Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
ACP
Articles | Volume 23, issue 19
Articles | Volume 23, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12477-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12477-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 23, issue 19
Research article
 | 
09 Oct 2023
Research article |  | 09 Oct 2023

Using synthetic case studies to explore the spread and calibration of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts

Andrew R. Jones, Susan J. Leadbetter, and Matthew C. Hort

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Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
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Short summary
The paper explores spread and calibration properties of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts for hypothetical release events. Real-time forecasts from an ensemble weather prediction system were used to generate an ensemble of dispersion predictions and assessed against simulations produced using analysis meteorology. Results demonstrate good performance overall but highlight more skilful predictions for material released in the upper air compared with releases near the surface.
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