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We have examined the effects of ozone precursor emissions and climate change on the tropospheric ozone budget. Under RCP 6.0, ozone in the future is governed primarily by changes in nitrogen oxides (NOx). Methane is also important, and induces an increase in tropospheric ozone that is approximately one-third of that caused by NOx. This study highlights the critical role that emission policies globally have to play in determining tropospheric ozone evolution through the 21st century.
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Articles | Volume 15, issue 10
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5887–5902, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5887-2015
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5887–5902, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5887-2015

Research article 27 May 2015

Research article | 27 May 2015

Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0

L. E. Revell et al.

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Cited articles

Anet, J. G., Rozanov, E. V., Muthers, S., Peter, T., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Beer, J., Shapiro, A. I., Raible, C. C., Steinhilber, F., and Schmutz, W. K.: Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4420–4425, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50806, 2013.
Auvray, M. and Bey, I.: Long-range transport to Europe: Seasonal variations and implications for the European ozone budget, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D11303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005503, 2005.
Auvray, M., Bey, I., Llull, E., Schultz, M. G., and Rast, S.: A model investigation of tropospheric ozone chemical tendencies in long-range transported pollution plumes, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D05304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007137, 2007.
Avallone, L. M. and Prather, M. J.: Photochemical evolution of ozone in the lower tropical stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 1457–1461, https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD03010, 1996.
Banerjee, A., Archibald, A. T., Maycock, A. C., Telford, P., Abraham, N. L., Yang, X., Braesicke, P., and Pyle, J. A.: Lightning NOx, a key chemistry-climate interaction: impacts of future climate change and consequences for tropospheric oxidizing capacity, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9871–9881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9871-2014, 2014.
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Short summary
We have examined the effects of ozone precursor emissions and climate change on the tropospheric ozone budget. Under RCP 6.0, ozone in the future is governed primarily by changes in nitrogen oxides (NOx). Methane is also important, and induces an increase in tropospheric ozone that is approximately one-third of that caused by NOx. This study highlights the critical role that emission policies globally have to play in determining tropospheric ozone evolution through the 21st century.
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