Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3623-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3623-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
ACP Letters
| Highlight paper
| 
27 Mar 2025
ACP Letters | Highlight paper |
| 27 Mar 2025
| 27 Mar 2025
Modulation of the northern polar vortex by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai eruption and the associated surface response
Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, BOKU University, Vienna, Austria
Timofei Sukhodolov
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland
Gabriel Chiodo
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain
Andrin Jörimann
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Jessica Kult-Herdin
Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, BOKU University, Vienna, Austria
Eugene Rozanov
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland
Ozone Layer and Upper Atmosphere Research Laboratory, Saint Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation
Harald H. Rieder
Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, BOKU University, Vienna, Austria
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Christoph Jacobi, Khalil Karami, Ales Kuchar, Manfred Ern, Toralf Renkwitz, Ralph Latteck, and Jorge L. Chau
Adv. Radio Sci., 23, 21–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-23-21-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-23-21-2025, 2025
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Half-hourly mean winds have been obtained using ground-based low-frequency and very high frequency radio observations of the mesopause region at Collm, Germany, since 1984. Long-term changes of wind variances, which are proxies for short-period atmospheric gravity waves, have been analysed. Gravity wave amplitudes increase with time in winter, but mainly decrease in summer. The trends are consistent with mean wind changes according to wave theory.
Yunqian Zhu, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Valentina Aquila, Elisabeth Asher, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Christoph Brühl, Amy H. Butler, Parker Case, Simon Chabrillat, Gabriel Chiodo, Margot Clyne, Lola Falletti, Peter R. Colarco, Eric Fleming, Andrin Jörimann, Mahesh Kovilakam, Gerbrand Koren, Ales Kuchar, Nicolas Lebas, Qing Liang, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham Mann, Michael Manyin, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Newman, Luke D. Oman, Freja F. Østerstrøm, Yifeng Peng, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Samuel Rémy, Takashi Sekiya, Stephen Steenrod, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Rei Ueyama, Daniele Visioni, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Yousuke Yamashita, Pengfei Yu, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, and Zhihong Zhuo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3412, 2024
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To understand the climate impact of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption, we developed a climate model-observation comparison project. The paper describes the protocols and models that participate in the experiments. We designed several experiments to achieve our goal of this activity: 1. evaluate the climate model performance; 2. understand the Earth system responses to this eruption.
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Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 895–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-895-2024, 2024
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Exploring the polar vortex's impact on climate, the study evaluates model simulations against the ERA5 reanalysis data. Revelations about model discrepancies in simulating disruptive stratospheric warmings and vortex behavior highlight the need for refined model simulations of past climate. By enhancing our understanding of these dynamics, the research contributes to more reliable climate projections of the polar vortex with the impact on surface climate.
Christoph Jacobi, Ales Kuchar, Toralf Renkwitz, and Juliana Jaen
Adv. Radio Sci., 21, 111–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-21-111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-21-111-2023, 2023
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Middle atmosphere long-term changes show the signature of climate change. We analyse 43 years of mesopause region horizontal winds obtained at two sites in Germany. We observe mainly positive trends of the zonal prevailing wind throughout the year, while the meridional winds tend to decrease in magnitude in both summer and winter. Furthermore, there is a change in long-term trends around the late 1990s, which is most clearly visible in summer winds.
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14871–14887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14871-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14871-2023, 2023
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Investigation of winds is important to understand atmospheric dynamics. In the summer mesosphere and lower thermosphere, there are three main wind flows: the mesospheric westward, the mesopause southward (equatorward), and the lower-thermospheric eastward wind. Combining almost 2 decades of measurements from different radars, we study the trend, their interannual oscillations, and the effects of the geomagnetic activity over these wind maxima.
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The columnar approach of gravity wave (GW) schemes results in dynamical model biases, but parallel decomposition makes horizontal GW propagation computationally unfeasible. In the global model EMAC, we approximate it by GW redistribution at one altitude using tailor-made redistribution maps generated with a ray tracer. More spread-out GW drag helps reconcile the model with observations and close the 60°S GW gap. Polar vortex dynamics are improved, enhancing climate model credibility.
Gunter Stober, Alan Liu, Alexander Kozlovsky, Zishun Qiao, Ales Kuchar, Christoph Jacobi, Chris Meek, Diego Janches, Guiping Liu, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Satonori Nozawa, Mark Lester, Evgenia Belova, Johan Kero, and Nicholas Mitchell
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5769–5792, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5769-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5769-2022, 2022
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Precise and accurate measurements of vertical winds at the mesosphere and lower thermosphere are rare. Although meteor radars have been used for decades to observe horizontal winds, their ability to derive reliable vertical wind measurements was always questioned. In this article, we provide mathematical concepts to retrieve mathematically and physically consistent solutions, which are compared to the state-of-the-art non-hydrostatic model UA-ICON.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald Rieder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, 2022
Preprint archived
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We focus on the impact of small-scale orographic gravity waves (OGWs) above the Himalayas. The interaction of GWs with the large-scale circulation in the stratosphere is not still well understood and can have implications on climate projections. We use a chemistry-climate model to show that these strong OGW events are associated with anomalously increased upward planetary-scale waves and in turn affect the circumpolar circulation and have the potential to alter ozone variability as well.
Gunter Stober, Ales Kuchar, Dimitry Pokhotelov, Huixin Liu, Han-Li Liu, Hauke Schmidt, Christoph Jacobi, Kathrin Baumgarten, Peter Brown, Diego Janches, Damian Murphy, Alexander Kozlovsky, Mark Lester, Evgenia Belova, Johan Kero, and Nicholas Mitchell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13855–13902, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13855-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13855-2021, 2021
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Little is known about the climate change of wind systems in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere at the edge of space at altitudes from 70–110 km. Meteor radars represent a well-accepted remote sensing technique to measure winds at these altitudes. Here we present a state-of-the-art climatological interhemispheric comparison using continuous and long-lasting observations from worldwide distributed meteor radars from the Arctic to the Antarctic and sophisticated general circulation models.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Ales Kuchar, William Ball, Pavle Arsenovic, Ellis Remsberg, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kunze, David A. Plummer, Andrea Stenke, Daniel Marsh, Doug Kinnison, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, 2021
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The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model simulations and satellite observations using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. MLR analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust solar signal in both H2O and CO. The model results show a general agreement with observations reproducing a negative/positive solar signal in H2O/CO. The pattern of the solar signal varies among the considered models, reflecting some differences in the model setup.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald E. Rieder
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, 2020
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Our study focuses on the impact of topographic structures such as the Himalayas and Rocky Mountains, so-called orographic gravity-wave hotspots. These hotspots play an important role in the dynamics of the middle atmosphere, in particular in the lower stratosphere. We study intermittency and zonally asymmetric character of these hotspots and their effects on the upper stratosphere and mesosphere using a new detection method in various modeling and observational datasets.
Nadja Samtleben, Aleš Kuchař, Petr Šácha, Petr Pišoft, and Christoph Jacobi
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The additional transfer of momentum and energy induced by locally breaking gravity wave hotspots in the lower stratosphere may lead to a destabilization of the polar vortex, which is strongly dependent on the position of the hotspot. The simulations with a global circulation model show that hotspots located above Eurasia cause a total decrease in the stationary planetary wave (SPW) activity, while the impact of hotspots located in North America mostly increase the SPW activity.
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Simulations of locally breaking gravity wave hot spots in the stratosphere show a suppression of wave propagation at midlatitudes, which is partly compensated for by additional wave propagation through the polar region. This leads to a displacement of the polar vortex towards lower latitudes. The effect is highly dependent on the position of the artificial gravity wave forcing. It is strongest (weakest) for hot spots at lower to middle latitudes (higher latitudes).
