Articles | Volume 16, issue 24
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15485–15500, 2016
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15485–15500, 2016

Research article 15 Dec 2016

Research article | 15 Dec 2016

An upper-branch Brewer–Dobson circulation index for attribution of stratospheric variability and improved ozone and temperature trend analysis

William T. Ball et al.

Related authors

Atmosphere-Ocean-Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Model SOCOLv4.0: description and evaluation
Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Andrea Stenke, William T. Ball, Christina Brodowsky, Gabriel Chiodo, Aryeh Feinberg, Marina Friedel, Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Thomas Peter, Sandro Vattioni, and Eugene Rozanov
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.,,, 2021
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Extended-range predictability of sudden stratospheric warming events suggested by mode decomposition
Zheng Wu, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, Raphaël de Fondeville, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, William T. Ball, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss.,,, 2021
Preprint under review for WCD
Short summary
Model physics and chemistry causing intermodel disagreement within the VolMIP-Tambora Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol ensemble
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343,,, 2021
Short summary
The response of mesospheric H2O and CO to solar irradiance variability in models and observations
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Ales Kuchar, William Ball, Pavle Arsenovic, Ellis Remsberg, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kunze, David A. Plummer, Andrea Stenke, Daniel Marsh, Doug Kinnison, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 201–216,,, 2021
Short summary
Analysis of recent lower stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models
Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Roland Eichinger, and William T. Ball
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,,, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP

Related subject area

Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
Three-dimensional simulation of stratospheric gravitational separation using the NIES global atmospheric tracer transport model
Dmitry Belikov, Satoshi Sugawara, Shigeyuki Ishidoya, Fumio Hasebe, Shamil Maksyutov, Shuji Aoki, Shinji Morimoto, and Takakiyo Nakazawa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5349–5361,,, 2019
Retrieving the age of air spectrum from tracers: principle and method
Aurélien Podglajen and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1767–1783,,, 2019
Short summary
Reanalysis intercomparisons of stratospheric polar processing diagnostics
Zachary D. Lawrence, Gloria L. Manney, and Krzysztof Wargan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13547–13579,,, 2018
Short summary
Long-range transport pathways of tropospheric source gases originating in Asia into the northern lower stratosphere during the Asian monsoon season 2012
Bärbel Vogel, Gebhard Günther, Rolf Müller, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Armin Afchine, Heiko Bozem, Peter Hoor, Martina Krämer, Stefan Müller, Martin Riese, Christian Rolf, Nicole Spelten, Gabriele P. Stiller, Jörn Ungermann, and Andreas Zahn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15301–15325,,, 2016
Short summary
Interannual variability of the boreal summer tropical UTLS in observations and CCMVal-2 simulations
Markus Kunze, Peter Braesicke, Ulrike Langematz, and Gabriele Stiller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8695–8714,,, 2016

Cited articles

Andrews, D. G., Holton, J. R., and Leovy, C. B.: Middle atmosphere dynamics, Academic Press Inc., 1987.
Appenzeller, C., Weiss, A. K., and Staehelin, J.: North Atlantic Oscillation modulates total ozone winter trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1131–1134,, 2000.
Ball, W. T., Haigh, J. D., Rozanov, E. V., Kuchar, A., Sukhodolov, T., Tummon, F., Shapiro, A. V., and Schmutz, W.: High solar cycle spectral variations inconsistent with stratospheric ozone observations, Nat. Geosci., 9, 206–209,, 2016.
Bi, J.: A review of statistical methods for determination of relative importance of correlated predictors and identification of drivers of consumer liking, J. Sens. Stud., 27, 87–101,, 2012.
Birner, T. and Bönisch, H.: Residual circulation trajectories and transit times into the extratropical lowermost stratosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 817–827,, 2011.
Short summary
We find monthly, mid-latitude temperature changes above 40 km are related to ozone and temperature variations throughout the middle atmosphere. We develop an index to represent this atmospheric variability. In statistical analysis, the index can account for up to 60 % of variability in tropical temperature and ozone above 27 km. The uncertainties can be reduced by up to 35 % and 20 % in temperature and ozone, respectively. This index is an important tool to quantify current and future ozone recovery.
Final-revised paper