Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-343-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-343-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Jan 2016
Research article |
| 18 Jan 2016
Stratospheric ozone change and related climate impacts over 1850–2100 as modelled by the ACCMIP ensemble
F. Iglesias-Suarez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
P. J. Young
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Related authors
No articles found.
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael J. Prather, Alexander T. Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Christopher J. Smith, Steven T. Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2528, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. In this paper, we review its contribution to AR6, and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify remaining challenges concluding with recommendations aimed to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data to address the role of short-lived climate forcers in the Earth system.
Pierluigi Renan Guaita, Riccardo Marzuoli, Leiming Zhang, Steven Turnock, Gerbrand Koren, Oliver Wild, Paola Crippa, and Giacomo Alessandro Gerosa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2573, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2573, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the global impact of tropospheric ozone on wheat crops in the 21st century under various climate scenarios. The research highlights that ozone damage to wheat varies by region and depends on both ozone levels and climate. Vulnerable regions include East Asia, Northern Europe, and the Southern and Eastern edges of the Tibetan Plateau. Our results emphasize the need of policies to reduce ozone levels and mitigate climate change to protect global food security.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Tim Butler, Jose A. Adame, Rupal Ambulkar, Stephen R. Arnold, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Douglas S. Hamilton, Min Huang, Hayley Hung, Johannes W. Kaiser, Jacek W. Kaminski, Christophe Knote, Gerbrand Koren, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Meiyun Lin, Tianjia Liu, Jianmin Ma, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Elisa Bergas Masso, Jessica L. McCarty, Mariano Mertens, Mark Parrington, Helene Peiro, Pallavi Saxena, Saurabh Sonwani, Vanisa Surapipith, Damaris Tan, Wenfu Tang, Veerachai Tanpipat, Kostas Tsigaridis, Christine Wiedinmyer, Oliver Wild, Yuanyu Xie, and Paquita Zuidema
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-126, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-126, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
The multi-model experiment design of the HTAP3 Fires project takes a multi-pollutant approach to improving our understanding of transboundary transport of wildland fire and agricultural burning emissions and their impacts. The experiments are designed with the goal of answering science policy questions related to fires. The options for the multi-model approach, including inputs, outputs, and model set up are discussed, and the official recommendations for the project are presented.
Lily Gouldsbrough, Ryan Hossaini, Emma Eastoe, Paul J. Young, and Massimo Vieno
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3163–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution spatial fields of surface ozone are used to understand spikes in ozone concentration and predict their impact on public health. Such fields are routinely output from complex mathematical models for atmospheric conditions. These outputs are on a coarse spatial resolution and the highest concentrations tend to be biased. Using a novel data-driven machine learning methodology, we show how such output can be corrected to produce fields with both lower bias and higher resolution.
Ailish M. Graham, Richard J. Pope, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip S. Dhomse, Matilda Pimlott, Wuhu Feng, Vikas Singh, Ying Chen, Oliver Wild, Ranjeet Sokhi, and Gufran Beig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 789–806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper uses novel satellite datasets and high-resolution emissions datasets alongside a back-trajectory model to investigate the balance of local and external sources influencing NOx air pollution changes in Delhi. We find in the post-monsoon season that NOx from local and non-local transport emissions contributes most to poor air quality in Delhi. Therefore, air quality mitigation strategies in Delhi and surrounding regions are used to control this issue.
Xuewei Hou, Oliver Wild, Bin Zhu, and James Lee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15395–15411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15395-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15395-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In response to the climate crisis, many countries have committed to net zero in a certain future year. The impacts of net-zero scenarios on tropospheric O3 are less well studied and remain unclear. In this study, we quantified the changes of tropospheric O3 budgets, spatiotemporal distributions of future surface O3 in east Asia and regional O3 source contributions for 2060 under a net-zero scenario using the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and online O3-tagging methods.
Zhenze Liu, Oliver Wild, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13755–13768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of net-zero policies on surface ozone pollution in China. A chemistry–climate model is used to simulate ozone changes driven by local and external emissions, methane, and warmer climates. A deep learning model is applied to generate more robust ozone projection, and we find that the benefits of net-zero policies may be overestimated with the chemistry–climate model. Nevertheless, it is clear that the policies can still substantially reduce ozone pollution in future.
Ernesto Reyes-Villegas, Douglas Lowe, Jill S. Johnson, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Eoghan Darbyshire, Michael Flynn, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Ying Chen, Oliver Wild, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Alex Archibald, Siddhartha Singh, Manish Shrivastava, Rahul A. Zaveri, Vikas Singh, Gufran Beig, Ranjeet Sokhi, and Gordon McFiggans
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5763–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5763-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5763-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Organic aerosols (OAs), their sources and their processes remain poorly understood. The volatility basis set (VBS) approach, implemented in air quality models such as WRF-Chem, can be a useful tool to describe primary OA (POA) production and aging. However, the main disadvantage is its complexity. We used a Gaussian process simulator to reproduce model results and to estimate the sources of model uncertainty. We do this by comparing the outputs with OA observations made at Delhi, India, in 2018.
Zixuan Jia, Carlos Ordóñez, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Steven T. Turnock, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2829–2842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the influence of the winter large-scale circulation on daily concentrations of PM2.5 and their sensitivity to emissions. The new proposed circulation index can effectively distinguish different levels of air pollution and explain changes in PM2.5 sensitivity to emissions from local and surrounding regions. We then project future changes in PM2.5 concentrations using this index and find an increase in PM2.5 concentrations over the region due to climate change.
David S. Stevenson, Richard G. Derwent, Oliver Wild, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14243–14252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric methane’s growth rate rose by 50 % in 2020 relative to 2019. Lower nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions tend to increase methane’s atmospheric residence time; lower carbon monoxide (CO) and non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions decrease its lifetime. Combining model sensitivities with emission changes, we find that COVID-19 lockdown emission reductions can explain over half the observed increases in methane in 2020.
Zhenze Liu, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12543–12557, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Weaknesses in process representation in chemistry–climate models lead to biases in simulating surface ozone and to uncertainty in projections of future ozone change. We develop a deep learning model to demonstrate the feasibility of ozone bias correction and show its capability in providing improved assessments of the impacts of climate and emission changes on future air quality, along with valuable information to guide future model development.
Zixuan Jia, Ruth M. Doherty, Carlos Ordóñez, Chaofan Li, Oliver Wild, Shipra Jain, and Xiao Tang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6471–6487, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6471-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the modulation of daily PM2.5 over three major populated regions in China by regional meteorology and large-scale circulation during winter. These results demonstrate the benefits of considering the large-scale circulation for air quality studies. The novel circulation indices proposed here can explain a considerable fraction of the day-to-day variability of PM2.5 and can be combined with regional meteorology to improve our capability to predict the variability of PM2.5.
Zhenze Liu, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1209–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1209-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1209-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tropospheric ozone is important to future air quality and climate, and changing emissions and climate influence ozone. We investigate the evolution of ozone and ozone sensitivity from the present day (2004–2014) to the future (2045–2055) and explore the main drivers of ozone changes from global and regional perspectives. This helps guide suitable emission control strategies to mitigate ozone pollution.
Michael Biggart, Jenny Stocker, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, David Carruthers, Sue Grimmond, Yiqun Han, Pingqing Fu, and Simone Kotthaus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13687–13711, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13687-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13687-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Heat-related illnesses are of increasing concern in China given its rapid urbanisation and our ever-warming climate. We examine the relative impacts that land surface properties and anthropogenic heat have on the urban heat island (UHI) in Beijing using ADMS-Urban. Air temperature measurements and satellite-derived land surface temperatures provide valuable means of evaluating modelled spatiotemporal variations. This work provides critical information for urban planners and UHI mitigation.
Edmund Ryan and Oliver Wild
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5373–5391, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5373-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric chemistry transport models are important tools to investigate the local, regional and global controls on atmospheric composition and air quality. In this study, we estimate some of the model parameters using machine learning and statistics. Our findings identify the level of error and spatial coverage in the O2 and CO data that are needed to achieve good parameter estimates. We also highlight the benefits of using multiple constraints to calibrate atmospheric chemistry models.
Zhenze Liu, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Michael Hollaway, and Fiona M. O’Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10689–10706, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10689-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10689-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Surface ozone (O3) has become the main cause of atmospheric pollution in the summertime in China since 2013. We find that 70 % reductions in NOx emissions are required to reduce O3 pollution in most of industrial regions of China, and controls in VOC emissions are very important. The new chemical scheme developed for a global chemistry–climate model not only captures the regional air pollution but also benefits the future studies of regional air-quality–climate interactions.
Baozhu Ge, Danhui Xu, Oliver Wild, Xuefeng Yao, Junhua Wang, Xueshun Chen, Qixin Tan, Xiaole Pan, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9441–9454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9441-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9441-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, an improved sequential sampling method is developed and implemented to estimate the contribution of below-cloud and in-cloud wet deposition over four years of measurements in Beijing. We find that the contribution of below-cloud scavenging for Ca2+, SO4 2–, and NH4+ decreases from above 50 % in 2014 to below 40 % in 2017. This suggests that the Action Plan has mitigated particulate matter pollution in the surface layer and hence decreased scavenging due to the washout process.
Tabish Umar Ansari, Oliver Wild, Edmund Ryan, Ying Chen, Jie Li, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4471–4485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4471-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4471-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use novel modelling approaches to quantify the lingering effects of 1 d local and regional emission controls on subsequent days, the effects of longer continuous emission controls of individual sectors over different regions, and the effects of combined emission controls of multiple sectors and regions on air quality in Beijing under varying weather conditions to inform precise short-term emission control policies for avoiding heavy haze pollution in Beijing.
Paul T. Griffiths, Lee T. Murray, Guang Zeng, Youngsub Matthew Shin, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Ian E. Galbally, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Jane Liu, Omid Moeini, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, David Tarasick, Simone Tilmes, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Paul J. Young, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4187–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the CMIP6 Historical and future simulations for tropospheric ozone, a species which is important for many aspects of atmospheric chemistry. We show that the current generation of models agrees well with observations, being particularly successful in capturing trends in surface ozone and its vertical distribution in the troposphere. We analyse the factors that control ozone and show that they evolve over the period of the CMIP6 experiments.
Rutambhara Joshi, Dantong Liu, Eiko Nemitz, Ben Langford, Neil Mullinger, Freya Squires, James Lee, Yunfei Wu, Xiaole Pan, Pingqing Fu, Simone Kotthaus, Sue Grimmond, Qiang Zhang, Ruili Wu, Oliver Wild, Michael Flynn, Hugh Coe, and James Allan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 147–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-147-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Black carbon (BC) is a component of particulate matter which has significant effects on climate and human health. Sources of BC include biomass burning, transport, industry and domestic cooking and heating. In this study, we measured BC emissions in Beijing, finding a dominance of traffic emissions over all other sources. The quantitative method presented here has benefits for revising widely used emissions inventories and for understanding BC sources with impacts on air quality and climate.
W. Joe F. Acton, Zhonghui Huang, Brian Davison, Will S. Drysdale, Pingqing Fu, Michael Hollaway, Ben Langford, James Lee, Yanhui Liu, Stefan Metzger, Neil Mullinger, Eiko Nemitz, Claire E. Reeves, Freya A. Squires, Adam R. Vaughan, Xinming Wang, Zhaoyi Wang, Oliver Wild, Qiang Zhang, Yanli Zhang, and C. Nicholas Hewitt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15101–15125, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15101-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15101-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Air quality in Beijing is of concern to both policy makers and the general public. In order to address concerns about air quality it is vital that the sources of atmospheric pollutants are understood. This work presents the first top-down measurement of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions in Beijing. These measurements are used to evaluate the emissions inventory and assess the impact of VOC emission from the city centre on atmospheric chemistry.
Matt Amos, Paul J. Young, J. Scott Hosking, Jean-François Lamarque, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, David A. Plummer, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9961–9977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models. To do so, we employ a method, more advanced and skilful than the current multi-model mean standard, which is applicable to other ensemble analyses. It calculates the performance and similarity of the models, which we then use to weight the model. Calculating model similarity allows us to account for models which are constructed from similar components.
Freya A. Squires, Eiko Nemitz, Ben Langford, Oliver Wild, Will S. Drysdale, W. Joe F. Acton, Pingqing Fu, C. Sue B. Grimmond, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, C. Nicholas Hewitt, Michael Hollaway, Simone Kotthaus, James Lee, Stefan Metzger, Natchaya Pingintha-Durden, Marvin Shaw, Adam R. Vaughan, Xinming Wang, Ruili Wu, Qiang Zhang, and Yanli Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8737–8761, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8737-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Significant air quality problems exist in megacities like Beijing, China. To manage air pollution, legislators need a clear understanding of pollutant emissions. However, emissions inventories have large uncertainties, and reliable field measurements of pollutant emissions are required to constrain them. This work presents the first measurements of traffic-dominated emissions in Beijing which suggest that inventories overestimate these emissions in the region during both winter and summer.