William T. Ball, Aleš Kuchař, Eugene V. Rozanov, Johannes Staehelin, Fiona Tummon, Anne K. Smith, Timofei Sukhodolov, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Ancelin Coulon, Werner Schmutz, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15485–15500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016, 2016
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We find monthly, mid-latitude temperature changes above 40 km are related to ozone and temperature variations throughout the middle atmosphere. We develop an index to represent this atmospheric variability. In statistical analysis, the index can account for up to 60 % of variability in tropical temperature and ozone above 27 km. The uncertainties can be reduced by up to 35 % and 20 % in temperature and ozone, respectively. This index is an important tool to quantify current and future ozone recovery.
P. Šácha, A. Kuchař, C. Jacobi, and P. Pišoft
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13097–13112, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13097-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13097-2015, 2015
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In this study, we present a discovery of an internal gravity wave activity and breaking hotspot collocated with an area of anomalously low annual cycle amplitude and specific dynamics in the stratosphere over the Northeastern Pacific/Eastern Asia coastal region. The reasons why this particular IGW activity hotspot was not discovered before nor the specific dynamics of this region pointed out are discussed together with possible consequences on the middle atmospheric dynamics and transport.
A. Kuchar, P. Sacha, J. Miksovsky, and P. Pisoft
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6879–6895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6879-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6879-2015, 2015
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We have studied the solar cycle manifestation in the latest generation of the reanalysed data sets by the means of both linear and nonlinear attribution analyses. The study is supplemented by the discussion of the dynamical implications.
Clara Orbe, Alison Ming, Gabriel Chiodo, Michael Prather, Mohamadou Diallo, Qi Tang, Andreas Chrysanthou, Hiroaki Naoe, Xin Zhou, Irina Thaler, Dillon Elsbury, Ewa Bednarz, Jonathon S. Wright, Aaron Match, Shingo Watanabe, James Anstey, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Stefan Versick, Marion Marchand, Feng Li, and James Keeble
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2761, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2761, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main source of wind fluctuations in the tropical stratosphere, which can couple to surface climate. However, models do a poor job of simulating the QBO in the lower stratosphere, for reasons that remain unclear. One possibility is that models do not completely represent how ozone influences the QBO-associated wind variations. Here we propose a multi-model framework for assessing how ozone influences the QBO in recent past and future climates.
Simone Tilmes, Ewa M. Bednarz, Andrin Jörimann, Daniele Visioni, Douglas E. Kinnison, Gabriel Chiodo, and David Plummer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6001–6023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6001-2025, 2025
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In this paper, we describe the details of a new multi-model intercomparison experiment to assess the effects of Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention (SAI) on stratospheric chemistry and dynamics and, therefore, ozone. Second, we discuss the advantages and differences of the more constrained experiment compared to fully interactive model experiments. This way, we advance the process-level understanding of the drivers of SAI-induced atmospheric responses.
Christoph Jacobi, Khalil Karami, Ales Kuchar, Manfred Ern, Toralf Renkwitz, Ralph Latteck, and Jorge L. Chau
Adv. Radio Sci., 23, 21–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-23-21-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-23-21-2025, 2025
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Half-hourly mean winds have been obtained using ground-based low-frequency and very high frequency radio observations of the mesopause region at Collm, Germany, since 1984. Long-term changes of wind variances, which are proxies for short-period atmospheric gravity waves, have been analysed. Gravity wave amplitudes increase with time in winter, but mainly decrease in summer. The trends are consistent with mean wind changes according to wave theory.
Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Beiping Luo, Gabriel Chiodo, Graham Mann, and Thomas Peter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, 2025
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Aerosol particles in the stratosphere affect our climate. Climate models therefore need an accurate description of their properties and evolution. Satellites measure how strongly aerosol particles extinguish light passing through the stratosphere. We describe a method to use such aerosol extinction data to retrieve the number and sizes of the aerosol particles and calculate their optical effects. The resulting data sets for models are validated against ground-based and balloon observations.
Jingyu Wang, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, Blanca Ayarzagüena, William T. Ball, Mohamadou Diallo, Birgit Hassler, James Keeble, Peer Nowack, Clara Orbe, and Sandro Vattioni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-340, 2025
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We analyzed the ozone response under elevated CO2 using the data from CMIP6 DECK experiments. We then looked at the relations between ozone response and temperature and circulation changes to identify drivers of the ozone change. The climate feedback of ozone is investigated by doing offline calculations and comparing models with and without interactive chemistry. We find that ozone-climate interactions are important for Earth System Models, thus should be considered in future model development.
Yunqian Zhu, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Valentina Aquila, Elisabeth Asher, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Christoph Brühl, Amy H. Butler, Parker Case, Simon Chabrillat, Gabriel Chiodo, Margot Clyne, Lola Falletti, Peter R. Colarco, Eric Fleming, Andrin Jörimann, Mahesh Kovilakam, Gerbrand Koren, Ales Kuchar, Nicolas Lebas, Qing Liang, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham Mann, Michael Manyin, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Newman, Luke D. Oman, Freja F. Østerstrøm, Yifeng Peng, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Samuel Rémy, Takashi Sekiya, Stephen Steenrod, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Rei Ueyama, Daniele Visioni, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Yousuke Yamashita, Pengfei Yu, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, and Zhihong Zhuo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3412, 2024
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To understand the climate impact of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption, we developed a climate model-observation comparison project. The paper describes the protocols and models that participate in the experiments. We designed several experiments to achieve our goal of this activity: 1. evaluate the climate model performance; 2. understand the Earth system responses to this eruption.
Sandro Vattioni, Rahel Weber, Aryeh Feinberg, Andrea Stenke, John A. Dykema, Beiping Luo, Georgios A. Kelesidis, Christian A. Bruun, Timofei Sukhodolov, Frank N. Keutsch, Thomas Peter, and Gabriel Chiodo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7767–7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, 2024
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We quantified impacts and efficiency of stratospheric solar climate intervention via solid particle injection. Microphysical interactions of solid particles with the sulfur cycle were interactively coupled to the heterogeneous chemistry scheme and the radiative transfer code of an aerosol–chemistry–climate model. Compared to injection of SO2 we only find a stronger cooling efficiency for solid particles when normalizing to the aerosol load but not when normalizing to the injection rate.
Rachel W.-Y. Wu, Gabriel Chiodo, Inna Polichtchouk, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12259–12275, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12259-2024, 2024
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Strong variations in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex can profoundly affect surface weather extremes; therefore, accurately predicting the stratosphere can improve surface weather forecasts. The research reveals how uncertainty in the stratosphere is linked to the troposphere. The findings suggest that refining models to better represent the identified sources and impact regions in the troposphere is likely to improve the prediction of the stratosphere and its surface impacts.
Miriam Sinnhuber, Christina Arras, Stefan Bender, Bernd Funke, Hanli Liu, Daniel R. Marsh, Thomas Reddmann, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Monika E. Szelag, and Jan Maik Wissing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2256, 2024
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Formation of nitric oxide NO in the upper atmosphere varies with solar activity. Observations show that it starts a chain of processes in the entire atmosphere affecting the ozone layer and climate system. This is often underestimated in models. We compare five models which show large differences in simulated NO. Analysis of results point out problems related to the oxygen balance, and to the impact of atmospheric waves on dynamics. Both must be modeled well to reproduce the downward coupling.
Ales Kuchar, Maurice Öhlert, Roland Eichinger, and Christoph Jacobi
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 895–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-895-2024, 2024
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Exploring the polar vortex's impact on climate, the study evaluates model simulations against the ERA5 reanalysis data. Revelations about model discrepancies in simulating disruptive stratospheric warmings and vortex behavior highlight the need for refined model simulations of past climate. By enhancing our understanding of these dynamics, the research contributes to more reliable climate projections of the polar vortex with the impact on surface climate.
Christoph Staehle, Harald E. Rieder, Arlene M. Fiore, and Jordan L. Schnell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5953–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5953-2024, 2024
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Chemistry–climate models show biases compared to surface ozone observations and thus require bias correction for impact studies and the assessment of air quality changes. We compare the performance of commonly used correction techniques for model outputs available via CMIP6. While all methods can reduce model biases, better results are obtained from more complex approaches. Thus, our study suggests broader use of these techniques in studies seeking to inform air quality management and policy.
