Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6115–6134, 2022

Special issue: Satellite observations, in situ measurements and model simulations...

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6115–6134, 2022
Research article
10 May 2022
Research article | 10 May 2022

Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019

Antonio Capponi et al.

Data sets

Ensembles of volcanic ash NAME simulations (01, 03, 08) Capponi Antonio, Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Keith Beven, Cameron Saint, Mike R. James, Cathie A. Wells

Short summary
Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are hampered by uncertainties in parameters describing the characteristics of volcanic plumes. Uncertainty quantification is vital for making robust flight-planning decisions. We present a method using satellite data to refine a series of volcanic ash dispersion forecasts and quantify these uncertainties. We show how we can improve forecast accuracy and potentially reduce the regions of high risk of volcanic ash relevant to aviation.
Final-revised paper