Oliver Wild, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Fiona O'Connor, Jean-François Lamarque, Edmund M. Ryan, and Lindsay Lee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4047–4058, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4047-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4047-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Global models of tropospheric chemistry and transport show a persistent diversity in results that has not been fully explained. We demonstrate the first use of global sensitivity analysis consistently across three independent models to explore these differences and reveal both clear similarities and surprising differences which have important implications for our assessment of future atmospheric composition change.
Alexander T. Archibald, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Fraser Dennison, Sandip S. Dhomse, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Alan J. Hewitt, Richard S. Hill, Colin E. Johnson, James Keeble, Marcus O. Köhler, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Carlos Ordóñez, Richard J. Pope, Steven T. Rumbold, Maria R. Russo, Nicholas H. Savage, Alistair Sellar, Marc Stringer, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1223–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). UKCA StratTrop represents a substantial step forward compared to previous versions of UKCA. We show here that it is fully suited to the challenges of representing interactions in a coupled Earth system model and identify key areas and components for future development that will make it even better in the future.
Marios Panagi, Zoë L. Fleming, Paul S. Monks, Matthew J. Ashfold, Oliver Wild, Michael Hollaway, Qiang Zhang, Freya A. Squires, and Joshua D. Vande Hey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2825–2838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2825-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2825-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, using dispersion modelling with emission inventories it was determined that on average 45 % of the total CO pollution that affects Beijing is transported from other areas. About half of the CO comes from beyond the immediate surrounding areas. Finally three classification types of pollution were identified and used to analyse the APHH winter campaign. The results can inform targeted control measures to be implemented in Beijing and the other regions to tackle air quality problems.
Michael Biggart, Jenny Stocker, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Michael Hollaway, David Carruthers, Jie Li, Qiang Zhang, Ruili Wu, Simone Kotthaus, Sue Grimmond, Freya A. Squires, James Lee, and Zongbo Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2755–2780, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2755-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2755-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient air pollution is a major cause of premature death in China. We examine the street-scale variation of pollutant levels in Beijing using air pollution dispersion and chemistry model ADMS-Urban. Campaign measurements are compared with simulated pollutant levels, providing a valuable means of evaluating the impact of key processes on urban air quality. Air quality modelling at such fine scales is essential for human exposure studies and for informing choices on future emission controls.
Ying Chen, Oliver Wild, Edmund Ryan, Saroj Kumar Sahu, Douglas Lowe, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Yu Wang, Gordon McFiggans, Tabish Ansari, Vikas Singh, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Alex Archibald, and Gufran Beig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 499–514, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-499-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-499-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
PM2.5 and O3 are two major air pollutants. Some mitigation strategies focusing on reducing PM2.5 may lead to substantial increase in O3. We use statistical emulation combined with atmospheric transport model to perform thousands of sensitivity numerical studies to identify the major sources of PM2.5 and O3 and to develop strategies targeted at both pollutants. Our scientific evidence suggests that regional coordinated emission control is required to mitigate PM2.5 whilst preventing O3 increase.
Michael Hollaway, Oliver Wild, Ting Yang, Yele Sun, Weiqi Xu, Conghui Xie, Lisa Whalley, Eloise Slater, Dwayne Heard, and Dantong Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9699–9714, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9699-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9699-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study, for the first time, uses combinations of aerosol and lidar data to drive an offline photolysis scheme. Absorbing species are shown to have the greatest impact on photolysis rate constants in the winter and scattering aerosol are shown to dominate responses in the summer. During haze episodes, aerosols are shown to produce a greater impact than cloud cover. The findings demonstrate the potential photochemical impacts of haze pollution in a highly polluted urban environment.
Tabish Umar Ansari, Oliver Wild, Jie Li, Ting Yang, Weiqi Xu, Yele Sun, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8651–8668, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8651-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8651-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the effectiveness of short-term emission controls on haze events in Beijing in October–November 2014 with high-resolution model studies. The model captures observed hourly variation in key pollutants well, but representation of boundary layer processes remains a key constraint. The controls contributed to improved air quality in early November but would not have been sufficient had the meteorology been less favourable. We quantify the much more stringent controls needed in that case.
Zongbo Shi, Tuan Vu, Simone Kotthaus, Roy M. Harrison, Sue Grimmond, Siyao Yue, Tong Zhu, James Lee, Yiqun Han, Matthias Demuzere, Rachel E. Dunmore, Lujie Ren, Di Liu, Yuanlin Wang, Oliver Wild, James Allan, W. Joe Acton, Janet Barlow, Benjamin Barratt, David Beddows, William J. Bloss, Giulia Calzolai, David Carruthers, David C. Carslaw, Queenie Chan, Lia Chatzidiakou, Yang Chen, Leigh Crilley, Hugh Coe, Tie Dai, Ruth Doherty, Fengkui Duan, Pingqing Fu, Baozhu Ge, Maofa Ge, Daobo Guan, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, Kebin He, Mathew Heal, Dwayne Heard, C. Nicholas Hewitt, Michael Hollaway, Min Hu, Dongsheng Ji, Xujiang Jiang, Rod Jones, Markus Kalberer, Frank J. Kelly, Louisa Kramer, Ben Langford, Chun Lin, Alastair C. Lewis, Jie Li, Weijun Li, Huan Liu, Junfeng Liu, Miranda Loh, Keding Lu, Franco Lucarelli, Graham Mann, Gordon McFiggans, Mark R. Miller, Graham Mills, Paul Monk, Eiko Nemitz, Fionna O'Connor, Bin Ouyang, Paul I. Palmer, Carl Percival, Olalekan Popoola, Claire Reeves, Andrew R. Rickard, Longyi Shao, Guangyu Shi, Dominick Spracklen, David Stevenson, Yele Sun, Zhiwei Sun, Shu Tao, Shengrui Tong, Qingqing Wang, Wenhua Wang, Xinming Wang, Xuejun Wang, Zifang Wang, Lianfang Wei, Lisa Whalley, Xuefang Wu, Zhijun Wu, Pinhua Xie, Fumo Yang, Qiang Zhang, Yanli Zhang, Yuanhang Zhang, and Mei Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7519–7546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
APHH-Beijing is a collaborative international research programme to study the sources, processes and health effects of air pollution in Beijing. This introduction to the special issue provides an overview of (i) the APHH-Beijing programme, (ii) the measurement and modelling activities performed as part of it and (iii) the air quality and meteorological conditions during joint intensive field campaigns as a core activity within APHH-Beijing.
Arlene M. Fiore, Emily V. Fischer, George P. Milly, Shubha Pandey Deolal, Oliver Wild, Daniel A. Jaffe, Johannes Staehelin, Olivia E. Clifton, Dan Bergmann, William Collins, Frank Dentener, Ruth M. Doherty, Bryan N. Duncan, Bernd Fischer, Stefan Gilge, Peter G. Hess, Larry W. Horowitz, Alexandru Lupu, Ian A. MacKenzie, Rokjin Park, Ludwig Ries, Michael G. Sanderson, Martin G. Schultz, Drew T. Shindell, Martin Steinbacher, David S. Stevenson, Sophie Szopa, Christoph Zellweger, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15345–15361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach for applying northern midlatitude mountaintop peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN) measurements and a multi-model ensemble during April to constrain the influence of continental-scale anthropogenic precursor emissions on PAN. Our findings imply a role for carefully coordinated multi-model ensembles in helping identify observations for discriminating among widely varying (and poorly constrained) model responses of atmospheric constituents to changes in emissions.
Edmund Ryan, Oliver Wild, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Lindsay Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3131–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3131-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3131-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) identifies which parameters of a model most affect its output. We performed GSA using statistical emulators as surrogates of two slow-running atmospheric chemistry transport models. Due to the high dimension of the model outputs, we considered two alternative methods: one that reduced the output dimension and one that did not require an emulator. The alternative methods accurately performed the GSA but were significantly faster than the emulator-only method.
Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Frank J. Dentener, Yanko Davila, Louisa K. Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Gerd A. Folberth, Daven K. Henze, Jan E. Jonson, Terry J. Keating, Sudo Kengo, Meiyun Lin, Marianne Lund, Simone Tilmes, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8953–8978, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A simple parameterisation was developed in this study to provide a rapid assessment of the impacts and uncertainties associated with future emission control strategies by predicting changes to surface ozone air quality and near-term climate forcing of ozone. Future emissions scenarios based on currently implemented legislation are shown to worsen surface ozone air quality and enhance near-term climate warming, with changes in methane becoming increasingly important in the future.
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, Douglas E. Kinnison, Alexandru Rap, Amanda C. Maycock, Oliver Wild, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6121–6139, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6121-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6121-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores future ozone radiative forcing (RF) and the relative contribution due to different drivers. Climate-induced ozone RF is largely the result of the interplay between lightning-produced ozone and enhanced ozone destruction in a warmer and wetter atmosphere. These results demonstrate the importance of stratospheric–tropospheric interactions and the stratosphere as a key region controlling a large fraction of the tropospheric ozone RF.
Ruth M. Doherty, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, David A. Plummer, Michael J. Prather, Oliver Wild, Meiyun Lin, Drew T. Shindell, and Ian A. Mackenzie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14219–14237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how climate change impacts global air pollution transport. To study transport changes, we use a carbon monoxide (CO) tracer species emitted from global sources. We find robust and consistent changes in CO-tracer distributions in climate change simulations performed by four chemistry–climate models in different seasons. We highlight the importance of the co-location of emission source regions and controlling transport processes in determining future pollution transport.
D. L. Finney, R. M. Doherty, O. Wild, and N. L. Abraham
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7507–7522, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7507-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7507-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning is a source of nitric oxide (NO) and, through chemical reactions of NO, impacts ozone production. A new method for modelling global lightning markedly alters ozone concentration in the upper troposphere and frequency characteristics of ozone production compared to earlier treatments. Simulated lightning and ozone concentrations now better match observations. Reducing uncertainties associated with lightning NO is important for understanding atmospheric composition and radiative forcing.
H. S. Chen, Z. F. Wang, J. Li, X. Tang, B. Z. Ge, X. L. Wu, O. Wild, and G. R. Carmichael
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2857–2876, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2857-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2857-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A new global nested atmospheric mercury transport model was developed and introduced. Model performance was found significantly better in North America and Europe than in East Asia. Nested simulation has been conducted in East Asia and shows improved skill at capturing the high spatial variability of Hg concentrations and deposition. The trans-boundary transport of Chinese primary anthropogenic mercury emissions was quantified for the first time.
P. S. Monks, A. T. Archibald, A. Colette, O. Cooper, M. Coyle, R. Derwent, D. Fowler, C. Granier, K. S. Law, G. E. Mills, D. S. Stevenson, O. Tarasova, V. Thouret, E. von Schneidemesser, R. Sommariva, O. Wild, and M. L. Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8889–8973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8889-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8889-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone holds a certain fascination in atmospheric science. It is ubiquitous in the atmosphere, central to tropospheric oxidation chemistry, and yet harmful to human and ecosystem health as well as being an important greenhouse gas. It is not emitted into the atmosphere but is a byproduct of the very oxidation chemistry it largely initiates. This review examines current understanding of the processes regulating tropospheric ozone at global to local scales from both measurements and models.
C. Hardacre, O. Wild, and L. Emberson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6419–6436, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6419-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6419-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The dry deposition of ozone to the Earth's surface is an important process as it controls both the removal of this potent pollutant from the atmosphere and its uptake by vegetation. It is necessary to use numerical models to study this process at the global scale, but many models to represent dry deposition lag behind current understanding. In this paper we study the dry deposition process in global models and highlight measures that will allow these models to be critically evaluated.
D. L. Finney, R. M. Doherty, O. Wild, H. Huntrieser, H. C. Pumphrey, and A. M. Blyth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12665–12682, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12665-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12665-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning is important in atmospheric chemistry models as a source of
nitrogen oxides which affect the greenhouse gases ozone and methane. We
present a new approach to modelling lightning using the upward movement of
ice in clouds, an essential part of the charging mechanism in thunderstorms.
The new approach performs well compared to those already in use and provides
a novel, physically based scheme that has the potential to improve the
robustness of simulated flash rates and emissions.
