Articles | Volume 15, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11949-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11949-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Oct 2015
Research article |
| 27 Oct 2015
Stratospheric geoengineering impacts on El Niño/Southern Oscillation
C. J. Gabriel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
A. Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Sam S. Rabin, William J. Sacks, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Lili Xia, and Alan Robock
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7253–7273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7253-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7253-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models can help us simulate how the agricultural system will be affected by and respond to environmental change, but to be trustworthy they must realistically reproduce historical patterns. When farmers plant their crops and what varieties they choose will be important aspects of future adaptation. Here, we improve the crop component of a global model to better simulate observed growing seasons and examine the impacts on simulated crop yields and irrigation demand.
Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Joshua Coupe, Owen B. Toon, and Charles G. Bardeen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6691–6701, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6691-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A nuclear war could produce a nuclear winter, with catastrophic consequences for global food supplies. Nuclear winter theory helped to end the nuclear arms race in the 1980s, but more than 10 000 nuclear weapons still exist. This means they can be used, by unstable leaders, accidently from technical malfunctions or human error, or by terrorists. Therefore, it is urgent for scientists to study these issues, broadly communicate their results, and work for the elimination of nuclear weapons.
Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Mark Lawrence, Peter Irvine, Ulrike Niemeier, Lili Xia, Gabriel Chiodo, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, John C. Moore, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5149–5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.
Davide Zanchettin, Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Slimane Bekki, Jason Cole, Shih-Wei Fang, Wuhu Feng, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Nicolas Lebas, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Sara Rubinetti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Helen Weierbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides metadata and first analyses of the volc-pinatubo-full experiment of CMIP6-VolMIP. Results from six Earth system models reveal significant differences in radiative flux anomalies that trace back to different implementations of volcanic forcing. Surface responses are in contrast overall consistent across models, reflecting the large spread due to internal variability. A second phase of VolMIP shall consider both aspects toward improved protocol for volc-pinatubo-full.
Wouter Dorigo, Irene Himmelbauer, Daniel Aberer, Lukas Schremmer, Ivana Petrakovic, Luca Zappa, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Angelika Xaver, Frank Annor, Jonas Ardö, Dennis Baldocchi, Marco Bitelli, Günter Blöschl, Heye Bogena, Luca Brocca, Jean-Christophe Calvet, J. Julio Camarero, Giorgio Capello, Minha Choi, Michael C. Cosh, Nick van de Giesen, Istvan Hajdu, Jaakko Ikonen, Karsten H. Jensen, Kasturi Devi Kanniah, Ileen de Kat, Gottfried Kirchengast, Pankaj Kumar Rai, Jenni Kyrouac, Kristine Larson, Suxia Liu, Alexander Loew, Mahta Moghaddam, José Martínez Fernández, Cristian Mattar Bader, Renato Morbidelli, Jan P. Musial, Elise Osenga, Michael A. Palecki, Thierry Pellarin, George P. Petropoulos, Isabella Pfeil, Jarrett Powers, Alan Robock, Christoph Rüdiger, Udo Rummel, Michael Strobel, Zhongbo Su, Ryan Sullivan, Torbern Tagesson, Andrej Varlagin, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Jeffrey Walker, Jun Wen, Fred Wenger, Jean Pierre Wigneron, Mel Woods, Kun Yang, Yijian Zeng, Xiang Zhang, Marek Zreda, Stephan Dietrich, Alexander Gruber, Peter van Oevelen, Wolfgang Wagner, Klaus Scipal, Matthias Drusch, and Roberto Sabia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5749–5804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) is a community-based open-access data portal for soil water measurements taken at the ground and is accessible at https://ismn.earth. Over 1000 scientific publications and thousands of users have made use of the ISMN. The scope of this paper is to inform readers about the data and functionality of the ISMN and to provide a review of the scientific progress facilitated through the ISMN with the scope to shape future research and operations.
Antara Banerjee, Amy H. Butler, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Alan Robock, Isla R. Simpson, and Lantao Sun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6985–6997, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We find that simulated stratospheric sulfate geoengineering could lead to warmer Eurasian winters alongside a drier Mediterranean and wetting to the north. These effects occur due to the strengthening of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, which shifts the North Atlantic Oscillation to a more positive phase. We find the effects in our simulations to be much more significant than the wintertime effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions which inject much less sulfate aerosol.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study finds how and why five state-of-the-art global climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosols differ when simulating the aftermath of large volcanic injections as part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP). We identify and explain the consequences of significant disparities in the underlying physics and chemistry currently in some of the models, which are problems likely not unique to the models participating in this study.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Anthony C. Jones, Simone Tilmes, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Two different methods of simulating a geoengineering scenario are compared using data from two different Earth system models. One method is very idealised while the other includes details of a plausible mechanism. The results from both models agree that the idealised approach does not capture an impact found when detailed modelling is included, namely that geoengineering induces a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which leads to warmer, wetter winters in northern Europe.
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Ben Kravitz, Philip J. Rasch, Hailong Wang, Alan Robock, Corey Gabriel, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, Shuting Yang, and Jin-Ho Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13097–13113, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Marine cloud brightening has been proposed as a means of geoengineering/climate intervention, or deliberately altering the climate system to offset anthropogenic climate change. In idealized simulations that highlight contrasts between land and ocean, we find that the globe warms, including the ocean due to transport of heat from land. This study reinforces that no net energy input into the Earth system does not mean that temperature will necessarily remain unchanged.
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
Lili Xia, Peer J. Nowack, Simone Tilmes, and Alan Robock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11913–11928, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11913-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11913-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone is a key air pollutant. We model two geoengineering schemes, stratospheric sulfur injection and solar irradiance reduction, to compare their impacts on atmospheric ozone concentrations. With the nearly identical global mean surface temperature reduction, solar dimming increases global average surface ozone concentration, while sulfate injection decreases it. This difference is due to different stratosphere–troposphere exchange of ozone and tropospheric ozone chemistry in the two scenarios.
