Articles | Volume 23, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12477-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12477-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Using synthetic case studies to explore the spread and calibration of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts
Andrew R. Jones
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Susan J. Leadbetter
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Matthew C. Hort
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
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Short summary
The paper explores spread and calibration properties of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts for hypothetical release events. Real-time forecasts from an ensemble weather prediction system were used to generate an ensemble of dispersion predictions and assessed against simulations produced using analysis meteorology. Results demonstrate good performance overall but highlight more skilful predictions for material released in the upper air compared with releases near the surface.
The paper explores spread and calibration properties of ensemble atmospheric dispersion...
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