Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7625–7637, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7625-2018
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7625–7637, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7625-2018

Research article 01 Jun 2018

Research article | 01 Jun 2018

On ozone trend detection: using coupled chemistry–climate simulations to investigate early signs of total column ozone recovery

James Keeble et al.

Related authors

Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Assessment of pre-industrial to present-day anthropogenic climate forcing in UKESM1
Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson, Ron Kahana, James Keeble, Byeonghyeon Kim, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Mark Richardson, Eddy Robertson, Jeongbyn Seo, Sungbo Shim, João C. Teixeira, Steven T. Turnock, Jonny Williams, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Stephanie Woodward, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1211–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, 2021
Short summary
Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols – a multi-model comparison
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
Short summary
Polar stratospheric clouds initiated by mountain waves in a global chemistry–climate model: a missing piece in fully modelling polar stratospheric ozone depletion
Andrew Orr, J. Scott Hosking, Aymeric Delon, Lars Hoffmann, Reinhold Spang, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, James Keeble, Nathan Luke Abraham, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12483–12497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12483-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12483-2020, 2020
Short summary
Modelling the potential impacts of the recent, unexpected increase in CFC-11 emissions on total column ozone recovery
James Keeble, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Paul T. Griffiths, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7153–7166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020, 2020
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Slow feedbacks resulting from strongly enhanced atmospheric methane mixing ratios in a chemistry–climate model with mixed-layer ocean
Laura Stecher, Franziska Winterstein, Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, Michael Ponater, and Markus Kunze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 731–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-731-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Impact of the eruption of Mt Pinatubo on the chemical composition of the stratosphere
Markus Kilian, Sabine Brinkop, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11697–11715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11697-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11697-2020, 2020
Short summary
Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models weighted by model performance and independence
Matt Amos, Paul J. Young, J. Scott Hosking, Jean-François Lamarque, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, David A. Plummer, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9961–9977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Inconsistencies between chemistry–climate models and observed lower stratospheric ozone trends since 1998
William T. Ball, Gabriel Chiodo, Marta Abalos, Justin Alsing, and Andrea Stenke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9737–9752, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020, 2020
Short summary

Cited articles

Austin, J., Hood, L. L., and Soukharev, B. E.: Solar cycle variations of stratospheric ozone and temperature in simulations of a coupled chemistry-climate model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1693–1706, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-1693-2007, 2007.
Avallone, L. M. and Prather, M. J.: Photochemical evolution of ozone in the lower tropical stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 1457–1461, https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD03010, 1996.
Bednarz, E. M., Maycock, A. C., Abraham, N. L., Braesicke, P., Dessens, O., and Pyle, J. A.: Future Arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12159–12176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016, 2016.
Download
Short summary
2017 marks the 30th anniversary of the Montreal Protocol, which was implemented to protect the stratospheric ozone layer from the harmful effects of synthetic ozone depleting substances. Since the late 1990s atmospheric concentrations of these species have begun to decline, and as a result ozone concentrations are expected to increase. In this study we use an ensemble of chemistry–climate simulations to investigate recent ozone trends and search for early signs of ozone recovery.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint