Articles | Volume 24, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4231-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4231-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 09 Apr 2024
| 09 Apr 2024
Atmospheric oxygen as a tracer for fossil fuel carbon dioxide: a sensitivity study in the UK
Hannah Chawner
School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Karina E. Adcock
Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Tim Arnold
National Physical Laboratory, Teddington, UK
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Yuri Artioli
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, UK
Caroline Dylag
National Physical Laboratory, Teddington, UK
Grant L. Forster
Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Anita Ganesan
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Heather Graven
Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK
Gennadi Lessin
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, UK
Peter Levy
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh, UK
Ingrid T. Luijkx
Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Alistair Manning
Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK
Penelope A. Pickers
Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Chris Rennick
National Physical Laboratory, Teddington, UK
Christian Rödenbeck
Department of Biogeochemical Signals, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
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Joseph Ovwemuvwose, Ian Colin Prentice, and Heather Graven
Biogeosciences, 23, 5593–5605, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-5593-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-5593-2026, 2026
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This work examines the roles of cropland representation and the treatment of photosynthetic pathways in the uncertainties of carbon flux simulations in Earth System Models (ESMs). Our results show that reducing these uncertainties will require improvements in the representation of C3 and C4 crops and natural vegetation area coverage, as well as the theories underpinning the simulation of their carbon uptake processes, specifically the implementation of photosynthetic pathways.
Alice E. Ramsden, Anita L. Ganesan, Matthew Rigby, Chris Rennick, Tim Arnold, Emmal Safi, Edward Chung, Dafina Kikaj, Cameron Yeo, Dave Lowry, Pete Levy, Simon O'Doherty, Kieran M. Stanley, Dickon Young, Joe Pitt, Damien Martin, Morgan Lopez, Michel Ramonet, Grant L. Forster, Arnoud Frumau, and Alistair J. Manning
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 11421–11448, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-11421-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-11421-2026, 2026
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Methane is emitted from a range of anthropogenic and natural sources, each with a characteristic isotope ratio signature. We present a method for estimating emissions from multiple sources using isotopic signatures and observations of atmospheric methane isotope ratios. We show the importance of considering isotopic signature uncertainty and demonstrate how our current understanding of these signatures may be limiting this method’s ability to reduce uncertainties in emissions estimates.
Ben Adam, Rayne Holland, Daniel Van Hoomissen, James B. Burkholder, M. Anwar H. Khan, Paul Griffiths, Jens Mühle, Dudley Shallcross, and Matt Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 10979–10996, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-10979-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-10979-2026, 2026
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Some man-made gases emitted into the atmosphere can break down to form a powerful greenhouse gas called HFC-23 (hydrofluorocarbons). In this study, we use a full three-dimensional model of the atmosphere and its chemistry to improve on previous work and determine how much HFC-23 is produced from this route. Our model estimates HFC-23 production ten times lower than previously suggested, confirming that this source is a very small contributor to the total amount of HFC-23 in the atmosphere.
Vijith Vijayakumaran, Rebecca Millington, Jorn Bruggeman, Josefine Hahn, Helen Powley, Gennadi Lessin, Anja Lindenthal, Corinna Schrum, and Ute Daewel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3078, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3078, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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We present ECOSMO End-to-End v2.0, a set of fish and macrobenthos functional-group modules that can be two-way coupled to lower-trophic-level marine ecosystem models. Using a one-dimensional setup, we tested these plug-and-play modules coupled to three models used in the Copernicus Marine Service framework. Simulations show that macrobenthos increase bottom-layer nutrients and are essential for realistic fish production, while fish and macrobenthos strengthen top-down control on plankton.
Joseph R. Pitt, Dominique Rust, Anita Ganesan, Luke M. Western, Martin K. Vollmer, Jens Mühle, Tobias Bühlmann, Christina M. Harth, Stephen A. Montzka, Brad D. Hall, Isaac J. Vimont, Alistair J. Manning, Alison L. Redington, Stephan Henne, Daniela B. Melo, Saurabh Annadate, Lionel Constantin, Brendan M. Murphy, Matthew Rigby, Dickon Young, Simon O'Doherty, Angelina Wenger, Chris R. Lunder, Ove Hermansen, Thomas Wagenhäuser, Andreas Engel, Jgor Arduini, Michela Maione, Jaegeun Yun, Blagoj Mitrevski, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, Jooil Kim, Ray H. J. Wang, Tae Siek Rhee, Peter K. Salameh, T. Gerard Spain, Stefan Reimann, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, and Kieran M. Stanley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 10167–10195, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-10167-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-10167-2026, 2026
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1,2‑Dichloroethane (DCE) can contribute to the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer. Whether DCE reaches the stratosphere depends on where and when it is emitted. We present the ongoing measurements of DCE from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) global monitoring networks. For the period 2017–2023, our modelled average global emissions based on these observations align with another study, while regional estimates differ. This suggests remaining uncertainty in the geographical distribution of emissions.
Piers M. Forster, Tristram Walsh, Chris Smith, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie M. Andrew, Chris Atkinson, Richard A. Betts, Antonio Bombelli, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Helen E. Claxton, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas L. Frölicher, Catia M. Domingues, Thomas Gasser, Catherine H. Gregory, Rachel M. Hoesly, Daniel Huppmann, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, Alexia Karwat, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Jean-François Lamarque, Aurélien Liné, Belén Martín-Míguez, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Pino Mussak, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Steven J. Smith, Ghassan Taha, Caterina Tassone, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Marco Zecchetto, Junting Zhong, Xiao-Ye Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026
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We give our annual update of key climate indicators. Our work quantifies the human contribution to global warming and the pace of climate change. This represents a large effort by the international community akin to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Hélène De Longueville, Daniela B. Melo, Alison L. Redington, Alice Ramsden, Alexandre Danjou, Peter Andrews, Joseph Pitt, Brendan Murphy, Lionel Constantin, Kieran M. Stanley, Simon O'Doherty, Angelina Wenger, Dickon Young, Andreas Engel, Tanja Schuck, Katharina Meixner, Thomas Wagenhaeuser, Fides Gad, Martin K. Vollmer, Stefan Reimann, Michela Maoine, Jgor Arduini, Chris Lunder, Norbert Schmidtbauer, László Haszpra, Mihály Molnár, Arnoud Frumau, Cedric Couret, Matthew Rigby, Stephan Henne, Alistair Manning, and Anita L. Ganesan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 7647–7675, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7647-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7647-2026, 2026
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This study estimates emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, potent greenhouse gases, in north-western Europe using atmospheric observations and atmospheric modelling. The estimates are compared with nationally reported emissions submitted to the United Nations. Overall, our results are consistent with reported values, although differences are found for some gases and countries. The findings indicate that emissions in north-western Europe are declining, reflecting the effects of climate regulations.
Emmal Safi, Joe Pitt, Grant Forster, Chris Rennick, Simon O’Doherty, Dickon Young, Kanokrat Charoenpornpukdee, Nick Garrard, Dafina Kikaj, Andrew Manning, Gerard Spain, Damien Martin, Morgan Lopez, Michel Ramonet, and Kieran Stanely
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1802, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
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We compared whole and synthetic-air reference materials (RMs) for investigating offsets in greenhouse gas measurements so data from different sites/networks can be trusted when combined. By sending whole and synthetic-air (RMs) to six sites and measuring under routine field conditions, we found whole-air gives the most precise results, especially for carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide. Synthetic-air worked fairly well for methane but synthetic-air RMs needs lower uncertainty before wide use.