Corey J. Gabriel, Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Brian Zambri, and Ben Kravitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 595–613, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-595-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-595-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The National Center for Atmospheric Research CESM-CAM4-CHEM global climate model was modified to simulate a scheme in which the albedo of the ocean surface is raised over the subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere. Global mean surface temperature in G4Foam is 0.6K lower than RCP6.0, with statistically significant cooling relative to RCP6.0 south of 30° N and an increase in rainfall over land, most pronouncedly during the JJA season, relative to both G4SSA and RCP6.0.
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
L. Xia, A. Robock, S. Tilmes, and R. R. Neely III
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1479–1489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1479-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1479-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations show that stratospheric sulfate geoengineering could impact the terrestrial carbon cycle by enhancing the carbon sink. Enhanced downward diffuse radiation, combined with cooling, could stimulate plants to grow more and absorb more carbon dioxide. This beneficial impact of stratospheric sulfate geoengineering would need to be balanced by a large number of potential risks in any future decisions about implementation of geoengineering.
B. Kravitz, A. Robock, S. Tilmes, O. Boucher, J. M. English, P. J. Irvine, A. Jones, M. G. Lawrence, M. MacCracken, H. Muri, J. C. Moore, U. Niemeier, S. J. Phipps, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, H. Wang, and S. Watanabe
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3379–3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015, 2015
S. Tilmes, M. J. Mills, U. Niemeier, H. Schmidt, A. Robock, B. Kravitz, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Pitari, and J. M. English
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 43–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment “G4 specified stratospheric aerosols” (G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments.
Related subject area
Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Physical processes influencing the Asian climate due to black carbon emission over East Asia and South Asia
Kinematic properties of regions that can involve persistent contrails over the North Atlantic and Europe during April and May 2024
Synoptic and microphysical lifetime constraints for contrails
Country- and species-dependent parameters for the heating degree day method to distribute NOx and PM emissions from residential heating in the EU 27: application to air quality modelling and multi-year emission projections
Contribution of gravity waves to shear in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere: insights from idealized baroclinic life cycle experiments
Significant Response of Methane in the Upper Troposphere to Subseasonal Variability of the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone
Valley floor inclination affecting valley winds and transport of passive tracers in idealised simulations
Source reconstruction via deposition measurements of an undeclared radiological atmospheric release
To what extent is the description of streets important in estimating local air quality: a case study over Paris
Variability and trends in the potential vorticity (PV)-gradient dynamical tropopause
The spatiotemporal evolution of atmospheric boundary layers over a thermally heterogeneous landscape
The marinada fall wind in the eastern Ebro sub-basin: physical mechanisms and role of the sea, orography and irrigation
The influences of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 models
Technical note: Exploring parameter and meteorological uncertainty via emulation in volcanic ash atmospheric dispersion modelling
Role of the Indian Ocean basin mode in driving the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon boundary zone
Extreme ozone episodes in a major Mediterranean urban area
Wintertime extreme warming events in the high Arctic: characteristics, drivers, trends, and the role of atmospheric rivers
Influence of lower-tropospheric moisture on local soil moisture–precipitation feedback over the US Southern Great Plains
The Lagrangian Atmospheric Radionuclide Transport Model (ARTM) – sensitivity studies and evaluation using airborne measurements of power plant emissions
Large-eddy-model closure and simulation of turbulent flux patterns over oasis surface
Impact of the Guinea coast upwelling on atmospheric dynamics, precipitation and pollutant transport over southern West Africa
Investigating multiscale meteorological controls and impact of soil moisture heterogeneity on radiation fog in complex terrain using semi-idealised simulations
Effect of the boundary layer low-level jet on fast fog spatial propagation
Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone forecasts and analysis using the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system with physical parameterization perturbations
Using synthetic case studies to explore the spread and calibration of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts
Meteorological modeling sensitivity to parameterizations and satellite-derived surface datasets during the 2017 Lake Michigan Ozone Study
Trajectory enhancement of low-earth orbiter thermodynamic retrievals to predict convection: a simulation experiment
Lagrangian transport simulations using the extreme convection parameterization: an assessment for the ECMWF reanalyses
Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates
Determination of the chemical equator from GEOS-Chem model simulation: a focus on the tropical western Pacific region
Uncertainty in parameterized convection remains a key obstacle for estimating surface fluxes of carbon dioxide
Antarctic atmospheric Richardson number from radiosonde measurements and AMPS
Divergent convective outflow in large-eddy simulations
Modulation of daily PM2.5 concentrations over China in winter by large-scale circulation and climate change
Modeling of street-scale pollutant dispersion by coupled simulation of chemical reaction, aerosol dynamics, and CFD
Daytime along-valley winds in the Himalayas as simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Evolution of squall line variability and error growth in an ensemble of large eddy simulations
Climatology and variability of air mass transport from the boundary layer to the Asian monsoon anticyclone
Evaluation and bias correction of probabilistic volcanic ash forecasts
The representation of the trade winds in ECMWF forecasts and reanalyses during EUREC4A
Modeling approaches for atmospheric ion–dipole collisions: all-atom trajectory simulations and central field methods
Parameterizing the aerodynamic effect of trees in street canyons for the street network model MUNICH using the CFD model Code_Saturne
Quantifying the impact of meteorological uncertainty on emission estimates and the risk to aviation using source inversion for the Raikoke 2019 eruption
Acceleration of the southern African easterly jet driven by the radiative effect of biomass burning aerosols and its impact on transport during AEROCLO-sA
The Sun's role in decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic
Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble
Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019
Ship-based estimates of momentum transfer coefficient over sea ice and recommendations for its parameterization
Revising the definition of anthropogenic heat flux from buildings: role of human activities and building storage heat flux
An assessment of tropopause characteristics of the ERA5 and ERA-Interim meteorological reanalyses
Feifei Luo, Bjørn H. Samset, Camilla W. Stjern, Manoj Joshi, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Wei Hua, and Shuanglin Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7647–7667, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7647-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7647-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Black carbon (BC) aerosol is emitted from the incomplete combustion of biomass and fossil fuels. We found that Asian BC leads to strong local cooling and drying. Reductions in precipitation primarily depend on the thermodynamic effects due to solar radiation absorption by BC. The combined thermodynamic and dynamic effects shape the spatial pattern of precipitation responses to Asian BC. These results help us further understand the impact of emissions of anthropogenic aerosols on Asian climate.
