wells, Lennart Ramme, Chris Smith, Jannes Breier, Adakudlu Muralidhar, Chao Li, Ada Gjermundsen, William Alexander Schoenberg, Benjamin Blanz, and Cecilie Mauritzen
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1429–1453, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1429-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1429-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the change in climate that would occur under different future pathways of greenhouse gas emissions and changes in land use is crucial. Here, we develop a new simple climate model to help study this. We reduce the number of inputs so that our model can be connected to a model of the human causes of climate change. This way, we can study the interaction between climate change and society, including climate impacts. Our model broadly agrees with historical observations.
Christopher D. Wells, Benjamin Blanz, Lennart Ramme, Jannes Breier, Beniamino Callegari, Adakudlu Muralidhar, Jefferson K. Rajah, Andreas Nicolaidis Lindqvist, Axel E. Eriksson, William Alexander Schoenberg, Alexandre C. Köberle, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Cecilie Mauritzen, Martin B. Grimeland, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1229–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1229-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1229-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models built to study future developments of human activity and climate change often exclude the impacts of climate change. Here, we include these effects in a new model. We create functions connecting changes in global temperature, carbon dioxide, and sea level to energy supply and demand, food systems, mortality, economic damages, and other important quantities. Including these effects will allow us to explore their impact on future changes in the human and climate realms.
Manuel Moser, Christiane Voigt, Oliver Eppers, Johannes Lucke, Elena De La Torre Castro, Johanna Mayer, Regis Dupuy, Guillaume Mioche, Olivier Jourdan, Hans-Christian Clemen, Johannes Schneider, Philipp Joppe, Stephan Mertes, Bruno Wetzel, Stephan Borrmann, Marcus Klingebiel, Mario Mech, Christof Lüpkes, Susanne Crewell, André Ehrlich, Andreas Herber, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 1867–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-1867-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-1867-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyzed Arctic mixed-phase clouds using airborne in-situ measurements in spring 2022. Based on microphysical properties, we show that within these clouds a distinction must be made between classic mixed-phase clouds and a mixed-phase haze regime. Instead of supercooled droplets, the haze regime contains large wet sea salt aerosols. These findings improve our understanding of Arctic low-level cloud processes.
Peter W. Thorne, John M. Nicklas, John J. Kennedy, Bruce Calvert, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Mark T. Richardson, Adrian Simmons, Ed Hawkins, Robert Rhode, Kathryn Cowtan, Nerilie J. Abram, Axel Andersson, Simon Noone, Phillipe Marbaix, Nathan Lenssen, Dirk Olonscheck, Tristram Walsh, Stephen Outten, Ingo Bethke, Bjorn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Anna Pirani, Jan Fuglestvedt, Lavanya Rajamani, Richard A. Betts, Elizabeth C. Kent, Blair Trewin, Colin Morice, Tim Osborn, Samantha N. Burgess, Oliver Geden, Andrew Parnell, Piers M. Forster, Chris Hewitt, Zeke Hausfather, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Jochem Marotzke, Nathan Gillett, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Gavin A. Schmidt, Duo Chan, Stefan Brönnimann, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Menne, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Christopher Kadow, Peter Huybers, David B. Stephenson, Emily Wallis, Joeri Rogelj, Andrew Schurer, Karen McKinnon, Panmao Zhai, Fatima Driouech, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Saeed Vazifehkhah, Sophie Szopa, Christopher J. Merchant, Shoji Hirahara, Masayoshi Ishii, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Qingxiang Li, June-Yi Lee, Alex J. Cannon, Christophe Cassou, Karina von Schuckmann, Amir H. Delju, and Ellie Murtagh
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, 2026
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We reassess the basis for determining the present level of long-term global warming. Unbiased estimates of both realised warming and anthropogenic warming are possible that approximate a 20-year retrospective mean. Our resulting estimates of 1.40 [1.23–1.58] °C (realised) and 1.34 [1.18–1.50] °C (anthropogenic) as at end of 2024 highlight the urgency of immediate, far-reaching and sustained climate mitigation actions if we are to meet the long term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
Timothy W. Juliano, Florian Tornow, Ann M. Fridlind, Andrew S. Ackerman, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Bart Geerts, Christian P. Lackner, David Painemal, Israel Silber, Mikhail Ovchinnikov, Gunilla Svensson, Michael Tjernström, Peng Wu, Alejandro Baró Pérez, Peter Bogenschutz, Dmitry Chechin, Kamal Kant Chandrakar, Jan Chylik, Andrey Debolskiy, Rostislav Fadeev, Anu Gupta, Luisa Ickes, Michail Karalis, Martin Köhler, Branko Kosović, Peter Kuma, Weiwei Li, Evgeny Mortikov, Hugh Morrison, Roel A. J. Neggers, Anna Possner, Tomi Raatikainen, Sami Romakkaniemi, Niklas Schnierstein, Shin-ichiro Shima, Nikita Silin, Mikhail Tolstykh, Lulin Xue, Meng Zhang, and Xue Zheng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6217, 2026
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Models struggle to capture cloud and precipitation processes and their radiative effects in marine cold-air outbreaks. We use a quasi-Lagrangian framework to compare large-eddy simulation (LES) and single-column model (SCM) output with field and satellite observations. With fixed droplet and ice numbers, LES and SCM agree in liquid-only tests. In mixed-phase conditions, LES plausibly capture cloud thinning and breakup, while SCMs largely remain overcast and thereby miss cloud radiative effects.
Simon Laffoy, Marco Vountas, Linlu Mei, and Hartmut Bösch
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 293–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-293-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-293-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol are particles in the atmosphere such as dust, salt, soot and sulfates. They may be measured by applying algorithms to satellite images of the Earth. We attempt to apply data from the new Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program (EnMAP) satellite to the existing XBAER algorithm, which was previously applied to data from the Ocean Land and Colour Instrument (OLCI) satellite. This paper compares the satellite inputs and aerosol outputs of the XBAER algorithm and finds good results.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Susanne Baur, Carl-Freidrich Schleussner, Glen P. Peters, Shivika Mittal, Marit Sandstad, Steffen Kallbekken, Chris Smith, Sabine Fuss, Bas van Ruijven, Rosie A. Fisher, Joeri Rogelj, Roland Séférian, Bjørn Samset, Norman J. Steinert, Laurent Terray, and Jan Fuglestvedt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-28, 2026
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Solar Radiation Modification by adding aerosols to the stratosphere could rapidly and temporarily cool the Earth, but this speed creates unprecedented risks. Fast climate responses coupled with political instability create risks of failure to decarbonise, super-rapid climate change, and conflict. Idealized scenarios or conventional modeling tools could lead to systematic ignorance of these risks. We thus introduce a framework outlining what must be represented in future modeling and assessment.
Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Camilla Mathison, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 115–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-115-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-115-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Simple Climate Models (SCMs) are widely used tools to explore how Earth's climate may change in the future. In recent decades, the number and types of SCMs have increased significantly, hindering efforts to understand cross-model differences. In this study, we provide an overview of the main principles guiding climate simulation by SCMs, as well as a description of most high-profile SCMs. This work offers a clear reference to support the informed use of these important tools.
Johannes Max Müller, Oskar Andreas Landgren, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1895–1921, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1895-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1895-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Weather and climate is determined by large-scale air pressure patterns, which can be grouped into a small number of representative patterns. We use two different statistical methods and data from 20 climate models to detect significant changes in a future scenario of strong warming. We focus on the summer season as this is important for both human activities and natural ecosystems. We find an increase in high pressure above Europe and low pressure above the Arctic ocean.
Lennart Ramme, Benjamin Blanz, Christopher Wells, Tony E. Wong, William Schoenberg, Chris Smith, and Chao Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 10017–10052, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-10017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-10017-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present FRISIA version 1.0, a model for emulating sea level rise (SLR) and representing SLR impacts and adaptation in integrated assessment models (IAMs). FRISIA includes previously uncaptured coastal socio-economic feedback and a diverse set of impact strains, thereby improving the represenation of SLR impacts in IAMs. Here we describe the baseline behaviour of FRISIA, explore the effects of the additional feedback and showcase the coupling of FRISIA to an IAM.
Kevin Wolf, Evelyn Jäkel, André Ehrlich, Michael Schäfer, Hannes Feilhauer, Andreas Huth, and Manfred Wendisch
Biogeosciences, 22, 7797–7817, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7797-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7797-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents combined atmosphere-vegetation radiative transfer simulations to systematically investigate cloud-induced biases in remotely sensed vegetation indices (VIs) derived from below-cloud measurements. The biases in VIs have been investigated for the general case of two-band VIs, and for the special cases of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalized difference water index (NDWI), and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI).
Jianqi Zhao, Xiaoyan Ma, Johannes Quaas, and Tong Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 17701–17723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17701-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17701-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with spectral bin microphysics to investigate how meteorological conditions impact aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) under different pollution regimes. Our findings highlight the changes in aerosol effects on clouds and precipitation under varying thermodynamic conditions, as well as the sensitivity of ACI to meteorological conditions under different pollution regimes, which help to clarify the mechanisms behind the nonlinear variation of ACI with environmental conditions.
Kevin Ohneiser, Patric Seifert, Willi Schimmel, Fabian Senf, Tom Gaudek, Martin Radenz, Audrey Teisseire, Veronika Ettrichrätz, Teresa Vogl, Nina Maherndl, Nils Pfeifer, Jan Henneberger, Anna J. Miller, Nadja Omanovic, Christopher Fuchs, Huiying Zhang, Fabiola Ramelli, Robert Spirig, Anton Kötsche, Heike Kalesse-Los, Maximilian Maahn, Heather Corden, Alexis Berne, Majid Hajipour, Hannes Griesche, Julian Hofer, Ronny Engelmann, Annett Skupin, Albert Ansmann, and Holger Baars
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 17363–17386, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17363-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17363-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on a seeder-feeder cloud system on 8 Jan 2024 in Eriswil, Switzerland. It is shown how the interaction of these cloud systems changes the cloud microphysical properties and the precipitation patterns. A big set of advanced remote-sensing techniques and retrieval algorithms are applied, so that a detailed view on the seeder-feeder cloud system is available. The gained knowledge can be used to improve weather models and weather forecasts.
Sina Mehrdad, Sajedeh Marjani, Dörthe Handorf, and Christoph Jacobi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1491–1514, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1491-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1491-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Wind flowing over mountains creates wave-like patterns aloft that can influence the atmosphere higher up in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In this study, we intensified these waves over specific regions like the Himalayas and Rocky Mountains and examined the resulting climate effects. We found that this can shift global wind patterns and even impact extreme events near the poles, showing how small regional changes in stratospheric wind patterns can influence the broader climate system.
Andrew M. Sayer, Brian Cairns, Kirk D. Knobelspiesse, Luca Lelli, Chamara Rajapakshe, Scott E. Giangrande, Gareth E. Thomas, and Damao Zhang
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 6681–6703, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-6681-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-6681-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Satellites can estimate cloud height in several ways: two include a thermal technique (colder clouds being higher up), and another looking at colours of light that oxygen in the atmosphere absorbs (darker clouds being lower down). It can also be measured (from ground or space) by radar and lidar. We compare satellite data we developed using the oxygen method with other estimates to help us refine our technique.
Manfred Wendisch, Benjamin Kirbus, Davide Ori, Matthew D. Shupe, Susanne Crewell, Harald Sodemann, and Vera Schemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 15047–15076, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-15047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-15047-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Aircraft observations of air parcels moving into and out of the Arctic are reported. From the data, heating and cooling as well as drying and moistening of the air masses along their way into and out of the Arctic could be measured for the first time. These data are used to evaluate if weather prediction models are able to accurately represent these air mass transformations. This work helps to model the future Arctic climate changes, which may have an impact for mid-latitude weather as well.
William Schoenberg, Benjamin Blanz, Jefferson K. Rajah, Beniamino Callegari, Christopher Wells, Jannes Breier, Martin B. Grimeland, Andreas Nicolaidis Lindqvist, Lennart Ramme, Chris Smith, Chao Li, Sarah Mashhadi, Adakudlu Muralidhar, and Cecilie Mauritzen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8047–8069, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8047-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The current crop of models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce their assessment reports lack endogenous process-based representations of climate-driven changes to human activities, limiting understanding of the feedback between climate and humans. FRIDA (Feedback-based knowledge Repository for IntegrateD Assessments) v2.1 integrates these systems and generate results that suggest standard scenarios the shared socioeconomic pathways baseline scenarios may overestimate economic growth, highlighting the importance of feedbacks for realistic projections and informed policymaking.
Anton Kötsche, Alexander Myagkov, Leonie von Terzi, Maximilian Maahn, Veronika Ettrichrätz, Teresa Vogl, Alexander Ryzhkov, Petar Bukovcic, Davide Ori, and Heike Kalesse-Los
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 14045–14070, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14045-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14045-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study combines radar observations of snow with snowfall camera observations on the ground to enhance our understanding of radar variables and snowfall properties. We found that values of an important radar variable (KDP) can be related to many different snow particle properties and number concentrations. We were able to constrain which particle sizes contribute to KDP by using computer models of snowflakes and showed which microphysical processes during snow formation can influence KDP.
Michail Karalis, Gunilla Svensson, Manfred Wendisch, and Michael Tjernström
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 13177–13198, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13177-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13177-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During the spring warm-air intrusion captured by HALO-(𝒜𝒞)3, the air mass demonstrated a column-like structure. We built a Lagrangian modeling framework using a single-column model (AOSCM) to simulate the air mass transformation. Comparing to observations, reanalysis, and forecast data, we found that the Lagrangian AOSCM can successfully reproduce the main features of the transformation. The Lagrangian AOSCM can be used for future model development to improve Arctic weather and climate prediction.
Karl Kortum, Suman Singha, and Gunnar Spreen
The Cryosphere, 19, 4701–4714, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4701-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4701-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Improved sea ice observations are essential to understanding the processes that lead to the strong warming effect currently being observed in the Arctic. In this work, we combine complementary satellite measurement techniques and find remarkable correlations between the two observations. This allows us to expand the coverage of ice topography measurements to a scope and resolution that could not previously be observed.
J. Federico Conte, Jorge L. Chau, Toralf Renkwitz, Ralph Latteck, Masaki Tsutsumi, Christoph Jacobi, Njål Gulbrandsen, and Satonori Nozawa
Ann. Geophys., 43, 603–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-43-603-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-43-603-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Analysis of 10 years of continuous measurements provided MMARIA/SIMONe Norway and MMARIA/SIMONe Germany reveals that the divergent and vortical motions in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere exchange the dominant role depending on the height and the time of the year. At summer mesopause altitudes over middle latitudes, the horizontal divergence and the relative vorticity contribute approximately the same, indicating an energetic balance between mesoscale divergent and vortical motions.
Cristofer Jimenez, Albert Ansmann, Kevin Ohneiser, Hannes Griesche, Ronny Engelmann, Martin Radenz, Julian Hofer, Dietrich Althausen, Daniel A. Knopf, Sandro Dahlke, Johannes Bühl, Holger Baars, Patric Seifert, and Ulla Wandinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 12955–12981, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12955-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12955-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the water and ice phases of Arctic mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) using dual FOV polarization lidar and Doppler radar on board Polarstern during the MOSAiC expedition. Two long-lasting Arctic MPCs and year-round statistics show persistent droplet activation and dominant immersion freezing, indicating well-filled cloud condensation nuclei and ice-nucleating particle reservoirs. These findings help explain MPC longevity and may improve cloud life cycle representation in weather and climate models.
Magali Verkerk, Thomas J. Aubry, Chris Smith, Peter O. Hopcroft, Michael Sigl, Jessica E. Tierney, Kevin Anchukaitis, Matthew Osman, Anja Schmidt, and Matthew Toohey
Clim. Past, 21, 1755–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1755-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1755-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions can trigger global cooling, affecting human societies. Using ice-core records and simple climate model to simulate volcanic effect over the last 8500 years, we show that volcanic eruptions cool the climate by 0.12 °C on average. By comparing model results with temperature recorded by tree rings over the last 1000 years, we demonstrate that our models can predict the large-scale cooling caused by volcanic eruptions and can be used in cases of large eruptions in the future.
Lexie Goldberger, Maxwell Levin, Carlandra Harris, Andrew Geiss, Matthew D. Shupe, and Damao Zhang
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 5393–5414, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-5393-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-5393-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study leverages machine learning models to classify cloud thermodynamic phases using multi-sensor remote sensing data collected at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement North Slope of Alaska observatory. We evaluate model performance, feature importance, and application of the model to another observatory and quantify how the models respond to instrument outages.
Sebastian Becker, André Ehrlich, Michael Schäfer, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 12831–12842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12831-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12831-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds interact with solar radiation and can alter the surface temperature. The strength of this cloud impact is driven by cloud properties as well as solar elevation and surface reflection. As these dependencies are poorly represented in climate models, cloud, surface, and radiation observations are used to quantify the contributions of the drivers in the Arctic. It is shown that the weaker surface reflection dominates the stronger cooling effect of clouds over open ocean compared to sea ice.
Yugo Kanaya, Roberto Sommariva, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Andrea Mazzeo, Theodore K. Koenig, Kaori Kawana, James E. Johnson, Aurélie Colomb, Pierre Tulet, Suzie Molloy, Ian E. Galbally, Rainer Volkamer, Anoop Mahajan, John W. Halfacre, Paul B. Shepson, Julia Schmale, Hélène Angot, Byron Blomquist, Matthew D. Shupe, Detlev Helmig, Junsu Gil, Meehye Lee, Sean C. Coburn, Ivan Ortega, Gao Chen, James Lee, Kenneth C. Aikin, David D. Parrish, John S. Holloway, Thomas B. Ryerson, Ilana B. Pollack, Eric J. Williams, Brian M. Lerner, Andrew J. Weinheimer, Teresa Campos, Frank M. Flocke, J. Ryan Spackman, Ilann Bourgeois, Jeff Peischl, Chelsea R. Thompson, Ralf M. Staebler, Amir A. Aliabadi, Wanmin Gong, Roeland Van Malderen, Anne M. Thompson, Ryan M. Stauffer, Debra E. Kollonige, Juan Carlos Gómez Martin, Masatomo Fujiwara, Katie Read, Matthew Rowlinson, Keiichi Sato, Junichi Kurokawa, Yoko Iwamoto, Fumikazu Taketani, Hisahiro Takashima, Mónica Navarro-Comas, Marios Panagi, and Martin G. Schultz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4901–4932, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4901-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4901-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The first comprehensive dataset of tropospheric ozone over oceans/polar regions is presented, including 77 ship/buoy and 48 aircraft campaign observations (1977–2022, 0–5000 m altitude), supplemented by ozonesonde and surface data. Air masses isolated from land for 72+ hours are systematically selected as essentially oceanic. Among the 11 global regions, they show daytime decreases of 11–16 % in the tropics, while near-zero depletions are rare, unlike in the Arctic, implying different mechanisms.
Joshua J. Müller, Michael Schäfer, Sophie Rosenburg, André Ehrlich, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 4695–4708, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-4695-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-4695-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We retrieved high-resolution maps of Arctic surface temperature and type using an airborne thermal infrared imager during an Arctic aircraft campaign. Our study highlights small-scale surface variability, complementing satellite observations. Surface temperature was retrieved via radiative transfer simulations, while surface type was classified using machine learning. Additionally, we analysed segment sizes of each surface type, presenting results based on their distance from the sea-ice edge.
Hannah Niehaus, Gunnar Spreen, Larysa Istomina, and Marcel Nicolaus
The Cryosphere, 19, 3915–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3915-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3915-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Melt ponds on Arctic sea ice affect how much solar energy is absorbed, impacting Arctic warming and global climate. In this study satellite data (2017–2023) is used to examine how these ponds vary across regions and seasons. The results show that the surface fraction of melt ponds is more stable in the Central Arctic, with air temperature and surface roughness playing key roles in their formation. Understanding these patterns can help to improve climate models and predictions for Arctic warming.
Charlotte Lange and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 10337–10359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10337-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10337-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how the Earth’s climate system adjusts to sudden changes in the energy budget by analysing data of four climate models, which simulated a 4 % reduction in incoming solar energy. We found rapid cooling of the atmosphere and shifts in cloud cover and atmospheric circulation patterns like land–sea circulation. Our research helps to better understand cloud adjustments, which are a major source of uncertainty in climate models. This can improve future climate predictions.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew H. MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Isla R. Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5699–5724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining the understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation of emissions or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated the Zero Emissions Commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Marcus Klingebiel, André Ehrlich, Micha Gryschka, Nils Risse, Nina Maherndl, Imke Schirmacher, Sophie Rosenburg, Sabine Hörnig, Manuel Moser, Evelyn Jäkel, Michael Schäfer, Hartwig Deneke, Mario Mech, Christiane Voigt, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9787–9801, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9787-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9787-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study is using aircraft measurements from the HALO-(𝒜𝒞)³ campaign to investigate the transition from organized Arctic cloud street structures to more scattered clouds, which we call isotropic cloud patterns. We show that lower wind speeds cause this transition. In addition, we look at the changes in the cloud coverage, the height of the clouds, the cloud particles, and the radiative properties.
Guochun Shi, Hanli Liu, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Alexander Kozlovsky, Dimitry Pokhotelov, Mark Lester, Christoph Jacobi, Kun Wu, and Gunter Stober
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9403–9430, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9403-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Concerns about climate change are growing due to its widespread impacts, including rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and disruptions to ecosystems. To address these challenges, urgent global action is needed to monitor the distribution of trace gases and understand their effects on the atmosphere.
Ales Kuchar, Gunter Stober, Dimitry Pokhotelov, Huixin Liu, Han-Li Liu, Manfred Ern, Damian Murphy, Diego Janches, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, Nicholas Mitchell, and Christoph Jacobi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2827, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how the healing of the Antarctic ozone layer is affecting winds high above the South Pole. Using ground-based radar, satellite data, and computer models, we found that winds in the upper atmosphere have become stronger over the past two decades. These changes appear to be linked to shifts in the lower atmosphere caused by ozone recovery. Our results show that human efforts to repair the ozone layer are also influencing climate patterns far above Earth’s surface.
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael Prather, Alex Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Bjørn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Steven Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8289–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. We review its contribution to AR6 (Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify challenges and provide recommendations to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data, detailed summary tables of CMIP6 models, experiments, and emergent diagnostics.
Arthur Gauthier, Claudia Borries, Alexander Kozlovsky, Diego Janches, Peter Brown, Denis Vida, Christoph Jacobi, Damian Murphy, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Satonori Nozawa, Mark Lester, Johan Kero, Nicholas Mitchell, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, and Gunter Stober
Ann. Geophys., 43, 427–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-43-427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-43-427-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on a TIMED Doppler Interferometer (TIDI)–meteor radar (MR) comparison of zonal and meridional winds and their dependence on local time and latitude. The correlation calculation between TIDI wind measurements and MR winds shows good agreement. A TIDI–MR seasonal comparison and analysis of the altitude–latitude dependence for winds are performed. TIDI reproduces the mean circulation well when compared with MRs and may be a useful lower boundary for general circulation models.
Kerstin Ebell, Christian Buhren, Rosa Gierens, Giovanni Chellini, Melanie Lauer, Andreas Walbröl, Sandro Dahlke, Pavel Krobot, and Mario Mech
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7315–7342, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7315-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7315-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ground-based observations of precipitation are rare in the Arctic. Since 2017, additional temporally highly resolved precipitation measurements have been carried out by a precipitation gauge and an optical precipitation sensor at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. These new data facilitate the distinction between liquid and solid precipitation. Using reanalysis data, we also find that water vapor transport contributes strongly to precipitation and especially to extreme precipitation events.
Kevin Wolf, Evelyn Jäkel, André Ehrlich, Michael Schäfer, Hannes Feilhauer, Andreas Huth, Alexandra Weigelt, and Manfred Wendisch
Biogeosciences, 22, 2909–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2909-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2909-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reports an investigation of the influence of clouds on vegetation albedo using a coupled atmosphere–vegetation radiative transfer model. Both models are iteratively linked to simulate cloud–vegetation–radiation interactions over canopies more realistically. Solar, spectral, and broadband irradiances have been simulated under varying cloud conditions. The simulated irradiances were used to investigate the spectral and broadband effect of clouds on vegetation albedo.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, Robbie M. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catia M. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Jan C. Minx, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2641–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets to track real-world changes over time. To make our work relevant to policymakers, we follow methods from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the IPCC assessment.
Christoph Jacobi, Khalil Karami, Ales Kuchar, Manfred Ern, Toralf Renkwitz, Ralph Latteck, and Jorge L. Chau
Adv. Radio Sci., 23, 21–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-23-21-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-23-21-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Half-hourly mean winds have been obtained using ground-based low-frequency and very high frequency radio observations of the mesopause region at Collm, Germany, since 1984. Long-term changes of wind variances, which are proxies for short-period atmospheric gravity waves, have been analysed. Gravity wave amplitudes increase with time in winter, but mainly decrease in summer. The trends are consistent with mean wind changes according to wave theory.
Albert Ansmann, Cristofer Jimenez, Johanna Roschke, Johannes Bühl, Kevin Ohneiser, Ronny Engelmann, Martin Radenz, Hannes Griesche, Julian Hofer, Dietrich Althausen, Daniel A. Knopf, Sandro Dahlke, Tom Gaudek, Patric Seifert, and Ulla Wandinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4847–4866, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4847-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4847-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we focus on the potential impact of wildfire smoke on cirrus formation. For the first time, state-of-the-art aerosol and cirrus observations with lidar and radar, presented in this paper (Part 1 of a series of two articles), are closely linked to the comprehensive modeling of gravity-wave-induced ice nucleation in cirrus evolution processes, presented in a companion paper (Part 2). We found a clear impact of wildfire smoke on cirrus evolution.
Ulrike Stöffelmair, Thomas Popp, Marco Vountas, and Hartmut Bösch
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 2005–2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-2005-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-2005-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol composition has a large influence on the climate system. This study uses realistic simulated scenarios to look at the information content of a combination of three satellite-based instruments (SLSTR, IASI and GOME-2). It shows that it is possible to retrieve 6 to 15 different aerosol components in addition to the aerosol optical depth (AOD) and different surface parameters. The results are used for the development of a synergistic multi-sensor retrieval algorithm.
Christopher J. Cox, Janet M. Intrieri, Brian J. Butterworth, Gijs de Boer, Michael R. Gallagher, Jonathan Hamilton, Erik Hulm, Tilden Meyers, Sara M. Morris, Jackson Osborn, P. Ola G. Persson, Benjamin Schmatz, Matthew D. Shupe, and James M. Wilczak
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1481–1499, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1481-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1481-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Snow is an essential water resource in the intermountain western United States, and predictions are made using models. We made observations to validate, constrain, and develop the models. The data are from the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) campaign in Colorado's East River valley, 2021–2023. The measurements include meteorology and variables that quantify energy transfer between the atmosphere and surface. The data are available publicly.
Carola Barrientos-Velasco, Christopher J. Cox, Hartwig Deneke, J. Brant Dodson, Anja Hünerbein, Matthew D. Shupe, Patrick C. Taylor, and Andreas Macke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3929–3960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3929-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3929-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how clouds affect the climate, especially in the Arctic, is crucial. This study used data from the largest polar expedition in history, MOSAiC, and the CERES satellite to analyse the impact of clouds on radiation. Simulations showed accurate results, aligning with observations. Over the year, clouds caused the atmospheric surface system to lose 5.2 W m−² of radiative energy to space, while the surface gained 25 W m−² and the atmosphere cooled by 30.2 W m−².
Goutam Choudhury, Karoline Block, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Johannes Quaas, Tom Goren, and Matthias Tesche
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3841–3856, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3841-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3841-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol particles in the atmosphere increase cloud reflectivity, thereby cooling the Earth. Accurate global measurements of these particles are crucial for estimating this cooling effect. This study compares and harmonizes two newly developed global aerosol datasets, offering insights for their future use and refinement. We identify pristine oceans as a significant source of uncertainty in the datasets and, therefore, in quantifying the role of aerosols in Earth's climate.
André Ehrlich, Susanne Crewell, Andreas Herber, Marcus Klingebiel, Christof Lüpkes, Mario Mech, Sebastian Becker, Stephan Borrmann, Heiko Bozem, Matthias Buschmann, Hans-Christian Clemen, Elena De La Torre Castro, Henning Dorff, Regis Dupuy, Oliver Eppers, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Andreas Giez, Sarah Grawe, Christophe Gourbeyre, Jörg Hartmann, Evelyn Jäkel, Philipp Joppe, Olivier Jourdan, Zsófia Jurányi, Benjamin Kirbus, Johannes Lucke, Anna E. Luebke, Maximilian Maahn, Nina Maherndl, Christian Mallaun, Johanna Mayer, Stephan Mertes, Guillaume Mioche, Manuel Moser, Hanno Müller, Veronika Pörtge, Nils Risse, Greg Roberts, Sophie Rosenburg, Johannes Röttenbacher, Michael Schäfer, Jonas Schaefer, Andreas Schäfler, Imke Schirmacher, Johannes Schneider, Sabrina Schnitt, Frank Stratmann, Christian Tatzelt, Christiane Voigt, Andreas Walbröl, Anna Weber, Bruno Wetzel, Martin Wirth, and Manfred Wendisch
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1295–1328, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1295-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an overview of the HALO–(AC)3 aircraft campaign data sets, the campaign-specific instrument operation, data processing, and data quality. The data set comprises in situ and remote sensing observations from three research aircraft: HALO, Polar 5, and Polar 6. All data are published in the PANGAEA database by instrument-separated data subsets. It is highlighted how the scientific analysis of the HALO–(AC)3 data benefits from the coordinated operation of three aircraft.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Benjamin Heutte, Nora Bergner, Hélène Angot, Jakob B. Pernov, Lubna Dada, Jessica A. Mirrielees, Ivo Beck, Andrea Baccarini, Matthew Boyer, Jessie M. Creamean, Kaspar R. Daellenbach, Imad El Haddad, Markus M. Frey, Silvia Henning, Tiia Laurila, Vaios Moschos, Tuukka Petäjä, Kerri A. Pratt, Lauriane L. J. Quéléver, Matthew D. Shupe, Paul Zieger, Tuija Jokinen, and Julia Schmale
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2207–2241, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Limited aerosol measurements in the central Arctic hinder our understanding of aerosol–climate interactions in the region. Our year-long observations of aerosol physicochemical properties during the MOSAiC expedition reveal strong seasonal variations in aerosol chemical composition, where the short-term variability is heavily affected by storms in the Arctic. Local wind-generated particles are shown to be an important source of cloud seeds, especially in autumn.
Madison M. Smith, Niels Fuchs, Evgenii Salganik, Donald K. Perovich, Ian Raphael, Mats A. Granskog, Kirstin Schulz, Matthew D. Shupe, and Melinda Webster
The Cryosphere, 19, 619–644, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-619-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-619-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The fate of freshwater from Arctic sea ice and snowmelt impacts interactions of the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. We complete a comprehensive analysis of datasets from a 2020 central Arctic field campaign to understand the drivers of the sea ice freshwater budget and the fate of this water. Over half of the freshwater comes from surface melt, and a majority fraction is incorporated into the ocean. Results suggest that the representation of melt ponds is a key area for future development.