Martin K. Vollmer, Joseph R. Pitt, Dickon Young, Stephan Henne, Blagoj Mitrevski, Jens Mühle, Anita Ganesan, Jgor Arduini, Alistair J. Manning, Thomas Wagenhäuser, Alison L. Redington, Daniela B. Melo, Brendan Murphy, Ray Gluckmann, Kieran M. Stanley, Paul B. Krummel, Chris R. Lunder, Jaegeun Yun, Dominique Rust, Angelina Wenger, Myriam Guillevic, Jooil Kim, Ray H. J. Wang, Tae Siek Rhee, Lionel Constantin, Arnoud Frumau, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Ove Hermansen, Matthew Rigby, Luke M. Western, Andreas Engel, Simon O'Doherty, Sunyoung Park, Michela Maione, Paul J. Fraser, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, and Stefan Reimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 6993–7012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6993-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6993-2026, 2026
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Halogenated olefins (HFOs) are newly emerging compounds in the atmosphere. They are in reach of the definition of PFAS (Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) and some decay to the eternal chemical trifluoroacetate (TFA). We provide atmospheric measurements of three HFOs from the large Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network and estimate emissions for Northwest Europe for the first time. We find a quasi-ubiquitous presence in the atmosphere and rapidly increasing emissions.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Kjetil Aas, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicolas Bellouin, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Carla F. Berghoff, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Nathan O. Collier, Thomas H. Colligan, Margot Cronin, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Matt P. Enright, Kazutaka Enyo, Michael Erb, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Filippa Fransner, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Jefferson Goncalves De Souza, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Bertrand Guenet, Özgür Gürses, Kirsty Harrington, Ian Harris, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Akihiko Ito, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Yawen Kong, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Charles Koven, Taro Kunimitsu, Xin Lan, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Zhu Liu, Claire Lo Monaco, Lei Ma, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Joe R. Melton, Natalie Monacci, Erwan Monier, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Jens D. Müller, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Lorna R. Nayagam, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nutzel, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Naiqing Pan, Sudhanshu Pandey, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Pierre Regnier, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Ingunn Skjelvan, T. Luke Smallman, Victoria Spada, Mohanan G. Sreeush, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Didier Swingedouw, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Xiangjun Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Erik van Ooijen, Guido R. van der Werf, Sebastiaan J. van de Velde, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3211–3288, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026, 2026
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The Global Carbon Budget 2025 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2025). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Jozef Skákala, Shubha Sathyendranath, Yuri Artioli, Deep S. Banerjee, Heather Bouman, Robert J. W. Brewin, Momme Butenschön, Stefano Ciavatta, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Yanna Fidai, David Ford, Grinson George, Karen Guihou, Bror Jönsson, Marija Bačeković Koloper, Žarko Kovač, Lekshmi Krishnakumary, Gemma Kulk, Charlotte Laufkötter, Gennadi Lessin, Jann Paul Mattern, Angélique Melet, Alexandre Mignot, David Moffat, Fanny Monteiro, Mayra Rodriguez Bennadji, Cécile S. Rousseaux, Ranjini Swaminathan, Osvaldo Ulloa, and Jerry Tjiputra
Ocean Sci., 22, 1457–1481, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1457-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1457-2026, 2026
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Marine primary production (PP) is a key component of the Earth's climate system, but its current estimates and future projections are highly uncertain. We review the PP uncertainties and discuss their sources both across the ecosystem and satellite models. We propose to reduce the PP uncertainties by better addressing the PP model structures and parametrizations. We also argue that for many models it is desirable to consider spatial and temporal variability in the model parameter values.
Luana S. Basso, Goran Georgievski, Victor Brovkin, Christian Beer, Christian Rödenbeck, and Mathias Göckede
Biogeosciences, 23, 2815–2830, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2815-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2815-2026, 2026
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This study examines how combining atmospheric inversion with process-based modelling can reduce discrepancies in estimates of Arctic wetland CH4 emissions. We conducted a series of inversion experiments, each incorporating CH4 wetland fluxes from process-based models with different CH4 production parameterizations. Our results showed that no single parameterization captures the complexity of Arctic–Boreal emissions; instead, region-specific adjustments are needed to reduce discrepancies.
Elinor C. Tuffnell, Emma Leedham-Elvidge, William T. Sturges, Harald Bönisch, Karina E. Adcock, Paul J. Fraser, Paul B. Krummel, David E. Oram, Ray L. Langenfelds, Thomas Röckmann, Luke M. Western, Jens Mühle, and Johannes C. Laube
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 4583–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4583-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4583-2026, 2026
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The greater the stratospheric lifetime of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), the longer they will deplete ozone. This paper investigates four longer-lived CFCs, and discovers two of them have much shorter lifetimes than previously believed. Demonstrating emissions of these compounds are higher than assumed, to account for their abundance. Unusually this paper uses stratospheric whole-air samples, rather than models or lab-based experiments, to derive policy-relevant metrics for these compounds.
Fabian Maier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Karstens, Frank-Thomas Koch, Maksym Gachkivskyi, Andrew Smerald, and Christoph Gerbig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-739, 2026
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Transport model errors represent a major source of uncertainty in greenhouse gas flux estimates derived from inverse modelling, yet they remain challenging to quantify. In our study, we leverage the similarities in the atmospheric transport of methane (CH4) and radon (222Rn) by performing a dual-tracer CH4-222Rn inversion over Europe, with the goal of enhancing the reliability of CH4 flux estimates. We discuss the benefits and limitations of this dual-tracer approach.
Elena Fillola, Raul Santos-Rodriguez, Rachel Tunnicliffe, Jeffrey N. Clark, Nawid Keshtmand, Anita Ganesan, and Matthew Rigby
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1893–1915, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1893-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1893-2026, 2026
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Satellite-based greenhouse gas measurements can be used in “inverse models” to improve emissions reporting, but one of the key components, the simulations of atmospheric transport, struggle to scale to large datasets. We introduce the model GATES, an AI-driven emulator that outputs transport plumes 1000× faster than traditional models. Applied to Brazil’s methane emissions, GATES produces estimates consistent with physics-based methods, offering a scalable path for timely emissions monitoring.
Li-Qing Jiang, Amanda Fay, Jens Daniel Müller, Luke Gregor, Alizée Roobaert, Lydia Keppler, Dustin Carroll, Siv K. Lauvset, Tim DeVries, Judith Hauck, Christian Rödenbeck, Nicolas Metzl, Andrea J. Fassbender, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Peter Landschützer, Rik Wanninkhof, Christopher Sabine, Simone R. Alin, Mario Hoppema, Are Olsen, Matthew P. Humphreys, Kunal Chakraborty, Ana C. Franco, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicole Besemer, Henry C. Bittig, Albert E. Boyd, Daniel Broullón, Wei-Jun Cai, Brendan R. Carter, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Chen-Tung Arthur Chen, Frédéric Cyr, John E. Dore, Ian Enochs, Richard A. Feely, Hernan E. Garcia, Marion Gehlen, Prasanna Kanti Ghoshal, Lucas Gloege, Melchor González-Dávila, Nicolas Gruber, Debby Ianson, Yosuke Iida, Masao Ishii, Apurva Padamnabh Joshi, Esther Kennedy, Alex Kozyr, Nico Lange, Claire Lo Monaco, Derek P. Manzello, Galen A. McKinley, Natalie M. Monacci, Xose A. Padin, Ana M. Palacio-Castro, Fiz F. Pérez, J. Magdalena Santana-Casiano, Jonathan Sharp, Adrienne Sutton, Jim Swift, Toste Tanhua, Maciej Telszewski, Jens Terhaar, Ruben van Hooidonk, Anton Velo, Andrew J. Watson, Angelicque E. White, Zelun Wu, Liang Xue, Hyelim Yoo, Jiye Zeng, and Guorong Zhong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 1405–1462, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-1405-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-1405-2026, 2026
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This review article provides an overview of 68 existing ocean carbonate chemistry data products and data product sets, encompassing a broad range of types, including compilations of cruise datasets, gap-filled observational products, model simulations, and more. It is designed to help researchers identify and access the data products that best support their scientific objectives, thereby facilitating progress in understanding the ocean's changing carbonate chemistry.
