Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5209-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5209-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Apr 2019
Research article |
| 17 Apr 2019
| 17 Apr 2019
Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
now at: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University,
Lancaster, UK
Amanda C. Maycock
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science – Climate, Cambridge, UK
now at: School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds,
UK
Paul J. Telford
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science – Climate, Cambridge, UK
Peter Braesicke
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science – Climate, Cambridge, UK
now at: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Meteorology
and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
N. Luke Abraham
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science – Climate, Cambridge, UK
John A. Pyle
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science – Climate, Cambridge, UK
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Matthew Henry, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Jim Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13253–13268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13253-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13253-2024, 2024
Short summary
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Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) refers to a climate intervention by which aerosols are intentionally added to the high atmosphere to increase the amount of reflected sunlight and reduce Earth's temperature. The climate outcomes of SAI depend on the latitude of injection. While injecting aerosols at the Equator has undesirable side effects, injecting away from the Equator has different effects on temperature, rainfall, ozone, and atmospheric circulation, which are analysed in this work.
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This paper describes the details of a new multi-model intercomparison experiment to assess the effects of Stratospheric Aerosol Injections on stratospheric chemistry and dynamics and, therefore, ozone. In this experiment, all models will use the same prescribed stratospheric aerosol distribution and fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice. We discuss the advantages and differences of this more constrained experiment compared to previous more interactive model experiments.
Yunqian Zhu, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Valentina Aquila, Elisabeth Asher, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Christoph Brühl, Amy H. Butler, Parker Case, Simon Chabrillat, Gabriel Chiodo, Margot Clyne, Lola Falletti, Peter R. Colarco, Eric Fleming, Andrin Jörimann, Mahesh Kovilakam, Gerbrand Koren, Ales Kuchar, Nicolas Lebas, Qing Liang, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham Mann, Michael Manyin, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Newman, Luke D. Oman, Freja F. Østerstrøm, Yifeng Peng, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Samuel Rémy, Takashi Sekiya, Stephen Steenrod, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Rei Ueyama, Daniele Visioni, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Yousuke Yamashita, Pengfei Yu, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, and Zhihong Zhuo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3412, 2024
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To understand the climate impact of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption, we developed a climate model-observation comparison project. The paper describes the protocols and models that participate in the experiments. We designed several experiments to achieve our goal of this activity: 1. evaluate the climate model performance; 2. understand the Earth system responses to this eruption.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 191–213, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, 2024
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Injecting SO2 into the lower stratosphere can temporarily reduce global mean temperature and mitigate some risks associated with climate change, but injecting it at different latitudes and seasons would have different impacts. This study introduces new stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies and explores the importance of the choice of SAI strategy, demonstrating that it notably affects the distribution of aerosol cloud, injection efficiency, and various surface climate impacts.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Daniele Visioni, Yan Zhang, Ben Kravitz, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13665–13684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, 2023
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We use a state-of-the-art Earth system model and a set of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies to achieve the same level of global mean surface cooling through different combinations of location and/or timing of the injection. We demonstrate that the choice of SAI strategy can lead to contrasting impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, circulation, and chemistry (including stratospheric ozone), thereby leading to different impacts on regional surface climate.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13701–13711, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13701-2023, 2023
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We quantify, for the first time, the time-varying impact of uncontrolled emissions of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLSs) on stratospheric ozone using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model. We demonstrate that Cl-VSLSs already have a non-negligible impact on stratospheric ozone, including a local reduction of up to ~7 DU in Arctic ozone in the cold winter of 2019/20, and any so future growth in emissions will continue to offset some of the benefits of the Montreal Protocol.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, N. Luke Abraham, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6187–6209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6187-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6187-2023, 2023
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Development and performance of the new DEST chemistry scheme of UM–UKCA is described. The scheme extends the standard StratTrop scheme by including important updates to the halogen chemistry, thus allowing process-oriented studies of stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery, including impacts from both controlled long-lived ozone-depleting substances and emerging issues around uncontrolled, very short-lived substances. It will thus aid studies in support of future ozone assessment reports.
Matthew Henry, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Mohit Dalvi, Alice Wells, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Walker Lee, and Mari R. Tye
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13369–13385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, 2023
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Solar climate interventions, such as injecting sulfur in the stratosphere, may be used to offset some of the adverse impacts of global warming. We use two independently developed Earth system models to assess the uncertainties around stratospheric sulfur injections. The injection locations and amounts are optimized to maintain the same pattern of surface temperature. While both models show reduced warming, the change in rainfall patterns (even without sulfur injections) is uncertain.
Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Walker R. Lee, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 663–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, 2023
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The paper constitutes Part 1 of a study performing a first systematic inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SAIs) at various latitudes as simulated by three state-of-the-art Earth system models. We identify similarities and differences in the modeled aerosol burden, investigate the differences in the aerosol approaches between the models, and ultimately show the differences produced in surface climate, temperature and precipitation.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
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Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, Martyn P. Chipperfield, N. Luke Abraham, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10657–10676, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLS) over the first two decades of the 21st century are assessed using the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model. Stratospheric input of Cl from Cl-VSLS is estimated at ~130 ppt in 2019. The use of model set-up with constrained meteorology significantly increases the abundance of Cl-VSLS in the lower stratosphere relative to the free-running set-up. The growth in Cl-VSLS emissions significantly impacted recent HCl and COCl2 trends.
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This study assesses the impacts of climate interventions, using stratospheric sulfate aerosol and solar dimming on stratospheric ozone, based on three Earth system models with interactive stratospheric chemistry. The climate interventions have been applied to a high emission (baseline) scenario in order to reach global surface temperatures of a medium emission scenario. We find significant increases and decreases in total column ozone, depending on regions and seasons.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amanda C. Maycock, Peter Braesicke, Paul J. Telford, N. Luke Abraham, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9833–9846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019, 2019
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Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
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We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
James Keeble, Ewa M. Bednarz, Antara Banerjee, N. Luke Abraham, Neil R. P. Harris, Amanda C. Maycock, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13801–13818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13801-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13801-2017, 2017
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In this study we explore the chemical and transport processes controlling ozone abundances in different altitude regions in the tropics for the present day and how these processes may change in the future in order to determine when total-column ozone values in the tropics will recover to pre-1980s values following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments, which imposed bans on the use and emissions of CFCs.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amanda C. Maycock, N. Luke Abraham, Peter Braesicke, Olivier Dessens, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12159–12176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016, 2016
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Future trends in springtime Arctic ozone, and its chemical dynamical and radiative drivers, are analysed using a 7-member ensemble of chemistry–climate model integrations, allowing for a detailed assessment of interannual variability. Despite the future long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, there is large interannual variability and episodic reductions in springtime Arctic column ozone. Halogen chemistry will become a smaller but non-negligible driver of Arctic ozone variability over the century.
William J. Collins, Fiona M. O'Connor, Connor R. Barker, Rachael E. Byrom, Sebastian D. Eastham, Øivind Hodnebrog, Patrick Jöckel, Eloise A. Marais, Mariano Mertens, Gunnar Myhre, Matthias Nützel, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Laura Stecher, Larry W. Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Gregory Faluvegi, Ulas Im, Lee T. Murray, Drew Shindell, Kostas Tsigaridis, Nathan Luke Abraham, and James Keeble
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3698, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
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If reductions aren’t implemented to limit emissions of pollutants that produce ozone then we calculate that this will cause a warming of climate. We assess how the future warming from ozone is affected by changing meteorological variables such as clouds and atmospheric temperatures. We find that reductions in high cloud cover tend to slightly reduce the warming from ozone.
Matthew Henry, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Jim Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13253–13268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13253-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13253-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) refers to a climate intervention by which aerosols are intentionally added to the high atmosphere to increase the amount of reflected sunlight and reduce Earth's temperature. The climate outcomes of SAI depend on the latitude of injection. While injecting aerosols at the Equator has undesirable side effects, injecting away from the Equator has different effects on temperature, rainfall, ozone, and atmospheric circulation, which are analysed in this work.
Simone Tilmes, Ewa M. Bednarz, Andrin Jörimann, Daniele Visioni, Douglas E. Kinnison, Gabriel Chiodo, and David Plummer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3586, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the details of a new multi-model intercomparison experiment to assess the effects of Stratospheric Aerosol Injections on stratospheric chemistry and dynamics and, therefore, ozone. In this experiment, all models will use the same prescribed stratospheric aerosol distribution and fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice. We discuss the advantages and differences of this more constrained experiment compared to previous more interactive model experiments.
Yunqian Zhu, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Valentina Aquila, Elisabeth Asher, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Christoph Brühl, Amy H. Butler, Parker Case, Simon Chabrillat, Gabriel Chiodo, Margot Clyne, Lola Falletti, Peter R. Colarco, Eric Fleming, Andrin Jörimann, Mahesh Kovilakam, Gerbrand Koren, Ales Kuchar, Nicolas Lebas, Qing Liang, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham Mann, Michael Manyin, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Newman, Luke D. Oman, Freja F. Østerstrøm, Yifeng Peng, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Samuel Rémy, Takashi Sekiya, Stephen Steenrod, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Rei Ueyama, Daniele Visioni, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Yousuke Yamashita, Pengfei Yu, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, and Zhihong Zhuo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3412, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the climate impact of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption, we developed a climate model-observation comparison project. The paper describes the protocols and models that participate in the experiments. We designed several experiments to achieve our goal of this activity: 1. evaluate the climate model performance; 2. understand the Earth system responses to this eruption.
Jacob Perez, Amanda C. Maycock, Stephen D. Griffiths, Steven C. Hardiman, and Christine M. McKenna
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1061–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, 2024
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This study assesses existing methods for identifying the position and tilt of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, proposing a new feature-based approach. The new method overcomes limitations of other methods, offering a more robust characterisation. Contrary to prior findings, the distribution of daily latitudes shows no distinct multi-modal structure, challenging the notion of preferred jet stream latitudes or regimes. This research enhances our understanding of North Atlantic dynamics.
Yvonne Anderson, Jacob Perez, and Amanda C. Maycock
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2506, 2024
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The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the North Atlantic jet stream is debated, with some linking changes to ice loss and others to natural variability. This study uses a new method to explore how future sea ice loss will affect the jet stream. In half of the models, the jet shifts equatorward, but its speed and tilt are unchanged. Some models also exhibit more jet splitting. The results suggest that future sea ice loss is unlikely to significantly weaken the jet stream or make it more variable.
Rémy Bonnet, Christine M. McKenna, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 913–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024, 2024
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Climate models underestimate multidecadal winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability. Understanding the origin of this weak variability is important for making reliable climate projections. We use multi-model climate simulations to explore statistical relationships with drivers that may contribute to NAO variability. We find a relationship between modelled stratosphere–troposphere coupling and multidecadal NAO variability, offering an avenue to improve the simulation of NAO variability.
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-16, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
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Our study examines potential changes in heatwaves in Central Europe due to global warming, using the 2019 summer heatwave as an example. By producing high-resolution storylines, we offer insights into how future heatwaves might spread, persist longer, and where stronger or weaker temperature increases may occur. This research helps understand regional thermodynamic responses and highlights the importance of local strategies to protect communities from future heat events.