Johanna Roschke, Jonas Witthuhn, Marcus Klingebiel, Moritz Haarig, Andreas Foth, Anton Kötsche, and Heike Kalesse-Los
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 487–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-487-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-487-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a technique to discriminate between the Cloudnet target classification of "drizzle or rain" and sea salt aerosols that is applicable to marine Cloudnet sites. The method is crucial for investigating the occurrence of precipitation and significantly improves the Cloudnet target classification scheme for measurements over the Barbados Cloud Observatory (BCO). A first-ever analysis of the Cloudnet product including the new "haze echo" target over 2 years at the BCO is presented.
Larysa Istomina, Hannah Niehaus, and Gunnar Spreen
The Cryosphere, 19, 83–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-83-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-83-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Melt water puddles, or melt ponds on top of the Arctic sea ice, are a good measure of the Arctic climate state. In the context of recent climate warming, the Arctic has warmed about 4 times faster than the rest of the world, and a long-term dataset of the melt pond fraction is needed to be able to model the future development of the Arctic climate. We present such a dataset, produce 2002–2023 trends and highlight a potential melt regime shift with drastic regional trends of + 20 % per decade.
Andreas Foth, Moritz Lochmann, Pablo Saavedra Garfias, and Heike Kalesse-Los
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 7169–7181, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-7169-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-7169-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Microwave radiometers are usually not able to provide atmospheric quantities such as temperature profiles during rain. We present a method based on a selection of specific frequencies and elevation angles from microwave radiometer observations. A comparison with a numerical weather prediction model shows the presented method allows low-level temperature profiles during rain to be resolved, with rain rates of up to 2.5 mm h−1,, which was not possible before with state-of-the-art retrievals.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Meng Huang, Po-Lun Ma, Naser Mahfouz, Susanne E. Bauer, Susannah M. Burrows, Matthew W. Christensen, Sudhakar Dipu, Andrew Gettelman, L. Ruby Leung, Florian Tornow, Johannes Quaas, Adam C. Varble, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, and Youtong Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13633–13652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stratocumulus clouds play a large role in Earth's climate by reflecting incoming solar energy back to space. Turbulence at stratocumulus cloud top mixes in dry, warm air, which can lead to cloud dissipation. This process is challenging for coarse-resolution global models to represent. We show that global models nevertheless agree well with our process understanding. Global models also think the process is less important for the climate than other lines of evidence have led us to conclude.
Jianqi Zhao, Xiaoyan Ma, and Johannes Quaas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3662, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We conduct a comparative analysis of aerosol-cloud responses in liquid-phase clouds under different aerosol and meteorological conditions based on simulations using the WRF-Chem-SBM model. Our findings highlight the different effects of aerosols on clouds and precipitation, as well as variations in the roles of aerosol and meteorological factors influencing aerosol-cloud interactions, in different environment.
Chris Smith, Donald P. Cummins, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Myles Allen, Stuart Jenkins, Nicholas Leach, Camilla Mathison, and Antti-Ilari Partanen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8569–8592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate projections are only useful if the underlying models that produce them are well calibrated and can reproduce observed climate change. We formalise a software package that calibrates the open-source FaIR simple climate model to full-complexity Earth system models. Observations, including historical warming, and assessments of key climate variables such as that of climate sensitivity are used to constrain the model output.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Imke Schirmacher, Sabrina Schnitt, Marcus Klingebiel, Nina Maherndl, Benjamin Kirbus, André Ehrlich, Mario Mech, and Susanne Crewell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12823–12842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12823-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During Arctic marine cold-air outbreaks, cold air flows from sea ice over open water. Roll circulations evolve, forming cloud streets. We investigate the initial circulation and cloud development using high-resolution airborne measurements. We compute the distance an air mass traveled over water (fetch) from back trajectories. Cloud streets form at 15 km fetch, cloud cover strongly increases at around 20 km, and precipitation forms at around 30 km.
Teresa Vogl, Martin Radenz, Fabiola Ramelli, Rosa Gierens, and Heike Kalesse-Los
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 6547–6568, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present a toolkit of two Python algorithms to extract information from Doppler spectra measured by ground-based cloud radars. In these Doppler spectra, several peaks can be formed due to populations of droplets/ice particles with different fall velocities coexisting in the same measurement time and height. The two algorithms can detect peaks and assign them to certain particle types, such as small cloud droplets or fast-falling ice particles like graupel.
Iris Papakonstantinou-Presvelou and Johannes Quaas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3293, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
As the Arctic warms and the sea ice retreats, more open ocean is exposed, changing how aerosols impact clouds. Our previous 10-year satellite analysis found higher ice crystal numbers over sea ice than over ocean. Using model simulations and aircraft observations we identify here two factors as potential causes at colder temperatures; ice nucleating particles over sea ice and blowing snow. With further sea ice loss, these processes may weaken, leading to fewer ice particles in the future.
Rémy Lapere, Louis Marelle, Pierre Rampal, Laurent Brodeau, Christian Melsheimer, Gunnar Spreen, and Jennie L. Thomas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12107–12132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Elongated open-water areas in sea ice, called leads, can release marine aerosols into the atmosphere. In the Arctic, this source of atmospheric particles could play an important role for climate. However, the amount, seasonality and spatial distribution of such emissions are all mostly unknown. Here, we propose a first parameterization for sea spray aerosols emitted through leads in sea ice and quantify their impact on aerosol populations in the high Arctic.
Johanna Tjernström, Michael Gallagher, Jareth Holt, Gunilla Svensson, Matthew D. Shupe, Jonathan J. Day, Lara Ferrighi, Siri Jodha Khalsa, Leslie M. Hartten, Ewan O'Connor, Zen Mariani, and Øystein Godøy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2088, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
The value of numerical weather predictions can be enhanced in several ways, one is to improve the representations of small-scale processes in models. To understand what needs to be improved, the model results need to be evaluated. Following standardized principles, a file format has been defined to be as similar as possible for both observational and model data. Python packages and toolkits are presented as a community resource in the production of the files and evaluation analysis.
Sina Mehrdad, Dörthe Handorf, Ines Höschel, Khalil Karami, Johannes Quaas, Sudhakar Dipu, and Christoph Jacobi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1223–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a novel deep learning (DL) approach to analyze how regional radiative forcing in Europe impacts the Arctic climate. By integrating atmospheric poleward energy transport with DL-based clustering of atmospheric patterns and attributing anomalies to specific clusters, our method reveals crucial, nuanced interactions within the climate system, enhancing our understanding of intricate climate dynamics.
Robert J. Allen, Xueying Zhao, Cynthia A. Randles, Ryan J. Kramer, Bjørn H. Samset, and Christopher J. Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11207–11226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes 28% (7–55%) of the surface warming associated with its longwave absorption. The precipitation increase associated with the longwave radiative effects of the present-day methane perturbation is also muted by shortwave absorption but not significantly so. Methane shortwave absorption also impacts the magnitude of its climate feedback parameter, largely through the cloud feedback.
Julien Lenhardt, Johannes Quaas, and Dino Sejdinovic
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5655–5677, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5655-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5655-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds play a key role in the regulation of the Earth's climate. Aspects like the height of their base are of essential interest to quantify their radiative effects but remain difficult to derive from satellite data. In this study, we combine observations from the surface and satellite retrievals of cloud properties to build a robust and accurate method to retrieve the cloud base height, based on a computer vision model and ordinal regression.
Nils Risse, Mario Mech, Catherine Prigent, Gunnar Spreen, and Susanne Crewell
The Cryosphere, 18, 4137–4163, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4137-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Passive microwave observations from satellites are crucial for monitoring Arctic sea ice and atmosphere. To do this effectively, it is important to understand how sea ice emits microwaves. Through unique Arctic sea ice observations, we improved our understanding, identified four distinct emission types, and expanded current knowledge to include higher frequencies. These findings will enhance our ability to monitor the Arctic climate and provide valuable information for new satellite missions.
Xavier J. Levine, Ryan S. Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René R. Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla A. Mooney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1161–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, differences remain in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
Jianqi Zhao, Xiaoyan Ma, Johannes Quaas, and Hailing Jia
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9101–9118, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9101-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9101-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore aerosol–cloud interactions in liquid-phase clouds over eastern China and its adjacent ocean in winter based on the WRF-Chem–SBM model, which couples a spectral-bin microphysics scheme and an online aerosol module. Our study highlights the differences in aerosol–cloud interactions between land and ocean and between precipitation clouds and non-precipitation clouds, and it differentiates and quantifies their underlying mechanisms.
Manfred Wendisch, Susanne Crewell, André Ehrlich, Andreas Herber, Benjamin Kirbus, Christof Lüpkes, Mario Mech, Steven J. Abel, Elisa F. Akansu, Felix Ament, Clémantyne Aubry, Sebastian Becker, Stephan Borrmann, Heiko Bozem, Marlen Brückner, Hans-Christian Clemen, Sandro Dahlke, Georgios Dekoutsidis, Julien Delanoë, Elena De La Torre Castro, Henning Dorff, Regis Dupuy, Oliver Eppers, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Sarah Grawe, Silke Groß, Jörg Hartmann, Silvia Henning, Lutz Hirsch, Evelyn Jäkel, Philipp Joppe, Olivier Jourdan, Zsofia Jurányi, Michail Karalis, Mona Kellermann, Marcus Klingebiel, Michael Lonardi, Johannes Lucke, Anna E. Luebke, Maximilian Maahn, Nina Maherndl, Marion Maturilli, Bernhard Mayer, Johanna Mayer, Stephan Mertes, Janosch Michaelis, Michel Michalkov, Guillaume Mioche, Manuel Moser, Hanno Müller, Roel Neggers, Davide Ori, Daria Paul, Fiona M. Paulus, Christian Pilz, Felix Pithan, Mira Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Maximilian Ringel, Nils Risse, Gregory C. Roberts, Sophie Rosenburg, Johannes Röttenbacher, Janna Rückert, Michael Schäfer, Jonas Schaefer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Jörg Schmidt, Sebastian Schmidt, Johannes Schneider, Sabrina Schnitt, Anja Schwarz, Holger Siebert, Harald Sodemann, Tim Sperzel, Gunnar Spreen, Bjorn Stevens, Frank Stratmann, Gunilla Svensson, Christian Tatzelt, Thomas Tuch, Timo Vihma, Christiane Voigt, Lea Volkmer, Andreas Walbröl, Anna Weber, Birgit Wehner, Bruno Wetzel, Martin Wirth, and Tobias Zinner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8865–8892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe. Warm-air intrusions (WAIs) into the Arctic may play an important role in explaining this phenomenon. Cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) out of the Arctic may link the Arctic climate changes to mid-latitude weather. In our article, we describe how to observe air mass transformations during CAOs and WAIs using three research aircraft instrumented with state-of-the-art remote-sensing and in situ measurement devices.
Johannes Röttenbacher, André Ehrlich, Hanno Müller, Florian Ewald, Anna E. Luebke, Benjamin Kirbus, Robin J. Hogan, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8085–8104, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8085-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8085-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction models simplify the physical processes related to light scattering by clouds consisting of complex ice crystals. Whether these simplifications are the cause for uncertainties in their prediction can be evaluated by comparing them with measurement data. Here we do this for Arctic ice clouds over sea ice using airborne measurements from two case studies. The model performs well for thick ice clouds but not so well for thin ones. This work can be used to improve the model.
Andreas Walbröl, Janosch Michaelis, Sebastian Becker, Henning Dorff, Kerstin Ebell, Irina Gorodetskaya, Bernd Heinold, Benjamin Kirbus, Melanie Lauer, Nina Maherndl, Marion Maturilli, Johanna Mayer, Hanno Müller, Roel A. J. Neggers, Fiona M. Paulus, Johannes Röttenbacher, Janna E. Rückert, Imke Schirmacher, Nils Slättberg, André Ehrlich, Manfred Wendisch, and Susanne Crewell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8007–8029, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8007-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8007-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To support the interpretation of the data collected during the HALO-(AC)3 campaign, which took place in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic from 7 March to 12 April 2022, we analyze how unusual the weather and sea ice conditions were with respect to the long-term climatology. From observations and ERA5 reanalysis, we found record-breaking warm air intrusions and a large variety of marine cold air outbreaks. Sea ice concentration was mostly within the climatological interquartile range.
Ales Kuchar, Maurice Öhlert, Roland Eichinger, and Christoph Jacobi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 895–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Exploring the polar vortex's impact on climate, the study evaluates model simulations against the ERA5 reanalysis data. Revelations about model discrepancies in simulating disruptive stratospheric warmings and vortex behavior highlight the need for refined model simulations of past climate. By enhancing our understanding of these dynamics, the research contributes to more reliable climate projections of the polar vortex with the impact on surface climate.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Edward Gryspeerdt, Sudhakar Dipu, Johannes Quaas, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Florian Tornow, Susanne E. Bauer, Andrew Gettelman, Yi Ming, Youtong Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Matthew W. Christensen, Adam C. Varble, L. Ruby Leung, Xiaohong Liu, David Neubauer, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7331–7345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Human activities release copious amounts of small particles called aerosols into the atmosphere. These particles change how much sunlight clouds reflect to space, an important human perturbation of the climate, whose magnitude is highly uncertain. We found that the latest climate models show a negative correlation but a positive causal relationship between aerosols and cloud water. This means we need to be very careful when we interpret observational studies that can only see correlation.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Basudev Swain, Marco Vountas, Aishwarya Singh, Nidhi L. Anchan, Adrien Deroubaix, Luca Lelli, Yanick Ziegler, Sachin S. Gunthe, Hartmut Bösch, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5671–5693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5671-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic amplification (AA) accelerates the warming of the central Arctic cryosphere and affects aerosol dynamics. Limited observations hinder a comprehensive analysis. This study uses AEROSNOW aerosol optical density (AOD) data and GEOS-Chem simulations to assess AOD variability. Discrepancies highlight the need for improved observational integration into models to refine our understanding of aerosol effects on cloud microphysics, ice nucleation, and radiative forcing under evolving AA.
Karl Kortum, Suman Singha, Gunnar Spreen, Nils Hutter, Arttu Jutila, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 18, 2207–2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A dataset of 20 radar satellite acquisitions and near-simultaneous helicopter-based surveys of the ice topography during the MOSAiC expedition is constructed and used to train a variety of deep learning algorithms. The results give realistic insights into the accuracy of retrieval of measured ice classes using modern deep learning models. The models able to learn from the spatial distribution of the measured sea ice classes are shown to have a clear advantage over those that cannot.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Gunter Stober, Sharon L. Vadas, Erich Becker, Alan Liu, Alexander Kozlovsky, Diego Janches, Zishun Qiao, Witali Krochin, Guochun Shi, Wen Yi, Jie Zeng, Peter Brown, Denis Vida, Neil Hindley, Christoph Jacobi, Damian Murphy, Ricardo Buriti, Vania Andrioli, Paulo Batista, John Marino, Scott Palo, Denise Thorsen, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Satonori Nozawa, Mark Lester, Kathrin Baumgarten, Johan Kero, Evgenia Belova, Nicholas Mitchell, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, and Na Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4851–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‘apai volcano exploded in a vigorous eruption, causing many atmospheric phenomena reaching from the surface up to space. In this study, we investigate how the mesospheric winds were affected by the volcanogenic gravity waves and estimated their propagation direction and speed. The interplay between model and observations permits us to gain new insights into the vertical coupling through atmospheric gravity waves.
Sabine Doktorowski, Jan Kretzschmar, Johannes Quaas, Marc Salzmann, and Odran Sourdeval
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3099–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Especially over the midlatitudes, precipitation is mainly formed via the ice phase. In this study we focus on the initial snow formation process in the ICON-AES, the aggregation process. We use a stochastical approach for the aggregation parameterization and investigate the influence in the ICON-AES. Therefore, a distribution function of cloud ice is created, which is evaluated with satellite data. The new approach leads to cloud ice loss and an improvement in the process rate bias.
Hanno Müller, André Ehrlich, Evelyn Jäkel, Johannes Röttenbacher, Benjamin Kirbus, Michael Schäfer, Robin J. Hogan, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4157–4175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A weather model is used to compare solar radiation with measurements from an aircraft campaign in the Arctic. Model and observations agree on the downward radiation but show differences in the radiation reflected by the surface and the clouds, which in the model is too low above sea ice and too high above open ocean. The model–observation bias is reduced above open ocean by a realistic fraction of clouds and less cloud liquid water and above sea ice by less dark sea ice and more cloud droplets.
Benjamin Kirbus, Imke Schirmacher, Marcus Klingebiel, Michael Schäfer, André Ehrlich, Nils Slättberg, Johannes Lucke, Manuel Moser, Hanno Müller, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3883–3904, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3883-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A research aircraft is used to track the changes in air temperature, moisture, and cloud properties for air that moves from cold Arctic sea ice onto warmer oceanic waters. The measurements are compared to two reanalysis models named ERA5 and CARRA. The biggest differences are found for air temperature over the sea ice and moisture over the ocean. CARRA data are more accurate than ERA5 because they better simulate the sea ice, the transition from sea ice to open ocean, and the forming clouds.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Luisa von Albedyll, Stefan Hendricks, Nils Hutter, Dmitrii Murashkin, Lars Kaleschke, Sascha Willmes, Linda Thielke, Xiangshan Tian-Kunze, Gunnar Spreen, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 18, 1259–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1259-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Leads (openings in sea ice cover) are created by sea ice dynamics. Because they are important for many processes in the Arctic winter climate, we aim to detect them with satellites. We present two new techniques to detect lead widths of a few hundred meters at high spatial resolution (700 m) and independent of clouds or sun illumination. We use the MOSAiC drift 2019–2020 in the Arctic for our case study and compare our new products to other existing lead products.
Evelyn Jäkel, Sebastian Becker, Tim R. Sperzel, Hannah Niehaus, Gunnar Spreen, Ran Tao, Marcel Nicolaus, Wolfgang Dorn, Annette Rinke, Jörg Brauchle, and Manfred Wendisch
The Cryosphere, 18, 1185–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The results of the surface albedo scheme of a coupled regional climate model were evaluated against airborne and ground-based measurements conducted in the European Arctic in different seasons between 2017 and 2022. We found a seasonally dependent bias between measured and modeled surface albedo for cloudless and cloudy situations. The strongest effects of the albedo model bias on the net irradiance were most apparent in the presence of optically thin clouds.
Adrien Deroubaix, Marco Vountas, Benjamin Gaubert, Maria Dolores Andrés Hernández, Stephan Borrmann, Guy Brasseur, Bruna Holanda, Yugo Kanaya, Katharina Kaiser, Flora Kluge, Ovid Oktavian Krüger, Inga Labuhn, Michael Lichtenstern, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Mira Pöhlker, Hans Schlager, Johannes Schneider, Guillaume Siour, Basudev Swain, Paolo Tuccella, Kameswara S. Vinjamuri, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Benjamin Weyland, and John P. Burrows
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-516, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-516, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses atmospheric composition using air quality models during aircraft campaigns in Europe and Asia, focusing on carbonaceous aerosols and trace gases. While carbon monoxide is well modeled, other pollutants have moderate to weak agreement with observations. Wind speed modeling is reliable for identifying pollution plumes, where models tend to overestimate concentrations. This highlights challenges in accurately modeling aerosol and trace gas composition, particularly in cities.
Adrien Deroubaix, Marco Vountas, Benjamin Gaubert, Maria Dolores Andrés Hernández, Stephan Borrmann, Guy Brasseur, Bruna Holanda, Yugo Kanaya, Katharina Kaiser, Flora Kluge, Ovid Oktavian Krüger, Inga Labuhn, Michael Lichtenstern, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Mira Pöhlker, Hans Schlager, Johannes Schneider, Guillaume Siour, Basudev Swain, Paolo Tuccella, Kameswara S. Vinjamuri, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Benjamin Weyland, and John P. Burrows
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-521, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the proportional relationships between carbonaceous aerosols (black and organic carbon) and trace gases using airborne measurements from two campaigns in Europe and East Asia. Differences between regions were found, but air quality models struggled to reproduce them accurately. We show that these proportional relationships can help to constrain models and can be used to infer aerosol concentrations from satellite observations of trace gases, especially in urban areas.
Hannah Niehaus, Larysa Istomina, Marcel Nicolaus, Ran Tao, Aleksey Malinka, Eleonora Zege, and Gunnar Spreen
The Cryosphere, 18, 933–956, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-933-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-933-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Melt ponds are puddles of meltwater which form on Arctic sea ice in the summer period. They are darker than the ice cover and lead to increased absorption of solar energy. Global climate models need information about the Earth's energy budget. Thus satellite observations are used to monitor the surface fractions of melt ponds, ocean, and sea ice in the entire Arctic. We present a new physically based algorithm that can separate these three surface types with uncertainty below 10 %.
Michael Lonardi, Elisa F. Akansu, André Ehrlich, Mauro Mazzola, Christian Pilz, Matthew D. Shupe, Holger Siebert, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1961–1978, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1961-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Profiles of thermal-infrared irradiance were measured at two Arctic sites. The presence or lack of clouds influences the vertical structure of these observations. In particular, the cloud top region is a source of radiative energy that can promote cooling and mixing in the cloud layer. Simulations are used to further characterize how the amount of water in the cloud modifies this forcing. A case study additionally showcases the evolution of the radiation profiles in a dynamic atmosphere.
Maximilian Maahn, Dmitri Moisseev, Isabelle Steinke, Nina Maherndl, and Matthew D. Shupe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 899–919, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-899-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The open-source Video In Situ Snowfall Sensor (VISSS) is a novel instrument for characterizing particle shape, size, and sedimentation velocity in snowfall. It combines a large observation volume with relatively high resolution and a design that limits wind perturbations. The open-source nature of the VISSS hardware and software invites the community to contribute to the development of the instrument, which has many potential applications in atmospheric science and beyond.
Gina C. Jozef, John J. Cassano, Sandro Dahlke, Mckenzie Dice, Christopher J. Cox, and Gijs de Boer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Observations collected during MOSAiC were used to identify the range in vertical structure and stability of the central Arctic lower atmosphere through a self-organizing map analysis. Characteristics of wind features (such as low-level jets) and atmospheric moisture features (such as clouds) were analyzed in the context of the varying vertical structure and stability. Thus, the results of this paper give an overview of the thermodynamic and kinematic features of the central Arctic atmosphere.
Sabrina Schnitt, Andreas Foth, Heike Kalesse-Los, Mario Mech, Claudia Acquistapace, Friedhelm Jansen, Ulrich Löhnert, Bernhard Pospichal, Johannes Röttenbacher, Susanne Crewell, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 681–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This publication describes the microwave radiometric measurements performed during the EUREC4A campaign at Barbados Cloud Observatory (BCO) and aboard RV Meteor and RV Maria S Merian. We present retrieved integrated water vapor (IWV), liquid water path (LWP), and temperature and humidity profiles as a unified, quality-controlled, multi-site data set on a 3 s temporal resolution for a core period between 19 January 2020 and 14 February 2020.
Karoline Block, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, and Johannes Quaas
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 443–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-443-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-443-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols being able to act as condensation nuclei for cloud droplets (CCNs) are a key element in cloud formation but very difficult to determine. In this study we present a new global vertically resolved CCN dataset for various humidity conditions and aerosols. It is obtained using an atmospheric model (CAMS reanalysis) that is fed by satellite observations of light extinction (AOD). We investigate and evaluate the abundance of CCNs in the atmosphere and their temporal and spatial occurrence.
Basudev Swain, Marco Vountas, Adrien Deroubaix, Luca Lelli, Yanick Ziegler, Soheila Jafariserajehlou, Sachin S. Gunthe, Andreas Herber, Christoph Ritter, Hartmut Bösch, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 359–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are suspensions of particles dispersed in the air. In this study, we use a novel retrieval of satellite data to investigate an optical property of aerosols, the aerosol optical depth, in the high Arctic to assess their direct and indirect roles in climate change. This study demonstrates that the presented approach shows good quality and very promising potential.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Elisa F. Akansu, Sandro Dahlke, Holger Siebert, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15473–15489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15473-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15473-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The height of the mixing layer is an important measure of the surface-level distribution of energy or other substances. The experimental determination of this height is associated with large uncertainties, particularly under stable conditions that we often find during the polar night or in the presence of clouds. We present a reference method using turbulence measurements on a tethered balloon, which allows us to evaluate approaches based on radiosondes or surface observations.
Marcus Klingebiel, André Ehrlich, Elena Ruiz-Donoso, Nils Risse, Imke Schirmacher, Evelyn Jäkel, Michael Schäfer, Kevin Wolf, Mario Mech, Manuel Moser, Christiane Voigt, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15289–15304, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we explain how we use aircraft measurements from two Arctic research campaigns to identify cloud properties (like droplet size) over sea-ice and ice-free ocean. To make sure that our measurements make sense, we compare them with other observations. Our results show, e.g., larger cloud droplets in early summer than in spring. Moreover, the cloud droplets are also larger over ice-free ocean than compared to sea ice. In the future, our data can be used to improve climate models.
Raphael Harry Köhler, Ralf Jaiser, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1071–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1071-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1071-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the local mechanisms of troposphere–stratosphere coupling on seasonal timescales during extended winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The detected tropospheric precursor regions exhibit very distinct mechanisms of coupling to the stratosphere, thus highlighting the importance of the time- and zonally resolved picture. Moreover, this study demonstrates that the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic atmosphere model (ICON) can realistically reproduce troposphere–stratosphere coupling.
Christoph Jacobi, Ales Kuchar, Toralf Renkwitz, and Juliana Jaen
Adv. Radio Sci., 21, 111–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-21-111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-21-111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Middle atmosphere long-term changes show the signature of climate change. We analyse 43 years of mesopause region horizontal winds obtained at two sites in Germany. We observe mainly positive trends of the zonal prevailing wind throughout the year, while the meridional winds tend to decrease in magnitude in both summer and winter. Furthermore, there is a change in long-term trends around the late 1990s, which is most clearly visible in summer winds.
Juliana Jaen, Toralf Renkwitz, Huixin Liu, Christoph Jacobi, Robin Wing, Aleš Kuchař, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, and Jorge L. Chau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14871–14887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14871-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14871-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Investigation of winds is important to understand atmospheric dynamics. In the summer mesosphere and lower thermosphere, there are three main wind flows: the mesospheric westward, the mesopause southward (equatorward), and the lower-thermospheric eastward wind. Combining almost 2 decades of measurements from different radars, we study the trend, their interannual oscillations, and the effects of the geomagnetic activity over these wind maxima.
Pablo Saavedra Garfias, Heike Kalesse-Los, Luisa von Albedyll, Hannes Griesche, and Gunnar Spreen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14521–14546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14521-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14521-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
An important Arctic climate process is the release of heat fluxes from sea ice openings to the atmosphere that influence the clouds. The characterization of this process is the objective of this study. Using synergistic observations from the MOSAiC expedition, we found that single-layer cloud properties show significant differences when clouds are coupled or decoupled to the water vapour transport which is used as physical link between the upwind sea ice openings and the cloud under observation.
Gina C. Jozef, Robert Klingel, John J. Cassano, Björn Maronga, Gijs de Boer, Sandro Dahlke, and Christopher J. Cox
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4983–4995, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4983-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4983-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Observations from the MOSAiC expedition relating to lower-atmospheric temperature, wind, stability, moisture, and surface radiation budget from radiosondes, a meteorological tower, radiation station, and ceilometer were compiled to create a dataset which describes the thermodynamic and kinematic state of the central Arctic lower atmosphere between October 2019 and September 2020. This paper describes the methods used to develop this lower-atmospheric properties dataset.
Gina C. Jozef, John J. Cassano, Sandro Dahlke, Mckenzie Dice, Christopher J. Cox, and Gijs de Boer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13087–13106, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13087-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Observations from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) were used to determine the frequency of occurrence of various central Arctic lower atmospheric stability regimes and how the stability regimes transition between each other. Wind and radiation observations were analyzed in the context of stability regime and season to reveal the relationships between Arctic atmospheric stability and mechanically and radiatively driven turbulent forcings.
Albert Ansmann, Kevin Ohneiser, Ronny Engelmann, Martin Radenz, Hannes Griesche, Julian Hofer, Dietrich Althausen, Jessie M. Creamean, Matthew C. Boyer, Daniel A. Knopf, Sandro Dahlke, Marion Maturilli, Henriette Gebauer, Johannes Bühl, Cristofer Jimenez, Patric Seifert, and Ulla Wandinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12821–12849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The 1-year MOSAiC (2019–2020) expedition with the German ice breaker Polarstern was the largest polar field campaign ever conducted. The Polarstern, with our lidar aboard, drifted with the pack ice north of 85° N for more than 7 months (October 2019 to mid-May 2020). We measured the full annual cycle of aerosol conditions in terms of aerosol optical and cloud-process-relevant properties. We observed a strong contrast between polluted winter and clean summer aerosol conditions.
Alexander Mchedlishvili, Christof Lüpkes, Alek Petty, Michel Tsamados, and Gunnar Spreen
The Cryosphere, 17, 4103–4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4103-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4103-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we looked at sea ice–atmosphere drag coefficients, quantities that help with characterizing the friction between the atmosphere and sea ice, and vice versa. Using ICESat-2, a laser altimeter that measures elevation differences by timing how long it takes for photons it sends out to return to itself, we could map the roughness, i.e., how uneven the surface is. From roughness we then estimate drag force, the frictional force between sea ice and the atmosphere, across the Arctic.
Imke Schirmacher, Pavlos Kollias, Katia Lamer, Mario Mech, Lukas Pfitzenmaier, Manfred Wendisch, and Susanne Crewell
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 4081–4100, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4081-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CloudSat’s relatively coarse spatial resolution, low sensitivity, and blind zone limit its assessment of Arctic low-level clouds, which affect the surface energy balance. We compare cloud fractions from CloudSat and finely resolved airborne radar observations to determine CloudSat’s limitations. Cloudsat overestimates cloud fractions above its blind zone, especially during cold-air outbreaks over open water, and misses a cloud fraction of 32 % and half of the precipitation inside its blind zone.
Philip Rostosky and Gunnar Spreen
The Cryosphere, 17, 3867–3881, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3867-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3867-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
During winter, storms entering the Arctic region can bring warm air into the cold environment. Strong increases in air temperature modify the characteristics of the Arctic snow and ice cover. The Arctic sea ice cover can be monitored by satellites observing the natural emission of the Earth's surface. In this study, we show that during warm air intrusions the change in the snow characteristics influences the satellite-derived sea ice cover, leading to a false reduction of the estimated ice area.
Manfred Wendisch, Johannes Stapf, Sebastian Becker, André Ehrlich, Evelyn Jäkel, Marcus Klingebiel, Christof Lüpkes, Michael Schäfer, and Matthew D. Shupe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9647–9667, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9647-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric radiation measurements have been conducted during two field campaigns using research aircraft. The data are analyzed to see if the near-surface air in the Arctic is warmed or cooled if warm–humid air masses from the south enter the Arctic or cold–dry air moves from the north from the Arctic to mid-latitude areas. It is important to study these processes and to check if climate models represent them well. Otherwise it is not possible to reliably forecast the future Arctic climate.