Thomas Laemmel, Dylan Geissbühler, Stephan Henne, Ryo Fujita, Heather Graven, Christophe Espic, Matthias Bantle, Negar Haghipour, Franz Conen, Dominik Brunner, Martin Steinbacher, Giulia Zazzeri, Samuel Hammer, Markus Leuenberger, and Sönke Szidat
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-265, 2026
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Carbon dioxide and methane are the two main anthropogenic greenhouse gases responsible for current climate change. Beside the measurement of their atmospheric concentration, the analysis of the abundance of their isotope carbon-14 (14C) gives hints about their origin, either biogenic or fossil. Here we present six years of atmospheric 14CH4 and 14CO2 measurements at a high-elevation alpine site in Switzerland (Jungfraujoch) and discuss the observed trends in both local and global views.
Rebecca H. Ward, Luke M. Western, Rachel L. Tunnicliffe, Elena Fillola, Aki Tsuruta, Tuula Aalto, and Anita L. Ganesan
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 813–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-813-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-813-2026, 2026
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We studied methane emissions in Arctic Alaska using satellite observations to assess how well they can monitor this important greenhouse gas. We found that emission estimates varied depending on the satellite data product and were strongly affected by assumptions in the model. Our results highlight the need for careful interpretation of emissions from Arctic satellite data and thorough testing of models, with implications for reliable climate monitoring.
Ross James Herbert, Larissa Lacher, Alexander Böhmländer, Mark D. Tarn, Antione Canzi, Aidan Pantoya, Evelyn Freney, Kristina Höhler, Pia Bogert, Celine Planche, Ping Tian, Michael Adams, Sarah Barr, David Brus, Nicole Büttner, Martin Daily, Konstantinos Doulgeris, Konstantinos Eleftheridadis, Grant Forster, Romy Fösig, Dimitrios Georgakopoulos, Maria Gini, A. Gannett Hallar, Radovan Krejci, Elke Ludewig, Mauro Mazzola, Ian B. McCubbin, Tuukka Petäjä, Joseph Robinson, Franziska Vogel, Paul Zieger, Stephen R. Arnold, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Naruki Hiranuma, Ottmar Möhler, and Benjamin J. Murray
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-41, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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Ice formation in sub-zero clouds is influenced by airborne particles called ice-nucleating particles (INPs), whose concentrations vary substantially over short time and spatial scales. To assess the role of INPs in our climate, a comprehensive and consistent global dataset is essential. Our GloPINE model-ready dataset is a major step in this direction, comprising 36,000 measurements made using a single instrument design (PINE) over 70,000 hours of operation at 20 northern hemisphere sites.
Galina Y. Toteva, David Reay, Matthew Jones, Ajinkya Deshpande, Nicholas Cowan, Peter Levy, Duncan Harvey, Agata Iwanicka, and Julia Drewer
Biogeosciences, 22, 7829–7844, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7829-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7829-2025, 2025
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The impacts of increasing nitrogen deposition on the fluxes of nitrous oxide from a temperate birch forest were investigated in-situ and ex-situ. Nitrogen levels had a limited effect on emissions. Instead, emissions of nitrous oxide were modulated by soil carbon availability and meeting a dual temperature-moisture threshold. An implication of these findings is that forests could be used for mitigating nitrogen pollution without incurring a greenhouse gas penalty, at least in the short term.
Sara M. Defratyka, Julianne M. Fernandez, Getachew A. Adnew, Guannan Dong, Peter M. J. Douglas, Daniel L. Eldridge, Giuseppe Etiope, Thomas Giunta, Mojhgan A. Haghnegahdar, Alexander N. Hristov, Nicole Hultquist, Iñaki Vadillo, Josue Jautzy, Ji-Hyun Kim, Jabrane Labidi, Ellen Lalk, Wil Leavitt, Jiawen Li, Li-Hung Lin, Jiarui Liu, Lucía Ojeda, Shuhei Ono, Jeemin H. Rhim, Thomas Röckmann, Barbara Sherwood Lollar, Malavika Sivan, Jiayang Sun, Gregory T. Ventura, David T. Wang, Edward D. Young, Naizhong Zhang, and Tim Arnold
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 6889–6910, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6889-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6889-2025, 2025
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Measurement of methane’s doubly substituted isotopologues at natural abundances holds promise for better constraining the Earth’s atmospheric CH4 budget. We compiled 1475 measurements from field samples and laboratory experiments, conducted since 2014, to facilitate the differentiation of CH4 formation pathways and processes, to identify existing gaps limiting application of Δ13CH3D and Δ12CH2D2, and to develop isotope ratio source signature inputs for global CH4 flux modelling.
Luke M. Western, Stephen Bourguet, Molly Crotwell, Lei Hu, Paul B. Krummel, Hélène De Longueville, Alistair J. Manning, Jens Mühle, Dominique Rust, Isaac Vimont, Martin K. Vollmer, Minde An, Jgor Arduini, Andreas Engel, Paul J. Fraser, Anita L. Ganesan, Christina M. Harth, Chris Lunder, Michela Maione, Stephen A. Montzka, David Nance, Simon O'Doherty, Sunyoung Park, Stefan Reimann, Peter K. Salameh, Roland Schmidt, Kieran M. Stanley, Thomas Wagenhäuser, Dickon Young, Matt Rigby, Ronald G. Prinn, and Ray F. Weiss
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 17761–17778, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17761-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17761-2025, 2025
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We used atmospheric measurements to estimate emissions of two hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) gases, called HCFC-123 and HCFC-124, that harm the ozone layer. Despite international regulation to stop their production, their emissions have not fallen. This may be linked to how they are used to make other chemicals. Our findings show that some banned substances are still reaching the atmosphere, likely through leaks during chemical production, which could slow the recovery of the ozone layer.
Luke M. Western, Matthew Rigby, Jens Mühle, Paul B. Krummel, Chris R. Lunder, Simon O'Doherty, Stefan Reimann, Martin K. Vollmer, Dickon Young, Ben Adam, Paul J. Fraser, Anita L. Ganesan, Christina M. Harth, Ove Hermansen, Jooil Kim, Ray L. Langenfelds, Zoë M. Loh, Blagoj Mitrevski, Joseph R. Pitt, Peter K. Salameh, Roland Schmidt, Kieran Stanley, Ann R. Stavert, Hsiang-Jui Wang, Ray F. Weiss, and Ronald G. Prinn
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 6557–6582, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6557-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6557-2025, 2025
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We used global measurements and an atmospheric model to estimate how emissions and abundances of 42 chemically and radiatively important trace gases have changed over time. These gases affect the Earth's radiative balance and the ozone layer. Our data sets help track progress in reducing emissions of these gases to the atmosphere. This work supports international efforts to protect the environment by providing clear, long-term, consistent data on how these gases are changing in the atmosphere.