Maria Rosa Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-73, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Observational data and modelling capabilities are expanding in recent years, but there are still barriers preventing these two data sources to be used in synergy. Proper comparison requires generating, storing and handling a large amount of data. This manuscript describes the first step in the development of a new set of software tools, the ‘VISION toolkit’, which can enable the easy and efficient integration of observational and model data required for model evaluation.
Lauren R. Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Andrew P. Schurer, Nathan Luke Abraham, Lucie J. Lücke, Rob Wilson, Kevin Anchukaitis, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Myriam Khodri, and Kohei Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1322, 2024
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Large volcanic eruptions have caused temperature deviations over the past 1000 years, however climate model results and reconstructions of surface cooling using tree-rings do not match. We explore this mismatch using the latest models and find a better match to tree-ring reconstructions for some eruptions. Our results show that the way in which eruptions are simulated in models matters for the comparison to tree-rings, particularly regarding the spatial spread of volcanic aerosol.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 191–213, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Injecting SO2 into the lower stratosphere can temporarily reduce global mean temperature and mitigate some risks associated with climate change, but injecting it at different latitudes and seasons would have different impacts. This study introduces new stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies and explores the importance of the choice of SAI strategy, demonstrating that it notably affects the distribution of aerosol cloud, injection efficiency, and various surface climate impacts.
William J. Dow, Christine M. McKenna, Manoj M. Joshi, Adam T. Blaker, Richard Rigby, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, 2024
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Changes to sea surface temperatures in the extratropical North Pacific are driven partly by patterns of local atmospheric circulation, such as the Aleutian Low. We show that an intensification of the Aleutian Low could contribute to small changes in temperatures across the equatorial Pacific via the initiation of two mechanisms. The effect, although significant, is unlikely to explain fully the recently observed multi-year shift of a pattern of climate variability across the wider Pacific.
Alexander T. Archibald, Bablu Sinha, Maria Russo, Emily Matthews, Freya Squires, N. Luke Abraham, Stephane Bauguitte, Thomas Bannan, Thomas Bell, David Berry, Lucy Carpenter, Hugh Coe, Andrew Coward, Peter Edwards, Daniel Feltham, Dwayne Heard, Jim Hopkins, James Keeble, Elizabeth C. Kent, Brian King, Isobel R. Lawrence, James Lee, Claire R. Macintosh, Alex Megann, Ben I. Moat, Katie Read, Chris Reed, Malcolm Roberts, Reinhard Schiemann, David Schroeder, Tim Smyth, Loren Temple, Navaneeth Thamban, Lisa Whalley, Simon Williams, Huihui Wu, and Ming-Xi Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-405, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-405, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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Here we present an overview of the data generated as part of the North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Studies (ACSIS) programme which are available through dedicated repositories at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA, www.ceda.ac.uk) and the British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC, bodc.ac.uk). ACSIS data cover the full North Atlantic System comprising: the North Atlantic Ocean, the atmosphere above it including its composition, Arctic Sea Ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Ben A. Cala, Scott Archer-Nicholls, James Weber, N. Luke Abraham, Paul T. Griffiths, Lorrie Jacob, Y. Matthew Shin, Laura E. Revell, Matthew Woodhouse, and Alexander T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14735–14760, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14735-2023, 2023
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Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is an important trace gas emitted from the ocean recognised as setting the sulfate aerosol background, but its oxidation is complex. As a result representation in chemistry-climate models is greatly simplified. We develop and compare a new mechanism to existing mechanisms via a series of global and box model experiments. Our studies show our updated DMS scheme is a significant improvement but significant variance exists between mechanisms.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Daniele Visioni, Yan Zhang, Ben Kravitz, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13665–13684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a state-of-the-art Earth system model and a set of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies to achieve the same level of global mean surface cooling through different combinations of location and/or timing of the injection. We demonstrate that the choice of SAI strategy can lead to contrasting impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, circulation, and chemistry (including stratospheric ozone), thereby leading to different impacts on regional surface climate.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13701–13711, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13701-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify, for the first time, the time-varying impact of uncontrolled emissions of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLSs) on stratospheric ozone using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model. We demonstrate that Cl-VSLSs already have a non-negligible impact on stratospheric ozone, including a local reduction of up to ~7 DU in Arctic ozone in the cold winter of 2019/20, and any so future growth in emissions will continue to offset some of the benefits of the Montreal Protocol.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, N. Luke Abraham, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6187–6209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6187-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6187-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Development and performance of the new DEST chemistry scheme of UM–UKCA is described. The scheme extends the standard StratTrop scheme by including important updates to the halogen chemistry, thus allowing process-oriented studies of stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery, including impacts from both controlled long-lived ozone-depleting substances and emerging issues around uncontrolled, very short-lived substances. It will thus aid studies in support of future ozone assessment reports.
Matthew Henry, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Mohit Dalvi, Alice Wells, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Walker Lee, and Mari R. Tye
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13369–13385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar climate interventions, such as injecting sulfur in the stratosphere, may be used to offset some of the adverse impacts of global warming. We use two independently developed Earth system models to assess the uncertainties around stratospheric sulfur injections. The injection locations and amounts are optimized to maintain the same pattern of surface temperature. While both models show reduced warming, the change in rainfall patterns (even without sulfur injections) is uncertain.
Monali Borthakur, Miriam Sinnhuber, Alexandra Laeng, Thomas Reddmann, Peter Braesicke, Gabriele Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Bernd Funke, Ilya Usoskin, Jan Maik Wissing, and Olesya Yakovchuk
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12985–13013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12985-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12985-2023, 2023
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Reduced ozone levels resulting from ozone depletion mean more exposure to UV radiation, which has various effects on human health. We analysed solar events to see what influence it has on the chemistry of Earth's atmosphere and how this atmospheric chemistry change can affect the ozone. To do this, we used an atmospheric model considering only chemistry and compared it with satellite data. The focus was mainly on the contribution of chlorine, and we found about 10 %–20 % ozone loss due to that.
Christopher D. Wells, Lawrence S. Jackson, Amanda C. Maycock, and Piers M. Forster
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 817–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-817-2023, 2023
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There are many possibilities for future emissions, with different impacts in different places. Complex models can study these impacts but take a long time to run, even on powerful computers. Simple methods can be used to reduce this time by estimating the complex model output, but these are not perfect. This study looks at the accuracy of one of these techniques, showing that there are limitations to its use, especially for low-emission future scenarios.
Christian Scharun, Roland Ruhnke, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-91, 2023
Publication in GMD not foreseen
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The identification and quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is an important task for monitoring mitigation strategies under climate change. With RICHARD 1.0, we developed a novel approach using spatiotemporal proxy data and a selection algorithm to detect GHG emission hotspots. By using a one year dataset of global climate model output we showed that RICHARD is able to determine and quantify the source strengths of GHG emission hotspots much more precisely than conventional methods.
Maria Rosa Russo, Brian John Kerridge, Nathan Luke Abraham, James Keeble, Barry Graham Latter, Richard Siddans, James Weber, Paul Thomas Griffiths, John Adrian Pyle, and Alexander Thomas Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6169–6196, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6169-2023, 2023
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Tropospheric ozone is an important component of the Earth system as it can affect both climate and air quality. In this work we use observed tropospheric ozone derived from satellite observations and compare it to tropospheric ozone from model simulations. Our aim is to investigate recent changes (2005–2018) in tropospheric ozone in the North Atlantic region and to understand what factors are driving such changes.
Scott Archer-Nicholls, Rachel Allen, Nathan L. Abraham, Paul T. Griffiths, and Alex T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5801–5813, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5801-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5801-2023, 2023
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The nitrate radical is a major oxidant at nighttime, but much less is known about it than about the other oxidants ozone and OH. We use Earth system model calculations to show how the nitrate radical has changed in abundance from 1850–2014 and to 2100 under a range of different climate and emission scenarios. Depending on the emissions and climate scenario, significant increases are projected with implications for the oxidation of volatile organic compounds and the formation of fine aerosol.
Eric Förster, Harald Bönisch, Marco Neumaier, Florian Obersteiner, Andreas Zahn, Andreas Hilboll, Anna B. Kalisz Hedegaard, Nikos Daskalakis, Alexandros Panagiotis Poulidis, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Michael Lichtenstern, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1893–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1893-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1893-2023, 2023
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The airborne megacity campaign EMeRGe provided an unprecedented amount of trace gas measurements. We combine measured volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with trajectory-modelled emission uptakes to identify potential source regions of pollution. We also characterise the chemical fingerprints (e.g. biomass burning and anthropogenic signatures) of the probed air masses to corroborate the contributing source regions. Our approach is the first large-scale study of VOCs originating from megacities.
Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Walker R. Lee, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 663–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, 2023
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The paper constitutes Part 1 of a study performing a first systematic inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SAIs) at various latitudes as simulated by three state-of-the-art Earth system models. We identify similarities and differences in the modeled aerosol burden, investigate the differences in the aerosol approaches between the models, and ultimately show the differences produced in surface climate, temperature and precipitation.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
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Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, Martyn P. Chipperfield, N. Luke Abraham, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10657–10676, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLS) over the first two decades of the 21st century are assessed using the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model. Stratospheric input of Cl from Cl-VSLS is estimated at ~130 ppt in 2019. The use of model set-up with constrained meteorology significantly increases the abundance of Cl-VSLS in the lower stratosphere relative to the free-running set-up. The growth in Cl-VSLS emissions significantly impacted recent HCl and COCl2 trends.
Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Andy Jones, James Haywood, Roland Séférian, Pierre Nabat, Olivier Boucher, Ewa Monica Bednarz, and Ulrike Niemeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4557–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, 2022
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This study assesses the impacts of climate interventions, using stratospheric sulfate aerosol and solar dimming on stratospheric ozone, based on three Earth system models with interactive stratospheric chemistry. The climate interventions have been applied to a high emission (baseline) scenario in order to reach global surface temperatures of a medium emission scenario. We find significant increases and decreases in total column ozone, depending on regions and seasons.
Florian Haenel, Wolfgang Woiwode, Jennifer Buchmüller, Felix Friedl-Vallon, Michael Höpfner, Sören Johansson, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Oliver Kirner, Anne Kleinert, Hermann Oelhaf, Johannes Orphal, Roland Ruhnke, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Jörn Ungermann, Michael Weimer, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2843–2870, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2843-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2843-2022, 2022
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We compare remote sensing observations of H2O, O3, HNO3 and clouds in the upper troposphere–lowermost stratosphere during an Arctic winter long-range research flight with simulations by two different state-of-the-art model systems. We find good agreement for dynamical structures, trace gas distributions and clouds. We investigate model biases and sensitivities, with the goal of aiding model development and improving our understanding of processes in the upper troposphere–lowermost stratosphere.
Christopher J. Diekmann, Matthias Schneider, Benjamin Ertl, Frank Hase, Omaira García, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Eliezer Sepúlveda, Peter Knippertz, and Peter Braesicke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5273–5292, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5273-2021, 2021
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The joint analysis of different stable water isotopes in water vapour is a powerful tool for investigating atmospheric moisture pathways. This paper presents a novel global and multi-annual dataset of H2O and HDO in mid-tropospheric water vapour by using data from the satellite sensor Metop/IASI. Due to its unique combination of coverage and resolution in space and time, this dataset is highly promising for studying the hydrological cycle and its representation in weather and climate models.
