Articles | Volume 19, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12731-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12731-2019
Research article
 | 
11 Oct 2019
Research article |  | 11 Oct 2019

Stratospheric ozone trends for 1985–2018: sensitivity to recent large variability

William T. Ball, Justin Alsing, Johannes Staehelin, Sean M. Davis, Lucien Froidevaux, and Thomas Peter

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Cited articles

Abalos, M., Polvani, L., Calvo, N., Kinnison, D., Ploeger, F., Randel, W., and Solomon, S.: New Insights on the Impact of Ozone-Depleting Substances on the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 2435–2451, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029301, 2019. a
Alsing, J.: dlmmc: Dynamical linear model regression for atmospheric time-series analysis, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01157, 2019. 
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Baldwin, M. P., Gray, L. J., Dunkerton, T. J., Hamilton, K., Haynes, P. H., Randel, W. J., Holton, J. R., Alexander, M. J., Hirota, I., Horinouchi, T., Jones, D. B. A., Kinnersley, J. S., Marquardt, C., Sato, K., and Takahashi, M.: The quasi-biennial oscillation, Rev. Geophys., 39, 179–229, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999RG000073, 2001. a
Ball, W. T., Haigh, J. D., Rozanov, E. V., Kuchar, A., Sukhodolov, T., Tummon, F., Shapiro, A. V., and Schmutz, W.: High solar cycle spectral variations inconsistent with stratospheric ozone observations, Nat. Geosci., 9, 206–209, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2640, 2016. a
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We analyse long-term stratospheric ozone (60° S–60° N) trends over the 1985–2018 period. Previous work has suggested that lower stratosphere ozone declined over 1998–2016. We demonstrate that a large ozone upsurge in 2017 is likely related to QBO variability, but that lower stratospheric ozone trends likely remain lower in 2018 than in 1998. Tropical stratospheric ozone (30° S–30° N) shows highly probable decreases in both the lower stratosphere and in the integrated stratospheric ozone layer.
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