Carlos A. Sierra, Ingrid Chanca, Meinrat O. Andreae, Alessandro Carioca de Araújo, Hella van Asperen, Lars Borchardt, Santiago Botía, Luiz Antonio Candido, Caio S. C. Correa, Cléo Quaresma Dias-Junior, Markus Eritt, Annica Fröhlich, Luciana V. Gatti, Marcus Guderle, Samuel Hammer, Martin Heimann, Viviana Horna, Armin Jordan, Steffen Knabe, Richard Kneißl, Jost Valentin Lavric, Ingeborg Levin, Kita Macario, Juliana Menger, Heiko Moossen, Carlos Alberto Quesada, Michael Rothe, Christian Rödenbeck, Yago Santos, Axel Steinhof, Bruno Takeshi, Susan Trumbore, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 5871–5884, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5871-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5871-2025, 2025
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We present here a unique dataset of atmospheric observations of greenhouse gases and isotopes that provide key information on land-atmosphere interactions for the Amazon forests of central Brazil. The data show a relatively large level of variability, but also important trends in greenhouse gases, and signals from fires as well as seasonal biological activity.
Fabian Maier, Eva Falge, Maksym Gachkivskyi, Stephan Henne, Ute Karstens, Dafina Kikaj, Ingeborg Levin, Alistair Manning, Christian Rödenbeck, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 12779–12809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12779-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12779-2025, 2025
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The radioactive noble gas radon (222Rn) is a suitable natural tracer for atmospheric transport and mixing processes that can be used to validate and calibrate atmospheric transport models. However, this requires accurate estimates of the 222Rn flux from the soil into the atmosphere. In our study, we evaluate the reliability of process-based 222Rn flux maps for Europe using a 222Rn inversion. Our inversion results can give some indications on how to improve the process-based 222Rn flux maps.
Peter E. Levy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4765, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Eddy covariance is the state-of-the-art technique for measuring fluxes of energy and gases between the land surface and the atmosphere. However, quantifying the uncertainty in the results is difficult and usually treated simplistically or avoided completely. Here we use a Bayesian approach, in which the uncertainty is correctly represented. The approach produce estimates of the fluxes, (e.g. the long-term net carbon balance), in the form of posterior probability distributions.
Yuming Jin, Britton B. Stephens, Matthew C. Long, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Joram J. D. Hooghiem, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Shamil Maksyutov, Eric J. Morgan, Yosuke Niwa, Prabir K. Patra, Christian Rödenbeck, and Jesse Vance
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5937–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5937-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5937-2025, 2025
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We carry out a comprehensive atmospheric transport model (ATM) intercomparison project. This project aims to evaluate errors in ATMs and three air-sea O2 flux products by comparing model simulations with observations collected from surface stations, ships, and aircraft. We also present a model evaluation framework to independently quantify transport-related and flux-related biases that contribute to model-observation discrepancies in atmospheric tracer distributions.
Kirstin Gerrand, Elena Fillola, Alistair J. Manning, Jgor Arduini, Paul B. Krummel, Chris R. Lunder, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Sunyoung Park, Ronald G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Dickon Young, and Matthew Rigby
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4137, 2025
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To analyse long-term trends in atmospheric trace gas concentrations, it is important to identify data points minimally affected by local pollution sources or air masses carried from other latitudes or altitudes. Traditional methods for detecting these “baselines” are computationally expensive or lack a basis in physical principles. This paper introduces a machine-learning method that uses meteorological data and offers significantly lower computational costs compared to physics-based techniques.
Xiao Lu, Yiming Liu, Jiayin Su, Xiang Weng, Tabish Ansari, Yuqiang Zhang, Guowen He, Yuqi Zhu, Haolin Wang, Ganquan Zeng, Jingyu Li, Cheng He, Shuai Li, Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen, Tim Butler, Qi Fan, Shaojia Fan, Grant L. Forster, Meng Gao, Jianlin Hu, Yugo Kanaya, Mohd Talib Latif, Keding Lu, Philippe Nédélec, Peer Nowack, Bastien Sauvage, Xiaobin Xu, Lin Zhang, Ke Li, Ja-Ho Koo, and Tatsuya Nagashima
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7991–8028, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025, 2025
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This study analyzes summertime ozone trends in East and Southeast Asia derived from a comprehensive observational database spanning from 1995 to 2019, incorporating aircraft observations, ozonesonde data, and measurements from 2500 surface sites. Multiple models are applied to attribute to changes in anthropogenic emissions and climate. The results highlight that increases in anthropogenic emissions are the primary driver of ozone increases both in the free troposphere and at the surface.
Nicholas Cowan, Toby Roberts, Mark Hanlon, Aurelia Bezanger, Galina Toteva, Alex Tweedie, Karen Yeung, Ajinkya Deshpande, Peter Levy, Ute Skiba, Eiko Nemitz, and Julia Drewer
Biogeosciences, 22, 3449–3461, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3449-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3449-2025, 2025
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We measured soil hydrogen (H2) fluxes from two field sites, a managed grassland and a planted deciduous woodland, with flux measurements of H2 covering full seasonal cycles. We estimate annual H2 uptake of −3.1 ± 0.1 and −12.0 ± 0.4 kg H2 ha−1 yr−1 for the grassland and woodland sites, respectively. Soil moisture was found to be the primary driver of H2 uptake, with the silt/clay content of the soils providing a physical barrier which limited H2 uptake.
Samantha Siedlecki, Stanley Nmor, Gennadi Lessin, Kelly Kearney, Subhadeep Rakshit, Colleen Petrik, Jessica Luo, Cristina Schultz, Dalton Sasaki, Kayla Gillen, Anh Pham, Christopher Somes, Damian Brady, Jeremy Testa, Christophe Rabouille, Isa Elegbede, and Olivier Sulpis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1846, 2025
Preprint archived
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Benthic biogeochemical models are essential for simulating seafloor carbon cycling and climate feedbacks, yet vary widely in structure and assumptions. This paper introduces SedBGC_MIP, a community initiative to compare existing models, refine key processes, and assess uncertainty. We highlight discrepancies through case studies and introduce needs including observational benchmarks. Ultimately, we seek to improve climate and resource projections.
Robert J. Wilson, Yuri Artioli, Giovanni Galli, James Harle, Jason Holt, Ana M. Queirós, and Sarah Wakelin
Ocean Sci., 21, 1255–1270, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1255-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1255-2025, 2025
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Marine heatwaves are of growing concern around the world. We use a state-of-the-art ensemble of downscaled climate models to project how often heatwaves will occur in the future across northwestern Europe under a high-emission scenario. The projections show that, without emission reductions, heatwaves will occur more than half of the time in the future. We show that the seafloor is expected to experience much more frequent heatwaves than the sea surface in the future.
Santiago Botía, Saqr Munassar, Thomas Koch, Danilo Custodio, Luana S. Basso, Shujiro Komiya, Jost V. Lavric, David Walter, Manuel Gloor, Giordane Martins, Stijn Naus, Gerbrand Koren, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Stijn Hantson, John B. Miller, Wouter Peters, Christian Rödenbeck, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6219–6255, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6219-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6219-2025, 2025
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This study uses dry CO2 mole fractions from the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory together with airborne profiles to estimate net carbon exchange in tropical South America. We found that the biogeographic Amazon is a net carbon sink, while the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes are net carbon sources, resulting in an overall neutral balance. Finally, to further reduce the uncertainty in our estimates we call for an expansion of the monitoring capacity, especially in the Amazon–Andes foothills.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, Robbie M. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catia M. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Jan C. Minx, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2641–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, 2025
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In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets to track real-world changes over time. To make our work relevant to policymakers, we follow methods from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the IPCC assessment.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
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The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Giulia Zazzeri, Lukas Wacker, Negar Haghipour, Philip Gautschi, Thomas Laemmel, Sönke Szidat, and Heather Graven
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 319–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-319-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-319-2025, 2025
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Radiocarbon (14C) is an optimal tracer of methane (CH4) emissions, as 14C measurements enable distinguishing between fossil methane and biogenic methane. However, these measurements are particularly challenging, mainly due to technical difficulties in the sampling procedure. We made the sample extraction much simpler and time efficient, providing a new technology that can be used by any research group, with the goal of expanding 14C measurements for an improved understanding of methane sources.
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Michał Gałkowski, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Santiago Botía, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 639–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, 2025
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CO2 mole fractions simulated over a global set of stations showed an overestimation of CO2 if the diurnal cycle is missing in biogenic fluxes. This leads to biases in the estimated fluxes derived from the regional-scale inversions. Interannual variability of estimated biogenic fluxes is also affected by the exclusion of the CO2 diurnal cycle. The findings point to the importance of including the diurnal variations of CO2 in the biogenic fluxes used as priors in global and regional inversions.
Dafina Kikaj, Edward Chung, Alan D. Griffiths, Scott D. Chambers, Grant Forster, Angelina Wenger, Penelope Pickers, Chris Rennick, Simon O'Doherty, Joseph Pitt, Kieran Stanley, Dickon Young, Leigh S. Fleming, Karina Adcock, Emmal Safi, and Tim Arnold
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 151–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-151-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-151-2025, 2025
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We present a protocol to improve confidence in atmospheric radon measurements, enabling site comparisons and integration with greenhouse gas data. As a natural tracer, radon provides an independent check of transport model performance. This standardized method enhances radon’s use as a metric for model evaluation. Beyond UK observatories, it can support broader networks like ICOS and WMO/GAW, advancing global atmospheric research.
Ryan Hossaini, David Sherry, Zihao Wang, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, David E. Oram, Karina E. Adcock, Stephen A. Montzka, Isobel J. Simpson, Andrea Mazzeo, Amber A. Leeson, Elliot Atlas, and Charles C.-K. Chou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13457–13475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13457-2024, 2024
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DCE (1,2-dichloroethane) is an industrial chemical used to produce PVC (polyvinyl chloride). We analysed DCE production data to estimate global DCE emissions (2002–2020). The emissions were included in an atmospheric model and evaluated by comparing simulated DCE to DCE measurements in the troposphere. We show that DCE contributes ozone-depleting Cl to the stratosphere and that this has increased with increasing DCE emissions. DCE’s impact on stratospheric O3 is currently small but non-zero.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4819–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, 2024
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Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach that is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212) and to remotely sensed satellite estimates.
Peter Levy, Laura Bentley, Peter Danks, Bridget Emmett, Angus Garbutt, Stephen Heming, Peter Henrys, Aidan Keith, Inma Lebron, Niall McNamara, Richard Pywell, John Redhead, David Robinson, and Alexander Wickenden
Biogeosciences, 21, 4301–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4301-2024, 2024
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We collated a large data set (15 790 soil cores) on soil carbon stock in different land uses. Soil carbon stocks were highest in woodlands and lowest in croplands. The variability in the effects was large. This has important implications for agri-environment schemes seeking to sequester carbon in the soil by altering land use because the effect of a given intervention is very hard to verify.
Alexander S. Brunmayr, Frank Hagedorn, Margaux Moreno Duborgel, Luisa I. Minich, and Heather D. Graven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5961–5985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5961-2024, 2024
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A new generation of soil models promises to more accurately predict the carbon cycle in soils under climate change. However, measurements of 14C (the radioactive carbon isotope) in soils reveal that the new soil models face similar problems to the traditional models: they underestimate the residence time of carbon in soils and may therefore overestimate the net uptake of CO2 by the land ecosystem. Proposed solutions include restructuring the models and calibrating model parameters with 14C data.
Dieu Anh Tran, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8413–8440, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, 2024
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The analysis of the atmospheric CO2 record from the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in central Siberia shows significant increases in the length and amplitude of the CO2 uptake and release in the 2010–2021 period. The trend shows a stronger increase in carbon release amplitude compared to the uptake, suggesting that, despite enhanced growing season uptake, during this period climate warming did not elevate the annual net CO2 uptake as cold-season respirations also responded to the warming.
Fabian Maier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ingeborg Levin, Christoph Gerbig, Maksym Gachkivskyi, and Samuel Hammer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8183–8203, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8183-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8183-2024, 2024
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We investigate the usage of discrete radiocarbon (14C)-based fossil fuel carbon dioxide (ffCO2) concentration estimates vs. continuous carbon monoxide (CO)-based ffCO2 estimates to evaluate the seasonal cycle of ffCO2 emissions in an urban region with an inverse modeling framework. We find that the CO-based ffCO2 estimates allow us to reconstruct robust seasonal cycles, which show the distinct COVID-19 drawdown in 2020 and can be used to validate emission inventories.
Haklim Choi, Alison L. Redington, Hyeri Park, Jooil Kim, Rona L. Thompson, Jens Mühle, Peter K. Salameh, Christina M. Harth, Ray F. Weiss, Alistair J. Manning, and Sunyoung Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7309–7330, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7309-2024, 2024
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We analyzed with an inversion model the atmospheric abundance of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases, from 2008 to 2020 at Gosan station in South Korea and revealed a significant increase in emissions, especially from eastern China and Japan. This increase contradicts reported data, underscoring the need for accurate monitoring and reporting. Our findings are crucial for understanding and managing global HFCs emissions, highlighting the importance of efforts to reduce HFCs.
Giovanni Galli, Sarah Wakelin, James Harle, Jason Holt, and Yuri Artioli
Biogeosciences, 21, 2143–2158, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2143-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2143-2024, 2024
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This work shows that, under a high-emission scenario, oxygen concentration in deep water of parts of the North Sea and Celtic Sea can become critically low (hypoxia) towards the end of this century. The extent and frequency of hypoxia depends on the intensity of climate change projected by different climate models. This is the result of a complex combination of factors like warming, increase in stratification, changes in the currents and changes in biological processes.
Emily Dowd, Alistair J. Manning, Bryn Orth-Lashley, Marianne Girard, James France, Rebecca E. Fisher, Dave Lowry, Mathias Lanoisellé, Joseph R. Pitt, Kieran M. Stanley, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Glen Thistlethwaite, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Emanuel Gloor, and Chris Wilson
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1599-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1599-2024, 2024
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We provide the first validation of the satellite-derived emission estimates using surface-based mobile greenhouse gas surveys of an active gas leak detected near Cheltenham, UK. GHGSat’s emission estimates broadly agree with the surface-based mobile survey and steps were taken to fix the leak, highlighting the importance of satellite data in identifying emissions and helping to reduce our human impact on climate change.
Tanja J. Schuck, Johannes Degen, Eric Hintsa, Peter Hoor, Markus Jesswein, Timo Keber, Daniel Kunkel, Fred Moore, Florian Obersteiner, Matt Rigby, Thomas Wagenhäuser, Luke M. Western, Andreas Zahn, and Andreas Engel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 689–705, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-689-2024, 2024
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We study the interhemispheric gradient of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), a strong long-lived greenhouse gas. Its emissions are stronger in the Northern Hemisphere; therefore, mixing ratios in the Southern Hemisphere lag behind. Comparing the observations to a box model, the model predicts air in the Southern Hemisphere to be older. For a better agreement, the emissions used as model input need to be increased (and their spatial pattern changed), and we need to modify north–south transport.