Anthony C. Jones, Adrian Hill, Samuel Remy, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Catherine Hardacre, Alan J. Hewitt, Ben Johnson, Jane P. Mulcahy, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15901–15927, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15901-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15901-2021, 2021
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Ammonium nitrate is hard to model because it forms and evaporates rapidly. One approach is to relate its equilibrium concentration to temperature, humidity, and the amount of nitric acid and ammonia gases. Using this approach, we limit the rate at which equilibrium is reached using various condensation rates in a climate model. We show that ammonium nitrate concentrations are highly sensitive to the condensation rate. Our results will help improve the representation of nitrate in climate models.
James Weber, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Nathan Luke Abraham, Youngsub M. Shin, Thomas J. Bannan, Carl J. Percival, Asan Bacak, Paulo Artaxo, Michael Jenkin, M. Anwar H. Khan, Dudley E. Shallcross, Rebecca H. Schwantes, Jonathan Williams, and Alex T. Archibald
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5239–5268, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5239-2021, 2021
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The new mechanism CRI-Strat 2 features state-of-the-art isoprene chemistry not previously available in UKCA and improves UKCA's ability to reproduce observed concentrations of isoprene, monoterpenes, and OH in tropical regions. The enhanced ability to model isoprene, the most widely emitted non-methane volatile organic compound (VOC), will allow understanding of how isoprene and other biogenic VOCs affect atmospheric composition and, through biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks, climate change.
Michael Weimer, Jennifer Buchmüller, Lars Hoffmann, Ole Kirner, Beiping Luo, Roland Ruhnke, Michael Steiner, Ines Tritscher, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9515–9543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9515-2021, 2021
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We show that we are able to directly simulate polar stratospheric clouds formed locally in a mountain wave and represent their effect on the ozone chemistry with the global atmospheric chemistry model ICON-ART. Thus, we show the first simulations that close the gap between directly resolved mountain-wave-induced polar stratospheric clouds and their representation at coarse global resolutions.
John Staunton-Sykes, Thomas J. Aubry, Youngsub M. Shin, James Weber, Lauren R. Marshall, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex Archibald, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9009–9029, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9009-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9009-2021, 2021
Ashok K. Luhar, Ian E. Galbally, Matthew T. Woodhouse, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7053–7082, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7053-2021, 2021
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Lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) greatly influence tropospheric photochemistry. The most common parameterisation of lightning flash rate used to calculate LNOx in global composition models underestimates measurements over the ocean by a factor of 20–25. We formulate and validate an alternative parameterisation to remedy this problem. The new scheme causes an increase in the ozone burden by 8.5 % and the hydroxyl radical by 13 %, and these have implications for climate and air quality.
Ananth Ranjithkumar, Hamish Gordon, Christina Williamson, Andrew Rollins, Kirsty Pringle, Agnieszka Kupc, Nathan Luke Abraham, Charles Brock, and Ken Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4979–5014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4979-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4979-2021, 2021
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The effect aerosols have on climate can be better understood by studying their vertical and spatial distribution throughout the atmosphere. We use observation data from the ATom campaign and evaluate the vertical profile of aerosol number concentration, sulfur dioxide and condensation sink using the UKESM (UK Earth System Model). We identify uncertainties in key atmospheric processes that help improve their theoretical representation in global climate models.
Paul T. Griffiths, Lee T. Murray, Guang Zeng, Youngsub Matthew Shin, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Ian E. Galbally, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Jane Liu, Omid Moeini, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, David Tarasick, Simone Tilmes, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Paul J. Young, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4187–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, 2021
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We analyse the CMIP6 Historical and future simulations for tropospheric ozone, a species which is important for many aspects of atmospheric chemistry. We show that the current generation of models agrees well with observations, being particularly successful in capturing trends in surface ozone and its vertical distribution in the troposphere. We analyse the factors that control ozone and show that they evolve over the period of the CMIP6 experiments.
Peter Sherman, Meng Gao, Shaojie Song, Alex T. Archibald, Nathan Luke Abraham, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew Shindell, Gregory Faluvegi, and Michael B. McElroy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3593–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3593-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3593-2021, 2021
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The aims here are to assess the role of aerosols in India's monsoon precipitation and to determine the relative contributions from Chinese and Indian emissions using CMIP6 models. We find that increased sulfur emissions reduce precipitation, which is primarily dynamically driven due to spatial shifts in convection over the region. A significant increase in precipitation (up to ~ 20 %) is found only when both Indian and Chinese sulfate emissions are regulated.
Jacob W. Smith, Peter H. Haynes, Amanda C. Maycock, Neal Butchart, and Andrew C. Bushell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2469–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021, 2021
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This paper informs realistic simulation of stratospheric water vapour by clearly attributing each of the two key influences on water vapour entry to the stratosphere. Presenting modified trajectory models, the results of this paper show temperatures dominate on annual and inter-annual variations; however, transport has a significant effect in reducing the annual cycle maximum. Furthermore, sub-seasonal variations in temperature have an important overall influence.
Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson, Ron Kahana, James Keeble, Byeonghyeon Kim, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Mark Richardson, Eddy Robertson, Jeongbyn Seo, Sungbo Shim, João C. Teixeira, Steven T. Turnock, Jonny Williams, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Stephanie Woodward, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1211–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, 2021
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This paper calculates how changes in emissions and/or concentrations of different atmospheric constituents since the pre-industrial era have altered the Earth's energy budget at the present day using a metric called effective radiative forcing. The impact of land use change is also assessed. We find that individual contributions do not add linearly, and different Earth system interactions can affect the magnitude of the calculated effective radiative forcing.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
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This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
James L. France, Prudence Bateson, Pamela Dominutti, Grant Allen, Stephen Andrews, Stephane Bauguitte, Max Coleman, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Rebecca E. Fisher, Langwen Huang, Anna E. Jones, James Lee, David Lowry, Joseph Pitt, Ruth Purvis, John Pyle, Jacob Shaw, Nicola Warwick, Alexandra Weiss, Shona Wilde, Jonathan Witherstone, and Stuart Young
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-71-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-71-2021, 2021
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Measuring emission rates of methane from installations is tricky, and it is even more so when those installations are located offshore. Here, we show the aircraft set-up and demonstrate an effective methodology for surveying emissions from UK and Dutch offshore oil and gas installations. We present example data collected from two campaigns to demonstrate the challenges and solutions encountered during these surveys.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin Johnson, Colin G. Jones, Adam C. Povey, Catherine E. Scott, Alistair Sellar, Steven T. Turnock, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Nathan Luke Abraham, Martin B. Andrews, Nicolas Bellouin, Jo Browse, Ken S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Matthew Glover, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Catherine Hardacre, Richard Hill, Ben Johnson, Andy Jones, Zak Kipling, Graham Mann, James Mollard, Fiona M. O'Connor, Julien Palmiéri, Carly Reddington, Steven T. Rumbold, Mark Richardson, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Philip Stier, Marc Stringer, Yongming Tang, Jeremy Walton, Stephanie Woodward, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6383–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, 2020
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Aerosols are an important component of the Earth system. Here, we comprehensively document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in the physical and Earth system models, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1. This study provides a useful characterisation of the aerosol climatology in both models, facilitating the understanding of the numerous aerosol–climate interaction studies that will be conducted for CMIP6 and beyond.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Graham W. Mann, Juan Carlos Antuña Marrero, Sarah E. Shallcross, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Lauren Marshall, N. Luke Abraham, and Colin E. Johnson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13627–13654, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13627-2020, 2020
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We confirm downward adjustment of SO2 emission to simulate the Pinatubo aerosol cloud with aerosol microphysics models. Similar adjustment is also needed to simulate the El Chichón and Agung volcanic cloud, indicating potential missing removal or vertical redistribution process in models. Important inhomogeneities in the CMIP6 forcing datasets after Agung and El Chichón eruptions are difficult to reconcile. Quasi-biennial oscillation plays an important role in modifying stratospheric warming.
Andrew Orr, J. Scott Hosking, Aymeric Delon, Lars Hoffmann, Reinhold Spang, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, James Keeble, Nathan Luke Abraham, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12483–12497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12483-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12483-2020, 2020
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Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are clouds found in the Antarctic winter stratosphere and are implicated in the formation of the ozone hole. These clouds can sometimes be formed or enhanced by mountain waves, formed as air passes over hills or mountains. However, this important mechanism is missing in coarse-resolution climate models, limiting our ability to simulate ozone. This study examines an attempt to include the effects of mountain waves and their impact on PSCs and ozone.
Matt Amos, Paul J. Young, J. Scott Hosking, Jean-François Lamarque, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, David A. Plummer, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9961–9977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, 2020
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We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models. To do so, we employ a method, more advanced and skilful than the current multi-model mean standard, which is applicable to other ensemble analyses. It calculates the performance and similarity of the models, which we then use to weight the model. Calculating model similarity allows us to account for models which are constructed from similar components.
James Keeble, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Paul T. Griffiths, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7153–7166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020, 2020
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The Montreal Protocol was agreed in 1987 to limit and then stop the production of man-made CFCs, which destroy stratospheric ozone. As a result, the atmospheric abundances of CFCs are now declining in the atmosphere. However, the atmospheric abundance of CFC-11 is not declining as expected under complete compliance with the Montreal Protocol. Using the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model, we explore the impact of future unregulated production of CFC-11 on ozone recovery.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 155–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-155-2020, 2020
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We perform 50-year-long time-slice experiments using the Met Office HadGEM3 global climate model in order to decompose the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 in three distinct components, (a) the rapid adjustment, associated with CO2 radiative effects; (b) a global uniform sea surface temperature warming; and (c) sea surface temperature patterns. This demonstrates a potential for fast and slow timescales of the response of the BDC to greenhouse gas forcing.
Clara Orbe, David A. Plummer, Darryn W. Waugh, Huang Yang, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas E. Kinnison, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Makoto Deushi, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Wuhu Feng, and Slimane Bekki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3809–3840, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3809-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3809-2020, 2020
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Atmospheric composition is strongly influenced by global-scale winds that are not always properly simulated in computer models. A common approach to correct for this bias is to relax or
nudgeto the observed winds. Here we systematically evaluate how well this technique performs across a large suite of chemistry–climate models in terms of its ability to reproduce key aspects of both the tropospheric and stratospheric circulations.
Alexander T. Archibald, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Fraser Dennison, Sandip S. Dhomse, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Alan J. Hewitt, Richard S. Hill, Colin E. Johnson, James Keeble, Marcus O. Köhler, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Carlos Ordóñez, Richard J. Pope, Steven T. Rumbold, Maria R. Russo, Nicholas H. Savage, Alistair Sellar, Marc Stringer, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1223–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, 2020
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Here we present a description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). UKCA StratTrop represents a substantial step forward compared to previous versions of UKCA. We show here that it is fully suited to the challenges of representing interactions in a coupled Earth system model and identify key areas and components for future development that will make it even better in the future.