Sandro Vattioni, Andrea Stenke, Beiping Luo, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, Elia Wunderlin, and Thomas Peter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4181–4197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4181-2024, 2024
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We investigate the sensitivity of aerosol size distributions in the presence of strong SO2 injections for climate interventions or after volcanic eruptions to the call sequence and frequency of the routines for nucleation and condensation in sectional aerosol models with operator splitting. Using the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2, we show that the radiative and chemical outputs are sensitive to these settings at high H2SO4 supersaturations and how to obtain reliable results.
Christina V. Brodowsky, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Valentina Aquila, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Michael Höpfner, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Ulrike Niemeier, Giovanni Pitari, Ilaria Quaglia, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Claudia Timmreck, Sandro Vattioni, Daniele Visioni, Pengfei Yu, Yunqian Zhu, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5513–5548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, 2024
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The aerosol layer is an essential part of the climate system. We characterize the sulfur budget in a volcanically quiescent (background) setting, with a special focus on the sulfate aerosol layer using, for the first time, a multi-model approach. The aim is to identify weak points in the representation of the atmospheric sulfur budget in an intercomparison of nine state-of-the-art coupled global circulation models.
Christoph Jacobi, Ales Kuchar, Toralf Renkwitz, and Juliana Jaen
Adv. Radio Sci., 21, 111–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-21-111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ars-21-111-2023, 2023
Short summary
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Middle atmosphere long-term changes show the signature of climate change. We analyse 43 years of mesopause region horizontal winds obtained at two sites in Germany. We observe mainly positive trends of the zonal prevailing wind throughout the year, while the meridional winds tend to decrease in magnitude in both summer and winter. Furthermore, there is a change in long-term trends around the late 1990s, which is most clearly visible in summer winds.
Juliana Jaen, Toralf Renkwitz, Huixin Liu, Christoph Jacobi, Robin Wing, Aleš Kuchař, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, and Jorge L. Chau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14871–14887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14871-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14871-2023, 2023
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Short summary
Investigation of winds is important to understand atmospheric dynamics. In the summer mesosphere and lower thermosphere, there are three main wind flows: the mesospheric westward, the mesopause southward (equatorward), and the lower-thermospheric eastward wind. Combining almost 2 decades of measurements from different radars, we study the trend, their interannual oscillations, and the effects of the geomagnetic activity over these wind maxima.
Franziska Zilker, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Tatiana Egorova, Eugene Rozanov, Jan Sedlacek, Svenja Seeber, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13387–13411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023, 2023
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The Montreal Protocol (MP) has successfully reduced the Antarctic ozone hole by banning chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that destroy the ozone layer. Moreover, CFCs are strong greenhouse gases (GHGs) that would have strengthened global warming. In this study, we investigate the surface weather and climate in a world without the MP at the end of the 21st century, disentangling ozone-mediated and GHG impacts of CFCs. Overall, we avoided 1.7 K global surface warming and a poleward shift in storm tracks.
Roland Eichinger, Sebastian Rhode, Hella Garny, Peter Preusse, Petr Pisoft, Aleš Kuchař, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, and Bastian Kern
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5561–5583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5561-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5561-2023, 2023
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The columnar approach of gravity wave (GW) schemes results in dynamical model biases, but parallel decomposition makes horizontal GW propagation computationally unfeasible. In the global model EMAC, we approximate it by GW redistribution at one altitude using tailor-made redistribution maps generated with a ray tracer. More spread-out GW drag helps reconcile the model with observations and close the 60°S GW gap. Polar vortex dynamics are improved, enhancing climate model credibility.
Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Svenja Seeber, Daniela Domeisen, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Franziska Zilker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10451–10472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, 2023
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Stratospheric ozone protects the biosphere from harmful UV radiation. Anthropogenic activity has led to a reduction in the ozone layer in the recent past, but thanks to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, the ozone layer is projected to recover. In this study, we show that projected future changes in Arctic ozone abundances during springtime will influence stratospheric climate and thereby actively modulate large-scale circulation changes in the Northern Hemisphere.
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, James Keeble, Thomas Peter, Svenja Seeber, Andrea Stenke, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Eugene Rozanov, David Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, and Béatrice Josse
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10235–10254, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023, 2023
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Previously, it has been suggested that springtime Arctic ozone depletion might worsen in the coming decades due to climate change, which might counteract the effect of reduced ozone-depleting substances. Here, we show with different chemistry–climate models that springtime Arctic ozone depletion will likely decrease in the future. Further, we explain why models show a large spread in the projected development of Arctic ozone depletion and use the model spread to constrain future projections.
Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, Timofei Sukhodolov, Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Franziska Zilker, and Eugene Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5135–5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5135-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5135-2023, 2023
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This paper describes the climate and atmosphere benefits of the Montreal Protocol, simulated with the state-of-the-art Earth system model SOCOLv4.0. We have added to and confirmed the previous studies by showing that without the Montreal Protocol by the end of the 21st century there would be a dramatic reduction in the ozone layer as well as substantial perturbation of the essential climate variables in the troposphere caused by the warming from increasing ozone-depleting substances.
Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Mark Lawrence, Peter Irvine, Ulrike Niemeier, Lili Xia, Gabriel Chiodo, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, John C. Moore, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5149–5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, 2023
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Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4801–4817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4801-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4801-2023, 2023
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The future ozone evolution in SOCOLv4 simulations under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios has been assessed for the period 2015–2099 and subperiods using the DLM approach. The SOCOLv4 projects a decline in tropospheric ozone in the 2030s in SSP2-4.5 and in the 2060s in SSP5-8.5. The stratospheric ozone increase is ~3 times higher in SSP5-8.5, confirming the important role of GHGs in ozone evolution. We also showed that tropospheric ozone strongly impacts the total column in the tropics.
Andrey V. Koval, Olga N. Toptunova, Maxim A. Motsakov, Ksenia A. Didenko, Tatiana S. Ermakova, Nikolai M. Gavrilov, and Eugene V. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4105–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4105-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4105-2023, 2023
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Periodic changes in all hydrodynamic parameters are constantly observed in the atmosphere. The amplitude of these fluctuations increases with height due to a decrease in the atmospheric density. In the upper layers of the atmosphere, waves are the dominant form of motion. We use a model of the general circulation of the atmosphere to study the contribution to the formation of the dynamic and temperature regimes of the middle and upper atmosphere made by different global-scale atmospheric waves.
Ilaria Quaglia, Claudia Timmreck, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Christina Brodowsky, Christoph Brühl, Sandip S. Dhomse, Henning Franke, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Eugene Rozanov, and Timofei Sukhodolov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 921–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, 2023
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The last very large explosive volcanic eruption we have measurements for is the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. It is therefore often used as a benchmark for climate models' ability to reproduce these kinds of events. Here, we compare available measurements with the results from multiple experiments conducted with climate models interactively simulating the aerosol cloud formation.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, William Ball, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15333–15350, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022, 2022
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Applying the dynamic linear model, we confirm near-global ozone recovery (55°N–55°S) in the mesosphere, upper and middle stratosphere, and a steady increase in the troposphere. We also show that modern chemistry–climate models (CCMs) like SOCOLv4 may reproduce the observed trend distribution of lower stratospheric ozone, despite exhibiting a lower magnitude and statistical significance. The obtained ozone trend pattern in SOCOLv4 is generally consistent with observations and reanalysis datasets.
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Andrea Stenke, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13997–14017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, 2022
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In spring, winds the Arctic stratosphere change direction – an event called final stratospheric warming (FSW). Here, we examine whether the interannual variability in Arctic stratospheric ozone impacts the timing of the FSW. We find that Arctic ozone shifts the FSW to earlier and later dates in years with high and low ozone via the absorption of UV light. The modulation of the FSW by ozone has consequences for surface climate in ozone-rich years, which may result in better seasonal predictions.