F. M. O'Connor, C. E. Johnson, O. Morgenstern, N. L. Abraham, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, G. A. Folberth, M. G. Sanderson, P. J. Telford, A. Voulgarakis, P. J. Young, G. Zeng, W. J. Collins, and J. A. Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 41–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, 2014
B. Hassler, P. J. Young, R. W. Portmann, G. E. Bodeker, J. S. Daniel, K. H. Rosenlof, and S. Solomon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5533–5550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5533-2013, 2013
V. Naik, A. Voulgarakis, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Lin, M. J. Prather, P. J. Young, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, T. P. C. van Noije, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5277–5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, 2013
K. W. Bowman, D. T. Shindell, H. M. Worden, J.F. Lamarque, P. J. Young, D. S. Stevenson, Z. Qu, M. de la Torre, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. B. Dalsøren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. M. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. A. Plummer, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, G. Zeng, S. S. Kulawik, A. M. Aghedo, and J. R. Worden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4057–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, 2013
D. T. Shindell, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Schulz, M. Flanner, C. Jiao, M. Chin, P. J. Young, Y. H. Lee, L. Rotstayn, N. Mahowald, G. Milly, G. Faluvegi, Y. Balkanski, W. J. Collins, A. J. Conley, S. Dalsoren, R. Easter, S. Ghan, L. Horowitz, X. Liu, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, T. Takemura, A. Voulgarakis, J.-H. Yoon, and F. Lo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2939–2974, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, 2013
D. S. Stevenson, P. J. Young, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, A. Voulgarakis, R. B. Skeie, S. B. Dalsoren, G. Myhre, T. K. Berntsen, G. A. Folberth, S. T. Rumbold, W. J. Collins, I. A. MacKenzie, R. M. Doherty, G. Zeng, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, D. A. Plummer, S. A. Strode, L. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, S. Szopa, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, B. Josse, I. Cionni, M. Righi, V. Eyring, A. Conley, K. W. Bowman, O. Wild, and A. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
P. J. Young, A. T. Archibald, K. W. Bowman, J.-F. Lamarque, V. Naik, D. S. Stevenson, S. Tilmes, A. Voulgarakis, O. Wild, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013
G. E. Bodeker, B. Hassler, P. J. Young, and R. W. Portmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 31–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-31-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-31-2013, 2013
J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, B. Josse, P. J. Young, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. Dalsoren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, S. J. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, and G. Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
On the atmospheric budget of 1,2-dichloroethane and its impact on stratospheric chlorine and ozone (2002–2020)
The return to 1980 stratospheric halogen levels: a moving target in ozone assessments from 2006 to 2022
The impact of dehydration and extremely low HCl values in the Antarctic stratospheric vortex in mid-winter on ozone loss in spring
Beyond self-healing: stabilizing and destabilizing photochemical adjustment of the ozone layer
Solar FTIR measurements of NOx vertical distributions – Part 2: Experiment-based scaling factors describing the daytime variation in stratospheric NOx
Technical note: Evaluation of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Cy48R1 upgrade of June 2023
Ozone trends in homogenized Umkehr, Ozonesonde, and COH overpass records
Protection without poison: Why tropical ozone maximizes in the interior of the atmosphere
Analysis of a newly homogenised ozonesonde dataset from Lauder, New Zealand
Correction of stratospheric age of air (AoA) derived from sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) for the effect of chemical sinks
Opinion: Stratospheric ozone – depletion, recovery and new challenges
Quantum yields of CHDO above 300 nm
Sensitivities of atmospheric composition and climate to altitude and latitude of hypersonic aircraft emissions
Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances over the recent past – Part 2: Impacts on ozone
N2O as a regression proxy for dynamical variability in stratospheric trace gas trends
The influence of future changes in springtime Arctic ozone on stratospheric and surface climate
Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change
The impact of an extreme solar event on the middle atmosphere: a case study
The future ozone trends in changing climate simulated with SOCOLv4
Atmospheric distribution of HCN from satellite observations and 3-D model simulations
Indicators of the ozone recovery for selected sites in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes derived from various total column ozone datasets (1980–2020)
The historical ozone trends simulated with the SOCOLv4 and their comparison with observations and reanalyses
Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances over the recent past – Part 1: Stratospheric chlorine budget and the role of transport
Effects of reanalysis forcing fields on ozone trends and age of air from a chemical transport model
The influence of energetic particle precipitation on Antarctic stratospheric chlorine and ozone over the 20th century
From the middle stratosphere to the surface, using nitrous oxide to constrain the stratosphere–troposphere exchange of ozone
An Arctic ozone hole in 2020 if not for the Montreal Protocol
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
Processes influencing lower stratospheric water vapour in monsoon anticyclones: insights from Lagrangian modelling
Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100
Slow feedbacks resulting from strongly enhanced atmospheric methane mixing ratios in a chemistry–climate model with mixed-layer ocean
Impact of the eruption of Mt Pinatubo on the chemical composition of the stratosphere
Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models weighted by model performance and independence
Inconsistencies between chemistry–climate models and observed lower stratospheric ozone trends since 1998
Reformulating the bromine alpha factor and equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC): evolution of ozone destruction rates of bromine and chlorine in future climate scenarios
Analysis and attribution of total column ozone changes over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979–2017
Seasonal impact of biogenic very short-lived bromocarbons on lowermost stratospheric ozone between 60° N and 60° S during the 21st century
Modelling the potential impacts of the recent, unexpected increase in CFC-11 emissions on total column ozone recovery
The potential impacts of a sulfur- and halogen-rich supereruption such as Los Chocoyos on the atmosphere and climate
Technical note: Intermittent reduction of the stratospheric ozone over northern Europe caused by a storm in the Atlantic Ocean
Possible implications of enhanced chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations on ozone
Technical note: Reanalysis of Aura MLS chemical observations
Separating the role of direct radiative heating and photolysis in modulating the atmospheric response to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle forcing
Reactive nitrogen (NOy) and ozone responses to energetic electron precipitation during Southern Hemisphere winter
Implication of strongly increased atmospheric methane concentrations for chemistry–climate connections
Multitimescale variations in modeled stratospheric water vapor derived from three modern reanalysis products
How robust are stratospheric age of air trends from different reanalyses?
Evaluation of CESM1 (WACCM) free-running and specified dynamics atmospheric composition simulations using global multispecies satellite data records
Chlorine nitrate in the atmosphere
Linking uncertainty in simulated Arctic ozone loss to uncertainties in modelled tropical stratospheric water vapour
Ryan Hossaini, David Sherry, Zihao Wang, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, David E. Oram, Karina E. Adcock, Stephen A. Montzka, Isobel J. Simpson, Andrea Mazzeo, Amber A. Leeson, Elliot Atlas, and Charles C.-K. Chou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13457–13475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
DCE (1,2-dichloroethane) is an industrial chemical used to produce PVC (polyvinyl chloride). We analysed DCE production data to estimate global DCE emissions (2002–2020). The emissions were included in an atmospheric model and evaluated by comparing simulated DCE to DCE measurements in the troposphere. We show that DCE contributes ozone-depleting Cl to the stratosphere and that this has increased with increasing DCE emissions. DCE’s impact on stratospheric O3 is currently small but non-zero.
Megan J. Lickley, John S. Daniel, Laura A. McBride, Ross J. Salawitch, and Guus J. M. Velders
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13081–13099, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The expected ozone recovery date was delayed by 17 years between the 2006 and 2022 international scientific assessments of ozone depletion. We quantify the primary drivers of this delay. Changes in the metric used to estimate ozone recovery explain ca. 5 years of this delay. Of the remaining 12 years, changes in estimated banks, atmospheric lifetimes, and emission projections explain 4, 3.5, and 3 years of this delay, respectively.
Yiran Zhang-Liu, Rolf Müller, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Sabine Robrecht, Bärbel Vogel, Abdul Mannan Zafar, and Ralph Lehmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12557–12574, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12557-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12557-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
HCl null cycles in Antarctica are important for maintaining high values of ozone-destroying chlorine in Antarctic spring. These HCl null cycles are not affected by (1) using the most recent recommendations of chemical kinetics (compared to older recommendations), (2) accounting for dehydration in the Antarctic winter vortex, and (3) considering the observed (but unexplained) depletion of HCl in mid-winter in the Antarctic vortex throughout Antarctic winter.
Aaron Match, Edwin P. Gerber, and Stephan Fueglistaler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10305–10322, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's ozone layer absorbs incoming UV light, protecting life. Removing ozone aloft allows UV light to penetrate deeper, where it is known to produce new ozone, leading to "self-healing" that partially stabilizes total ozone. However, a photochemistry model shows that, above 40 km in the tropics, deeper-penetrating UV destroys ozone, destabilizing the total ozone. Photochemical theory reveals that this destabilizing regime occurs where overhead ozone is below a key threshold.
Pinchas Nürnberg, Sarah A. Strode, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10001–10012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10001-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We created a set of scaling factors describing the diurnal increase in stratospheric nitrogen oxides above Zugspitze, Germany. We used these factors to validate recently published model simulation data. On the one hand, this validation enables the use of the validated data to better understand the stratospheric photochemistry. On the other hand, it can improve satellite validation, which has implications for the understanding of urban smog events and other pollution events in the troposphere.
Henk Eskes, Athanasios Tsikerdekis, Melanie Ades, Mihai Alexe, Anna Carlin Benedictow, Yasmine Bennouna, Lewis Blake, Idir Bouarar, Simon Chabrillat, Richard Engelen, Quentin Errera, Johannes Flemming, Sebastien Garrigues, Jan Griesfeller, Vincent Huijnen, Luka Ilić, Antje Inness, John Kapsomenakis, Zak Kipling, Bavo Langerock, Augustin Mortier, Mark Parrington, Isabelle Pison, Mikko Pitkänen, Samuel Remy, Andreas Richter, Anja Schoenhardt, Michael Schulz, Valerie Thouret, Thorsten Warneke, Christos Zerefos, and Vincent-Henri Peuch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9475–9514, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9475-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides global analyses and forecasts of aerosols and trace gases in the atmosphere. On 27 June 2023 a major upgrade, Cy48R1, became operational. Comparisons with in situ, surface remote sensing, aircraft, and balloon and satellite observations show that the new CAMS system is a significant improvement. The results quantify the skill of CAMS to forecast impactful events, such as wildfires, dust storms and air pollution peaks.
Irina Petropavlovskikh, Jeannette D. Wild, Kari Abromitis, Peter Effertz, Koji Miyagawa, Lawrence E. Flynn, Eliane Maillard-Barra, Robert Damadeo, Glen McConville, Bryan Johnson, Patrick Cullis, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Gerald Ancellet, Richard Querel, Roeland Van Malderen, and Daniel Zawada
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1821, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Observational records show that stratospheric ozone is recovering in accordance with the implementation of the Montreal protocol and its amendments. The natural ozone variability complicates detection of small trends. This study optimizes statistical model fit in the observational records by adding parameters that interpret seasonal and long-term changes in atmospheric circulation and airmass mixing which reduces uncertainties in detection of the stratospheric ozone recovery.
Aaron Match, Edwin P. Gerber, and Stephan Fueglistaler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1552, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1552, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Explanations for the tropical ozone maximum at 26 km have fragmented into two paradigms, shown to represent limiting regimes of ozone photochemistry with production by UV and generalized destruction by catalytic cycles and transport. Paradoxically, neither paradigm explains the observed ozone peak, motivating a new theory: peak ozone occurs precisely at the transition between these regimes. An idealized analytical ozone profile is derived, helping to interpret sensitivities to UV perturbations.
Guang Zeng, Richard Querel, Hisako Shiona, Deniz Poyraz, Roeland Van Malderen, Alex Geddes, Penny Smale, Dan Smale, John Robinson, and Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6413–6432, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6413-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a homogenised ozonesonde record (1987–2020) for Lauder, a Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude site; identify factors driving ozone trends; and attribute them to anthropogenic forcings using statistical analysis and model simulations. We find that significant negative lower-stratospheric ozone trends identified at Lauder are associated with an increase in tropopause height and that CO2-driven dynamical changes have played an increasingly important role in driving ozone trends.
Hella Garny, Roland Eichinger, Johannes C. Laube, Eric A. Ray, Gabriele P. Stiller, Harald Bönisch, Laura Saunders, and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4193–4215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4193-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4193-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transport circulation in the stratosphere is important for the distribution of tracers, but its strength is hard to measure. Mean transport times can be inferred from observations of trace gases with certain properties, such as sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). However, this gas has a chemical sink in the high atmosphere, which can lead to substantial biases in inferred transport times. In this paper we present a method to correct mean transport times derived from SF6 for the effects of chemical sinks.
Martyn P. Chipperfield and Slimane Bekki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2783–2802, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2783-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2783-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We give a personal perspective on recent issues related to the depletion of stratospheric ozone and some newly emerging challenges. We first provide a brief review of historic work on understanding the ozone layer and review ozone recovery from the effects of halogenated source gases and the Montreal Protocol. We then discuss the recent observations of ozone depletion from Australian fires in early 2020 and the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022.
Ernst-Peter Röth and Luc Vereecken
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2625–2638, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents the radical and molecular product quantum yields in the photolysis reaction of CHDO at wavelengths above 300 nm. Two different approaches based on literature data are used, with results falling within both approaches' uncertainty ranges. Simple functional forms are presented for use in photochemical models of the atmosphere.
Johannes Pletzer and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1743–1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1743-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1743-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Very fast aircraft can travel at 30–40 km altitude and are designed to use liquid hydrogen as fuel instead of kerosene. Depending on their flight altitude, the impact of these aircraft on the atmosphere and climate can change very much. Our results show that a variation inflight latitude can have a considerably higher change in impact compared to a variation in flight altitude. Atmospheric air transport and polar stratospheric clouds play an important role in hypersonic aircraft emissions.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13701–13711, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13701-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify, for the first time, the time-varying impact of uncontrolled emissions of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLSs) on stratospheric ozone using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model. We demonstrate that Cl-VSLSs already have a non-negligible impact on stratospheric ozone, including a local reduction of up to ~7 DU in Arctic ozone in the cold winter of 2019/20, and any so future growth in emissions will continue to offset some of the benefits of the Montreal Protocol.
