Articles | Volume 20, issue 13
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7829–7842, 2020
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7829–7842, 2020

Research article 06 Jul 2020

Research article | 06 Jul 2020

On the climate sensitivity and historical warming evolution in recent coupled model ensembles

Clare Marie Flynn and Thorsten Mauritsen

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Cited articles

Andrews, T., Andrews, M. B., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Jones, G. S., Kulhbrodt, T., Manners, J., Menary, M. B., Ridley, J., Ringer, M. A., Sellar, A. A., Senior, C. A., and Tang, Y.: Forcings, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4377–4394,, 2109. a
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09712,, 2012. a
Armour, K. C.: Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 1758–6798,, 2017. a
Arrhenius, S.: XXXI. On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground, The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, 41, 237–276,, 1896. a
Bellouin, N., Quaas, J., Gryspeerdt, E., Kinne, S., Stier, P., Watson-Parris, D., Boucher, O., Carslaw, K., Christensen, M., Daniau, A.-L., Dufresne, J.-L., Feingold, G., Fiedler, S., Forster, P., Gettelman, A., Haywood, J., Lohmann, U., Malavelle, F., Mauritsen, T., McCoy, D., Myhre, G., Mülmenstädt, J., Neubauer, D., Possner, A., Rugenstein, M., Sato, Y., Schulz, M., Schwartz, S., Sourdeval, O., Storelvmo, T., Toll, V., Winker, D., and Stevens, B.: Bounding global aerosol radiative forcing of climate change, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000660,, 2019. a
Short summary
The range of climate sensitivity of models participating in CMIP6 has increased relative to models participating in CMIP5 due to decreases in the total feedback parameter. This is caused by increases in the shortwave all-sky and clear-sky feedbacks, particularly over the Southern Ocean. These shifts between CMIP6 and CMIP5 did not arise by chance. Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are found to exhibit aerosol forcing that is too strong, causing too much cooling relative to observations.
Final-revised paper