Nora Bergner, Marina Friedel, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Darryn Waugh, and Gabriel Chiodo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13915–13934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, 2022
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Polar vortex extremes, particularly situations with an unusually weak cyclonic circulation in the stratosphere, can influence the surface climate in the spring–summer time in the Southern Hemisphere. Using chemistry-climate models and observations, we evaluate the robustness of the surface impacts. While models capture the general surface response, they do not show the observed climate patterns in midlatitude regions, which we trace back to biases in the models' circulations.
Gunter Stober, Alan Liu, Alexander Kozlovsky, Zishun Qiao, Ales Kuchar, Christoph Jacobi, Chris Meek, Diego Janches, Guiping Liu, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Satonori Nozawa, Mark Lester, Evgenia Belova, Johan Kero, and Nicholas Mitchell
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5769–5792, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5769-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5769-2022, 2022
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Precise and accurate measurements of vertical winds at the mesosphere and lower thermosphere are rare. Although meteor radars have been used for decades to observe horizontal winds, their ability to derive reliable vertical wind measurements was always questioned. In this article, we provide mathematical concepts to retrieve mathematically and physically consistent solutions, which are compared to the state-of-the-art non-hydrostatic model UA-ICON.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald Rieder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-474, 2022
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We focus on the impact of small-scale orographic gravity waves (OGWs) above the Himalayas. The interaction of GWs with the large-scale circulation in the stratosphere is not still well understood and can have implications on climate projections. We use a chemistry-climate model to show that these strong OGW events are associated with anomalously increased upward planetary-scale waves and in turn affect the circumpolar circulation and have the potential to alter ozone variability as well.
Irina Mironova, Miriam Sinnhuber, Galina Bazilevskaya, Mark Clilverd, Bernd Funke, Vladimir Makhmutov, Eugene Rozanov, Michelle L. Santee, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Thomas Ulich
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6703–6716, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6703-2022, 2022
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From balloon measurements, we detected unprecedented, extremely powerful, electron precipitation over the middle latitudes. The robustness of this event is confirmed by satellite observations of electron fluxes and chemical composition, as well as by ground-based observations of the radio signal propagation. The applied chemistry–climate model shows the almost complete destruction of ozone in the mesosphere over the region where high-energy electrons were observed.
Debra K. Weisenstein, Daniele Visioni, Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, Sandro Vattioni, Gabriel Chiodo, Thomas Peter, and David W. Keith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2955–2973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2955-2022, 2022
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This paper explores a potential method of geoengineering that could be used to slow the rate of change of climate over decadal scales. We use three climate models to explore how injections of accumulation-mode sulfuric acid aerosol change the large-scale stratospheric particle size distribution and radiative forcing response for the chosen scenarios. Radiative forcing per unit sulfur injected and relative to the change in aerosol burden is larger with particulate than with SO2 injections.
Kseniia Golubenko, Eugene Rozanov, Gennady Kovaltsov, Ari-Pekka Leppänen, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Ilya Usoskin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7605–7620, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7605-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7605-2021, 2021
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A new full 3-D time-dependent model, based on SOCOL-AERv2, of beryllium atmospheric production, transport, and deposition has been developed and validated using directly measured data. The model is recommended to be used in studies related to, e.g., atmospheric dynamical patterns, extreme solar particle storms, long-term solar activity reconstruction from cosmogenic proxy data, and solar–terrestrial relations.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Carlos A. Cuevas, Rafael P. Fernandez, Tomás Sherwen, Rainer Volkamer, Theodore K. Koenig, Tanguy Giroud, and Thomas Peter
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6623–6645, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6623-2021, 2021
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Here, we present the iodine chemistry module in the SOCOL-AERv2 model. The obtained iodine distribution demonstrated a good agreement when validated against other simulations and available observations. We also estimated the iodine influence on ozone in the case of present-day iodine emissions, the sensitivity of ozone to doubled iodine emissions, and when considering only organic or inorganic iodine sources. The new model can be used as a tool for further studies of iodine effects on ozone.
Gunter Stober, Ales Kuchar, Dimitry Pokhotelov, Huixin Liu, Han-Li Liu, Hauke Schmidt, Christoph Jacobi, Kathrin Baumgarten, Peter Brown, Diego Janches, Damian Murphy, Alexander Kozlovsky, Mark Lester, Evgenia Belova, Johan Kero, and Nicholas Mitchell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13855–13902, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13855-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13855-2021, 2021
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Little is known about the climate change of wind systems in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere at the edge of space at altitudes from 70–110 km. Meteor radars represent a well-accepted remote sensing technique to measure winds at these altitudes. Here we present a state-of-the-art climatological interhemispheric comparison using continuous and long-lasting observations from worldwide distributed meteor radars from the Arctic to the Antarctic and sophisticated general circulation models.
Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Andrea Stenke, William T. Ball, Christina Brodowsky, Gabriel Chiodo, Aryeh Feinberg, Marina Friedel, Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Thomas Peter, Jan Sedlacek, Sandro Vattioni, and Eugene Rozanov
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5525–5560, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5525-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5525-2021, 2021
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This paper features the new atmosphere–ocean–aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOLv4.0 and its validation. The model performance is evaluated against reanalysis products and observations of atmospheric circulation and trace gas distribution, with a focus on stratospheric processes. Although we identified some problems to be addressed in further model upgrades, we demonstrated that SOCOLv4.0 is already well suited for studies related to chemistry–climate–aerosol interactions.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021
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This study finds how and why five state-of-the-art global climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosols differ when simulating the aftermath of large volcanic injections as part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP). We identify and explain the consequences of significant disparities in the underlying physics and chemistry currently in some of the models, which are problems likely not unique to the models participating in this study.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Ales Kuchar, William Ball, Pavle Arsenovic, Ellis Remsberg, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kunze, David A. Plummer, Andrea Stenke, Daniel Marsh, Doug Kinnison, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, 2021
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The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model simulations and satellite observations using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. MLR analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust solar signal in both H2O and CO. The model results show a general agreement with observations reproducing a negative/positive solar signal in H2O/CO. The pattern of the solar signal varies among the considered models, reflecting some differences in the model setup.
Ales Kuchar, Petr Sacha, Roland Eichinger, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pisoft, and Harald E. Rieder
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-481-2020, 2020
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Our study focuses on the impact of topographic structures such as the Himalayas and Rocky Mountains, so-called orographic gravity-wave hotspots. These hotspots play an important role in the dynamics of the middle atmosphere, in particular in the lower stratosphere. We study intermittency and zonally asymmetric character of these hotspots and their effects on the upper stratosphere and mesosphere using a new detection method in various modeling and observational datasets.
Jessica Oehrlein, Gabriel Chiodo, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10531–10544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10531-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10531-2020, 2020
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Winter winds in the stratosphere 10–50 km above the surface impact climate at the surface. Prior studies suggest that this interaction between the stratosphere and the surface is affected by ozone. We compare two ways of including ozone in computer simulations of climate. One method is more realistic but more expensive. We find that the method of including ozone in simulations affects the surface climate when the stratospheric winds are unusually weak but not when they are unusually strong.
William T. Ball, Gabriel Chiodo, Marta Abalos, Justin Alsing, and Andrea Stenke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9737–9752, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020, 2020
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Recent lower stratospheric ozone decreases remain unexplained. We show that chemistry–climate models are not generally able to reproduce mid-latitude ozone and water vapour changes. Our analysis of observations provides evidence that climate change may be responsible for the ozone trends. While model projections suggest that extratropical ozone should recover by 2100, our study raises questions about their efficacy in simulating lower stratospheric changes in this region.