Kimberlee Dubé, Susann Tegtmeier, Adam Bourassa, Daniel Zawada, Douglas Degenstein, Patrick E. Sheese, Kaley A. Walker, and William Randel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13283–13300, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a technique for understanding the causes of long-term changes in stratospheric composition. By using N2O as a proxy for stratospheric circulation in the model used to calculated trends, it is possible to separate the effects of dynamics and chemistry on observed trace gas trends. We find that observed HCl increases are due to changes in the stratospheric circulation, as are O3 decreases above 30 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere.
Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Svenja Seeber, Daniela Domeisen, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Franziska Zilker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10451–10472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone protects the biosphere from harmful UV radiation. Anthropogenic activity has led to a reduction in the ozone layer in the recent past, but thanks to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, the ozone layer is projected to recover. In this study, we show that projected future changes in Arctic ozone abundances during springtime will influence stratospheric climate and thereby actively modulate large-scale circulation changes in the Northern Hemisphere.
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, James Keeble, Thomas Peter, Svenja Seeber, Andrea Stenke, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Eugene Rozanov, David Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, and Béatrice Josse
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10235–10254, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Previously, it has been suggested that springtime Arctic ozone depletion might worsen in the coming decades due to climate change, which might counteract the effect of reduced ozone-depleting substances. Here, we show with different chemistry–climate models that springtime Arctic ozone depletion will likely decrease in the future. Further, we explain why models show a large spread in the projected development of Arctic ozone depletion and use the model spread to constrain future projections.
Thomas Reddmann, Miriam Sinnhuber, Jan Maik Wissing, Olesya Yakovchuk, and Ilya Usoskin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6989–7000, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6989-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6989-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Recent analyses of isotopic records of ice cores and sediments have shown that very strong explosions may occur on the Sun, perhaps about one such explosion every 1000 years. Such explosions pose a real threat to humankind. It is therefore of great interest to study the impact of such explosions on Earth. We analyzed how the explosions would affect the chemistry of the middle atmosphere and show that the related ozone loss is not dramatic and that the atmosphere will recover within 1 year.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4801–4817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4801-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4801-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The future ozone evolution in SOCOLv4 simulations under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios has been assessed for the period 2015–2099 and subperiods using the DLM approach. The SOCOLv4 projects a decline in tropospheric ozone in the 2030s in SSP2-4.5 and in the 2060s in SSP5-8.5. The stratospheric ozone increase is ~3 times higher in SSP5-8.5, confirming the important role of GHGs in ozone evolution. We also showed that tropospheric ozone strongly impacts the total column in the tropics.
Antonio G. Bruno, Jeremy J. Harrison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, David P. Moore, Richard J. Pope, Christopher Wilson, Emmanuel Mahieu, and Justus Notholt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4849–4861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4849-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4849-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A 3-D chemical transport model, TOMCAT; satellite data; and ground-based observations have been used to investigate hydrogen cyanide (HCN) variability. We found that the oxidation by O(1D) drives the HCN loss in the middle stratosphere and the currently JPL-recommended OH reaction rate overestimates HCN atmospheric loss. We also evaluated two different ocean uptake schemes. We found them to be unrealistic, and we need to scale these schemes to obtain good agreement with HCN observations.
Janusz Krzyścin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3119–3132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3119-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3119-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose indices to obtain the current stage of total column ozone (TCO3) recovery attributed to ozone-depleting substance (ODS) changes in the stratosphere. The indices are calculated using TCO3 values in key years of the ODS changes. The ozone recovery stage is derived for 16 sites in the NH mid-latitudes using results from ground and satellite measurements and reanalysis data. In Europe, there is a slow TCO3 recovery. A continuous TCO3 decline has been occurring in some sites since 1980.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, William Ball, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15333–15350, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Applying the dynamic linear model, we confirm near-global ozone recovery (55°N–55°S) in the mesosphere, upper and middle stratosphere, and a steady increase in the troposphere. We also show that modern chemistry–climate models (CCMs) like SOCOLv4 may reproduce the observed trend distribution of lower stratospheric ozone, despite exhibiting a lower magnitude and statistical significance. The obtained ozone trend pattern in SOCOLv4 is generally consistent with observations and reanalysis datasets.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, Martyn P. Chipperfield, N. Luke Abraham, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10657–10676, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLS) over the first two decades of the 21st century are assessed using the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model. Stratospheric input of Cl from Cl-VSLS is estimated at ~130 ppt in 2019. The use of model set-up with constrained meteorology significantly increases the abundance of Cl-VSLS in the lower stratosphere relative to the free-running set-up. The growth in Cl-VSLS emissions significantly impacted recent HCl and COCl2 trends.
Yajuan Li, Sandip S. Dhomse, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Andreas Chrysanthou, Yuan Xia, and Dong Guo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10635–10656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10635-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10635-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical transport models forced with (re)analysis meteorological fields are ideally suited for interpreting the influence of important physical processes on the ozone variability. We use TOMCAT forced by ECMWF ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis data sets to investigate the effects of reanalysis forcing fields on ozone changes. Our results show that models forced by ERA5 reanalyses may not yet be capable of reproducing observed changes in stratospheric ozone, particularly in the lower stratosphere.
Ville Maliniemi, Pavle Arsenovic, Annika Seppälä, and Hilde Nesse Tyssøy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8137–8149, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) on Antarctic stratospheric ozone chemistry over the whole 20th century. We find a significant increase of reactive nitrogen due to EP, which can deplete ozone via a catalytic reaction. Furthermore, significant modulation of active chlorine is obtained related to EPP, which impacts ozone depletion by both active chlorine and EPP. Our results show that EPP has been a significant modulator of ozone chemistry during the CFC era.
Daniel J. Ruiz and Michael J. Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2079–2093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The stratosphere is an important source of tropospheric ozone, which affects climate, chemistry, and air quality, but is extremely difficult to quantify given the large production and loss terms in the troposphere. Here, we use other gases that are well observed and quantified as a reference to test our simulations of ozone transport in the atmosphere. This allows us to better constrain the stratospheric source of ozone and also offers guidance to improve future simulations of ozone transport.
Catherine Wilka, Susan Solomon, Doug Kinnison, and David Tarasick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15771–15781, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15771-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15771-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use satellite and balloon measurements to evaluate modeled ozone loss seen in the unusually cold Arctic of 2020 in the real world and compare it to simulations of a world avoided. We show that extensive denitrification in 2020 provides an important test case for stratospheric model process representations. If the Montreal Protocol had not banned ozone-depleting substances, an Arctic ozone hole would have emerged for the first time in spring 2020 that is comparable to those in the Antarctic.
Ville Maliniemi, Hilde Nesse Tyssøy, Christine Smith-Johnsen, Pavle Arsenovic, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11041–11052, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate ozone variability over the 21st century with different greenhouse gas scenarios. Our results highlight a novel mechanism of additional reactive nitrogen species descending to the Antarctic stratosphere from the thermosphere/upper mesosphere due to the accelerated residual circulation under climate change. This excess descending NOx can potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the Antarctic upper stratosphere.
Nuria Pilar Plaza, Aurélien Podglajen, Cristina Peña-Ortiz, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9585–9607, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9585-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9585-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We study the role of different processes in setting the lower stratospheric water vapour. We find that mechanisms involving ice microphysics and small-scale mixing produce the strongest increase in water vapour, in particular over the Asian Monsoon. Small-scale mixing has a special relevance as it improves the agreement with observations at seasonal and intra-seasonal timescales, contrary to the North American Monsoon case, in which large-scale temperatures still dominate its variability.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Laura Stecher, Franziska Winterstein, Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, Michael Ponater, and Markus Kunze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 731–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of strongly increased atmospheric methane mixing ratios on the Earth's climate. An interactive model system including atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and a mixed-layer ocean model is used to analyse the effect of doubled and quintupled methane mixing ratios. We assess feedbacks on atmospheric chemistry and changes in the stratospheric circulation, focusing on the impact of tropospheric warming, and their relevance for the model's climate sensitivity.
Markus Kilian, Sabine Brinkop, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11697–11715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11697-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
After the volcanic eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991, ozone decreased in the tropics and increased in the midlatitudes and polar regions for 1 year. The change in the ozone column is solely a result of the volcanic heating, followed by an ozone decrease in the higher latitudes. This is caused by the volcanic aerosol, which changes the heterogeneous chemistry and thus the catalytic ozone loss cycles. Vertical transport of water vapour is enhanced by volcanic heating and increases methane.
Matt Amos, Paul J. Young, J. Scott Hosking, Jean-François Lamarque, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, David A. Plummer, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9961–9977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models. To do so, we employ a method, more advanced and skilful than the current multi-model mean standard, which is applicable to other ensemble analyses. It calculates the performance and similarity of the models, which we then use to weight the model. Calculating model similarity allows us to account for models which are constructed from similar components.
William T. Ball, Gabriel Chiodo, Marta Abalos, Justin Alsing, and Andrea Stenke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9737–9752, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Recent lower stratospheric ozone decreases remain unexplained. We show that chemistry–climate models are not generally able to reproduce mid-latitude ozone and water vapour changes. Our analysis of observations provides evidence that climate change may be responsible for the ozone trends. While model projections suggest that extratropical ozone should recover by 2100, our study raises questions about their efficacy in simulating lower stratospheric changes in this region.
J. Eric Klobas, Debra K. Weisenstein, Ross J. Salawitch, and David M. Wilmouth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9459–9471, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The rates of important ozone-destroying chemical reactions in the stratosphere are likely to change in the future. We employ a computer model to evaluate how the rates of ozone destruction by chlorine and bromine may evolve in four climate change scenarios with the introduction of the eta factor. We then show how these changing rates will impact the ozone-depleting power of the stratosphere with a new metric known as Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Benchmark-normalized Chlorine (EESBnC).
Yajuan Li, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Sandip S. Dhomse, Richard J. Pope, Faquan Li, and Dong Guo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8627–8639, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8627-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts important thermal and dynamical effects on atmospheric circulation, climate change as well as the ozone distribution. In this study, we use updated observations and model simulations to investigate the ozone trends and variations over the TP. Wintertime TP ozone variations are largely controlled by tropical to high-latitude transport processes, whereas summertime concentrations are a combined effect of photochemical decay and tropical processes.
Javier Alejandro Barrera, Rafael Pedro Fernandez, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, Carlos Alberto Cuevas, Jean-Francois Lamarque, and Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8083–8102, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8083-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The inclusion of biogenic very short-lived bromocarbons (VSLBr) in the CAM-chem model improves the model–satellite agreement of the total ozone columns at mid-latitudes and drives a persistent hemispheric asymmetry in lowermost stratospheric ozone loss. The seasonal VSLBr impact on mid-latitude lowermost stratospheric ozone is influenced by the heterogeneous reactivation processes of inorganic chlorine on ice crystals, with a clear increase in ozone destruction during spring and winter.
James Keeble, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Paul T. Griffiths, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7153–7166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Montreal Protocol was agreed in 1987 to limit and then stop the production of man-made CFCs, which destroy stratospheric ozone. As a result, the atmospheric abundances of CFCs are now declining in the atmosphere. However, the atmospheric abundance of CFC-11 is not declining as expected under complete compliance with the Montreal Protocol. Using the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model, we explore the impact of future unregulated production of CFC-11 on ozone recovery.
Hans Brenna, Steffen Kutterolf, Michael J. Mills, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6521–6539, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6521-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6521-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Los Chocoyos supereruption (84 000 years ago) in Guatemala was one of the largest volcanic events of the last 100 000 years. This eruption released enormous amounts of sulfur, which cooled the climate, as well as chlorine and bromine, which destroyed the ozone in the stratosphere. We have simulated this eruption by using an advanced chemistry–climate model. We found a collapse in the ozone layer lasting more than 10 years, increased surface–UV radiation, and a 30-year climate-cooling period.
Mikhail Sofiev, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Risto Hänninen, and Viktoria F. Sofieva
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1839–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1839-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1839-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
An episode of anomalously low ozone concentrations in the stratosphere over northern Europe occurred on 3–5 November 2018. The 30 % reduction of the ozone layer was predicted by the global chemistry-transport model of the Finnish Meteorological Institute driven by weather forecasts of ECMWF. The reduction was subsequently observed by ozone monitoring satellites. The episode was caused by a storm in the northern Atlantic, which uplifted air from the troposphere to stratosphere.
Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, and Matthias Nützel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13759–13771, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13759-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13759-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A chemistry–climate model (CCM) study is performed, investigating the consequences of a constant CFC-11 surface mixing ratio for stratospheric ozone in the future. The total column ozone is particularly affected in both polar regions in winter and spring. It turns out that the calculated ozone changes, especially in the upper stratosphere, are smaller than expected. In this attitudinal region the additional ozone depletion due to the catalysis by reactive chlorine is partly compensated for.