Sina Maria Hofer and Klaus Martin Gierens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6843–6856, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice supersaturation is an immaterial feature that does not generally move with the wind that carries contrails and cirrus clouds. Here we analyse the different motions and show that ice supersaturated regions (ISSRs) on average move slower than the wind, the direction of movement is usually quite similar, and the distributions of both velocities follow Weibull distributions. The almost identical direction of the movements is beneficial for contrail lifetimes.
Sina Maria Hofer and Klaus Martin Gierens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-326, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The climate effect of contrails depends on contrail lifetime. Thus, it is important to know what constrains the lifetime. In this paper we characterize the two most important contrail dissolution processes via their respective time-scales. Both time-scales are in the order of a couple of hours, depending on the synoptic situation and the size of the contrail ice crystals. The combined time-scale which combines both processes is the harmonic mean of the two single time-scales.
Antoine Guion, Florian Couvidat, Marc Guevara, and Augustin Colette
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2807–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2807-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2807-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The residential sector can cause high background levels of pollutants and pollution peaks in winter. Its emissions are dominated by space heating and show strong daily variations linked to changes in outside temperature. Using heating degree days, we provide country- and species-dependent parameters for the distribution of these emissions, improving the performance of the CHIMERE air quality model. This also allows annual residential emissions to be projected before official publications.
Madhuri Umbarkar and Daniel Kunkel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-351, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) significantly enhance vertical shear in the lowermost stratosphere (LMS), influencing turbulence and mixing in the extratropical transition layer. Using idealized baroclinic life cycle experiments with ICON model, this study demonstrates that moisture and cloud processes amplify GW activity, driving strong shear and turbulence in the LMS. These findings highlight the critical role of GWs in shaping the dynamics in the LMS, in particular for clear air turbulence.
Sihong Zhu, Mengchu Tao, Zhaonan Cai, Yi Liu, Liang Feng, Pubu Sangmu, Zhongshui Yu, and Junji Cao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4188, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) emissions can be transported into the upper troposphere (UT) via the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA), driving CH4 enhancements. Whether emissions or upward transport remain debated. We analyzed UT CH4 variability with AMA dynamics, finding strong ties between CH4 distribution and the AMA’s east-west oscillation. When centered near 80° E, vertical transport largely enhances CH4 anomalies, with circulation effects 1–2 times greater than emissions.
Johannes Mikkola, Alexander Gohm, Victoria A. Sinclair, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 511–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-511-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-511-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the influence of valley floor inclination on diurnal winds and passive tracer transport within idealised mountain valleys using numerical simulations. The valley inclination strengthens the daytime up-valley winds but only up to a certain point. Beyond that critical angle, the winds weaken again. The inclined valleys transport the tracers higher up in the free troposphere, which would, for example, lead to higher potential for long-range transport.
Stijn Van Leuven, Pieter De Meutter, Johan Camps, Piet Termonia, and Andy Delcloo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4057, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use deposition measurements to trace the source of the radioactive isotope Ru-106 released into the atmosphere in 2017, which led to detections in Europe and other parts of the northern hemisphere. Most frequently, measurements of air concentration are used for such purposes. Our research shows that while air concentration data can provide more precise results, deposition measurements can still effectively pinpoint the release location, offering a less costly and more versatile alternative.
Alexis Squarcioni, Yelva Roustan, Myrto Valari, Youngseob Kim, Karine Sartelet, Lya Lugon, Fabrice Dugay, and Robin Voitot
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 93–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-93-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-93-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study highlights the interest of using a street-network model to estimate pollutant concentrations of NOx, NO2, and PM2.5 in heterogeneous urban areas, particularly those adjacent to highways, compared with the subgrid-scale approach embedded in the 3D Eulerian model CHIMERE. However, the study also reveals comparable performances between the two approaches for the aforementioned pollutants in areas near the city center, where urban characteristics are more uniform.
Katharina Turhal, Felix Plöger, Jan Clemens, Thomas Birner, Franziska Weyland, Paul Konopka, and Peter Hoor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13653–13679, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The tropopause separates the troposphere, where many greenhouse gases originate, from the stratosphere. This study examines a tropopause defined by potential vorticity – an analogue for angular momentum that changes sharply in the subtropics, creating a transport barrier. Between 1980 and 2017, this tropopause shifted poleward at lower altitudes and equatorward above, suggesting height-dependent changes in atmospheric circulation that may affect greenhouse gas distribution and global warming.
Mary Rose Mangan, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Bart J. H. van Stratum, Marie Lothon, Guylaine Canut-Rocafort, and Oscar K. Hartogensis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3000, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using observations and high-resolution turbulence modeling, we examine the influence of irrigation-driven surface heterogeneity on the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). We employ different spatial scales of heterogeneity to explore how the influence of surface heterogeneity on the ABL within a single grid cell would change in higher resolution global models. We find that the height of the ABL is highly variable, and that the surface heterogeneity is felt least strongly in the middle of the ABL.
Tanguy Lunel, Maria Antonia Jimenez, Joan Cuxart, Daniel Martinez-Villagrasa, Aaron Boone, and Patrick Le Moigne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7637–7666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7637-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7637-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During the summer in Catalonia, a cool wind, the marinada, blows into the eastern Ebro basin in the afternoon. This study investigates its previously unclear dynamics using observations and a meteorological model. It is found to be driven by a cool marine air mass that flows over the mountains into the basin. The study shows how the sea breeze, upslope winds, larger weather patterns and irrigation play a prominent role in the formation and characteristics of the marinada.
Thanh Le, Seon-Ho Kim, Jae-Yeong Heo, and Deg-Hyo Bae
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6555–6566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the links between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropospheric ozone (O3) using model data. Our results show that ENSO impacts on tropospheric O3 are mainly found over oceans, while the signature of ENSO over continents is largely unclear. These impacts in the midlatitude regions over the Southern Hemisphere may be more significant than previously known. The responses of O3 to ENSO are weak in the middle troposphere and stronger in the upper and lower troposphere.
James M. Salter, Helen N. Webster, and Cameron Saint
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6251–6274, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6251-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Models are used to make forecasts of volcanic ash dispersion during eruptions. These models have unknown inputs relating to the eruption itself, physical processes, and meteorological conditions. We use statistical models to predict the output of the expensive physical model and show we can account for the effects of the different inputs. We compare the model to real-world observations and show that accounting for all sources of uncertainty may lead to different conclusions about the inputs.
Jing Wang, Yanju Liu, Fei Cheng, Chengyu Song, Qiaoping Li, Yihui Ding, and Xiangde Xu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5099–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Based on long-term observational, reanalysis, and numerical model simulation datasets from 1901 through 2014, this study shows that precipitation over the East Asian monsoon boundary zone featured prominent interdecadal changes, with dry summers during the periods preceding 1927, 1939–1945, 1968–1982, and 1998–2010 and wet summers during 1928–1938, 1946–1967, and 2011 onwards. The Indian Ocean basin mode is an important oceanic modulator responsible for its interdecadal variations.
Jordi Massagué, Eduardo Torre-Pascual, Cristina Carnerero, Miguel Escudero, Andrés Alastuey, Marco Pandolfi, Xavier Querol, and Gotzon Gangoiti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4827–4850, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4827-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4827-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses three acute ozone episodes in Barcelona (NE Spain) which have occurred only in recent years and are of particular concern due to the city's significant population. The findings uncover a complex interplay of factors, notably shared among episodes, including pollution transport at different scales and specific weather and emission patterns. These insights significantly enhance our understanding of these occurrences and improve predictive capabilities.
Weiming Ma, Hailong Wang, Gang Chen, Yun Qian, Ian Baxter, Yiling Huo, and Mark W. Seefeldt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4451–4472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4451-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4451-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme warming events with surface temperature going above 0°C can occur in the high-Arctic winter. Although reanalysis data show that these events were short-lived and occurred rarely during 1980–2021, they have become more frequent, stronger, and longer lasting latterly. A dipole pattern, comprising high- and low-pressure systems, is found to be the key in driving them. These findings have implications for the recent changes in sea ice, hydrological cycle, and ecosystem over the Arctic.
Gaoyun Wang, Rong Fu, Yizhou Zhuang, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Joseph A. Santanello, Guiling Wang, Kun Yang, and Kaighin McColl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3857–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the influence of lower-tropospheric humidity on land–atmosphere coupling (LAC) during warm seasons in the US Southern Great Plains. Using radiosonde data and a buoyancy model, we find that elevated LT humidity is crucial for generating afternoon precipitation events under dry soil conditions not accounted for by conventional LAC indices. This underscores the importance of considering LT humidity in understanding LAC over dry soil during droughts in the SGP.
Robert Hanfland, Dominik Brunner, Christiane Voigt, Alina Fiehn, Anke Roiger, and Margit Pattantyús-Ábrahám
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2511–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To show that the three-dimensional dispersion of plumes simulated by the Atmospheric Radionuclide Transport Model within the planetary boundary layer agrees with real plumes, we identify the most important input parameters and analyse the turbulence properties of five different turbulence models in very unstable stratification conditions using their deviation from the well-mixed state. Simulations show that one model agrees slightly better in unstable stratification conditions.
Bangjun Cao, Yaping Shao, Xianyu Yang, Xin Yin, and Shaofeng Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 275–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-275-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our novel scheme enhances large-eddy simulations (LESs) for atmosphere–land interactions. It couples LES subgrid closure with Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST), overcoming MOST's limitations. Validated over diverse land surfaces, our approach outperforms existing methods, aligning well with field measurements. Robustness is demonstrated across varying model resolutions. MOST's influence strengthens with decreasing grid spacing, particularly for sensible heat flux.
Gaëlle de Coëtlogon, Adrien Deroubaix, Cyrille Flamant, Laurent Menut, and Marco Gaetani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15507–15521, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a numerical atmospheric model, we found that cooling sea surface temperatures along the southern coast of West Africa in July cause the “little dry season”. This effect reduces humidity and pollutant transport inland, potentially enhancing West Africa's synoptic and seasonal forecasting.
Dongqi Lin, Marwan Katurji, Laura E. Revell, Basit Khan, and Andrew Sturman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14451–14479, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate fog forecasting is difficult in a complex environment. Spatial variations in soil moisture could impact fog. Here, we carried out fog simulations with spatially different soil moisture in complex topography. The soil moisture was calculated using satellite observations. The results show that the spatial variations in soil moisture do not have a significant impact on where fog occurs but do impact how long fog lasts. This finding could improve fog forecasts in the future.
Shuqi Yan, Hongbin Wang, Xiaohui Liu, Fan Zu, and Duanyang Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13987–14002, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13987-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we quantitatively study the effect of the boundary layer low-level jet (BLLJ) on fast fog spatial propagation; i.e., the fog area expands very fast along a certain direction. The wind speed (10 m s−1) and direction (southeast) of the BLLJ core are consistent with fog propagation (9.6 m s−1). The BLLJ-induced temperature and moisture advections are possible reasons for fast fog propagation. The propagation speed would decrease by 6.4 m s−1 if these advections were turned off.
