Articles | Volume 21, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11889-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11889-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Aug 2021
Research article |
| 10 Aug 2021
| 10 Aug 2021
The effect of forced change and unforced variability in heat waves, temperature extremes, and associated population risk in a CO2-warmed world
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A & M University, College
Station, TX, USA
Jeffrey C. Mast
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A & M University, College
Station, TX, USA
Andrew E. Dessler
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A & M University, College
Station, TX, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Xun Wang and Andrew E. Dessler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13267–13282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13267-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13267-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the response of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) to different forcing agents, including greenhouse gases and aerosols. For most forcing agents, the SWV response is dominated by a slow response, which is coupled to surface temperature changes and exhibits a similar sensitivity to the surface temperature across all forcing agents. The fast SWV adjustment due to forcing is important when the forcing agent directly heats the cold-point region, e.g., black carbon.
Wandi Yu, Andrew E. Dessler, Mijeong Park, and Eric J. Jensen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12153–12161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12153-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The stratospheric water vapor mixing ratio over North America (NA) region is up to ~ 1 ppmv higher when deep convection occurs. We find substantial consistency in the interannual variations of NA water vapor anomaly and deep convection and explain both the summer seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the convective moistening efficiency. We show that the NA anticyclone and tropical upper tropospheric temperature determine how much deep convection moistens the lower stratosphere.
Xun Wang, Andrew E. Dessler, Mark R. Schoeberl, Wandi Yu, and Tao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14621–14636, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14621-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14621-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We use a trajectory model to diagnose mechanisms that produce the observed and modeled tropical lower stratospheric water vapor seasonal cycle. We confirm that the seasonal cycle of water vapor is primarily determined by the seasonal cycle of tropical tropopause layer (TTL) temperatures. However, between 10° N and 40° N, we find that evaporation of convective ice in the TTL plays a key role contributing to the water vapor seasonal cycle there. The Asian monsoon region is the most important region.
Andrew E. Dessler, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5147–5155, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most important parameters in climate science is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Estimates of this quantity based on 20th-century observations suggest low values of ECS (below 2 °C). We show that these calculations may be significantly in error. Together with other recent work on this problem, it seems probable that the ECS is larger than suggested by the 20th-century observations.
Hao Ye, Andrew E. Dessler, and Wandi Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4425–4437, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4425-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4425-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The deep convection in tropics can inject cloud ice into tropical tropopause layer (TTL), which moistens and increases water vapor there. We primarily study the spatial distribution of impacts from several physical processes on TTL water vapor from observations and trajectory model simulations. The analysis shows the potential moistening impact from evaporation of cloud ice on TTL water vapor. A chemistry–climate model is used to confirm the impact from evaporation of convective ice.
Kevin M. Smalley, Andrew E. Dessler, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, David A. Plummer, Kiyotaka Shibata, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8031–8044, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explains a new way to evaluate simulated lower-stratospheric water vapor. We use a multivariate linear regression to predict 21st century lower stratospheric water vapor within 12 chemistry climate models using tropospheric warming, the Brewer–Dobson circulation, and the quasi-biennial oscillation as predictors. This methodology produce strong fits to simulated water vapor, and potentially represents a superior method to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric water vapor.
T. Wang, A. E. Dessler, M. R. Schoeberl, W. J. Randel, and J.-E. Kim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3517–3526, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3517-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3517-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the impacts of vertical temperature structures on trajectory simulations of stratospheric dehydration and water vapor by using 1) MERRA temperatures on model levels; 2) GPS temperatures at finer vertical resolutions; and 3) adjusted MERRA temperatures with finer vertical structures induced by waves. We show that despite the fact that temperatures at finer vertical structures tend to dry air by 0.1-0.3ppmv, the interannual variability in different runs is essentially the same.
T. Wang, W. J. Randel, A. E. Dessler, M. R. Schoeberl, and D. E. Kinnison
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7135–7147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7135-2014, 2014
M. R. Schoeberl, A. E. Dessler, and T. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7783–7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7783-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7783-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Meteorological modeling sensitivity to parameterizations and satellite-derived surface datasets during the 2017 Lake Michigan Ozone Study
Trajectory enhancement of low-earth orbiter thermodynamic retrievals to predict convection: a simulation experiment
Lagrangian transport simulations using the extreme convection parameterization: an assessment for the ECMWF reanalyses
Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates
Determination of the chemical equator from GEOS-Chem model simulation: a focus on the tropical western Pacific region
Uncertainty in parameterized convection remains a key obstacle for estimating surface fluxes of carbon dioxide
Antarctic atmospheric Richardson number from radiosonde measurements and AMPS
Divergent convective outflow in large-eddy simulations
Using synthetic case studies to explore the spread and calibration of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts
Modulation of daily PM2.5 concentrations over China in winter by large-scale circulation and climate change
Modeling of street-scale pollutant dispersion by coupled simulation of chemical reaction, aerosol dynamics, and CFD
Daytime along-valley winds in the Himalayas as simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Evolution of squall line variability and error growth in an ensemble of large eddy simulations
Climatology and variability of air mass transport from the boundary layer to the Asian monsoon anticyclone
Evaluation and bias correction of probabilistic volcanic ash forecasts
The representation of the trade winds in ECMWF forecasts and reanalyses during EUREC4A
Modeling approaches for atmospheric ion–dipole collisions: all-atom trajectory simulations and central field methods
Parameterizing the aerodynamic effect of trees in street canyons for the street network model MUNICH using the CFD model Code_Saturne
Quantifying the impact of meteorological uncertainty on emission estimates and the risk to aviation using source inversion for the Raikoke 2019 eruption
Acceleration of the southern African easterly jet driven by the radiative effect of biomass burning aerosols and its impact on transport during AEROCLO-sA
The Sun's role in decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic
Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble
Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019
Ship-based estimates of momentum transfer coefficient over sea ice and recommendations for its parameterization
Revising the definition of anthropogenic heat flux from buildings: role of human activities and building storage heat flux
An assessment of tropopause characteristics of the ERA5 and ERA-Interim meteorological reanalyses
Distinct evolutions of haze pollution from winter to the following spring over the North China Plain: role of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies
The foehn effect during easterly flow over Svalbard
Effect of rainfall-induced diabatic heating over southern China on the formation of wintertime haze on the North China Plain
Anthropogenic aerosol effects on tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (1980–2020): separating the role of zonally asymmetric forcings
Lightning-ignited wildfires and long continuing current lightning in the Mediterranean Basin: preferential meteorological conditions
Identifying source regions of air masses sampled at the tropical high-altitude site of Chacaltaya using WRF-FLEXPART and cluster analysis
Modelling spatiotemporal variations of the canopy layer urban heat island in Beijing at the neighbourhood scale
Dispersion of particulate matter (PM2.5) from wood combustion for residential heating: optimization of mitigation actions based on large-eddy simulations
Measurement report: Effect of wind shear on PM10 concentration vertical structure in the urban boundary layer in a complex terrain
Convective self–aggregation in a mean flow
The potential for geostationary remote sensing of NO2 to improve weather prediction
Robust winter warming over Eurasia under stratospheric sulfate geoengineering – the role of stratospheric dynamics
Parameterizing the vertical downward dispersion of ship exhaust gas in the near field
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the associated mechanisms in CMIP6 models
Sensitivities of the Madden–Julian oscillation forecasts to configurations of physics in the ECMWF global model
Sensitivity of modeled Indian monsoon to Chinese and Indian aerosol emissions
The spring transition of the North Pacific jet and its relation to deep stratosphere-to-troposphere mass transport over western North America
Very long-period oscillations in the atmosphere (0–110 km)
Identification of molecular cluster evaporation rates, cluster formation enthalpies and entropies by Monte Carlo method
The “urban meteorology island”: a multi-model ensemble analysis
Validation of reanalysis Southern Ocean atmosphere trends using sea ice data
Revisiting the trend in the occurrences of the “warm Arctic–cold Eurasian continent” temperature pattern
A microphysics guide to cirrus – Part 2: Climatologies of clouds and humidity from observations
Ceilometers as planetary boundary layer height detectors and a corrective tool for COSMO and IFS models
Jason A. Otkin, Lee M. Cronce, Jonathan L. Case, R. Bradley Pierce, Monica Harkey, Allen Lenzen, David S. Henderson, Zac Adelman, Tsengel Nergui, and Christopher R. Hain
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7935–7954, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7935-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7935-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We performed model simulations to assess the impact of different parameterization schemes, surface initialization datasets, and analysis nudging on lower-tropospheric conditions near Lake Michigan. Simulations were run with high-resolution, real-time datasets depicting lake surface temperatures, green vegetation fraction, and soil moisture. The most accurate results were obtained when using high-resolution sea surface temperature and soil datasets to constrain the model simulations.
Mark T. Richardson, Brian H. Kahn, and Peter Kalmus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7699–7717, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection over land often triggers hours after a satellite last passed overhead and measured the state of the atmosphere, and during those hours the atmosphere can change greatly. Here we show that it is possible to reconstruct most of those changes by using weather forecast winds to predict where warm and moist air parcels will travel. The results can be used to better predict where precipitation is likely to happen in the hours after satellite measurements.
Lars Hoffmann, Paul Konopka, Jan Clemens, and Bärbel Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7589–7609, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7589-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7589-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric convection plays a key role in tracer transport in the troposphere. Global meteorological forecasts and reanalyses typically have a coarse spatiotemporal resolution that does not adequately resolve the dynamics, transport, and mixing of air associated with storm systems or deep convection. We discuss the application of the extreme convection parameterization in a Lagrangian transport model to improve simulations of tracer transport from the boundary layer into the free troposphere.
Angshuman Modak and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7535–7549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an improved estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) constrained based on the instrumental temperature record including the corrections for the pattern effect. The improved estimate factors in the uncertainty caused by the underlying sea-surface temperature datasets used in the estimates of pattern effect. This together with the inter-model spread lifts the corresponding IPCC AR6 estimate to 3.2 K [1.8 to 11.0], which is lower and better constrained than in past studies.
Xiaoyu Sun, Mathias Palm, Katrin Müller, Jonas Hachmeister, and Justus Notholt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7075–7090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7075-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The tropical western Pacific (TWP) is an active interhemispheric transport region contributing significantly to the global climate. A method to determine the chemical equator was developed by model simulations of a virtual passive tracer to analyze transport in the tropics, with a focus on the TWP region. We compare the chemical equator with tropical rain belts and wind fields and obtain a vertical pattern of interhemispheric transport processes which shows tilt structure in certain seasons.
Andrew E. Schuh and Andrew R. Jacobson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6285–6297, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6285-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6285-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A comparison of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations resulting from two different atmospheric transport models showed large differences in predicted concentrations with significant space–time correlations. The vertical mixing of long-lived trace gases by convection was determined to be the main driver of these differences. The resulting uncertainty was deemed significant to the application of using atmospheric gradients of carbon dioxide to estimate surface fluxes of carbon dioxide.
Qike Yang, Xiaoqing Wu, Xiaodan Hu, Zhiyuan Wang, Chun Qing, Tao Luo, Pengfei Wu, Xianmei Qian, and Yiming Guo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6339–6355, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6339-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6339-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The AMPS-forecasted Richardson number was first comprehensively validated over the Antarctic continent. Some potential underlying reasons for the discrepancies between the forecasts and observations were analyzed. The underlying physical processes of triggering atmospheric turbulence in Antarctica were investigated. Our results suggest that the estimated Richardson number by the AMPS is reasonable and the turbulence conditions in Antarctica are well revealed.
Edward Groot and Holger Tost
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6065–6081, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is shown that the outflow from cumulonimbus clouds or thunderstorms in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in idealized high-resolution simulations (LESs) depends linearly on the net amount of latent heat released by the cloud for fixed geometry of the clouds. However, it is shown that, in more realistic situations, convective organization and aggregation (collecting mechanisms of cumulonimbus clouds) affect the amount of outflow non-linearly through non-idealized geometry.
Andrew Richard Jones, Susan J. Leadbetter, and Matthew C. Hort
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-628, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-628, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper explores spread and calibration properties of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts for hypothetical release events. Real-time forecasts from an ensemble weather prediction system were used to generate an ensemble of dispersion predictions and assessed against simulations produced using analysis meteorology. Results demonstrate good performance overall, but highlight more skilful predictions for material released in the upper air compared with releases near to the surface.
Zixuan Jia, Carlos Ordóñez, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Steven T. Turnock, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2829–2842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the influence of the winter large-scale circulation on daily concentrations of PM2.5 and their sensitivity to emissions. The new proposed circulation index can effectively distinguish different levels of air pollution and explain changes in PM2.5 sensitivity to emissions from local and surrounding regions. We then project future changes in PM2.5 concentrations using this index and find an increase in PM2.5 concentrations over the region due to climate change.
Chao Lin, Yunyi Wang, Ryozo Ooka, Cédric Flageul, Youngseob Kim, Hideki Kikumoto, Zhizhao Wang, and Karine Sartelet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1421–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1421-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1421-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, SSH-aerosol, a modular box model that simulates the evolution of gas, primary, and secondary aerosols, is coupled with the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software, OpenFOAM and Code_Saturne. The transient dispersion of pollutants emitted from traffic in a street canyon of Greater Paris is simulated. The coupled model achieved better agreement in NO2 and PM10 with measurement data than the conventional CFD simulation which regards pollutants as passive scalars.
Johannes Mikkola, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marja Bister, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 821–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Local winds in four valleys located in the Nepal Himalayas are studied by means of high-resolution meteorological modelling. Well-defined daytime up-valley winds are simulated in all of the valleys with some variation in the flow depth and strength among the valleys and their parts. Parts of the valleys with a steep valley floor inclination (2–5°) are associated with weaker and shallower daytime up-valley winds compared with the parts that have nearly flat valley floors (< 1°).
Edward Groot and Holger Tost
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 565–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-565-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Thunderstorm systems play an important role in the dynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere, and some of them form a well-organised line: squall lines. Simulations of such squall lines with very small initial perturbations are compared to a reference simulation. The evolution of perturbations and processes amplifying them are analysed. It is shown that the formation of new secondary thunderstorm cells (after the initial primary cells) directly ahead of the line affects the spread strongly.
Matthias Nützel, Sabine Brinkop, Martin Dameris, Hella Garny, Patrick Jöckel, Laura L. Pan, and Mijeong Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15659–15683, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15659-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
During the Asian summer monsoon season, a large high-pressure system is present at levels close to the tropopause above Asia. We analyse how air masses are transported from surface levels to this high-pressure system, which shows distinct features from the surrounding air masses. To this end, we employ multiannual data from two complementary models that allow us to analyse the climatology as well as the interannual and intraseasonal variability of these transport pathways.
Alice Crawford, Tianfeng Chai, Binyu Wang, Allison Ring, Barbara Stunder, Christopher P. Loughner, Michael Pavolonis, and Justin Sieglaff
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13967–13996, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13967-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes the development of a workflow which produces probabilistic and quantitative forecasts of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. The workflow includes methods of incorporating satellite observations of the ash cloud into a modeling framework as well as verification statistics that can be used to guide further model development and provide information for risk-based approaches to flight planning.
Alessandro Carlo Maria Savazzi, Louise Nuijens, Irina Sandu, Geet George, and Peter Bechtold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13049–13066, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13049-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13049-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Winds are of great importance for the transport of energy and moisture in the atmosphere. In this study we use measurements from the EUREC4A field campaign and several model experiments to understand the wind bias in the forecasts produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We are able to link the model errors to heights above 2 km and to the representation of the diurnal cycle of winds: the model makes the winds too slow in the morning and too strong in the evening.
Ivo Neefjes, Roope Halonen, Hanna Vehkamäki, and Bernhard Reischl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11155–11172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11155-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Collisions between ionic and dipolar molecules and clusters facilitate the formation of atmospheric aerosol particles, which affect global climate and air quality. We compared often-used classical approaches for calculating ion–dipole collision rates with robust atomistic computer simulations. While classical approaches work for simple ions and dipoles only, our modeling approach can also efficiently calculate reasonable collision properties for more complex systems.
Alice Maison, Cédric Flageul, Bertrand Carissimo, Yunyi Wang, Andrée Tuzet, and Karine Sartelet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9369–9388, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9369-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9369-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a parameterization of the tree crown effect on air flow and pollutant dispersion in a street network model used to simulate air quality at the street level. The new parameterization is built using a finer-scale model (computational fluid dynamics). The tree effect increases with the leaf area index and the crown volume fraction of the trees; the street horizontal velocity is reduced by up to 68 % and the vertical transfer into or out of the street by up to 23 %.
Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Cameron Saint, Andrew T. Prata, Helen N. Webster, and Roy G. Grainger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8529–8545, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8529-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8529-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the event of a volcanic eruption, airlines need to make decisions about which routes are safe to operate and ensure that airborne aircraft land safely. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of a statistical technique that best combines ash information from satellites and a suite of computer forecasts of ash concentration to provide a range of plausible estimates of how much volcanic ash emitted from a volcano is available to undergo long-range transport.
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Laurent Labbouz, Cyrille Flamant, and Alma Hodzic
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8639–8658, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8639-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ground-based, spaceborne and rare airborne observations of biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) during the AEROCLO-sA field campaign in 2017 are complemented with convection-permitting simulations with online trajectories. The results show that the radiative effect of the BBA accelerates the southern African easterly jet and generates upward motions that transport the BBAs to higher altitudes and farther southwest.
Annika Drews, Wenjuan Huo, Katja Matthes, Kunihiko Kodera, and Tim Kruschke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7893–7904, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar irradiance varies with a period of approximately 11 years. Using a unique large chemistry–climate model dataset, we investigate the solar surface signal in the North Atlantic and European region and find that it changes over time, depending on the strength of the solar cycle. For the first time, we estimate the potential predictability associated with including realistic solar forcing in a model. These results may improve seasonal to decadal predictions of European climate.
Shipra Jain, Ruth M. Doherty, David Sexton, Steven Turnock, Chaofan Li, Zixuan Jia, Zongbo Shi, and Lin Pei
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7443–7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a range of future projections of winter haze and clear conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using multiple simulations from a climate model for the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). The frequency of haze conducive weather is likely to increase whereas the frequency of clear weather is likely to decrease in future. The total number of hazy days for a given winter can be as much as ˜3.5 times higher than the number of clear days over the NCP.