Quentin Errera, Simon Chabrillat, Yves Christophe, Jonas Debosscher, Daan Hubert, William Lahoz, Michelle L. Santee, Masato Shiotani, Sergey Skachko, Thomas von Clarmann, and Kaley Walker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13647–13679, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13647-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13647-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
BRAM2 is a 13-year reanalysis of the chemical composition from the upper troposphere to the lower mesosphere based on the assimilation of the Microwave Limb Sounder observations where eight species are assimilated: O3, H2O, N2O, HNO3, HCl, ClO, CH3Cl and CO. BRAM2 agrees generally well with independent observations in the middle stratosphere, the polar vortex and the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere but also shows several issues in the model and in the observations.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amanda C. Maycock, Peter Braesicke, Paul J. Telford, N. Luke Abraham, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9833–9846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric response to the amplitude of 11-year solar cycle in UM-UKCA is separated into the contributions from changes in direct radiative heating and photolysis rates, and the results compared with a control case with both effects included. We find that while the tropical responses are largely additive, this is not necessarily the case in the high latitudes. We suggest that solar-induced changes in ozone are important for modulating the SH dynamical response to the 11-year solar cycle.
Pavle Arsenovic, Alessandro Damiani, Eugene Rozanov, Bernd Funke, Andrea Stenke, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9485–9494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9485-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9485-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Low-energy electrons (LEE) are the dominant source of odd nitrogen, which destroys ozone, in the mesosphere and stratosphere in polar winter in the geomagnetically active periods. However, the observed stratospheric ozone anomalies can be reproduced only when accounting for both low- and middle-range energy electrons (MEE) in the chemistry-climate model. Ozone changes may induce further dynamical and thermal changes in the atmosphere. We recommend including both LEE and MEE in climate models.
Franziska Winterstein, Fabian Tanalski, Patrick Jöckel, Martin Dameris, and Michael Ponater
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7151–7163, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7151-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7151-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric concentrations of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas methane are predicted to rise in the future. In this paper we investigate how very strong methane concentrations will impact the atmosphere. We analyse two experiments, one with doubled and one with quintupled methane concentrations and focus on the rapid atmospheric changes before the ocean adjusts to the induced
forcing. In particular these are changes in temperature, ozone, the hydroxyl radical and stratospheric water vapour.
Mengchu Tao, Paul Konopka, Felix Ploeger, Xiaolu Yan, Jonathon S. Wright, Mohamadou Diallo, Stephan Fueglistaler, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6509–6534, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6509-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6509-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper examines the annual and interannual variations as well as long-term trend of modeled stratospheric water vapor with a Lagrangian chemical transport model driven by ERA-I, MERRA-2 and JRA-55. We find reasonable consistency among the annual cycle, QBO and the variabilities induced by ENSO and volcanic aerosols. The main discrepancies are linked to the differences in reanalysis upwelling rates in the lower stratosphere. The trends are sensitive to the reanalyses that drives the model.
Felix Ploeger, Bernard Legras, Edward Charlesworth, Xiaolu Yan, Mohamadou Diallo, Paul Konopka, Thomas Birner, Mengchu Tao, Andreas Engel, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6085–6105, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6085-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6085-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the change in the circulation of the middle atmosphere based on current generation meteorological reanalysis data sets. We find that long-term changes from 1989 to 2015 are similar for the chosen reanalyses, mainly resembling the forced response in climate model simulations to climate change. For shorter periods circulation changes are less robust, and the representation of decadal variability appears to be a major uncertainty for modelling the circulation of the middle atmosphere.
Lucien Froidevaux, Douglas E. Kinnison, Ray Wang, John Anderson, and Ryan A. Fuller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4783–4821, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4783-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates two versions of a 3-D global model of upper-atmospheric composition for recent decades. The two versions differ mainly in their dynamical (wind) constraints. Model–data differences, variability, and trends in five gases (ozone, H2O, HCl, HNO3, and N2O) are compared. While the match between models and observations is impressive, a few areas of discrepancy are noted. This work also updates trends in composition based on recent satellite-based measurements (through 2018).
Thomas von Clarmann and Sören Johansson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15363–15386, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15363-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15363-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This review article compiles the characteristics of the gas chlorine nitrate and discusses its role in atmospheric chemistry. Chlorine nitrate is a reservoir of both stratospheric chlorine and nitrogen. Formation and sink processes are discussed, as well as spectral features and spectroscopic studies. Remote sensing, fluorescence, and mass spectroscopic measurement techniques are introduced, and global distributions and the annual cycle are discussed in the context of chlorine de-/activation.
Laura Thölix, Alexey Karpechko, Leif Backman, and Rigel Kivi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15047–15067, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15047-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the impact of water vapour (WV) on Arctic ozone loss and find the strongest impact during intermediately cold stratospheric winters when chlorine activation increases with increasing PSCs and WV. In colder winters the impact is limited because chlorine activation becomes complete at relatively low WV values, so further addition of WV does not affect ozone loss. Our results imply that improved simulations of WV are needed for more reliable projections of ozone layer recovery.
Cited articles
Arblaster, J. M. and Meehl, G. A.: Contributions of External Forcings to
Southern Annular Mode Trends, J. Climate, 19, 2896–2905, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3774.1,
2006.
Arblaster, J. M., Meehl, G. A., and Karoly, D. J.: Future climate change in
the Southern Hemisphere: Competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L02701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045384, 2011.
Austin, J. and Wilson, R. J.: Ensemble simulations of the decline and
recovery of stratospheric ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D16314,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006907, 2006.
Austin, J., Shindell, D., Beagley, S. R., Brühl, C., Dameris, M., Manzini,
E., Nagashima, T., Newman, P., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Rozanov, E., Schnadt,
C., and Shepherd, T. G.: Uncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate
models of the stratosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 3, 1–27,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-3-1-2003, 2003.
Austin, J., Scinocca, J., Plummer, D., Oman, L., Waugh, D., Akiyoshi, H.,
Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M., Cugnet, D.,
Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Eyring, V., Frith, S., Garcia, R. R., Garny, H.,
Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S. C., Kinnison, D., Lamarque, J. F., Mancini, E.,
Marchand, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., Nakamura, T., Pawson, S., Pitari,
G., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata, K., Teyssèdre, H.,
Wilson, R. J., and Yamashita, Y.: Decline and recovery of total column ozone
using a multimodel time series analysis, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M10,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD013857, 2010.
Barnes, E. A., Barnes, N. W., and Polvani, L. M.: Delayed Southern
Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as
Projected by the CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 27, 852–867,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00246.1, 2013.
Bodeker, G. E., Shiona, H., and Eskes, H.: Indicators of Antarctic ozone
depletion, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-2603-2005,
2005.
Bodeker, G. E., Hassler, B., Young, P. J., and Portmann, R. W.: A vertically
resolved, global, gap-free ozone database for assessing or constraining
global climate model simulations, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 31–43,
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-31-2013, 2013.
Bönisch, H., Engel, A., Birner, Th., Hoor, P., Tarasick, D. W., and Ray, E.
A.: On the structural changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation after 2000,
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 3937–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-3937-2011, 2011.
Bowman, K. W., Shindell, D. T., Worden, H. M., Lamarque, J. F., Young, P. J.,
Stevenson, D. S., Qu, Z., de la Torre, M., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P.
J., Collins, W. J., Doherty, R., Dalsøren, S. B., Faluvegi, G., Folberth,
G., Horowitz, L. W., Josse, B. M., Lee, Y. H., MacKenzie, I. A., Myhre, G.,
Nagashima, T., Naik, V., Plummer, D. A., Rumbold, S. T., Skeie, R. B.,
Strode, S. A., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., Voulgarakis, A., Zeng, G., Kulawik, S.
S., Aghedo, A. M., and Worden, J. R.: Evaluation of ACCMIP outgoing longwave
radiation from tropospheric ozone using TES satellite observations, Atmos.
Chem. Phys., 13, 4057–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, 2013.
Butchart, N.: The Brewer-Dobson circulation, Rev. Geophys., 52, 157–184,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000448, 2014.
Butchart, N., Scaife, A. A., Bourqui, M., de Grandpré, J., Hare, S. H.
E., Kettleborough, J., Langematz, U., Manzini, E., Sassi, F., Shibata, K.,
Shindell, D., and Sigmond, M.: Simulations of anthropogenic change in the
strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, Clim. Dynam., 27, 727–741,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0162-4, 2006.
Butchart, N., Cionni, I., Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G., Waugh, D. W.,
Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Brühl, C., Chipperfield, M. P., Cordero, E.,
Dameris, M., Deckert, R., Dhomse, S., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R. R., Gettelman,
A., Giorgetta, M. A., Kinnison, D. E., Li, F., Mancini, E., McLandress, C.,
Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Sassi, F., Scinocca, J.
F., Shibata, K., Steil, B., and Tian, W.: Chemistry–Climate Model
Simulations of Twenty-First Century Stratospheric Climate and Circulation
Changes, J. Climate, 23, 5349–5374, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3404.1, 2010.
Butchart, N., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Cionni, I., Hardiman, S. C., Haynes, P.
H., Krüger, K., Kushner, P. J., Newman, P. A., Osprey, S. M., Perlwitz,
J., Sigmond, M., Wang, L., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Bekki, S.,
Baumgaertner, A., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Chipperfield, M., Dameris,
M., Dhomse, S., Eyring, V., Garcia, R., Garny, H., Jöckel, P., Lamarque,
J. F., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., Nakamura, T., Pawson, S.,
Plummer, D., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata,
K., Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H., Tian, W., Waugh, D., and Yamashita, Y.:
Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res.,
116, D05102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014995, 2011.
Calvo, N., Garcia, R. R., Marsh, D. R., Mills, M. J., Kinnison, D. E., and
Young, P. J.: Reconciling modeled and observed temperature trends over
Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L16803, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl052526, 2012.
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Hawkins, E., Eyring, V., Cionni, I., Bodeker, G. E.,
Kinnison, D. E., Akiyoshi, H., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A.,
Lamarque, J. F., Nakamura, T., Pawson, S., Yamashita, Y., Bekki, S.,
Braesicke, P., Chipperfield, M. P., Dhomse, S., Marchand, M., Mancini, E.,
Morgenstern, O., Pitari, G., Plummer, D., Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca,
J., Shibata, K., Shepherd, T. G., Tian, W., and Waugh, D. W.: The potential
to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st
century, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9473–9486, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010,
2010.
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Baldwin, M. P., Birner, T., Black, R. X., Butler, A.
H., Calvo, N., Davis, N. A., Gerber, E. P., Gillett, N., Hardiman, S., Kim,
J., Krüger, K., Lee, Y.-Y., Manzini, E., McDaniel, B. A., Polvani, L.,
Reichler, T., Shaw, T. A., Sigmond, M., Son, S.-W., Toohey, M., Wilcox, L.,
Yoden, S., Christiansen, B., Lott, F., Shindell, D., Yukimoto, S., and
Watanabe, S.: On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top
versions of the CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 2494–2505,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50125, 2013.
Christy, J. R., Spencer, R. W., Norris, W. B., Braswell, W. D., and Parker,
D. E.: Error Estimates of Version 5.0 of MSU–AMSU Bulk Atmospheric
Temperatures, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 20, 613–629,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2003)20<613:EEOVOM>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Cionni, I., Eyring, V., Lamarque, J. F., Randel, W. J., Stevenson, D. S., Wu,
F., Bodeker, G. E., Shepherd, T. G., Shindell, D. T., and Waugh, D. W.: Ozone
database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative
forcing, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 11267–11292, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-11267-2011,
2011.
Collins, W. J., Derwent, R. G., Garnier, B., Johnson, C. E., Sanderson, M.
G., and Stevenson, D. S.: Effect of stratosphere-troposphere exchange on the
future tropospheric ozone trend, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8528,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002617, 2003.
Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Halloran,
P., Hinton, T., Hughes, J., Jones, C. D., Joshi, M., Liddicoat, S., Martin,
G., O'Connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Sitch, S., Totterdell, I., Wiltshire,
A., and Woodward, S.: Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model –
HadGEM2, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1051–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011,
2011.
Crook, J. A., Gillett, N. P., and Keeley, S. P. E.: Sensitivity of Southern
Hemisphere climate to zonal asymmetry in ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35,
L07806, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032698, 2008.
Dietmüller, S., Ponater, M., and Sausen, R.: Interactive ozone induces a
negative feedback in CO2-driven climate change simulations, J. Geophys.
Res., 119, 1796-1805, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020575, 2014.
Donner, L. J., Wyman, B. L., Hemler, R. S., Horowitz, L. W., Ming, Y., Zhao,
M., Golaz, J.-C., Ginoux, P., Lin, S. J., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Austin, J.,
Alaka, G., Cooke, W. F., Delworth, T. L., Freidenreich, S. M., Gordon, C. T.,
Griffies, S. M., Held, I. M., Hurlin, W. J., Klein, S. A., Knutson, T. R.,
Langenhorst, A. R., Lee, H.-C., Lin, Y., Magi, B. I., Malyshev, S. L., Milly,
P. C. D., Naik, V., Nath, M. J., Pincus, R., Ploshay, J. J., Ramaswamy, V.,
Seman, C. J., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J. J., Stern, W. F., Stouffer, R. J.,
Wilson, R. J., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., and Zeng, F.: The Dynamical
Core, Physical Parameterizations, and Basic Simulation Characteristics of the
Atmospheric Component AM3 of the GFDL Global Coupled Model CM3, J. Climate,
24, 3484–3519, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3955.1, 2011.
Dvortsov, V. L. and Solomon, S.: Response of the stratospheric temperatures
and ozone to past and future increases in stratospheric humidity, J. Geophys.
Res., 106, 7505–7514, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900637, 2001.
Engel, A., Mobius, T., Bonisch, H., Schmidt, U., Heinz, R., Levin, I.,
Atlas, E., Aoki, S., Nakazawa, T., Sugawara, S., Moore, F., Hurst, D.,
Elkins, J., Schauffler, S., Andrews, A., and Boering, K.: Age of
stratospheric air unchanged within uncertainties over the past 30 years,
Nature Geosci., 2, 28–31, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo388, 2009.
Eyring, V., Butchart, N., Waugh, D. W., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Bekki, S.,
Bodeker, G. E., Boville, B. A., Brühl, C., Chipperfield, M. P., Cordero,
E., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Fioletov, V. E., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R. R.,
Gettelman, A., Giorgetta, M. A., Grewe, V., Jourdain, L., Kinnison, D. E.,
Mancini, E., Manzini, E., Marchand, M., Marsh, D. R., Nagashima, T., Newman,
P. A., Nielsen, J. E., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E.,
Schraner, M., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata, K., Stolarski, R. S., Struthers, H.,
Tian, W., and Yoshiki, M.: Assessment of temperature, trace species, and
ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past, J. Geophys.
Res., 111, D22308, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007327, 2006.
Eyring, V., Waugh, D. W., Bodeker, G. E., Cordero, E., Akiyoshi, H., Austin,
J., Beagley, S. R., Boville, B. A., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Butchart,
N., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., Deckert, R., Deushi, M., Frith, S. M.,
Garcia, R. R., Gettelman, A., Giorgetta, M. A., Kinnison, D. E., Mancini,
E., Manzini, E., Marsh, D. R., Matthes, S., Nagashima, T., Newman, P. A.,
Nielsen, J. E., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E.,
Schraner, M., Scinocca, J. F., Semeniuk, K., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata, K.,
Steil, B., Stolarski, R. S., Tian, W., and Yoshiki, M.: Multimodel
projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century, J. Geophys. Res.,
112, D16303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008332, 2007.
Eyring, V., Cionni, I., Bodeker, G. E., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Kinnison, D.
E., Scinocca, J. F., Waugh, D. W., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Chipperfield, M.
P., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S. M., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Kubin,
A., Langematz, U., Mancini, E., Marchand, M., Nakamura, T., Oman, L. D.,
Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G.,
Shibata, K., Tian, W., Braesicke, P., Hardiman, S. C., Lamarque, J. F.,
Morgenstern, O., Pyle, J. A., Smale, D., and Yamashita, Y.: Multi-model
assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2
models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9451–9472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9451-2010,
2010a.
Eyring, V., Cionni, I., Lamarque, J. F., Akiyoshi, H., Bodeker, G. E.,
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Frith, S. M., Gettelman, A., Kinnison, D. E.,
Nakamura, T., Oman, L. D., Pawson, S., and Yamashita, Y.: Sensitivity of
21st century stratospheric ozone to greenhouse gas scenarios, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 37, L16807, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044443, 2010b.
Eyring, V., Arblaster, J. M., Cionni, I., Sedláček, J., Perlwitz,
J., Young, P. J., Bekki, S., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Collins, W. J.,
Faluvegi, G., Gottschaldt, K. D., Horowitz, L. W., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque,
J. F., Marsh, D. R., Saint-Martin, D., Shindell, D. T., Sudo, K., Szopa, S.,
and Watanabe, S.: Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in
CMIP5 simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 5029–5060, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50316,
2013.
Forster, P. M., Thompson, D. W. J. (Coordinating Lead Authors),
Baldwin, M. P., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., Haigh, J. D., Karoly, D.
J., Kushner, P. J., Randel, W. J., Rosenlof, K. H., Seidel, D. J., Solomon,
S., Beig, G., Braesicke, P., Butchart, N., Gillett, N. P., Grise, K. M.,
Marsh, D. R., McLandress, C., Rao, T. N., Son, S.-W., Stenchikov, G. L., and
Yoden, S.: Stratospheric changes and climate, Chapter 4 in Scientific
Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring
Project–Report No. 52, 516 pp., Geneva, Switzerland, World Meteorological
Organization, 2011.
Fu, Q., Solomon, S., and Lin, P.: On the seasonal dependence of tropical
lower-stratospheric temperature trends, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 2643–2653,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-2643-2010, 2010.
Fyfe, J. C., Boer, G. J., and Flato, G. M.: The Arctic and Antarctic
oscillations and their projected changes under global warming, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 26, 1601–1604, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900317, 1999.
Garcia, R. R. and Randel, W. J.: Acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson
Circulation due to Increases in Greenhouse Gases, J. Atmos. Sci., 65,
2731–2739, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2712.1, 2008.
Gent, P., Yeager, S., Neale, R., Levis, S., and Bailey, D.: Improvements in
a half degree atmosphere/land version of the CCSM, Clim. Dynam., 34,
819–833, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0614-8, 2010.
Gillett, N. P. and Fyfe, J. C.: Annular mode changes in the CMIP5
simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1189–1193, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50249,
2013.
Gillett, N. P. and Thompson, D. W. J.: Simulation of Recent Southern
Hemisphere Climate Change, Science, 302, 273–275,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1087440, 2003.
Gillett, N. P., Scinocca, J. F., Plummer, D. A., and Reader, M. C.:
Sensitivity of climate to dynamically-consistent zonal asymmetries in ozone,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L10809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037246, 2009.
Gillett, N. P., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Eyring, V., Garcia,
R., Karpechko, A. Yu., McLinden, C. A., Morgenstern, O., Plummer, D. A.,
Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J., and Shibata, K.: Attribution of
observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature, Atmos. Chem. Phys.,
11, 599–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-599-2011, 2011.
Gong, D. and Wang, S.: Definition of Antarctic Oscillation index, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 26, 459–462, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900003, 1999.
Gregg, J. W., Jones, C. G., and Dawson, T. E.: Urbanization effects on tree
growth in the vicinity of New York City, Nature, 424, 183–187,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01728, 2003.
Griffies, S. M., Winton, M., Donner, L. J., Horowitz, L. W., Downes, S. M.,
Farneti, R., Gnanadesikan, A., Hurlin, W. J., Lee, H.-C., Liang, Z., Palter,
J. B., Samuels, B. L., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B. L., Yin, J., and Zadeh,
N.: The GFDL CM3 Coupled Climate Model: Characteristics of the Ocean and Sea
Ice Simulations, J. Climate, 24, 3520–3544, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3964.1,
2011.
Grise, K. M., Thompson, D. W. J., and Forster, P. M.: On the Role of
Radiative Processes in Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling, J. Climate, 22,
4154–4161, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2756.1, 2009.
Grytsai, A. V., Evtushevsky, O. M., Agapitov, O. V., Klekociuk, A. R., and
Milinevsky, G. P.: Structure and long-term change in the zonal asymmetry in
Antarctic total ozone during spring, Ann. Geophys., 25, 361–374,
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-25-361-2007, 2007.
The HadGEM2 Development Team: G. M. Martin, Bellouin, N., Collins, W. J.,
Culverwell, I. D., Halloran, P. R., Hardiman, S. C., Hinton, T. J., Jones, C.
D., McDonald, R. E., McLaren, A. J., O'Connor, F. M., Roberts, M. J.,
Rodriguez, J. M., Woodward, S., Best, M. J., Brooks, M. E., Brown, A. R.,
Butchart, N., Dearden, C., Derbyshire, S. H., Dharssi, I., Doutriaux-Boucher,
M., Edwards, J. M., Falloon, P. D., Gedney, N., Gray, L. J., Hewitt, H. T.,
Hobson, M., Huddleston, M. R., Hughes, J., Ineson, S., Ingram, W. J., James,
P. M., Johns, T. C., Johnson, C. E., Jones, A., Jones, C. P., Joshi, M. M.,
Keen, A. B., Liddicoat, S., Lock, A. P., Maidens, A. V., Manners, J. C.,
Milton, S. F., Rae, J. G. L., Ridley, J. K., Sellar, A., Senior, C. A.,
Totterdell, I. J., Verhoef, A., Vidale, P. L., and Wiltshire, A.: The HadGEM2
family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations, Geosci. Model
Dev., 4, 723–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011, 2011.
Haigh, J. D. and Pyle, J. A.: Ozone perturbation experiments in a
two-dimensional circulation model, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 108, 551–574,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710845705, 1982.
Haimberger, L., Tavolato, C., and Sperka, S.: Toward Elimination of the Warm
Bias in Historic Radiosonde Temperature Records – Some New Results from a
Comprehensive Intercomparison of Upper-Air Data, J. Climate, 21, 4587–4606,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI1929.1, 2008.
Haimberger, L., Tavolato, C., and Sperka, S.: Homogenization of the Global
Radiosonde Temperature Dataset through Combined Comparison with Reanalysis
Background Series and Neighboring Stations, J. Climate, 25, 8108–8131,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00668.1, 2012.
Hassler, B., Young, P. J., Portmann, R. W., Bodeker, G. E., Daniel, J. S.,
Rosenlof, K. H., and Solomon, S.: Comparison of three vertically resolved
ozone data sets: climatology, trends and radiative forcings, Atmos. Chem.
Phys., 13, 5533–5550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5533-2013, 2013.
Holton, J. R., Haynes, P. H., McIntyre, M. E., Douglass, A. R., Rood, R. B.,
and Pfister, L.: Stratosphere-troposphere exchange, Rev. Geophys., 33,
403–439, https://doi.org/10.1029/95RG02097, 1995.
Hsu, J. and Prather, M. J.: Stratospheric variability and tropospheric
ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D06102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010942, 2009.
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp., 2013.
Isaksen, I. S. A., Granier, C., Myhre, G., Berntsen, T. K., Dalsøren, S.
B., Gauss, M., Klimont, Z., Benestad, R., Bousquet, P., Collins, W., Cox, T.,
Eyring, V., Fowler, D., Fuzzi, S., Jöckel, P., Laj, P., Lohmann, U.,
Maione, M., Monks, P., Prevot, A. S. H., Raes, F., Richter, A., Rognerud, B.,
Schulz, M., Shindell, D., Stevenson, D. S., Storelvmo, T., Wang, W. C., van
Weele, M., Wild, M., and Wuebbles, D.: Atmospheric composition change:
Climate–Chemistry interactions, Atmos. Environ., 43, 5138–5192,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.08.003, 2009.
Jacob, D. J. and Winner, D. A.: Effect of climate change on air quality,
Atmos. Environ., 43, 51–63, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.051, 2009.
Jerrett, M., Burnett, R. T., Pope, C. A., Ito, K., Thurston, G., Krewski,
D., Shi, Y., Calle, E., and Thun, M.: Long-Term Ozone Exposure and Mortality,
New Engl. J. Med., 360, 1085–1095, https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa0803894, 2009.
Keeble, J., Braesicke, P., Abraham, N. L., Roscoe, H. K., and Pyle, J. A.:
The impact of polar stratospheric ozone loss on Southern Hemisphere
stratospheric circulation and climate, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13705–13717,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13705-2014, 2014.
Koch, D., Schmidt, G. A., and Field, C. V.: Sulfur, sea salt, and
radionuclide aerosols in GISS ModelE, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D06206,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005550, 2006.
Lamarque, J.-F. and Solomon, S.: Impact of Changes in Climate and
Halocarbons on Recent Lower Stratosphere Ozone and Temperature Trends, J.
Climate, 23, 2599–2611, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3179.1, 2010.
Lamarque, J.-F., Kyle, G. P., Meinshausen, M., Riahi, K., Smith, S., van
Vuuren, D., Conley, A., and Vitt, F.: Global and regional evolution of
short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative
Concentration Pathways, Clim. Change, 109, 191–212,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0155-0, 2011.
Lamarque, J.-F., Emmons, L. K., Hess, P. G., Kinnison, D. E., Tilmes, S.,
Vitt, F., Heald, C. L., Holland, E. A., Lauritzen, P. H., Neu, J., Orlando,
J. J., Rasch, P. J., and Tyndall, G. K.: CAM-chem: description and evaluation
of interactive atmospheric chemistry in the Community Earth System Model,
Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 369–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-369-2012, 2012.
Lamarque, J.-F., Dentener, F., McConnell, J., Ro, C.-U., Shaw, M., Vet, R.,
Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Dalsoren, S., Doherty, R., Faluvegi, G.,
Ghan, S. J., Josse, B., Lee, Y. H., MacKenzie, I. A., Plummer, D., Shindell,
D. T., Skeie, R. B., Stevenson, D. S., Strode, S., Zeng, G., Curran, M.,
Dahl-Jensen, D., Das, S., Fritzsche, D., and Nolan, M.: Multi-model mean
nitrogen and sulfur deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate
Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): evaluation of historical and
projected future changes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7997–8018,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7997-2013, 2013a.
Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D. T., Josse, B., Young, P. J., Cionni, I.,
Eyring, V., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Collins, W. J., Doherty, R.,
Dalsoren, S., Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G., Ghan, S. J., Horowitz, L. W., Lee,
Y. H., MacKenzie, I. A., Nagashima, T., Naik, V., Plummer, D., Righi, M.,
Rumbold, S. T., Schulz, M., Skeie, R. B., Stevenson, D. S., Strode, S., Sudo,
K., Szopa, S., Voulgarakis, A., and Zeng, G.: The Atmospheric Chemistry and
Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): overview and description of
models, simulations and climate diagnostics, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179–206,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, 2013b.
Lary, D. J.: Catalytic destruction of stratospheric ozone, J. Geophys. Res.,
102, 21515–21526, 1997.
Lee, Y. H., Lamarque, J.-F., Flanner, M. G., Jiao, C., Shindell, D. T.,
Berntsen, T., Bisiaux, M. M., Cao, J., Collins, W. J., Curran, M., Edwards,
R., Faluvegi, G., Ghan, S., Horowitz, L. W., McConnell, J. R., Ming, J.,
Myhre, G., Nagashima, T., Naik, V., Rumbold, S. T., Skeie, R. B., Sudo, K.,
Takemura, T., Thevenon, F., Xu, B., and Yoon, J.-H.: Evaluation of
preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from
Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP),
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2607–2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, 2013.
Lelieveld, J. and Dentener, F. J.: What controls tropospheric ozone?, J.
Geophys. Res., 105, 3531–3551, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD901011, 2000.
Marshall, G. J.: Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from Observations and
Reanalyses, J. Climate, 16, 4134–4143,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<4134:TITSAM>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Marshall, G. J.: Half-century seasonal relationships between the Southern
Annular mode and Antarctic temperatures, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 373–383,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1407, 2007.
Marshall, G. J., Stott, P. A., Turner, J., Connolley, W. M., King, J. C.,
and Lachlan-Cope, T. A.: Causes of exceptional atmospheric circulation
changes in the Southern Hemisphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L14205,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019952, 2004.
McLandress, C., Shepherd, T. G., Scinocca, J. F., Plummer, D. A., Sigmond,
M., Jonsson, A. I., and Reader, M. C.: Separating the Dynamical Effects of
Climate Change and Ozone Depletion. Part II: Southern Hemisphere Troposphere,
J. Climate, 24, 1850–1868, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3958.1, 2011.
McLinden, C. A., Olsen, S. C., Hannegan, B., Wild, O., Prather, M. J., and
Sundet, J.: Stratospheric ozone in 3-D models: A simple chemistry and the
cross-tropopause flux, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 14653–14665,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900124, 2000.
McPeters, R. D., Bhartia, P. K., Haffner, D., Labow, G. J., and Flynn, L.:
The version 8.6 SBUV ozone data record: An overview, J. Geophys. Res., 118,
8032–8039, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50597, 2013.
Mears, C. A., Wentz, F. J., Thorne, P., and Bernie, D.: Assessing
uncertainty in estimates of atmospheric temperature changes from MSU and AMSU
using a Monte-Carlo estimation technique, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D08112,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014954, 2011.
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M. L. T.,
Lamarque, J. F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K.,
Thomson, A., Velders, G. J. M., and Vuuren, D. P. P.: The RCP greenhouse gas
concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Clim. Change, 109,
213–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011.
Meul, S., Langematz, U., Oberländer, S., Garny, H., and Jöckel, P.:
Chemical contribution to future tropical ozone change in the lower
stratosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2959–2971,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2959-2014, 2014.
Morgenstern, O., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Butchart, N.,
Chipperfield, M. P., Cugnet, D., Deushi, M., Dhomse, S. S., Garcia, R. R.,
Gettelman, A., Gillett, N. P., Hardiman, S. C., Jumelet, J., Kinnison, D.
E., Lamarque, J. F., Lott, F., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Nakamura, T.,
Olivié, D., Peter, T., Plummer, D., Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E.,
Saint-Martin, D., Scinocca, J. F., Shibata, K., Sigmond, M., Smale, D.,
Teyssèdre, H., Tian, W., Voldoire, A., and Yamashita, Y.: Anthropogenic
forcing of the Northern Annular Mode in CCMVal-2 models, J. Geophys. Res.,
115, D00M03, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013347, 2010a.
Morgenstern, O., Giorgetta, M. A., Shibata, K., Eyring, V., Waugh, D. W.,
Shepherd, T. G., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Baumgaertner, A. J. G., Bekki,
S., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Chipperfield, M. P., Cugnet, D., Dameris,
M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S. M., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S. C.,
Hegglin, M. I., Jöckel, P., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J. F., Mancini,
E., Manzini, E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Nakamura, T., Nielsen, J. E.,
Olivié, D., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J. F.,
Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H., Toohey, M., Tian, W., and Yamashita, Y.:
Review of the formulation of present-generation stratospheric
chemistry-climate models and associated external forcings, J. Geophys. Res.,
115, D00M02, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013728, 2010b.
Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Breìon, F.-M., Collins, W., Fuglestvedt, J., Huang,
J., Koch, D., Lamarque, J.-F., Lee, D., Mendoza, B., Nakajima, T., Robock,
A., Stephens, G., Takemura, T., and Zhang, H.: Anthropogenic and Natural
Radiative Forcing, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin,
D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia,
Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 659–740, 2013.
Naik, V., Horowitz, L. W., Fiore, A. M., Ginoux, P., Mao, J., Aghedo, A. M.,
and Levy, H.: Impact of preindustrial to present-day changes in short-lived
pollutant emissions on atmospheric composition and climate forcing, J.
Geophys. Res., 118, 8086–8110, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50608, 2013a.
Naik, V., Voulgarakis, A., Fiore, A. M., Horowitz, L. W., Lamarque, J.-F.,
Lin, M., Prather, M. J., Young, P. J., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P. J.,
Cionni, I., Collins, W. J., Dalsøren, S. B., Doherty, R., Eyring, V.,
Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G. A., Josse, B., Lee, Y. H., MacKenzie, I. A.,
Nagashima, T., van Noije, T. P. C., Plummer, D. A., Righi, M., Rumbold, S.
T., Skeie, R., Shindell, D. T., Stevenson, D. S., Strode, S., Sudo, K.,
Szopa, S., and Zeng, G.: Preindustrial to present-day changes in tropospheric
hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and
Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13,
5277–5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, 2013b.
Newman, P. A., Nash, E. R., and Rosenfield, J. E.: What controls the
temperature of the Arctic stratosphere during the spring?, J. Geophys. Res.,
106, 19999–20010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD000061, 2001.
Nowack, P. J., Luke Abraham, N., Maycock, A. C., Braesicke, P., Gregory, J.
M., Joshi, M. M., Osprey, A., and Pyle, J. A.: A large ozone-circulation
feedback and its implications for global warming assessments, Nature Clim.
Change, 5, 41–45, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2451, 2015.
Parrish, D. D., Lamarque, J. F., Naik, V., Horowitz, L., Shindell, D. T.,
Staehelin, J., Derwent, R., Cooper, O. R., Tanimoto, H., Volz-Thomas, A.,
Gilge, S., Scheel, H. E., Steinbacher, M., and Fröhlich, M.: Long-term
changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations: Comparing
chemistry-climate models and observations at northern midlatitudes, J.
Geophys. Res., 119, 5719–5736, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021435, 2014.
Perlwitz, J.: Atmospheric science: Tug of war on the jet stream, Nature
Clim. Change, 1, 29–31, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1065, 2011.
Perlwitz, J., Pawson, S., Fogt, R. L., Nielsen, J. E., and Neff, W. D.:
Impact of stratospheric ozone hole recovery on Antarctic climate, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 35, L08714, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033317, 2008.
Polvani, L. M. and Solomon, S.: The signature of ozone depletion on
tropical temperature trends, as revealed by their seasonal cycle in model
integrations with single forcings, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D17102,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017719, 2012.
Polvani, L. M., Waugh, D. W., Correa, G. J. P., and Son, S.-W.:
Stratospheric Ozone Depletion: The Main Driver of Twentieth-Century
Atmospheric Circulation Changes in the Southern Hemisphere, J. Climate, 24,
795–812, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3772.1, 2010.
Polvani, L. M., Previdi, M., and Deser, C.: Large cancellation, due to ozone
recovery, of future Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation trends,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046712, 2011.
Portmann, R. W. and Solomon, S.: Indirect radiative forcing of the ozone
layer during the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02813,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028252, 2007.
Portmann, R. W., Daniel, J. S., and Ravishankara, A. R.: Stratospheric ozone
depletion due to nitrous oxide: influences of other gases, Philos. T. Roy.
Soc. B, 367, 1256–1264, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0377, 2012.
Prather, M. J., Ehhalt, D., Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., and Griggs,
D. J. (Eds.): Atmospheric Chemistry and Greenhouse Gases, in: Climate Change
2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,
239–287, 2001.
Previdi, M. and Polvani, L. M.: Climate system response to stratospheric
ozone depletion and recovery, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 2401–2419,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2330, 2014.
Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Randel, W. J., Santer, B. D., Soden, B.
J., and Stenchikov, G. L.: Anthropogenic and Natural Influences in the
Evolution of Lower Stratospheric Cooling, Science, 311, 1138–1141,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1122587, 2006.
Randel, W. J. and Wu, F.: Cooling of the Arctic and Antarctic Polar
Stratospheres due to Ozone Depletion, J. Climate, 12, 1467–1479,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1467:COTAAA>2.0.CO;2, 1999.
Randel, W. J., Park, M., Wu, F., and Livesey, N.: A Large Annual Cycle in
Ozone above the Tropical Tropopause Linked to the Brewer–Dobson Circulation,
J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 4479–4488, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2409.1, 2007.
Randel, W. J., Shine, K. P., Austin, J., Barnett, J., Claud, C., Gillett, N.
P., Keckhut, P., Langematz, U., Lin, R., Long, C., Mears, C., Miller, A.,
Nash, J., Seidel, D. J., Thompson, D. W. J., Wu, F., and Yoden, S.: An
update of observed stratospheric temperature trends, J. Geophys. Res., 114,
D02107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010421, 2009.
Randeniya, L. K., Vohralik, P. F., and Plumb, I. C.: Stratospheric ozone
depletion at northern mid latitudes in the 21st century: The importance of
future concentrations of greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 29, 10-11–10-14, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014295, 2002.
Ravishankara, A. R., Daniel, J. S., and Portmann, R. W.: Nitrous Oxide
(N2O): The Dominant Ozone-Depleting Substance Emitted in the 21st Century,
Science, 326, 123–125, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1176985, 2009.
Reader, M. C., Plummer, D. A., Scinocca, J. F., and Shepherd, T. G.:
Contributions to twentieth century total column ozone change from
halocarbons, tropospheric ozone precursors, and climate change, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 40, 6276–6281, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057776, 2013.
Revell, L. E., Bodeker, G. E., Smale, D., Lehmann, R., Huck, P. E.,
Williamson, B. E., Rozanov, E., and Struthers, H.: The effectiveness of N2O
in depleting stratospheric ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L15806,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052143, 2012.
Rosenfield, J. E., Douglass, A. R., and Considine, D. B.: The impact of
increasing carbon dioxide on ozone recovery, J. Geophys. Res., 107, ACH
7-1–ACH 7-9, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000824, 2002.
Santer, B. D., Wigley, T. M. L., Boyle, J. S., Gaffen, D. J., Hnilo, J. J.,
Nychka, D., Parker, D. E., and Taylor, K. E.: Statistical significance of
trends and trend differences in layer-average atmospheric temperature time
series, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 7337-7356, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD901105, 2000.
Santer, B. D., Sausen, R., Wigley, T. M. L., Boyle, J. S., AchutaRao, K.,
Doutriaux, C., Hansen, J. E., Meehl, G. A., Roeckner, E., Ruedy, R.,
Schmidt, G., and Taylor, K. E.: Behavior of tropopause height and
atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses, and observations: Decadal
changes, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002258, 2003a.
Santer, B. D., Wehner, M. F., Wigley, T. M. L., Sausen, R., Meehl, G. A.,
Taylor, K. E., Ammann, C., Arblaster, J., Washington, W. M., Boyle, J. S.,
and Brüggemann, W.: Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to
Recent Tropopause Height Changes, Science, 301, 479–483,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1084123, 2003b.
Schmidt, G. A., Ruedy, R., Hansen, J. E., Aleinov, I., Bell, N., Bauer, M.,
Bauer, S., Cairns, B., Canuto, V., Cheng, Y., Del Genio, A., Faluvegi, G.,
Friend, A. D., Hall, T. M., Hu, Y., Kelley, M., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D.,
Lacis, A. A., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Miller, R. L., Nazarenko, L., Oinas, V.,
Perlwitz, J., Perlwitz, J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Russell, G. L., Sato, M.,
Shindell, D. T., Stone, P. H., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Thresher, D., and Yao,
M.-S.: Present-Day Atmospheric Simulations Using GISS ModelE: Comparison to
In Situ, Satellite, and Reanalysis Data, J. Climate, 19, 153–192,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3612.1, 2006.
Scinocca, J. F., McFarlane, N. A., Lazare, M., Li, J., and Plummer, D.:
Technical Note: The CCCma third generation AGCM and its extension into the
middle atmosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 7055–7074,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-7055-2008, 2008.
Sexton, D. M. H.: The effect of stratospheric ozone depletion on the phase
of the Antarctic Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3697–3700,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013376, 2001.
Shepherd, T. G.: Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change,
Atmos.-Ocean, 46, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.3137/ao.460106, 2008.
Shepherd, T. G., Plummer, D. A., Scinocca, J. F., Hegglin, M. I., Fioletov,
V. E., Reader, M. C., Remsberg, E., von Clarmann, T., and Wang, H. J.:
Reconciliation of halogen-induced ozone loss with the total-column ozone
record, Nature Geosci., 7, 443–449, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2155, 2014.
Sherwood, S. C., Meyer, C. L., Allen, R. J., and Titchner, H. A.: Robust
Tropospheric Warming Revealed by Iteratively Homogenized Radiosonde Data, J.
Climate, 21, 5336–5352, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2320.1, 2008.
Shindell, D. T. and Schmidt, G. A.: Southern Hemisphere climate response to
ozone changes and greenhouse gas increases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18209,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020724, 2004.
Shindell, D. T., Faluvegi, G., Stevenson, D. S., Krol, M. C., Emmons, L. K.,
Lamarque, J. F., Pétron, G., Dentener, F. J., Ellingsen, K., Schultz, M.
G., Wild, O., Amann, M., Atherton, C. S., Bergmann, D. J., Bey, I., Butler,
T., Cofala, J., Collins, W. J., Derwent, R. G., Doherty, R. M., Drevet, J.,
Eskes, H. J., Fiore, A. M., Gauss, M., Hauglustaine, D. A., Horowitz, L. W.,
Isaksen, I. S. A., Lawrence, M. G., Montanaro, V., Müller, J. F.,
Pitari, G., Prather, M. J., Pyle, J. A., Rast, S., Rodriguez, J. M.,
Sanderson, M. G., Savage, N. H., Strahan, S. E., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., Unger,
N., van Noije, T. P. C., and Zeng, G.: Multimodel simulations of carbon
monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes, J.
Geophys. Res., 111, D19306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007100, 2006.
Shindell, D. T., Lamarque, J.-F., Schulz, M., Flanner, M., Jiao, C., Chin,
M., Young, P. J., Lee, Y. H., Rotstayn, L., Mahowald, N., Milly, G.,
Faluvegi, G., Balkanski, Y., Collins, W. J., Conley, A. J., Dalsoren, S.,
Easter, R., Ghan, S., Horowitz, L., Liu, X., Myhre, G., Nagashima, T., Naik,
V., Rumbold, S. T., Skeie, R., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., Takemura, T.,
Voulgarakis, A., Yoon, J.-H., and Lo, F.: Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP
historical and future climate simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13,
2939–2974, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, 2013a.
Shindell, D. T., Pechony, O., Voulgarakis, A., Faluvegi, G., Nazarenko, L.,
Lamarque, J.-F., Bowman, K., Milly, G., Kovari, B., Ruedy, R., and Schmidt,
G. A.: Interactive ozone and methane chemistry in GISS-E2 historical and
future climate simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2653–2689,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2653-2013, 2013b.
Solomon, S., Young, P. J., and Hassler, B.: Uncertainties in the evolution
of stratospheric ozone and implications for recent temperature changes in
the tropical lower stratosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L17706,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl052723, 2012.
Son, S.-W., Tandon, N. F., Polvani, L. M., and Waugh, D. W.: Ozone hole and
Southern Hemisphere climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15705,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038671, 2009.
Son, S. W., Polvani, L. M., Waugh, D. W., Akiyoshi, H., Garcia, R.,
Kinnison, D., Pawson, S., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G., and Shibata, K.: The
Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on the Southern Hemisphere Westerly
Jet, Science, 320, 1486–1489, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155939, 2008.
Son, S. W., Gerber, E. P., Perlwitz, J., Polvani, L. M., Gillett, N. P.,
Seo, K. H., Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G., Waugh, D., Akiyoshi, H., Austin,
J., Baumgaertner, A., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Butchart, N.,
Chipperfield, M. P., Cugnet, D., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S., Garny,
H., Garcia, R., Hardiman, S. C., Jöckel, P., Lamarque, J. F., Mancini,
E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Nakamura, T., Morgenstern, O., Pitari, G.,
Plummer, D. A., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J. F., Shibata, K., Smale,
D., Teyssèdre, H., Tian, W., and Yamashita, Y.: Impact of stratospheric
ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment, J.
Geophys. Res., 115, D00M07, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014271, 2010.
SPARC CCMVal: SPARC CCMVal Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate
Models, edited by: Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G., and Waugh, D. W., SPARC
Report No. 5, WCRP-132, WMO/TD-No. 1526, 2010.
Stevenson, D. S.: Atmospheric chemistry: Climate's chemical sensitivity,
Nature Clim. Change, 5, 21–22, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2477, 2015.
Stevenson, D. S., Dentener, F. J., Schultz, M. G., Ellingsen, K., van Noije,
T. P. C., Wild, O., Zeng, G., Amann, M., Atherton, C. S., Bell, N.,
Bergmann, D. J., Bey, I., Butler, T., Cofala, J., Collins, W. J., Derwent,
R. G., Doherty, R. M., Drevet, J., Eskes, H. J., Fiore, A. M., Gauss, M.,
Hauglustaine, D. A., Horowitz, L. W., Isaksen, I. S. A., Krol, M. C.,
Lamarque, J. F., Lawrence, M. G., Montanaro, V., Müller, J. F., Pitari,
G., Prather, M. J., Pyle, J. A., Rast, S., Rodriguez, J. M., Sanderson, M.
G., Savage, N. H., Shindell, D. T., Strahan, S. E., Sudo, K., and Szopa, S.:
Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric
ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D08301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006338, 2006.
Stevenson, D. S., Young, P. J., Naik, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D. T.,
Voulgarakis, A., Skeie, R. B., Dalsoren, S. B., Myhre, G., Berntsen, T. K.,
Folberth, G. A., Rumbold, S. T., Collins, W. J., MacKenzie, I. A., Doherty,
R. M., Zeng, G., van Noije, T. P. C., Strunk, A., Bergmann, D.,
Cameron-Smith, P., Plummer, D. A., Strode, S. A., Horowitz, L., Lee, Y. H.,
Szopa, S., Sudo, K., Nagashima, T., Josse, B., Cionni, I., Righi, M., Eyring,
V., Conley, A., Bowman, K. W., Wild, O., and Archibald, A.: Tropospheric
ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the
Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP),
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013.
Stiller, G. P., von Clarmann, T., Haenel, F., Funke, B., Glatthor, N.,
Grabowski, U., Kellmann, S., Kiefer, M., Linden, A., Lossow, S., and
López-Puertas, M.: Observed temporal evolution of global mean age of
stratospheric air for the 2002 to 2010 period, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12,
3311–3331, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3311-2012, 2012.
Struthers, H., Bodeker, G. E., Austin, J., Bekki, S., Cionni, I., Dameris,
M., Giorgetta, M. A., Grewe, V., Lefèvre, F., Lott, F., Manzini, E., Peter,
T., Rozanov, E., and Schraner, M.: The simulation of the Antarctic ozone hole
by chemistry-climate models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 6363–6376,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-6363-2009, 2009.
Sudo, K., Takahashi, M., and Akimoto, H.: Future changes in
stratosphere-troposphere exchange and their impacts on future tropospheric
ozone simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2256, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018526,
2003.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and
the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Thompson, D. W. J. and Solomon, S.: Interpretation of Recent Southern
Hemisphere Climate Change, Science, 296, 895–899,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1069270, 2002.
Thompson, D. W. J. and Wallace, J. M.: Annular Modes in the Extratropical
Circulation. Part I: Month-to-Month Variability, J. Climate, 13, 1000–1016,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1000:AMITEC>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Thompson, D. W. J., Solomon, S., Kushner, P. J., England, M. H., Grise, K.
M., and Karoly, D. J.: Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern
Hemisphere surface climate change, Nature Geosci., 4, 741–749,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1296, 2011.
Thorne, P. W., Parker, D. E., Tett, S. F. B., Jones, P. D., McCarthy, M.,
Coleman, H., and Brohan, P.: Revisiting radiosonde upper air temperatures
from 1958 to 2002, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D18105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005753,
2005.
UNEP: Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interaction with
climate change: 2015 assessment, United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP), Nairobi, 2015.
van Vuuren, Detlef, P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A.,
Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T.,
Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S., and Rose, S.: The representative
concentration pathways: an overview, Clim. Change, 109, 5–31,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011.
Voulgarakis, A., Naik, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D. T., Young, P. J.,
Prather, M. J., Wild, O., Field, R. D., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P.,
Cionni, I., Collins, W. J., Dalsøren, S. B., Doherty, R. M., Eyring, V.,
Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G. A., Horowitz, L. W., Josse, B., MacKenzie, I. A.,
Nagashima, T., Plummer, D. A., Righi, M., Rumbold, S. T., Stevenson, D. S.,
Strode, S. A., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., and Zeng, G.: Analysis of present day and
future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys.,
13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013.
Watanabe, S., Hajima, T., Sudo, K., Nagashima, T., Takemura, T., Okajima, H.,
Nozawa, T., Kawase, H., Abe, M., Yokohata, T., Ise, T., Sato, H., Kato, E.,
Takata, K., Emori, S., and Kawamiya, M.: MIROC-ESM 2010: model description
and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 4,
845–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011, 2011.
Waugh, D. W., Oman, L., Kawa, S. R., Stolarski, R. S., Pawson, S., Douglass,
A. R., Newman, P. A., and Nielsen, J. E.: Impacts of climate change on
stratospheric ozone recovery, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L03805,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036223, 2009a.
Waugh, D. W., Oman, L., Newman, P. A., Stolarski, R. S., Pawson, S.,
Nielsen, J. E., and Perlwitz, J.: Effect of zonal asymmetries in
stratospheric ozone on simulated Southern Hemisphere climate trends,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L18701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040419, 2009b.
Wilcox, L. J., Charlton-Perez, A. J., and Gray, L. J.: Trends in Austral jet
position in ensembles of high- and low-top CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res.,
117, D13115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017597, 2012.
Wild, O.: Modelling the global tropospheric ozone budget: exploring the
variability in current models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 2643–2660,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2643-2007, 2007.
WMO: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, World Meteorological
Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 572 pp., 2007.
WMO: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, World Meteorological
Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 516 pp., 2011.
WMO: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2014, World Meteorological
Organization, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Geneva,
Switzerland, 2014.
Young, P. J., Rosenlof, K. H., Solomon, S., Sherwood, S. C., Fu, Q., and
Lamarque, J. F.: Changes in Stratospheric Temperatures and Their Implications
for Changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, 1979–2005, J. Climate, 25,
1759–1772, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli4048.1, 2011.
Young, P. J., Archibald, A. T., Bowman, K. W., Lamarque, J.-F., Naik, V.,
Stevenson, D. S., Tilmes, S., Voulgarakis, A., Wild, O., Bergmann, D.,
Cameron-Smith, P., Cionni, I., Collins, W. J., Dalsøren, S. B., Doherty,
R. M., Eyring, V., Faluvegi, G., Horowitz, L. W., Josse, B., Lee, Y. H.,
MacKenzie, I. A., Nagashima, T., Plummer, D. A., Righi, M., Rumbold, S. T.,
Skeie, R. B., Shindell, D. T., Strode, S. A., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., and Zeng,
G.: Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from
the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP),
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013a.
Young, P. J., Butler, A. H., Calvo, N., Haimberger, L., Kushner, P. J.,
Marsh, D. R., Randel, W. J., and Rosenlof, K. H.: Agreement in late twentieth
century Southern Hemisphere stratospheric temperature trends in observations
and CCMVal-2, CMIP3, and CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 605–613,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50126, 2013b.
Young, P. J., Davis, S. M., Hassler, B., Solomon, S., and Rosenlof, K. H.:
Modeling the climate impact of Southern Hemisphere ozone depletion: The
importance of the ozone data set, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 9033–9039,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061738, 2014.
Zeng, G. and Pyle, J. A.: Changes in tropospheric ozone between 2000 and
2100 modeled in a chemistry-climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1392,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016708, 2003.
Zeng, G., Pyle, J. A., and Young, P. J.: Impact of climate change on
tropospheric ozone and its global budgets, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 369–387,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-369-2008, 2008.
Zeng, G., Morgenstern, O., Braesicke, P., and Pyle, J. A.: Impact of
stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric ozone and its budget, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 37, L09805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042812, 2010.
Zou, C.-Z., Goldberg, M. D., Cheng, Z., Grody, N. C., Sullivan, J. T., Cao,
C., and Tarpley, D.: Recalibration of microwave sounding unit for climate
studies using simultaneous nadir overpasses, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D19114,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006798, 2006.
Zou, C.-Z., Gao, M., and Goldberg, M. D.: Error Structure and Atmospheric
Temperature Trends in Observations from the Microwave Sounding Unit, J.
Climate, 22, 1661–1681, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2233.1, 2009.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint