Articles | Volume 20, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7829-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7829-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
On the climate sensitivity and historical warming evolution in recent coupled model ensembles
Clare Marie Flynn
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Thorsten Mauritsen
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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Cited
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- Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling O. Morgenstern
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- Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity A. Zehrung et al.
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- Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applications A. Merrifield et al.
- Plant Physiology Increases the Magnitude and Spread of the Transient Climate Response to CO2 in CMIP6 Earth System Models C. Zarakas et al.
- Using Climate Model Simulations to Constrain Observations B. Santer et al.
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- Emergent Constraints on Regional Cloud Feedbacks N. Lutsko et al.
- Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability N. Leach et al.
- On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback T. Andrews et al.
- Climate sensitivity from radiative-convective equilibrium: A chalkboard approach N. Jeevanjee
- Droughts and Mega-Droughts J. Lin et al.
- Understanding equilibrium climate sensitivity changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6: Feedback, AMOC, and precipitation responses X. Wang et al.
- Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Short Transient Warming Simulations R. Bastiaansen et al.
- Quantifying the influence of short-term emission reductions on climate J. Fyfe et al.
- The role of anthropogenic aerosols in the anomalous cooling from 1960 to 1990 in the CMIP6 Earth system models J. Zhang et al.
- Constraint on regional land surface air temperature projections in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble J. Zhang et al.
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95 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan E. Pihl et al.
- Minimal CMIP Emulator (MCE v1.2): a new simplified method for probabilistic climate projections J. Tsutsui
- Recent decadal weakening of the summer Eurasian westerly jet attributable to anthropogenic aerosol emissions B. Dong et al.
- Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950 M. Stolpe et al.
- Comparing different generations of idealized solar geoengineering simulations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) B. Kravitz et al.
- Evaluating the Impacts of Cloud Microphysical and Overlap Parameters on Simulated Clouds in Global Climate Models H. Wang et al.
- 基于卫星遥感<bold>、</bold>大气再分析及气候模式数据的北半球春季积雪反照率反馈评估研究 辉. 郭 & 雨. 杨
- Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates C. McKenna et al.
- Mean states and future projections of precipitation over the monsoon transitional zone in China in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models J. Piao et al.
- Evaluating Climate Models’ Cloud Feedbacks Against Expert Judgment M. Zelinka et al.
- Exploring ozone–climate interactions in idealized CMIP6 DECK experiments J. Wang et al.
- The fractional energy balance equation for climate projections through 2100 R. Procyk et al.
- Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models C. Smith et al.
- Role of Interhemispheric Heat Transport and Global Atmospheric Cooling in Multidecadal Trends of Northern Hemisphere Precipitation S. Yukimoto et al.
- Future precipitation and near surface air-temperature projection using CMIP6 models based on TOPSIS method: case study, Sistan-and-Baluchestan Province of Iran N. Pegahfar
- Potential current and future distribution for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Colombia: important disease vectors E. Mejía-Jurado et al.
- Assessing the warming biases in CMIP6 models: the roles of fast response and cumulative effects to external forcings J. Yan et al.
- Climate sensitivity indices and their relation with projected temperature change in CMIP6 models L. Huusko et al.
- Spurious Late Historical‐Era Warming in CESM2 Driven by Prescribed Biomass Burning Emissions J. Fasullo et al.
- Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia R. Fewster et al.
- Assessing the climate impact of an improved volcanic sulfate aerosol representation in E3SM Z. Ke et al.
- Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP S. Fiedler et al.
- Interplay between climate and carbon cycle feedbacks could substantially enhance future warming C. Kaufhold et al.
- Future Changes in Extreme High Temperature over China at 1.5°C–5°C Global Warming Based on CMIP6 Simulations G. Zhang et al.
- Projection of climate extremes in China, an incremental exercise from CMIP5 to CMIP6 H. Zhu et al.
- Land suitability analysis for turmeric crop for humid tropical Kerala, India, under current and future climate scenarios using advanced geospatial techniques M. Banu et al.
- Robust circulation changes in the tropics under a warming climate: a topical review T. Thomas & G. Bala
- Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective M. Rahimpour Asenjan et al.
- Quantifying the Spatio-Temporal Pattern Differences in Climate Change before and after the Turning Year in Southwest China over the Past 120 Years M. Wang et al.
- Future changes in Antarctic near-surface winds: regional variability and key drivers under a high-emission scenario C. Davrinche et al.
- Prospects for Detecting Accelerated Global Warming M. Richardson
- The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing in the 1850–1985 Strengthening of the AMOC in CMIP6 Historical Simulations J. Robson et al.
- Assessing streamflow and sediment responses to future climate change over the Upper Mekong River Basin: A comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models D. Ma et al.
- How Climate Change Will Shape Pesticide Application in Quebec’s Golf Courses: Insights with Deep Learning Based on Assessing CMIP5 and CMIP6 I. Ebtehaj et al.
- Community Integrated Earth System Model (CIESM): Description and Evaluation Y. Lin et al.
- Evaluating the performance of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating rainfall characteristics over West Africa M. Odunmorayo & E. Adefisan
- Monte Carlo drift correction – quantifying the drift uncertainty of global climate models B. Grandey et al.
- Evolution characteristics of extreme maximum temperature events in Central China and adaptation strategies under different future warming scenarios Y. Duan et al.
- Shallow cumulus cloud feedback in large eddy simulations – bridging the gap to storm-resolving models J. Radtke et al.
- BCC-ESM1 Model Datasets for the CMIP6 Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) J. Zhang et al.
- Accounting for Pacific climate variability increases projected global warming Y. Liang et al.
- The presence of clouds lowers climate sensitivity in the MPI-ESM1.2 climate model A. Mosso et al.
- Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations T. Aubry et al.
- Cloud Feedbacks from CanESM2 to CanESM5.0 and their influence on climate sensitivity J. Virgin et al.
- Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity C. Smith et al.
- How a Stable Greenhouse Effect on Earth Is Maintained Under Global Warming J. Feng et al.
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- Detailing cloud property feedbacks with a regime-based decomposition M. Zelinka et al.
- Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on Future Unprecedented Droughts in California: Insights From Multiple Indices and Multi‐Model Projections Z. Zhou et al.
- Spring snow-albedo feedback from satellite observation, reanalysis and model simulations over the Northern Hemisphere H. Guo & Y. Yang
- Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: historical performance and future changes X. Fan et al.
- How do value-judgements enter model-based assessments of climate sensitivity? S. Undorf et al.
- Efficient inference and learning of a generative model for ENSO predictions from large multi-model datasets A. Groth & E. Chavez
- Ocean heat uptake and interbasin redistribution driven by anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases S. Li et al.
- The aerosol pathway is crucial for observationally constraining climate sensitivity and anthropogenic forcing R. Skeie et al.
- Detecting Climate Signals Using Explainable AI With Single‐Forcing Large Ensembles Z. Labe & E. Barnes
- Human influence on frequency of temperature extremes T. Hu et al.
- 21st Century Scenario Forcing Increases More for CMIP6 Than CMIP5 Models H. Fredriksen et al.
- UKESM1.1: development and evaluation of an updated configuration of the UK Earth System Model J. Mulcahy et al.
- Quantifying impacts of precipitation and evapotranspiration on future runoff in the Han River basin using the Budyko framework D. Hong et al.
- On the increased climate sensitivity in the EC-Earth model from CMIP5 to CMIP6 K. Wyser et al.
- Croll, feedback mechanisms, climate change and the future R. THOMPSON
- Climate Sensitivity and Feedback of a New Coupled Model (K-ACE) to Idealized CO2 Forcing M. Sun et al.
- Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing and Multidecadal Internal Variability to Mid‐20th Century Arctic Cooling—CMIP6/DAMIP Multimodel Analysis T. Aizawa et al.
- The greater role of Southern Ocean warming compared to Arctic Ocean warming in shifting future tropical rainfall patterns H. Jeong et al.
- Unveiling the dominant control of the systematic cooling bias in CMIP6 models: quantification and corrective strategies J. Zhang et al.
- Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling O. Morgenstern
- Surface Temperature Pattern Scenarios Suggest Higher Warming Rates Than Current Projections M. Alessi & M. Rugenstein
- Machine learning of cloud types in satellite observations and climate models P. Kuma et al.
- Drivers of change in peak-season surface ozone concentrations and impacts on human health over the historical period (1850–2014) S. Turnock et al.
- Contrasting internally and externally generated Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the role for AMOC in CMIP6 historical simulations J. Robson et al.
- Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity A. Zehrung et al.
- Early Development and Tuning of a Global Coupled Cloud Resolving Model, and its Fast Response to Increasing CO2 T. Mauritsen et al.
- Climate change scenarios over Southeast Asia J. Sentian et al.
- Tuning the MPI‐ESM1.2 Global Climate Model to Improve the Match With Instrumental Record Warming by Lowering Its Climate Sensitivity T. Mauritsen & E. Roeckner
- Diverse Responses of Global‐Mean Surface Temperature to External Forcings and Internal Climate Variability in Observations and CMIP6 Models H. Rashid
- A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis D. Villa et al.
- Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applications A. Merrifield et al.
- Plant Physiology Increases the Magnitude and Spread of the Transient Climate Response to CO2 in CMIP6 Earth System Models C. Zarakas et al.
- Using Climate Model Simulations to Constrain Observations B. Santer et al.
- Strong aerosol cooling alone does not explain cold-biased mid-century temperatures in CMIP6 models C. Flynn et al.
- Emergent Constraints on Regional Cloud Feedbacks N. Lutsko et al.
- Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability N. Leach et al.
- On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback T. Andrews et al.
- Climate sensitivity from radiative-convective equilibrium: A chalkboard approach N. Jeevanjee
- Droughts and Mega-Droughts J. Lin et al.
- Understanding equilibrium climate sensitivity changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6: Feedback, AMOC, and precipitation responses X. Wang et al.
- Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Short Transient Warming Simulations R. Bastiaansen et al.
- Quantifying the influence of short-term emission reductions on climate J. Fyfe et al.
- The role of anthropogenic aerosols in the anomalous cooling from 1960 to 1990 in the CMIP6 Earth system models J. Zhang et al.
- Constraint on regional land surface air temperature projections in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble J. Zhang et al.
- Scenario choice impacts carbon allocation projection at global warming levels L. de Mora et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 16 May 2026
Short summary
The range of climate sensitivity of models participating in CMIP6 has increased relative to models participating in CMIP5 due to decreases in the total feedback parameter. This is caused by increases in the shortwave all-sky and clear-sky feedbacks, particularly over the Southern Ocean. These shifts between CMIP6 and CMIP5 did not arise by chance. Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are found to exhibit aerosol forcing that is too strong, causing too much cooling relative to observations.
The range of climate sensitivity of models participating in CMIP6 has increased relative to...
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