Articles | Volume 21, issue 15
Research article 10 Aug 2021
Research article | 10 Aug 2021
The effect of forced change and unforced variability in heat waves, temperature extremes, and associated population risk in a CO2-warmed world
Jangho Lee et al.
No articles found.
Xun Wang and Andrew E. Dessler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13267–13282,Short summary
We investigate the response of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) to different forcing agents, including greenhouse gases and aerosols. For most forcing agents, the SWV response is dominated by a slow response, which is coupled to surface temperature changes and exhibits a similar sensitivity to the surface temperature across all forcing agents. The fast SWV adjustment due to forcing is important when the forcing agent directly heats the cold-point region, e.g., black carbon.
Wandi Yu, Andrew E. Dessler, Mijeong Park, and Eric J. Jensen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12153–12161,Short summary
The stratospheric water vapor mixing ratio over North America (NA) region is up to ~ 1 ppmv higher when deep convection occurs. We find substantial consistency in the interannual variations of NA water vapor anomaly and deep convection and explain both the summer seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the convective moistening efficiency. We show that the NA anticyclone and tropical upper tropospheric temperature determine how much deep convection moistens the lower stratosphere.
Xun Wang, Andrew E. Dessler, Mark R. Schoeberl, Wandi Yu, and Tao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14621–14636,Short summary
We use a trajectory model to diagnose mechanisms that produce the observed and modeled tropical lower stratospheric water vapor seasonal cycle. We confirm that the seasonal cycle of water vapor is primarily determined by the seasonal cycle of tropical tropopause layer (TTL) temperatures. However, between 10° N and 40° N, we find that evaporation of convective ice in the TTL plays a key role contributing to the water vapor seasonal cycle there. The Asian monsoon region is the most important region.
Andrew E. Dessler, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5147–5155,Short summary
One of the most important parameters in climate science is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Estimates of this quantity based on 20th-century observations suggest low values of ECS (below 2 °C). We show that these calculations may be significantly in error. Together with other recent work on this problem, it seems probable that the ECS is larger than suggested by the 20th-century observations.
Hao Ye, Andrew E. Dessler, and Wandi Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4425–4437,Short summary
The deep convection in tropics can inject cloud ice into tropical tropopause layer (TTL), which moistens and increases water vapor there. We primarily study the spatial distribution of impacts from several physical processes on TTL water vapor from observations and trajectory model simulations. The analysis shows the potential moistening impact from evaporation of cloud ice on TTL water vapor. A chemistry–climate model is used to confirm the impact from evaporation of convective ice.
Kevin M. Smalley, Andrew E. Dessler, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, David A. Plummer, Kiyotaka Shibata, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8031–8044,Short summary
This paper explains a new way to evaluate simulated lower-stratospheric water vapor. We use a multivariate linear regression to predict 21st century lower stratospheric water vapor within 12 chemistry climate models using tropospheric warming, the Brewer–Dobson circulation, and the quasi-biennial oscillation as predictors. This methodology produce strong fits to simulated water vapor, and potentially represents a superior method to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric water vapor.
T. Wang, A. E. Dessler, M. R. Schoeberl, W. J. Randel, and J.-E. Kim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3517–3526,Short summary
We investigated the impacts of vertical temperature structures on trajectory simulations of stratospheric dehydration and water vapor by using 1) MERRA temperatures on model levels; 2) GPS temperatures at finer vertical resolutions; and 3) adjusted MERRA temperatures with finer vertical structures induced by waves. We show that despite the fact that temperatures at finer vertical structures tend to dry air by 0.1-0.3ppmv, the interannual variability in different runs is essentially the same.
