Articles | Volume 22, issue 13
Research article
05 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 05 Jul 2022

Quantifying the impact of meteorological uncertainty on emission estimates and the risk to aviation using source inversion for the Raikoke 2019 eruption

Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Cameron Saint, Andrew T. Prata, Helen N. Webster, and Roy G. Grainger

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Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6115–6134,,, 2022
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Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters
Natalie J. Harvey, Nathan Huntley, Helen F. Dacre, Michael Goldstein, David Thomson, and Helen Webster
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Spatial evaluation of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite observations
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 861–872,,, 2016

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Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Cited articles

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Bonadonna, C., Folch, A., Loughlin, S., and Puempel, H.: Future developments in modelling and monitoring of volcanic ash clouds: outcomes from the first IAVCEI-WMO workshop on Ash Dispersal Forecast and Civil Aviation, Bull. Volcanol., 74, 1–10, 2012. a
Bowler, N. E., Arribas, A., Mylne, K. R., Robertson, K. B., and Beare, S. E.: The MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 703–722,, 2008. a
Bruckert, J., Hoshyaripour, G. A., Horváth, Á., Muser, L. O., Prata, F. J., Hoose, C., and Vogel, B.: Online treatment of eruption dynamics improves the volcanic ash and SO2 dispersion forecast: case of the 2019 Raikoke eruption, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3535–3552,, 2022. a, b, c
Short summary
In the event of a volcanic eruption, airlines need to make decisions about which routes are safe to operate and ensure that airborne aircraft land safely. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of a statistical technique that best combines ash information from satellites and a suite of computer forecasts of ash concentration to provide a range of plausible estimates of how much volcanic ash emitted from a volcano is available to undergo long-range transport.
Final-revised paper