Sophie Rosenburg, Charlotte Lange, Evelyn Jäkel, Michael Schäfer, André Ehrlich, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3915–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Snow layer melting and melt pond formation on Arctic sea ice are important seasonal processes affecting the surface reflection and energy budget. Sea ice reflectivity was surveyed by airborne imaging spectrometers in May–June 2017. Adapted retrieval approaches were applied to find snow layer liquid water fraction, snow grain effective radius, and melt pond depth. The retrievals show the potential and limitations of spectral airborne imaging to map melting snow layer and melt pond properties.
Mark D. Zelinka, Christopher J. Smith, Yi Qin, and Karl E. Taylor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8879–8898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8879-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8879-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The primary uncertainty in how strongly Earth's climate has been perturbed by human activities comes from the unknown radiative impact of aerosol changes. Accurately quantifying these forcings – and their sub-components – in climate models is crucial for understanding the past and future simulated climate. In this study we describe biases in previously published estimates of aerosol radiative forcing in climate models and provide corrected estimates along with code for users to compute them.
Shijie Peng, Qinghua Yang, Matthew D. Shupe, Xingya Xi, Bo Han, Dake Chen, Sandro Dahlke, and Changwei Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8683–8703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Due to a lack of observations, the structure of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) remains to be further explored. By analyzing a year-round radiosonde dataset collected over the Arctic sea-ice surface, we found the annual cycle of the ABL height (ABLH) is primarily controlled by the evolution of ABL thermal structure, and the surface conditions also show a high correlation with ABLH variation. In addition, the Arctic ABLH is found to be decreased in summer compared with 20 years ago.
Johannes Riebold, Andy Richling, Uwe Ulbrich, Henning Rust, Tido Semmler, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 663–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic sea ice loss might impact the atmospheric circulation outside the Arctic and therefore extremes over mid-latitudes. Here, we analyze model experiments to initially assess the influence of sea ice loss on occurrence frequencies of large-scale circulation patterns. Some of these detected circulation changes can be linked to changes in occurrences of European temperature extremes. Compared to future global temperature increases, the sea-ice-related impacts are however of secondary relevance.
Hao Luo, Johannes Quaas, and Yong Han
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8169–8186, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds exhibit a wide range of vertical structures with varying microphysical and radiative properties. We show a global survey of spatial distribution, vertical extent and radiative effect of various classified cloud vertical structures using joint satellite observations from the new CCCM datasets during 2007–2010. Moreover, the long-term trends in CVSs are investigated based on different CMIP6 future scenarios to capture the cloud variations with different, increasing anthropogenic forcings.
Manuel Moser, Christiane Voigt, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Valerian Hahn, Guillaume Mioche, Olivier Jourdan, Régis Dupuy, Christophe Gourbeyre, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Johannes Lucke, Yvonne Boose, Mario Mech, Stephan Borrmann, André Ehrlich, Andreas Herber, Christof Lüpkes, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7257–7280, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7257-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a comprehensive microphysical and thermodynamic phase analysis of low-level clouds in the northern Fram Strait, above the sea ice and the open ocean, during spring and summer. Using airborne in situ cloud data, we show that the properties of Arctic low-level clouds vary significantly with seasonal meteorological situations and surface conditions. The observations presented in this study can help one to assess the role of clouds in the Arctic climate system.
Sebastian Becker, André Ehrlich, Michael Schäfer, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7015–7031, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7015-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses the variability of the warming or cooling effect of clouds on the Arctic surface. Therefore, aircraft radiation measurements were performed over sea ice and open ocean during three seasonally different campaigns. It is found that clouds cool the open-ocean surface most strongly in summer. Over sea ice, clouds warm the surface in spring but have a neutral effect in summer. Due to the variable sea ice extent, clouds warm the surface during spring but cool it during late summer.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Kameswara S. Vinjamuri, Marco Vountas, Luca Lelli, Martin Stengel, Matthew D. Shupe, Kerstin Ebell, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2903–2918, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2903-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2903-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds play an important role in Arctic amplification. Cloud data from ground-based sites are valuable but cannot represent the whole Arctic. Therefore the use of satellite products is a measure to cover the entire Arctic. However, the quality of such cloud measurements from space is not well known. The paper discusses the differences and commonalities between satellite and ground-based measurements. We conclude that the satellite dataset, with a few exceptions, can be used in the Arctic.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Basudev Swain, Marco Vountas, Adrien Deroubaix, Luca Lelli, Aishwarya Singh, Yanick Ziegler, Sachin S. Gunthe, and John P. Burrows
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-730, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-730, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are suspensions of particles distributed in the air. Depending on their chemical composition, they scatter and/or absorb sunlight and thus cool or warm the earth's atmosphere and its surface. They also provide as a surface in the atmosphere upon which ice or liquid clouds droplets nucleate and grow. In this study, we use satellite observations and model simulations to investigate the properties of aerosols with the goal of assessing their direct and indirect role in climate change.
Vishnu Nandan, Rosemary Willatt, Robbie Mallett, Julienne Stroeve, Torsten Geldsetzer, Randall Scharien, Rasmus Tonboe, John Yackel, Jack Landy, David Clemens-Sewall, Arttu Jutila, David N. Wagner, Daniela Krampe, Marcus Huntemann, Mallik Mahmud, David Jensen, Thomas Newman, Stefan Hendricks, Gunnar Spreen, Amy Macfarlane, Martin Schneebeli, James Mead, Robert Ricker, Michael Gallagher, Claude Duguay, Ian Raphael, Chris Polashenski, Michel Tsamados, Ilkka Matero, and Mario Hoppmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2211–2229, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2211-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2211-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We show that wind redistributes snow on Arctic sea ice, and Ka- and Ku-band radar measurements detect both newly deposited snow and buried snow layers that can affect the accuracy of snow depth estimates on sea ice. Radar, laser, meteorological, and snow data were collected during the MOSAiC expedition. With frequent occurrence of storms in the Arctic, our results show that
wind-redistributed snow needs to be accounted for to improve snow depth estimates on sea ice from satellite radars.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Ulrike Egerer, John J. Cassano, Matthew D. Shupe, Gijs de Boer, Dale Lawrence, Abhiram Doddi, Holger Siebert, Gina Jozef, Radiance Calmer, Jonathan Hamilton, Christian Pilz, and Michael Lonardi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2297–2317, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2297-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2297-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes how measurements from a small uncrewed aircraft system can be used to estimate the vertical turbulent heat energy exchange between different layers in the atmosphere. This is particularly important for the atmosphere in the Arctic, as turbulent exchange in this region is often suppressed but is still important to understand how the atmosphere interacts with sea ice. We present three case studies from the MOSAiC field campaign in Arctic sea ice in 2020.
Jan Chylik, Dmitry Chechin, Regis Dupuy, Birte S. Kulla, Christof Lüpkes, Stephan Mertes, Mario Mech, and Roel A. J. Neggers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4903–4929, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4903-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4903-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic low-level clouds play an important role in the ongoing warming of the Arctic. Unfortunately, these clouds are not properly represented in weather forecast and climate models. This study tries to cover this gap by focusing on clouds over open water during the spring, observed by research aircraft near Svalbard. The study combines the high-resolution model with sets of observational data. The results show the importance of processes that involve both ice and the liquid water in the clouds.
Dmitry G. Chechin, Christof Lüpkes, Jörg Hartmann, André Ehrlich, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4685–4707, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds represent a very important component of the Arctic climate system, as they strongly reduce the amount of heat lost to space from the sea ice surface. Properties of clouds, as well as their persistence, strongly depend on the complex interaction of such small-scale properties as phase transitions, radiative transfer and turbulence. In this study we use airborne observations to learn more about the effect of clouds and radiative cooling on turbulence in comparison with other factors.
Samuel Kwakye, Heike Kalesse-Los, Maximilian Maahn, Patric Seifert, Roel van Klink, Christian Wirth, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2023-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2023-69, 2023
Publication in AMT not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Insect numbers in the atmosphere can be calculated using polarimetric weather radar but they have to be identified and separated from other echoes, especially weather phenomena. Here, the separation is demonstrated using three machine-learning algorithms and insect count data from suction traps and the nature of radar measurements of different radar echoes is revealed. Random forest is the best separating algorithm and insect echoes radar measurements are distinct.
Felix Pithan, Marylou Athanase, Sandro Dahlke, Antonio Sánchez-Benítez, Matthew D. Shupe, Anne Sledd, Jan Streffing, Gunilla Svensson, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1857–1873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaluating climate models usually requires long observational time series, but we present a method that also works for short field campaigns. We compare climate model output to observations from the MOSAiC expedition in the central Arctic Ocean. All models show how the arrival of a warm air mass warms the Arctic in April 2020, but two models do not show the response of snow temperature to the diurnal cycle. One model has too little liquid water and too much ice in clouds during cold days.
Khalil Karami, Rolando Garcia, Christoph Jacobi, Jadwiga H. Richter, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3799–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Alongside mitigation and adaptation efforts, stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) is increasingly considered a third pillar to combat dangerous climate change. We investigate the teleconnection between the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere and the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex under a warmer climate and an SAI scenario. We show that the Holton–Tan relationship weakens under both scenarios and discuss the physical mechanisms responsible for such changes.
Heike Kalesse-Los, Anton Kötsche, Andreas Foth, Johannes Röttenbacher, Teresa Vogl, and Jonas Witthuhn
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 1683–1704, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Virga-Sniffer, a new modular open-source Python package tool to characterize full precipitation evaporation (so-called virga) from ceilometer cloud base height and vertically pointing cloud radar reflectivity time–height fields, is described. Results of its first application to RV Meteor observations during the EUREC4A field experiment in January–February 2020 are shown. About half of all detected clouds with bases below the trade inversion height were found to produce virga.
André Ehrlich, Martin Zöger, Andreas Giez, Vladyslav Nenakhov, Christian Mallaun, Rolf Maser, Timo Röschenthaler, Anna E. Luebke, Kevin Wolf, Bjorn Stevens, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 1563–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1563-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of the broadband radiative energy budget from aircraft are needed to study the effect of clouds, aerosol particles, and surface conditions on the Earth's energy budget. However, the moving aircraft introduces challenges to the instrument performance and post-processing of the data. This study introduces a new radiometer package, outlines a greatly simplifying method to correct thermal offsets, and provides exemplary measurements of solar and thermal–infrared irradiance.
Jianqi Zhao, Xiaoyan Ma, Johannes Quaas, and Hailing Jia
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-331, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We improve the ability of WRF-Chem model to simulate aerosol-cloud physical and chemical processes by coupling a spectral-bin cloud microphysics scheme and online aerosol module, and consequently explore the aerosol-cloud interactions over eastern China and its adjacent ocean in boreal winter. Our study highlights the differences in aerosol-cloud interactions between land and ocean, precipitation clouds and non-precipitation clouds, and differentiates and quantifies their underlying mechanisms.
Christoph Jacobi, Kanykei Kandieva, and Christina Arras
Adv. Radio Sci., 20, 85–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-20-85-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-20-85-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sporadic E (Es) layers are thin regions of accumulated ions in the lower ionosphere. They can be observed by disturbances of GNSS links between low-Earth orbiting satellites and GNSS satellites. Es layers are influenced by neutral atmospheric tides and show the coupling between the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. Here we analyse migrating (sun-synchronous) and non-migrating tidal components in Es. The main signatures are migrating Es, but nonmigrating components are found as well.
Wenkai Guo, Polona Itkin, Suman Singha, Anthony P. Doulgeris, Malin Johansson, and Gunnar Spreen
The Cryosphere, 17, 1279–1297, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1279-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice maps are produced to cover the MOSAiC Arctic expedition (2019–2020) and divide sea ice into scientifically meaningful classes. We use a high-resolution X-band synthetic aperture radar dataset and show how image brightness and texture systematically vary across the images. We use an algorithm that reliably corrects this effect and achieve good results, as evaluated by comparisons to ground observations and other studies. The sea ice maps are useful as a basis for future MOSAiC studies.
Marine Bonazzola, Hélène Chepfer, Po-Lun Ma, Johannes Quaas, David M. Winker, Artem Feofilov, and Nick Schutgens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1359–1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1359-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1359-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol has a large impact on climate. Using a lidar aerosol simulator ensures consistent comparisons between modeled and observed aerosol. We present a lidar aerosol simulator that applies a cloud masking and an aerosol detection threshold. We estimate the lidar signals that would be observed at 532 nm by the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization overflying the atmosphere predicted by a climate model. Our comparison at the seasonal timescale shows a discrepancy in the Southern Ocean.
Gerhard Georg Bruno Schmidtke, Raimund Brunner, and Christoph Jacobi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-139, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The instrument records annual changes in Spectral Outgoing Radiation from 200–1100 nm, with 60 photomultiplier tubes simultaneously providing spectrometer and photometer data. Using Total Solar Irradiance data with a stability of 0.01 Wm-2 per year to recalibrate the established instruments, stable data of ~0.1 Wm-2 over a solar cycle period is expected. Determination of the changes in the global green Earth coverage and mapping will also assess the impact of climate engineering actions.
Luca Lelli, Marco Vountas, Narges Khosravi, and John Philipp Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2579–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2579-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2579-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic amplification describes the recent period in which temperatures have been rising twice as fast as or more than the global average and sea ice and the Greenland ice shelf are approaching a tipping point. Hence, the Arctic ability to reflect solar energy decreases and absorption by the surface increases. Using 2 decades of complementary satellite data, we discover that clouds unexpectedly increase the pan-Arctic reflectance by increasing their liquid water content, thus cooling the Arctic.
Andrew M. Sayer, Luca Lelli, Brian Cairns, Bastiaan van Diedenhoven, Amir Ibrahim, Kirk D. Knobelspiesse, Sergey Korkin, and P. Jeremy Werdell
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 969–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-969-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-969-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a method to estimate the height of the top of clouds above Earth's surface using satellite measurements. It is based on light absorption by oxygen in Earth's atmosphere, which darkens the signal that a satellite will see at certain wavelengths of light. Clouds "shield" the satellite from some of this darkening, dependent on cloud height (and other factors), because clouds scatter light at these wavelengths. The method will be applied to the future NASA PACE mission.
Yunfan Liu, Hang Su, Siwen Wang, Chao Wei, Wei Tao, Mira L. Pöhlker, Christopher Pöhlker, Bruna A. Holanda, Ovid O. Krüger, Thorsten Hoffmann, Manfred Wendisch, Paulo Artaxo, Ulrich Pöschl, Meinrat O. Andreae, and Yafang Cheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 251–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The origins of the abundant cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the upper troposphere (UT) of the Amazon remain unclear. With model developments of new secondary organic aerosol schemes and constrained by observation, we show that strong aerosol nucleation and condensation in the UT is triggered by biogenic organics, and organic condensation is key for UT CCN production. This UT CCN-producing mechanism may prevail over broader vegetation canopies and deserves emphasis in aerosol–climate feedback.
Christian Melsheimer, Gunnar Spreen, Yufang Ye, and Mohammed Shokr
The Cryosphere, 17, 105–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-105-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-105-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is necessary to know the type of Antarctic sea ice present – first-year ice (grown in one season) or multiyear ice (survived one summer melt) – to understand and model its evolution, as the ice types behave and react differently. We have adapted and extended an existing method (originally for the Arctic), and now, for the first time, daily maps of Antarctic sea ice types can be derived from microwave satellite data. This will allow a new data set from 2002 well into the future to be built.
Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, Jared Lewis, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Malte Meinshausen, Matthew J. Gidden, Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura Wienpahl, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Piers M. Forster, Andy Reisinger, Roberto Schaeffer, and Keywan Riahi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9075–9109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing hundreds or thousands of emission scenarios in terms of their global mean temperature implications requires standardised procedures of infilling, harmonisation, and probabilistic temperature assessments. We here present the open-source
climate-assessmentworkflow that was used in the IPCC AR6 Working Group III report. The paper provides key insight for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Gunter Stober, Alan Liu, Alexander Kozlovsky, Zishun Qiao, Ales Kuchar, Christoph Jacobi, Chris Meek, Diego Janches, Guiping Liu, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Satonori Nozawa, Mark Lester, Evgenia Belova, Johan Kero, and Nicholas Mitchell
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5769–5792, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5769-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5769-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Precise and accurate measurements of vertical winds at the mesosphere and lower thermosphere are rare. Although meteor radars have been used for decades to observe horizontal winds, their ability to derive reliable vertical wind measurements was always questioned. In this article, we provide mathematical concepts to retrieve mathematically and physically consistent solutions, which are compared to the state-of-the-art non-hydrostatic model UA-ICON.
Julienne Stroeve, Vishnu Nandan, Rosemary Willatt, Ruzica Dadic, Philip Rostosky, Michael Gallagher, Robbie Mallett, Andrew Barrett, Stefan Hendricks, Rasmus Tonboe, Michelle McCrystall, Mark Serreze, Linda Thielke, Gunnar Spreen, Thomas Newman, John Yackel, Robert Ricker, Michel Tsamados, Amy Macfarlane, Henna-Reetta Hannula, and Martin Schneebeli
The Cryosphere, 16, 4223–4250, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4223-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4223-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Impacts of rain on snow (ROS) on satellite-retrieved sea ice variables remain to be fully understood. This study evaluates the impacts of ROS over sea ice on active and passive microwave data collected during the 2019–20 MOSAiC expedition. Rainfall and subsequent refreezing of the snowpack significantly altered emitted and backscattered radar energy, laying important groundwork for understanding their impacts on operational satellite retrievals of various sea ice geophysical variables.
Willi Schimmel, Heike Kalesse-Los, Maximilian Maahn, Teresa Vogl, Andreas Foth, Pablo Saavedra Garfias, and Patric Seifert
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5343–5366, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5343-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5343-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces the novel Doppler radar spectra-based machine learning approach VOODOO (reVealing supercOOled liquiD beyOnd lidar attenuatiOn). VOODOO is a powerful probability-based extension to the existing Cloudnet hydrometeor target classification, enabling the detection of liquid-bearing cloud layers beyond complete lidar attenuation via user-defined p* threshold. VOODOO performs best for (multi-layer) stratiform and deep mixed-phase clouds with liquid water path > 100 g m−2.
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Océane Hames, Mahdi Jafari, David Nicholas Wagner, Ian Raphael, David Clemens-Sewall, Chris Polashenski, Matthew D. Shupe, Martin Schneebeli, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6429–6449, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6429-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an Eulerian–Lagrangian snow transport model implemented in the fluid dynamics software OpenFOAM, which we call snowBedFoam 1.0. We apply this model to reproduce snow deposition on a piece of ridged Arctic sea ice, which was produced during the MOSAiC expedition through scan measurements. The model appears to successfully reproduce the enhanced snow accumulation and deposition patterns, although some quantitative uncertainties were shown.
Gina Jozef, John Cassano, Sandro Dahlke, and Gijs de Boer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 4001–4022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
During the MOSAiC expedition, meteorological conditions over the lowest 1 km of the atmosphere were sampled with the DataHawk2 uncrewed aircraft system. These data were used to identify the best method for atmospheric boundary layer height detection by comparing visually identified subjective boundary layer height to that identified by several objective automated detection methods. The results show a bulk Richardson number-based approach gives the best estimate of boundary layer height.
Ovid O. Krüger, Bruna A. Holanda, Sourangsu Chowdhury, Andrea Pozzer, David Walter, Christopher Pöhlker, Maria Dolores Andrés Hernández, John P. Burrows, Christiane Voigt, Jos Lelieveld, Johannes Quaas, Ulrich Pöschl, and Mira L. Pöhlker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8683–8699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8683-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The abrupt reduction in human activities during the first COVID-19 lockdown created unprecedented atmospheric conditions. We took the opportunity to quantify changes in black carbon (BC) as a major anthropogenic air pollutant. Therefore, we measured BC on board a research aircraft over Europe during the lockdown and compared the results to measurements from 2017. With model simulations we account for different weather conditions and find a lockdown-related decrease in BC of 41 %.
Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Jan Kretzschmar, Karoline Block, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8457–8472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of aerosols emitted by the Holuhraun volcanic eruption on liquid clouds was assessed from a pair of cloud-system-resolving simulations along with satellite retrievals. Inside and outside the plume were compared in terms of their statistical distributions. Analyses indicated enhancement for cloud droplet number concentration inside the volcano plume in model simulations and satellite retrievals, while there was on average a small effect on both liquid water path and cloud fraction.
Assia Arouf, Hélène Chepfer, Thibault Vaillant de Guélis, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Matthew D. Shupe, Rodrigo Guzman, Artem Feofilov, Patrick Raberanto, Tristan S. L'Ecuyer, Seiji Kato, and Michael R. Gallagher
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3893–3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed new estimates of the surface longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect (CRE) derived from observations collected by a space-based lidar on board the CALIPSO satellite and radiative transfer computations. Our estimate appropriately captures the surface LW CRE annual variability over bright polar surfaces, and it provides a dataset more than 13 years long.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald Rieder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We focus on the impact of small-scale orographic gravity waves (OGWs) above the Himalayas. The interaction of GWs with the large-scale circulation in the stratosphere is not still well understood and can have implications on climate projections. We use a chemistry-climate model to show that these strong OGW events are associated with anomalously increased upward planetary-scale waves and in turn affect the circumpolar circulation and have the potential to alter ozone variability as well.
David N. Wagner, Matthew D. Shupe, Christopher Cox, Ola G. Persson, Taneil Uttal, Markus M. Frey, Amélie Kirchgaessner, Martin Schneebeli, Matthias Jaggi, Amy R. Macfarlane, Polona Itkin, Stefanie Arndt, Stefan Hendricks, Daniela Krampe, Marcel Nicolaus, Robert Ricker, Julia Regnery, Nikolai Kolabutin, Egor Shimanshuck, Marc Oggier, Ian Raphael, Julienne Stroeve, and Michael Lehning
The Cryosphere, 16, 2373–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2373-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on measurements of the snow cover over sea ice and atmospheric measurements, we estimate snowfall and snow accumulation for the MOSAiC ice floe, between November 2019 and May 2020. For this period, we estimate 98–114 mm of precipitation. We suggest that about 34 mm of snow water equivalent accumulated until the end of April 2020 and that at least about 50 % of the precipitated snow was eroded or sublimated. Further, we suggest explanations for potential snowfall overestimation.
Hailing Jia, Johannes Quaas, Edward Gryspeerdt, Christoph Böhm, and Odran Sourdeval
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7353–7372, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7353-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7353-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol–cloud interaction is the most uncertain component of the anthropogenic forcing of the climate. By combining satellite and reanalysis data, we show that the strength of the Twomey effect (S) increases remarkably with vertical velocity. Both the confounding effect of aerosol–precipitation interaction and the lack of vertical co-location between aerosol and cloud are found to overestimate S, whereas the retrieval biases in aerosol and cloud appear to underestimate S.
Sebastian Becker, André Ehrlich, Evelyn Jäkel, Tim Carlsen, Michael Schäfer, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 2939–2953, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2939-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Airborne radiation measurements are used to characterize the solar directional reflection of a mixture of Arctic sea ice and open-ocean surfaces in the transition zone between both surface types. The mixture reveals reflection properties of both surface types. It is shown that the directional reflection of the mixture can be reconstructed from the directional reflection of the individual surfaces, accounting for the special conditions present in the transition zone.
Po-Lun Ma, Bryce E. Harrop, Vincent E. Larson, Richard B. Neale, Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Stephen A. Klein, Mark D. Zelinka, Yuying Zhang, Yun Qian, Jin-Ho Yoon, Christopher R. Jones, Meng Huang, Sheng-Lun Tai, Balwinder Singh, Peter A. Bogenschutz, Xue Zheng, Wuyin Lin, Johannes Quaas, Hélène Chepfer, Michael A. Brunke, Xubin Zeng, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Samson Hagos, Zhibo Zhang, Hua Song, Xiaohong Liu, Michael S. Pritchard, Hui Wan, Jingyu Wang, Qi Tang, Peter M. Caldwell, Jiwen Fan, Larry K. Berg, Jerome D. Fast, Mark A. Taylor, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Shaocheng Xie, Philip J. Rasch, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2881–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An alternative set of parameters for E3SM Atmospheric Model version 1 has been developed based on a tuning strategy that focuses on clouds. When clouds in every regime are improved, other aspects of the model are also improved, even though they are not the direct targets for calibration. The recalibrated model shows a lower sensitivity to anthropogenic aerosols and surface warming, suggesting potential improvements to the simulated climate in the past and future.
Sumanta Sarkhel, Gunter Stober, Jorge L. Chau, Steven M. Smith, Christoph Jacobi, Subarna Mondal, Martin G. Mlynczak, and James M. Russell III
Ann. Geophys., 40, 179–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-179-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A rare gravity wave event was observed on the night of 25 April 2017 over northern Germany. An all-sky airglow imager recorded an upward-propagating wave at different altitudes in mesosphere with a prominent wave front above 91 km and faintly observed below. Based on wind and satellite-borne temperature profiles close to the event location, we have found the presence of a leaky thermal duct layer in 85–91 km. The appearance of this duct layer caused the wave amplitudes to diminish below 91 km.
Michael Schäfer, Kevin Wolf, André Ehrlich, Christoph Hallbauer, Evelyn Jäkel, Friedhelm Jansen, Anna Elizabeth Luebke, Joshua Müller, Jakob Thoböll, Timo Röschenthaler, Bjorn Stevens, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 1491–1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The new airborne thermal infrared imager VELOX is introduced. It measures two-dimensional fields of spectral thermal infrared radiance or brightness temperature within the large atmospheric window. The technical specifications as well as necessary calibration and correction procedures are presented. Example measurements from the first field deployment are analysed with respect to cloud coverage and cloud top altitude.
Klaus Dethloff, Wieslaw Maslowski, Stefan Hendricks, Younjoo J. Lee, Helge F. Goessling, Thomas Krumpen, Christian Haas, Dörthe Handorf, Robert Ricker, Vladimir Bessonov, John J. Cassano, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Robert Osinski, Markus Rex, Annette Rinke, Julia Sokolova, and Anja Sommerfeld
The Cryosphere, 16, 981–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-981-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice thickness anomalies during the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) winter in January, February and March 2020 were simulated with the coupled Regional Arctic climate System Model (RASM) and compared with CryoSat-2/SMOS satellite data. Hindcast and ensemble simulations indicate that the sea ice anomalies are driven by nonlinear interactions between ice growth processes and wind-driven sea-ice transports, with dynamics playing a dominant role.
Anna E. Luebke, André Ehrlich, Michael Schäfer, Kevin Wolf, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2727–2744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2727-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2727-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A combination of aircraft and satellite observations is used to show how the characteristics of tropical shallow clouds interact with incoming and outgoing energy. A complete depiction of these clouds is challenging to obtain, but such data are useful for understanding how models can correctly represent them. The amount of cloud is found to be the most important factor, while other cloud characteristics become increasingly impactful when more cloud is present.
Alexander Mchedlishvili, Gunnar Spreen, Christian Melsheimer, and Marcus Huntemann
The Cryosphere, 16, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-471-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we show that the activity leading to the open-ocean polynyas near the Maud Rise seamount that have occurred repeatedly from 1974–1976 as well as 2016–2017 does not simply stop for polynya-free years. Using apparent sea ice thickness retrieval, we have identified anomalies where there is thinning of sea ice on a scale that is comparable to that of the polynya events of 2016–2017. These anomalies took place in 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2018.
Michael R. Gallagher, Matthew D. Shupe, Hélène Chepfer, and Tristan L'Ecuyer
The Cryosphere, 16, 435–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
By using direct observations of snowfall and mass changes, the variability of daily snowfall mass input to the Greenland ice sheet is quantified for the first time. With new methods we conclude that cyclones west of Greenland in summer contribute the most snowfall, with 1.66 Gt per occurrence. These cyclones are contextualized in the broader Greenland climate, and snowfall is validated against mass changes to verify the results. Snowfall and mass change observations are shown to agree well.
Teresa Vogl, Maximilian Maahn, Stefan Kneifel, Willi Schimmel, Dmitri Moisseev, and Heike Kalesse-Los
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 365–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-365-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-365-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We are using machine learning techniques, a type of artificial intelligence, to detect graupel formation in clouds. The measurements used as input to the machine learning framework were performed by cloud radars. Cloud radars are instruments located at the ground, emitting radiation with wavelenghts of a few millimeters vertically into the cloud and measuring the back-scattered signal. Our novel technique can be applied to different radar systems and different weather conditions.
Juliana Jaen, Toralf Renkwitz, Jorge L. Chau, Maosheng He, Peter Hoffmann, Yosuke Yamazaki, Christoph Jacobi, Masaki Tsutsumi, Vivien Matthias, and Chris Hall
Ann. Geophys., 40, 23–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-23-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-23-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To study long-term trends in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (70–100 km), we established two summer length definitions and analyzed the variability over the years (2004–2020). After the analysis, we found significant trends in the summer beginning of one definition. Furthermore, we were able to extend one of the time series up to 31 years and obtained evidence of non-uniform trends and periodicities similar to those known for the quasi-biennial oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Heike Kalesse-Los, Willi Schimmel, Edward Luke, and Patric Seifert
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 279–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-279-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-279-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is important to detect the vertical distribution of cloud droplets and ice in mixed-phase clouds. Here, an artificial neural network (ANN) previously developed for Arctic clouds is applied to a mid-latitudinal cloud radar data set. The performance of this technique is contrasted to the Cloudnet target classification. For thick/multi-layer clouds, the machine learning technique is better at detecting liquid than Cloudnet, but if lidar data are available Cloudnet is at least as good as the ANN.
Matthew W. Christensen, Andrew Gettelman, Jan Cermak, Guy Dagan, Michael Diamond, Alyson Douglas, Graham Feingold, Franziska Glassmeier, Tom Goren, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Edward Gryspeerdt, Ralph Kahn, Zhanqing Li, Po-Lun Ma, Florent Malavelle, Isabel L. McCoy, Daniel T. McCoy, Greg McFarquhar, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Sandip Pal, Anna Possner, Adam Povey, Johannes Quaas, Daniel Rosenfeld, Anja Schmidt, Roland Schrödner, Armin Sorooshian, Philip Stier, Velle Toll, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert Wood, Mingxi Yang, and Tianle Yuan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 641–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Trace gases and aerosols (tiny airborne particles) are released from a variety of point sources around the globe. Examples include volcanoes, industrial chimneys, forest fires, and ship stacks. These sources provide opportunistic experiments with which to quantify the role of aerosols in modifying cloud properties. We review the current state of understanding on the influence of aerosol on climate built from the wide range of natural and anthropogenic laboratories investigated in recent decades.
Christoph Jacobi, Friederike Lilienthal, Dmitry Korotyshkin, Evgeny Merzlyakov, and Gunter Stober
Adv. Radio Sci., 19, 185–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-19-185-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-19-185-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compare winds and tidal amplitudes in the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere region for cases with disturbed and undisturbed geomagnetic conditions. The zonal winds in both the mesosphere and lower thermosphere tend to be weaker during disturbed conditions. The summer equatorward meridional wind jet is weaker for disturbed geomagnetic conditions. The effect of geomagnetic variability on tidal amplitudes, except for the semidiurnal tide, is relatively small.
