Quantifying the impact of meteorological uncertainty on emission estimates and the risk to aviation using source inversion for the Raikoke 2019 eruption

Harvey, Natalie J.; Dacre, Helen F.; Saint, Cameron; Prata, Andrew T.; Webster, Helen N.; Grainger, Roy G.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8529-2022

Articles | Volume 22, issue 13

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8529-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Satellite observations, in situ measurements and model simulations...

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8529-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 13

Research article

|

05 Jul 2022

Research article |

| 05 Jul 2022

Quantifying the impact of meteorological uncertainty on emission estimates and the risk to aviation using source inversion for the Raikoke 2019 eruption

Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Cameron Saint, Andrew T. Prata, Helen N. Webster, and Roy G. Grainger

Data sets

Outputs from a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model (NAME), source inversion system (InTEM) and Himawari satellite retrievals for the 2019 Raikoke eruption. Natalie Harvey and Cameron Saint https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.000335

Short summary

In the event of a volcanic eruption, airlines need to make decisions about which routes are safe to operate and ensure that airborne aircraft land safely. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of a statistical technique that best combines ash information from satellites and a suite of computer forecasts of ash concentration to provide a range of plausible estimates of how much volcanic ash emitted from a volcano is available to undergo long-range transport.