Christian Rödenbeck, Karina E. Adcock, Markus Eritt, Maksym Gachkivskyi, Christoph Gerbig, Samuel Hammer, Armin Jordan, Ralph F. Keeling, Ingeborg Levin, Fabian Maier, Andrew C. Manning, Heiko Moossen, Saqr Munassar, Penelope A. Pickers, Michael Rothe, Yasunori Tohjima, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15767–15782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15767-2023, 2023
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The carbon dioxide content of the Earth atmosphere is increasing due to human emissions from burning of fossil fuels, causing global climate change. The strength of the fossil-fuel emissions is estimated by inventories based on energy data, but independent validation of these inventories has been recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we investigate the potential to validate inventories based on measurements of small changes in the atmospheric oxygen content.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Karina E. Adcock, Penelope A. Pickers, Andrew C. Manning, Grant L. Forster, Leigh S. Fleming, Thomas Barningham, Philip A. Wilson, Elena A. Kozlova, Marica Hewitt, Alex J. Etchells, and Andy J. Macdonald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5183–5206, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5183-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5183-2023, 2023
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We present a 12-year time series of continuous atmospheric measurements of O2 and CO2 at the Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory in the United Kingdom. These measurements are combined into the term atmospheric potential oxygen (APO), a tracer that is not influenced by land biosphere processes. The datasets show a long-term increasing trend in CO2 and decreasing trends in O2 and APO between 2010 and 2021.
Robert Woodward-Massey, Roberto Sommariva, Lisa K. Whalley, Danny R. Cryer, Trevor Ingham, William J. Bloss, Stephen M. Ball, Sam Cox, James D. Lee, Chris P. Reed, Leigh R. Crilley, Louisa J. Kramer, Brian J. Bandy, Grant L. Forster, Claire E. Reeves, Paul S. Monks, and Dwayne E. Heard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14393–14424, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14393-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14393-2023, 2023
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Measurements of OH, HO2 and RO2 radicals and also OH reactivity were made at a UK coastal site and compared to calculations from a constrained box model utilising the Master Chemical Mechanism. The model agreement displayed a strong dependence on the NO concentration. An experimental budget analysis for OH, HO2, RO2 and total ROx demonstrated significant imbalances between HO2 and RO2 production rates. Ozone production rates were calculated from measured radicals and compared to modelled values.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Sara M. Defratyka, James L. France, Rebecca E. Fisher, Dave Lowry, Julianne M. Fernandez, Semra Bakkaloglu, Camille Yver-Kwok, Jean-Daniel Paris, Philippe Bousquet, Tim Arnold, Chris Rennick, Jon Helmore, Nigel Yarrow, and Euan G. Nisbet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1490, 2023
Preprint archived
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We are focused on verification of δ13CH4 measurements in near-source conditions and we have provided an insight into the impact of chosen calculation methods for determined isotopic signatures. Our study offers a step forward for establishing an unified, robust, and reliable analytical technique to determine δ13CH4 of methane sources. Our recommended analytical approach reduces biases and uncertainties coming from measurement conditions, data clustering and various available fitting methods.
Alice Drinkwater, Paul I. Palmer, Liang Feng, Tim Arnold, Xin Lan, Sylvia E. Michel, Robert Parker, and Hartmut Boesch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8429–8452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8429-2023, 2023
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Changes in atmospheric methane over the last few decades are largely unexplained. Previous studies have proposed different hypotheses to explain short-term changes in atmospheric methane. We interpret observed changes in atmospheric methane and stable isotope source signatures (2004–2020). We argue that changes over this period are part of a large-scale shift from high-northern-latitude thermogenic energy emissions to tropical biogenic emissions, particularly from North Africa and South America.
Emily Dowd, Chris Wilson, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Emanuel Gloor, Alistair Manning, and Ruth Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7363–7382, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7363-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7363-2023, 2023
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Surface observations of methane show that the seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) of methane is decreasing in the northern high latitudes (NHLs) but increased globally (1995–2020). The NHL decrease is counterintuitive, as we expect the SCA to increase with increasing concentrations. We use a chemical transport model to investigate changes in SCA in the NHLs. We find well-mixed methane and changes in emissions from Canada, the Middle East, and Europe are the largest contributors to the SCA in NHLs.
Alison L. Redington, Alistair J. Manning, Stephan Henne, Francesco Graziosi, Luke M. Western, Jgor Arduini, Anita L. Ganesan, Christina M. Harth, Michela Maione, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Joseph Pitt, Stefan Reimann, Matthew Rigby, Peter K. Salameh, Peter G. Simmonds, T. Gerard Spain, Kieran Stanley, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray F. Weiss, and Dickon Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7383–7398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7383-2023, 2023
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Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were used in Europe pre-1990, damaging the stratospheric ozone layer. Legislation has controlled production and use, and global emissions have decreased sharply. The global rate of decline in CFC-11 recently slowed and was partly attributed to illegal emission in eastern China. This study concludes that emissions of CFC-11 in western Europe have not contributed to the unexplained part of the global increase in CFC-11 observed in the last decade.
Elena Fillola, Raul Santos-Rodriguez, Alistair Manning, Simon O'Doherty, and Matt Rigby
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1997–2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1997-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1997-2023, 2023
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Lagrangian particle dispersion models are used extensively for the estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes using atmospheric observations. However, these models do not scale well as data volumes increase. Here, we develop a proof-of-concept machine learning emulator that can produce outputs similar to those of the dispersion model, but 50 000 times faster, using only meteorological inputs. This works demonstrates the potential of machine learning to accelerate GHG estimations across the globe.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
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This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Jeff Polton, James Harle, Jason Holt, Anna Katavouta, Dale Partridge, Jenny Jardine, Sarah Wakelin, Julia Rulent, Anthony Wise, Katherine Hutchinson, David Byrne, Diego Bruciaferri, Enda O'Dea, Michela De Dominicis, Pierre Mathiot, Andrew Coward, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Gennadi Lessin, Claudia Gabriela Mayorga-Adame, Valérie Le Guennec, Alex Arnold, and Clément Rousset
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1481–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, 2023
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The aim is to increase the capacity of the modelling community to respond to societally important questions that require ocean modelling. The concept of reproducibility for regional ocean modelling is developed: advocating methods for reproducible workflows and standardised methods of assessment. Then, targeting the NEMO framework, we give practical advice and worked examples, highlighting key considerations that will the expedite development cycle and upskill the user community.
Saqr Munassar, Guillaume Monteil, Marko Scholze, Ute Karstens, Christian Rödenbeck, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2813–2828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2813-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2813-2023, 2023
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Using different transport models results in large errors in optimized fluxes in the atmospheric inversions. Boundary conditions and inversion system configurations lead to a smaller but non-negligible impact. The findings highlight the importance to validate transport models for further developments but also to properly account for such errors in inverse modelling. This will help narrow the convergence of gas estimates reported in the scientific literature from different inversion frameworks.
Steve Widdicombe, Kirsten Isensee, Yuri Artioli, Juan Diego Gaitán-Espitia, Claudine Hauri, Janet A. Newton, Mark Wells, and Sam Dupont
Ocean Sci., 19, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-101-2023, 2023
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Ocean acidification is a global perturbation of the ocean carbonate chemistry as a consequence of increased carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. While great progress has been made over the last decade for chemical monitoring, ocean acidification biological monitoring remains anecdotal. This is a consequence of a lack of standards, general methodological framework, and overall methodology. This paper presents methodology focusing on sensitive traits and rates of change.
Leigh S. Fleming, Andrew C. Manning, Penelope A. Pickers, Grant L. Forster, and Alex J. Etchells
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 387–401, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-387-2023, 2023
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Measurements of atmospheric O2 can help constrain the carbon cycle processes and quantify fossil fuel CO2 emissions; however, measurement of atmospheric O2 is very challenging, and existing analysers are complex systems to build and maintain. We have tested a new O2 analyser (Picarro Inc. G2207-i) in the laboratory and at Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory. We have found that the G2207-i does not perform as well as an existing O2 analyser from Sable Systems Inc.
Kim A. P. Faassen, Linh N. T. Nguyen, Eadin R. Broekema, Bert A. M. Kers, Ivan Mammarella, Timo Vesala, Penelope A. Pickers, Andrew C. Manning, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Harro A. J. Meijer, Wouter Peters, and Ingrid T. Luijkx
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 851–876, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-851-2023, 2023
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The exchange ratio (ER) between atmospheric O2 and CO2 provides a useful tracer for separately estimating photosynthesis and respiration processes in the forest carbon balance. This is highly relevant to better understand the expected biosphere sink, which determines future atmospheric CO2 levels. We therefore measured O2, CO2, and their ER above a boreal forest in Finland and investigated their diurnal behaviour for a representative day, and we show the most suitable way to determine the ER.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Peter Bergamaschi, Arjo Segers, Dominik Brunner, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Stephan Henne, Michel Ramonet, Tim Arnold, Tobias Biermann, Huilin Chen, Sebastien Conil, Marc Delmotte, Grant Forster, Arnoud Frumau, Dagmar Kubistin, Xin Lan, Markus Leuenberger, Matthias Lindauer, Morgan Lopez, Giovanni Manca, Jennifer Müller-Williams, Simon O'Doherty, Bert Scheeren, Martin Steinbacher, Pamela Trisolino, Gabriela Vítková, and Camille Yver Kwok
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13243–13268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13243-2022, 2022
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We present a novel high-resolution inverse modelling system, "FLEXVAR", and its application for the inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions in 2018. The new system combines a high spatial resolution of 7 km x 7 km with a variational data assimilation technique, which allows CH4 emissions to be optimized from individual model grid cells. The high resolution allows the observations to be better reproduced, while the derived emissions show overall good consistency with two existing models.
Angharad C. Stell, Michael Bertolacci, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Matthew Rigby, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Manfredi Manizza, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, Dickon Young, and Anita L. Ganesan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12945–12960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12945-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12945-2022, 2022
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Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance, whose atmospheric abundance has risen throughout the contemporary record. In this work, we carry out the first global hierarchical Bayesian inversion to solve for nitrous oxide emissions. We derive increasing global nitrous oxide emissions over 2011–2020, which are mainly driven by emissions between 0° and 30°N, with the highest emissions recorded in 2020.
Luke M. Western, Alison L. Redington, Alistair J. Manning, Cathy M. Trudinger, Lei Hu, Stephan Henne, Xuekun Fang, Lambert J. M. Kuijpers, Christina Theodoridi, David S. Godwin, Jgor Arduini, Bronwyn Dunse, Andreas Engel, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Paul B. Krummel, Michela Maione, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Hyeri Park, Sunyoung Park, Stefan Reimann, Peter K. Salameh, Daniel Say, Roland Schmidt, Tanja Schuck, Carolina Siso, Kieran M. Stanley, Isaac Vimont, Martin K. Vollmer, Dickon Young, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, Stephen A. Montzka, and Matthew Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9601–9616, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9601-2022, 2022
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The production of ozone-destroying gases is being phased out. Even though production of one of the main ozone-depleting gases, called HCFC-141b, has been declining for many years, the amount that is being released to the atmosphere has been increasing since 2017. We do not know for sure why this is. A possible explanation is that HCFC-141b that was used to make insulating foams many years ago is only now escaping to the atmosphere, or a large part of its production is not being reported.
Xiang Weng, Grant L. Forster, and Peer Nowack
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8385–8402, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8385-2022, 2022
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We use machine learning to quantify the meteorological drivers behind surface ozone variations in China between 2015 and 2019. Our novel approaches show improved performance when compared to previous analysis methods. We highlight that nonlinearity in driver relationships and the impacts of large-scale meteorological phenomena are key to understanding ozone pollution. Moreover, we find that almost half of the observed ozone trend between 2015 and 2019 might have been driven by meteorology.
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Michał Gałkowski, Sophia Walther, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7875–7892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7875-2022, 2022
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The results obtained from ensembles of inversions over 13 years show the largest spread in the a posteriori fluxes over the station set ensemble. Using different prior fluxes in the inversions led to a smaller impact. Drought occurrences in 2018 and 2019 affected CO2 fluxes as seen in net ecosystem exchange estimates. Our study highlights the importance of expanding the atmospheric site network across Europe to better constrain CO2 fluxes in inverse modelling.
Christian Rödenbeck, Tim DeVries, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, and Ralph F. Keeling
Biogeosciences, 19, 2627–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2627-2022, 2022
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The ocean is an important part of the global carbon cycle, taking up about a quarter of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted by burning of fossil fuels and thus slowing down climate change. However, the CO2 uptake by the ocean is, in turn, affected by variability and trends in climate. Here we use carbon measurements in the surface ocean to quantify the response of the oceanic CO2 exchange to environmental conditions and discuss possible mechanisms underlying this response.
Guus J. M. Velders, John S. Daniel, Stephen A. Montzka, Isaac Vimont, Matthew Rigby, Paul B. Krummel, Jens Muhle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, and Dickon Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6087–6101, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022, 2022
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The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past as a result of the phasing out of ozone-depleting substances. Observations indicate that HFCs are used much less in certain refrigeration applications than previously projected. Current policies are projected to reduce emissions and the surface temperature contribution of HFCs from 0.28–0.44 °C to 0.14–0.31 °C in 2100. The Kigali Amendment is projected to reduce the contributions further to 0.04 °C in 2100.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Robert Woodward-Massey, Roberto Sommariva, Lisa K. Whalley, Danny R. Cryer, Trevor Ingham, William J1 Bloss, Sam Cox, James D. Lee, Chris P. Reed, Leigh R. Crilley, Louisa J. Kramer, Brian J. Bandy, Grant L. Forster, Claire E. Reeves, Paul S. Monks, and Dwayne E. Heard
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-207, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-207, 2022
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We measured radicals (OH, HO2, RO2) and OH reactivity at a UK coastal site and compared our observations to the predictions of an MCMv3.3.1 box model. We find variable agreement between measured and modelled radical concentrations and OH reactivity, where the levels of agreement for individual species display strong dependences on NO concentrations. The most substantial disagreement is found for RO2 at high NO (> 1 ppbv), when RO2 levels are underpredicted by a factor of ~10–30.
Alice E. Ramsden, Anita L. Ganesan, Luke M. Western, Matthew Rigby, Alistair J. Manning, Amy Foulds, James L. France, Patrick Barker, Peter Levy, Daniel Say, Adam Wisher, Tim Arnold, Chris Rennick, Kieran M. Stanley, Dickon Young, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3911–3929, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3911-2022, 2022
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Quantifying methane emissions from different sources is a key focus of current research. We present a method for estimating sectoral methane emissions that uses ethane as a tracer for fossil fuel methane. By incorporating variable ethane : methane emission ratios into this model, we produce emissions estimates with improved uncertainty characterisation. This method will be particularly useful for studying methane emissions in areas with complex distributions of sources.
Eric Saboya, Giulia Zazzeri, Heather Graven, Alistair J. Manning, and Sylvia Englund Michel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3595–3613, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3595-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3595-2022, 2022
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Continuous measurements of atmospheric methane concentrations and its carbon-13 isotope have been made in central London since early 2018. These measurements were used to evaluate methane emissions reported in global and UK-specific emission inventories for the London area. Compared to atmospheric methane measurements from March 2018 to October 2020, both inventories are under-reporting natural gas leakage for the London area.