Ramon Campos Braga, Barbara Ervens, Daniel Rosenfeld, Meinrat O. Andreae, Jan-David Förster, Daniel Fütterer, Lianet Hernández Pardo, Bruna A. Holanda, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Ovid O. Krüger, Oliver Lauer, Luiz A. T. Machado, Christopher Pöhlker, Daniel Sauer, Christiane Voigt, Adrian Walser, Manfred Wendisch, Ulrich Pöschl, and Mira L. Pöhlker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17513–17528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17513-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Interactions of aerosol particles with clouds represent a large uncertainty in estimates of climate change. Properties of aerosol particles control their ability to act as cloud condensation nuclei. Using aerosol measurements in the Amazon, we performed model studies to compare predicted and measured cloud droplet number concentrations at cloud bases. Our results confirm previous estimates of particle hygroscopicity in this region.
Heike Konow, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Marek Jacob, Marcus Klingebiel, Tobias Kölling, Anna E. Luebke, Theresa Mieslinger, Veronika Pörtge, Jule Radtke, Michael Schäfer, Hauke Schulz, Raphaela Vogel, Martin Wirth, Sandrine Bony, Susanne Crewell, André Ehrlich, Linda Forster, Andreas Giez, Felix Gödde, Silke Groß, Manuel Gutleben, Martin Hagen, Lutz Hirsch, Friedhelm Jansen, Theresa Lang, Bernhard Mayer, Mario Mech, Marc Prange, Sabrina Schnitt, Jessica Vial, Andreas Walbröl, Manfred Wendisch, Kevin Wolf, Tobias Zinner, Martin Zöger, Felix Ament, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5545–5563, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The German research aircraft HALO took part in the research campaign EUREC4A in January and February 2020. The focus area was the tropical Atlantic east of the island of Barbados. We describe the characteristics of the 15 research flights, provide auxiliary information, derive combined cloud mask products from all instruments that observe clouds on board the aircraft, and provide code examples that help new users of the data to get started.
Silke Trömel, Clemens Simmer, Ulrich Blahak, Armin Blanke, Sabine Doktorowski, Florian Ewald, Michael Frech, Mathias Gergely, Martin Hagen, Tijana Janjic, Heike Kalesse-Los, Stefan Kneifel, Christoph Knote, Jana Mendrok, Manuel Moser, Gregor Köcher, Kai Mühlbauer, Alexander Myagkov, Velibor Pejcic, Patric Seifert, Prabhakar Shrestha, Audrey Teisseire, Leonie von Terzi, Eleni Tetoni, Teresa Vogl, Christiane Voigt, Yuefei Zeng, Tobias Zinner, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17291–17314, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17291-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The article introduces the ACP readership to ongoing research in Germany on cloud- and precipitation-related process information inherent in polarimetric radar measurements, outlines pathways to inform atmospheric models with radar-based information, and points to remaining challenges towards an improved fusion of radar polarimetry and atmospheric modelling.
Cited articles
Amini, S. and Straus, D. M.: Control of storminess over the Pacific and North America by circulation regimes, Clim. Dynam., 52, 4749–4770, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4409-7, 2019. a
Becker, S., Ehrlich, A., Stapf, J., Lüpkes, C., Mech, M., Crewell, S., and Wendisch, M.: Meteorological measurements by dropsondes released from POLAR 5 during AFLUX 2019, PANGAEA – Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.921996, 2020. a, b
Bennartz, R., Shupe, M. D., Turner, D. D., Walden, V. P., Steffen, K., Cox, C. J., Kulie, M. S., Miller, N. B., and Pettersen, C.:
July 2012 Greenland melt extent enhanced by low-level liquid clouds, Nature, 496, 83–86, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12002, 2013. a
Bentsen, M., Oliviè, D. J. L., Seland, y., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O. A., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.:
NCC NorESM2-MM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.506, 2019. a
Block, K., Schneider, F. A., Mülmenstädt, J., Salzmann, M., and Quaas, J.:
Climate models disagree on the sign of total radiative feedback in the Arctic, Tellus A, 72, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1696139, 2020. a, b
Boucher, O., Denvil, S., Levavasseur, G., Cozic, A., Caubel, A., Foujols, M.-A., Meurdesoif, Y., Cadule, P., Devilliers, M., Ghattas, J., Lebas, N., Lurton, T., Mellul, L., Musat, I., Mignot, J., and Cheruy, F.:
IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1534, 2018. a
Cao, J. and Wang, B.:
NUIST NESMv3 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2021, 2019. a
Cohen, J., Screen, J. A., Furtado, J. C., Barlow, M., Whittleston, D., Coumou, D., Francis, J., Dethloff, K., Entekhabi, D., Overland, J., and Jones, J.: Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather, Nat. Geosci., 7, 627–637, 2014. a
Cox, C., Gallagher, M., Shupe, M., Persson, O., Solomon, A., Blomquist, B., Brooks, I., Costa, D., Gottas, D., Hutchings, J., and Osborn, J.: 10-meter (m) meteorological flux tower measurements (Level 1 Raw), Multidisciplinary drifting observatory for the study of arctic climate (MOSAiC), central Arctic, October 2019–September 2020, Arctic Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.18739/A2VM42Z5F, 2021. a, b
Crasemann, B., Handorf, D., Jaiser, R., Dethloff, K., Nakamura, T., Ukita, J., and Yamazaki, K.:
Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?, Polar Sci., 14, 9–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2017.09.002, 2017. a, b, c, d
Creamean, J.:
Size-resolved ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations from the MOSAiC campaign, ARM Research Facility [data set], https://doi.org/10.5439/1798162, 2019. a
Crook, J. A., Forster, P. M., and Stuber, N.:
Spatial patterns of modeled climate feedback and contributions to temperature response and polar amplification, J. Climate, 24, 3575–3592, 2011. a
Danabasoglu, G.:
NCAR CESM2-FV2 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.11281, 2019a. a
Danabasoglu, G.:
NCAR CESM2-WACCM-FV2 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.11282, 2019b. a
Danabasoglu, G.:
NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10024, 2019c. a
Danabasoglu, G.:
NCAR CESM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2185, 2019d. a
Danek, C., Shi, X., Stepanek, C., Yang, H., Barbi, D., Hegewald, J., and Lohmann, G.:
AWI AWI-ESM1.1LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.9301, 2020. a
Dawson, A. and Palmer, T. N.:
Simulating weather regimes: Impact of model resolution and stochastic parameterization, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2177–2193, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2238-x, 2015. a, b
Detring, C., Müller, A., Schielicke, L., Névir, P., and Rust, H. W.:
Occurrence and transition probabilities of omega and high-over-low blocking in the Euro-Atlantic region, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 927–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-927-2021, 2021. a
England, M. R., Eisenman, I., Lutsko, N. J., and Wagner, T. J.: The recent emergence of Arctic Amplification, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL094086, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094086, 2021. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.:
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a, b
Fabiano, F., Meccia, V. L., Davini, P., Ghinassi, P., and Corti, S.:
A regime view of future atmospheric circulation changes in northern mid-latitudes, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 163–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-163-2021, 2021. a
Feldl, N. and Roe, G.:
Four perspectives on climate feedbacks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4007–4011, 2013. a
Feldl, N., Bordoni, S., and Merlis, T. M.:
Coupled High-Latitude Climate Feedbacks and Their Impact on Atmospheric Heat Transport, J. Climate, 30, 189–201, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0324.1, 2017. a
GISTEMP Team: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), version 4, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies [data set], https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ (last access: 5 January 2023), 2023. a
Goosse, H., Kay, J. E., Armour, K. C., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Chepfer, H., Docquier, D., Jonko, A., Kushner, P. J., Lecomte, O., Massonnet, F., and Park, H. S.: Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions, Nat. Commun., 9, 1–13, 2018. a
Guo, H., John, J. G., Blanton, C., McHugh, C., Nikonov, S., Radhakrishnan, A., Rand, K., Zadeh, N. T., Balaji, V., Durachta, J., Dupuis, C., Menzel, R., Robinson, T., Underwood, S., Vahlenkamp, H., Bushuk, M., Dunne, K. A., Dussin, R., Gauthier, P. P., Ginoux, P., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R., Harrison, M., Hurlin, W., Lin, P., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Paynter, D. J., Ploshay, J., Reichl, B. G., Schwarzkopf, D. M., Seman, C. J., Shao, A., Silvers, L., Wyman, B., Yan, X., Zeng, Y., Adcroft, A., Dunne, J. P., Held, I. M., Krasting, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Milly, P., Shevliakova, E., Winton, M., Zhao, M., and Zhang, R.:
NOAA-GFDL GFDL-CM4 model output, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1402, 2018. a
Hahn, L. C., Armour, K. C., Zelinka, M. D., Bitz, C. M., and Donohoe, A.:
Contributions to polar amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, Front. Earth Sci., 9, 725, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.710036, 2021. a
Hajima, T., Abe, M., Arakawa, O., Suzuki, T., Komuro, Y., Ogura, T., Ogochi, K., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Tatebe, H., Noguchi, M. A., Ohgaito, R., Ito, A., Yamazaki, D., Ito, A., Takata, K., Watanabe, S., Kawamiya, M., and Tachiiri, K.:
MIROC MIROC-ES2L model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.902, 2019. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7, 2023. a, b
Heus, T., van Heerwaarden, C. C., Jonker, H. J. J., Pier Siebesma, A., Axelsen, S., van den Dries, K., Geoffroy, O., Moene, A. F., Pino, D., de Roode, S. R., and Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, J.:
Formulation of the Dutch Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulation (DALES) and overview of its applications, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 415–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-415-2010, 2010 (code available at: https://github.com/dalesteam/dales, last access: 8 November 2021). a, b
Hind, A., Zhang, Q., and Brattström, G.: Problems encountered when defining Arctic amplification as a ratio, Sci. Rep.-UK, 6, 30469, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30469, 2016. a
Hai-Tien, L. and NOAA CDR Program: NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Monthly Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), Version 2.7, NOAA [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V5222RQP, 2018. a
Huang, Y., Xia, Y., and Tan, X.:
On the pattern of CO2 radiative forcing and poleward energy transport, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 10578–10593, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027221, 2017. a
Jensen, M., Giangrande, S., Fairless, T., and Zhou, A.: ARM Instrument: Interpolated Sonde (interpolatedsonde), ARM Research Facility [data set], https://doi.org/10.5439/1095316, 1998. a, b
Jungclaus, J., Bittner, M., Wieners, K.-H., Wachsmann, F., Schupfner, M., Legutke, S., Giorgetta, M., Reick, C., Gayler, V., Haak, H., de Vrese, P., Raddatz, T., Esch, M., Mauritsen, T., von Storch, J.-S., Behrens, J., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Hagemann, S., Hohenegger, C., Jahns, T., Kloster, S., Kinne, S., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., Peters-von Gehlen, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stevens, B., Voigt, A., and Roeckner, E.:
MPI-M MPIESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.741, 2019. a
Kern, S., Kaleschke, L., Girard-Ardhuin, F., Spreen, G., and Beitsch, A.:
Global daily gridded 5-day median-filtered, gap-filled ASI Algorithm SSMI-SSMIS sea ice concentration data, Integrated Climate Date Center [data set], https://www.cen.uni-hamburg.de/en/icdc/data/cryosphere/seaiceconcentration-asi-ssmi.html (last access: 23 May 2022), 2020. a
Koontz, A. and Uin, J.:
AOS: Cloud Condensation Nuclei Counter (Dual Column), ramping mode averaged (aosccn2colaavg.b1), ARM Research Facility [data set], https://doi.org/10.5439/1323894, 2016. a
Krasting, J. P., John, J. G., Blanton, C., McHugh, C., Nikonov, S., Radhakrishnan, A., Rand, K., Zadeh, N. T., Balaji, V., Durachta, J., Dupuis, C., Menzel, R., Robinson, T., Underwood, S., Vahlenkamp, H., Dunne, K. A., Gauthier, P. P., Ginoux, P., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R., Harrison, M., Hurlin, W., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Paynter, D. J., Ploshay, J., Reichl, B. G., Schwarzkopf, D. M., Seman, C. J., Silvers, L., Wyman, B., Zeng, Y., Adcroft, A., Dunne, J. P., Dussin, R., Guo, H., He, J., Held, I. M., Horowitz, L. W., Lin, P., Milly, P., Shevliakova, E., Stock, C., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Xie, Y., and Zhao, M.:
NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1407, 2018. a
Lauer, M., Block, K., Salzmann, M., and Quaas, J.:
CO2-forced changes of Arctic temperature lapse-rates in CMIP5 models, Meteorol. Z., 29, 79–93, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2020/0975, 2020. a, b, c
Lelli, L., Vountas, M., Khosravi, N., and Burrows, J. P.:
Satellite remote sensing of regional and seasonal Arctic cooling showing a multi-decadal trend towards brighter and more liquid clouds, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2579–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2579-2023, 2023. a, b
Lu, J. and Cai, M.: Seasonality of polar surface warming amplification in climate simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040133, 2009. a
Lüpkes, C. and Schlünzen, K. H.: Meteorological measurements from 8 dropsondes released during POLAR 4 flight on 1993-03-04 along a track orthogonal to the pack ice edge north west of Svalbard, supplement to: Lüpkes, C; Schlünzen, KH (1996): Modelling the arctic convective boundary-layer with different turbulence parameterizations, Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 79, 107–130, PANGAEA – Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.857807, 1996. a, b
Lüpkes, C., Hartmann, J., Schmitt, A. U., Birnbaum, G., Vihma, T., and Michaelis, J.: Airborne and dropsonde measurements in MCAOs during STABLE in March 2013, PANGAEA – Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.936635, 2021. a, b
Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T.:
The Effects of Doubling the CO2 Concentration on the climate of a General Circulation Model, J. Atmos. Sci., 32, 3–15, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<0003:TEODTC>2.0.CO;2, 1975. a, b
Mather, J. H. and Voyles, J. W.:
The Arm Climate Research Facility: A Review of Structure and Capabilities, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 377–392, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00218.1, 2013. a
Maturilli, M., Holdridge, D. J., Dahlke, S., Graeser, J., Sommerfeld, A., Jaiser, R., Deckelmann, H., and Schulz, A.: Initial radiosonde data from 2019-10 to 2020-09 during project MOSAiC, PANGAEA – Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.928656, 2021. a, b
Melsheimer, C. and Spreen, G.:
AMSR2 ASI sea ice concentration data, Arctic, version 5.4 (NetCDF) (July 2012–December 2019), PANGAEA – Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.898399, 2019. a
Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., Winn, J. P., Hogan, E., Killick, R. E., Dunn, R. J. H., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P. D., and Simpson, I. R.: An updated assessment of near-surface temperature change from 1850: the HadCRUT5 data set, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2019JD032361, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032361, 2021 (data available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/data/current/download.html, last access: 7 March 2023). a
