Articles | Volume 23, issue 13
Research article
11 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 11 Jul 2023

Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates

Angshuman Modak and Thorsten Mauritsen

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Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Cited articles

Andrews, T. and Webb, M. J.: The Dependence of Global Cloud and Lapse Rate Feedbacks on the Spatial Structure of Tropical Pacific Warming, J. Climate, 31, 641–654,, 2018. a, b
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., and Webb, M. J.: The dependence of radiative forcing and feedback on evolving patterns of surface temperature change in climate models, J. Climate, 28, 1630–1648,, 2015. a
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Paynter, D., Silvers, L. G., Zhou, C., Mauritsen, T., Webb, M. J., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M., and Titchner, H.: Accounting for Changing Temperature Patterns Increases Historical Estimates of Climate Sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 8490–8499,, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Dong, Y., Armour, K., Paynter, D., Lin, P., Modak, A., Mauritsen, T., Cole, J., Medeiros, B., and et al.: On the effect of historical SST patterns on radiative feedback, Earth and Space Science Open Archive, p. 48,, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Armour, K. C.: Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 331–335,, 2017. a, b
Short summary
We provide an improved estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) constrained based on the instrumental temperature record including the corrections for the pattern effect. The improved estimate factors in the uncertainty caused by the underlying sea-surface temperature datasets used in the estimates of pattern effect. This together with the inter-model spread lifts the corresponding IPCC AR6 estimate to 3.2 K [1.8 to 11.0], which is lower and better constrained than in past studies.
Final-revised paper