Articles | Volume 21, issue 15
Research article
10 Aug 2021
Research article |  | 10 Aug 2021

The effect of forced change and unforced variability in heat waves, temperature extremes, and associated population risk in a CO2-warmed world

Jangho Lee, Jeffrey C. Mast, and Andrew E. Dessler

Related authors

The response of stratospheric water vapor to climate change driven by different forcing agents
Xun Wang and Andrew E. Dessler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13267–13282,,, 2020
Short summary
Influence of convection on stratospheric water vapor in the North American monsoon region
Wandi Yu, Andrew E. Dessler, Mijeong Park, and Eric J. Jensen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12153–12161,,, 2020
Short summary
Impact of convectively lofted ice on the seasonal cycle of water vapor in the tropical tropopause layer
Xun Wang, Andrew E. Dessler, Mark R. Schoeberl, Wandi Yu, and Tao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14621–14636,,, 2019
Short summary
The influence of internal variability on Earth's energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate sensitivity
Andrew E. Dessler, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5147–5155,,, 2018
Short summary
Effects of convective ice evaporation on interannual variability of tropical tropopause layer water vapor
Hao Ye, Andrew E. Dessler, and Wandi Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4425–4437,,, 2018
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Meteorological modeling sensitivity to parameterizations and satellite-derived surface datasets during the 2017 Lake Michigan Ozone Study
Jason A. Otkin, Lee M. Cronce, Jonathan L. Case, R. Bradley Pierce, Monica Harkey, Allen Lenzen, David S. Henderson, Zac Adelman, Tsengel Nergui, and Christopher R. Hain
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7935–7954,,, 2023
Short summary
Trajectory enhancement of low-earth orbiter thermodynamic retrievals to predict convection: a simulation experiment
Mark T. Richardson, Brian H. Kahn, and Peter Kalmus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7699–7717,,, 2023
Short summary
Lagrangian transport simulations using the extreme convection parameterization: an assessment for the ECMWF reanalyses
Lars Hoffmann, Paul Konopka, Jan Clemens, and Bärbel Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7589–7609,,, 2023
Short summary
Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates
Angshuman Modak and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7535–7549,,, 2023
Short summary
Determination of the chemical equator from GEOS-Chem model simulation: a focus on the tropical western Pacific region
Xiaoyu Sun, Mathias Palm, Katrin Müller, Jonas Hachmeister, and Justus Notholt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7075–7090,,, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Arbuthnott, K., Hajat, S., Heaviside, C., and Vardoulakis, S.: Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: assessing adaptation to climate change, Environ. Health, 15, 73–93, 2016. 
Argaud, L., Ferry, T., Le, Q. H., Marfisi, A., Ciorba, D., Achache, P., Ducluzeau, R., and Robert, D.: Short- and long-term outcomes of heatstroke following the 2003 heat wave in Lyon, France, Arch. Intern. Med., 167, 2177–2183,, 2007. 
Baldwin, J. W., Dessy, J. B., Vecchi, G. A., and Oppenheimer, M.: Temporally Compound Heat Wave Events and Global Warming: An Emerging Hazard, Earths Future, 7, 411–427,, 2019. 
Berrisford, P., Dee, D., Poli, P., Brugge, R., Fielding, K., Fuentes, M., and Simmons, A.: The ERA-Interim archive Version 2.0, Shinfield Park, Reading, available at:, last access: October 2018. 
Birk, K., Lupo, A. R., Guinan, P., and Barbieri, C.: The interannual variability of midwestern temperatures and precipitation as related to the ENSO and PDO, Atmosfera, 23, 95–128, 2010. 
Short summary
This paper investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes. There are three major findings in this study. We quantify how unforced variability in the climate impacts can lead to large variations where heat waves occur, we find that all heat extremes increase as the climate warms, especially between 1.5 and 2.0 °C of the average global warming, and we show that the economic inequity of facing extreme heat will worsen in a warmer world.
Final-revised paper