Articles | Volume 23, issue 19
Research article
09 Oct 2023
Research article |  | 09 Oct 2023

Using synthetic case studies to explore the spread and calibration of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts

Andrew R. Jones, Susan J. Leadbetter, and Matthew C. Hort


Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-628', Slawomir Potempski, 08 May 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-628', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Jun 2023
  • AC1: 'Author Comment on egusphere-2023-628', Andrew Jones, 18 Aug 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Andrew Jones on behalf of the Authors (21 Aug 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (28 Aug 2023) by Stefano Galmarini
AR by Andrew Jones on behalf of the Authors (30 Aug 2023)
Short summary
The paper explores spread and calibration properties of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts for hypothetical release events. Real-time forecasts from an ensemble weather prediction system were used to generate an ensemble of dispersion predictions and assessed against simulations produced using analysis meteorology. Results demonstrate good performance overall but highlight more skilful predictions for material released in the upper air compared with releases near the surface.
Final-revised paper