Antonio Capponi, Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Keith Beven, Cameron Saint, Cathie Wells, and Mike R. James
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6115–6134, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are hampered by uncertainties in parameters describing the characteristics of volcanic plumes. Uncertainty quantification is vital for making robust flight-planning decisions. We present a method using satellite data to refine a series of volcanic ash dispersion forecasts and quantify these uncertainties. We show how we can improve forecast accuracy and potentially reduce the regions of high risk of volcanic ash relevant to aviation.
Piyush Srivastava, Ian M. Brooks, John Prytherch, Dominic J. Salisbury, Andrew D. Elvidge, Ian A. Renfrew, and Margaret J. Yelland
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4763–4778, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4763-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4763-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The parameterization of surface turbulent fluxes over sea ice remains a weak point in weather forecast and climate models. Recent theoretical developments have introduced more extensive physics but these descriptions are poorly constrained due to a lack of observation data. Here we utilize a large dataset of measurements of turbulent fluxes over sea ice to tune the state-of-the-art parameterization of wind stress, and compare it with a previous scheme.
Yiqing Liu, Zhiwen Luo, and Sue Grimmond
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4721–4735, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4721-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic heat emission from buildings is important for atmospheric modelling in cities. The current building anthropogenic heat flux is simplified by building energy consumption. Our research proposes a novel approach to determine ‘real’ building anthropogenic heat emission from the changes in energy balance fluxes between occupied and unoccupied buildings. We hope to provide new insights into future parameterisations of building anthropogenic heat flux in urban climate models.
Lars Hoffmann and Reinhold Spang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4019–4046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4019-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present an intercomparison of 2009–2018 lapse rate tropopause characteristics as derived from ECMWF's ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Large-scale features are similar, but ERA5 shows notably larger variability, which we mainly attribute to UTLS temperature fluctuations due to gravity waves being better resolved by ECMWF's IFS forecast model. Following evaluation with radiosondes and GPS data, we conclude ERA5 will be a more suitable asset for tropopause-related studies in future work.
Linye Song, Shangfeng Chen, Wen Chen, Jianping Guo, Conglan Cheng, and Yong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1669–1688, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1669-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1669-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that in most years when haze pollution (HP) over the North China Plain (NCP) is more (less) serious in winter, air conditions in the following spring are also worse (better) than normal. Conversely, there are some years when HP in the following spring is opposed to that in winter. It is found that North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies play important roles in HP evolution over the NCP. Thus North Atlantic SST is an important preceding signal for NCP HP evolution.
Anna A. Shestakova, Dmitry G. Chechin, Christof Lüpkes, Jörg Hartmann, and Marion Maturilli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1529–1548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1529-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1529-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the easterly orographic wind episode which occurred over Svalbard on 30–31 May 2017. This wind caused a significant temperature rise on the lee side of the mountains and greatly intensified the snowmelt. This episode was investigated on the basis of measurements collected during the ACLOUD/PASCAL field campaigns with the help of numerical modeling.
Xiadong An, Lifang Sheng, Chun Li, Wen Chen, Yulian Tang, and Jingliang Huangfu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 725–738, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-725-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The North China Plain (NCP) suffered many periods of haze in winter during 1985–2015, related to the rainfall-induced diabatic heating over southern China. The haze over the NCP is modulated by an anomalous anticyclone caused by the Rossby wave and a north–south circulation (NSC) induced mainly by diabatic heating. As a Rossby wave source, rainfall-induced diabatic heating supports waves and finally strengthens the anticyclone over the NCP. These changes favor haze over the NCP.
Chenrui Diao, Yangyang Xu, and Shang-Ping Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18499–18518, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18499-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18499-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emission has shown a zonal redistribution since the 1980s, with a decline in the Western Hemisphere (WH) high latitudes and an increase in the Eastern Hemisphere (EH) low latitudes. This study compares the role of zonally asymmetric forcings affecting the climate. The WH aerosol reduction dominates the poleward shift of the Hadley cell and the North Pacific warming, while the EH AA forcing is largely confined to the emission domain and induces local cooling responses.
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Heidi Huntrieser, Sergio Soler, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Nicolau Pineda, Javier Navarro-González, Víctor Reglero, Joan Montanyà, Oscar van der Velde, and Nikos Koutsias
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17529–17557, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17529-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning-ignited fires tend to occur in remote areas and can spread significantly before suppression. Long continuing current (LCC) lightning, preferably taking place in dry thunderstorms, is believed to be the main precursor of lightning-ignited fires. We analyze fire databases of lightning-ignited fires in the Mediterranean basin and report the shared meteorological conditions of fire- and LCC-lightning-producing thunderstorms. These results can be useful to improve fire forecasting methods.
Diego Aliaga, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marcos Andrade, Paulo Artaxo, Samara Carbone, Evgeny Kadantsev, Paolo Laj, Alfred Wiedensohler, Radovan Krejci, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16453–16477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16453-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the origin of air masses sampled at Mount Chacaltaya, Bolivia. Three-quarters of the measured air has not been influenced by the surface in the previous 4 d. However, it is rare that, at any given time, the sampled air has not been influenced at all by the surface, and often the sampled air has multiple origins. The influence of the surface is more prevalent during day than night. Furthermore, during the 6-month study, one-third of the air masses originated from Amazonia.
Michael Biggart, Jenny Stocker, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, David Carruthers, Sue Grimmond, Yiqun Han, Pingqing Fu, and Simone Kotthaus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13687–13711, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13687-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13687-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Heat-related illnesses are of increasing concern in China given its rapid urbanisation and our ever-warming climate. We examine the relative impacts that land surface properties and anthropogenic heat have on the urban heat island (UHI) in Beijing using ADMS-Urban. Air temperature measurements and satellite-derived land surface temperatures provide valuable means of evaluating modelled spatiotemporal variations. This work provides critical information for urban planners and UHI mitigation.