Conor G. Bolas, Valerio Ferracci, Andrew D. Robinson, Mohammed I. Mead, Mohd Shahrul Mohd Nadzir, John A. Pyle, Roderic L. Jones, and Neil R. P. Harris
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 821–838, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-821-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-821-2020, 2020
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Here we present the iDirac, a new instrument capable of making isoprene measurements in remote and challenging environments. The iDirac is a customisable and rugged field instrument for investigating emissions of volatile organic compounds from vegetation. It has been tested here in a series of experiments to ensure a high degree of technical precision, accuracy and repeatability. This new instrument allows us to ask and answer new questions about the influence of vegetation on the atmosphere.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Sophie Szopa, Ann R. Stavert, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Virginie Marécal, Fiona M. O'Connor, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13701–13723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, 2019
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The role of hydroxyl radical changes in methane trends is debated, hindering our understanding of the methane cycle. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical may influence methane abundance in the atmosphere based on the inter-model comparison of hydroxyl radical fields and model simulations of CH4 abundance with different hydroxyl radical scenarios during 2000–2016. We show that hydroxyl radical changes could contribute up to 54 % of model-simulated methane biases.
Marleen Braun, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Wolfgang Woiwode, Sören Johansson, Michael Höpfner, Felix Friedl-Vallon, Hermann Oelhaf, Peter Preusse, Jörn Ungermann, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Helmut Ziereis, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13681–13699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13681-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13681-2019, 2019
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We analyse nitrification of the LMS in the Arctic winter 2015–2016 based on GLORIA measurements. Vertical cross sections of HNO3 for several flights show complex fine–scale structures and enhanced values down to 9 km. The extent of overall nitrification is quantified based on HNO3–O3 correlations and reaches between 5 ppbv and 7 ppbv at potential temperature levels between 350 and 380 K. Further, we compare our result with the atmospheric model CLaMS.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Hella Garny, Douglas Kinnison, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Makoto Deushi, Rolando R. Garcia, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11559–11586, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, 2019
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We perform the first multi-model comparison of the impact of nudged meteorology on the stratospheric residual circulation (RC) in chemistry–climate models. Nudging meteorology does not constrain the mean strength of RC compared to free-running simulations, and despite the lack of agreement in the mean circulation, nudging tightly constrains the inter-annual variability in the tropical upward mass flux in the lower stratosphere. In summary, nudging strongly affects the representation of RC.
Kévin Lamy, Thierry Portafaix, Béatrice Josse, Colette Brogniez, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Hassan Bencherif, Laura Revell, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Ben Liley, Virginie Marecal, Olaf Morgenstern, Andrea Stenke, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Neil Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Glauco Di Genova, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rong-Ming Hu, Douglas Kinnison, Michael Kotkamp, Richard McKenzie, Martine Michou, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10087–10110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, 2019
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In this study, we simulate the ultraviolet radiation evolution during the 21st century on Earth's surface using the output from several numerical models which participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. We present four possible futures which depend on greenhouse gases emissions. The role of ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases and aerosols are investigated. Our results emphasize the important role of aerosols for future ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere.
David C. Wade, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alexander Farnsworth, Paul J. Valdes, Fran Bragg, and Alexander T. Archibald
Clim. Past, 15, 1463–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1463-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1463-2019, 2019
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The amount of O2 in the atmosphere may have varied from as little as 10 % to as much as 35 % during the last 541 Myr. These changes are large enough to have led to changes in atmospheric mass, which may alter the radiative budget of the atmosphere. We present the first fully 3-D numerical model simulations to investigate the climate impacts of changes in O2 during different climate states. We identify a complex new mechanism causing increases in surface temperature when O2 levels were higher.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amanda C. Maycock, Peter Braesicke, Paul J. Telford, N. Luke Abraham, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9833–9846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019, 2019
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The atmospheric response to the amplitude of 11-year solar cycle in UM-UKCA is separated into the contributions from changes in direct radiative heating and photolysis rates, and the results compared with a control case with both effects included. We find that while the tropical responses are largely additive, this is not necessarily the case in the high latitudes. We suggest that solar-induced changes in ozone are important for modulating the SH dynamical response to the 11-year solar cycle.
Nils König, Peter Braesicke, and Thomas von Clarmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 4113–4129, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-4113-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-4113-2019, 2019
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Inference of the tropopause from temperature profiles of finite vertical resolution entails an uncertainty of the tropopause altitude. We assess this effect by degrading the resolution of the sonde data. The tropopause altitude inferred from coarse grid profiles was found to be lower than that inferred from the original profiles for tropical and midlatitudinal radiosonde profiles. The mean displacement of the lapse rate tropopause inferred from a 3 km resolution profile is −400 m for Hilo.
Zainab Q. Hakim, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Gufran Beig, Gerd A. Folberth, Kengo Sudo, Nathan Luke Abraham, Sachin Ghude, Daven K. Henze, and Alexander T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6437–6458, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6437-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6437-2019, 2019
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Surface ozone is an important air pollutant and recent work has calculated that large numbers of people die prematurely because of exposure to high levels of surface ozone in India. However, these calculations require model simulations of ozone as key inputs.
Here we perform the most thorough evaluation of global model surface ozone over India to date. These analyses of model simulations and observations highlight some successes and shortcomings and the need for further process-based studies.
Fraser Dennison, James Keeble, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, and Xin Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1227–1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1227-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1227-2019, 2019
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Two developments are made to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) model to improve simulation of stratospheric ozone. The first is the addition of a solar cycle. The influence on ozone from the solar cycle is found to be 1–2 %, which is consistent with other studies. The second is to the heterogeneous chemistry, the most significant change being the addition of reactions involving bromine species. This was shown to reduce ozone biases relative to observations in most regions.
Winfried Hoke, Tina Swierczynski, Peter Braesicke, Karin Lochte, Len Shaffrey, Martin Drews, Hilppa Gregow, Ralf Ludwig, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Elisa Palazzi, Gianmaria Sannino, Lars Henrik Smedsrud, and ECRA network
Adv. Geosci., 46, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-46-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-46-1-2019, 2019
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The European Climate Research Alliance is a bottom-up association of European research institutions helping to facilitate the development of climate change research, combining the capacities of national research institutions and inducing closer ties between existing national research initiatives, projects and infrastructures. This article briefly introduces the network's structure and organisation, as well as project management issues and prospects.
Johannes Eckstein, Roland Ruhnke, Stephan Pfahl, Emanuel Christner, Christopher Diekmann, Christoph Dyroff, Daniel Reinert, Daniel Rieger, Matthias Schneider, Jennifer Schröter, Andreas Zahn, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5113–5133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, 2018
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We present ICON-ART-Iso, an extension to the global circulation model ICON, which allows for the simulation of the stable isotopologues of water. The main advantage over other isotope-enabled models is its flexible design with respect to the number of tracers simulated. We compare the results of several simulations to measurements of different scale. ICON-ART-Iso is able to reasonably reproduce the measurements. It is a promising tool to aid in the investigation of the atmospheric water cycle.
Samuel R. Hall, Kirk Ullmann, Michael J. Prather, Clare M. Flynn, Lee T. Murray, Arlene M. Fiore, Gustavo Correa, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jonathan Guth, Béatrice Josse, Johannes Flemming, Vincent Huijnen, N. Luke Abraham, and Alex T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16809–16828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, 2018
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Photolysis (J rates) initiates and drives atmospheric chemistry, and Js are perturbed by factors of 2 by clouds. The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) Mission provides the first comprehensive observations on how clouds perturb Js through the remote Pacific and Atlantic basins. We compare these cloud-perturbation J statistics with those from nine global chemistry models. While basic patterns agree, there is a large spread across models, and all lack some basic features of the observations.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Fiona Tummon, Aryeh Feinberg, Eugene Rozanov, Thomas Peter, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Robyn Schofield, Kane Stone, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16155–16172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, 2018
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Global models such as those participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) consistently simulate biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We performed an advanced statistical analysis with one of the CCMI models to understand the cause of the bias. We found that emissions of ozone precursor gases are the dominant driver of the bias, implying either that the emissions are too large, or that the way in which the model handles emissions needs to be improved.
Jennifer Schröter, Daniel Rieger, Christian Stassen, Heike Vogel, Michael Weimer, Sven Werchner, Jochen Förstner, Florian Prill, Daniel Reinert, Günther Zängl, Marco Giorgetta, Roland Ruhnke, Bernhard Vogel, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4043–4068, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4043-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4043-2018, 2018
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In this paper, we introduce the most up-to-date version of the flexible tracer framework for the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model with
Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases (ICON-ART).
We performed multiple simulations using different ICON physics configurations for weather and climate with ART.
The flexible tracer framework within ICON-ART 2.1 suits the demands of a large variety of different applications ranging from numerical weather prediction to climate integrations.
Nathan Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Paul Cresswell, Sam Cusworth, Mohit Dalvi, David Matthews, Steven Wardle, and Stuart Whitehouse
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3647–3657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3647-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3647-2018, 2018
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Using a virtual machine environment, a low-resolution configuration of the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) composition-climate model has been developed. This configuration, while not suitable for long simulations, is an excellent test-bed for new model developments and can be used to train new users in how to use UKCA. This work was motivated by the desire to improve the usability of UKCA, and to encourage more users to become involved with the code development process.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Hauke Schmidt, Rémi Thiéblemont, Lon Hood, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, Daniel R. Marsh, Martine Michou, David Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Yousuke Yamashita, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11323–11343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, 2018
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The 11-year solar cycle is an important driver of climate variability. Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation affect atmospheric ozone, which in turn influences atmospheric temperatures. Constraining the impact of the solar cycle on ozone is therefore important for understanding climate variability. This study examines the representation of the solar influence on ozone in numerical models used to simulate past and future climate. We highlight important differences among model datasets.
Emre Esentürk, Nathan Luke Abraham, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Christina Mitsakou, Paul Griffiths, Alex Archibald, and John Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3089–3108, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3089-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3089-2018, 2018
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An integral and expensive part of coupled climate model simulations is the gas-phase chemistry which gives rise to hundreds of coupled differential equations. We propose a method which improves the convergence and robustness properties of commonly used Newton–Raphson solvers. The method is flexible and can be appended to most algorithms. The approach can be useful for a broader community of computational scientists whose interests lie in solving systems with intensive interactive chemistry.
Farahnaz Khosrawi, Oliver Kirner, Gabriele Stiller, Michael Höpfner, Michelle L. Santee, Sylvia Kellmann, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8873–8892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8873-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8873-2018, 2018
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An extensive assessment of the performance of the chemistry–climate model EMAC is given for Arctic winters 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. The EMAC simulations are compared to satellite observations. The comparisons between EMAC simulations and satellite observations show that model and measurements compare well for these two Arctic winters. However, differences between model and observations are found that need improvements in the model in the future.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
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We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
James Keeble, Hannah Brown, N. Luke Abraham, Neil R. P. Harris, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7625–7637, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7625-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7625-2018, 2018
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2017 marks the 30th anniversary of the Montreal Protocol, which was implemented to protect the stratospheric ozone layer from the harmful effects of synthetic ozone depleting substances. Since the late 1990s atmospheric concentrations of these species have begun to decline, and as a result ozone concentrations are expected to increase. In this study we use an ensemble of chemistry–climate simulations to investigate recent ozone trends and search for early signs of ozone recovery.
Valerio Ferracci, Ines Heimann, N. Luke Abraham, John A. Pyle, and Alexander T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7109–7129, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7109-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7109-2018, 2018
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Hydroxyl radicals (OH) control the removal of species emitted in the atmosphere. Field campaigns reported a "missing" OH sink, not included in current atmospheric models. In this work a global model was used to establish the impact of additional OH sinks, based on both observations of the missing sink and newly discovered reactions of OH. Results show modest increases in global atmospheric lifetimes but pronounced regional effects on the abundance of some key species.
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, Douglas E. Kinnison, Alexandru Rap, Amanda C. Maycock, Oliver Wild, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6121–6139, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6121-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6121-2018, 2018
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This study explores future ozone radiative forcing (RF) and the relative contribution due to different drivers. Climate-induced ozone RF is largely the result of the interplay between lightning-produced ozone and enhanced ozone destruction in a warmer and wetter atmosphere. These results demonstrate the importance of stratospheric–tropospheric interactions and the stratosphere as a key region controlling a large fraction of the tropospheric ozone RF.
Neal Butchart, James A. Anstey, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Charles McLandress, Andrew C. Bushell, Yoshio Kawatani, Young-Ha Kim, Francois Lott, John Scinocca, Timothy N. Stockdale, Martin Andrews, Omar Bellprat, Peter Braesicke, Chiara Cagnazzo, Chih-Chieh Chen, Hye-Yeong Chun, Mikhail Dobrynin, Rolando R. Garcia, Javier Garcia-Serrano, Lesley J. Gray, Laura Holt, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Hiroaki Naoe, Holger Pohlmann, Jadwiga H. Richter, Adam A. Scaife, Verena Schenzinger, Federico Serva, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, Kohei Yoshida, and Seiji Yukimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, 2018
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This paper documents the numerical experiments to be used in phase 1 of the Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi), which was set up to improve the representation of the QBO and tropical stratospheric variability in global climate models.
Antara Banerjee, Amanda C. Maycock, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2899–2911, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2899-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2899-2018, 2018
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This study quantifies the radiative forcing (RF) of future ozone changes. Under climate change, even the sign of the ozone RF can change depending on the greenhouse gas emissions scenario followed. Stratosphere–troposphere exchange plays an important role in driving ozone RF due to reductions in ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and increases in methane abundance. These could negate the ozone-derived climate benefits of air-quality controls on non-methane ozone precursor emissions.
James Keeble, Ewa M. Bednarz, Antara Banerjee, N. Luke Abraham, Neil R. P. Harris, Amanda C. Maycock, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13801–13818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13801-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13801-2017, 2017
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In this study we explore the chemical and transport processes controlling ozone abundances in different altitude regions in the tropics for the present day and how these processes may change in the future in order to determine when total-column ozone values in the tropics will recover to pre-1980s values following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments, which imposed bans on the use and emissions of CFCs.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Farahnaz Khosrawi, Oliver Kirner, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Sören Johansson, Michael Höpfner, Michelle L. Santee, Lucien Froidevaux, Jörn Ungermann, Roland Ruhnke, Wolfgang Woiwode, Hermann Oelhaf, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12893–12910, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12893-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12893-2017, 2017
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The 2015/2016 Arctic winter was one of the coldest winters in recent years, allowing extensive PSC formation and chlorine activation. Model simulations of the 2015/2016 Arctic winter were performed with the atmospheric chemistry–climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC). We find that ozone loss was quite strong but not as strong as in 2010/2011; denitrification and dehydration were so far the strongest observed in the Arctic stratosphere in at least the past 10 years.
Michael Weimer, Jennifer Schröter, Johannes Eckstein, Konrad Deetz, Marco Neumaier, Garlich Fischbeck, Lu Hu, Dylan B. Millet, Daniel Rieger, Heike Vogel, Bernhard Vogel, Thomas Reddmann, Oliver Kirner, Roland Ruhnke, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2471–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2471-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2471-2017, 2017
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In this paper, the recently developed module for trace gas emissions in the online coupled modelling framework ICON-ART for atmospheric chemistry is presented. Algorithms for offline and online calculation of the emissions are described. The module is validated with ground-based as well as airborne measurements of acetone. It is shown that the module performs well and allows the simulation of annual cycles of emission-driven trace gases.
Katja Matthes, Bernd Funke, Monika E. Andersson, Luke Barnard, Jürg Beer, Paul Charbonneau, Mark A. Clilverd, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Margit Haberreiter, Aaron Hendry, Charles H. Jackman, Matthieu Kretzschmar, Tim Kruschke, Markus Kunze, Ulrike Langematz, Daniel R. Marsh, Amanda C. Maycock, Stergios Misios, Craig J. Rodger, Adam A. Scaife, Annika Seppälä, Ming Shangguan, Miriam Sinnhuber, Kleareti Tourpali, Ilya Usoskin, Max van de Kamp, Pekka T. Verronen, and Stefan Versick
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017
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The solar forcing dataset for climate model experiments performed for the upcoming IPCC report is described. This dataset provides the radiative and particle input of solar variability on a daily basis from 1850 through to 2300. With this dataset a better representation of natural climate variability with respect to the output of the Sun is provided which provides the most sophisticated and comprehensive respresentation of solar variability that has been used in climate model simulations so far.
Alison Ming, Amanda C. Maycock, Peter Hitchcock, and Peter Haynes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5677–5701, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5677-2017, 2017
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This work quantifies the contribution of the seasonal changes in ozone and water vapour to the temperature cycle in a region of the atmosphere about ~ 18 km up in the tropics (the lower stratosphere). This region is important because most of the air entering the stratosphere does so through this region and temperature fluctuations there influence how much water vapour enters the stratosphere and hence the properties of the stratosphere.
Johannes Eckstein, Roland Ruhnke, Andreas Zahn, Marco Neumaier, Ole Kirner, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2775–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2775-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2775-2017, 2017
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Data on atmospheric trace gases have been collected with instruments on-board a commercial airliner for more than 10 years in the CARIBIC project. We investigate which species in the dataset can be used for a representative climatology, by comparing data from the chemistry–climate model EMAC along the flight paths to a larger set of model data. We find that long-lived species are captured quite well by the CARIBIC sample while this is not the case for more variable, shorter-lived species.
Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I. Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando R. Garcia, Steven C. Hardiman, Larry W. Horowitz, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Michael E. Manyin, Marion Marchand, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, 2017
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We present a review of the make-up of 20 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). In comparison to earlier such activities, most of these models comprise a whole-atmosphere chemistry, and several of them include an interactive ocean module. This makes them suitable for studying the interactions of tropospheric air quality, stratospheric ozone, and climate. The paper lays the foundation for other studies using the CCMI simulations for scientific analysis.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
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We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Ulrike Langematz, Franziska Schmidt, Markus Kunze, Gregory E. Bodeker, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15619–15627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016, 2016
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The extent of anthropogenically driven Antarctic ozone depletion prior to 1980 is examined using transient chemistry–climate model simulations from 1960 to 2000 with prescribed changes of ozone depleting substances in conjunction with observations. All models show a long-term, halogen-induced negative trend in Antarctic ozone from 1960 to 1980, ranging between 26 and 50 % of the total anthropogenic ozone depletion from 1960 to 2000. A stronger ozone decline of 56 % was estimated from observation.
Mingjin Tang, James Keeble, Paul J. Telford, Francis D. Pope, Peter Braesicke, Paul T. Griffiths, N. Luke Abraham, James McGregor, I. Matt Watson, R. Anthony Cox, John A. Pyle, and Markus Kalberer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15397–15412, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15397-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15397-2016, 2016
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We have investigated for the first time the heterogeneous hydrolysis of ClONO2 on TiO2 and SiO2 aerosol particles at room temperature and at different relative humidities (RHs), using an aerosol flow tube. The kinetic data reported in our current and previous studies have been included in the UKCA chemistry–climate model to assess the impact of TiO2 injection on stratospheric chemistry and stratospheric ozone in particular.
Nicola J. Warwick, Michelle L. Cain, Rebecca Fisher, James L. France, David Lowry, Sylvia E. Michel, Euan G. Nisbet, Bruce H. Vaughn, James W. C. White, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14891–14908, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14891-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14891-2016, 2016
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas. Methane emissions from Arctic wetlands are poorly quantified and may increase in a warming climate. Using a global atmospheric model and atmospheric observations of methane and its isotopologues, we find that isotopologue data are useful in constraining Arctic wetland emissions. Our results suggest that the seasonal cycle of these emissions may be incorrectly simulated in land process models, with implications for our understanding of future emissions.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amanda C. Maycock, N. Luke Abraham, Peter Braesicke, Olivier Dessens, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12159–12176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016, 2016
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Future trends in springtime Arctic ozone, and its chemical dynamical and radiative drivers, are analysed using a 7-member ensemble of chemistry–climate model integrations, allowing for a detailed assessment of interannual variability. Despite the future long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, there is large interannual variability and episodic reductions in springtime Arctic column ozone. Halogen chemistry will become a smaller but non-negligible driver of Arctic ozone variability over the century.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Rémi Thiéblemont, and Lon Hood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10021–10043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10021-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10021-2016, 2016
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The impact of changes in incoming solar radiation on stratospheric ozone has important impacts on the atmosphere. Understanding this ozone response is crucial for constraining how solar activity affects climate. This study analyses the solar ozone response (SOR) in satellite datasets and shows that there are substantial differences in the magnitude and spatial structure across different records. In particular, the SOR in the new SAGE v7.0 mixing ratio data is smaller than in the previous v6.2.
R. Hossaini, P. K. Patra, A. A. Leeson, G. Krysztofiak, N. L. Abraham, S. J. Andrews, A. T. Archibald, J. Aschmann, E. L. Atlas, D. A. Belikov, H. Bönisch, L. J. Carpenter, S. Dhomse, M. Dorf, A. Engel, W. Feng, S. Fuhlbrügge, P. T. Griffiths, N. R. P. Harris, R. Hommel, T. Keber, K. Krüger, S. T. Lennartz, S. Maksyutov, H. Mantle, G. P. Mills, B. Miller, S. A. Montzka, F. Moore, M. A. Navarro, D. E. Oram, K. Pfeilsticker, J. A. Pyle, B. Quack, A. D. Robinson, E. Saikawa, A. Saiz-Lopez, S. Sala, B.-M. Sinnhuber, S. Taguchi, S. Tegtmeier, R. T. Lidster, C. Wilson, and F. Ziska
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9163–9187, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9163-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9163-2016, 2016
Markus Kunze, Peter Braesicke, Ulrike Langematz, and Gabriele Stiller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8695–8714, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8695-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8695-2016, 2016
Khalil Karami, Peter Braesicke, Miriam Sinnhuber, and Stefan Versick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8447–8460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8447-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8447-2016, 2016
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We introduce a diagnostic tool to assess in a climatological framework the optimal propagation conditions for stationary planetary waves. Analyzing 50 winters using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data we demonstrate several problematic features of the refractive index of Rossby waves. We introduced the Rossby waves membership value function to calculate the optimal propagation conditions for Rossby waves. Sensitivity of our diagnostic tool to strong and weak vortex regimes are examined.
Peer Johannes Nowack, Nathan Luke Abraham, Peter Braesicke, and John Adrian Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4191–4203, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4191-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4191-2016, 2016
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Various forms of solar radiation management (SRM) have been proposed to counteract man-made climate change. However, all these countermeasures could have unintended side-effects. We add a novel perspective to this discussion by showing how atmospheric ozone changes under solar geoengineering could affect UV exposure and air pollution. This would have implications for human health and ecology. Atmospheric composition changes are therefore important to consider in the evaluation of any SRM scheme.
Antara Banerjee, Amanda C. Maycock, Alexander T. Archibald, N. Luke Abraham, Paul Telford, Peter Braesicke, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2727–2746, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2727-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2727-2016, 2016
F. Khosrawi, J. Urban, S. Lossow, G. Stiller, K. Weigel, P. Braesicke, M. C. Pitts, A. Rozanov, J. P. Burrows, and D. Murtagh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 101–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-101-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-101-2016, 2016
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Our sensitivity studies based on air parcel trajectories confirm that Polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation is quite sensitive to water vapour and temperature changes. Considering water vapour time series from satellite measurements we do not find a consistent, significant trend in water vapour in the lower stratosphere during the past 15 years (2000–2014). Thus, the severe dentrification observed in 2010/2011 cannot be directly related to increases in stratospheric water vapour.
J. R. Pitt, M. Le Breton, G. Allen, C. J. Percival, M. W. Gallagher, S. J.-B. Bauguitte, S. J. O'Shea, J. B. A. Muller, M. S. Zahniser, J. Pyle, and P. I. Palmer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-63-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-63-2016, 2016
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We present details of an Aerodyne quantum cascade laser absorption spectrometer (QCLAS) used to make airborne measurements of N2O and CH4, including its configuration for use on board an aircraft. Two different methods to correct for the influence of water vapour on the measurements are evaluated. We diagnose a sensitivity of the instrument to changes in pressure, introduce a new calibration procedure to account for this effect, and assess its performance.
M. R. Russo, M. J. Ashfold, N. R. P. Harris, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 14031–14040, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-14031-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-14031-2015, 2015
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We find a strong regional element to the uplift of CHBr3 from the ocean to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The strongest uplift occurs when the largest emission and the most intense convection are co-located which is over the Maritime Continent in northern winter. Estimates of CHBr3 emissions based on aircraft measurements will be sensitive to where the available aircraft campaigns took place.
K. Karami, P. Braesicke, M. Kunze, U. Langematz, M. Sinnhuber, and S. Versick
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33283-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33283-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
N. R. P. Harris, B. Hassler, F. Tummon, G. E. Bodeker, D. Hubert, I. Petropavlovskikh, W. Steinbrecht, J. Anderson, P. K. Bhartia, C. D. Boone, A. Bourassa, S. M. Davis, D. Degenstein, A. Delcloo, S. M. Frith, L. Froidevaux, S. Godin-Beekmann, N. Jones, M. J. Kurylo, E. Kyrölä, M. Laine, S. T. Leblanc, J.-C. Lambert, B. Liley, E. Mahieu, A. Maycock, M. de Mazière, A. Parrish, R. Querel, K. H. Rosenlof, C. Roth, C. Sioris, J. Staehelin, R. S. Stolarski, R. Stübi, J. Tamminen, C. Vigouroux, K. A. Walker, H. J. Wang, J. Wild, and J. M. Zawodny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9965–9982, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9965-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9965-2015, 2015
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Trends in the vertical distribution of ozone are reported for new and recently revised data sets. The amount of ozone-depleting compounds in the stratosphere peaked in the second half of the 1990s. We examine the trends before and after that peak to see if any change in trend is discernible. The previously reported decreases are confirmed. Furthermore, the downward trend in upper stratospheric ozone has not continued. The possible significance of any increase is discussed in detail.
J. G. Levine, A. R. MacKenzie, O. J. Squire, A. T. Archibald, P. T. Griffiths, N. L. Abraham, J. A. Pyle, D. E. Oram, G. Forster, J. F. Brito, J. D. Lee, J. R. Hopkins, A. C. Lewis, S. J. B. Bauguitte, C. F. Demarco, P. Artaxo, P. Messina, J. Lathière, D. A. Hauglustaine, E. House, C. N. Hewitt, and E. Nemitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-24251-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-24251-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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This study explores our ability to simulate atmospheric chemistry stemming from isoprene emissions—a reactive gas emitted from vegetation—in pristine and polluted regions of the Amazon basin. We explore how two contrasting models fare in reproducing recent airborne measurements in the region. Their differing treatments of transport and mixing are found to: profoundly affect their performance; and yield very different pictures of the exposure of the rainforest to harmful ozone concentrations.
H. M. Walker, D. Stone, T. Ingham, S. Vaughan, M. Cain, R. L. Jones, O. J. Kennedy, M. McLeod, B. Ouyang, J. Pyle, S. Bauguitte, B. Bandy, G. Forster, M. J. Evans, J. F. Hamilton, J. R. Hopkins, J. D. Lee, A. C. Lewis, R. T. Lidster, S. Punjabi, W. T. Morgan, and D. E. Heard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8179–8200, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8179-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8179-2015, 2015
O. J. Squire, A. T. Archibald, P. T. Griffiths, M. E. Jenkin, D. Smith, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5123–5143, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5123-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5123-2015, 2015
M. J. Ashfold, J. A. Pyle, A. D. Robinson, E. Meneguz, M. S. M. Nadzir, S. M. Phang, A. A. Samah, S. Ong, H. E. Ung, L. K. Peng, S. E. Yong, and N. R. P. Harris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3565–3573, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3565-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3565-2015, 2015
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We use observations and model calculations to show that "cold surges" occurring during Northern Hemisphere winter can rapidly transport East Asian pollution to equatorial Southeast Asia. As well as affecting atmospheric composition near the surface, we argue that strong convection can subsequently lift the polluted air masses to the tropical upper troposphere. This suggests a potentially important connection between midlatitude pollution sources and the lower stratosphere.
A. Orr, J. S. Hosking, L. Hoffmann, J. Keeble, S. M. Dean, H. K. Roscoe, N. L. Abraham, S. Vosper, and P. Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1071–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1071-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1071-2015, 2015
J. Keeble, P. Braesicke, N. L. Abraham, H. K. Roscoe, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13705–13717, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13705-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13705-2014, 2014
S. J. O'Shea, G. Allen, M. W. Gallagher, K. Bower, S. M. Illingworth, J. B. A. Muller, B. T. Jones, C. J. Percival, S. J-B. Bauguitte, M. Cain, N. Warwick, A. Quiquet, U. Skiba, J. Drewer, K. Dinsmore, E. G. Nisbet, D. Lowry, R. E. Fisher, J. L. France, M. Aurela, A. Lohila, G. Hayman, C. George, D. B. Clark, A. J. Manning, A. D. Friend, and J. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13159–13174, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13159-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13159-2014, 2014
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This paper presents airborne measurements of greenhouse gases collected in the European Arctic. Regional scale flux estimates for the northern Scandinavian wetlands are derived. These fluxes are found to be in excellent agreement with coincident surface measurements within the aircraft's sampling domain. This has allowed a significant low bias to be identified in two commonly used process-based land surface models.
S. S. Dhomse, K. M. Emmerson, G. W. Mann, N. Bellouin, K. S. Carslaw, M. P. Chipperfield, R. Hommel, N. L. Abraham, P. Telford, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, C. E. Johnson, F. O'Connor, O. Morgenstern, J. A. Pyle, T. Deshler, J. M. Zawodny, and L. W. Thomason
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11221–11246, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, 2014
X. Yang, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, P. Braesicke, J. Keeble, P. J. Telford, N. J. Warwick, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10431–10438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10431-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10431-2014, 2014
A. Banerjee, A. T. Archibald, A. C. Maycock, P. Telford, N. L. Abraham, X. Yang, P. Braesicke, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9871–9881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9871-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9871-2014, 2014
M. S. Mohd Nadzir, S. M. Phang, M. R. Abas, N. Abdul Rahman, A. Abu Samah, W. T. Sturges, D. E. Oram, G. P. Mills, Emma C. Leedham Elvidge, J. A. Pyle, N. R. P. Harris, A. D. Robinson, M. J. Ashfold, M. I. Mead, M. T. Latif, M. F. Khan, A. M. Amiruddin, N. Banan, and M. M. Hanafiah
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8137–8148, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8137-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8137-2014, 2014
M. J. Tang, P. J. Telford, F. D. Pope, L. Rkiouak, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, P. Braesicke, J. A. Pyle, J. McGregor, I. M. Watson, R. A. Cox, and M. Kalberer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6035–6048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6035-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6035-2014, 2014
O. J. Squire, A. T. Archibald, N. L. Abraham, D. J. Beerling, C. N. Hewitt, J. Lathière, R. C. Pike, P. J. Telford, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1011–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1011-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1011-2014, 2014
F. M. O'Connor, C. E. Johnson, O. Morgenstern, N. L. Abraham, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, G. A. Folberth, M. G. Sanderson, P. J. Telford, A. Voulgarakis, P. J. Young, G. Zeng, W. J. Collins, and J. A. Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 41–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, 2014
Z. S. Stock, M. R. Russo, T. M. Butler, A. T. Archibald, M. G. Lawrence, P. J. Telford, N. L. Abraham, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 12215–12231, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12215-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12215-2013, 2013
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
P. Braesicke, J. Keeble, X. Yang, G. Stiller, S. Kellmann, N. L. Abraham, A. Archibald, P. Telford, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10677–10688, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10677-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10677-2013, 2013
N. J. Warwick, A. T. Archibald, K. Ashworth, J. Dorsey, P. M. Edwards, D. E. Heard, B. Langford, J. Lee, P. K. Misztal, L. K. Whalley, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9183–9194, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9183-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9183-2013, 2013
P. J. Telford, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, O. Morgenstern, F. M. O'Connor, N. A. D. Richards, and J. A. Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 161–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-161-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-161-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Analytical approximation of the definite Chapman integral for arbitrary zenith angles
Moist bias in the Pacific upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) in climate models affects regional circulation patterns
Evaluation of vertical transport in ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalysis using high-altitude aircraft measurements in the Asian summer monsoon 2017
Injection strategy – a driver of atmospheric circulation and ozone response to stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Quantifying stratospheric ozone trends over 1984–2020: a comparison of ordinary and regularized multivariate regression models
Surface ozone over the Tibetan Plateau controlled by stratospheric intrusion
The role of tropical upwelling in explaining discrepancies between recent modeled and observed lower-stratospheric ozone trends
The roles of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño for entry stratospheric water vapor in observations and coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models
Improved estimation of volcanic SO2 injections from satellite retrievals and Lagrangian transport simulations: the 2019 Raikoke eruption
Hemispheric asymmetries in recent changes in the stratospheric circulation
A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future
The 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption – Part 1: Dispersion model simulations and satellite retrievals of volcanic sulfur dioxide
The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation inferred from age of air in the ERA5 reanalysis
Simulations of anthropogenic bromoform indicate high emissions at the coast of East Asia
Sensitivity of stratospheric water vapour to variability in tropical tropopause temperatures and large-scale transport
Technical note: Lowermost-stratosphere moist bias in ECMWF IFS model diagnosed from airborne GLORIA observations during winter–spring 2016
The response of stratospheric water vapor to climate change driven by different forcing agents
Influence of convection on stratospheric water vapor in the North American monsoon region
Electricity savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions from global phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons
Impact of convectively lofted ice on the seasonal cycle of water vapor in the tropical tropopause layer
Transport of trace gases via eddy shedding from the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone and associated impacts on ozone heating rates
Detectability of the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases upon stratospheric ozone accounting for nonlinearities in historical forcings
Multi-decadal records of stratospheric composition and their relationship to stratospheric circulation change
Brominated VSLS and their influence on ozone under a changing climate
Contribution of different processes to changes in tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in chemistry–climate models
Quantifying pollution transport from the Asian monsoon anticyclone into the lower stratosphere
A new time-independent formulation of fractional release
The millennium water vapour drop in chemistry–climate model simulations
Impact of major volcanic eruptions on stratospheric water vapour
Variability of water vapour in the Arctic stratosphere
On the hiatus in the acceleration of tropical upwelling since the beginning of the 21st century
Trends in peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over southern Asia during the summer monsoon season: regional impacts
Spatial regression analysis on 32 years of total column ozone data
Ozone seasonality above the tropical tropopause: reconciling the Eulerian and Lagrangian perspectives of transport processes
Modeling upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric water vapor anomalies
Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September–December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century
Assessment of the interannual variability and influence of the QBO and upwelling on tracer–tracer distributions of N2O and O3 in the tropical lower stratosphere
OCS photolytic isotope effects from first principles: sulfur and carbon isotopes, temperature dependence and implications for the stratosphere
On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes – Part 2: The effects of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, volcanic eruptions and contributions of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry to long-term total ozone changes
Relationships between Brewer-Dobson circulation, double tropopauses, ozone and stratospheric water vapour
Simulation of stratospheric water vapor and trends using three reanalyses
Climatological perspectives of air transport from atmospheric boundary layer to tropopause layer over Asian monsoon regions during boreal summer inferred from Lagrangian approach
Solar response in tropical stratospheric ozone: a 3-D chemical transport model study using ERA reanalyses
Geomagnetic activity related NOx enhancements and polar surface air temperature variability in a chemistry climate model: modulation of the NAM index
Forecasts and assimilation experiments of the Antarctic ozone hole 2008
Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa – Part 2: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes
Technical Note: Trend estimation from irregularly sampled, correlated data
Modeling the transport of very short-lived substances into the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere
Dongxiao Yue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5093–5097, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5093-2024, 2024
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The stunning colors of the sky and clouds result from light scattering in the atmosphere, whose density changes with height. Previously, calculating these colors involves costly, sometimes inaccurate methods. This paper presents a silver bullet: a single elegant formula that simplifies these complex calculations. What is the result? We have faster, more precise predictions of atmospheric colors, from Earth's blue skies and red sunsets to Venus's golden hues.
Felix Ploeger, Thomas Birner, Edward Charlesworth, Paul Konopka, and Rolf Müller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2033–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2033-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2033-2024, 2024
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We present a novel mechanism of how regional anomalies in water vapour concentrations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere impact regional atmospheric circulation systems. These impacts include a displaced upper-level Asian monsoon circulation and strengthened prevailing westerlies in the Pacific region. Current climate models have biases in simulating these regional water vapour anomalies and circulation impacts, but the biases can be avoided by improving the model transport.
Bärbel Vogel, C. Michael Volk, Johannes Wintel, Valentin Lauther, Jan Clemens, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Gebhard Günther, Lars Hoffmann, Johannes C. Laube, Rolf Müller, Felix Ploeger, and Fred Stroh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 317–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-317-2024, 2024
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Over the Indian subcontinent, polluted air is rapidly uplifted to higher altitudes during the Asian monsoon season. We present an assessment of vertical transport in this region using different wind data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), as well as high-resolution aircraft measurements. In general, our findings confirm that the newest ECMWF reanalysis product, ERA5, yields a better representation of transport compared to the predecessor, ERA-Interim.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Daniele Visioni, Yan Zhang, Ben Kravitz, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13665–13684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, 2023
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We use a state-of-the-art Earth system model and a set of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies to achieve the same level of global mean surface cooling through different combinations of location and/or timing of the injection. We demonstrate that the choice of SAI strategy can lead to contrasting impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, circulation, and chemistry (including stratospheric ozone), thereby leading to different impacts on regional surface climate.
Yajuan Li, Sandip S. Dhomse, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Jianchun Bian, Yuan Xia, and Dong Guo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13029–13047, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13029-2023, 2023
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For the first time a regularized multivariate regression model is used to estimate stratospheric ozone trends. Regularized regression avoids the over-fitting issue due to correlation among explanatory variables. We demonstrate that there are considerable differences in satellite-based and chemical-model-based ozone trends, highlighting large uncertainties in our understanding about ozone variability. We argue that caution is needed when interpreting results with different methods and datasets.
Xiufeng Yin, Dipesh Rupakheti, Guoshuai Zhang, Jiali Luo, Shichang Kang, Benjamin de Foy, Junhua Yang, Zhenming Ji, Zhiyuan Cong, Maheswar Rupakheti, Ping Li, Yuling Hu, and Qianggong Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10137–10143, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10137-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10137-2023, 2023
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The monthly mean surface ozone concentrations peaked earlier in the south in April and May and later in the north in June and July over the Tibetan Plateau. The migration of monthly surface ozone peaks was coupled with the synchronous movement of tropopause folds and the westerly jet that created conditions conducive to stratospheric ozone intrusion. Stratospheric ozone intrusion significantly contributed to surface ozone across the Tibetan Plateau.
Sean M. Davis, Nicholas Davis, Robert W. Portmann, Eric Ray, and Karen Rosenlof
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3347–3361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3347-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3347-2023, 2023
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Ozone in the lower part of the stratosphere has not increased and has perhaps even continued to decline in recent decades. This study demonstrates that the amount of ozone in this region is highly sensitive to the amount of air upwelling into the stratosphere in the tropics and that simulations from a climate model nudged to historical meteorological fields often fail to accurately capture the variations in tropical upwelling that control short-term trends in lower-stratospheric ozone.
Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Sean Davis, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7523–7538, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, 2022
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Stratospheric water vapor is important for Earth's overall greenhouse effect and for ozone chemistry; however the factors governing its variability on interannual timescales are not fully known, and previous modeling studies have indicated that models struggle to capture this interannual variability. We demonstrate that nonlinear interactions are important for determining overall water vapor concentrations and also that models have improved in their ability to capture these connections.
Zhongyin Cai, Sabine Griessbach, and Lars Hoffmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6787–6809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6787-2022, 2022
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Using AIRS and TROPOMI sulfur dioxide retrievals and the Lagrangian transport model MPTRAC, we present an improved reconstruction of injection parameters of the 2019 Raikoke eruption. Reconstructions agree well between using AIRS nighttime and TROPOMI daytime retrievals, showing the potential of our approach to create a long-term volcanic sulfur dioxide inventory from nearly 20 years of AIRS retrievals.
Felix Ploeger and Hella Garny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5559–5576, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5559-2022, 2022
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We investigate hemispheric asymmetries in stratospheric circulation changes in the last 2 decades in model simulations and atmospheric observations. We find that observed trace gas changes can be explained by a structural circulation change related to a deepening circulation in the Northern Hemisphere relative to the Southern Hemisphere. As this asymmetric signal is small compared to internal variability observed circulation trends over the recent past are not in contradiction to climate models.
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Alessio Bozzo, Nicholas Byrne, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Michail Diamantakis, Johannes Flemming, Lesley J. Gray, Robin J. Hogan, Luke Jones, Linus Magnusson, Inna Polichtchouk, Theodore G. Shepherd, Nils Wedi, and Antje Weisheimer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4277–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, 2022
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The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different timescales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high-resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
Johannes de Leeuw, Anja Schmidt, Claire S. Witham, Nicolas Theys, Isabelle A. Taylor, Roy G. Grainger, Richard J. Pope, Jim Haywood, Martin Osborne, and Nina I. Kristiansen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10851–10879, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10851-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10851-2021, 2021
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Using the NAME dispersion model in combination with high-resolution SO2 satellite data from TROPOMI, we investigate the dispersion of volcanic SO2 from the 2019 Raikoke eruption. NAME accurately simulates the dispersion of SO2 during the first 2–3 weeks after the eruption and illustrates the potential of using high-resolution satellite data to identify potential limitations in dispersion models, which will ultimately help to improve efforts to forecast the dispersion of volcanic clouds.
Felix Ploeger, Mohamadou Diallo, Edward Charlesworth, Paul Konopka, Bernard Legras, Johannes C. Laube, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Gebhard Günther, Andreas Engel, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8393–8412, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8393-2021, 2021
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We investigate the global stratospheric circulation (Brewer–Dobson circulation) in the new ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis based on age of air simulations, and we compare it to results from the preceding ERA-Interim reanalysis. Our results show a slower stratospheric circulation and higher age for ERA5. The age of air trend in ERA5 over the 1989–2018 period is negative throughout the stratosphere, related to multi-annual variability and a potential contribution from changes in the reanalysis system.
Josefine Maas, Susann Tegtmeier, Yue Jia, Birgit Quack, Jonathan V. Durgadoo, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4103–4121, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4103-2021, 2021
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Cooling-water disinfection at coastal power plants is a known source of atmospheric bromoform. A large source of anthropogenic bromoform is the industrial regions in East Asia. In current bottom-up flux estimates, these anthropogenic emissions are missing, underestimating the global air–sea flux of bromoform. With transport simulations, we show that by including anthropogenic bromoform from cooling-water treatment, the bottom-up flux estimates significantly improve in East and Southeast Asia.
Jacob W. Smith, Peter H. Haynes, Amanda C. Maycock, Neal Butchart, and Andrew C. Bushell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2469–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021, 2021
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This paper informs realistic simulation of stratospheric water vapour by clearly attributing each of the two key influences on water vapour entry to the stratosphere. Presenting modified trajectory models, the results of this paper show temperatures dominate on annual and inter-annual variations; however, transport has a significant effect in reducing the annual cycle maximum. Furthermore, sub-seasonal variations in temperature have an important overall influence.
Wolfgang Woiwode, Andreas Dörnbrack, Inna Polichtchouk, Sören Johansson, Ben Harvey, Michael Höpfner, Jörn Ungermann, and Felix Friedl-Vallon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15379–15387, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15379-2020, 2020
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The lowermost-stratosphere moist bias in ECMWF analyses and 12 h forecasts is diagnosed for the Arctic winter-spring 2016 period by using two-dimensional GLORIA water vapor observations. The bias is already present in the initial conditions (i.e., the analyses), and sensitivity forecasts on time scales of < 12 h show hardly any sensitivity to modified spatial resolution and output frequency.
Xun Wang and Andrew E. Dessler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13267–13282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13267-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13267-2020, 2020
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We investigate the response of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) to different forcing agents, including greenhouse gases and aerosols. For most forcing agents, the SWV response is dominated by a slow response, which is coupled to surface temperature changes and exhibits a similar sensitivity to the surface temperature across all forcing agents. The fast SWV adjustment due to forcing is important when the forcing agent directly heats the cold-point region, e.g., black carbon.
Wandi Yu, Andrew E. Dessler, Mijeong Park, and Eric J. Jensen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12153–12161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12153-2020, 2020
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The stratospheric water vapor mixing ratio over North America (NA) region is up to ~ 1 ppmv higher when deep convection occurs. We find substantial consistency in the interannual variations of NA water vapor anomaly and deep convection and explain both the summer seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the convective moistening efficiency. We show that the NA anticyclone and tropical upper tropospheric temperature determine how much deep convection moistens the lower stratosphere.
Pallav Purohit, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, John Dulac, Nihar Shah, Max Wei, Peter Rafaj, and Wolfgang Schöpp
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11305–11327, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11305-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11305-2020, 2020
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This study shows that if energy efficiency improvements in cooling technologies are addressed simultaneously with a phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), not only will global warming be mitigated through the elimination of HFCs but also by saving about a fifth of future global electricity consumption. This means preventing between 411 and 631 Pg CO2 equivalent of greenhouse gases between today and 2100, thereby offering a significant contribution towards staying well below 2 °C warming.
Xun Wang, Andrew E. Dessler, Mark R. Schoeberl, Wandi Yu, and Tao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14621–14636, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14621-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14621-2019, 2019
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We use a trajectory model to diagnose mechanisms that produce the observed and modeled tropical lower stratospheric water vapor seasonal cycle. We confirm that the seasonal cycle of water vapor is primarily determined by the seasonal cycle of tropical tropopause layer (TTL) temperatures. However, between 10° N and 40° N, we find that evaporation of convective ice in the TTL plays a key role contributing to the water vapor seasonal cycle there. The Asian monsoon region is the most important region.
Suvarna Fadnavis, Chaitri Roy, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Christopher E. Sioris, Alexandru Rap, Rolf Müller, K. Ravi Kumar, and Raghavan Krishnan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11493–11506, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11493-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11493-2018, 2018
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Rapid industrialization, traffic growth and urbanization resulted in a significant increase in the tropospheric trace gases over Asia. There is global concern about rising levels of these trace gases. The monsoon convection transports these gases to the upper-level-anticyclone. In this study, we show transport of these gases to the extratropics via eddy-shedding from the anticyclone. We also deliberate on changes in ozone heating rates due to the transport of Asian trace gases.
Justin Bandoro, Susan Solomon, Benjamin D. Santer, Douglas E. Kinnison, and Michael J. Mills
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 143–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-143-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-143-2018, 2018
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We studied the attribution of stratospheric ozone changes and identified similarities between observations and human fingerprints from both emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs). We developed an improvement on the traditional pattern correlation method that accounts for nonlinearities in the climate forcing time evolution. Use of the latter resulted in increased S / N ratios for the ODS fingerprint. The GHG fingerprint was not identifiable.
Anne R. Douglass, Susan E. Strahan, Luke D. Oman, and Richard S. Stolarski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12081–12096, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12081-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12081-2017, 2017
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Data records from instruments on satellites and on the ground are compared with a simulation for 1980–2016 that is made using winds and temperatures that are derived from measurements. The simulation tracks the observations faithfully after about 2000, but there are systematic errors for earlier years. Scientists must take this into account when trying to detect and quantify changes in the stratospheric circulation that are caused by climate change.
Stefanie Falk, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Gisèle Krysztofiak, Patrick Jöckel, Phoebe Graf, and Sinikka T. Lennartz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11313–11329, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11313-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11313-2017, 2017
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Brominated very short-lived source gases (VSLS) contribute significantly to the tropospheric and stratospheric bromine loading. We find an increase of future ocean–atmosphere flux of brominated VSLS of 8–10 % compared to present day. A decrease in the tropospheric mixing ratios of VSLS and an increase in the lower stratosphere are attributed to changes in atmospheric chemistry and transport. Bromine impact on stratospheric ozone at the end of the 21st century is reduced compared to present day.
Kevin M. Smalley, Andrew E. Dessler, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, David A. Plummer, Kiyotaka Shibata, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8031–8044, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017, 2017
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This paper explains a new way to evaluate simulated lower-stratospheric water vapor. We use a multivariate linear regression to predict 21st century lower stratospheric water vapor within 12 chemistry climate models using tropospheric warming, the Brewer–Dobson circulation, and the quasi-biennial oscillation as predictors. This methodology produce strong fits to simulated water vapor, and potentially represents a superior method to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric water vapor.
Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Kaley Walker, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7055–7066, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7055-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7055-2017, 2017
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Pollution transport from the surface to the stratosphere within the Asian summer monsoon circulation may cause harmful effects on stratospheric chemistry and climate. We investigate air mass transport from the monsoon anticyclone into the stratosphere, combining model simulations with satellite trace gas measurements. We show evidence for two transport pathways from the monsoon: (i) into the tropical stratosphere and (ii) into the Northern Hemisphere extratropical lower stratosphere.
Jennifer Ostermöller, Harald Bönisch, Patrick Jöckel, and Andreas Engel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3785–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3785-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3785-2017, 2017
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We analysed the temporal evolution of fractional release factors (FRFs) from EMAC model simulations for several halocarbons and nitrous oxide. The current formulation of FRFs yields values that depend on the tropospheric trend of the species. This is a problematic issue for the application of FRF in the calculation of steady-state quantities (e.g. ODP). Including a loss term in the calculation, we develop a new formulation of FRF and find that the time dependence can almost be compensated.
Sabine Brinkop, Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, Hella Garny, Stefan Lossow, and Gabriele Stiller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8125–8140, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8125-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8125-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the water vapour decline in the stratosphere beginning in the year 2000 and other similarly strong stratospheric water vapour reductions. The driving forces are tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes due to coincidence with a preceding ENSO event and supported by the west to east change of the QBO.
There are indications that both SSTs and the specific dynamical state of the atmosphere contribute to the long period of low water vapour values from 2001 to 2006.
Michael Löffler, Sabine Brinkop, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6547–6562, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6547-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6547-2016, 2016
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After the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on the Philippines in 1991, stratospheric water vapour is significantly increased. This results from increased stratospheric heating rates due to volcanic aerosol and the subsequent changes in stratospheric and tropopause temperatures in the tropics. The tropical vertical advection and the South Asian summer monsoon are identified as important sources for the additional water vapour in the stratosphere.
Laura Thölix, Leif Backman, Rigel Kivi, and Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4307–4321, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4307-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4307-2016, 2016
J. Aschmann, J. P. Burrows, C. Gebhardt, A. Rozanov, R. Hommel, M. Weber, and A. M. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12803–12814, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12803-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12803-2014, 2014
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This study compares observations and simulation results of ozone in the lower tropical stratosphere. It shows that ozone in this region decreased from 1985 up to about 2002, which is consistent with an increase in tropical upwelling predicted by climate models. However, the decrease effectively stops after 2002, indicating that significant changes in tropical upwelling have occurred. The most important factor appears to be that the vertical ascent in the tropics is no longer accelerating.
S. Fadnavis, M. G. Schultz, K. Semeniuk, A. S. Mahajan, L. Pozzoli, S. Sonbawne, S. D. Ghude, M. Kiefer, and E. Eckert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12725–12743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12725-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12725-2014, 2014
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The Asian summer monsoon transports pollutants from local emission sources to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The increasing trend of these pollutants may have climatic impact. This study addresses the impact of convectively lifted Indian and Chinese emissions on the ULTS. Sensitivity experiments with emission changes in particular regions show that Chinese emissions have a greater impact on the concentrations of NOY species than Indian emissions.
J. S. Knibbe, R. J. van der A, and A. T. J. de Laat
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8461–8482, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8461-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8461-2014, 2014
M. Abalos, F. Ploeger, P. Konopka, W. J. Randel, and E. Serrano
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10787–10794, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10787-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10787-2013, 2013
M. R. Schoeberl, A. E. Dessler, and T. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7783–7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7783-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7783-2013, 2013
J. M. Siddaway, S. V. Petelina, D. J. Karoly, A. R. Klekociuk, and R. J. Dargaville
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4413–4427, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4413-2013, 2013
F. Khosrawi, R. Müller, J. Urban, M. H. Proffitt, G. Stiller, M. Kiefer, S. Lossow, D. Kinnison, F. Olschewski, M. Riese, and D. Murtagh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3619–3641, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3619-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3619-2013, 2013
J. A. Schmidt, M. S. Johnson, S. Hattori, N. Yoshida, S. Nanbu, and R. Schinke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1511–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1511-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1511-2013, 2013
H. E. Rieder, L. Frossard, M. Ribatet, J. Staehelin, J. A. Maeder, S. Di Rocco, A. C. Davison, T. Peter, P. Weihs, and F. Holawe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 165–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-165-2013, 2013
J. M. Castanheira, T. R. Peevey, C. A. F. Marques, and M. A. Olsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 10195–10208, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-10195-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-10195-2012, 2012
M. R. Schoeberl, A. E. Dessler, and T. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 6475–6487, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-6475-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-6475-2012, 2012
B. Chen, X. D. Xu, S. Yang, and T. L. Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 5827–5839, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-5827-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-5827-2012, 2012
S. Dhomse, M. P. Chipperfield, W. Feng, and J. D. Haigh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 12773–12786, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-12773-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-12773-2011, 2011
A. J. G. Baumgaertner, A. Seppälä, P. Jöckel, and M. A. Clilverd
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4521–4531, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4521-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4521-2011, 2011
J. Flemming, A. Inness, L. Jones, H. J. Eskes, V. Huijnen, M. G. Schultz, O. Stein, D. Cariolle, D. Kinnison, and G. Brasseur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1961–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1961-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1961-2011, 2011
H. E. Rieder, J. Staehelin, J. A. Maeder, T. Peter, M. Ribatet, A. C. Davison, R. Stübi, P. Weihs, and F. Holawe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 10033–10045, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-10033-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-10033-2010, 2010
T. von Clarmann, G. Stiller, U. Grabowski, E. Eckert, and J. Orphal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 6737–6747, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-6737-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-6737-2010, 2010
J. Aschmann, B.-M. Sinnhuber, E. L. Atlas, and S. M. Schauffler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 9237–9247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-9237-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-9237-2009, 2009
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Short summary
Following model improvements, the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing simulated in the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model is discussed for the first time. In contrast to most previous studies in the literature, we compare the results diagnosed using both a composite and a MLR methodology, and we show that apparently different signals can be diagnosed in the troposphere. In addition, we look at the role of internal atmospheric variability for the detection of the solar response.
Following model improvements, the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing...
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