Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts  using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019

Capponi, Antonio; Harvey, Natalie J.; Dacre, Helen F.; Beven, Keith; Saint, Cameron; Wells, Cathie; James, Mike R.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022

Articles | Volume 22, issue 9

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Articles | Volume 22, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022

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https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022

Articles | Volume 22, issue 9

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Research article

10 May 2022

Research article |

| 10 May 2022

Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019

Antonio Capponi, Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Keith Beven, Cameron Saint, Cathie Wells, and Mike R. James

Antonio Capponi

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

a.capponi2@lancaster.ac.uk

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3008-122X

Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4AQ, UK

Natalie J. Harvey

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0973-5794

Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, RG6 6ET, UK

Helen F. Dacre

Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, RG6 6ET, UK

Keith Beven

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7465-3934

Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4AQ, UK

Cameron Saint

Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK

Cathie Wells

Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, RG6 6ET, UK

Mike R. James

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9177-2588

Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4AQ, UK

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Total article views: 2,642 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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HTML: 1,993
PDF: 580
XML: 69
Total: 2,642
BibTeX: 45
EndNote: 69

Views and downloads (calculated since 09 Nov 2021)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 09 Nov 2021)

Total article views: 1,673 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
1,314	319	40	1,673	34	59

HTML: 1,314
PDF: 319
XML: 40
Total: 1,673
BibTeX: 34
EndNote: 59

Views and downloads (calculated since 10 May 2022)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
May 2022	257	38	5	300
Jun 2022	117	12	1	130
Jul 2022	85	4	0	89
Aug 2022	76	10	0	86
Sep 2022	48	10	0	58
Oct 2022	51	8	0	59
Nov 2022	74	9	0	83
Dec 2022	58	9	0	67
Jan 2023	23	4	0	27
Feb 2023	20	9	0	29
Mar 2023	18	8	1	27
Apr 2023	13	9	0	22
May 2023	22	10	4	36
Jun 2023	27	8	2	37
Jul 2023	20	8	2	30
Aug 2023	13	12	3	28
Sep 2023	9	7	0	16
Oct 2023	15	8	2	25
Nov 2023	9	0	9
Dec 2023	29	8	2	39
Jan 2024	22	6	2	30
Feb 2024	21	9	0	30
Mar 2024	15	23	1	39
Apr 2024	17	5	2	24
May 2024	24	11	5	40
Jun 2024	64	9	3	76
Jul 2024	19	5	1	25
Aug 2024	19	9	1	29
Sep 2024	18	6	0	24
Oct 2024	17	5	0	22
Nov 2024	10	6	1	17
Dec 2024	18	4	1	23
Jan 2025	29	11	0	40
Feb 2025	19	13	0	32
Mar 2025	18	6	1	25

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 10 May 2022)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
May 2022	257	38	5	300
Jun 2022	117	12	1	130
Jul 2022	85	4	0	89
Aug 2022	76	10	0	86
Sep 2022	48	10	0	58
Oct 2022	51	8	0	59
Nov 2022	74	9	0	83
Dec 2022	58	9	0	67
Jan 2023	23	4	0	27
Feb 2023	20	9	0	29
Mar 2023	18	8	1	27
Apr 2023	13	9	0	22
May 2023	22	10	4	36
Jun 2023	27	8	2	37
Jul 2023	20	8	2	30
Aug 2023	13	12	3	28
Sep 2023	9	7	0	16
Oct 2023	15	8	2	25
Nov 2023	9	0	9
Dec 2023	29	8	2	39
Jan 2024	22	6	2	30
Feb 2024	21	9	0	30
Mar 2024	15	23	1	39
Apr 2024	17	5	2	24
May 2024	24	11	5	40
Jun 2024	64	9	3	76
Jul 2024	19	5	1	25
Aug 2024	19	9	1	29
Sep 2024	18	6	0	24
Oct 2024	17	5	0	22
Nov 2024	10	6	1	17
Dec 2024	18	4	1	23
Jan 2025	29	11	0	40
Feb 2025	19	13	0	32
Mar 2025	18	6	1	25

Total article views: 969 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
679	261	29	969	11	10

HTML: 679
PDF: 261
XML: 29
Total: 969
BibTeX: 11
EndNote: 10

Views and downloads (calculated since 09 Nov 2021)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
May 2022	257	38	5	300
Jun 2022	117	12	1	130
Jul 2022	85	4	0	89
Aug 2022	76	10	0	86
Sep 2022	48	10	0	58
Oct 2022	51	8	0	59
Nov 2022	74	9	0	83
Dec 2022	58	9	0	67
Jan 2023	23	4	0	27
Feb 2023	20	9	0	29
Mar 2023	18	8	1	27
Apr 2023	13	9	0	22
May 2023	22	10	4	36
Jun 2023	27	8	2	37
Jul 2023	20	8	2	30
Aug 2023	13	12	3	28
Sep 2023	9	7	0	16
Oct 2023	15	8	2	25
Nov 2023	9	0	9
Dec 2023	29	8	2	39
Jan 2024	22	6	2	30
Feb 2024	21	9	0	30
Mar 2024	15	23	1	39
Apr 2024	17	5	2	24
May 2024	24	11	5	40
Jun 2024	64	9	3	76
Jul 2024	19	5	1	25
Aug 2024	19	9	1	29
Sep 2024	18	6	0	24
Oct 2024	17	5	0	22
Nov 2024	10	6	1	17
Dec 2024	18	4	1	23
Jan 2025	29	11	0	40
Feb 2025	19	13	0	32
Mar 2025	18	6	1	25

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 09 Nov 2021)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
May 2022	257	38	5	300
Jun 2022	117	12	1	130
Jul 2022	85	4	0	89
Aug 2022	76	10	0	86
Sep 2022	48	10	0	58
Oct 2022	51	8	0	59
Nov 2022	74	9	0	83
Dec 2022	58	9	0	67
Jan 2023	23	4	0	27
Feb 2023	20	9	0	29
Mar 2023	18	8	1	27
Apr 2023	13	9	0	22
May 2023	22	10	4	36
Jun 2023	27	8	2	37
Jul 2023	20	8	2	30
Aug 2023	13	12	3	28
Sep 2023	9	7	0	16
Oct 2023	15	8	2	25
Nov 2023	9	0	9
Dec 2023	29	8	2	39
Jan 2024	22	6	2	30
Feb 2024	21	9	0	30
Mar 2024	15	23	1	39
Apr 2024	17	5	2	24
May 2024	24	11	5	40
Jun 2024	64	9	3	76
Jul 2024	19	5	1	25
Aug 2024	19	9	1	29
Sep 2024	18	6	0	24
Oct 2024	17	5	0	22
Nov 2024	10	6	1	17
Dec 2024	18	4	1	23
Jan 2025	29	11	0	40
Feb 2025	19	13	0	32
Mar 2025	18	6	1	25

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Show all Final revised paper only Preprint only

Total article views: 2,642 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 2,583 with geography defined and 59 with unknown origin.

Total article views: 1,673 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,673 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.

Total article views: 969 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 899 with geography defined and 70 with unknown origin.

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	959	36
China	2	395	14
United Kingdom	3	379	14
Germany	4	108	4
India	5	72	2

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	748	44
China	2	226	13
United Kingdom	3	202	12
Germany	4	62	3
India	5	57	3

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	211	21
United Kingdom	2	177	18
China	3	169	17
Germany	4	46	4
Ireland	5	33	3


Total:	0
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959


Total:	0
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748


Total:	0
HTML:	0
PDF:	0
XML:	0

211

Cited

Show all Final revised paper only Preprint only

8 citations as recorded by crossref.

How dependent are quantitative volcanic ash concentration and along‐flight dosage forecasts to model structural choices? L. James et al. 10.1002/met.70003
Quantifying the impact of meteorological uncertainty on emission estimates and the risk to aviation using source inversion for the Raikoke 2019 eruption N. Harvey et al. 10.5194/acp-22-8529-2022
Technical note: Exploring parameter and meteorological uncertainty via emulation in volcanic ash atmospheric dispersion modelling J. Salter et al. 10.5194/acp-24-6251-2024
Quantifying uncertainty in probabilistic volcanic ash hazard forecasts, with an application to weather pattern based wind field sampling J. Phillips et al. 10.1007/s00445-023-01664-x
The 2019 Raikoke eruption as a testbed used by the Volcano Response group for rapid assessment of volcanic atmospheric impacts J. Vernier et al. 10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024
Evolution of aerosol plumes from 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption observed with polarization lidar over central China D. Jing et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.119880
An investigation of changes to commercial aircraft flight paths during volcanic eruptions J. Delbrel et al. 10.1186/s13617-025-00150-7
Using Ensemble Meteorological Data Sets to Treat Meteorological Uncertainties in a Bayesian Volcanic Ash Inverse Modeling System: A Case Study, Grímsvötn 2011 H. Webster & D. Thomson 10.1029/2022JD036469

7 citations as recorded by crossref.

How dependent are quantitative volcanic ash concentration and along‐flight dosage forecasts to model structural choices? L. James et al. 10.1002/met.70003
Quantifying the impact of meteorological uncertainty on emission estimates and the risk to aviation using source inversion for the Raikoke 2019 eruption N. Harvey et al. 10.5194/acp-22-8529-2022
Technical note: Exploring parameter and meteorological uncertainty via emulation in volcanic ash atmospheric dispersion modelling J. Salter et al. 10.5194/acp-24-6251-2024
Quantifying uncertainty in probabilistic volcanic ash hazard forecasts, with an application to weather pattern based wind field sampling J. Phillips et al. 10.1007/s00445-023-01664-x
The 2019 Raikoke eruption as a testbed used by the Volcano Response group for rapid assessment of volcanic atmospheric impacts J. Vernier et al. 10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024
Evolution of aerosol plumes from 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption observed with polarization lidar over central China D. Jing et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.119880
An investigation of changes to commercial aircraft flight paths during volcanic eruptions J. Delbrel et al. 10.1186/s13617-025-00150-7

1 citations as recorded by crossref.

Using Ensemble Meteorological Data Sets to Treat Meteorological Uncertainties in a Bayesian Volcanic Ash Inverse Modeling System: A Case Study, Grímsvötn 2011 H. Webster & D. Thomson 10.1029/2022JD036469

Latest update: 29 Mar 2025

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Short summary

Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are hampered by uncertainties in parameters describing the characteristics of volcanic plumes. Uncertainty quantification is vital for making robust flight-planning decisions. We present a method using satellite data to refine a series of volcanic ash dispersion forecasts and quantify these uncertainties. We show how we can improve forecast accuracy and potentially reduce the regions of high risk of volcanic ash relevant to aviation.

Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are hampered by uncertainties in...

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