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We find monthly, mid-latitude temperature changes above 40 km are related to ozone and temperature variations throughout the middle atmosphere. We develop an index to represent this atmospheric variability. In statistical analysis, the index can account for up to 60 % of variability in tropical temperature and ozone above 27 km. The uncertainties can be reduced by up to 35 % and 20 % in temperature and ozone, respectively. This index is an important tool to quantify current and future ozone recovery.
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Articles | Volume 16, issue 24
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15485–15500, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15485–15500, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016

Research article 15 Dec 2016

Research article | 15 Dec 2016

An upper-branch Brewer–Dobson circulation index for attribution of stratospheric variability and improved ozone and temperature trend analysis

William T. Ball et al.

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Cited articles

Andrews, D. G., Holton, J. R., and Leovy, C. B.: Middle atmosphere dynamics, Academic Press Inc., 1987.
Appenzeller, C., Weiss, A. K., and Staehelin, J.: North Atlantic Oscillation modulates total ozone winter trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1131–1134, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010854, 2000.
Ball, W. T., Haigh, J. D., Rozanov, E. V., Kuchar, A., Sukhodolov, T., Tummon, F., Shapiro, A. V., and Schmutz, W.: High solar cycle spectral variations inconsistent with stratospheric ozone observations, Nat. Geosci., 9, 206–209, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2640, 2016.
Bi, J.: A review of statistical methods for determination of relative importance of correlated predictors and identification of drivers of consumer liking, J. Sens. Stud., 27, 87–101, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-459X.2012.00370.x, 2012.
Birner, T. and Bönisch, H.: Residual circulation trajectories and transit times into the extratropical lowermost stratosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 817–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-817-2011, 2011.
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Short summary
We find monthly, mid-latitude temperature changes above 40 km are related to ozone and temperature variations throughout the middle atmosphere. We develop an index to represent this atmospheric variability. In statistical analysis, the index can account for up to 60 % of variability in tropical temperature and ozone above 27 km. The uncertainties can be reduced by up to 35 % and 20 % in temperature and ozone, respectively. This index is an important tool to quantify current and future ozone recovery.
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