Eliane Maillard Barras, Alexander Haefele, Liliane Nguyen, Fiona Tummon, William T. Ball, Eugene V. Rozanov, Rolf Rüfenacht, Klemens Hocke, Leonie Bernet, Niklaus Kämpfer, Gerald Nedoluha, and Ian Boyd
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8453–8471, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8453-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8453-2020, 2020
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To determine the part of the variability of the long-term ozone profile trends coming from measurement timing, we estimate microwave radiometer trends for each hour of the day with a multiple linear regression model. The variation in the trend with local solar time is not significant at the 95 % confidence level either in the stratosphere or in the low mesosphere. We conclude that systematic sampling differences between instruments cannot explain significant differences in trend estimates.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Vincenzo Rizi, Marco Iarlori, Irene Cionni, Ilaria Quaglia, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando Garcia, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-François Lamarque, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Tatsuya Nagashima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David Plummer, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, 2020
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In this work we analyse the trend in ozone profiles taken at L'Aquila (Italy, 42.4° N) for seventeen years, between 2000 and 2016 and compare them against already available measured ozone trends. We try to understand and explain the observed trends at various heights in light of the simulations from seventeen different model, highlighting the contribution of changes in circulation and chemical ozone loss during this time period.
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
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Differences in methane lifetime among global models are large and poorly understood. We use a neural network method and simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative to quantify the factors influencing methane lifetime spread among models and variations over time. UV photolysis, tropospheric ozone, and nitrogen oxides drive large model differences, while the same factors plus specific humidity contribute to a decreasing trend in methane lifetime between 1980 and 2015.
Nadja Samtleben, Aleš Kuchař, Petr Šácha, Petr Pišoft, and Christoph Jacobi
Ann. Geophys., 38, 95–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-95-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-95-2020, 2020
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The additional transfer of momentum and energy induced by locally breaking gravity wave hotspots in the lower stratosphere may lead to a destabilization of the polar vortex, which is strongly dependent on the position of the hotspot. The simulations with a global circulation model show that hotspots located above Eurasia cause a total decrease in the stationary planetary wave (SPW) activity, while the impact of hotspots located in North America mostly increase the SPW activity.
Le Kuai, Kevin W. Bowman, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Makoto Deushi, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Fabien Paulot, Sarah Strode, Andrew Conley, Jean-François Lamarque, Patrick Jöckel, David A. Plummer, Luke D. Oman, Helen Worden, Susan Kulawik, David Paynter, Andrea Stenke, and Markus Kunze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 281–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-281-2020, 2020
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The tropospheric ozone increase from pre-industrial to the present day leads to a radiative forcing. The top-of-atmosphere outgoing fluxes at the ozone band are controlled by ozone, water vapor, and temperature. We demonstrate a method to attribute the models’ flux biases to these key players using satellite-constrained instantaneous radiative kernels. The largest spread between models is found in the tropics, mainly driven by ozone and then water vapor.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Sophie Szopa, Ann R. Stavert, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Virginie Marécal, Fiona M. O'Connor, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13701–13723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, 2019
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The role of hydroxyl radical changes in methane trends is debated, hindering our understanding of the methane cycle. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical may influence methane abundance in the atmosphere based on the inter-model comparison of hydroxyl radical fields and model simulations of CH4 abundance with different hydroxyl radical scenarios during 2000–2016. We show that hydroxyl radical changes could contribute up to 54 % of model-simulated methane biases.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Hella Garny, Douglas Kinnison, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Makoto Deushi, Rolando R. Garcia, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11559–11586, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, 2019
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We perform the first multi-model comparison of the impact of nudged meteorology on the stratospheric residual circulation (RC) in chemistry–climate models. Nudging meteorology does not constrain the mean strength of RC compared to free-running simulations, and despite the lack of agreement in the mean circulation, nudging tightly constrains the inter-annual variability in the tropical upward mass flux in the lower stratosphere. In summary, nudging strongly affects the representation of RC.
Aryeh Feinberg, Timofei Sukhodolov, Bei-Ping Luo, Eugene Rozanov, Lenny H. E. Winkel, Thomas Peter, and Andrea Stenke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3863–3887, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3863-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3863-2019, 2019
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We have improved several aspects of atmospheric sulfur cycling in SOCOL-AER, an aerosol–chemistry–climate model. The newly implemented features in SOCOL-AERv2 include interactive deposition schemes, improved sulfur mass conservation, and expanded tropospheric chemistry. SOCOL-AERv2 shows better agreement with stratospheric aerosol observations and sulfur deposition networks compared to SOCOL-AERv1. SOCOL-AERv2 can be used to study impacts of sulfate aerosol on climate, chemistry, and ecosystems.
Kévin Lamy, Thierry Portafaix, Béatrice Josse, Colette Brogniez, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Hassan Bencherif, Laura Revell, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Ben Liley, Virginie Marecal, Olaf Morgenstern, Andrea Stenke, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Neil Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Glauco Di Genova, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rong-Ming Hu, Douglas Kinnison, Michael Kotkamp, Richard McKenzie, Martine Michou, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10087–10110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, 2019
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In this study, we simulate the ultraviolet radiation evolution during the 21st century on Earth's surface using the output from several numerical models which participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. We present four possible futures which depend on greenhouse gases emissions. The role of ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases and aerosols are investigated. Our results emphasize the important role of aerosols for future ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere.
Pavle Arsenovic, Alessandro Damiani, Eugene Rozanov, Bernd Funke, Andrea Stenke, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9485–9494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9485-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9485-2019, 2019
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Low-energy electrons (LEE) are the dominant source of odd nitrogen, which destroys ozone, in the mesosphere and stratosphere in polar winter in the geomagnetically active periods. However, the observed stratospheric ozone anomalies can be reproduced only when accounting for both low- and middle-range energy electrons (MEE) in the chemistry-climate model. Ozone changes may induce further dynamical and thermal changes in the atmosphere. We recommend including both LEE and MEE in climate models.
Nadja Samtleben, Christoph Jacobi, Petr Pišoft, Petr Šácha, and Aleš Kuchař
Ann. Geophys., 37, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-507-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-507-2019, 2019
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Simulations of locally breaking gravity wave hot spots in the stratosphere show a suppression of wave propagation at midlatitudes, which is partly compensated for by additional wave propagation through the polar region. This leads to a displacement of the polar vortex towards lower latitudes. The effect is highly dependent on the position of the artificial gravity wave forcing. It is strongest (weakest) for hot spots at lower to middle latitudes (higher latitudes).
Roland Eichinger, Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Petr Šácha, Thomas Birner, Harald Bönisch, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Eugene Rozanov, Laura Revell, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 921–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, 2019
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To shed more light upon the changes in stratospheric circulation in the 21st century, climate projection simulations of 10 state-of-the-art global climate models, spanning from 1960 to 2100, are analyzed. The study shows that in addition to changes in transport, mixing also plays an important role in stratospheric circulation and that the properties of mixing vary over time. Furthermore, the influence of mixing is quantified and a dynamical framework is provided to understand the changes.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Fiona Tummon, Aryeh Feinberg, Eugene Rozanov, Thomas Peter, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Robyn Schofield, Kane Stone, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16155–16172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, 2018
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Global models such as those participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) consistently simulate biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We performed an advanced statistical analysis with one of the CCMI models to understand the cause of the bias. We found that emissions of ozone precursor gases are the dominant driver of the bias, implying either that the emissions are too large, or that the way in which the model handles emissions needs to be improved.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Hauke Schmidt, Rémi Thiéblemont, Lon Hood, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, Daniel R. Marsh, Martine Michou, David Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Yousuke Yamashita, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11323–11343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, 2018
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The 11-year solar cycle is an important driver of climate variability. Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation affect atmospheric ozone, which in turn influences atmospheric temperatures. Constraining the impact of the solar cycle on ozone is therefore important for understanding climate variability. This study examines the representation of the solar influence on ozone in numerical models used to simulate past and future climate. We highlight important differences among model datasets.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Ulrike Langematz, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Steven C. Hardiman, Patrick Jöckel, Andrew Klekociuk, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018
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Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
Timofei Sukhodolov, Jian-Xiong Sheng, Aryeh Feinberg, Bei-Ping Luo, Thomas Peter, Laura Revell, Andrea Stenke, Debra K. Weisenstein, and Eugene Rozanov
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2633–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2633-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2633-2018, 2018
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The Pinatubo eruption in 1991 is the strongest directly observed volcanic event. In a series of experiments, we simulate its influence on the stratospheric aerosol layer using a state-of-the-art aerosol–chemistry–climate model, SOCOL-AERv1.0, and compare our results to observations. We show that SOCOL-AER reproduces the most important atmospheric effects and can therefore be used to study the climate effects of future volcanic eruptions and geoengineering by artificial sulfate aerosol.