Morrison, H., de Boer, G., Feingold, G., Harrington, J., Shupe, M. D., and Sulia, K.:
Resilience of persistent Arctic mixed-phase clouds, Nat. Geosci., 5, 11–17, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1332, 2012. a
Nakamura, N. and Oort, A. H.:
Atmospheric heat budgets of the polar regions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 93, 9510–9524, 1988. a
NASA/GISS: NASA-GISS GISS-E2.1G model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1400, 2018a. a
NASA/GISS: NASA-GISS GISS-E2.1H model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1421, 2018b. a
Neggers, R. A. J., Siebesma, A. P., and Heus, T.:
Continuous Single-Column Model Evaluation at a Permanent Meteorological Supersite, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1389–1400, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00162.1, 2012. a
Neggers, R. A. J., Chylik, J., Egerer, U., Griesche, H., Schemann, V., Seifert, P., Siebert, H., and Macke, A.:
Local and Remote Controls on Arctic Mixed-Layer Evolution, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2214–2237, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001671, 2019. a, b
Neubauer, D., Ferrachat, S., Siegenthaler-Le Drian, C., Stoll, J., Folini, D. S., Tegen, I., Wieners, K.-H., Mauritsen, T., Stemmler, I., Barthel, S., Bey, I., Daskalakis, N., Heinold, B., Kokkola, H., Partridge, D., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schutgens, N., Stanelle, T., Stier, P., Watson-Parris, D., and Lohmann, U.:
HAMMOZ-Consortium MPI-ESM1.2-HAM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1622, 2019. a
Notz, D. and the SIMIP Community: Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086749, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749, 2020. a, b
Overland, J., Wang, M., and Salo, S.:
The recent Arctic warm period, Tellus A, 60, 589–597, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00327.x, 2008. a
Park, S. and Shin, J.:
SNU SAM0-UNICON model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1489, 2019. a
Pendergrass, A. G.:
CAM5 Radiative Kernels, Climate Data at the National Center for Atmospheric Research [data set], https://doi.org/10.5065/D6F47MT6, 2017. a
Pithan, F., Medeiros, B., and Mauritsen, T.:
Mixed-phase clouds cause climate model biases in Arctic wintertime temperature inversions, Clim. Dynam., 43, 289–303, 2014. a
Pithan, F., Svensson, G., Caballero, R., Chechin, D., Cronin, T. W., Ekman, A. M. L., Neggers, R., Shupe, M. D., Solomon, A., Tjernström, M., and Wendisch, M.:
Role of air-mass transformations in exchange between the Arctic and mid-latitudes, Nat. Geosci., 11, 805–812, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0234-1, 2018. a
Polyakov, I. V., Walsh, J. E., and Kwok, R.:
Recent changes of Arctic multiyear sea ice coverage and the likely causes, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 145–151, 2012. a
Rantanen, M., Karpechko, A. Y., Lipponen, A., Nordling, K., Hyvärinen, O., Ruosteenoja, K., Vihma, T., and Laaksonen, A.: The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 168, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3, 2022. a
Reynolds, R. and Riihimaki, L.:
Portable Radiation Package on Ice, ARM Research Facility [data set], https://doi.org/10.5439/1608608, 2019. a
Ridley, J., Menary, M., Kuhlbrodt, T., Andrews, M., and Andrews, T.:
MOHC HadGEM3-GC31-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.419, 2018. a
Rinke, A., Cassano, J. J., Cassano, E. N., Jaiser, R., and Handorf, D.:
Meteorological conditions during the MOSAiC expedition: Normal or anomalous?, Elementa, 9, 00023, https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2021.00023, 2021. a, b
Rohde, R. and Hausfather, Z.: Berkeley Earth Combined Land and Ocean Temperature Field, Jan 1850–Nov 2019, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3634713, 2019. a
Savita, A., Marsland, S., Dix, M., Bi, D., Dobrohotoff, P., Fiedler, R., Mackallah, C., Sullivan, A., Dias, F. B., Domingues, C. M., Hannah, N., Heerdegen, A., Hogg, A., and Druken, K.:
CSIRO-ARCCSS ACCESS-CM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 FAFMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2282, 2019. a
Scoccimarro, E., Bellucci, A., and Peano, D.:
CMCC CMCC-CM2-HR4 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1358, 2020. a
Screen, J. A. and Simmonds, I.:
The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification, Nature, 464, 1334–1337, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09051, 2010. a
Seferian, R.:
CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1391, 2018. a
Seifert, A. and Beheng, K. D.:
A two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization for mixed-phase clouds. Part 1: Model description, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 92, 45–66, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0112-4, 2006. a
Serreze, M. C. and Barry, R. G.:
Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis, Global Planet. Change, 77, 85–96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.004, 2011. a
Serreze, M. C. and Francis, J. A.:
The Arctic amplification debate, Climatic Change, 76, 241–264, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9017-y, 2006. a
Serreze, M. C., Barrett, A. P., Slater, A. G., Steele, M., Zhang, J., and Trenberth, K. E.: The large-scale energy budget of the Arctic, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D11122, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008230, 2007. a, b, c
Serreze, M. C., Barrett, A. P., Stroeve, J. C., Kindig, D. N., and Holland, M. M.:
The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification, The Cryosphere, 3, 11–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-3-11-2009, 2009. a
Shupe, M. D., Rex, M., Blomquist, B., Persson, P. O. G., Schmale, J., Uttal, T., Althausen, D., Angot, H., Archer, S., Bariteau, L., Beck, I., Bilberry, J., Bucci, S., Buck, C., Boyer, M., Brasseur, Z., Brooks, I. M., Calmer, R., Cassano, J., Castro, V., Chu, D., Costa, D., Cox, C. J., Creamean, J., Crewell, S., Dahlke, S., Damm, E., de Boer, G., Deckelmann, H., Dethloff, K., Dütsch, M., Ebell, K., Ehrlich, A., Ellis, J., Engelmann, R., Fong, A. A., Frey, M. M., Gallagher, M. R., Ganzeveld, L., Gradinger, R., Graeser, J., Greenamyer, V., Griesche, H., Griffiths, S., Hamilton, J., Heinemann, G., Helmig, D., Herber, A., Heuzé, C., Hofer, J., Houchens, T., Howard, D., Inoue, J., Jacobi, H.-W., Jaiser, R., Jokinen, T., Jourdan, O., Jozef, G., King, W., Kirchgaessner, A., Klingebiel, M., Krassovski, M., Krumpen, T., Lampert, A., Landing, W., Laurila, T., Lawrence, D., Lonardi, M., Loose, B., Lüpkes, C., Maahn, M., Macke, A., Maslowski, W., Marsay, C., Maturilli, M., Mech, M., Morris, S., Moser, M., Nicolaus, M., Ortega, P., Osborn, J., Pätzold, F., Perovich, D. K., Petäjä, T., Pilz, C., Pirazzini, R., Posman, K., Powers, H., Pratt, K. A., Preußer, A., Quéléer, L., Radenz, M., Rabe, B., Rinke, A., Sachs, T., Schulz, A., Siebert, H., Silva, T., Solomon, A., Sommerfeld, A., Spreen, G., Stephens, M., Stohl, A., Svensson, G., Uin, J., Viegas, J., Voigt, C., von der Gathen, P., Wehner, B., Welker, J. M., Wendisch, M., Werner, M., Xie, Z., and Yue, F.: Overview of the MOSAiC expedition: Atmosphere, Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 10, 00060, https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2021.00060, 00060, 2022. a, b
Smith, C. J., Kramer, R. J., and Sima, A.:
The HadGEM3-GA7.1 radiative kernel: the importance of a well-resolved stratosphere, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2157–2168, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2157-2020, 2020. a
Stengel, M., Sus, O., Stapelberg, S., Finkensieper, S., Würzler, B., Philipp, D., Hollmann, R., Poulsen, C.: ESA Cloud Climate Change Initiative (ESA Cloud_cci) data: Cloud_cci AVHRR-PM L3C/L3U CLD_PRODUCTS v3.0, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD/ESA_Cloud_cci/AVHRR-PM/V003, 2019. a
Stengel, M., Stapelberg, S., Sus, O., Finkensieper, S., Würzler, B., Philipp, D., Hollmann, R., Poulsen, C., Christensen, M., and McGarragh, G.:
Cloud_cci Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer post meridiem (AVHRR-PM) dataset version 3: 35-year climatology of global cloud and radiation properties, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 41–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-41-2020, 2020. a
Stevens, B., Moeng, C.-H., Ackerman, A. S., Bretherton, C. S., Chlond, A., de Roode, S., Edwards, J., Golaz, J.-C., Jiang, H., Khairoutdinov, M., Kirkpatrick, M. P., Lewellen, D. C., Lock, A., Müller, F., Stevens, D. E., Whelan, E., and Zhu, P.:
Evaluation of Large-Eddy Simulations via Observations of Nocturnal Marine Stratocumulus, Mon. Weather Rev., 133, 1443–1462, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR2930.1, 2005. a
Stramler, K., Genio, A. D. D., and Rossow, W. B.:
Synoptically Driven Arctic Winter States, J. Climate, 24, 1747–1762, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3817.1, 2011. a
Stroeve, J. C., Kattsov, V., Barrett, A., Serreze, M., Pavlova, T., Holland, M., and Meier, W. N.: Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052676, 2012. a
Tang, Y., Rumbold, S., Ellis, R., Kelley, D., Mulcahy, J., Sellar, A., Walton, J., and Jones, C.:
MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1569, 2019. a
Tatebe, H. and Watanabe, M.:
MIROC MIROC6 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.881, 2018. a
Taylor, P. C., Cai, M., Hu, A., Meehl, J., Washington, W., and Zhang, G. J.:
A Decomposition of Feedback Contributions to Polar Warming Amplification, J. Climate, 26, 7023–7043, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00696.1, 2013. a
Trenberth, K. E.:
Using Atmospheric Budgets as a Constraint on Surface Fluxes, J. Climate, 10, 2796–2809, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2796:UABAAC>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a, b
van Heerwaarden, C., sjboeing, Ouwersloot, H., thijsheus, Attema, J., Jansson, F., Arabas, S., Vila, J., sderoode, afmoene, and van Stratum, B.: jchylik/dales: Dales4.3_sb3 (dales4.3sb3cgn), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5642477, 2021. a
Van Laar, T. W., Schemann, V., and Neggers, R. A. J.: Investigating the diurnal evolution of the cloud size distribution of continental cumulus convection using multi-day LES, J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 729–747, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0084.1, 2019. a
Voldoire, A.:
CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-CM6-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1375, 2018. a
Voldoire, A.:
CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-CM6-1-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1385, 2019. a
Volodin, E., Mortikov, E., Gritsun, A., Lykossov, V., Galin, V., Diansky, N., Gusev, A., Kostrykin, S., Iakovlev, N., Shestakova, A., and Emelina, S.:
INM INM-CM5-0 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1423, 2019a. a
Volodin, E., Mortikov, E., Gritsun, A., Lykossov, V., Galin, V., Diansky, N., Gusev, A., Kostrykin, S., Iakovlev, N., Shestakova, A., and Emelina, S.:
INM INM-CM4-8 model output prepared for CMIP6 PMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2295, 2019b. a
Wang, M. and Overland, J. E.: A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years: An update from CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052868, 2012. a
Wendisch, M., Brückner, M., Crewell, S., Ehrlich, A., Notholt, J., Lüpkes, C., Macke, A., Burrows, J. P., Rinke, A., Quaas, J., Maturilli, M., Schemann, V., Shupe, M. D., Akansu, E. F., Barrientos-Velasco, C., Bärfuss, K., Blechschmidt, A.-M., Block, K., Bougoudis, I., Bozem, H., Böckmann, C., Bracher, A., Bresson, H., Bretschneider, L., Buschmann, M., Chechin, D. G., Chylik, J., Dahlke, S., Deneke, H., Dethloff, K., Donth, T., Dorn, W., Dupuy, R., Ebell, K., Egerer, U., Engelmann, R., Eppers, O., Gerdes, R., Gierens, R., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Gottschalk, M., Griesche, H., Gryanik, V. M., Handorf, D., Harm-Altstädter, B., Hartmann, J., Hartmann, M., Heinold, B., Herber, A., Herrmann, H., Heygster, G., Höschel, I., Hofmann, Z., Hölemann, J., Hünerbein, A., Jafariserajehlou, S., Jäkel, E., Jacobi, C., Janout, M., Jansen, F., Jourdan, O., Jurányi, Z., Kalesse-Los, H., Kanzow, T., Käthner, R., Kliesch, L. L., Klingebiel, M., Knudsen, E. M., Kovács, T., Körtke, W., Krampe, D., Kretzschmar, J., Kreyling, D., Kulla, B., Kunkel, D., Lampert, A., Lauer, M., Lelli, L., von Lerber, A., Linke, O., Löhnert, U., Lonardi, M., Losa, S. N., Losch, M., Maahn, M., Mech, M., Mei, L., Mertes, S., Metzner, E., Mewes, D., Michaelis, J., Mioche, G., Moser, M., Nakoudi, K., Neggers, R., Neuber, R., Nomokonova, T., Oelker, J., Papakonstantinou-Presvelou, I., Pätzold, F., Pefanis, V., Pohl, C., van Pinxteren, M., Radovan, A., Rhein, M., Rex, M., Richter, A., Risse, N., Ritter, C., Rostosky, P., Rozanov, V. V., Donoso, E. R., Saavedra-Garfias, P., Salzmann, M., Schacht, J., Schäfer, M., Schneider, J., Schnierstein, N., Seifert, P., Seo, S., Siebert, H., Soppa, M. A., Spreen, G., Stachlewska, I. S., Stapf, J., Stratmann, F., Tegen, I., Viceto, C., Voigt, C., Vountas, M., Walbröl, A., Walter, M., Wehner, B., Wex, H., Willmes, S., Zanatta, M., and Zeppenfeld, S.:
Atmospheric and Surface Processes, and Feedback Mechanisms Determining Arctic Amplification: A Review of First Results and Prospects of the (AC)3 Project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 104, E208–E242, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-21-0218.1, 2023. a, b
Wieners, K.-H., Giorgetta, M., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C., Esch, M., Bittner, M., Legutke, S., Schupfner, M., Wachsmann, F., Gayler, V., Haak, H., de Vrese, P., Raddatz, T., Mauritsen, T., von Storch, J.-S., Behrens, J., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Hagemann, S., Hohenegger, C., Jahns, T., Kloster, S., Kinne, S., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., Peters-von Gehlen, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stevens, B., Voigt, A., and Roeckner, E.:
MPI-M MPIESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.742, 2019. a
Xin, X., Zhang, J., Zhang, F., Wu, T., Shi, X., Li, J., Chu, M., Liu, Q., Yan, J., Ma, Q., and Wei, M.:
BCC BCC-CSM2MR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1725, 2018.
a
Yu, Y.:
CAS FGOALS-f3-L model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1782, 2018. a
Yukimoto, S., Koshiro, T., Kawai, H., Oshima, N., Yoshida, K., Urakawa, S., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Tanaka, T., Hosaka, M., Yoshimura, H., Shindo, E., Mizuta, R., Ishii, M., Obata, A., and Adachi, Y.:
MRI MRI-ESM2.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.621, 2019. a
Zhang, B., Cao, C., Liu, T.-C., and Shao, X.: Spectral Recalibration of NOAA HIRS Longwave CO2 Channels toward a 40+ Year Time Series for Climate Studies, Atmosphere, 12, 1317, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12101317, 2021. a
Zhang, H.-M., Huang, B., Lawrimore, J. H., Menne, M. J., and Smith, T. M.: NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp), Version 5.0, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://doi.org/10.25921/9qth-2p70, 2019. a
Ziehn, T., Chamberlain, M., Lenton, A., Law, R., Bodman, R., Dix, M., Wang, Y., Dobrohotoff, P., Srbinovsky, J., Stevens, L., Vohralik, P., Mackallah, C., Sullivan, A., O'Farrell, S., and Druken, K.:
CSIRO ACCESS-ESM1.5 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2288, 2019. a
Short summary
Lapse rate feedback (LRF) is a major driver of the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. It arises because the warming is stronger at the surface than aloft. Several processes can affect the LRF in the Arctic, such as the omnipresent temperature inversion. Here, we compare multimodel climate simulations to Arctic-based observations from a large research consortium to broaden our understanding of these processes, find synergy among them, and constrain the Arctic LRF and AA.
Lapse rate feedback (LRF) is a major driver of the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change....
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint