Articles | Volume 19, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12731-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12731-2019
Research article
 | 
11 Oct 2019
Research article |  | 11 Oct 2019

Stratospheric ozone trends for 1985–2018: sensitivity to recent large variability

William T. Ball, Justin Alsing, Johannes Staehelin, Sean M. Davis, Lucien Froidevaux, and Thomas Peter

Data sets

BASIC v3 J. Alsing and William T. Ball https://doi.org/10.17632/2mgx2xzzpk.3

Model code and software

dlmmc: Dynamical linear model regression for atmospheric time-series analysis J. Alsing https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01157

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Short summary
We analyse long-term stratospheric ozone (60° S–60° N) trends over the 1985–2018 period. Previous work has suggested that lower stratosphere ozone declined over 1998–2016. We demonstrate that a large ozone upsurge in 2017 is likely related to QBO variability, but that lower stratospheric ozone trends likely remain lower in 2018 than in 1998. Tropical stratospheric ozone (30° S–30° N) shows highly probable decreases in both the lower stratosphere and in the integrated stratospheric ozone layer.
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