Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates

Modak, Angshuman; Mauritsen, Thorsten

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023

Articles | Volume 23, issue 13

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 23, issue 13

Research article

|

11 Jul 2023

Research article |

| 11 Jul 2023

Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates

Angshuman Modak and Thorsten Mauritsen

Data sets

Better constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates A. Modak and T. Mauritsen https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7106446

GraphEM-infilled HadCRUT4.6.0.0 January 1850-December 2017 A. Vaccaro, J. Emile-Geay, D. Guillot, R. Verna, C. Morice, J. Kennedy, and B. Rajaratnam https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4601616

Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST) Met Office Hadley Centre https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/

Short summary

We provide an improved estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) constrained based on the instrumental temperature record including the corrections for the pattern effect. The improved estimate factors in the uncertainty caused by the underlying sea-surface temperature datasets used in the estimates of pattern effect. This together with the inter-model spread lifts the corresponding IPCC AR6 estimate to 3.2 K [1.8 to 11.0], which is lower and better constrained than in past studies.