Jens Mühle, Lambert J. M. Kuijpers, Kieran M. Stanley, Matthew Rigby, Luke M. Western, Jooil Kim, Sunyoung Park, Christina M. Harth, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, Simon O'Doherty, Peter K. Salameh, Roland Schmidt, Dickon Young, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ray F. Weiss
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3371–3378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3371-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3371-2022, 2022
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Emissions of the strong greenhouse gas perfluorocyclobutane (c-C4F8) into the atmosphere have been increasing sharply since the early 2000s. These c-C4F8 emissions are highly correlated with the amount of hydrochlorofluorocarbon-22 produced to synthesize polytetrafluoroethylene (known for its non-stick properties) and related chemicals. From this process, c-C4F8 by-product is vented to the atmosphere. Avoiding these unnecessary c-C4F8 emissions could reduce the climate impact of this industry.
Stefan Röttger, Annette Röttger, Claudia Grossi, Arturo Vargas, Ute Karstens, Giorgia Cinelli, Edward Chung, Dafina Kikaj, Chris Rennick, Florian Mertes, and Ileana Radulescu
Adv. Geosci., 57, 37–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-57-37-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-57-37-2022, 2022
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Radon gas is the largest source of public exposure to naturally occurring radioactivity. Radon can also be used, as a tracer to improve indirectly the estimates of greenhouse gases important for supporting successful GHG mitigation strategies.
Both climate and radiation protection research communities need improved traceable low-level atmospheric radon measurements. The EMPIR project 19ENV01 traceRadon started to provide the necessary measurement infrastructure and transfer standards.
Darren R. Clark, Andrew P. Rees, Charissa M. Ferrera, Lisa Al-Moosawi, Paul J. Somerfield, Carolyn Harris, Graham D. Quartly, Stephen Goult, Glen Tarran, and Gennadi Lessin
Biogeosciences, 19, 1355–1376, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1355-2022, 2022
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Measurements of microbial processes were made in the sunlit open ocean during a research cruise (AMT19) between the UK and Chile. These help us to understand how microbial communities maintain the function of remote ecosystems. We find that the nitrogen cycling microbes which produce nitrite respond to changes in the environment. Our insights will aid the development of models that aim to replicate and ultimately project how marine environments may respond to ongoing climate change.
Linh N. T. Nguyen, Harro A. J. Meijer, Charlotte van Leeuwen, Bert A. M. Kers, Hubertus A. Scheeren, Anna E. Jones, Neil Brough, Thomas Barningham, Penelope A. Pickers, Andrew C. Manning, and Ingrid T. Luijkx
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 991–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-991-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-991-2022, 2022
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We present 20-year flask sample records of atmospheric CO2, O2, and APO from the stations Lutjewad (the Netherlands), Mace Head (Ireland), and Halley (Antarctica). Data from Lutjewad and Mace Head show similar long-term trends and seasonal cycles, agreeing with measurements from another station (Weybourne, UK). Measurements from Halley agree partly with those conducted by other institutes. From our 2002–2018 Lutjewad and Mace Head records, we find good agreement for global ocean carbon uptake.
Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Michael Bertolacci, Jenny Fisher, Ann Stavert, Matthew Rigby, Yi Cao, and Noel Cressie
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 45–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-45-2022, 2022
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We present a framework for estimating the sources and sinks (flux) of carbon dioxide from satellite data. The framework is statistical and yields measures of uncertainty alongside all estimates of flux and other parameters in the underlying model. It also allows us to generate other insights, such as the size of errors and biases in the data. The primary aim of this research was to develop a fully statistical flux inversion framework for use by atmospheric scientists.
Jan C. Minx, William F. Lamb, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Monica Crippa, Niklas Döbbeling, Piers M. Forster, Diego Guizzardi, Jos Olivier, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Rigby, Marielle Saunois, Steven J. Smith, Efisio Solazzo, and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5213–5252, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, 2021
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We provide a synthetic dataset on anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. We show that GHG emissions continued to rise across all gases and sectors. Annual average GHG emissions growth slowed, but absolute decadal increases have never been higher in human history. We identify a number of data gaps and data quality issues in global inventories and highlight their importance for monitoring progress towards international climate goals.
Mark F. Lunt, Alistair J. Manning, Grant Allen, Tim Arnold, Stéphane J.-B. Bauguitte, Hartmut Boesch, Anita L. Ganesan, Aoife Grant, Carole Helfter, Eiko Nemitz, Simon J. O'Doherty, Paul I. Palmer, Joseph R. Pitt, Chris Rennick, Daniel Say, Kieran M. Stanley, Ann R. Stavert, Dickon Young, and Matt Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16257–16276, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16257-2021, 2021
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We present an evaluation of the UK's methane emissions between 2013 and 2020 using a network of tall tower measurement sites. We find emissions that are consistent in both magnitude and trend with the UK's reported emissions, with a declining trend driven by a decrease in emissions from England. The impact of various components of the modelling set-up on these findings are explored through a number of sensitivity studies.
Amanda R. Fay, Luke Gregor, Peter Landschützer, Galen A. McKinley, Nicolas Gruber, Marion Gehlen, Yosuke Iida, Goulven G. Laruelle, Christian Rödenbeck, Alizée Roobaert, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4693–4710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4693-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4693-2021, 2021
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The movement of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to the ocean is estimated using surface ocean carbon (pCO2) measurements and an equation including variables such as temperature and wind speed; the choices of these variables lead to uncertainties. We introduce the SeaFlux ensemble which provides carbon flux maps calculated in a consistent manner, thus reducing uncertainty by using common choices for wind speed and a set definition of "global" coverage.
Alistair J. Manning, Alison L. Redington, Daniel Say, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Peter G. Simmonds, Martin K. Vollmer, Jens Mühle, Jgor Arduini, Gerard Spain, Adam Wisher, Michela Maione, Tanja J. Schuck, Kieran Stanley, Stefan Reimann, Andreas Engel, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Ray F. Weiss, Ray Gluckman, Peter N. Brown, John D. Watterson, and Tim Arnold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12739–12755, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12739-2021, 2021
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This paper estimates UK emissions of important greenhouse gases (hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)) using high-quality atmospheric observations and atmospheric modelling. We compare these estimates with those submitted by the UK to the United Nations. We conclude that global concentrations of these gases are still increasing. Our estimates for the UK are 73 % of those reported and that the UK emissions are now falling, demonstrating an impact of UK government policy.
Antoine Berchet, Espen Sollum, Rona L. Thompson, Isabelle Pison, Joël Thanwerdas, Grégoire Broquet, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Adrien Berchet, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Richard Engelen, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Christoph Gerbig, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Stephan Henne, Sander Houweling, Ute Karstens, Werner L. Kutsch, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Guillaume Monteil, Paul I. Palmer, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Elise Potier, Christian Rödenbeck, Marielle Saunois, Marko Scholze, Aki Tsuruta, and Yuanhong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5331–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, 2021
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We present here the Community Inversion Framework (CIF) to help rationalize development efforts and leverage the strengths of individual inversion systems into a comprehensive framework. The CIF is a programming protocol to allow various inversion bricks to be exchanged among researchers.
The ensemble of bricks makes a flexible, transparent and open-source Python-based tool. We describe the main structure and functionalities and demonstrate it in a simple academic case.
Cited articles
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Short summary
The quantity of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO), derived from coincident measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) and oxygen (O2), has been proposed as a tracer for fossil fuel CO2 emissions. In this model sensitivity study, we examine the use of APO for this purpose in the UK and compare our model to observations. We find that our model simulations are most sensitive to uncertainties relating to ocean fluxes and boundary conditions.
The quantity of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO), derived from coincident measurements of...
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