Clara Orbe, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, John F. Scinocca, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Patrick Jöckel, Luke D. Oman, Susan E. Strahan, Makoto Deushi, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Kohei Yoshida, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Andreas Stenke, Laura Revell, Timofei Sukhodolov, Eugene Rozanov, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7217–7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, 2018
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In this study we compare a few atmospheric transport properties among several numerical models that are used to study the influence of atmospheric chemistry on climate. We show that there are large differences among models in terms of the timescales that connect the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, where greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances are emitted, to the Southern Hemisphere. Our results may have important implications for how models represent atmospheric composition.
Simone Dietmüller, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Birner, Harald Boenisch, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Shibata Kiyotaka, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, 2018
Pavle Arsenovic, Eugene Rozanov, Julien Anet, Andrea Stenke, Werner Schmutz, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3469–3483, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3469-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3469-2018, 2018
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Global warming will persist in the 21st century, even if the solar activity undergoes an unusually strong and long decline. Decreased ozone production caused by reduction of solar activity and change of atmospheric dynamics due to the global warming might result in further thinning of the tropical ozone layer. Globally, total ozone would not recover to the pre-ozone hole values as long as the decline of solar activity lasts. This may let more ultra-violet radiation reach the Earth's surface.
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
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We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
William T. Ball, Justin Alsing, Daniel J. Mortlock, Johannes Staehelin, Joanna D. Haigh, Thomas Peter, Fiona Tummon, Rene Stübi, Andrea Stenke, John Anderson, Adam Bourassa, Sean M. Davis, Doug Degenstein, Stacey Frith, Lucien Froidevaux, Chris Roth, Viktoria Sofieva, Ray Wang, Jeannette Wild, Pengfei Yu, Jerald R. Ziemke, and Eugene V. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1379–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018, 2018
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Using a robust analysis, with artefact-corrected ozone data, we confirm upper stratospheric ozone is recovering following the Montreal Protocol, but that lower stratospheric ozone (50° S–50° N) has continued to decrease since 1998, and the ozone layer as a whole (60° S–60° N) may be lower today than in 1998. No change in total column ozone may be due to increasing tropospheric ozone. State-of-the-art models do not reproduce lower stratospheric ozone decreases.
Olaf Morgenstern, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando R. Garcia, Kengo Sudo, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Luke D. Oman, Michael E. Manyin, Guang Zeng, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Laura E. Revell, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Glauco Di Genova, Daniele Visioni, Sandip S. Dhomse, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1091–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, 2018
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We assess how ozone as simulated by a group of chemistry–climate models responds to variations in man-made climate gases and ozone-depleting substances. We find some agreement, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere, but also considerable disagreement elsewhere. Such disagreement affects the reliability of future ozone projections based on these models, and also constitutes a source of uncertainty in climate projections using prescribed ozone derived from these simulations.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Beiping Luo, Stefanie Kremser, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13139–13150, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13139-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13139-2017, 2017
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Compiling stratospheric aerosol data sets after a major volcanic eruption is difficult as the stratosphere becomes too optically opaque for satellite instruments to measure accurately. We performed ensemble chemistry–climate model simulations with two stratospheric aerosol data sets compiled for two international modelling activities and compared the simulated volcanic aerosol-induced effects from the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption on tropical stratospheric temperature and ozone with observations.
William T. Ball, Justin Alsing, Daniel J. Mortlock, Eugene V. Rozanov, Fiona Tummon, and Joanna D. Haigh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12269–12302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12269-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12269-2017, 2017
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Several ozone composites show different decadal trends, even in composites built with the same data. We remove artefacts affecting trend analysis with a new method (BASIC) and construct an ozone composite, with uncertainties. We find a significant ozone recovery since 1998 in the midlatitude upper stratosphere, with no hemispheric difference. We recommend using a similar approach to construct a composite based on the original instrument data to improve stratospheric ozone trend estimates.
Dietmar J. Baumgartner, Werner Pötzi, Heinrich Freislich, Heinz Strutzmann, Astrid M. Veronig, and Harald E. Rieder
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 1181–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-1181-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-1181-2017, 2017
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In this work we present KSO-STREAMS (KSO-SunTRackEr Accuracy Monitoring System), a platform-independent, fully automated, and cost-effective system to evaluate the pointing accuracy of Sun-tracking devices as well as its application at the Kanzelhöhe Observatory (KSO) Austrian radiation monitoring network (ARAD) site and to the results from a 15-week evaluating period.
Sandro M. Oswald, Helga Pietsch, Dietmar J. Baumgartner, Philipp Weihs, and Harald E. Rieder
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 1169–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-1169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-1169-2017, 2017
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This study investigates effects of precipitation events on the accuracy of solar radiation measurements. To quantify pyranometer responses to precipitation, a series of controlled laboratory experiments and two field campaigns were performed. The results indicate that precipitation significantly affects the thermal environment of the instruments and thus their stability. A high accuracy of solar radiation measurements is important to improve the prediction of Earth's climate change.
Bernd Funke, William Ball, Stefan Bender, Angela Gardini, V. Lynn Harvey, Alyn Lambert, Manuel López-Puertas, Daniel R. Marsh, Katharina Meraner, Holger Nieder, Sanna-Mari Päivärinta, Kristell Pérot, Cora E. Randall, Thomas Reddmann, Eugene Rozanov, Hauke Schmidt, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriele P. Stiller, Natalia D. Tsvetkova, Pekka T. Verronen, Stefan Versick, Thomas von Clarmann, Kaley A. Walker, and Vladimir Yushkov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3573–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3573-2017, 2017
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Simulations from eight atmospheric models have been compared to tracer and temperature observations from seven satellite instruments in order to evaluate the energetic particle indirect effect (EPP IE) during the perturbed northern hemispheric (NH) winter 2008/2009. Models are capable to reproduce the EPP IE in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The results emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events.
Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I. Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando R. Garcia, Steven C. Hardiman, Larry W. Horowitz, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Michael E. Manyin, Marion Marchand, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, 2017
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We present a review of the make-up of 20 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). In comparison to earlier such activities, most of these models comprise a whole-atmosphere chemistry, and several of them include an interactive ocean module. This makes them suitable for studying the interactions of tropospheric air quality, stratospheric ozone, and climate. The paper lays the foundation for other studies using the CCMI simulations for scientific analysis.
William T. Ball, Aleš Kuchař, Eugene V. Rozanov, Johannes Staehelin, Fiona Tummon, Anne K. Smith, Timofei Sukhodolov, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Ancelin Coulon, Werner Schmutz, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15485–15500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016, 2016
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We find monthly, mid-latitude temperature changes above 40 km are related to ozone and temperature variations throughout the middle atmosphere. We develop an index to represent this atmospheric variability. In statistical analysis, the index can account for up to 60 % of variability in tropical temperature and ozone above 27 km. The uncertainties can be reduced by up to 35 % and 20 % in temperature and ozone, respectively. This index is an important tool to quantify current and future ozone recovery.
Stefan Brönnimann, Abdul Malik, Alexander Stickler, Martin Wegmann, Christoph C. Raible, Stefan Muthers, Julien Anet, Eugene Rozanov, and Werner Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15529–15543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, 2016
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The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a wind oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere. Effects on climate have been found, which is relevant for seasonal forecasts. However, up to now only relatively short records were available, and even within these the climate imprints were intermittent. Here we analyze a 108-year long reconstruction as well as four 405-year long simulations. We confirm most of the claimed QBO effects on climate, but they are small, which explains apparently variable effects.
Stefan Muthers, Christoph C. Raible, Eugene Rozanov, and Thomas F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 877–892, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, 2016
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important oceanic circulation system which transports large amounts of heat from the tropics to the north. This circulation is strengthened when less solar irradiance reaches the Earth, e.g. due to reduced solar activity or geoengineering techniques. In climate models, however, this response is overestimated when chemistry–climate interactions and the following shift in the atmospheric circulation systems are not considered.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Eugene Rozanov, William Ball, Stefan Lossow, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13067–13080, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13067-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13067-2016, 2016
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Water vapour in the stratosphere plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and the Earth's radiative balance. We have analysed trends in stratospheric water vapour through the 21st century as simulated by a coupled chemistry–climate model following a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We have also quantified the contribution that methane oxidation in the stratosphere makes to projected water vapour trends.
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
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Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
Marc Olefs, Dietmar J. Baumgartner, Friedrich Obleitner, Christoph Bichler, Ulrich Foelsche, Helga Pietsch, Harald E. Rieder, Philipp Weihs, Florian Geyer, Thomas Haiden, and Wolfgang Schöner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 1513–1531, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1513-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1513-2016, 2016
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We present the Austrian RADiation monitoring network (ARAD) that has been established to advance national climate monitoring and to support satellite retrieval, atmospheric modeling and solar energy techniques' development. Measurements cover the downwelling solar and thermal infrared radiation using instruments according to Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) standards. The paper outlines the aims and scopes of ARAD, its measurement and calibration standards, methods and strategies.
Christopher R. Hoyle, Clare S. Webster, Harald E. Rieder, Athanasios Nenes, Emanuel Hammer, Erik Herrmann, Martin Gysel, Nicolas Bukowiecki, Ernest Weingartner, Martin Steinbacher, and Urs Baltensperger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4043–4061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4043-2016, 2016
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A simple statistical model to predict the number of aerosols which activate to form cloud droplets in warm clouds has been established, based on regression analysis of data from the high-altitude site Jungfraujoch. It is found that cloud droplet formation at the Jungfraujoch is predominantly controlled by the number concentration of aerosol particles. A statistical model based on only the number of particles larger than 80nm can explain 79 % of the observed variance in droplet numbers.
P. Šácha, A. Kuchař, C. Jacobi, and P. Pišoft
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13097–13112, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13097-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13097-2015, 2015
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In this study, we present a discovery of an internal gravity wave activity and breaking hotspot collocated with an area of anomalously low annual cycle amplitude and specific dynamics in the stratosphere over the Northeastern Pacific/Eastern Asia coastal region. The reasons why this particular IGW activity hotspot was not discovered before nor the specific dynamics of this region pointed out are discussed together with possible consequences on the middle atmospheric dynamics and transport.
J.-X. Sheng, D. K. Weisenstein, B.-P. Luo, E. Rozanov, F. Arfeuille, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11501–11512, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11501-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11501-2015, 2015
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We have conducted a perturbed parameter model ensemble to investigate Mt.
Pinatubo's 1991 initial sulfur mass emission. Our results suggest that (a) the initial mass loading of the Pinatubo eruption is ~14 Mt of SO2; (b) the injection vertical distribution is strongly skewed towards the lower stratosphere, leading to a peak mass sulfur injection at 18-21 km; (c) the injection magnitude and height affect early southward transport of the volcanic cloud observed by SAGE II.
S. Muthers, F. Arfeuille, C. C. Raible, and E. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11461–11476, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, 2015
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After volcanic eruptions different radiative and chemical processes take place in the stratosphere which perturb the ozone layer and cause pronounced dynamical changes. In idealized chemistry-climate model simulations the importance of these processes and the modulating role of the climate state is analysed. The chemical effect strongly differs between a preindustrial and present-day climate, but the effect on the dynamics is weak. Radiative processes dominate the dynamics in all climate states.
A. Kuchar, P. Sacha, J. Miksovsky, and P. Pisoft
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6879–6895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6879-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6879-2015, 2015
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We have studied the solar cycle manifestation in the latest generation of the reanalysed data sets by the means of both linear and nonlinear attribution analyses. The study is supplemented by the discussion of the dynamical implications.
L. E. Revell, F. Tummon, A. Stenke, T. Sukhodolov, A. Coulon, E. Rozanov, H. Garny, V. Grewe, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5887–5902, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5887-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5887-2015, 2015
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We have examined the effects of ozone precursor emissions and climate change on the tropospheric ozone budget. Under RCP 6.0, ozone in the future is governed primarily by changes in nitrogen oxides (NOx). Methane is also important, and induces an increase in tropospheric ozone that is approximately one-third of that caused by NOx. This study highlights the critical role that emission policies globally have to play in determining tropospheric ozone evolution through the 21st century.
T. Sukhodolov, E. Rozanov, A. I. Shapiro, J. Anet, C. Cagnazzo, T. Peter, and W. Schmutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2859–2866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2859-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2859-2014, 2014
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The performance of the main generations of the ECHAM shortwave radiation schemes is analysed in terms of the representation of the solar signal in the heating rates. The way to correct missing or underrepresented spectral intervals in the solar signal in the heating rates is suggested using the example of ECHAM6 and six-band ECHAM5 schemes. The suggested method is computationally fast and suitable for any other radiation scheme.
S. Muthers, J. G. Anet, A. Stenke, C. C. Raible, E. Rozanov, S. Brönnimann, T. Peter, F. X. Arfeuille, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2157–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, 2014
M. Kozubek, E. Rozanov, and P. Krizan
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23891-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23891-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
F. Arfeuille, D. Weisenstein, H. Mack, E. Rozanov, T. Peter, and S. Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 10, 359–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-359-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-359-2014, 2014
F. Arfeuille, B. P. Luo, P. Heckendorn, D. Weisenstein, J. X. Sheng, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, S. Brönnimann, L. W. Thomason, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11221–11234, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11221-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11221-2013, 2013
A. Stenke, C. R. Hoyle, B. Luo, E. Rozanov, J. Gröbner, L. Maag, S. Brönnimann, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9713–9729, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9713-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9713-2013, 2013
S. Brönnimann, J. Bhend, J. Franke, S. Flückiger, A. M. Fischer, R. Bleisch, G. Bodeker, B. Hassler, E. Rozanov, and M. Schraner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9623–9639, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9623-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9623-2013, 2013
A. Stenke, M. Schraner, E. Rozanov, T. Egorova, B. Luo, and T. Peter
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1407–1427, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1407-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1407-2013, 2013
Y. Brugnara, S. Brönnimann, J. Luterbacher, and E. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6275–6288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6275-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6275-2013, 2013
V. Zubov, E. Rozanov, T. Egorova, I. Karol, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4697–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4697-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4697-2013, 2013
I. Ermolli, K. Matthes, T. Dudok de Wit, N. A. Krivova, K. Tourpali, M. Weber, Y. C. Unruh, L. Gray, U. Langematz, P. Pilewskie, E. Rozanov, W. Schmutz, A. Shapiro, S. K. Solanki, and T. N. Woods
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3945–3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
Influence of atmospheric waves and deep convection on water vapour in the equatorial lower stratosphere seen from long-duration balloon measurements
Chemical ozone loss and chlorine activation in the Antarctic winters of 2013–2020
Effects of Arctic ozone on the stratospheric spring onset and its surface impact
Three-dimensional simulation of stratospheric gravitational separation using the NIES global atmospheric tracer transport model
Retrieving the age of air spectrum from tracers: principle and method
Reanalysis intercomparisons of stratospheric polar processing diagnostics
An upper-branch Brewer–Dobson circulation index for attribution of stratospheric variability and improved ozone and temperature trend analysis
Long-range transport pathways of tropospheric source gases originating in Asia into the northern lower stratosphere during the Asian monsoon season 2012
Interannual variability of the boreal summer tropical UTLS in observations and CCMVal-2 simulations
A potential vorticity-based determination of the transport barrier in the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone
Transport pathways of peroxyacetyl nitrate in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from different monsoon systems during the summer monsoon season
Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum
Drivers of hemispheric differences in return dates of mid-latitude stratospheric ozone to historical levels
Comparison of three vertically resolved ozone data sets: climatology, trends and radiative forcings
A model study of the impact of source gas changes on the stratosphere for 1850–2100
Sullivan Carbone, Emmanuel D. Riviere, Mélanie Ghysels, Jérémie Burgalat, Georges Durry, Nadir Amarouche, Aurélien Podglajen, and Albert Hertzog
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3249, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3249, 2024
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During the two first Strateole 2 campaigns, instruments have flown under super pressure balloons between 18 and 20 km for several weeks at the equator and performed in situ measurements of water vapor. The present article exposes the methodology used to quantify the modulation of water vapor by atmospheric waves and deep convective cases. This methodology allows to put to the fore the influence of atmospheric waves and extremely deep convection on the observed water vapor anomalies.
Raina Roy, Pankaj Kumar, Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath, and Franck Lefevre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2377–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2377-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2377-2024, 2024
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We assess the interannual variability of ozone loss and chlorine activation in the Antarctic winters of 2013–2020. The analysis shows significant interannual variability in the Antarctic ozone during this period as compared to the previous decade (2000–2010). Dynamics and chemistry of the winters play their respective roles in the ozone loss process. The winter of 2019 is an example of favourable chemistry helping in the large loss of ozone, though the dynamical conditions were unfavourable.
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Andrea Stenke, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13997–14017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13997-2022, 2022
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In spring, winds the Arctic stratosphere change direction – an event called final stratospheric warming (FSW). Here, we examine whether the interannual variability in Arctic stratospheric ozone impacts the timing of the FSW. We find that Arctic ozone shifts the FSW to earlier and later dates in years with high and low ozone via the absorption of UV light. The modulation of the FSW by ozone has consequences for surface climate in ozone-rich years, which may result in better seasonal predictions.
Dmitry Belikov, Satoshi Sugawara, Shigeyuki Ishidoya, Fumio Hasebe, Shamil Maksyutov, Shuji Aoki, Shinji Morimoto, and Takakiyo Nakazawa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5349–5361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5349-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5349-2019, 2019
Aurélien Podglajen and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1767–1783, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1767-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1767-2019, 2019
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The age spectrum (distribution of transit times) provides a compact description of transport from the surface to a given point in the atmosphere. It also determines the surface-emitted tracer content of an air parcel. We propose a method to invert this relation in order to retrieve age spectra from tracer concentrations and demonstrate its feasibility in idealized and model setups. Applied to observations, the approach might help to better constrain atmospheric transport timescales.
Zachary D. Lawrence, Gloria L. Manney, and Krzysztof Wargan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13547–13579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13547-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13547-2018, 2018
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Stratospheric polar processing diagnostics are compared in both hemispheres for four recent high-resolution reanalyses. Temperature-based diagnostics show largest differences before 1999 in the Antarctic; agreement becomes much better thereafter, when the reanalysis inputs include higher-resolution satellite radiances. Recommendations for usage of reanalysis data in research studies are given based on the differences among the reanalyses, which can be substantial and difficult to interpret.
William T. Ball, Aleš Kuchař, Eugene V. Rozanov, Johannes Staehelin, Fiona Tummon, Anne K. Smith, Timofei Sukhodolov, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Ancelin Coulon, Werner Schmutz, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15485–15500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016, 2016
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We find monthly, mid-latitude temperature changes above 40 km are related to ozone and temperature variations throughout the middle atmosphere. We develop an index to represent this atmospheric variability. In statistical analysis, the index can account for up to 60 % of variability in tropical temperature and ozone above 27 km. The uncertainties can be reduced by up to 35 % and 20 % in temperature and ozone, respectively. This index is an important tool to quantify current and future ozone recovery.
Bärbel Vogel, Gebhard Günther, Rolf Müller, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Armin Afchine, Heiko Bozem, Peter Hoor, Martina Krämer, Stefan Müller, Martin Riese, Christian Rolf, Nicole Spelten, Gabriele P. Stiller, Jörn Ungermann, and Andreas Zahn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15301–15325, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15301-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15301-2016, 2016
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The identification of transport pathways from the Asian monsoon anticyclone into the lower stratosphere is unclear. Global simulations with the CLaMS model demonstrate that source regions in Asia and in the Pacific Ocean have a significant impact on the chemical composition of the lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere by flooding the extratropical lower stratosphere with young moist air masses. Two main horizontal transport pathways from the Asian monsoon anticyclone are identified.
Markus Kunze, Peter Braesicke, Ulrike Langematz, and Gabriele Stiller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8695–8714, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8695-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8695-2016, 2016
F. Ploeger, C. Gottschling, S. Griessbach, J.-U. Grooß, G. Guenther, P. Konopka, R. Müller, M. Riese, F. Stroh, M. Tao, J. Ungermann, B. Vogel, and M. von Hobe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13145–13159, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13145-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13145-2015, 2015
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The Asian summer monsoon provides an important pathway of tropospheric source gases and pollution into the lower stratosphere. This transport is characterized by deep convection and steady upwelling, combined with confinement inside a large-scale anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. In this paper, we show that a barrier to horizontal transport in the monsoon can be determined from a local maximum in the gradient of potential vorticity.
S. Fadnavis, K. Semeniuk, M. G. Schultz, M. Kiefer, A. Mahajan, L. Pozzoli, and S. Sonbawane
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11477–11499, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11477-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11477-2015, 2015
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The model and MIPAS satellite data show that there are three regions which contribute substantial pollution to the south Asian UTLS: the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), the North American monsoon (NAM) and the West African monsoon (WAM). However, penetration due to ASM convection reaches deeper into the UTLS compared to NAM and WAM outflow. Simulations show that westerly winds drive North American and European pollutants eastward where they can become part of the ASM and lifted to LS.
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, T. Peter, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10951–10967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, 2013
H. Garny, G. E. Bodeker, D. Smale, M. Dameris, and V. Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7279–7300, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7279-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7279-2013, 2013
B. Hassler, P. J. Young, R. W. Portmann, G. E. Bodeker, J. S. Daniel, K. H. Rosenlof, and S. Solomon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5533–5550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5533-2013, 2013
E. L. Fleming, C. H. Jackman, R. S. Stolarski, and A. R. Douglass
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 8515–8541, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-8515-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-8515-2011, 2011
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Executive editor
The explosive Hunga Tonga eruption in 2022 had several characteristics that are unique in the recent observational record. Its effects on the atmosphere are of great scientific interest and have included rapidly propagating patterns of Lamb and gravity waves and long-lived anomalies in stratospheric water vapour. This modelling study demonstrates how, through a coupled sequence of chemical, radiative and dynamical mechanisms, the additional water vapour in the tropical upper stratosphere is likely to have had a significant effect on the wintertime circulation of the stratosphere and hence the troposphere in Northern Hemisphere mid- and high latitudes. These results on the fascinating Hunga Tonga event have wider relevance to perturbations of the climate system where the initial impact is stratospheric but important secondary effects are felt elsewhere, including at the surface.
The explosive Hunga Tonga eruption in 2022 had several characteristics that are unique in the...
Short summary
In January 2022, the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano erupted, sending massive amounts of water vapour into the atmosphere. This event had a significant impact on stratospheric and lower-mesospheric chemical composition. Two years later, stratospheric conditions were disturbed during so-called sudden stratospheric warmings. Here we simulate a novel pathway by which this water-rich eruption may have contributed to conditions during these events and consequently impacted the surface climate.
In January 2022, the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano erupted, sending massive amounts...
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