Miriam Saraceni, Lorenzo Silvestri, Peter Bechtold, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13883–13909, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on three medicanes, tropical-like cyclones that form in the Mediterranean Sea, studied by ensemble forecasting. This involved multiple simulations of the same event by varying initial conditions and model physics parameters, especially related to convection, which showed comparable results. It is found that medicane development is influenced by the model's ability to predict precursor events and the interaction between upper and lower atmosphere dynamics and thermodynamics.
Andrew R. Jones, Susan J. Leadbetter, and Matthew C. Hort
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12477–12503, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper explores spread and calibration properties of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts for hypothetical release events. Real-time forecasts from an ensemble weather prediction system were used to generate an ensemble of dispersion predictions and assessed against simulations produced using analysis meteorology. Results demonstrate good performance overall but highlight more skilful predictions for material released in the upper air compared with releases near the surface.
Jason A. Otkin, Lee M. Cronce, Jonathan L. Case, R. Bradley Pierce, Monica Harkey, Allen Lenzen, David S. Henderson, Zac Adelman, Tsengel Nergui, and Christopher R. Hain
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7935–7954, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7935-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7935-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We performed model simulations to assess the impact of different parameterization schemes, surface initialization datasets, and analysis nudging on lower-tropospheric conditions near Lake Michigan. Simulations were run with high-resolution, real-time datasets depicting lake surface temperatures, green vegetation fraction, and soil moisture. The most accurate results were obtained when using high-resolution sea surface temperature and soil datasets to constrain the model simulations.
Mark T. Richardson, Brian H. Kahn, and Peter Kalmus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7699–7717, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection over land often triggers hours after a satellite last passed overhead and measured the state of the atmosphere, and during those hours the atmosphere can change greatly. Here we show that it is possible to reconstruct most of those changes by using weather forecast winds to predict where warm and moist air parcels will travel. The results can be used to better predict where precipitation is likely to happen in the hours after satellite measurements.
Lars Hoffmann, Paul Konopka, Jan Clemens, and Bärbel Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7589–7609, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7589-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7589-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric convection plays a key role in tracer transport in the troposphere. Global meteorological forecasts and reanalyses typically have a coarse spatiotemporal resolution that does not adequately resolve the dynamics, transport, and mixing of air associated with storm systems or deep convection. We discuss the application of the extreme convection parameterization in a Lagrangian transport model to improve simulations of tracer transport from the boundary layer into the free troposphere.
Angshuman Modak and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7535–7549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an improved estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) constrained based on the instrumental temperature record including the corrections for the pattern effect. The improved estimate factors in the uncertainty caused by the underlying sea-surface temperature datasets used in the estimates of pattern effect. This together with the inter-model spread lifts the corresponding IPCC AR6 estimate to 3.2 K [1.8 to 11.0], which is lower and better constrained than in past studies.
Xiaoyu Sun, Mathias Palm, Katrin Müller, Jonas Hachmeister, and Justus Notholt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7075–7090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7075-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The tropical western Pacific (TWP) is an active interhemispheric transport region contributing significantly to the global climate. A method to determine the chemical equator was developed by model simulations of a virtual passive tracer to analyze transport in the tropics, with a focus on the TWP region. We compare the chemical equator with tropical rain belts and wind fields and obtain a vertical pattern of interhemispheric transport processes which shows tilt structure in certain seasons.
Andrew E. Schuh and Andrew R. Jacobson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6285–6297, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6285-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6285-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A comparison of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations resulting from two different atmospheric transport models showed large differences in predicted concentrations with significant space–time correlations. The vertical mixing of long-lived trace gases by convection was determined to be the main driver of these differences. The resulting uncertainty was deemed significant to the application of using atmospheric gradients of carbon dioxide to estimate surface fluxes of carbon dioxide.
Qike Yang, Xiaoqing Wu, Xiaodan Hu, Zhiyuan Wang, Chun Qing, Tao Luo, Pengfei Wu, Xianmei Qian, and Yiming Guo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6339–6355, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6339-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6339-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The AMPS-forecasted Richardson number was first comprehensively validated over the Antarctic continent. Some potential underlying reasons for the discrepancies between the forecasts and observations were analyzed. The underlying physical processes of triggering atmospheric turbulence in Antarctica were investigated. Our results suggest that the estimated Richardson number by the AMPS is reasonable and the turbulence conditions in Antarctica are well revealed.
Edward Groot and Holger Tost
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6065–6081, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is shown that the outflow from cumulonimbus clouds or thunderstorms in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in idealized high-resolution simulations (LESs) depends linearly on the net amount of latent heat released by the cloud for fixed geometry of the clouds. However, it is shown that, in more realistic situations, convective organization and aggregation (collecting mechanisms of cumulonimbus clouds) affect the amount of outflow non-linearly through non-idealized geometry.
Zixuan Jia, Carlos Ordóñez, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Steven T. Turnock, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2829–2842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the influence of the winter large-scale circulation on daily concentrations of PM2.5 and their sensitivity to emissions. The new proposed circulation index can effectively distinguish different levels of air pollution and explain changes in PM2.5 sensitivity to emissions from local and surrounding regions. We then project future changes in PM2.5 concentrations using this index and find an increase in PM2.5 concentrations over the region due to climate change.
Chao Lin, Yunyi Wang, Ryozo Ooka, Cédric Flageul, Youngseob Kim, Hideki Kikumoto, Zhizhao Wang, and Karine Sartelet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1421–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1421-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1421-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, SSH-aerosol, a modular box model that simulates the evolution of gas, primary, and secondary aerosols, is coupled with the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software, OpenFOAM and Code_Saturne. The transient dispersion of pollutants emitted from traffic in a street canyon of Greater Paris is simulated. The coupled model achieved better agreement in NO2 and PM10 with measurement data than the conventional CFD simulation which regards pollutants as passive scalars.
Johannes Mikkola, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marja Bister, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 821–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Local winds in four valleys located in the Nepal Himalayas are studied by means of high-resolution meteorological modelling. Well-defined daytime up-valley winds are simulated in all of the valleys with some variation in the flow depth and strength among the valleys and their parts. Parts of the valleys with a steep valley floor inclination (2–5°) are associated with weaker and shallower daytime up-valley winds compared with the parts that have nearly flat valley floors (< 1°).
Edward Groot and Holger Tost
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 565–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-565-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Thunderstorm systems play an important role in the dynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere, and some of them form a well-organised line: squall lines. Simulations of such squall lines with very small initial perturbations are compared to a reference simulation. The evolution of perturbations and processes amplifying them are analysed. It is shown that the formation of new secondary thunderstorm cells (after the initial primary cells) directly ahead of the line affects the spread strongly.
Matthias Nützel, Sabine Brinkop, Martin Dameris, Hella Garny, Patrick Jöckel, Laura L. Pan, and Mijeong Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15659–15683, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15659-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
During the Asian summer monsoon season, a large high-pressure system is present at levels close to the tropopause above Asia. We analyse how air masses are transported from surface levels to this high-pressure system, which shows distinct features from the surrounding air masses. To this end, we employ multiannual data from two complementary models that allow us to analyse the climatology as well as the interannual and intraseasonal variability of these transport pathways.
Alice Crawford, Tianfeng Chai, Binyu Wang, Allison Ring, Barbara Stunder, Christopher P. Loughner, Michael Pavolonis, and Justin Sieglaff
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13967–13996, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13967-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes the development of a workflow which produces probabilistic and quantitative forecasts of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. The workflow includes methods of incorporating satellite observations of the ash cloud into a modeling framework as well as verification statistics that can be used to guide further model development and provide information for risk-based approaches to flight planning.
Alessandro Carlo Maria Savazzi, Louise Nuijens, Irina Sandu, Geet George, and Peter Bechtold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13049–13066, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13049-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13049-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Winds are of great importance for the transport of energy and moisture in the atmosphere. In this study we use measurements from the EUREC4A field campaign and several model experiments to understand the wind bias in the forecasts produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We are able to link the model errors to heights above 2 km and to the representation of the diurnal cycle of winds: the model makes the winds too slow in the morning and too strong in the evening.
Ivo Neefjes, Roope Halonen, Hanna Vehkamäki, and Bernhard Reischl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11155–11172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11155-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Collisions between ionic and dipolar molecules and clusters facilitate the formation of atmospheric aerosol particles, which affect global climate and air quality. We compared often-used classical approaches for calculating ion–dipole collision rates with robust atomistic computer simulations. While classical approaches work for simple ions and dipoles only, our modeling approach can also efficiently calculate reasonable collision properties for more complex systems.
Alice Maison, Cédric Flageul, Bertrand Carissimo, Yunyi Wang, Andrée Tuzet, and Karine Sartelet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9369–9388, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9369-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9369-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a parameterization of the tree crown effect on air flow and pollutant dispersion in a street network model used to simulate air quality at the street level. The new parameterization is built using a finer-scale model (computational fluid dynamics). The tree effect increases with the leaf area index and the crown volume fraction of the trees; the street horizontal velocity is reduced by up to 68 % and the vertical transfer into or out of the street by up to 23 %.
Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Cameron Saint, Andrew T. Prata, Helen N. Webster, and Roy G. Grainger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8529–8545, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8529-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8529-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the event of a volcanic eruption, airlines need to make decisions about which routes are safe to operate and ensure that airborne aircraft land safely. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of a statistical technique that best combines ash information from satellites and a suite of computer forecasts of ash concentration to provide a range of plausible estimates of how much volcanic ash emitted from a volcano is available to undergo long-range transport.
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Laurent Labbouz, Cyrille Flamant, and Alma Hodzic
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8639–8658, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8639-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ground-based, spaceborne and rare airborne observations of biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) during the AEROCLO-sA field campaign in 2017 are complemented with convection-permitting simulations with online trajectories. The results show that the radiative effect of the BBA accelerates the southern African easterly jet and generates upward motions that transport the BBAs to higher altitudes and farther southwest.
Annika Drews, Wenjuan Huo, Katja Matthes, Kunihiko Kodera, and Tim Kruschke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7893–7904, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar irradiance varies with a period of approximately 11 years. Using a unique large chemistry–climate model dataset, we investigate the solar surface signal in the North Atlantic and European region and find that it changes over time, depending on the strength of the solar cycle. For the first time, we estimate the potential predictability associated with including realistic solar forcing in a model. These results may improve seasonal to decadal predictions of European climate.
Shipra Jain, Ruth M. Doherty, David Sexton, Steven Turnock, Chaofan Li, Zixuan Jia, Zongbo Shi, and Lin Pei
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7443–7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a range of future projections of winter haze and clear conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using multiple simulations from a climate model for the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). The frequency of haze conducive weather is likely to increase whereas the frequency of clear weather is likely to decrease in future. The total number of hazy days for a given winter can be as much as ˜3.5 times higher than the number of clear days over the NCP.
Antonio Capponi, Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Keith Beven, Cameron Saint, Cathie Wells, and Mike R. James
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6115–6134, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are hampered by uncertainties in parameters describing the characteristics of volcanic plumes. Uncertainty quantification is vital for making robust flight-planning decisions. We present a method using satellite data to refine a series of volcanic ash dispersion forecasts and quantify these uncertainties. We show how we can improve forecast accuracy and potentially reduce the regions of high risk of volcanic ash relevant to aviation.
Piyush Srivastava, Ian M. Brooks, John Prytherch, Dominic J. Salisbury, Andrew D. Elvidge, Ian A. Renfrew, and Margaret J. Yelland
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4763–4778, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4763-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4763-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The parameterization of surface turbulent fluxes over sea ice remains a weak point in weather forecast and climate models. Recent theoretical developments have introduced more extensive physics but these descriptions are poorly constrained due to a lack of observation data. Here we utilize a large dataset of measurements of turbulent fluxes over sea ice to tune the state-of-the-art parameterization of wind stress, and compare it with a previous scheme.
Yiqing Liu, Zhiwen Luo, and Sue Grimmond
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4721–4735, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4721-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic heat emission from buildings is important for atmospheric modelling in cities. The current building anthropogenic heat flux is simplified by building energy consumption. Our research proposes a novel approach to determine ‘real’ building anthropogenic heat emission from the changes in energy balance fluxes between occupied and unoccupied buildings. We hope to provide new insights into future parameterisations of building anthropogenic heat flux in urban climate models.
Lars Hoffmann and Reinhold Spang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4019–4046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4019-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present an intercomparison of 2009–2018 lapse rate tropopause characteristics as derived from ECMWF's ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Large-scale features are similar, but ERA5 shows notably larger variability, which we mainly attribute to UTLS temperature fluctuations due to gravity waves being better resolved by ECMWF's IFS forecast model. Following evaluation with radiosondes and GPS data, we conclude ERA5 will be a more suitable asset for tropopause-related studies in future work.
Cited articles
Arora, V. K., Scinocca, J. F., Boer, G. J., Christian, J. R., Denman, K. L., Flato, G. M., Kharin, V. V., Lee, W. G., and Merryfield, W. J.: Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases, Geophys.Res. Lett., 38, L05805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046270, 2011.
Bellenger, H., Guilyardi, E., Leloup, J., Lengaigne, M., and Vialard, J.: ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 42, 1999–2018, 2013.
Bjerknes, J.: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific, Mon. Weather Rev., 97, 163–172, 1969.
Cai, W., Wang, G., Santoso, A., McPhaden, M., Wu, L., Jin, F.-F., Timmermann, A., Collins, M., Vecchi, G., Lengaigne, M., England, M., Dommenget, D., Takahashi, K., and Guilyardi, E.: Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 111–116, 2014.
Cai, W., Wang, G., Santoso, A., McPhaden, M., Wu, L., Jin, F.-F., Timmermann, A., Collins, M., Vecchi, G., Lengaigne, M., England, M., Dommenget, D., Takahashi, K., and Guilyardi, E.: Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 132–137, 2015.
Caldeira, K. and Myhrvold, N. P.: Projections of the pace of warming following an abrupt increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034039, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034039, 2013.
Caldeira, K., Bala, G., and Cao, L.: The science of geoengineering, Annu. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc., 41, 231–256, 2013.
Clement, A. C., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., and Zebiak, S. E.: An ocean dynamical thermostat, J. Climate, 9, 2190–2196, 1996.
Cobb, K. M., Westphal, N., Sayani, H. R., Watson, J. T., Di Lorenzo, E., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., and Charles, C. D.: Highly variable El Niño-Southern Oscillation throughout the Holocene, Science, 339, 67–70, 2013.
Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Halloran, P., Hinton, T., Hughes, J., Jones, C. D., Joshi, M., Liddicoat, S., Martin, G., O'Connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Sitch, S., Totterdell, I., Wiltshire, A., and Woodward, S.: Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1051–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, 2011.
Crutzen, P.: Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: A contribution to solve a policy dilemma?, Climatic Change, 77, 211–219, 2006.
D'Agostino, R. B., Belanger, A., and Ralph, B.: A suggestion for using powerful and informative tests of normality, The American Statistician, 44, 316–321, 1990.
Dai, Y., Zeng, X. B., Dickinson, R. E., Baker, I., Bonan, G. B., Bosilovich, M. G., Denning, A. S., Dirmeyer, P. A., Houser, P. R., Niu, G. Y., Oleson, K. W., Schlosser, C. A., and Yang, Z.-L.: The Common Land Model (CLM), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1013–1023, 2003.
Decarlo, L. T.: On the meaning and use of kurtosis, Psychol. Methods, 2, 292–307, 1997.
Dufresne, J. L., Foujols, M. A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O, Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S , Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Cheruy, F , Codron, F , Cozic, A , Cugnet, D., de Noblet, N., Duvel, J. P., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L., Fichefet, T., Flavoni, S., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J. Y., Guez, L., Guilyardi, E., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Ghattas, J., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., Labetoulle, S., Lahellec, A., Lefebvre, M. P., Lefevre, F., Levy, C., Li, Z. X., Lloyd, J., Lott, F., Madec, G., Mancip, M., Marchand, M., Masson, S., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Parouty, S., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Schulz, M., Swingedouw, D., Szopa, S., Talandier, C., Terray, P., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2123–2165, 2013.
Emile-Geay, J., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., Cook, E. R., and Haug, G. H.: Volcanoes and ENSO over the past millennium, J. Climate, 21, 3134–3148, 2007.
Gergis, J. L. and Fowler, A. M.: How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525–2002, Adv. Geosci., 6, 173–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-6-173-2006, 2006.
Giorgetta, M. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Reick, C. H., Legutke, S., Bader, J., Böttinger, M., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Glushak, K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H.-D., Ilyina, T., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Mueller, W. A., Notz, D., Pithan, F., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Roeckner, E., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K., Stockhause, M., Timmreck, C., Wegner, J., Widmann, H., Wieners, K.-H., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J., and Stevens, B.: Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 5, 572–597, 2013.
Guilyardi, E., Wittenberg, A., Fedorov, A., Collins, M., Wang, C., Capotondi, A., Oldenborgh, G. J. V., and Stockdale, T.: Understanding El Niño in ocean-atmosphere general circulation models: progress and challenges, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 325–340, 2009.
Guilyardi, E., Bellenger, H., Collins, M., Ferrett, S., Cai, W., and Wittenberg, A.: A first look at ENSO in CMIP5, CLIVAR Exchanges, 58, 29–32, 2012.
Held, I. M. and Soden, B. J.: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming, J. Climate, 19, 5686–5699, 2006.
Held, I. M., Winton, M., Takahashi, K., Delworth, T., Zeng, F., and Vallis, G. K.: Probing the fast and slow components of global warming by returning abruptly to preindustrial forcing, J. Climate, 23, 2418–2427, 2010.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Jones, A., Haywood, J., Boucher, O., Kravitz, B., and Robock, A.: Geoengineering by stratospheric SO2 injection: results from the Met Office HadGEM2 climate model and comparison with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 5999–6006, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-5999-2010, 2010.
Kaplan, A., Cane, M., Kushnir, Y., Clement, A., Blumenthal, M., and Rajagopalan, B.: Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856–1991, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 18567–18589, 1998.
Kirtman, B. P. and Schopf, P. S.: Decadal variability in ENSO predictability and prediction, J. Climate, 11, 2804–2822, 1998.
Kravitz, B., Robock, A., Boucher, O., Schmidt, H., Taylor, K. E., Stenchikov, G., and Schulz, M.: The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), Atmos. Sci. Lett., 12, 162–167, 2011.
Kravitz, B., Robock, A., Tilmes, S., Boucher, O., English, J. M., Irvine, P. J., Jones, A., Lawrence, M. G., MacCracken, M., Muri, H., Moore, J. C., Niemeier, U., Phipps, S. J., Sillmann, J., Storelvmo, T., Wang, H., and Watanabe, S.: The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): simulation design and preliminary results, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 4697–4736, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-4697-2015, 2015.
Li, J., Xie, S.-P., Cook E. R., Morales, M., Christie, D., Johnson, N., Chen, F., D'Arrigo, R., Fowler, A., Gou, X., and Fang, K.: El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 822–826, 2013.
Maher, N., McGregor, S., England, M. H., and Gupta, A. S.: Effects of volcanism on tropical variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6024–6033, 2015.
Mann, M. E., Cane, M. A., Zebiak, S. E., and Clement, A.: Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical Pacific over the past 1000 years, J. Climate, 18, 447–456, 2005.
Marcott, S. A., Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U., and Mix, A. C.: A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11 300 years, Science, 339, 1198–1201, 2013.
McGregor, S., Timmermann, A., England, M. H., Elison Timm, O., and Wittenberg, A. T.: Inferred changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation variance over the past six centuries, Clim. Past, 9, 2269–2284, 2013.
McPhaden, M. L., Zebiak, S. E., and Glantz, M. H.: ENSO as an integrating concept in earth science, Science, 314, 1739–1745, 2006.
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M. L. T., Lamarque, J.-F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Velders, G. J. M., and van Vuuren, D. P. P.: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2300, Climatic Change, 109, 213–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011.
Phipps, S. J., Rotstayn, L. D., Gordon, H. B., Roberts, J. L., Hirst, A. C., and Budd, W. F.: The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 1: Description and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-483-2011, 2011.
Phipps, S. J., Rotstayn, L. D., Gordon, H. B., Roberts, J. L., Hirst, A. C., and Budd, W. F.: The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 2: Response to external forcings, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 649–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-649-2012, 2012.
Power, S. B. and Smith, I. N.: Weakening of the Walker Circulation and apparent dominance of El Niño both reach record levels, but has ENSO really changed?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L18702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030854, 2007.
Robock, A.: Whither geoengineering?, Science, 320, 1166–1167, 2008.
Robock, A., Marquardt, A., Kravitz, B., and Stenchikov, G.: The benefits, risks, and costs of stratospheric geoengineering, Geophys Res. Lett., 36, L19703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039209, 2009.
Schmidt, G. A., Ruedy, R., Hansen, J. E., Aleinov, I., Bell, N., Bauer, M., Bauer, S., Cairns, B., Canuto, V., Cheng, Y., Del Genio, A., Faluvegi, G., Friend, A. D., Hall, T. M., Hu, Y., Kelley, M., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A. A., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Miller, R. L., Nazarenko, L., Oinas, V., Perlwitz, J. P., Perlwitz, J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Russell, G. L., Sato, M., Shindell, D. T., Stone, P. H., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Thresher, D., and Yao, M. S.: Present-day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: Comparison to in situ, satellite and reanalysis data, J. Climate, 19, 153–192, 2006.
Siegenthaler, U., Stocker, T. F., Monnin, E., Luthi, D., Schwander J., Stauffer, B., Raynaud, D., Barnola, J. M., Fischer, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Jouzel, J.: Stable carbon cycle-climate relationship during the late Pleistocene, Science, 310, 1313–1317, 2005.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Tokinaga, H., Xie, S. P., Deser, C., Kosaka, A., and Okumura, Y. M.: Slowdown of the Walker Circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming, Nature, 491, 439–443, 2012.
Trenberth, K. E. and Hoar, T. J.: El Niño and climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 3057–3060, 1997.
Vecchi, G. A. and Soden, B. J.: Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation, J. Climate, 20, 4316–4340, 2007.
Vecchi, G. A., Soden, B. J., Wittenberg, A. T., Held, I. M., Leetmaa, A., and Harrison, M. J.: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing, Nature, 441, 73–76, 2006.
Watanabe, S., Hajima, T., Sudo, K., Nagashima, T., Takemura, T., Okajima, H., Nozawa, T., Kawase, H., Abe, M., Yokohata, T., Ise, T., Sato, H., Kato, E., Takata, K., Emori, S., and Kawamiya, M.: MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 845–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011, 2011.
Yeh, S. W., Ham, Y.-G., and Lee, J.-Y.: Changes in the tropical Pacific SST trend from CMIP3 to CMIP5 and its implication of ENSO, J. Climate, 25, 7764–7771, 2012.
Zebiak, S. E. and Cane, M. L.: A model El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2262–2278, 1987.
Download
The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.
- Article
(1128 KB) - Full-text XML
Short summary
This is a first look at how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) might change under a regime of stratospheric geoengineering (GE). We find neither ENSO event frequency nor ENSO event amplitude will be different under various GE experiments than they would under unabated global warming. We additionally find substantial disagreement between models in depicting ENSO amplitude and frequency. Additionally, output from several GCMs is excluded from comparison due to unrealistic ENSO variability.
This is a first look at how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) might change under a regime...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint