Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019
Antonio Capponi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1
4AQ, UK
Natalie J. Harvey
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate,
Reading, RG6 6ET, UK
Helen F. Dacre
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate,
Reading, RG6 6ET, UK
Keith Beven
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1
4AQ, UK
Cameron Saint
Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Cathie Wells
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate,
Reading, RG6 6ET, UK
Mike R. James
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1
4AQ, UK
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Short summary
Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are hampered by uncertainties in parameters describing the characteristics of volcanic plumes. Uncertainty quantification is vital for making robust flight-planning decisions. We present a method using satellite data to refine a series of volcanic ash dispersion forecasts and quantify these uncertainties. We show how we can improve forecast accuracy and potentially reduce the regions of high risk of volcanic ash relevant to aviation.
Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are hampered by uncertainties in...
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