T. Wang, W. J. Randel, A. E. Dessler, M. R. Schoeberl, and D. E. Kinnison
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7135–7147,
M. R. Schoeberl, A. E. Dessler, and T. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7783–7793,
Related subject area
Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)Anthropogenic aerosol effects on tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (1980–2020): separating the role of zonally asymmetric forcingsLightning-ignited wildfires and long continuing current lightning in the Mediterranean Basin: preferential meteorological conditionsIdentifying source regions of air masses sampled at the tropical high-altitude site of Chacaltaya using WRF-FLEXPART and cluster analysisModelling spatiotemporal variations of the canopy layer urban heat island in Beijing at the neighbourhood scaleDispersion of particulate matter (PM2.5) from wood combustion for residential heating: optimization of mitigation actions based on large-eddy simulationsMeasurement report: Effect of wind shear on PM10 concentration vertical structure in the urban boundary layer in a complex terrainDistinct evolutions of haze pollution from winter to following spring over the North China Plain: Role of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaliesConvective self–aggregation in a mean flowThe potential for geostationary remote sensing of NO2 to improve weather predictionEffect of rainfall-induced diabatic heating over southern China on the formation of wintertime haze on the North China PlainFoehn effect during easterly flow over SvalbardRobust winter warming over Eurasia under stratospheric sulfate geoengineering – the role of stratospheric dynamicsParameterizing the vertical downward dispersion of ship exhaust gas in the near fieldAnthropogenic aerosol forcing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the associated mechanisms in CMIP6 modelsSensitivities of the Madden–Julian oscillation forecasts to configurations of physics in the ECMWF global modelSensitivity of modeled Indian monsoon to Chinese and Indian aerosol emissionsThe spring transition of the North Pacific jet and its relation to deep stratosphere-to-troposphere mass transport over western North AmericaVery long-period oscillations in the atmosphere (0–110 km)Identification of molecular cluster evaporation rates, cluster formation enthalpies and entropies by Monte Carlo methodThe “urban meteorology island”: a multi-model ensemble analysisValidation of reanalysis Southern Ocean atmosphere trends using sea ice dataRevisiting the trend in the occurrences of the “warm Arctic–cold Eurasian continent” temperature patternA microphysics guide to cirrus – Part 2: Climatologies of clouds and humidity from observationsCeilometers as planetary boundary layer height detectors and a corrective tool for COSMO and IFS modelsUsing a coupled large-eddy simulation–aerosol radiation model to investigate urban haze: sensitivity to aerosol loading and meteorological conditionsConfinement of air in the Asian monsoon anticyclone and pathways of convective air to the stratosphere during the summer seasonOn the climate sensitivity and historical warming evolution in recent coupled model ensemblesSurface processes in the 7 November 2014 medicane from air–sea coupled high-resolution numerical modellingHadley cell expansion in CMIP6 modelsAtmospheric teleconnection processes linking winter air stagnation and haze extremes in China with regional Arctic sea ice declineDehydration and low ozone in the tropopause layer over the Asian monsoon caused by tropical cyclones: Lagrangian transport calculations using ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis dataCharacterization of the air–sea exchange mechanisms during a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event using realistic sea state modellingTransport of short-lived halocarbons to the stratosphere over the Pacific OceanA very high-resolution assessment and modelling of urban air qualitySurface temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data setsRole of eyewall and rainband eddy forcing in tropical cyclone intensificationA double ITCZ phenomenology of wind errors in the equatorial Atlantic in seasonal forecasts with ECMWF modelsAnalysis of total column CO2 and CH4 measurements in Berlin with WRF-GHGQuantifying the contribution of anthropogenic influence to the East Asian winter monsoon in 1960–2012Land cover and its transformation in the backward trajectory footprint region of the Amazon Tall Tower ObservatoryLarge-scale dynamics of tropical cyclone formation associated with ITCZ breakdownA numerical process study on the rapid transport of stratospheric air down to the surface over western North America and the Tibetan PlateauGlobal tropopause altitudes in radiosondes and reanalysesHeat transport pathways into the Arctic and their connections to surface air temperaturesTornado-scale vortices in the tropical cyclone boundary layer: numerical simulation with the WRF–LES frameworkDissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy in stably stratified sheared flowsTwo pathways of how remote SST anomalies drive the interannual variability of autumnal haze days in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, ChinaLong-term simulation of the boundary layer flow over the double-ridge site during the Perdigão 2017 field campaignAnthropogenic fine particulate matter pollution will be exacerbated in eastern China due to 21st century GHG warmingOn the role of thermal expansion and compression in large-scale atmospheric energy and mass transports
Chenrui Diao, Yangyang Xu, and Shang-Ping Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18499–18518,Short summary
Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emission has shown a zonal redistribution since the 1980s, with a decline in the Western Hemisphere (WH) high latitudes and an increase in the Eastern Hemisphere (EH) low latitudes. This study compares the role of zonally asymmetric forcings affecting the climate. The WH aerosol reduction dominates the poleward shift of the Hadley cell and the North Pacific warming, while the EH AA forcing is largely confined to the emission domain and induces local cooling responses.
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Heidi Huntrieser, Sergio Soler, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Nicolau Pineda, Javier Navarro-González, Víctor Reglero, Joan Montanyà, Oscar van der Velde, and Nikos Koutsias
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17529–17557,Short summary
Lightning-ignited fires tend to occur in remote areas and can spread significantly before suppression. Long continuing current (LCC) lightning, preferably taking place in dry thunderstorms, is believed to be the main precursor of lightning-ignited fires. We analyze fire databases of lightning-ignited fires in the Mediterranean basin and report the shared meteorological conditions of fire- and LCC-lightning-producing thunderstorms. These results can be useful to improve fire forecasting methods.
Diego Aliaga, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marcos Andrade, Paulo Artaxo, Samara Carbone, Evgeny Kadantsev, Paolo Laj, Alfred Wiedensohler, Radovan Krejci, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16453–16477,Short summary
We investigate the origin of air masses sampled at Mount Chacaltaya, Bolivia. Three-quarters of the measured air has not been influenced by the surface in the previous 4 d. However, it is rare that, at any given time, the sampled air has not been influenced at all by the surface, and often the sampled air has multiple origins. The influence of the surface is more prevalent during day than night. Furthermore, during the 6-month study, one-third of the air masses originated from Amazonia.
Michael Biggart, Jenny Stocker, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, David Carruthers, Sue Grimmond, Yiqun Han, Pingqing Fu, and Simone Kotthaus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13687–13711,Short summary
Heat-related illnesses are of increasing concern in China given its rapid urbanisation and our ever-warming climate. We examine the relative impacts that land surface properties and anthropogenic heat have on the urban heat island (UHI) in Beijing using ADMS-Urban. Air temperature measurements and satellite-derived land surface temperatures provide valuable means of evaluating modelled spatiotemporal variations. This work provides critical information for urban planners and UHI mitigation.
Tobias Wolf, Lasse H. Pettersson, and Igor Esau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12463–12477,Short summary
House heating by wood-burning stoves is cozy and needed in boreal cities, e.g., Bergen, Norway. But smoke (aerosols) from stoves may reduce urban air quality. It can be transported over long distance excessively polluting some neighborhoods. Who will suffer the most? Our modelling study looks at urban pollution in unprecedented meter-sized details tracing smoke pathways and turbulent dispersion in a typical city. We prototype effective policy scenarios to mitigate urban air quality problems.
Piotr Sekuła, Anita Bokwa, Jakub Bartyzel, Bogdan Bochenek, Łukasz Chmura, Michał Gałkowski, and Mirosław Zimnoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12113–12139,Short summary
The wind shear generated on a local scale by the diversified relief’s impact can be a factor which significantly modifies the spatial pattern of PM10 concentration. The vertical profile of PM10 over a city located in a large valley during the events with high surface-level PM10 concentrations may show a sudden decrease with height not only due to the increase in wind speed, but also due to the change in wind direction alone. Vertical aerosanitary urban zones can be distinguished.
Linye Song, Shangfeng Chen, Wen Chen, Jianping Guo, Conglan Cheng, and Yong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ACPShort summary
This study reveals that in most years when haze pollution (HP) over the North China Plain (NCP) is more (less) serious in winter, air condition in the following spring is also worse (better) than normal. Additionally,there appear some years when HP in the following spring are opposite to those in winter. It is found that North Atlantic SST anomalies play important roles in the evolution of HP over the NCP. Thus, North Atlantic SST is an important preceding signal for HP evolution over the NCP.
Hyunju Jung, Ann Kristin Naumann, and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10337–10345,Short summary
We analyze the behavior of organized convection in a large-scale flow by imposing a mean flow to idealized simulations. In the mean flow, organized convection initially propagates slower than the mean wind speed and becomes stationary. The initial upstream and downstream difference in surface fluxes becomes symmetric as the surface momentum flux acts as a drag, resulting in the stationarity. Meanwhile, the surface enthalpy flux has a minor role in the propagation of the convection.
Xueling Liu, Arthur P. Mizzi, Jeffrey L. Anderson, Inez Fung, and Ronald C. Cohen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9573–9583,Short summary
Observations of winds in the planetary boundary layer remain sparse, making it challenging to simulate and predict the atmospheric conditions that are most important for describing and predicting urban air quality. Here we investigate the application of data assimilation of NO2 columns as will be observed from geostationary orbit to improve predictions and retrospective analysis of wind fields in the boundary layer.
Xiadong An, Lifang Sheng, Chun Li, Wen Chen, Yulian Tang, and Jingliang Huangfu
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ACPShort summary
The North China Plain (NCP) suffered many periods of haze in winter during 1985–2015, which is related to the rainfall-induced diabatic heating over southern China. The haze over the NCP is modulated by anomalous anticyclone caused by the Rossby wave and a north–south circulation (NSC) induced mainly by diabatic heating. As a Rossby wave source, the rainfall-induced diabatic supports waves and finally strengthening anticyclone over the NCP. These changes favor haze over the NCP.
Anna A. Shestakova, Dmitry G. Chechin, Christof Lüpkes, Jörg Hartmann, and Marion Maturilli
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ACPShort summary
This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the easterly orographic wind episode which occurred over Svalbard on 30–31 May 2017. This wind caused significant temperature rise on the lee side of the mountains and greatly intensified the snowmelt. This episode was investigated on the basis of measurements collected during the ACLOUD/PASCAL field campaigns with the help of numerical modelling.
Antara Banerjee, Amy H. Butler, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Alan Robock, Isla R. Simpson, and Lantao Sun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6985–6997,Short summary
We find that simulated stratospheric sulfate geoengineering could lead to warmer Eurasian winters alongside a drier Mediterranean and wetting to the north. These effects occur due to the strengthening of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, which shifts the North Atlantic Oscillation to a more positive phase. We find the effects in our simulations to be much more significant than the wintertime effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions which inject much less sulfate aerosol.
Ronny Badeke, Volker Matthias, and David Grawe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5935–5951,Short summary
This work aims to describe the physical distribution of ship exhaust gases in the near field, e.g., inside of a harbor. Results were calculated with a mathematical model for different meteorological and technical conditions. It has been shown that large vessels like cruise ships have a significant effect of up to 55 % downward movement of exhaust gas, as they can disturb the ground near wind circulation. This needs to be considered in urban air pollution studies.
Taufiq Hassan, Robert J. Allen, Wei Liu, and Cynthia A. Randles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5821–5846,Short summary
State-of-the-art climate models yield robust, externally forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the bulk of which are due to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations to net surface shortwave radiation and sea surface temperature. AMOC-related feedbacks act to reinforce this aerosol-forced response, largely due to changes in sea surface salinity (and hence sea surface density), with temperature- and cloud-related feedbacks acting to mute the initial response.
Jun-Ichi Yano and Nils P. Wedi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4759–4778,Short summary
Sensitivities of forecasts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) to various different configurations of the physics are examined with the global model of ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The motivation for the study was to simulate the MJO as a nonlinear free wave. To emulate free dynamics in the IFS, various momentum dissipation terms (
friction) as well as diabatic heating were selectively turned off over the tropics for the range of the latitudes from 20° S to 20° N.
Peter Sherman, Meng Gao, Shaojie Song, Alex T. Archibald, Nathan Luke Abraham, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew Shindell, Gregory Faluvegi, and Michael B. McElroy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3593–3605,Short summary
The aims here are to assess the role of aerosols in India's monsoon precipitation and to determine the relative contributions from Chinese and Indian emissions using CMIP6 models. We find that increased sulfur emissions reduce precipitation, which is primarily dynamically driven due to spatial shifts in convection over the region. A significant increase in precipitation (up to ~ 20 %) is found only when both Indian and Chinese sulfate emissions are regulated.
Melissa L. Breeden, Amy H. Butler, John R. Albers, Michael Sprenger, and Andrew O'Neil Langford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2781–2794,Short summary
Prior research has found a maximum in deep stratosphere-to-troposphere mass/ozone transport over the western United States in boreal spring, which can enhance surface ozone concentrations, reducing air quality. We find that the winter-to-summer evolution of the north Pacific jet increases the frequency of stratospheric intrusions that drive transport, helping explain the observed maximum. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation affects the timing of the spring jet transition and therefore transport.
Dirk Offermann, Christoph Kalicinsky, Ralf Koppmann, and Johannes Wintel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1593–1611,Short summary
Atmospheric oscillations with periods of up to several 100 years exist at altitudes up to 110 km. They are also seen in computer models (GCMs) of the atmospheric. They are often attributed to external influences from the sun, from the oceans, or from atmospheric constituents. This is difficult to verify as the atmosphere cannot be manipulated in an experiment. However, a GCM can be changed arbitrarily. Doing so, we find that long-period oscillations may be excited internally in the atmosphere.
Anna Shcherbacheva, Tracey Balehowsky, Jakub Kubečka, Tinja Olenius, Tapio Helin, Heikki Haario, Marko Laine, Theo Kurtén, and Hanna Vehkamäki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15867–15906,Short summary
Atmospheric new particle formation and cluster growth to aerosol particles is an important field of research, in particular due to the climate change phenomenon. Evaporation rates are very difficult to account for but they are important to explain the formation and growth of particles. Different quantum chemistry (QC) methods produce substantially different values for the evaporation rates. We propose a novel approach for inferring evaporation rates of clusters from available measurements.
Jan Karlický, Peter Huszár, Tereza Nováková, Michal Belda, Filip Švábik, Jana Ďoubalová, and Tomáš Halenka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15061–15077,Short summary
Cities are characterized by their impact on various meteorological variables. Our study aims to generalize these modifications into a single phenomenon – the urban meteorology island (UMI). A wide ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM) simulations investigated urban-induced modifications as individual UMI components. Significant changes are found in most of the discussed meteorological variables with a strong impact of specific model simulations.
William R. Hobbs, Andrew R. Klekociuk, and Yuhang Pan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14757–14768,Short summary
Reanalysis products are an invaluable tool for representing variability and long-term trends in regions with limited in situ data. However, validation of these products is difficult because of that lack of station data. Here we present a novel assessment of eight reanalyses over the polar Southern Ocean, leveraging the close relationship between trends in sea ice cover and surface air temperature, that provides clear guidance on the most reliable product for Antarctic research.
Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, Cuijuan Sui, and Bo Sun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13753–13770,Short summary
The recent increasing trend of "warm Arctic, cold continents" has attracted much attention, but it remains debatable as to what forces are behind this phenomenon. Sea surface temperature (SST) over the central North Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans influences the trend. On an interdecadal timescale, the recent increase in the occurrences of the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern is a fragment of the interdecadal variability of SST over the Atlantic Ocean and over the central Pacific Ocean.
Martina Krämer, Christian Rolf, Nicole Spelten, Armin Afchine, David Fahey, Eric Jensen, Sergey Khaykin, Thomas Kuhn, Paul Lawson, Alexey Lykov, Laura L. Pan, Martin Riese, Andrew Rollins, Fred Stroh, Troy Thornberry, Veronika Wolf, Sarah Woods, Peter Spichtinger, Johannes Quaas, and Odran Sourdeval
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12569–12608,Short summary
To improve the representations of cirrus clouds in climate predictions, extended knowledge of their properties and geographical distribution is required. This study presents extensive airborne in situ and satellite remote sensing climatologies of cirrus and humidity, which serve as a guide to cirrus clouds. Further, exemplary radiative characteristics of cirrus types and also in situ observations of tropical tropopause layer cirrus and humidity in the Asian monsoon anticyclone are shown.
Leenes Uzan, Smadar Egert, Pavel Khain, Yoav Levi, Elyakom Vadislavsky, and Pinhas Alpert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12177–12192,Short summary
Detection of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is crucial to various fields, from air pollution assessment to weather prediction. We examined the diurnal summer PBL height by eight ceilometers in Israel, radiosonde profiles, the global IFS, and regional COSMO models. Our analysis utilized the bulk Richardson number method, the parcel method, and the wavelet covariance transform method. A novel correction tool to improve model results against in-situ ceilometer measurements is introduced.
Jessica Slater, Juha Tonttila, Gordon McFiggans, Paul Connolly, Sami Romakkaniemi, Thomas Kühn, and Hugh Coe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11893–11906,Short summary
The feedback effect between aerosol particles, radiation and meteorology reduces turbulent motion and results in increased surface aerosol concentrations during Beijing haze. Observational analysis and regional modelling studies have examined the feedback effect but these studies are limited. In this work, we set up a high-resolution model for the Beijing environment to examine the sensitivity of the aerosol feedback effect to initial meteorological conditions and aerosol loading.
Bernard Legras and Silvia Bucci
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11045–11064,Short summary
The Asian monsoon is the most active region bringing surface compounds by convection to the stratosphere during summer. We study the transport pathways and the trapping within the upper-layer anticyclonic circulation. Above 15 km, the confinement can be represented by a uniform ascent over continental Asia of about 200 m per day and a uniform loss to other regions with a characteristic time of 2 weeks. We rule out the presence of a
chimneyproposed in previous studies over the Tibetan Plateau.
Clare Marie Flynn and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7829–7842,Short summary
The range of climate sensitivity of models participating in CMIP6 has increased relative to models participating in CMIP5 due to decreases in the total feedback parameter. This is caused by increases in the shortwave all-sky and clear-sky feedbacks, particularly over the Southern Ocean. These shifts between CMIP6 and CMIP5 did not arise by chance. Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are found to exhibit aerosol forcing that is too strong, causing too much cooling relative to observations.
Marie-Noëlle Bouin and Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6861–6881,Short summary
A coupled, kilometre-scale simulation of a medicane is used to assess the impact of the ocean feedback and role of surface fluxes. Sea surface temperature (SST) drop is much weaker than for tropical cyclones, resulting in no impact on the cyclone. Surface fluxes depend mainly on wind and SST for evaporation and on air temperature for sensible heat. Processes in the Mediterranean, like advection of continental air, rain evaporation and dry air intrusion, play a role in cyclone development.
Kevin M. Grise and Sean M. Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5249–5268,Short summary
As Earth's climate warms, the tropical overturning circulation (Hadley circulation) is projected to expand, potentially pushing subtropical dry zones further poleward. This study examines projections of the Hadley circulation from the latest generation of computer models and finds several notable differences from older models. For example, the Northern Hemisphere circulation has expanded northward at a greater rate in recent decades than would be expected from increasing greenhouse gases alone.
Yufei Zou, Yuhang Wang, Zuowei Xie, Hailong Wang, and Philip J. Rasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4999–5017,Short summary
We analyze the relationship between winter air stagnation and pollution extremes over eastern China and preceding Arctic sea ice loss based on climate modeling and dynamic diagnoses. We find significant increases in both the probability and intensity of air stagnation extremes in the modeling result driven by regional sea ice and sea surface temperature changes over the Pacific sector of the Arctic. We reveal the considerable impact of the Arctic climate change on mid-latitude weather extremes.
Dan Li, Bärbel Vogel, Rolf Müller, Jianchun Bian, Gebhard Günther, Felix Ploeger, Qian Li, Jinqiang Zhang, Zhixuan Bai, Holger Vömel, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4133–4152,Short summary
Low ozone and low water vapour signatures in the UTLS were investigated using balloon-borne measurements and trajectory calculations. The results show that deep convection in tropical cyclones over the western Pacific transports boundary air parcels with low ozone into the tropopause region. Subsequently, these air parcels are dehydrated when passing the lowest temperature region (< 190 K) during quasi-horizontal advection.
César Sauvage, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, and Véronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1675–1699,Short summary
Air–sea exchanges during Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are key and their representation must be improved for high-resolution weather forecasts. This study investigates the mechanisms acting at the air–sea interface during a case that occurred in southern France. To focus on the impact of sea state, we developed and used an original coupled air–wave model. Results show modifications of the forecast for the air–sea fluxes, the near-surface wind and the location of precipitation.
Michal T. Filus, Elliot L. Atlas, Maria A. Navarro, Elena Meneguz, David Thomson, Matthew J. Ashfold, Lucy J. Carpenter, Stephen J. Andrews, and Neil R. P. Harris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1163–1181,Short summary
The effectiveness of transport of short-lived halocarbons to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere remains an important unknown in quantifying the supply of ozone-depleting substances to the stratosphere. In early 2014, a major field campaign in Guam in the western Pacific, involving UK and US research aircraft, sampled the tropical troposphere and lower stratosphere. The resulting measurements of CH3I, CHBr3 and CH2Br2 are compared here with calculations from a Lagrangian model.
Tobias Wolf, Lasse H. Pettersson, and Igor Esau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 625–647,Short summary
Exceedances of legal thresholds for urban air pollution are of wide concern. We demonstrate the usefulness of very high-resolution modelling for the assessment of air pollution in the urban space on the example of Bergen, Norway. Vulnerability maps highlight areas with high pollutant loading and pathways for pollutant dispersion. This supports the understanding of urban air pollution beyond existing, scarce monitoring networks and possibly the mitigation of impacts on the local population.
Masatomo Fujiwara, Patrick Martineau, and Jonathon S. Wright
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 345–374,Short summary
The global response of surface air temperature (SST) to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 is investigated using 11 global atmospheric reanalysis data sets. Multiple linear regression is applied, with a set of climatic indices orthogonalized, and the residuals are investigated. It is found that careful treatment of tropical SST variability is necessary to evaluate the surface response to volcanic eruptions in observations and reanalyses.
Ping Zhu, Bryce Tyner, Jun A. Zhang, Eric Aligo, Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, Frank D. Marks, Avichal Mehra, and Vijay Tallapragada
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14289–14310,Short summary
Producing timely and accurate intensity forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs) continues to be one of the most difficult challenges in numerical weather prediction. The difficulty stems from the fact that TC intensification is not only modulated by environmental conditions but also largely depends on TC internal dynamics. The study shows that asymmetric eyewall and rainband eddy forcing above the boundary layer plays an important role in spinning up a TC vortex including rapid intensification.
Jonathan K. P. Shonk, Teferi D. Demissie, and Thomas Toniazzo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11383–11399,Short summary
Modern climate models are affected by systematic biases that harm their ability to produce reliable seasonal forecasts and climate projections. In this study, we investigate causes of biases in wind patterns over the tropical Atlantic during northern spring in three related models. We find that the wind biases are associated with an increase in excess rainfall and convergence in the tropical western Atlantic at the start of April, leading to the redirection of trade winds away from the Equator.
Xinxu Zhao, Julia Marshall, Stephan Hachinger, Christoph Gerbig, Matthias Frey, Frank Hase, and Jia Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11279–11302,Short summary
The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), coupled with greenhouse gas (GHG) modules (WRF-GHG), is considered to be a suitable basis for precise GHG transport analysis in urban areas, especially when combined with differential column methodology (DCM). DCM is an effective method not only for comparing models to observations independently of biases caused, for example, by initial conditions, but also for detecting and understanding sources of GHG emissions quantitatively in urban areas.
Xin Hao, Shengping He, Huijun Wang, and Tingting Han
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9903–9911,Short summary
The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) can be greatly influenced by many factors that can be classified as anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing. Our results show that the increasing anthropogenic emissions in the past decades may have contributed to the weakening of the EAWM, the frequency of occurrence of strong EAWM may have decreased by 45 % due to the anthropogenic forcing, and the anthropogenic forcing is a dominant contributor to the occurrence of a weak EAWM.
Christopher Pöhlker, David Walter, Hauke Paulsen, Tobias Könemann, Emilio Rodríguez-Caballero, Daniel Moran-Zuloaga, Joel Brito, Samara Carbone, Céline Degrendele, Viviane R. Després, Florian Ditas, Bruna A. Holanda, Johannes W. Kaiser, Gerhard Lammel, Jošt V. Lavrič, Jing Ming, Daniel Pickersgill, Mira L. Pöhlker, Maria Praß, Nina Löbs, Jorge Saturno, Matthias Sörgel, Qiaoqiao Wang, Bettina Weber, Stefan Wolff, Paulo Artaxo, Ulrich Pöschl, and Meinrat O. Andreae
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8425–8470,Short summary
The Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) has been established to monitor the rain forest's biosphere–atmosphere exchange, which experiences the combined pressures from human-made deforestation and progressing climate change. This work is meant to be a reference study, which characterizes various geospatial properties of the ATTO footprint region and shows how the human-made transformation of Amazonia may impact future atmospheric observations at ATTO.
Quan Wang, Chanh Kieu, and The-Anh Vu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8383–8397,Short summary
This study presents an analytical model to study large-scale tropical cyclone (TC) formation that can help us understand the maximum capacity of the Earth's atmosphere to produce TCs. Using a barotropic model for the intertropical convergence zone and recent advances in nonlinear dynamical transition, it is found that the Earth's atmosphere can support a limited number of TCs at any given time (<12) in the current climate, thus providing new theoretical insights into the TC formation process.
Bojan Škerlak, Stephan Pfahl, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6535–6549,Short summary
Upper-level fronts are often associated with the rapid transport of stratospheric air to the lower troposphere, leading to significantly enhanced ozone concentrations. This paper considers the multi-scale nature that is needed to bring stratospheric air down to the surface. The final transport step to the surface can be related to frontal zones and the associated vertical winds or to near-horizontal tracer transport followed by entrainment into a growing planetary boundary layer.
Tao Xian and Cameron R. Homeyer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5661–5678,Short summary
Global characteristics and trends in the tropopause (the boundary between troposphere and stratosphere) over a 35-year period (1981–2015) are evaluated using both observations and models. The use of two coordinate systems reveals previously undiagnosed changes in the tropopause altitude within the tropics and extratropics and these results have important implications for studies of climate and atmospheric composition (especially that related to stratosphere–troposphere exchange).
Daniel Mewes and Christoph Jacobi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3927–3937,Short summary
Horizontal moist static energy (MSE) transport patterns were extracted from reanalysis data using an artificial neuronal network for the winter months. The results show that during the last 30 years transport pathways that favour MSE transport through the North Atlantic are getting more frequent. This North Atlantic pathway is connected to positive temperature anomalies over the central Arctic, which implies a connection between Arctic amplification and the change in horizontal heat transport.
Liguang Wu, Qingyuan Liu, and Yubin Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2477–2487,Short summary
The tornado-scale vortex in the tropical cyclone boundary layer has been speculated in intense hurricanes. A numerical experiment is conducted using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast model by incorporating the large-eddy simulation technique. The simulated tornado-scale vortex shows the similar features as revealed with the limited observational data. The presence of the tornado-scale vortex also leads to significant gradients in the near surface wind speed and wind gusts.
Sergej Zilitinkevich, Oleg Druzhinin, Andrey Glazunov, Evgeny Kadantsev, Evgeny Mortikov, Iryna Repina, and Yulia Troitskaya
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2489–2496,Short summary
We consider the budget of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in stably stratified flows. TKE is generated by velocity shear, then partially converted to potential energy, but basically cascades towards very small eddies and dissipates into heat. The TKE dissipation rate is vital for comprehending and modelling turbulent flows in geophysics, astrophysics, and engineering. Until now its dependence on static stability remained unclear. We define it theoretically and validate against experimental data.
Jing Wang, Zhiwei Zhu, Li Qi, Qiaohua Zhao, Jinhai He, and Julian X. L. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1521–1535,Short summary
Less attention has been paid to haze weather during the autumn season. Here, we unravel the mechanism of how SST anomalies over the subtropical North Atlantic and western North Pacific drive the interannual variability of the autumnal haze days in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. The two pathways of SST anomaly forcings can result in an anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over Northeast Asia, leading to a lower-level southerly (northerly) anomaly and in turn more (fewer) haze days in this region.
Johannes Wagner, Thomas Gerz, Norman Wildmann, and Kira Gramitzky
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1129–1146,Short summary
Long-term WRF-LES simulations were performed with a horizontal resolution of 200 m for a period of 49 days during the Perdigão campaign. Simulation results were used to characterize the meteorological conditions and to analyse characteristic flow patterns. It could be shown that thermally driven flows including low-level jets frequently occurred during the observation period. Model results were in very good agreement with observations in spite of the long simulation time.
Huopo Chen, Huijun Wang, Jianqi Sun, Yangyang Xu, and Zhicong Yin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 233–243,Short summary
Our results show that the anthropogenic air pollution over eastern China will increase considerably at the end of 21st century, even though we keep the aerosol emission constant throughout the experiment. Furthermore, estimation shows that the effect of climate change induced by the GHG warming can account for 11%–28% of the changes of anthropogenic air pollution days over this region.
Melville E. Nicholls and Roger A. Pielke Sr.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15975–16003,Short summary
The current understanding of atmospheric energy and mass transports is that the general circulation moves energy and mass from place to place in a relatively slow manner at the speed of the winds. This study challenges this view and provides evidence that considerable transfer can occur at the speed of sound. This transport mechanism is probably not adequately represented in current global models, which potentially could be a source of error that has yet to be evaluated.
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This paper investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes. There are three major findings in this study. We quantify how unforced variability in the climate impacts can lead to large variations where heat waves occur, we find that all heat extremes increase as the climate warms, especially between 1.5 and 2.0 °C of the average global warming, and we show that the economic inequity of facing extreme heat will worsen in a warmer world.
This paper investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes. There are...