Tobias Wolf, Lasse H. Pettersson, and Igor Esau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12463–12477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12463-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12463-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
House heating by wood-burning stoves is cozy and needed in boreal cities, e.g., Bergen, Norway. But smoke (aerosols) from stoves may reduce urban air quality. It can be transported over long distance excessively polluting some neighborhoods. Who will suffer the most? Our modelling study looks at urban pollution in unprecedented meter-sized details tracing smoke pathways and turbulent dispersion in a typical city. We prototype effective policy scenarios to mitigate urban air quality problems.
Piotr Sekuła, Anita Bokwa, Jakub Bartyzel, Bogdan Bochenek, Łukasz Chmura, Michał Gałkowski, and Mirosław Zimnoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12113–12139, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12113-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The wind shear generated on a local scale by the diversified relief’s impact can be a factor which significantly modifies the spatial pattern of PM10 concentration. The vertical profile of PM10 over a city located in a large valley during the events with high surface-level PM10 concentrations may show a sudden decrease with height not only due to the increase in wind speed, but also due to the change in wind direction alone. Vertical aerosanitary urban zones can be distinguished.
Hyunju Jung, Ann Kristin Naumann, and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10337–10345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10337-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10337-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the behavior of organized convection in a large-scale flow by imposing a mean flow to idealized simulations. In the mean flow, organized convection initially propagates slower than the mean wind speed and becomes stationary. The initial upstream and downstream difference in surface fluxes becomes symmetric as the surface momentum flux acts as a drag, resulting in the stationarity. Meanwhile, the surface enthalpy flux has a minor role in the propagation of the convection.
Xueling Liu, Arthur P. Mizzi, Jeffrey L. Anderson, Inez Fung, and Ronald C. Cohen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9573–9583, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9573-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9573-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Observations of winds in the planetary boundary layer remain sparse, making it challenging to simulate and predict the atmospheric conditions that are most important for describing and predicting urban air quality. Here we investigate the application of data assimilation of NO2 columns as will be observed from geostationary orbit to improve predictions and retrospective analysis of wind fields in the boundary layer.
Antara Banerjee, Amy H. Butler, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Alan Robock, Isla R. Simpson, and Lantao Sun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6985–6997, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We find that simulated stratospheric sulfate geoengineering could lead to warmer Eurasian winters alongside a drier Mediterranean and wetting to the north. These effects occur due to the strengthening of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, which shifts the North Atlantic Oscillation to a more positive phase. We find the effects in our simulations to be much more significant than the wintertime effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions which inject much less sulfate aerosol.
Ronny Badeke, Volker Matthias, and David Grawe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5935–5951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5935-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5935-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to describe the physical distribution of ship exhaust gases in the near field, e.g., inside of a harbor. Results were calculated with a mathematical model for different meteorological and technical conditions. It has been shown that large vessels like cruise ships have a significant effect of up to 55 % downward movement of exhaust gas, as they can disturb the ground near wind circulation. This needs to be considered in urban air pollution studies.
Taufiq Hassan, Robert J. Allen, Wei Liu, and Cynthia A. Randles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5821–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5821-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5821-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
State-of-the-art climate models yield robust, externally forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the bulk of which are due to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations to net surface shortwave radiation and sea surface temperature. AMOC-related feedbacks act to reinforce this aerosol-forced response, largely due to changes in sea surface salinity (and hence sea surface density), with temperature- and cloud-related feedbacks acting to mute the initial response.
Jun-Ichi Yano and Nils P. Wedi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4759–4778, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sensitivities of forecasts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) to various different configurations of the physics are examined with the global model of ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The motivation for the study was to simulate the MJO as a nonlinear free wave. To emulate free dynamics in the IFS,
various momentum dissipation terms (
friction) as well as diabatic heating were selectively turned off over the tropics for the range of the latitudes from 20° S to 20° N.
Peter Sherman, Meng Gao, Shaojie Song, Alex T. Archibald, Nathan Luke Abraham, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew Shindell, Gregory Faluvegi, and Michael B. McElroy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3593–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3593-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3593-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The aims here are to assess the role of aerosols in India's monsoon precipitation and to determine the relative contributions from Chinese and Indian emissions using CMIP6 models. We find that increased sulfur emissions reduce precipitation, which is primarily dynamically driven due to spatial shifts in convection over the region. A significant increase in precipitation (up to ~ 20 %) is found only when both Indian and Chinese sulfate emissions are regulated.
Melissa L. Breeden, Amy H. Butler, John R. Albers, Michael Sprenger, and Andrew O'Neil Langford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2781–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2781-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Prior research has found a maximum in deep stratosphere-to-troposphere mass/ozone transport over the western United States in boreal spring, which can enhance surface ozone concentrations, reducing air quality. We find that the winter-to-summer evolution of the north Pacific jet increases the frequency of stratospheric intrusions that drive transport, helping explain the observed maximum. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation affects the timing of the spring jet transition and therefore transport.
Dirk Offermann, Christoph Kalicinsky, Ralf Koppmann, and Johannes Wintel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1593–1611, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1593-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1593-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric oscillations with periods of up to several 100 years exist at altitudes up to 110 km. They are also seen in computer models (GCMs) of the atmospheric. They are often attributed to external influences from the sun, from the oceans, or from atmospheric constituents. This is difficult to verify as the atmosphere cannot be manipulated in an experiment. However, a GCM can be changed arbitrarily. Doing so, we find that long-period oscillations may be excited internally in the atmosphere.
Anna Shcherbacheva, Tracey Balehowsky, Jakub Kubečka, Tinja Olenius, Tapio Helin, Heikki Haario, Marko Laine, Theo Kurtén, and Hanna Vehkamäki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15867–15906, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15867-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric new particle formation and cluster growth to aerosol particles is an important field of research, in particular due to the climate change phenomenon. Evaporation rates are very difficult to account for but they are important to explain the formation and growth of particles. Different quantum chemistry (QC) methods produce substantially different values for the evaporation rates. We propose a novel approach for inferring evaporation rates of clusters from available measurements.
Jan Karlický, Peter Huszár, Tereza Nováková, Michal Belda, Filip Švábik, Jana Ďoubalová, and Tomáš Halenka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15061–15077, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15061-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Cities are characterized by their impact on various meteorological variables. Our study aims to generalize these modifications into a single phenomenon – the urban meteorology island (UMI). A wide ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM) simulations investigated urban-induced modifications as individual UMI components. Significant changes are found in most of the discussed meteorological variables with a strong impact of specific model simulations.
William R. Hobbs, Andrew R. Klekociuk, and Yuhang Pan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14757–14768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14757-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14757-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Reanalysis products are an invaluable tool for representing variability and long-term trends in regions with limited in situ data. However, validation of these products is difficult because of that lack of station data. Here we present a novel assessment of eight reanalyses over the polar Southern Ocean, leveraging the close relationship between trends in sea ice cover and surface air temperature, that provides clear guidance on the most reliable product for Antarctic research.
Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, Cuijuan Sui, and Bo Sun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13753–13770, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The recent increasing trend of "warm Arctic, cold continents" has attracted much attention, but it remains debatable as to what forces are behind this phenomenon. Sea surface temperature (SST) over the central North Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans influences the trend. On an interdecadal timescale, the recent increase in the occurrences of the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern is a fragment of the interdecadal variability of SST over the Atlantic Ocean and over the central Pacific Ocean.
Martina Krämer, Christian Rolf, Nicole Spelten, Armin Afchine, David Fahey, Eric Jensen, Sergey Khaykin, Thomas Kuhn, Paul Lawson, Alexey Lykov, Laura L. Pan, Martin Riese, Andrew Rollins, Fred Stroh, Troy Thornberry, Veronika Wolf, Sarah Woods, Peter Spichtinger, Johannes Quaas, and Odran Sourdeval
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12569–12608, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12569-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12569-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the representations of cirrus clouds in climate predictions, extended knowledge of their properties and geographical distribution is required. This study presents extensive airborne in situ and satellite remote sensing climatologies of cirrus and humidity, which serve as a guide to cirrus clouds. Further, exemplary radiative characteristics of cirrus types and also in situ observations of tropical tropopause layer cirrus and humidity in the Asian monsoon anticyclone are shown.
Leenes Uzan, Smadar Egert, Pavel Khain, Yoav Levi, Elyakom Vadislavsky, and Pinhas Alpert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12177–12192, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12177-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12177-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Detection of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is crucial to various fields, from air pollution assessment to weather prediction. We examined the diurnal summer PBL height by eight ceilometers in Israel, radiosonde profiles, the global IFS, and regional COSMO models. Our analysis utilized the bulk Richardson number method, the parcel method, and the wavelet covariance transform method. A novel correction tool to improve model results against in-situ ceilometer measurements is introduced.
Cited articles
Arbuthnott, K., Hajat, S., Heaviside, C., and Vardoulakis, S.: Changes in
population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: assessing adaptation to climate change, Environ. Health, 15, 73–93, 2016.
Argaud, L., Ferry, T., Le, Q. H., Marfisi, A., Ciorba, D., Achache, P., Ducluzeau, R., and Robert, D.: Short- and long-term outcomes of heatstroke
following the 2003 heat wave in Lyon, France, Arch. Intern. Med., 167, 2177–2183, https://doi.org/10.1001/archinte.167.20.ioi70147, 2007.
Baldwin, J. W., Dessy, J. B., Vecchi, G. A., and Oppenheimer, M.: Temporally
Compound Heat Wave Events and Global Warming: An Emerging Hazard, Earths
Future, 7, 411–427, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ef000989, 2019.
Berrisford, P., Dee, D., Poli, P., Brugge, R., Fielding, K., Fuentes, M., and Simmons, A.: The ERA-Interim archive Version 2.0, Shinfield Park, Reading, available at: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim, last access: October 2018.
Birk, K., Lupo, A. R., Guinan, P., and Barbieri, C.: The interannual variability of midwestern temperatures and precipitation as related to the
ENSO and PDO, Atmosfera, 23, 95–128, 2010.
Bonan, G. B., Oleson, K. W., Vertenstein, M., Levis, S., Zeng, X., Dai, Y.,
Dickinson, R. E., and Yang, Z.-L.: The land surface climatology of the Community Land Model coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model, J. Climate, 15, 3123–3149, 2002.
Buzan, J. R. and Huber, M.: Moist heat stress on a hotter Earth, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 48, 623–655, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060100, 2020.
Buzan, J. R., Oleson, K., and Huber, M.: Implementation and comparison of a suite of heat stress metrics within the Community Land Model version 4.5, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 151–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-151-2015, 2015.
Chen, R. D. and Lu, R. Y.: Dry Tropical Nights and Wet Extreme Heat in Beijing: Atypical Configurations between High Temperature and Humidity, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 1792–1802, https://doi.org/10.1175/Mwr-D-13-00289.1, 2014.
Chow, W. T., Chuang, W.-C., and Gober, P.: Vulnerability to extreme heat in
metropolitan Phoenix: spatial, temporal, and demographic dimensions, Profess. Geogr., 64, 286–302, 2012.
CIESIN – Center for International Earth Science Information Network: Columbia University Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11, NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), [data set], https://doi.org/10.7927/H49C6VHW, 2020.
Dahl, K., Licker, R., Abatzoglou, J. T., and Declet-Barreto, J.: Increased
frequency of and population exposure to extreme heat index days in the United States during the 21st century, Environ. Res. Commun., 1, 075002, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab27cf, 2019.
Davies-Jones, R.: An efficient and accurate method for computing the wet-bulb temperature along pseudoadiabats, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 2764–2785, 2008.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N.,
Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S.
B., Hersbach, H., Holm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kallberg, P., Kohler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park,
B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thepaut, J. N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data
assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
de Lima, C. Z., Buzan, J. R., Moore, F. C., Baldos, U. L. C., Huber, M., and
Hertel, T. W.: Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts
of climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 044020, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abeb9f, 2021.
De Rosa, M., Bianco, V., Scarpa, F., and Tagliafico, L. A.: Heating and cooling building energy demand evaluation; a simplified model and a modified
degree days approach, Appl. Energy, 128, 217–229, 2014.
Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H. Y.: Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability, Clim. Dynam., 38, 527–546, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x, 2012.
Deser, C., Trenberth, K., and National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds.): The Climate Data Guide: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): Definition and Indices, available at: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo-definition-and-indices (last access: March 2020), 2016.
Dibike, Y. B. and Coulibaly, P.: Temporal neural networks for downscaling
climate variability and extremes, Neural Networks, 19, 135–144,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neunet.2006.01.003, 2006.
Dickinson, R. E., Oleson, K. W., Bonan, G., Hoffman, F., Thornton, P., Vertenstein, M., Yang, Z.-L., and Zeng, X.: The Community Land Model and its
climate statistics as a component of the Community Climate System Model, J. Climate, 19, 2302–2324, 2006.
Diffenbaugh, N. S. and Burke, M.: Global warming has increased global economic inequality, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 9808–9813, 2019.
Fischer, E. M. and Schär, C.: Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves, Nat. Geosci., 3, 398–403, 2010.
Harrington, L. J., Frame, D. J., Fischer, E. M., Hawkins, E., Joshi, M., and
Jones, C. D.: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence
of daily temperature extremes, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 055007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007, 2016.
Harrington, L. J., Frame, D., King, A. D., and Otto, F. E.: How uneven are
changes to impact-relevant climate hazards in a 1.5 ∘C world and
beyond?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 6672–6680, 2018.
Hausfather, Z., and Peters, G. P.: Emissions–the `business as usual'story
is misleading. Nature Publishing Group, 2020.
Heo, S., Bell, M. L., and Lee, J. T.: Comparison of health risks by heat wave definition: Applicability of wet-bulb globe temperature for heat wave criteria, Environ. Res., 168, 158–170, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2018.09.032, 2019.
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jacob, D., Bindi, M., Brown, S., Camilloni, I., Diedhiou, A., Djalante, R., Ebi, K., Engelbrecht, F., and Guiot, J.: Impacts of 1.5 ∘C global warming on natural and human systems, Global warming of 1.5 ∘C, An IPCC Special Report, IPCC, Switzerland, 2018.
Kang, S. and Eltahir, E. A. B.: North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation, Nat. Commun., 9, 2894,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05252-y, 2018.
Kay, J. E., Deser, C., Phillips, A., Mai, A., Hannay, C., Strand, G., Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S. C., Danabasoglu, G., Edwards, J., Holland, M.,
Kushner, P., Lamarque, J. F., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Middleton, A., Munoz, E., Neale, R., Oleson, K., Polvani, L., and Vertenstein, M.: The
Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate
Variability, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1333–1349, https://doi.org/10.1175/Bams-D-13-00255.1, 2015.
Kharin, V. V., Flato, G. M., Zhang, X., Gillett, N. P., Zwiers, F., and Anderson, K. J.: Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5 degrees C to 2.0 degrees C Depending on Rarity, Earths Future, 6, 704–715, https://doi.org/10.1002/2018ef000813, 2018.
King, A. D. and Harrington, L. J.: The inequality of climate change from
1.5 to 2 ∘C of global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 5030–5033,
2018.
Kummu, M., Taka, M., and Guillaume, J. H. A.: Data from: Gridded global datasets for Gross Domestic Product and Human Development Index over
1990–2015 Dryad, [dataset], https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.dk1j0, 2019.
Lelieveld, J., Hadjinicolaou, P., Kostopoulou, E., Chenoweth, J., El Maayar,
M., Giannakopoulos, C., Hannides, C., Lange, M. A., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E., and Xoplaki, E.: Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, Climatic Change, 114, 667–687, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4, 2012.
Liang, C., Zheng, G., Zhu, N., Tian, Z., Lu, S., and Chen, Y.: A new environmental heat stress index for indoor hot and humid environments based
on Cox regression, Build. Environ., 46, 2472–2479, 2011.
Likas, A., Vlassis, N., and Verbeek, J. J.: The global k-means clustering
algorithm, Pattern Recognit., 36, 451–461, 2003.
Liu, Z., Anderson, B., Yan, K., Dong, W., Liao, H., and Shi, P.: Global and
regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change, Scient. Rep., 7, 1–9, 2017.
Luber, G., and McGeehin, M.: Climate change and extreme heat events, Am. J. Prevent. Med., 35, 429–435, 2008.
Lundgren, K., Kuklane, K., Gao, C., and Holmer, I.: Effects of heat stress on working populations when facing climate change, Indust. Health, 51, 3–15, 2013.
Maher, N., Milinski, S., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Botzet, M., Dobrynin, M., Kornblueh, L., Kroger, J., Takano, Y., Ghosh, R., Hedemann, C., Li, C., Li,
H. M., Manzini, E., Notz, D., Putrasahan, D., Boysen, L., Claussen, M., Ilyina, T., Olonscheck, D., Raddatz, T., Stevens, B., and Marotzke, J.: The
Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate
System Variability, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 2050–2069, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ms001639, 2019.
Mann, M. E., Steinman, B. A., Brouillette, D. J., and Miller, S. K.: Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing, Science, 371, 1014–1019, 2021.
Marcotullio, P. J., Keßler, C., and Fekete, B. M.: The future urban
heat-wave challenge in Africa: Exploratory analysis, Global Environ. Change, 66, 102190, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102190, 2021.
Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D., Skea, J.,
Shukla, P. R., Pirani, A., Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., and Pidcock, R.:
Global warming of 1.5 ∘C, in: An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 2018.
Meehl, G. A., Tebaldi, C., Teng, H., and Peterson, T. C.: Current and future
US weather extremes and El Niño, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L20704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031027, 2007.
Melillo, J. M., Richmond, T., and Yohe, G. W.: Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, US Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, https://doi.org/10.7930/J0Z31WJ2, 2014.
Mora, C., Dousset, B., Caldwell, I. R., Powell, F. E., Geronimo, R. C., Bielecki, C. R., Counsell, C. W., Dietrich, B. S., Johnston, E. T., Louis, L. V., Lucas, M. P., McKenzie, M. M., Shea, A. G., Tseng, H., Giambelluca, T., Leon, L. R., Hawkins, E., and Trauernicht, C.: Global risk of deadly heat, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 501–506, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate3322, 2017.
Morris, C. E., Gonzales, R. G., Hodgson, M. J., and Tustin, A. W.: Actual and simulated weather data to evaluate wet bulb globe temperature and heat index as alerts for occupational heat-related illness, J. Occupat. Environ. Hyg., 16, 54–65, https://doi.org/10.1080/15459624.2018.1532574, 2019.
Murata, A., Nakano, M., Kanada, S., Kurihara, K., and Sasaki, H.: Summertime
temperature extremes over Japan in the late 21st century projected by a
high-resolution regional climate model, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 90, 101–122, 2012.
North, G. R.: Empirical orthogonal functions and normal modes, J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 879–887, 1984.
Parkes, B., Cronin, J., Dessens, O., and Sultan, B.: Climate change in Africa: costs of mitigating heat stress, Climatic Change, 154, 461–476, 2019.
Patz, J. A., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Holloway, T., and Foley, J. A.: Impact of
regional climate change on human health, Nature, 438, 310–317, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04188, 2005.
Perkins, S., Alexander, L., and Nairn, J.: Increasing frequency, intensity
and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20714, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053361, 2012.
Quinn, A., Tamerius, J. D., Perzanowski, M., Jacobson, J. S., Goldstein, I.,
Acosta, L., and Shaman, J.: Predicting indoor heat exposure risk during extreme heat events, Sci. Total Environ., 490, 686–693, 2014.
Ruddell, D. M., Harlan, S. L., Grossman-Clarke, S., and Buyantuyev, A.: Risk
and exposure to extreme heat in microclimates of Phoenix, AZ, in: Geospatial
techniques in urban hazard and disaster analysis, Springer, Dordrecht, 179–202, 2009.
Russo, S., Sillmann, J., and Sterl, A.: Humid heat waves at different warming levels, Scient. Rep., 7, 7477, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07536-7, 2017.
Russo, S., Sillmann, J., Sippel, S., Barcikowska, M. J., Ghisetti, C., Smid,
M., and O'Neill, B.: Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–9, 2019.
Sailor, D. J. and Muñoz, J. R.: Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the USA – Methodology and results for eight
states, Energy, 22, 987–998, 1997.
Schwingshackl, C., Sillmann, J., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Sandstad, M., and
Aunan, K.: Heat Stress Indicators in CMIP6: Estimating Future Trends and
Exceedances of Impact-Relevant Thresholds, Earth's Future, 9, e2020EF001885,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001885, 2021.
SEDAC: Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11, NASA, Palisades, NY, 2018.
Shin, M. and Do, S. L.: Prediction of cooling energy use in buildings using an enthalpy-based cooling degree days method in a hot and humid climate,
Energy Build., 110, 57–70, 2016.
Simolo, C., Brunetti, M., Maugeri, M., and Nanni, T.: Evolution of extreme
temperatures in a warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl048437, 2011.
Sivak, M.: Potential energy demand for cooling in the 50 largest metropolitan areas of the world: Implications for developing countries, Energy Policy, 37, 1382–1384, 2009.
Stouffer, R. J. and Manabe, S.: Assessing temperature pattern projections made in 1989, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 163–165, 2017.
Sun, Y., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., Song, L., Wan, H., Hu, T., Yin, H., and Ren, G.: Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China,
Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 1082–1085, 2014.
Syakur, M. A., Khotimah, B. K., Rochman, E. M. S., and Satoto, B. D.: Integration K-Means Clustering Method and Elbow Method For Identification of
The Best Customer Profile Cluster, in: 2nd International Conference on Vocational Education and Electrical Engineering (Icvee), 336, 012017
https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899x/336/1/012017, 2018.
Tan, J. G., Zheng, Y. F., Tang, X., Guo, C. Y., Li, L. P., Song, G. X., Zhen, X. R., Yuan, D., Kalkstein, A. J., Li, F. R., and Chen, H.: The urban heat island and its impact on heat waves and human health in Shanghai, Int. J. Biometeorol., 54, 75–84, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-009-0256-x, 2010.
Thirumalai, K., DiNezio, P. N., Okumura, Y., and Deser, C.: Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Nino and worsened by global warming, Nat. Commun., 8, 15531, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15531, 2017.
Thompson, D. W. J., Barnes, E. A., Deser, C., Foust, W. E., and Phillips, A.
S.: Quantifying the Role of Internal Climate Variability in Future Climate Trends, J. Climate, 28, 6443–6456, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-14-00830.1, 2015.
Trenberth, K. and National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds.): The Climate Data Guide: Nino SST Indices (Nino 1+2, 3, 3.4, 4; ONI and TNI), available at: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/nino-sst-indices-nino-12-3-34-4-oni-and-tni (last access: March 2020), 2020.
Trenberth, K. E., Zhang, R., and National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds.): in: The Climate Data Guide: Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), available at: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/atlantic-multi-decadal-oscillation-amo (last access: March 2020), 2020.
Wilhelmi, O. V. and Hayden, M. H.: Connecting people and place: a new framework for reducing urban vulnerability to extreme heat, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 014021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014021, 2010.
Wobus, C., Zarakas, C., Malek, P., Sanderson, B., Crimmins, A., Kolian, M., Sarofim, M., and Weaver, C. P.: Reframing Future Risks of Extreme Heat in the United States, Earths Future, 6, 1323–1335, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ef000943, 2018.
Wood, A. W., Leung, L. R., Sridhar, V., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Hydrologic
implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate
model outputs, Climatic Change, 62, 189–216, https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013685.99609.9e, 2004.
Wuebbles, D. J., Fahey, D. W., and Hibbard, K. A.: Climate science special
report: fourth national climate assessment, in: volume I, US Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 2017.
Zhang, G., Zeng, G., Li, C., and Yang, X.: Impact of PDO and AMO on interdecadal variability in extreme high temperatures in North China over
the most recent 40-year period, Clim. Dynam., 54, 3003–3020, 2020.
Zhang, Y., Held, I., and Fueglistaler, S.: Projections of tropical heat stress constrained by atmospheric dynamics, Nat. Geosci., 14, 133–137, 2021.
Short summary
This paper investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes. There are three major findings in this study. We quantify how unforced variability in the climate impacts can lead to large variations where heat waves occur, we find that all heat extremes increase as the climate warms, especially between 1.5 and 2.0 °C of the average global warming, and we show that the economic inequity of facing extreme heat will worsen in a warmer world.
This paper investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes. There are...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint